本文首发于"见闻VIP"作者乐鸣，为见闻付费会员文章，现作为粉丝福利免费试读，欢迎点击阅读原文订阅"见闻VIP"。 欧洲最大资产管理公司、管理资产规模达2.8万亿欧元 （约23万亿元） 的法国东方汇理资产管理公司（Amundi）发出了一个震耳欲聋的信号： 逃离美元资产。 该公司正在 减少对美元资产的投资 ，将 投资重心转向欧洲和新兴市场。 且警告称，如果美国经济政策维持现状，美元将继续走弱。 作为典型的稳健型机构投资者，东方汇理通常不会进行激进的资产配置调整。 此次公开宣布减少美元敞口，并将重心转向欧洲和新兴市场，其背后的深层逻辑究竟是什么？ 东方汇理的角度 首先，我们需要从东方汇理的角度来看这一个问题。 东方汇理作为稳健型投资者， 最厌恶的是不可量化的尾部风险和资产相关性的失效 ，而2026年的美国市场，恰恰呈现出这两种特征的危险趋同。 长期以来，美国国债被视为全球无风险资产的锚，而美元则是对冲地缘政治风险的终极避风港。 然而，东方汇理的首席投资官Vincent Mortier及其研究团队的分析表明，这一假设正在发生质变。 根据东方汇理的预测，2026年美国实际GDP增速将显著放缓至1.6%，远低于2023 ...

以下文章来源于硬AI ，作者专注科技产研的 硬AI . AI时代，快人一步~ 凌晨三点，看到影视飓风Tim更新的字节即梦Seedance 2.0视频，我彻底睡不着了。 这是过去一年多来，AI的进步第一次让我感到如此兴奋。或者说，战栗。 Tim在视频里那种抑制不住的兴奋，我感同身受。 以前我们认为运镜是物理世界的特权，滑轨、摇臂、无人机、斯坦尼康。这些设备很贵，操作这些设备的人更贵。 Seedance2.0把这些都变成了参数，视频里演示的图生视频，一张主角的照片+一张场景的照片。 它能让这个主角，在这个场景里，按照你指定的运镜方式动起来，多主体一致性得到了惊人的保持。 很多人都在等视频领域的GPT-3.5时刻，大家觉得那还要两三年。Seedance 2.0告诉我们，它已经近在眼前了。 它的强悍之处，在于它把运镜、分镜、音画匹配，全部AI化了，并且做到很棒。它理解了光影、透视、镜头语言。 Tim在视频里展示的， 是控制，是AI对物理世界的完美复刻。 AI的逻辑正在变得清晰而简单， AI正在疯狂压缩我们的工作流 ：从导演、拍摄到剪辑、配乐；从产品经理、开发到测试、交付。 所有的中间环节都在逐步压缩。 这篇文章，我想 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of Trump's nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair, focusing on his proposal for a new agreement between the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury to reshape their relationship, reminiscent of the historic 1951 agreement [1][4]. Group 1: Proposed Agreement and Historical Context - Waller's proposal aims to emulate the 1951 agreement, which significantly limited the Federal Reserve's footprint in the bond market and established its autonomy in monetary policy [5]. - The new agreement is expected to clarify the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size and align it with the Treasury's debt issuance plans [2][6]. Group 2: Concerns and Market Reactions - Treasury Secretary Yellen shares skepticism about prolonged quantitative easing (QE), advocating for its use only in emergencies and with government coordination [3][7]. - The market is debating whether this proposal represents a minor bureaucratic adjustment or a significant restructuring of the Federal Reserve's over $6 trillion securities portfolio, which could lead to increased volatility in the $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market [3][8]. Group 3: Asset Composition Shift - A substantial aspect of the proposed agreement may involve a shift in the Federal Reserve's asset holdings from medium- and long-term securities to Treasury bills with maturities of 12 months or less [10][13]. - This transition could allow the Treasury to reduce the issuance of notes and bonds, potentially stabilizing borrowing costs [11][12]. Group 4: Risks and Independence Concerns - There are warnings that a formal agreement linking the Federal Reserve's balance sheet operations to Treasury financing could undermine the Fed's independence and lead to concerns about inflation and the attractiveness of U.S. assets [15][16]. - Some experts express skepticism about the feasibility of a formal agreement, citing potential obstacles and the risk of diminishing the Federal Reserve's autonomy [18][19].

审慎的政策路径与时间表 贝森特明确表示，沃什将是一位非常独立的美联储主席，关于资产负债表的具体操作将完全由美联储决定。但他同时给出了较为明确的预期管理，即不应期待 任何快速的行动。 贝森特指出，如果美联储决定采取所谓的"充裕（储备）机制"政策，这将从结构上要求央行维持较大规模的资产负债表。基于此逻辑， 他推测美联储决策者可 能会选择暂时按兵不动，"至少花一年时间"来审视和规划未来的路径。 这一时间表的提出，为投资者评估未来流动性环境提供了一个较长的缓冲期。 美联储资产负债表的演变 美国财政部长贝森特周日表示， 即便是在此前批评央行债券购买计划的沃什被提名美联储主席的情况下，他不认为美联储会迅速采取行动缩减资产负债表。 据报道，贝森特在福克斯新闻频道的"周日早间期货"节目中指出， 美联储可能需要长达一年的时间来对其资产负债表作出决定。 这一表态为市场提供了关键的政策预期指引，暗示货币当局在资产负债表管理上将采取审慎和观望的态度。 贝森特强调， 资产负债表的调整取决于美联储自身的意愿，如果转向"充裕（储备）机制"政策，实际上需要维持较大的资产负债表规模。 他预计美联储"可能 会先退一步，至少花一年时间来决定他们想 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of OpenClaw signifies a pivotal moment for AI Agents, suggesting that the technology is on the verge of mainstream adoption despite its complexity for the general public [2][3][4]. Group 1: OpenClaw's Impact - OpenClaw has rapidly gained popularity, demonstrating that skilled users can create powerful AI agents at a low cost, igniting excitement in Silicon Valley [3][5]. - The success of OpenClaw has prompted competitors to accelerate their product launches, creating a "wild ecosystem" around this technology [8]. - The platform Moltbook, an AI agent social network, quickly amassed over 220,000 posts and 6.2 million comments, showcasing the rapid engagement generated by OpenClaw [9]. Group 2: AI Agent Capabilities - AI Agents like OpenClaw can autonomously perform tasks such as coding, file creation, and browser control, operating without human intervention [6][14]. - Different AI models impart distinct "personalities" to agents, leading to unique behaviors and interactions among them [15][16]. - The collaborative functioning of multiple AI agents has led to the development of their own jargon and principles, indicating a form of self-evolution [16][17]. Group 3: Future of the Internet - The evolution of AI agents is reshaping the understanding of the internet, with predictions that future social media will be dominated by agents learning from each other [18]. - The challenge of distinguishing between human users and AI agents is expected to become critical for maintaining order in the digital space [18]. - New tools like OneMolt are being developed to verify the identity of agents, highlighting the need for mechanisms to ensure the integrity of online interactions [18]. Group 4: Personal AI Era - Despite concerns about cybersecurity, the founder of OpenClaw remains optimistic, experiencing significant recognition and interest from venture capitalists [20][21]. - The sentiment in Silicon Valley reflects a strong belief that the personal AI era is upon us, with expectations for significant advancements in the coming year [21].

美股本周剧烈震荡，市场的裂缝越来越清楚。 本周早些时候，市场市值一度蒸发超过1.5万亿美元，逼迫交易员重新掂量几个原本被默认的前提： 美国经济还能不能撑起又一年两位数的涨幅？AI承诺的效 率提升，会不会反过来挤压一批现有公司的生存空间？散户的交易热情是否把一些本该"避险"的东西炒成了高波动品种？ 这次受冲击的不止软件股。小盘股、贵金属矿企、数字资产相关公司、专业服务公司，几乎都在同一周里露出了弱点。其中软件板块的波动最吓人，以大型科 技股为主的动量股，也出现了自疫情以来最重的一次单日下挫。 不确定性还在往外扩散。 Horizon Investments研究与量化策略主管Mike Dickson说："投资者一紧张，全球市场里那些估值和仓位被拉到最满的地方，往往最 先疼。"即便随后出现反弹，他也提醒，这类"大跌后的反抽"经常发生在压力并未解除的阶段。 Hedge Fund Telemetry LLC创始人Thomas Thornton表示： 市场到处都是坑，有些坑正在变成特定资产和板块的陷阱。 小盘股遭遇双重打击 今年年初，投资者从估值过高的科技股转向受益于经济增长回升和利率下降的公司，小盘股是主要目标。这一押注 ...

在经历了数月的单边上扬与狂热追逐后，全球金属市场似乎撞上了"天花板"。 面对近期价格的剧烈波动，华尔街顶级投行摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）在新近发布的技术策略报告中发出明确信号： 金、银、铜等主要金属品种在未来几周都 将进入"盘整期"。 然而， 这并非牛市的终结 。在摩根大通全球市场策略团队分析师Jason Hunter看来， 当前的调整是长期上涨趋势中的必要休整。 他表示，对于精明的交易者而言，关键的博弈点在于"分化"： 相比于黄金典型的"冲高回落"形态，基本金属（尤其是铜）得益于全球制造业周期的支撑，其基 本面逻辑更为坚实，预计将在二季度先于黄金开启反弹。 铜的"预期差"：PMI数据背后的真相 黄金：从"抛物线"到"宽幅震荡" "我们认为近期金价的走势，是典型的短期冲高回落反转，而非长期涨势的终结阶段。"摩根大通技术策略师Jason Hunter在报告中写道。 Hunter表示，技术图表显示，黄金价格在经历了抛物线式的上涨后，动能已出现明显的衰竭迹象。他预测，金价将在未来数周甚至数月内形成一个宽幅震荡 的"持有模式"（Holding pattern）。在此期间，5000美元关口及5100-5150美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The narrative around AI is shifting from "software eating the world" to "hardware being constrained by the world," highlighting the political and physical limitations facing the expansion of data centers in the U.S. [2] Group 1: Political Environment - New York has proposed a bill to pause the construction and operation of new data centers for at least three years, marking it as the sixth state to consider such a measure [3] - There is a rare bipartisan agreement between Senator Bernie Sanders and Governor Ron DeSantis on the need to slow down the rapid increase of data centers due to public concerns over their impact [3][4] - DeSantis has shifted his stance from supporting tax incentives for data centers to advocating for legislation that requires these centers to fully pay for their water and electricity costs [4] Group 2: Financial Implications - The anticipated capital expenditure of approximately $600 billion by 2026 is now under scrutiny due to political and physical constraints [6] - Major tech companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google, plan to spend $670 billion on AI infrastructure this year, which is a significant investment [8] - Amazon alone is expected to increase its capital expenditure by nearly 60% to $200 billion this year [9] Group 3: Energy Demand and Infrastructure - Data centers' energy demand is projected to double by 2035, increasing from 34.7 GW in 2024 to 106 GW, equivalent to the electricity consumption of 80 million households [11] - In Texas, the ERCOT has proposed a review of approximately 8.2 GW of power consumption projects, which could significantly impact previously approved projects [12] - The uncertainty surrounding energy supply is jeopardizing the expansion plans of tech giants, as the inability to connect to the grid could prevent the realization of the $670 billion budget [12] Group 4: Market Reactions - The financial market has reacted sharply to the risk of capital expenditures not being realized, leading to significant sell-offs in tech stocks [13] - Independent power producers (IPPs) and nuclear power stocks have also seen declines, as the market realizes that without grid expansion, new power demands cannot be met [14] - There is a growing trend of funds moving from high-beta tech stocks to defensive sectors like chemicals and regional banks, indicating a shift in market sentiment [14][15]

见闻 财经 吕方 WSCN Economic Calendar v 华尔街见闻 | 时间 | | 内容 | 预期 前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2月9日 周一 | | | | | | 待定 | | 中国 1月M2货币供应同比 | | 8.5% | | 待定 | | 中国 1月M0货币供应同比 | | 10.2% | | 数据 | 待定 | 中国 1月M1货币供应同比 | | 3.8% | | 待定 | | 中国 1至1月社会融资规模增量(亿人民币) | | 356000 | | 待定 | | 中国 1至1月新增人民币贷款(亿人民币) | | 162700 | | 待定 | | 伊朗局势:特朗普称美国将再次与伊朗谈判(全周事件) | | | | 待定 | | AI大战升级：千问、豆包、元宝、文心相继发起红包、免 单等活动（全周事件） | | | | 事件 | | | | | | 待定 | | 上金所、上期所、郑商所:调整金银铜等期货合约交易保 证等权例 | | | | 待定 | | 澜起科技赴港IPO,预计股票将于2月9日开始交易 | | | | 财报 | | ...

以下文章来源于硬AI ，作者专注科技产研的 硬AI . AI时代，快人一步~ 随着AI基础设施建设的军备竞赛进入"深水区"，一个令投资者不安的转折点已然浮现：为了支撑AI算力需求，亚马逊、谷歌和Meta正面临自由现金流被耗尽甚 至透支的风险。 根据摩根大通2026年2月5日发布的研究报告，美国四大云巨头——亚马逊、谷歌、Meta和微软，2026年总资本支出预计将达到 6450亿美元 ，同比激增 56%，新增支出将达到惊人的2300亿美元。 如果说谷歌还只是在"疯狂花钱"，那么 亚马逊 则堪称"透支未来"。 2026年，亚马逊的资本支出指引约为 2000亿美元 （同比增长52%）。但问题的核心在于，亚马逊赚回来的现金已经盖不住支出了——据标普全球市场分析师 预测，亚马逊2026年的运营现金流（OCF）约为 1780亿美元 。 对于投资者而言，2026年，或将是紧盯科技巨头资产负债表的一年。 谷歌的97%增速与亚马逊的"现金赤字" 在这场基建狂潮中， 谷歌 的投入非常激进。 2026年，谷歌的资本支出指引已上调至 1750亿至1850亿美元 ，同比增速高达 97% ，其资金正疯狂涌向服务器和技术基础设施。 这意味 ...