白银史上首次突破每盎司100美元历史关口，而在这场史诗级涨势背后，一位科技企业家的惊人押注正浮出水面。 就在白银价格还在30美元区间徘徊时，已有人悄然建仓10亿美元实物贵金属，这笔交易如今浮盈可能已超250%。 Entrata创始人David Bateman在2025年初透露， 他在过去六个月内购买了"接近10亿美元的贵金属"，其中包括1269万盎司白银，相当于全球年度白银供应量 的1.5% 。这是一笔完全押注实物的巨额交易，规模堪比巴菲特在上世纪90年代末的白银投资。 Bateman的交易逻辑建立在对 全球货币体系即将崩溃 的判断之上。 他认为史上最大信贷泡沫即将破裂，美国未来四年内需要为28万亿美元到期国债再融资， 这将引发大规模货币印刷，而特朗普关税政策正在加速这一进程。 周五，白银飙升至每盎司100美元以上的历史新高，黄金则逼近每盎司5000美元关口。高盛Delta One部门主管Rick Privorotsky指出，虽然资金流向显示部分 投机参与，但主导驱动力仍是结构性的。他强调黄金首先是央行交易，反映的是美元过度特权的缓慢侵蚀，而非信心的突然丧失。这一判断与Bateman关于货 币体系长期重构的观 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of financial institutions utilizing satellite technology for credit risk management and operational continuity, highlighting a shift from traditional data procurement to direct satellite deployment for enhanced data sovereignty and efficiency [1][5]. Group 1: Satellite Deployment by Banks - In January, China Merchants Bank's "Zhaoyin Jinkui" and SPD Bank's "Puyin Shuzhi" satellites were launched, marking a significant step in the banks' integration into the "Tianqi Constellation" low Earth orbit network [2][3]. - The satellites will enable direct data transmission to banks without third-party intermediaries, enhancing data sovereignty and operational efficiency [3][4]. - The deployment of these satellites represents a strategic shift in the banking sector's approach to utilizing aerospace technology for financial services [4][5]. Group 2: Differentiation in Banking Strategies - Banks are diverging into two main strategies: the "launching faction," which invests in hardware assets, and the "buying faction," which relies on data service procurement [7]. - Major banks like China Merchants Bank, SPD Bank, and Ping An Bank are leading the satellite launch initiatives, with Ping An having previously launched its own satellites [10][14]. Group 3: Cost and Technological Advancements - The cost of custom satellites has decreased significantly, making them more accessible for banks, with estimates ranging from millions to tens of millions of RMB [26][30]. - The ability to customize satellite payloads allows banks to meet specific operational needs, such as monitoring construction projects or environmental conditions [34]. Group 4: Risk Management and Operational Continuity - The integration of satellite technology into banks' risk management systems allows for real-time monitoring of collateral assets, enhancing the banks' ability to respond to potential risks [24][39]. - The concept of "financial disaster recovery" is emerging, with banks testing satellite communication systems to ensure operational continuity during extreme events [40][42]. Group 5: Empowering the Commercial Space Industry - Banks are increasingly interested in financing commercial space ventures, which have traditionally been viewed as high-risk due to their unique asset structures [48]. - China Merchants Bank's subsidiary has initiated a satellite leasing business, demonstrating a new financing model that aligns with the needs of the commercial space sector [49].

1月23日周五，全球金属市场掀起新一轮上涨高潮，以期货即月合约收盘价计，金银齐创2020年来最大单周涨幅，进入2026年以来保持每周累涨。 纽约期银和伦敦现货白银均史上首次突破100美元关口。 黄金连续第五个交易日盘中创历史新高，进一步逼近5000美元大关，伦铜重上1.3万美元 ，接近本月稍早创下的盘中最高纪录。其他贵金属和工业金属涨势凌 厉。美股盘中，纽约钯金期货曾涨约7%，铂金期货曾涨超7%，伦镍和伦锡周五收盘分别涨超4%和9.5%。 这轮涨势受到多重因素推动。 美元走弱、投资者资金大规模流出货币和主权债券，加之特朗普抨击美联储威胁央行独立性、美欧关系恶化以及地缘政治局势动 荡，均加剧了避险情绪，共同推动金属持续上涨。 评论提及， 特朗普关于美国"舰队"正前往伊朗的言论促使投资者涌入白银、黄金和铜等基本金属。 这里所说的舰队是指，据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普22 日周四在总统专机"空军一号"上对媒体表示，美国正调集重兵前往伊朗，许多舰艇正在向伊朗行进。 机构普遍看涨贵金属后市。华尔街见闻上周提到，摩根大通预计，金价到2026年第四季度将达到5000美元，长期甚至看向6000美元；花旗在牛市情景下将未 来0 ...

全球半导体市场出现结构性变化，传统意义上被视为成熟品类的CPU领域，正成为资本市场的关注焦点。 截至1月23日，英特尔股价一度创下近四年新高，年内涨幅近38%，AMD延续连续上涨态势；A股市场中，龙芯中科与海光信息分别录得20%涨停及单日涨幅 超13%。 这一行情背后 ，反映的是市场对"算力税"传导逻辑的重新定价，继GPU因AI训练需求大涨之后，CPU正在成为算力成本上涨的第二波承载者。 机构的共识正在迅速形成。国联民生证券与西部证券在近期报告中不约而同地指出， 当前CPU市场的供需变化并非周期性波动，而是由AI智能体应用规模化落 地所驱动的结构性变革。 与以GPU为核心的AI训练不同，在智能体工作负载中 ，CPU承担了包括工具调用、任务编排、实时决策等大量非AI原生计算，相关处理耗时占总任务延迟的 比例高达80%-90%。这使得CPU在系统层面可能比GPU更早成为性能瓶颈。 在此趋势下，国产CPU厂商迎来产业与政策的双重机遇。CPU，这一曾长期被视为"传统"的算力组件，正在AI智能体浪潮中重新确立其系统级价值。 AI智能体催化"域外CPU"需求重塑 传统AI计算将算力重心完全置于GPU之上，主要用于模型的训 ...

供应充足、库存可调、用途分散——在很长一段时间里，市场坚信：无论需求如何波动，白银总能被迅速补上。正因如此，它可以被当作黄金的影子反复交 易，却几乎从未被认真配置。 但这一前提，已经被现实击穿。 过去，白银之所以被称为"穷人的黄金"，并不是因为它真的廉价，而是因为市场从未认真对待过它的稀缺性。 ( 白银价格逼近每盎司100美元 ，去年10月中旬白银价格仅为50美元/盎司，3个月接近翻倍。) 白银的"身份困境"：夹在黄金与工业金属之间 要理解白银为何长期被低估，首先要理解它的"身份困境"。 在现代大宗商品体系中，资产大致可以分为两类： 一类是 信用型资产 ，典型代表是黄金。黄金的价值锚并不来自工业用途，而来自信用体系和储备需求。即便在需求最疲弱的年份，全球央行的黄金净购买 量，依然可以占到年度总需求的 15%–25% ，为其价格提供稳定底座。 自2021年以来，全球白银市场连续多年出现实物供需缺口。不同于以往由金融周期放大的短期紧张，这一次的缺口直接来自产业端：光伏、电气化、高端电子 等关键领域对白银的需求同步快速扩张，而供给却几乎无法提速。 更致命的是，白银的供给体系对价格信号高度迟钝。 全球超过七成的白银产 ...

AI代码平台Claude Code在半小时内完成了英伟达CUDA代码向AMD ROCm平台的移植，展示了生成式AI在打破计算生态壁垒方面的潜力。 1月22日，一位用户在社交平台Reddit上披露，他使用Claude Code将整个CUDA后端移植至AMD的ROCm平台，且无需中间转换层。 这一案例引发市场关注，部分人士认为这可能削弱英伟达长期以来依赖CUDA构建的技术护城河。 不过，业内人士指出，这一成果可能仅适用于较简单的内核代码。对于需要深度硬件优化和复杂上下文的代码库，AI工具的移植能力仍面临显著局限。 英伟达的CUDA平台长期主导AI计算领域，其生态系统的封闭性使得开发者难以将应用迁移至竞争对手AMD的ROCm平台，这也是英伟达维持市场优势的关键 因素之一。 智能代理实现快速移植 业内人士认为，真正的挑战在于相互关联的复杂代码库。 此类移植需要智能代理系统理解大量上下文信息才能有效完成向ROCm的转换。 更关键的是，编写内核代码的核心在于实现深度硬件优化。 有观点指出，Claude Code在针对特定缓存层级等硬件细节的优化方面仍力有不逮，这限制了其在 高性能计算场景中的实用性。 据用户johnnyt ...

华尔街投资者正在熟练掌握应对特朗普政策威胁的节奏。最新的格陵兰关税风波从 威胁到退让仅用数天 ，远短于此前4至6周的典型周期， "TACO"（Trump Always Chickens Out，特朗普总是退缩）思维已深度嵌入市场定价机制。 美东时间21日周三，特朗普宣布，已与北约秘书长吕特就格陵兰岛问题达成协议框架，由此暂缓始于2月1日生效的对欧洲国家加征计划。 据新华社报道，特朗普在瑞士达沃斯与吕特会晤后称，暂时不会按原定计划向反对美国得到格陵兰岛的欧洲八国加征关税。此前一天， 美国股市单日蒸发超1 万亿美元，创下4月以来最严重的抛售之一。尽管特朗普将这次下跌称为"花生米"，但政策转向的时机凸显了市场波动对其决策的影响力。 "政府对股市走势显然存在敏感性，"管理2140亿美元资产的Man Group首席市场策略师Kristina Hooper表示，"这在退让决定中表现得非常明显。"Corpay首席 市场策略师Karl Schamotta称， 特朗普对华尔街反应的评论"发出了信号，这击中了他的痛处"。 这一动态正在改变市场行为模式。 投资者一方面越来越确信特朗普会在市场压力下妥协，另一方面也在被迫适应更极端的 ...

Core Viewpoint - SpaceX is preparing for an IPO that could become the largest in history, with a valuation of approximately $800 billion and a potential fundraising target exceeding $30 billion [4][7][10]. Group 1: IPO Preparation - SpaceX executives have met with bankers from major investment firms including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley to discuss the IPO [1][6]. - Other banks may also participate in the IPO, but no final decisions have been made regarding their involvement [2][6]. - The IPO is expected to surpass the previous record set by Saudi Aramco's $29 billion IPO in 2019 [7]. Group 2: Company Valuation and Market Position - Since its founding over two decades ago, SpaceX has seen its valuation rise significantly, establishing itself as a leading developer of commercial rockets and providing the Starlink satellite internet service [3]. - The internal stock price was set at $421 per share in December, reflecting the company's substantial valuation [4]. Group 3: Strategic Moves - In September, SpaceX acquired wireless spectrum licenses from struggling operator EchoStar for $17 billion to enhance its Starlink network, further solidifying its position in the satellite internet sector [8][9]. - The IPO preparation coincides with a potential wave of large tech company IPOs in the U.S. market [11].

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk outlined an ambitious vision for Tesla, focusing on humanoid robots, autonomous driving, space exploration, and artificial intelligence (AI), predicting that AI could surpass human intelligence by the end of this year [2][9]. Group 1: Humanoid Robots and AI - Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is expected to be publicly available for sale by the end of next year, contingent on the robot's reliability, safety, and functionality [3][6]. - Musk believes that billions of AI-driven robots will eventually outnumber humans and will be deployed in various settings, including homes, to assist with tasks ranging from dishwashing to childcare [6][9]. - By the end of 2026, Optimus robots are anticipated to handle more complex tasks, with some already performing basic functions in Tesla's factories [7]. Group 2: Autonomous Driving - Tesla's Robotaxi service is projected to be widely deployed across the U.S. by the end of this year, with current operations in Austin, Texas, lacking in-car safety supervisors [3][8]. - Musk claims that Tesla's full self-driving software is essentially a solved problem, with updates occurring weekly and some insurance companies offering discounts for users of the technology [8]. Group 3: Space Exploration - SpaceX aims to achieve full reusability of its Starship rocket this year, which Musk claims could reduce space travel costs by a factor of 100, bringing costs below $100 per pound [8]. - Musk discussed plans to deploy solar-powered AI satellites in space, predicting that solar panel efficiency in space is five times greater than on Earth [8][9]. Group 4: Energy Production - A solar panel area measuring 100 square miles could potentially power the entire United States, with Tesla and SpaceX teams working to establish an annual solar manufacturing capacity of 100 gigawatts in about three years [9].

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is seen as a pivotal moment in China's economic history, marking a shift from "scale dividends" to a focus on "system safety and quality revolution" as the country enters the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][4]. Historical Context - Each five-year plan has historically been associated with a restructuring of wealth logic, with significant changes occurring every five years: - "15th" period (2001-2005): Entry into WTO, urbanization, infrastructure, real estate, and foreign trade became wealth drivers [1]. - "11th" period (2006-2010): High-speed growth driven by the "4 trillion" stimulus, leading to peaks in finance, real estate, and heavy industry [2]. - "12th" period (2011-2015): Transition pains with the rise of "strategic emerging industries" like Internet+, mobile payments, and consumption upgrades [3]. - "13th" period (2016-2020): Supply-side reforms and "de-leveraging" reshaped the industrial landscape [4]. - "14th" period (2021-2025): Shift from "efficiency first" to "safety first" with a focus on carbon neutrality and semiconductor self-sufficiency [4]. Challenges Ahead - The old economic models are failing as new factors emerge, such as aging population and unprecedented monetary policy shifts, making traditional metrics like GDP growth less relevant [4][5]. - Investors face a "logic gap," struggling to translate policy intentions into actionable liquidity support and asset allocation strategies [5]. Upcoming Opportunities - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" presents complex challenges for macroeconomic policy, with a need for new frameworks to navigate the evolving landscape [5]. - The course led by economist Xiong Yuan aims to decode the "15th Five-Year Plan" and identify investment opportunities within the A-share market, focusing on core assets and understanding the implications of policy changes [6][19]. Course Insights - The course will cover: - Understanding policy frameworks and their implications for capital markets [19]. - Identifying investment opportunities within the "15th Five-Year Plan" [19]. - Analyzing the evolution of China's monetary and fiscal policies [19]. - Bridging the gap between policy interpretation and practical investment applications [19]. Conclusion - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is not just a distant concept but a critical framework that investors must engage with to navigate the next five years effectively, emphasizing the importance of understanding policy nuances and market signals [19].