在2025年全球股市的角逐中，一场罕见的逆转正在上演。曾 一度被投资者忽视的欧洲市场，如今正以惊人的表现霸占全球股市排行榜的前列，打破了华尔街 将主导市场的普遍预期。 在距2025年交易结束仅剩一个月之际，全球表现最佳的20个股票市场中， 欧洲独占半壁江山。以美元计算，匈牙利、斯洛文尼亚和捷克共和国等市场的涨幅 均超过60%，跻身全球前十。 这一出人意料的强劲表现， 是欧洲自欧元区成立以来仅有的第四次，标志着投资者信心的显著回归。 这一转变已在资金流向上得到体现。 美国银行的最新月度调查显示，投资者目前已转为净增持欧洲股票，同时略微减持美国股票。斯托克600指数（Stoxx 600 Index）相对标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）的美元计价表现，正迈向2006年以来的最大优势。 强劲反弹的背后，是欧洲经济前景的改善、低于美国的通胀水平、德国即将开启的财政刺激，以及走强的欧元。这些因素共同作用，正在重塑全球资本的配置 版图。 意外的强劲表现 今年以来，欧洲多个股指的表现远超预期。 匈牙利、斯洛文尼亚和捷克共和国等市场以美元计算的涨幅均超过60%，稳居全球表现最佳的股指之列。西班牙、 波兰和奥地利的股市也紧随 ...

以下文章来源于投资界 ，作者王露 投资界 . 清科控股旗下创业与投资资讯平台 （图片由豆包生成） 这也许是打工人最喜欢看到的一幕。 A股上市公司联影医疗发布公告称，公司五大员工持股平台合计减持股份1337万股， 总价值高达18.2亿元。 回望2011年，薛敏和张强两位校友在上海创立联影医疗，怀揣打破外资垄断的初心，十年磨一剑填补了国产高端医疗装备的空白。2022年公司成功登陆 科创板， 如今市值约1100亿。 行至当下，一批"打工人"站到财富兑现的聚光灯。这是一场关于耐心与信任的时代叙事。 18亿，核心员工落袋 具体来看这笔减持——联影医疗的五家员工持股平台宁波影聚、宁波影力、宁波影健、宁波影康及上海影董，通过集中竞价及大宗交易方式减持公司股 份，持股数量减少约1337万股，总金额为18.2亿元。 这一幕，早在十多年前就埋下了种子。 自2013年开始，联影医疗为了激励员工，通过董事会下设"薪酬委员会"向核心人才发放虚拟股份。此后，公司又将原有的虚拟股计划调整为员工持股计 划。 为配合这一安排，联影医疗在2017年搭建起五家员工持股平台——即本次减持主体。上述平台的执行事务合伙人均由公司董事长兼联席首席执行官张 ...

Group 1 - The "Trump trade" is facing significant losses, particularly for assets directly associated with Trump and his family, with the Trump Media & Technology Group's stock down 75% since his inauguration [1] - The meme coins named after Trump and Melania have seen declines of 86% and 99% respectively since the inauguration, while another cryptocurrency project linked to the Trump family has dropped about 40% since its launch in September [1] - The sell-off of these assets coincides with a broader decline in speculative market enthusiasm, affecting various risk assets including Bitcoin and AI-related stocks [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in speculative sentiment is not limited to Trump-related assets; a basket of unprofitable tech stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs has fallen 21% from mid-October to November 21 after an earlier surge [3] - The Trump Media & Technology Group has a staggering price-to-sales ratio of 1240, indicating a significant market correction [4] - Despite the downturn in certain sectors, healthcare stocks have risen, and major Wall Street banks like Goldman Sachs have performed well, while regional banks lag behind due to economic slowdown concerns [5][6] Group 3 - Gold has emerged as a winner amid market turmoil, with prices around $4200 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 60% increase this year as investors seek safe-haven assets [6] - Bitcoin has faced a harsh sell-off, dropping 30% in less than two months after a strong rally, impacting the Trump business ventures heavily invested in the cryptocurrency [6] - The macroeconomic outlook remains mixed, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which could stabilize market sentiment [10]

摩科瑞能源集团金属业务主管Kostas Bintas日前重申了对铜价的看涨预测，并发出警告称， 随着大量金属涌入美国市场，全球其他地区的铜库存面临进一步 枯竭的风险。 为套取价差利润，交易员正将大量金属运至报价更高的美国市场，从而改变了市场动态。这种溢价在很大程度上受到对未来关税政策持续不确定性的推动。尽 管特朗普在今年早些时候暂时豁免了对精炼铜的征税，但他表示将在2026年下半年重新审视这一决定，这促使市场再次加速囤货。 在上海举行的一次重要行业会议结束时，Bintas接受采访表示 ，如果目前的资金流向持续下去，全球其他地区将面临"无铜可用"的窘境。 作为全球知名的金属 交易商，摩科瑞能源集团在去年大举扩张金属市场业务，并曾是今年早些时候大规模套利交易的主要参与者之一。 他将当前的局势形容为铜多头"一次大好机会"。 据报道，Bintas指出，利润丰厚的美国套利交易正在卷土重来，这将导致美国以外地区供应短缺，推动铜价这种全球基准工业金属价格"只能上涨"。 套利交易重启与美国进口激增 随着对美发货量的回升，摩科瑞预计未来几个月美国的铜进口量将显著增加。该公司预测，2026年第一季度的进口速度将与2025年第二季 ...

Economic Indicators - China's November RatingDog Manufacturing PMI will be released on December 1, with the previous value at 50.6, indicating continued expansion but slowing growth [6][8] - The US ISM Manufacturing Index for November is expected to rise slightly from 48.7 to 49.0, still in contraction territory, but regional Fed surveys suggest employment improvements may support the index [6][8] - The US PCE report and personal income report, key inflation indicators for the Federal Reserve, have been rescheduled to December 5 [7][8] Key Events - US-Russia talks are scheduled for the week of December 1, with President Putin confirming the US delegation's visit to Moscow [10] - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Russia for strategic security consultations on December 1-2 [11] - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will speak in Nagoya on December 1, with market expectations on his comments regarding inflation and wage negotiations [12] Company Announcements - Nvidia will attend the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference on December 2, with a financial call scheduled for February 25 [13] - Ideal Automotive will hold a launch event for its AI glasses, Livis, on December 3, aiming to integrate AI capabilities into daily life [14][15] - XREAL and Google are set to release AR glasses, Project Aura, in December 2025, featuring advanced AI technology [16] Financial Reports - A wave of earnings reports is expected, with Credo reporting on December 2, Marvell on December 3, and C3.ai and Salesforce on December 4 [26][27]

Core Viewpoints - The discussion highlights concerns about the sustainability of massive capital expenditures in AI, suggesting that while there may be potential for individual successful applications, the overall financial viability remains uncertain [3][5][26] - The panelists express skepticism about the current AI investment boom, likening it to past infrastructure investments in China that ultimately did not yield sustainable returns [4][25][26] - There is a consensus that gold may not be a guaranteed investment, with recent actions by central banks, particularly Russia's selling of gold, signaling potential shifts in the market [7][60][62] Group 1: AI Investment Insights - Li Bei emphasizes that the current level of capital expenditure in AI is unsustainable, questioning whether it can generate significant cash flow returns [3][26] - The panelists agree that AI may not be the primary upward driver in the market moving forward and could instead become a downward drag [5][29] - The difficulty of timing exits in a bubble is highlighted, with references to top traders struggling to navigate market peaks [6][49] Group 2: Gold and Currency Perspectives - The recent selling of gold by the Russian central bank is noted as a significant warning sign for the gold market [7][60] - There is a belief that while dollar-denominated gold may not decline significantly, gold priced in RMB could face downward pressure [67] - The undervaluation of the RMB is discussed, with expectations that it may gradually be recognized in international reserves, potentially replacing gold and USD [61][62] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The panelists suggest avoiding chasing bubble assets and instead focusing on resilient companies that can thrive in challenging economic conditions [8][90] - Recommendations include diversifying into non-US value stocks, commodities, and companies involved in AI development that are undervalued [11][91][94] - The importance of maintaining a balanced investment portfolio that allows for peace of mind during market volatility is emphasized [91][95]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of China's AI industry, highlighting the strategic choices of major players like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent as they navigate a battle for capital efficiency, infrastructure dominance, and traffic entry points. Group 1: Alibaba's Strategy - Alibaba is adopting a "full-stack" approach similar to Google's, with a significant capital expenditure increase of 80% year-on-year, reaching 32 billion RMB in the September quarter [2] - The company's cloud revenue grew by 29% year-on-year, with AI-related revenue achieving triple-digit growth for the ninth consecutive quarter, and is expected to accelerate to 38% growth in the December quarter [3] - Alibaba aims to establish a "full-stack" barrier in the AI market, positioning itself as a dominant player through heavy asset investment [4] Group 2: ByteDance's Approach - ByteDance leverages its massive traffic advantage, with a daily token consumption of 30 trillion, approaching Google's 43 trillion, significantly outpacing competitors like Baidu and DeepSeek [7] - The company's app "Doubao" leads in domestic AI application activity, while its overseas education app Gauth saw a 394% year-on-year revenue increase [8] - ByteDance's strategy creates substantial inference demand, allowing it to encroach on traditional cloud giants in the Model as a Service (MaaS) sector, capturing 49.2% of the public cloud market share for large models [11] Group 3: Tencent's Strategy - Tencent maintains a conservative approach, reducing capital expenditures while focusing on seamlessly integrating AI capabilities into its extensive social and payment ecosystem [12][14] - The company has integrated its AI assistant "Yuanbao" into WeChat Pay, enhancing operational efficiency for small and medium-sized businesses [14] - Tencent's strategy emphasizes high implementation certainty despite lower capital expenditure figures compared to competitors [14] Group 4: Competitive Dynamics - The competition between China and the U.S. in AI has entered a "dynamic alternation" phase, with Chinese models rapidly iterating and catching up within 3-6 months after significant advancements in U.S. models [4][17] - Chinese companies exhibit resilience through unique "Chinese speed" and open-source ecosystems, with 80% of AI startups utilizing open-source models [17] - Cost control is a competitive advantage for Chinese models, as seen with Kuaishou's "Kling" video generation model, which offers significantly lower prices than global counterparts [17] Group 5: Valuation Insights - Goldman Sachs analysts assert that the Chinese AI sector is not in a bubble, with projected P/E ratios for Tencent and Alibaba at 21x and 23x for 2026, respectively, lower than those of major U.S. tech companies [18]

Core Viewpoint - The current narrative surrounding AI is pushing the Federal Reserve into a dilemma, where following Greenspan's approach could lead to dangerous outcomes, while not lowering interest rates could result in severe consequences for the market [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The report from TS Lombard highlights that AI could either lead to a deflationary productivity boom similar to the 1990s or push up the equilibrium interest rate (r*), creating two opposing monetary policy paths [1]. - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates based solely on the expectation of increased productivity from AI, it risks repeating the mistakes of the past, particularly given the current inflation environment is less favorable than in the 1990s [1][5]. - Conversely, if the Federal Reserve does not lower rates, it may inadvertently push the market into a crisis, especially if inflation resurfaces as a primary concern by 2026 [1][2]. Group 2: Greenspan's Legacy - The report discusses Greenspan's dual legacy, where potential successors to the Federal Reserve chair are attempting to position themselves as inheritors of his policies, citing the AI revolution as a justification for lowering rates [3][4]. - Greenspan's 1996 decision to delay rate hikes based on underestimated productivity growth is noted as a pivotal moment, which was later contradicted by his 2000 shift towards tightening monetary policy due to rising equilibrium rates [5][6]. Group 3: Key Questions Influencing Policy - Three critical questions are identified that will shape the Federal Reserve's policy direction: 1. Whether large-scale capital expenditures in the tech sector will be inflationary, with concerns that increased energy consumption from data centers could pose inflation risks [8]. 2. The potential for AI to deliver productivity gains akin to those seen in the 1990s, with estimates of AI's contribution to productivity varying significantly among experts [10]. 3. Who will benefit from productivity gains, as historical trends suggest that workers, rather than corporations, may reap the rewards [11][12]. Group 4: AI's Economic Impact - AI could act as a deflationary force if productivity increases while wage growth remains stable, leading to lower unit labor costs and potentially lower prices for consumers [12]. - However, the surge in capital expenditures driven by AI may also elevate equilibrium interest rates, necessitating careful monitoring by the Federal Reserve to avoid overly loose monetary policy [12][14]. Group 5: Market Implications - The Federal Reserve's traditional approach of "cleaning up after the fact" rather than preemptively intervening in asset bubbles is emphasized, suggesting that while they may not actively burst bubbles, they could do so inadvertently [14][15]. - The current inflation dynamics are less favorable than those in the 1990s, which could lead to higher risks if the Federal Reserve attempts to replicate Greenspan's strategies in a different economic context [15].

在经历了月初的动荡后，金融市场于11月的最后一周上演了一场万物反弹的行情。 本周，随着美联储12月降息预期的升温，美股、美债、大宗商品乃至加密货币等几乎所有类别的资产均协同上涨，一扫此前对AI泡沫和经济增长的忧虑。 （美股基准股指11月走势，标普500指数从月中大幅下跌中反弹，最终基本收平） 行情逆转的关键节点出现在上周五，华尔街见闻提及，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯放鸽，市场押注12月降息概率因此从约30%突破至50%。随后"鲍威尔盟友"连续 发声支持降息，市场对美联储12月降息预期大幅升至80%。 （绿线美联储12月降息概率 VS 蓝线明年1月概率） 分析认为，尽管全球资产内部结构仍在调整，但充裕的流动性为风险资产提供了坚实底部，有效封锁了系统性下跌的空间。 "万物反弹"席卷假日周 在感恩节假期周，市场一改此前数周的焦虑不安，上演了今年以来最强的跨资产反弹之一。 周五芝商所因数据中心故障一度暂停交易，也未能阻挡这股上涨势头。本周具体表现来看： 美国标普500指数本周大涨3.7%，创下六个月来最佳单周表现，同时也是 自2008年雷曼危机以来最好的"感恩节周"表现。 （ 标普500指数自2008年以来感恩节期间表现最 ...

DeepSeek最新发布的开源数学模型，正将其推向与OpenAI和谷歌等科技巨头同场竞技的舞台DeepSeekMath-V2的模型，在被誉为全球最难的高中数学竞赛 中达到了金牌水平，成为首个实现这一成就的开源模型，标志着开源人工智能在复杂推理能力上的一次重大突破。 昨日DeepSeek宣布推出其最新的数学推理模型DeepSeekMath-V2，该模型在模拟的2025年国际数学奥林匹克竞赛（IMO）中解决了6个问题中的5个，达到 了金牌水平。 这一成就使其成为第一个在IMO级别竞赛中获得金牌的开源模型，引发了AI研究和开发者社区的高度关注。 这一表现直接对标了行业巨头。就在今年7月，谷歌DeepMind的Gemini高级版本和一个来自OpenAI的实验性推理模型也达到了IMO 2025的金牌标准，同样解 决了5个问题，它们是首批达到该水平的人工智能模型。 然而，与谷歌和OpenAI的闭源实验模型不同，DeepSeekMath-V2的模型权重根据Apache 2.0许可证公开发布，可供公众下载。 值得一提的是，DeepSeekMath-V2采用了一种创新的自我验证训练框架。该方法的核心是训练一个专门的"验证器"（ ...