Core Viewpoint - The ongoing political struggles surrounding the Federal Reserve, particularly the investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell, are reaching a critical juncture that could significantly impact market expectations regarding interest rate movements [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investigation into Powell - The criminal investigation into Powell is evolving into a political backlash against the Trump administration, with subpoenas issued regarding renovation costs of the Federal Reserve building [4]. - This backlash resonates within the Republican Party, signaling to the White House that failure to terminate the investigation could hinder the confirmation process for the next Federal Reserve Chair [5]. - Trump's advisors are attempting to de-escalate the situation, suggesting that once the requested information is provided, the matter could be resolved [6][7]. Group 2: Supreme Court Case - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is crucial for the independence of the Federal Reserve [8]. - The case stems from Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook on allegations of mortgage fraud, which she denies, and her legal challenge aims to protect her position [9]. - A ruling in favor of Trump could undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve by allowing the President to dismiss any Federal Reserve official at will [10]. Group 3: Economic Context - The U.S. GDP growth reached 4.3% in the fourth quarter, raising questions about the justification for interest rate cuts, especially given Trump's previous calls for rates to be lowered to near zero [11]. - If investors perceive that the Federal Reserve is no longer independent in combating inflation, bond yields could rise sharply [12]. Group 4: Future Leadership of the Federal Reserve - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is expected to conclude soon, with candidates including Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh [14]. - Current indications suggest that Warsh is favored over Hassett, as he is seen as more capable of maintaining a degree of independence, which is viewed positively by Wall Street [15]. - Trump's upcoming speech in Davos may coincide with the announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair, although there is potential for delays or unexpected candidates [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant upcoming economic events and data releases that could impact global markets, focusing on U.S. inflation, geopolitical tensions, and China's economic indicators [6][7][10]. Economic Data and Events - On January 19, China will release key economic data including GDP, industrial output, and retail sales, with expectations of a 4.6% year-on-year GDP growth for Q4 [15]. - The U.S. will publish the core PCE price index on January 22, which is anticipated to show a rebound, potentially affecting market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [11][12]. - Japan's central bank is expected to maintain its interest rate at 0.75% during its meeting on January 23, amid political uncertainties [16]. Geopolitical Developments - The World Economic Forum in Davos will take place from January 19-23, with U.S. President Trump expected to address economic and geopolitical issues, which may influence market sentiment [22]. - The U.S. Supreme Court will hear a case regarding Trump's dismissal of a Federal Reserve official, which could set a precedent for presidential authority over Fed officials [29]. Corporate News and Financial Reports - Major companies such as Intel and Netflix are set to release earnings reports, which will be critical in assessing the recovery in technology hardware and streaming sectors [39]. - Walmart will be added to the Nasdaq-100 index on January 20, replacing AstraZeneca, which may impact its stock performance [41]. - Dragon Flag Technology is seeking to raise up to $2.05 billion through an IPO in Hong Kong, with shares expected to start trading on January 22 [42].

Core Viewpoint - Rising electricity costs are becoming a central issue in the U.S. political agenda, surpassing other types of inflation, with data centers being heavily criticized for their significant energy consumption [1][2]. Group 1: Political Implications - The Trump administration is actively engaging with state governors to address rising electricity prices, pushing for emergency power auctions and requiring large tech companies to either self-supply electricity or bear the costs of new power plants [1][2]. - Electricity costs in the U.S. increased by 6.7% year-over-year as of December, with a cumulative rise of approximately 38% since 2020, while overall consumer prices rose only 2.7% during the same period [2]. - The political pressure surrounding electricity prices is evident, with various state governors expressing concerns about the impact of rising costs on consumers and the need for regulatory scrutiny of utility companies [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in electricity prices is attributed to multiple factors, including aging infrastructure, natural disasters, state renewable energy initiatives, and fluctuations in fuel costs [3][8]. - The demand for electricity is shifting due to electrification, the return of manufacturing, and the retirement of coal plants, which is tightening regional electricity markets and increasing costs passed on to consumers [8][9]. - Goldman Sachs suggests that investors should hedge against the political risks associated with AI and data centers, as policymakers are increasingly vocal about the energy consumption of data centers [2][10]. Group 3: Industry Response - Data centers are being labeled as the scapegoat for rising electricity costs, leading to debates about cost allocation between residential consumers and large commercial clients [6][12]. - Goldman Sachs has identified three primary concerns regarding data centers: the substantial cash flow investments in infrastructure, the accuracy of measuring capacity demand, and the potential regulatory controls that may arise from the upcoming midterm elections [11][12]. - The firm recommends several trading strategies to mitigate risks associated with the political landscape, including investing in non-tech companies that enhance productivity through AI and hedging against volatility in AI-related stocks [11][12].

Core Insights - Anthropic's Claude Code is initiating a significant AI application wave, likened to the advent of generative AI [2] - The latest version, Claude Opus 4.5, allows non-technical users to easily build software, reshaping perceptions of AI capabilities [3] Group 1: AI Programming Revolution - The ease of "AI programming" is leading to a new wave of "micro-apps" and "super programmers" who can outperform entire teams [4][11] - Users are leveraging Claude Code for diverse tasks, from analyzing health data to developing personal software, democratizing software development [4][10] Group 2: User Experiences and Industry Impact - Users report significant productivity boosts, with some claiming a fivefold increase in efficiency due to Claude Code [8][21] - The tool's ability to autonomously run and access various applications marks a shift in user interaction with AI, providing a glimpse into future possibilities [9] Group 3: Changing Software Development Landscape - A new consumer habit is emerging where individuals create personalized "micro-apps" instead of relying on traditional SaaS solutions [12][13] - These micro-apps are characterized by their specific use cases and immediate problem-solving capabilities, shifting software from a purchased commodity to a self-made tool [14][16] Group 4: The Rise of "Cracked Engineers" - The term "Cracked Engineers" describes highly skilled software engineers who can leverage AI tools for exceptional output, leading to intense competition in the industry [17][20] - Companies are increasingly seeking these "super programmers," with some reporting that one individual can now produce work equivalent to a 15-person team [21][22] Group 5: Challenges and Concerns - The pursuit of "Cracked Engineers" raises concerns about the mental health and social behaviors of young engineers, as they may adopt unhealthy work habits to fit this mold [23][24] - Some founders are using the hiring of "Cracked Engineers" as a superficial solution to deeper business model issues [24]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest research report indicates a relatively mild regulatory stance on 232 key mineral executive orders, which has not imposed tariffs on precious metals like silver, creating a favorable market environment. The firm maintains a strong bullish outlook on gold while warning of significant pullback risks in the silver market [1][4]. Group 1: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market has shown multiple warning signals: prices have significantly diverged from fundamental predictions, ETFs have experienced continuous net outflows, industrial demand is under pressure, and supply in non-US regions is becoming more relaxed [1]. - Since Christmas, silver prices have risen approximately 25%, while ETFs have seen a net outflow of about 18 million ounces, indicating a rare divergence in market behavior [2]. - Industrial demand for silver is facing increasing pressure, with Morgan Stanley previously warning that rising silver prices could threaten solar industry demand by 50 to 60 million ounces over the next few years [10][11]. Group 2: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - COMEX silver inventory has decreased from about 530 million ounces in early October to approximately 430 million ounces, with a notable acceleration in outflows since January, averaging close to 2 million ounces per day [6]. - The trend of silver inventory moving from New York to London has improved liquidity in the spot market, alleviating the pressure on forward market structures [15]. - The total silver holdings in London have increased by about 104 million ounces since September, closely matching the reduction in COMEX inventory [15]. Group 3: Gold Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley expresses a stronger bullish sentiment towards gold compared to silver, with stable inflows into gold ETFs as investors seek to hedge against various risks, including potential challenges to Federal Reserve independence and geopolitical tensions [17]. - The current gold price is running ahead of Morgan Stanley's baseline forecast, which anticipated an average of $5,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, suggesting that gold could reach this target sooner if risk factors continue to escalate [18].

据彭博报道，马斯克的律师Steven Molo在提交的法庭文件中引用了金融经济学专家C. Paul Wazzan的计算结论， 指出马斯克应获得OpenAI当前5000亿美元 估值中的相应份额，以弥补其当年因被欺诈而投入的3800万美元种子资金。 马斯克已正式向法院提起诉讼，要求OpenAI及其合作伙伴微软赔偿790亿美元至1340亿。指控称， OpenAI背弃其非营利创始使命，转向营利模式并与微软深 度结盟的行为构成欺诈。 这一索赔额基于该公司目前约5000亿美元的估值，以及马斯克2015年为其提供的3800万美元种子资金。 本案即将于4月下旬在加州奥克兰开庭。此前，联邦法官已驳回OpenAI与微软试图避免陪审团审理的动议。OpenAI回应称该诉讼"毫无根据"，并表示将在庭审 中予以驳斥。 马斯克与OpenAI的矛盾始于2024年，核心在于他对其联合创始人Sam Altman将公司转为营利性结构的不满。马斯克于2018年退出OpenAI董事会，并于2023 年创立了自己的AI公司。 索赔金额基于估值增长 ⭐星标华尔街见闻，好内容不错过 ⭐ 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请 ...

以下文章来源于投中网 ，作者黎曼 投中网 . 投中网是领先的创新经济信息服务平台，拥有立体化传播矩阵，为创新经济人群提供深入、独到的智识和洞见，在私募股权投资行业和创新商业领域拥有权 威影响力。官网：www.chinaventure.com.cn 作者 黎曼 编辑 王庆武 原标题《开年最大IPO要来了》 继摩尔、沐曦之后， 2026 年 A 股还有令人沸腾的 IPO 诞生 ? 答案是——已经来了，一个比摩尔沐曦加起来还大的 IPO 即将到来。 近期一则消息： 长鑫科技递交科创板 IPO 申请已于 2025 年 12 月 30 日获受理，申报过程使用了预先审阅机制。 一句话介绍长鑫科技： 中国大陆规模最大、技术最先进的 DRAM （动态随机存取存储器）芯片研发设计制造一体化企业。 长鑫科技 IPO 规模多大？ 3 次巨额融资，挤进"全明星"股东 长鑫科技 IPO 前估值已经来到了约 1500 亿元。 参照摩尔沐曦，摩尔 Pre-IPO 轮投前估值为 246.2 亿元，沐曦约为沐曦股份约 210.71 亿元，二者相 加才等于长鑫科技的"零头"。 按照摩尔线程上市首日涨 400% ，沐曦首日涨 692% ，市值纷纷 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's hesitation in nominating Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chairman adds uncertainty to the selection process, as he prefers Hassett to remain as a key economic advisor in the White House [1][2]. Group 1: Nomination Uncertainty - Trump expressed a desire for Hassett to stay in his current role, indicating that moving him could result in losing a significant economic spokesperson [2][3]. - Following Trump's comments, analysts speculate that Kevin Warsh has emerged as a leading candidate for the Fed Chair position, with Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha noting that this news positions Warsh as a top contender [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - After Trump's remarks, the dollar rebounded slightly from its intraday low, while the stock market shifted from gains to losses, reflecting market reactions to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed Chair nomination [4]. - The two-year Treasury yield increased by 2.6 basis points, reaching above 3.59%, indicating market adjustments to the evolving situation [4]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The search for a new Fed Chair occurs at a delicate moment for monetary policymakers, as the U.S. economy faces conflicting pressures [6]. - Recent employment data shows signs of weakness, prompting calls within the Fed for rate cuts to support the job market, while inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target, complicating the decision-making process [7][8]. - The new Fed Chair is expected to seek further rate cuts, aligning with Trump's preferences, but may face challenges in building consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [8].

当科技巨头们还在为台积电的晶圆产能激烈竞争时，英伟达CEO黄仁勋已经将目光投向了更长远的目标—— 直接锁定台积电未来工厂的土地。 这一策略凸显出英伟达在AI芯片需求爆发背景下，正试图从根本上确保其供应链安全。 1月15日，天风国际证券分析师郭明錤发推文称，"大多数客户协商的是保证产能，而黄仁勋协商的是土地。" 郭明錤指出，在去年11月访问台南时，黄仁勋向台积电表示愿意付费确保Fab 18厂区旁预留的P10和P11地块，其最终目标是连P12地块也一并拿下。当时， Fab 18的规划仅明确定义到P1至P9。 这标志着黄仁勋 自2025年初以来第五次访问中国台湾。 英伟达在台北北投士林科技园区T17和T18地块的新办公室计划已经敲定，显示出该公司对中国台湾供 应链的长期承诺。 产能争夺战重塑客户格局 根据Culpium的分析和供应链消息人士透露，英伟达可能在2025年至少一到两个季度超越苹果，成为台积电最大客户。 虽然台积电首席财务官黄仲达拒绝就 这一举措正值台积电宣布2026年资本支出将达到520亿至560亿美元的创纪录水平，远超市场此前预期的450亿至520亿美元。台积电在财报电话会议上明确表 示， 英伟达的强 ...

这意味着，阿里 AI的"最强大脑"开始与物理世界的"最强履约"合体。千问App不再只是能生成代码的聊天机器人，而是第一次长出了"手脚"：能把需求直 接变成交易与交付，向"AI办事时代"迈进。 全球 AI竞赛的焦点，也在从"谁的模型更聪明"，迅速转向"谁能更完整地履约"。 千问 C端事业群总裁吴嘉与华尔街见闻对话时表示，AI真正的分水岭不在于模型能说 的 多漂亮，而在于能否在复杂场景里完成交付：简单问题就简单回 答，复杂问题就要多轮沟通、把需求校准到位。 2026年1月15日，AI迎来一次新的重要变革。 当天，千问 App上线400+项新功能，并全面接入淘宝闪购、支付宝、淘宝、飞猪、高德 等 阿里生态 。 更重要的是，它把 "推荐—下单—支付—履约"拉进同一个应用里：用户在千问App内即可点外卖、买商品、订机票、订酒店，成为全球首个实现 AI 超级 应用（Super App）内闭环的案例。 从去年的淘宝闪购，到今天的千问 Super App，阿里在大消费与 AI 两条战线的"聚合趋势"越来越清晰：各业务不再各自为战，而是围绕同一个AI入口协 同作战。 由 AI作为 粘合剂 ， 也将 有望 带动 阿里所有 资产 ...