张坤有句名言：一个基金经理在从业历史上，至少应该敢于对抗市场两三次。 2025年2季度，或许是他再次"对抗"市场的时候。 当季度，市场上演"V"型反转，各板块差距迅速拉大。从风格指数看，全季度唯有金融股和港股"二枝独秀"，其余宽基和行业指数多数表现平平。 以下文章来源于资本深潜号 ，作者资本深潜号 资本深潜号 . 专注资本背后的硬核故事 同期，张坤管理的四个基金中有三个基金（易方达优质企业、易方达蓝筹、易方达优质精选）出现阶段性落后基准7.5个百分点以上的情况，唯有主投境外的易 方达亚洲精选取得明显收益，并与基准基本"打平"。 这样的关键时刻，张坤会做何应对？ 答案是—— 再次"旗帜鲜明"的坚持己见，并与市场共识"拉开距离"。 当季度，张坤至少从三个层面坚持了自己的看法（根据季报显示）。 在宏观经济层面 ，张坤认为，市场（投资者）将近两年中国经济的情况线性外推，导致长期国债利率维持在与经济潜力不匹配的水平。对此张坤明确表 示："我们并不认同"。 在上市公司业绩层面， 张坤认为，我国人均 GDP 仍然是发展中国家水平，未来只要充分发挥市场经济的力量和个体的主观能动性，叠加科技进步，有望带动 经济增长并反映到优质 ...

尽管日本自民党执政联盟在参议院选举中失去多数地位，日元和日股期货却意外上涨。 据新华社报道，在20日举行的日本第27届参议院选举中，由自民党和公明党组成的执政联盟丧失参议院过半数议席。 这是自民党自1955年成立以来，首次在 国会众参两院都未能取得过半数席位。 选举结果出炉后， 日元兑美元盘初一度上涨0.7%，最高升至147.79，但随后回吐部分涨幅至148.48，随后日元再度拉升至147.80附近。 日本首相石破茂在周一举行的新闻发布会上暗示他打算继续留任。由于日本股市和债市适逢国定假日休市， 日元成为投资者关注的关键资产。 市场分析显示，投资者对自民党失去联盟多数地位的结果已有预期，但实际选举结果相对温和，避免了更为严重的政治动荡情形。 青空银行首席市场策略师Akira Moroga表示：" 一些投资者此前已为联盟遭受更大挫败甚至石破茂辞职做好了准备，随着此类头寸的平仓以及政治风险事件过 去带来的缓解情绪，促成了日元的初步反弹。 " 尽管日元走高，但是 多家投行策略师不看好日元走势 ，美银维持对日元的看空立场，认为即使出现短期反弹也应逢高做空。 汇丰银行更是发出惊人的预警，称由于政治和日本央行风险，美元/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid rise of Ant Group's AI health application AQ, which topped the Apple App Store's medical category within 24 hours of its launch, highlighting the significant interest and investment in the AI healthcare sector by major companies like Tencent, Baidu, JD, and ByteDance [2][22]. Group 1: AQ Application Features - AQ is designed to replicate real diagnostic processes, addressing the common issue of users struggling to describe complex symptoms accurately through its "AI clinic" feature that allows for follow-up questions [4]. - The application can interpret medical reports and compare multiple reports, achieving over 90% accuracy and covering 99% of common report types, which is crucial given that over 90% of users cannot understand medical reports [5]. - AQ includes a "famous doctor AI avatar" feature, trained on the expertise of nearly 200 top specialists, significantly enhancing its service capacity compared to traditional consultations [5]. Group 2: Integration with Hardware and Data - AQ integrates with Apple's HealthKit, allowing it to access continuous health data from devices like iPhones and Apple Watches, thus creating a comprehensive personal health profile [6][9]. - This integration shifts health management from a reactive to a proactive approach, enabling continuous health monitoring and intervention [8]. - Ant Group aims to become the central hub for personal health data by connecting with various wearable devices and health management tools [9]. Group 3: Long-term Strategy and Market Position - Ant Group's healthcare strategy is built on a decade of groundwork, starting with the launch of mobile appointment and payment services in 2014, leading to deep connections with over 5,000 public hospitals [10][11]. - The company has established a large user base accustomed to handling sensitive medical transactions through its platform, which is a significant asset [11][12]. - Ant Group's approach focuses on creating a three-dimensional service system connecting users, doctors, and healthcare institutions, leveraging its established payment and insurance infrastructure [12]. Group 4: Market Potential and Competitive Landscape - The AI healthcare market in China is projected to grow from 8.8 billion yuan in 2023 to 315.7 billion yuan by 2033, with the broader health management market expected to reach 2.59 trillion yuan by 2027 [14]. - The competitive landscape features major players like Tencent, Baidu, JD, and ByteDance, each leveraging their strengths, while Ant Group occupies a unique position in the highly regulated financial and insurance transaction layer [15][17]. Group 5: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the promising outlook, the AI healthcare sector faces challenges such as data silos, varying data quality, and the need for clear, scalable business models [18][19]. - Ant Group's strategy of building a robust foundational infrastructure before pursuing commercialization is seen as a prudent approach in this slow-moving industry [19]. - The ultimate vision for AI healthcare extends beyond convenience in treatment to personalized and predictive health management, indicating a long-term commitment to innovation in this field [20][21].

上纬新材连续9个交易日一字涨停，刷新A股"20cm"连板纪录，累计大涨超410%，最新报40.16元/股，最 新市值为162亿元。 此前中航成飞在2023年2月2日至2月13日，创下连续8个"20cm"一字涨停板的纪录。 上纬新材公司原属于新材料板块，因智元拟入主，被归到人形机器人概念。 对此，有不少人评价，智元机器人可能会借壳上市，成为人形机器人第一股。不过，上纬新材也回应表 示，该次行动仅为收购控股权，不构成《重大资产重组办法》所定义的借壳上市。 7月9日，上纬新材开市复牌后20%涨停，至此开始一路涨停板。 ⭐星标华尔街见闻，好内容不错过 ⭐ 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 觉得好看，请点"在看" ...

Core Viewpoint - OpenAI, despite its leading position in the AI industry, faces significant challenges both externally from competition and internally from its unique organizational structure [2][11][16]. External Challenges - OpenAI's competitive edge is eroding due to rapid technological advancements and the trend towards model commoditization, leading to a price war in the industry [3][4]. - The performance of OpenAI's flagship model, GPT-4, has significantly declined, dropping to the 95th position in user preference rankings, while competitors like Google's Gemini 2.5 Pro have emerged as more cost-effective alternatives [3][5]. - OpenAI has reduced the API pricing of its o3 model by 80% to compete with lower-cost models, indicating a shift in focus from performance to price-to-performance metrics [5]. Strategic Shifts - OpenAI is transitioning from a model-centric approach to developing an "intelligent agent ecosystem" to create a more sustainable competitive advantage [7][10]. - The company is investing in AI agents and hardware, with expectations that AI Agents revenue could grow from approximately $3 billion to $29 billion by 2029 [8]. - OpenAI is diversifying its revenue streams beyond subscriptions and API fees, exploring consulting services and potential advertising revenue [9][10]. Internal Challenges - OpenAI's unique governance structure, where a non-profit organization controls a for-profit entity, is becoming a hindrance to its growth and operational flexibility [11][12]. - The recent turmoil surrounding the CEO's dismissal and failed acquisitions highlights the risks associated with this governance model [12][14]. - A significant $40 billion financing deal is contingent upon restructuring this governance model, creating an urgent need for reform [13][14]. Conclusion - OpenAI remains a dominant player in the AI sector but is engaged in a complex battle on multiple fronts, facing external competition and internal structural challenges that threaten its future [15][16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the US stock market, particularly the Nasdaq, has raised concerns as Bank of America's chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett indicates that all proprietary trading rules have triggered sell signals, suggesting a potential market correction [1][3]. Group 1: Market Signals - The stock market has reached critical technical thresholds, with multiple indicators showing that risks are accumulating [2]. - Hartnett's latest "Flow Show" report highlights that the Bank of America fund manager survey's cash rules, global breadth rules, and global fund flow trading rules have all issued sell signals [3][9]. - The proportion of cash held by fund managers has dropped to 3.9%, triggering a sell signal; historically, such signals have led to an average decline of 2% in the S&P 500 index [4][10]. Group 2: Bond Market Concerns - Hartnett believes that the true catalyst for a sell-off may not be in the stock market but rather in the bond market. A breakout of the 30-year US Treasury yield above 5% could shift market sentiment from "risk-on" to "risk-off" [4][14]. - The 30-year Treasury yield briefly surpassed 5% amid fears of potential actions by Trump against Powell, with current yields at 5.1% in the US, 5.6% in the UK, and 3.2% in Japan [15]. Group 3: Market Breadth and Economic Indicators - Despite the stock market reaching new highs, market breadth is at historical lows, indicating potential economic slowdown or a bubble in US equities [5][20]. - The equal-weighted S&P 500 index relative to the S&P 500 is at a 22-year low, and the Russell 2000 index is near a 25-year low, suggesting a concentration of performance among a few tech giants [21][26]. Group 4: Historical Context and Policy Implications - Hartnett draws parallels between current events and the policy conflicts of the 1970s, particularly regarding Trump's relationship with the Federal Reserve and potential repercussions if Powell were to be ousted [6][27]. - The historical context includes Nixon's economic policies in the early 1970s, which led to a cycle of initial prosperity followed by a downturn, suggesting that similar outcomes could occur if current policies shift dramatically [28][31].

尽管总统特朗普一再流露出可能罢免鲍威尔的意向，但其核心圈内的关键人物——财政部长贝森特已成 为主要的内部反对声音。 据媒体20日报道，贝森特向特朗普表示， 鉴于当前经济运行良好，且市场对特朗普的政策反应积极， 罢免鲍威尔并无必要。 他同时提醒特朗普， 美联储官员已发出信号，可能在年底前降息两次，这本身 就在朝着特朗普期望的方向发展。 贝森特还告诉特朗普，即便总统强行解雇鲍威尔，鲍威尔也可能提起诉讼， 而这场官司可能会拖到明 年春天——届时鲍威尔的任期本就将结束。 除了眼前的障碍，贝森特还告诉总统，其实他已经走在塑造美联储的道路上了。美联储理事阿德里安娜 ·库格勒的任期将于明年1月结束，而鲍威尔的主席任期将在5月结束。 届时，特朗普将可以填补一到两 个职位空缺。 这一内部建言发生之际，关于解雇鲍威尔的猜测在上周再度公开化。 据华尔街见闻此前文章 ，一名白宫高级官员周三表示，总统在最近一次会议上向共和党议员暗示，他 可能很快会采取行动解雇鲍威尔，尽管特朗普本人在当天晚些时候向记者否认了这一计划。 此次风波短暂地搅动了金融市场。许多投资者认为，因政策分歧而试图撤换央行官员，可能会逐步侵蚀 美联储的独立性，即其在必要 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Events - The People's Bank of China announced the July Loan Prime Rates (LPR) with the five-year rate at 3.5% and the one-year rate at 3% [2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain the policy rate at 2% during the upcoming meeting on July 24, following eight rate cuts [8] - The U.S. reported a significant increase in durable goods orders for June, with a preliminary month-on-month growth of 16.4%, the largest since July 2014, driven by a 230% increase in aircraft orders [9] Group 2: Company Earnings Reports - Google (Alphabet) is set to release its Q2 earnings on July 23, with expected revenue of $93.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and an EPS of $2.17, up 15% [25] - Tesla will also report its Q2 earnings on July 23, with anticipated revenue of $22.83 billion, a decrease of 10.46% year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of $1.533 billion, down 15.38% [26] - Other companies such as SAP, Lockheed Martin, Coca-Cola, and General Motors are also scheduled to announce their Q2 earnings [27] Group 3: Political Events and Implications - The results of Japan's 27th House of Councillors election are expected to impact the political landscape, with the ruling coalition needing to secure at least 50 seats to maintain a majority [12][13] - The election comes amid declining support for Prime Minister Kishida's cabinet, which could lead to significant political instability if the ruling coalition loses its majority [14][15] Group 4: Upcoming Conferences and Expositions - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference will take place from July 26 to 28, showcasing over 3,000 cutting-edge exhibits, including AI models and robots [18][19] - The first Shanghai International Low Altitude Economy Expo is scheduled for July 23 to 26, featuring various aviation-related events [20] - The 24th China Internet Conference will be held from July 23 to 25, focusing on AI, 5G-A/6G, and low-altitude economy [22]

以下文章来源于牛弹琴 ，作者牛弹琴 牛弹琴 . 最睿智地解读国际风云、财经要闻，传播正能量 来源：牛弹琴（ID：bullpiano），作者牛弹琴。 特朗普的最大麻烦来了。 但让全世界哭笑不得的是，这个麻烦，居然不是他向全世界征税，也不是他藐视美国法庭，更不是他威胁炒掉美联储主席，而是他20年前神秘的一幅画。 没错， 按照《华尔街日报》独家披露，他当时为一个特殊的对象，画了一幅很不高雅的美女局部图。 这就不得不提现在美国最大的热点——正闹得沸沸扬扬的"爱泼斯坦门"。 爱泼斯坦曾是一名美国金融家，与克林顿、特朗普、安德鲁王子等西方政商名流，交往甚密。 2019年7月，爱泼斯坦突然被逮捕，罪名让全世界大吃一惊——他将位于美属维尔京群岛的私人岛屿打造为"成人乐园"，供这些名流享乐，不少未成年女 孩被强迫接客，成为受害者。 据说，爱泼斯坦有一个"客户名单"，他还录有很多高级客户的动作片视频。 但一个月后，爱泼斯坦在美国监狱中神秘死亡。 谁干的？ 美国人普遍不相信这是自杀，认为里面必定藏着更大的阴谋。去年大选期间，特朗普就承诺，上台后要揭露案件真相，公布传说中的"客户名单"。 但真上了台，查来查去，美国司法部和FBI不久 ...

特朗普称，稳定币将增加对美国国债的需求、降低美国利率并确保美元的全球储备货币地位。 特朗普开启第二任期以来，推出多项举措支持加密货币。美国近期快马加鞭推动《天才法案》的相关立法进程，将对美国产生什么影响？ 7月18日，特朗普正式签署《天才法案》。 快马加鞭推动立法进程 6月17日 ， 美国参议院以68票对30票的结果通过《天才法案》 ，标志着该院首次批准主要的加密货币立法。 7月17日 ，美国众议院经表决通过 《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》 《数字资产市场清晰法案》 《反中央银行数字货币监控国家法案》三项 有关稳定币等加密数字货币的法案。 7月18日 ， 美国总统特朗普签署《天才法案》，并称其为"金融科技自互联网诞生以来最伟大的变革之一" 。同时他重申"绝不会允许在美国设立中央 银行数字货币"。 当地时间18日， 美国总统特朗普在白宫正式签署《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》 （简称《天才法案》），标志着美国首次正式确立数字稳定 币的监 管框架。 三问美加密货币相关法案 1）什么是稳定币？ 加密货币通过算法生成，采用去中心化模式，持有者按算法更新数量 ， 主要加密货币包括比特币、稳定币等 。 稳定币与 ...