哈塞特势头不稳，特朗普亲信推举沃什当美联储主席。德银分析沃什若当选美联储主席，其政策主张可能呈现"降息与缩表并行"的独特组合。 华尔街见闻提及，当地时间周一，据媒体援引知情人士透露，曾被市场视为几乎板上钉钉的美联储主席候选人凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett），正遭遇特朗普 亲信的阻力。 外界担忧这位国家经济委员会主任与特朗普的关系过于密切。上周五特朗普称，前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）已与凯文·哈塞特并列，成为美联储主 席候选名单中的领先人选。他表示： 我认为这两位凯文都很棒。 特朗普的上述表态导致预测市场Kalshi上哈塞特的胜算大幅下滑。尽管仍是最被看好的候选人，胜率为51%，但已明显低于本月早些时候超过80%的高点。沃 什目前的胜率为44%，而12月初时仅约11%。 12月15日，追风交易台消息，德意志银行的Matthew Luzzetti团队发表研报，深度解析了沃什的政策主张。 研报分析若沃什当选，他将支持降息但同时会要求 缩减资产负债表。 研报指出，"降息与缩表并行"的前提是监管改革降低银行的储备金需求，短期内可行性存疑 。 德银认为，市场需要密切关注新任主席能否在特朗普要 ...

影石无人机 "影翎 Antigravity A1 "（下称" A1 "）刚开启上市首销，争议便扑面而来。 不实销量数据、非正常舆论攻击等声音 在市场中发酵， 掩盖了 这款首销不足 1 周的无人机新品 真实 市场表现 。 对此，影石 创始人 刘靖康日前发布内部信回应称： "影翎仅中国区 48 小时就卖了 3000 多万元。" 争议与热销的数据所形成的强烈反差折射了市场对于这款无人机空前的关注。 外界的质疑与关注本质上都指向影石能否复刻过往的成功。 这家在全景相机领域曾通过 "错位竞争"逆袭 GoPro 的公司，这一次用同样的逻辑重新定义"飞行"的门槛，即不是教育用户去学运镜，而是通过"全景记 录 + 沉浸式体验"抹平技能差异，推动无人机用户群体的扩容。 面对一个增长已显疲态的市场，影石能否凭借全新的用户体验曲线 挖掘新的增量空间 ，正受到关注。 行业十字路口 当前消费级无人机市场正在面临一个关键的商业难题：在性能参数几乎被推至极限后，下一个增长点在哪里？ 据 Frost&Sullivan 发布的数据， 2019-2024 年全球民用无人机市场的复合增长率为 24.14% ，但消费级跑输大盘，同期复合年均增长率只 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nasdaq plans to extend trading hours for stocks and exchange-traded products from 16 hours to 23 hours per week, aiming to meet the growing global demand for U.S. stocks [1][4][6] Group 1: Trading Hours Extension - Nasdaq will submit a proposal to the SEC on December 15 to implement nearly round-the-clock trading, with the new schedule set to begin in the second half of 2026 [2][9] - The new trading schedule will include two trading sessions: a daytime session from 4 AM to 8 PM and a nighttime session from 9 PM to 4 AM [4][5] - The trading week will start on Sunday at 9 PM and end on Friday at 8 PM [5] Group 2: Market Demand and Globalization - There has been a significant increase in investor demand for continuous trading of U.S. stocks, prompting regulatory changes and proposals from major exchanges [7][10] - Nasdaq's senior vice president Chuck Mack emphasized the globalization of markets and the need for international investors to trade according to their local schedules [7][12] - The U.S. stock market accounts for nearly two-thirds of the global market capitalization, with foreign investors holding $17 trillion in U.S. stocks as of last year [10] Group 3: Industry Trends and Challenges - Other exchanges, such as the New York Stock Exchange and Chicago Board Options Exchange, are also pursuing similar plans for extended trading hours, indicating a mainstream trend in the U.S. capital markets [2][9] - Concerns from Wall Street institutions regarding liquidity, volatility, and uncertain returns have been noted, although demand for nighttime trading has been rapidly increasing [11] - Nasdaq has previously submitted proposals for trading tokenized stocks, reflecting its commitment to innovation in response to market trends [12]

Core Viewpoint - A significant "technical storm" driven by index rules is anticipated, primarily affecting the strong-performing gold and silver markets [2] Group 1: Technical Adjustments and Market Impact - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is set for annual weight rebalancing in January 2026, which is expected to exert substantial selling pressure on gold and silver futures [3][4] - Gold and silver have outperformed other commodities over the past three years, leading to an elevated weight in the BCOM index, necessitating passive funds to sell positions during the rebalancing [5] - The report predicts a staggering sell-off scale, with silver facing the heaviest pressure, estimated at about 9% of its total open contracts, while gold is expected to see a sell-off of approximately 3% [6][7] Group 2: Seasonal Trends vs. Technical Selling - January will present a battleground of bullish seasonal trends against bearish technical selling for gold investors [9] - Historically, gold prices have averaged a 4.6% increase during the last ten trading days of the year to the first twenty trading days of the next year, with an 80% probability of rising [10] - The anticipated technical selling pressure from index rebalancing may counteract the traditional seasonal bullish trend, particularly for silver, which faces greater selling pressure this year [12] Group 3: Broader Commodity Market Effects - The rebalancing will impact various commodities beyond precious metals, creating complex long and short dynamics across different indices [13] - Cocoa is expected to be the biggest winner, with anticipated buying pressure equivalent to 22% of its total open contracts due to its re-inclusion in the BCOM index [14] - The energy market will see minimal overall impact, but natural gas may experience selling pressure of about 3% of its total open contracts [15] - Industrial metals will see mild buying pressure, particularly lead, which is projected to receive about 3% of its total open contracts [16] Group 4: Market Volatility and Key Observations - The rebalancing involves not only BCOM but also the S&P GSCI index, with overlapping adjustment windows from January 8 to 15, 2026 [18] - The total assets tracking BCOM exceed $60 billion, indicating that such a large-scale adjustment will amplify market volatility [19] - Notable discrepancies in adjustment directions between BCOM and S&P GSCI could trigger cross-index arbitrage activities and unusual market fluctuations, making the second week of January 2026 a critical observation period for investors [19]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's uncertainty regarding whether his economic policies will help the Republican Party win the upcoming midterm elections reflects a disconnect between economic data and voter sentiment [1][2]. Economic Performance - Despite boasting about creating a strong economy, Trump acknowledges that the full effects of recent economic activities may not be felt until the second quarter of next year [1]. - Employment growth has been slow, and the unemployment rate has risen, leading many Americans to not feel the benefits of macroeconomic growth [2]. Federal Reserve Criticism - Trump expresses frustration with the Federal Reserve, suggesting that the market's negative reaction to positive economic news is due to fears of a hawkish stance from the Fed [3][4]. - He challenges the traditional data-driven decision-making of the Fed, arguing that good news should not automatically lead to higher interest rates [4][5]. Tariff Policy - Trump reiterates his reliance on tariffs, claiming they have brought wealth to the U.S. and provided leverage in international negotiations [6]. - His tariff policies are facing scrutiny from the Supreme Court, and he warns that a ruling against them would be detrimental to the U.S. [7]. Government Intervention - Trump defends direct government intervention in the economy, indicating that the government is considering investing in defense and semiconductor companies [7]. - This industrial policy approach could have significant implications for investors and market structures in related sectors [7]. Inflation Challenges - Inflation remains a core challenge for Trump, who blames it on the previous administration while claiming to have reduced prices [9]. - Rising prices for essential goods like coffee and beef have become a point of attack for Democrats, highlighting the impact of Trump's economic policies on household costs [9].

Core Insights - The article discusses a fundamental shift in artificial intelligence from the digital realm to the physical world, predicting a global robotics hardware market worth up to $25 trillion by 2050, driven by advancements in AI technology [1][3]. Market Growth Projections - Morgan Stanley's global robotics model forecasts that global robotics hardware sales will surge from approximately $100 billion in 2025 to $500 billion by 2030, reaching $9 trillion by 2040 and $25 trillion by 2050 [1][4]. - By 2050, it is expected that 1.4 billion robots will be sold globally, with a total of 6.5 billion operational robots [4]. Diverse Robot Forms - The types of robots will be highly diverse, including industrial robots, service robots, drones, autonomous vehicles, humanoid robots, and household robots, applicable across various sectors such as manufacturing, healthcare, agriculture, transportation, defense, and space exploration [6]. Component Demand Surge - The explosive growth of the robotics industry will create significant opportunities for upstream component suppliers. By 2050, the demand for key components will include 5.7 billion cameras, 27 billion motors, 41 billion bearings, and 1.25 million ExaFLOPS of edge computing capacity, among others [8][9]. Investment Opportunities - The demand surge will present major business opportunities for suppliers of motors, bearings, rare earth materials, cameras, sensors, AI chips, and batteries. Small drones and low-altitude robotic systems are identified as the most promising investment areas due to factors such as ease of navigation, government prioritization following lessons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the maturation of regulatory frameworks [9]. China's Competitive Advantage - China is highlighted as having a clear competitive edge in the robotics sector, particularly in manufacturing capabilities, control of rare earth materials, and policy support. The country is expected to maintain and expand its leading position over the next decade [3][14]. - By 2025, investments in the robotics and drone sectors in China are projected to exceed $30 billion, with AI-related financing reaching $260 billion, indicating China's significant role in the global market [14]. Market Share and Future Outlook - By 2050, China is anticipated to account for approximately 26% of global robot sales, with even higher shares in industrial robots and drones. Morgan Stanley notes that China holds a dominant position in the humanoid robot supply chain, particularly in the "body" segment [15]. - Manufacturing capability is identified as the core competitive advantage in the era of embodied intelligence, contrasting with the previous focus on software and algorithms in the digital AI era [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of Nova Coffee as a new benchmark in the Chinese coffee market, highlighting its rapid expansion and innovative business model that focuses on sustainable growth rather than mere scale [4][6]. Group 1: Growth Model - Nova Coffee has achieved a remarkable GMV growth of 400% year-on-year while maintaining a strong cup volume increase, indicating effective expansion rather than superficial growth [20][22]. - The company has a monthly store opening rate of approximately 1,000, with peak months reaching 1,800 new stores, surpassing historical expansion rates of competitors like Starbucks and Luckin Coffee [13][15]. - Nova's growth is characterized by a "speed and quality" model, breaking the traditional "scale paradox" where rapid expansion often leads to diminishing returns [10][11]. Group 2: Competitive Barriers - Nova Coffee has established a three-dimensional differentiation barrier by reconstructing "people, goods, and scenes," allowing it to maintain pricing power amidst fierce competition [30]. - The company focuses on health-conscious products, positioning itself against the trend of high-sugar offerings, thus capturing a unique market segment [31]. - Nova operates 24/7, maximizing asset utilization and enhancing ROI by breaking traditional time constraints in coffee shop operations [32][38]. Group 3: Digitalization and Delivery - Nova Coffee leverages its strong digital capabilities and delivery systems to capture online traffic, positioning itself as a "full-service flow operation center" [45][49]. - The company has amassed tens of millions of new members, creating a valuable digital asset that drives business decisions and enhances customer retention [47][48]. - Nova's external partnerships enable it to tap into the growing online food delivery market, which has seen daily orders increase from 100 million to 200 million [42][44]. Group 4: Future Growth Potential - The article posits that Nova Coffee's current scale is just the beginning, as it explores a "joint operation model" that allows for extensive market penetration without the traditional overhead costs [52][60]. - This model enables Nova to partner with existing retail outlets, significantly lowering the barriers to entry for coffee sales in various locations [53][59]. - The potential market for Nova is vast, with opportunities to penetrate millions of retail locations across China, far exceeding the limitations of traditional coffee shop models [60][64].

Economic Data and Events - China's real estate development investment from January to November is expected to decline by 14.7% [3] - China's industrial added value for November is projected to grow by 4.9% year-on-year [3] - China's retail sales of consumer goods for November are anticipated to increase by 2.9% year-on-year [3] - Japan's November CPI is expected to be 2.9% year-on-year, with a core CPI forecasted to remain at 3.0% [7][10] - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for November is expected to show an increase of 130,000 jobs, following a decrease of 10,000 jobs in October [8][10] Central Bank Decisions - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% during its meeting on December 19 [7] - The European Central Bank is anticipated to maintain its interest rates, with no rate cuts expected until 2026 [11] - The Bank of England is likely to lower its interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, potentially marking the end of the rate-cutting cycle [12] Corporate Events and Financial Reports - Micron Technology and Nike are set to release their financial reports, with expectations of revenue growth and positive earnings per share [35] - The first MUSA Developer Conference by Moore Threads will unveil a new generation of GPU architecture [16] - ByteDance's Volcano Engine is expected to announce significant upgrades or new products at the FORCE conference [17] Market Impact and Trends - The Federal Reserve's Reserve Management Plan (RMP) involves purchasing $40 billion in short-term government bonds monthly, indicating a strong commitment to market support [20] - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to impact sectors such as duty-free retail and modern logistics [19] - The upcoming Alpha Summit aims to explore macroeconomic and financial market trends, providing insights into investment opportunities for 2026 [34]

Core Viewpoint - A recent report from BCA Research indicates that the biggest threat to the U.S. economy in 2026 may stem from the financial markets themselves, rather than an economic recession dragging down the stock market. The report suggests that a potential stock market crash could directly push the U.S. economy into recession, challenging conventional market views [1][2]. Economic Structure and Risks - The report highlights a significant structural change in the U.S. labor market, with approximately 2.5 million "excess retirees" whose consumption is closely tied to stock market performance. This group has retired early due to the pandemic and the subsequent stock market boom, creating a demand side that is sensitive to stock market fluctuations [1][3][5]. - The consumption of these retirees injects strong demand into the U.S. economy, but their retirement means they do not contribute to labor supply, leading to a constrained labor market. This situation creates a delicate balance where strong demand exists alongside limited supply, preventing a recession driven by weak demand [5][7]. Federal Reserve's Dilemma - BCA Research outlines a dilemma for the Federal Reserve: maintaining a 2% inflation target while avoiding a recession. The report predicts that the Fed will prioritize preventing a market crash over its inflation target, potentially allowing inflation to rise above 2% and adopting aggressive rate cuts in response to any signs of economic or market weakness [2][8]. Market Concentration and Challenges - The report notes that the current market rally is historically concentrated, with about two-thirds of global stock market value concentrated in U.S. stocks, and 40% of that in just ten stocks. This concentration poses risks, as the fortunes of these stocks are heavily tied to the success of the generative AI narrative [9][11]. - However, there are signs of divergence among leading tech stocks, indicating that the market is not treating all tech stocks as a single entity. This divergence suggests that value investors are still assessing individual company valuations [11][12]. Investment Opportunities - BCA Research suggests that as the era of U.S. tech stocks outperforming the market may be coming to an end, funds could rotate into undervalued sectors and regions, such as healthcare and European markets. Unlike the U.S., Europe does not face inflationary pressures caused by labor market distortions, creating a favorable environment for the bond market [12].

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant shift in the relationship between the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve, suggesting a de facto "merger" of their balance sheets, with Treasury Secretary Yellen playing a pivotal role as an "shadow Fed Chair" [1][4] - The Federal Reserve plans to restart asset purchases, beginning with $40 billion in Treasury bills in January, which is seen as a commitment to finance Treasury expenditures and stabilize market interest rates [1][3] - This new framework indicates that the market's ability to signal government spending limits through interest rates will be diminished, leading to a tighter coordination of policies between the Treasury and the Fed [4][5] Treasury and Federal Reserve Merger - The Federal Reserve's decision to resume bond purchases fundamentally alters traditional market dynamics, as it aims to set money market rates rather than manage them through open market operations [3] - The Fed's actions are intended to ensure that Treasury spending can be financed without causing interest rate "blockages," effectively merging the operational roles of the two institutions [4] New Power Structure - Should Kevin Hassett be confirmed as a potential Fed official, Secretary Yellen will effectively become his "boss," establishing a "single presidential authority" for daily communication and coordination [5] - The goal is to achieve low financing costs by injecting liquidity into the short end of the market, which is expected to contribute to rising inflation expectations by 2026 [5] Economic Outlook - The article highlights a concerning economic outlook, with recent labor data revisions indicating a downward trend in employment, suggesting a potential for further Fed rate cuts [7][8] - While short-term monetary easing is anticipated, long-term inflation risks remain, with fiscal policy expected to support economic activity and inflation potentially resurfacing in late 2026 or 2027 [8]