投资者获利回吐叠加特朗普政府暂缓对关键矿产征收关税，令一年多来涨势凶猛的白银从纪录高位回撤。 现货白银一度跌超7%，不过尾盘收复大部分跌幅。 在完成长达数月的国家安全审查后，特朗普政府决定暂不对包括白银和铂金在内的关键矿产征收全面关税，转而寻求双边谈判并考虑设定价格底线。 这一决定显著缓解了市场对美国采取全面关税措施的担忧，此前关税预期曾促使大量白银库存留在美国仓库，助推了2025年的全球轧空行情。 见闻君在1月9日的文章中提及 ，白银大概率避免关税，或将面临价格修正。 文章援引花旗观点称， 由于美国对进口白银严重依赖，花旗研究团队倾向于白银不征收关税的基本情景。 从历史高位的租赁利率可以看出，目前美国以外市 场，白银正处于严重的实物短缺状态。而无关税将激励金属从美国流出，缓解全球市场紧张， 白银价格可能面临临时性回调压力。 尽管短期出现剧烈波动，华尔街策略师仍 看好白银中期前景 。华侨银行策略师Christopher Wong表示，供应缺口、工业消费以及来自黄金的溢出需求将继续 支撑银价，但近期走势速度之快意味着，短期内需要保持谨慎。 白银在周四连续第四日刷新盘中历史高位后急跌，前四个交易日累涨超20%。今 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has unexpectedly become a "folk hero," with public admiration for his leadership capabilities, as noted by financial journalist Nick Timiraos [1][3]. Group 1: Leadership and Perception - Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson expressed that many, including herself, are impressed by Powell's leadership, highlighting his effectiveness as a chairman [3]. - Paulson emphasized the importance of creating an environment conducive to beneficial decision-making for both the institution and the economy, which Powell has successfully fostered [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Decisions - Paulson aligns with the mainstream view among market participants and officials that there is no need for an immediate rate cut, having supported recent reductions in the short-term benchmark rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75% [4]. - She anticipates substantial progress in inflation returning to the Fed's 2% target by year-end, but is open to maintaining current rates during the upcoming January meeting [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Labor Market - Paulson is particularly focused on the upcoming January price data, as it may reflect significant price adjustments by businesses at the start of the year [5]. - She noted that the current labor market risks slightly outweigh the risks of persistent inflation, with a significant portion of job growth concentrated in the healthcare and social assistance sector [6]. Group 4: Inflation Outlook - Compared to some colleagues, Paulson has less concern about inflation, observing signs that last year's price increases may recede this year, as businesses are more cautious about raising prices [7]. - She highlighted that companies are now more focused on maintaining market share rather than aggressively increasing prices, indicating a more prudent approach to pricing strategies [7].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's latest financial report significantly exceeded expectations, showcasing strong performance with a gross margin surpassing 60% for the first time and a net profit of $16 billion, which was above analyst forecasts [1][3]. Financial Performance - TSMC achieved a gross margin of 62.3% in Q4, exceeding the previous guidance of 59%-61% and market expectations of 60.8%. The operating profit margin reached 54%, also surpassing the market's 51% forecast [5]. - The company raised its Q1 gross margin guidance to 63%-65%, significantly higher than Bank of America Merrill Lynch's estimate of 60.9% and the market's general expectation of 60.0% [5]. - TSMC has increased its long-term structural gross margin target from "53% and above" to "56% and above," driven by improved pricing power and operational efficiency [5]. Capital Expenditure and Growth Outlook - TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $52-56 billion, nearly 40% higher than previous expectations of $45-46 billion, signaling a strong commitment to the AI chip sector [2][4]. - The company expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% for revenue from 2024 to 2029, up from the previous estimate of 20%. The revenue CAGR for AI accelerator business is projected to rise from "mid-40%" to "mid-50%" [4]. - TSMC anticipates nearly 30% year-over-year revenue growth in 2026, exceeding the market's prior expectation of a 20% mid-range growth rate [4]. Market Position and Industry Impact - TSMC's strong performance and capital expenditure outlook are expected to benefit the Asian semiconductor equipment sector, with companies like Tokyo Electron and Advantest anticipated to see significant gains [8]. - The company is viewed as a critical capacity bottleneck in the AI industry, and its increased capital investment signals a positive outlook for the semiconductor and AI sectors [9]. - TSMC's leadership in advanced process technology and its strategic shift towards advanced packaging are contributing to stable and sustainable capacity utilization levels [6].

该公司同时发布的第一季度业绩指引超出市场预期。 台积电预计本季度营收将达346亿至358亿美元，高于彭博一致预期的332.2亿美元。毛利率和营业利率指 引也明显优于分析师预期，分别为63%-65%和54%-56%，远高于市场预估的59.6%和49.7%。 管理层表示： "未来三年资本支出将显著增加。实现56%及以上长期毛利率是可实现的。……产能非常紧张。" 资本开支大幅提升 台积电预计2026年资本支出将激增至560亿美元，超出市场预期，凸显其对全球AI繁荣持续性的强烈信心。公司同时预测2026年营收增长将接近30%，高于分 析师平均预期。 15日，台积电董事长兼首席执行官 C.C. Wei 与财务长 Wendell Huang举行2025 Q4绩后法说会。 台积电公布2026年资本支出计划最高将达560亿美元，较 2025年实际支出409亿美元大幅增长37%，创下该公司历史新高。 这一破纪录的投资规模凸显出全球最大芯片代工厂正加速扩充产能，以满足人工智能芯片的 强劲需求。 台积电仍然依赖苹果iPhone和使用高通先进处理器的智能手机获取大量业务。据彭博报道，市场普遍预期内存短缺将影响2026年移动设备销售， ...

Core Viewpoint - The transition of high-energy AI computing to space is moving from theoretical discussions to economically viable validation, with the cost gap between space and terrestrial data centers rapidly narrowing [2][3]. Cost Gap Rapidly Closing - Deutsche Bank's model indicates that while the current cost of deploying a 1 GW space data center is at least 7 times that of terrestrial centers, this ratio is expected to decrease to 4 times by the late 2020s and reach cost parity in the 2030s [3][4]. - The decline in costs is primarily driven by reductions in launch costs and improvements in satellite design and energy efficiency, leading to a significant decrease in the mass required for orbital deployment [3][4]. Projected Cost Data - In the estimated scenario for 2026, the cost of space deployment is projected to be $114 billion, compared to $16 billion for terrestrial deployment, resulting in a difference factor of 7.2 times. By the "optimized scenario" in 2032, space deployment costs are expected to drop to $18 billion, nearly equal to the terrestrial cost of $16 billion, with a difference factor of 1.2 times [4][5]. Key Factors for Economic Reversal - The critical variable for achieving this economic reversal is the dramatic drop in launch costs, which are projected to fall from $1,600 per kg in 2026 to $67 per kg by 2032 [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of fully reusable rockets and economies of scale in operations, suggesting that launch costs could potentially decrease to as low as $1 million or even below $70 per kg over time [7]. Hardware Optimization - In addition to launch costs, significant advancements in orbital hardware are anticipated. By the 2030s, the cost of a single satellite is expected to drop below $2 million, or just $10,000 per kW, featuring a 150 kW power system and custom chips designed for space AI infrastructure [9]. - However, the model's assumptions are based on the premise that ground capacity costs remain unchanged, and it does not account for the expensive procurement costs of GPU/TPU chips. The report warns that if ground-based energy sources, such as nuclear power, become rapidly available and inexpensive, the assumptions may no longer hold [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is seen as a transformative period for China's AI industry, marking a shift from being followers to establishing an independent "Chinese path" in AI technology and business [1]. Group 1: Company Developments - The AI landscape in China is characterized by both tech giants and innovative unicorns advancing simultaneously [2]. - Alibaba is investing 380 billion in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure, establishing a significant presence in the AI ecosystem [2]. - Baidu has achieved a comprehensive layout with its Wenxin 5.0 model, leading AI search with over 382 million monthly active users [2]. - ByteDance has created a national-level application, Doubao, which has penetrated the lives of millions [2]. - Tencent is integrating AI deeply into its vast social and content ecosystem [2]. - Innovative unicorns like DeepSeek and MiniMax are carving out unique paths, with DeepSeek focusing on efficient models and MiniMax demonstrating the global market potential of Chinese models [2]. - Zhiyu AI has become the first global large model stock after successfully listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2]. Group 2: Product Innovations - AI products are evolving from simple chatbots to capable assistants that can perform tasks effectively [3]. - Doubao showcases the future of system-level agents in human-computer interaction [4]. - The Qianwen App aims to be a super entrance for future AI life services, demonstrating practical model capabilities [4]. - Baidu's integration of Baidu Wenku and Baidu Netdisk has created a one-stop solution for AI content creation and consumption, with nearly 300 million monthly active users [4]. - DingTalk is extending work intelligence into the physical world through hardware and software integration [4]. - Feishu's M4-level intelligent assistant is transforming office software into a decision-making "digital employee" [4]. - Ant Financial's AI health assistant, Antifufu, is enhancing health services, while Youdao's AI pen is redefining educational guidance [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The best AI solutions are those that genuinely address pain points and integrate into daily life [5]. - As AI becomes as ubiquitous as water and electricity across various industries, the awarded companies and products are expected to contribute significantly to reshaping the global economy and social structure [5].

Core Insights - The 26th UBS Greater China Conference (GCC) commenced on January 12, 2026, focusing on the theme "New Frontiers: Recognizing Changes, Seeking Growth" [2] - The conference serves as a premier financial forum for discussing significant viewpoints, trends, and challenges in China's development, attracting over 3,600 participants, including more than 2,300 global institutional investors and executives from 300 Chinese listed and private companies [5] Group 1 - The conference emphasizes the role of the Asia-Pacific and Greater China as key players in global wealth creation, with expectations that they will become the strongest engines for wealth generation in the next five years [6] - UBS has been deeply rooted in the Chinese mainland market for over 35 years and has 60 years of experience in the Hong Kong market, positioning itself at the intersection of domestic and international capital market demands [7] - The conference featured insights from UBS executives on the outlook for the Chinese stock market and investment opportunities, highlighting the increasing attractiveness of Chinese assets amid a global focus on diversified investments [10] Group 2 - The conference aims to provide thought leadership and deep dialogue to help investors make better decisions, whether seizing short-term opportunities or planning for long-term growth [6] - The CEO of UBS, Sergio P. Ermotti, noted the growing interest of international investors in participating more comprehensively in the Chinese market, with a 32% year-on-year increase in attendees from the US, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa [7] - UBS anticipates that the Chinese capital market will play a greater role in supporting technological innovation and growth transformation, with strong innovation momentum and supportive policies expected to sustain the stock market's performance [10]

以下文章来源于资事堂 ，作者资事堂 资事堂 . 华尔街见闻出品 作者崔峻阳 编辑袁畅 在私募行业，一家私募机构的创始人（或创始人团队）往往是整个组织的核心，支撑公司的发展和存续。 也因此，如果长期默契合作的核心团队突然"分家"，往往很突然，很剧烈，引发强烈不确定性和外界关注。 在一年多前的私募行业里，S私募（化名，后同）的"拆伙"是最让人牵动心思的。 当时，这家百亿级的机构以一则人事变动公告，一段"和平分手"的解释，配合相对克制的语言叙事，迅速安抚了此次事件的冲击力，相关主体在公司的强力宣 慰下，也迅速回归平静。 但随着时间的推移，新的说法开始沉渣泛起，悄然流传…… 不可忽视的"提前清盘" S私募作为业内的一线私募机构，在许多场合都享有他们的名气和声誉。 但恰如所有上了规模的量化机构一样，这些机构从组织架构到内部分工，从策略到投资体系都处于"黑匣子"，并没有太多讯息传来。 但它的核心"三人组"在2024年突然拆伙令人诧异，学历背景出众的创始人W悄然退出，但核心的Y和S仍然团队内继续管理，整个过程极为迅速，了无痕迹。 那么，该私募机构同时保留了很多产品又是什么意思？这期间还出现了创始人离场，又有什么关联么？ 但 ...

特朗普此后说，他将在未来几周内宣布下任美联储主席的人选。司法部对鲍威尔的调查不会影响他的时间表。他抵达密歇根州后发表讲话时称"我们有位糟糕的 美联储主席"。 特朗普在底特律经济俱乐部发表讲话时称鲍威尔"非常死板"，并表示，在经济形势良好的情况下，美联储应该降息。他说，如果经济数据好，市场应该上涨， 而不是下跌，希望在市场表现好的时候利率下降。 在司法部对美联储发出大陪审团传票上周末被曝光后，这是特朗普首次在线下公开场合讲话时点名批评鲍威尔。此前，特朗普曾试图与调查保持距离，上周末 对媒体表示对传票"一无所知"。 同在周二，媒体获悉，负责此次调查的哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官Jeanine Pirro在向美联储发出传票之前并未寻求司法部上司的批准，且无意放弃对鲍威尔的调 查。这一刑事调查引发了共和党参议员的强烈反对，威胁到特朗普对下任美联储主席人选的提名进程。 此次调查涉及美联储总部翻新项目及鲍威尔就此向国会作证的内容。三位前美联储主席和四位前美国财政部长本周一发布联合声明，谴责这一调查"在以法治为 最大优势、以法治为经济成功基础的美国没有立足之地"。参议院银行委员会的重要成员Thom Tillis承诺，在此事解决之 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article contrasts the electricity pricing dynamics in the United States and China, highlighting the stark differences in how each country manages electricity supply and demand, leading to divergent pricing trends [3][5][19]. Group 1: United States Electricity Market - In Loudoun County, Virginia, residents express concerns over rising electricity costs due to the influx of data centers, which are consuming significant power resources [2][8]. - The pricing mechanism in the U.S. is characterized by a transparent and immediate reflection of supply shortages, where electricity prices surge when reserve margins fall below safety thresholds [8][10]. - The average electricity price in the U.S. has been on the rise over the past two years, driven by necessary infrastructure upgrades to support increasing demand from AI and other sectors [9][10][11]. - The burden of higher electricity costs falls on end-users, who face immediate financial impacts, leading to public protests and calls for regulatory hearings [19][22]. Group 2: China Electricity Market - In contrast, China's electricity prices are experiencing a downward trend, with a reported 10% year-on-year decrease in purchasing prices since the beginning of 2025 [3][14]. - The Chinese electricity market is undergoing a "passive clearing" process, where supply-side expansions, particularly in coal and renewable energy, are outpacing demand growth, resulting in lower prices [14][16]. - The role of data centers in China is seen as beneficial, as they help absorb excess electricity generated from renewable sources, particularly in regions with surplus capacity [17][20]. - The financial burden of low electricity prices is shifted to the supply side, where power generation companies and equipment manufacturers face squeezed profit margins, leading to a "utility-like" operational model [20][21].