大涨之后，泡泡玛特估值过高了么？ 据追风交易台消息，7月14日瑞银研究显示，受益于Labubu的热度，泡泡玛特公司今年已大涨180%。2024年现金流投资回报率(CFROI)升至24%，预计 2025/2026年将达到40%以上，其盈利能力和销售增长远超全球同业。 尽管财务预测强劲，但当前的市场定价模型却暗示，泡泡玛特到2029年其现金流投资回报率将回落至32%。这表明市场对泡泡玛特能否维持目前的高增长和高 利润率持保留态度。 瑞银认为，泡泡玛特未来股价表现关键在能否维持高增长和利润率。 若能维持近期预测水平，股价有约40%上涨空间；但如增长放缓至同业水平，则面临40% 下跌风险。 不过，报告也提醒，与历史更悠久的同行相比，玩具行业的增长和利润率都具有周期性，当公司达到周期性高峰时，这两项指标通常会出现放缓。 瑞银 基于IBES的普遍盈利预测 ，泡泡玛特的CFROI将在2025/2026年依旧将达到超过40%的惊人水平。IBES是全球最权威的分析师一致盈利预测数据库，汇 总了全球机构对上市公司未来业绩的共识预期。 然而有趣的是，当前股价所隐含的市场预期却相对保守。 市场定价模型显示 ，投资者似乎预计公司的CF ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple's first foldable iPhone is expected to be released in the second half of 2026, with a starting price of $1,800 [1] Group 1: Product and Cost Insights - Apple will use Samsung Display's (SDC) wrinkle-free display design for the foldable iPhone, rather than its own solution, to ensure mass production by 2026 [1][4] - The bill of materials (BOM) for the iPhone Fold is estimated at $759, which is 4% lower than the Samsung Z Fold SE, with pricing likely between $1,800 and $2,000 due to Apple's cost control capabilities [2] - Initial production is expected to be limited to 10-15 million units, reflecting the technical complexity and high price point of foldable devices [3] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The adoption of SDC's wrinkle-free design will reshape the entire supply chain [4] - Fine M-Tec, as SDC's metal plate supplier, is projected to start shipping display metal plates in Q1 2026 at a unit price of $30-35, with an expected shipment volume of 13-15 million units, capturing over 80% of the supply share [5] - Samsung Display is anticipated to be the main supplier of 7-inch foldable OLED panels, with an annual capacity of 15 million units, while LG Display may serve as an alternative supplier [5] - Apple may utilize titanium for the outer shell and liquid metal for the hinge, benefiting suppliers like Lens Technology, Amphenol, and Foxconn [5] Group 3: Market Response - Investor expectations for the foldable iPhone have positively impacted market sentiment, with Fine M-Tec's stock surging by 29.97% to 9,280 KRW on the KOSDAQ market [6] - Merrill Lynch analyst Yang Seung-Soo has given Fine M-Tec a "buy" rating with a target price of 8,200 KRW, noting that only two companies possess the required technical capabilities in the metal plate sector [7] - The launch of the foldable iPhone is expected to have a positive ripple effect on the entire supply chain, including companies like Amphenol, Hirose, TDK, Xinxing Electronics, and Samsung SDI, which are currently trading below historical average valuations [8] Group 4: Market Trends - The global foldable smartphone market is currently showing signs of fatigue, with growth slowing and a projected decline in 2025 due to high prices and concerns over durability and usability [9] - Samsung maintains a leading position in this segment with the most comprehensive foldable product line, while brands like OPPO, OnePlus, Google, Motorola, Honor, and Vivo are introducing unique foldable designs [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the importance of urban development in China, highlighting the need for a modernized urban framework that prioritizes innovation, livability, sustainability, resilience, and smart governance [1][2]. Summary by Sections Overall Requirements for Urban Work - The conference outlined that urban work should be guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics, focusing on high-quality urban development and adapting to the changing urbanization phase from rapid growth to stable development [2][3]. Key Tasks for Urban Development 1. **Optimizing Modern Urban Systems** - Focus on enhancing the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities, promoting urban clusters and coordinated development between large, medium, and small cities [3]. 2. **Building Innovative Cities** - Foster an innovative ecosystem and enhance urban dynamism through reform and high-quality urban renewal [4]. 3. **Creating Livable Cities** - Integrate planning for population, industry, and transportation, and improve public services while ensuring basic living standards [4]. 4. **Developing Green and Low-Carbon Cities** - Strengthen ecological governance and implement effective measures for air quality, water source protection, and pollution reduction [4]. 5. **Establishing Resilient Cities** - Enhance infrastructure safety, upgrade old pipelines, and improve disaster prevention and public safety measures [4]. 6. **Promoting Civilized Cities** - Protect historical and cultural heritage while enhancing the cultural soft power of cities [4]. 7. **Implementing Smart City Initiatives** - Innovate urban governance methods and improve responsiveness to citizens' needs through effective communication channels [5]. Leadership and Implementation - The conference stressed the necessity of strong party leadership in urban work, advocating for improved governance structures, policy coordination, and a focus on practical results to combat formalism and bureaucratism [5][6].

H20，是为遵守美国出口限制而推出，专为中国市场设计的AI加速器。H20基于英伟达Hopper架 构，拥有CoWoS先进封装技术。H20更适用于垂类模型训练、推理，无法满足万亿级大模型训练需 求，整体性能略高于910B。 来源：央视新闻 美国英伟达公司创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋今天在接受总台央视记者采访时宣布两个重要进展： 英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋表示：" 美国政府已经批准了我们的出口许可，我们可以开始发货 了，所以我们将开始向中国市场销售H20。 我非常期待能很快发货H20，对此我感到非常高兴，这 真是个非常、非常好的消息。第二个消息是，我们还将发布一款名为RTX Pro的新显卡。这款显卡非 常重要，因为它是专为计算机图形、数字孪生和人工智能设计的。" 新闻背景 美国政府今年4月决定禁止英伟达向中国市场销售其H20芯片。 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 觉得好看，请点"在看" 美国已批准H20芯片销往中国 英伟达将推出RTXpro GPU ⭐星标华尔街见闻，好内容不错过 ⭐ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [1] - The per capita disposable income for residents nationwide was 21,840 yuan, showing a nominal year-on-year increase of 5.3%, and a real increase of 5.4% after adjusting for price factors [2] - Urban residents had a per capita disposable income of 28,844 yuan, with a nominal growth of 4.7% and a real growth of 4.7%, while rural residents had a per capita disposable income of 11,936 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.9% and a real growth of 6.2% [2] Group 2 - The median per capita disposable income for residents was 18,186 yuan, indicating a nominal year-on-year increase of 4.8% [3] - The sources of income for residents showed nominal growths of 5.7% for wage income, 5.3% for operating net income, 2.5% for property net income, and 5.6% for transfer net income [2]

Core Viewpoint - A policy-driven global stock market melt-up is underway, and investors should adopt an "All In" strategy until long-term bond yields breach critical levels, triggering a market collapse [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market sentiment reflects a shift from fiscal detox to unrestrained spending, creating a "beautiful bubble" to cover massive bills, with risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies responding positively [2][9]. - The extreme indifference to policy risks is a key catalyst for the current rally, as evidenced by the low levels of volatility in both bond and stock markets [2][12]. - Hartnett suggests maintaining full exposure to risk assets until long-term Treasury yields reach "jailbreak" levels: 5.1% for the US 30-year Treasury, 5.6% for the UK, and 3.2% for Japan [2][3]. Group 2: Asset Performance - Hartnett emphasizes that bonds are the least favored asset class, with the trading logic of "Anything but Bonds" gaining traction globally [4]. - Over the past decade, gold has risen by 114%, outperforming other asset classes, while US Treasuries have declined by 1% [5]. - The ratio of European stocks to bonds has surpassed 2000 highs, indicating the end of a long-term deflationary era in Europe and Japan [5]. Group 3: Debt and Economic Outlook - The surge in US debt issuance is projected to push total debt beyond $50 trillion by 2032, with demand declining until interest rates rise sufficiently to attract investors [8]. - Hartnett warns that the inability to cut spending or significantly raise tariffs will lead to a "beautiful bubble" financed by massive deficits [9][11]. - A long-term bearish trend for the US dollar is anticipated, with recommendations to increase allocations to commodities, cryptocurrencies, and emerging markets in the latter half of the 2020s [11]. Group 4: Market Signals and Investor Sentiment - Despite a bullish stance, Hartnett notes increasing signs of bubbles, with a general optimism among investors leading to a lack of concern about economic conditions or valuations [12][13]. - The upcoming Fund Manager Survey (FMS) could signal a typical profit-taking or summer pullback if it shows extreme optimism [12]. - Hartnett highlights a divergence in market sentiment, with macro strategists fearing a bond market sell-off while equity and credit market participants remain optimistic due to anticipated economic prosperity ahead of midterm elections [13][14]. Group 5: Policy Environment - The global policy environment remains accommodative, with central banks continuing to lower interest rates, supporting risk appetite [14]. - Despite a reduction in fiscal stimulus in the US compared to 2024, upcoming tax cuts in 2026 and increasing fiscal stimulus from Europe and NATO are expected to provide effective counterbalances [14]. - The consensus is that any negative macro impacts from US tariff increases will be quickly mitigated, reinforcing investor risk appetite and driving the ongoing global stock market rally [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant resurgence of the Hong Kong IPO market, with a record fundraising amount in the first half of 2025, reaching 1,067 million HKD, nearly eight times that of the same period last year, reclaiming the top position globally [4][11][12] - The article notes that this is the first time in history that six companies have listed simultaneously on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating a vibrant IPO environment [2][5] - The influx of A-share companies to the Hong Kong market has been a major contributor, with four A-share companies accounting for nearly 70% of the total IPO fundraising in the first half of 2025 [6][13][14] Group 2 - The article discusses the changing landscape of IPO underwriting, with foreign investment banks regaining prominence, occupying six of the top ten spots in underwriting amounts for Hong Kong IPOs in the first half of 2025 [7][8][35] - In contrast, the A-share market has seen stable IPO fundraising, maintaining around 37 billion CNY, while the Hong Kong market has experienced a significant increase [9][45] - The article emphasizes the competitive nature of the IPO market, with underwriting fees for major projects being notably low, reflecting the intense competition among investment banks [40][41][42] Group 3 - The article mentions that the Hong Kong market's strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising 20% in the first half of 2025, has contributed to the active IPO environment [22][23] - It also highlights the support from government policies aimed at facilitating the listing process for companies, which has accelerated the speed of IPO approvals [14][16][18] - The article points out that many A-share companies are planning to list in Hong Kong, driven by the favorable market conditions and the need for global expansion [21][20]

在周一下午举办的国新办新闻发布会上，中国人民银行副行长邹澜介绍2025年上半年货币信贷政策执行及金融统计数据情况，并答记者问。 邹澜在发布会上表示，如果把地方专项债置换地方融资平台贷款进行还原，按可比口径贷款同比增速还会更高一些。下阶段， 人民银行将继续实施好适度宽松 的货币政策，密切关注评估前期已实施政策的传导情况和实际效果 。 邹澜指出， 当前美元走势仍然有不确定性，但中国国内基本面持续向好，人民币汇率在双向波动中保持基本稳定具有坚实基础 。中国不寻求通过汇率贬值获 取国际竞争优势，人民银行的汇率政策立场是清晰和一贯的，将继续坚持市场在汇率形成的决定性作用，保持汇率弹性，同时强化预期引导， 防范汇率超调风 险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定。 若排除地方政府债券置换的影响，贷款同比增速还要更高一些 邹澜表示，从上半年金融数据看，货币政策支持实体经济效果比较明显。6月末，社会融资规模存量同比增8.9%，M2同比增8.3%，人民币贷款同比增7.1%， 如果把地方专项债置换地方融资平台贷款进行还原，按可比口径贷款同比增速还会更高一些。 5月7日宣布的一揽子货币政策已在一个月内全部落地实施 邹澜在国新办新 ...

德银策略师警告， "美国总统特朗普迫使美联储主席鲍威尔离职"是一个重大且被市场低估的风险，可能引发美元和美国国债的大幅抛售。 本周，特朗普表示，如果美国政府官员指控鲍威尔在美联储总部装修问题上误导国会议员的说法属实，鲍威尔应该"立即辞职"。 然而，鲍威尔被迫离职的风险被市场严重低估。德银全球外汇策略主管George Saravelos在报告中指出， 市场对鲍威尔被免职的概率定价"非常低" ，博彩平 台Polymarket给出的概率不到20%，美元近期也保持相对稳定。 Saravelos预测， 若特朗普迫使鲍威尔离职，随后24小时内美元贸易加权指数可能下跌至少3%-4%，固定收益市场将面临30-40个基点的抛售。 美元和债券将 承担持续性风险溢价。 这类事件或将构成对美联储独立性的一大冲击。Saravelos表示： "偷师"尼克松 特朗普指责鲍威尔"过度装修" 投资者可能将此类事件 解读为对美联储独立性的直接冲击，使美联储面临极端的制度性压力。 鲍威尔（美联储）坐镇全球美元货币体系的顶峰，显而易见的是，后果将波及美国境外。 其他机构观点也趋于一致。荷兰国际集团策略师在另一份报告中表示，尽管鲍威尔提前离职"不太可 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio discusses the concept of national bankruptcy in his new book, emphasizing that unlike individuals and corporations, nations can print money and tax, leading to currency devaluation rather than default as a means of "bankruptcy" [1][3][14]. Group 1: National Debt Dynamics - Dalio highlights that the U.S. national debt is approximately $36-38 trillion, with an annual deficit of about $2 trillion (spending $7 trillion, revenue $5 trillion) [3][48][58]. - He notes that 60% of government spending is allocated to social welfare programs, which consume 85% of revenue, while interest payments account for 20% of revenue [3][60]. - The U.S. faces a significant debt issuance requirement of $12 trillion annually, which includes $1 trillion in interest, $9 trillion in principal repayment, and $2 trillion in new deficit [3][18]. Group 2: Proposed Solutions - Dalio proposes a solution to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP through a combination of 4% spending cuts, 4% increase in tax revenue, and a 1% reduction in interest rates, although he believes the likelihood of this plan being implemented is only 5% due to the polarized political environment [2][4][28][38]. - He emphasizes that achieving a balanced budget requires addressing spending, tax revenue, and interest rates [30][32]. Group 3: Economic Environment and Risks - Dalio warns that if the U.S. adopts a strategy similar to Japan's, involving money printing and currency devaluation, it could lead to severe social, political, and economic challenges, especially during a recession [2][67][78]. - He draws parallels between the current economic situation and the 1970s, highlighting concerns about stagflation and the potential for a similar economic environment [6][111]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - For investors concerned about inflation and currency devaluation, Dalio recommends allocating 10-15% of their portfolio to gold as a diversification tool, alongside investing in inflation-indexed bonds for safety [8][79][90]. - He advises against real estate investments due to their sensitivity to interest rates and tax implications, suggesting that gold serves as a better hedge against economic instability [124][127].