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Qwen最新闭源模型曝光!实测夸克“对话助手”
华尔街见闻· 2025-10-24 10:50
Core Insights - Quark aims to transform from a simple chatbot to a comprehensive task-completing assistant, focusing on professional and authoritative responses rather than casual conversation [1][3][11] - The introduction of the Qwen closed model enhances Quark's capabilities in reasoning and search integration, setting it apart from competitors [12][14] Group 1: User Experience and Functionality - The new "Dialogue Assistant" mode in Quark allows users to input questions and receive task-oriented responses, such as retrieving study materials directly [1][6] - Quark's approach to answering questions is more data-driven and authoritative, contrasting with competitors like Doubao, which focuses on emotional engagement [3][4] - Users can complete complex tasks within a single interface, such as extracting text from documents and saving it to cloud storage, reducing friction in the process [9][11] Group 2: Model Capabilities and Knowledge Base - Quark's Qwen model demonstrates superior reasoning abilities, as shown in a test question where it provided a detailed breakdown of the answer, unlike other models that gave a simpler response [13] - The model is supported by specialized knowledge bases in fields like healthcare, education, law, and finance, enhancing its ability to provide credible and precise information [12][13] - Quark's focus on building "AI credibility" through authoritative knowledge sources differentiates it from general chat assistants, creating a competitive edge [12][13]
金银大跌只是“技术性调整”?摩根大通商品团队上调预测:明年底金价5055美元,银价56美元
华尔街见闻· 2025-10-24 10:50
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's global commodity research team maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold, predicting an average price of $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026, despite recent price corrections [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent correction in gold prices is viewed as healthy and necessary after a significant increase of over 30% since mid-August [3]. - In the eight weeks leading up to October, global gold ETFs added 268 tons, with a nominal inflow of $33 billion, indicating strong demand from Western investors [3][5]. - The price of gold has retreated to a key support level between $3,944 and $4,000, with expectations of renewed buying interest from central banks and consumers as the market stabilizes [3][5]. Group 2: Future Demand Projections - The model predicts that by 2026, total investor demand, including ETFs, futures, and central bank purchases, will average 566 tons per quarter [5]. - Central banks are expected to purchase an average of 760 tons of gold annually over the next two years, remaining significantly above pre-2022 levels [6]. - Gold ETFs are projected to attract approximately 360 tons of inflows by the end of 2026, driven by concerns over inflation and U.S. debt sustainability [6]. Group 3: Silver Market Outlook - The report also expresses optimism for silver, forecasting a price of $56 per ounce by the end of 2026, as the gold-silver ratio is expected to return to the range of 85-90 [7]. Group 4: Short-term Risks - The quantitative and derivatives strategy team at Morgan Stanley warns of short-term risks, citing a record imbalance in gold ETF options and drawing parallels to the market conditions before a significant correction in 2006 [2][8]. - The current market sentiment is described as overheated, with momentum indicators and implied volatility at extreme levels [9]. Group 5: Potential Risks to Outlook - The primary risk to the bullish outlook is a sharp slowdown in central bank purchases, which have been crucial for supporting gold prices [13]. - Jewelry demand has been negatively impacted by rising gold prices, with a 14% decline in weight terms despite a 21% increase in value terms in Q2 [14]. - High gold prices may lead to increased recycling of old jewelry, potentially reducing net jewelry demand significantly [14][15].
美国银行与摩根大通预计:美联储本月就停止缩表
华尔街见闻· 2025-10-24 10:50
最后5小时! 2026见闻历早鸟价 , 并送超值大礼包,手慢无 上述两家华尔街大行均将美联储结束"量化紧缩"(QT)的时间预测提前,理由是近期美元融资市场借贷成本上升。此前他们预计,美联储逐步抛售美国国债和 抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)的这一自2022年6月开始的缩表操作,将于今年12月或明年年初结束。 目前,美联储的资产负债表已经从峰值下降了2.38万亿美元,截至今年9月底为6.59万亿美元。 美联储官员们预计将在下周于华盛顿召开的FOMC会议上讨论资产负债表的走向。市场普遍认为,美联储的政策利率有望下调至3.75%–4%,但华尔街对决策 者何时正式结束量化紧缩仍存在分歧。 包括道明证券(TD Securities)和 Wrightson ICAP在内的一些机构已将预期提前至10月,而巴克莱银行和高盛集团则预计会在稍晚时间结束。 本月早些时候,美联储主席鲍威尔在讲话中表示,当银行体系准备金略高于决策者认为"充裕"的水平时,即足以防止市场动荡的最低要求,美联储的资产负债 表缩减将会停止。鲍威尔同时发出迄今最强烈信号,称美联储可能在未来几个月内接近这一点。 摩根大通和美国银行的策略师们最新预计,美联储将于本月停止 ...
特朗普赦免赵长鹏
华尔街见闻· 2025-10-24 03:23
最后12小时! 2026见闻历早鸟价 , 特朗普本人也对记者称,赵长鹏是被很多人推荐获得赦免的,并认为他并无罪过。 很多人建议赦免他,很多人说他什么罪都没有……他只是受到了拜登政府的迫害,这不是犯罪。 在赦免消息传出后,作为币安平台主要交易代币的BNB价格一度上涨高达8%。这一涨势也蔓延至整个加密市场,市场风向标比特币上涨3%,以太坊上涨 3.7%,显示出投资者对这一消息的积极反应。 这一戏剧性转变,让市场目光迅速聚焦于币安重返美国市场的可能性。 并送超值大礼包,手慢无 一纸总统赦免令,将全球最大加密货币交易所币安及其创始人赵长鹏重新推回了美国市场的聚光灯下。 此举不仅推动了币安原生代币BNB价格飙升,更引发了关于币安可能重返美国市场的激烈讨论,或将重塑美国数字资产市场的竞争格局。 当地时间周四,白宫发言人莱维特表示: 美国 总统特朗普依据宪法赋予的权力,对赵先生颁布了赦免令。 他是拜登政府在所谓加密货币战争中起诉的对象之一……拜登政府对加密货币的战争已经结 束。 赦免令最直接的影响体现在市场层面。加密对冲基金AnB Investments的管理合伙人Jaime Baeza表示,这一消息带来了"释压性反弹"。 ...
黄金9周连涨后历史复盘:未来一年通常回调20%-40%,仅1970年例外
华尔街见闻· 2025-10-23 08:18
Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, dropping 6.3% and marking the largest single-day drop in 12 years, is attributed to various factors including rumors surrounding the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, easing trade relations, and the reopening of the U.S. government. Despite this short-term volatility, the long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The current gold price surge is fundamentally different from earlier trends, as central banks have not participated in the recent price increases since September. The rise has been primarily driven by investment and speculative traders, indicating a lack of stability typically provided by central bank purchases [3][6]. - The significant increase in ETF sizes during this gold price rise contrasts sharply with earlier trading conditions, as ETF funds are characterized by rapid inflows and outflows, leading to heightened volatility [4][6]. Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggested that the recent gold price surge was unsustainable, as it reached the upper limit of three standard deviations, a point historically associated with subsequent price corrections [7][9]. - The implied volatility of gold ETFs has surged, which historically signals potential turning points and exhaustion of trends, providing a clear warning of an impending sharp correction [9]. Historical Context - Historical analysis shows that after a nine-week consecutive rise in gold prices, the typical adjustment range has been between 20% to 40%. The maximum declines observed in past instances ranged from 17% to 42%, with the most significant drops occurring between 23 to 148 trading days after the peak [12][14]. - Despite the short-term adjustment pressures, the long-term bullish narrative for gold remains strong, supported by the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and structural supply-demand imbalances [12][14].
金价暴跌之际,高盛“坚定看涨”
华尔街见闻· 2025-10-23 08:18
Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analysts reaffirmed their target price of $4,900 per ounce for gold by the end of 2026, highlighting potential "upside risk" due to ongoing structural buying from central banks and high-net-worth individuals [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current sell-off in the gold market is attributed to speculative position liquidations and spillover effects from the silver market, rather than a deterioration in fundamentals [1]. - Structural demand, characterized by "sticky" buying, remains strong from September to October, contrasting with the quick in-and-out nature of speculative funds [3]. Group 2: Sources of Structural Demand - Central banks are expected to show seasonal buying patterns, with purchases likely to rebound in September and October after a quiet summer [4]. - Gold ETFs are anticipated to see renewed inflows driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and diversification needs, alongside increased physical gold purchases from ultra-high-net-worth individuals [5]. Group 3: Price Impact and Investor Interest - Goldman Sachs' model indicates that a firm buying of 100 tons can lead to a price increase of 1.5%-2%, with a notable increase of 154 tons in August validating this model [6]. - The interest from institutional investors is rising, with many planning to increase gold allocations as part of their strategic portfolios, which presents significant "upside risk" to the $4,900 target price [8][10].
又一只蟑螂!次级借贷市场再现动荡,PrimaLend申请破产
华尔街见闻· 2025-10-23 08:18
Core Viewpoint - PrimaLend Capital Partners has filed for bankruptcy after failing to make timely interest payments, signaling stress in the low-income consumer finance sector in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Company Overview - PrimaLend Capital Partners, based in Plano, Texas, focuses on providing financing to subprime borrowers and auto dealers, primarily those engaged in "buy here, pay here" sales [1] - The company has disclosed assets and liabilities of less than $500 million in its bankruptcy filing [1] - PrimaLend aims to sell its business while continuing to provide loans and services to its borrowers during the bankruptcy process [1][2] Group 2: Industry Context - The bankruptcy of PrimaLend follows the recent bankruptcy of another "buy here, pay here" dealer, Tricolor Holdings, amidst rising auto loan default rates among low-income consumers [3] - The failures of PrimaLend and Tricolor, along with the collapse of First Brands Group and issues faced by regional banks, have raised concerns about potential hidden risks in the lending sector after years of loose credit [3][4] - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has warned of more potential issues in the credit sector, suggesting that the current situation may indicate broader financial problems ahead [4] Group 3: Expert Insights - Donald Clarke, president of Asset Based Lending Consultants, emphasizes the need for lenders to be vigilant and conduct thorough due diligence to avoid significant defaults [5] - There is a call for lenders to maintain a rational approach to risk and enhance their due diligence processes to avoid vulnerabilities in the current lending environment [6]
普通人的摄影自由来了
华尔街见闻· 2025-10-23 08:18
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of mobile photography, highlighting OPPO's latest flagship, the Find X9 Pro, which aims to provide high-quality images comparable to professional cameras through advanced technology and innovation [1][3]. Group 1: Evolution of Mobile Photography - The introduction of the Sharp J-SH04 in 2000 marked the beginning of mobile photography, evolving from a simple 110,000-pixel camera to today's 200 million-pixel capabilities [1]. - Mobile phones have transformed from basic photography tools to devices capable of producing professional-quality images, even in filmmaking [1][4]. - OPPO has been a key player in this evolution, continuously innovating to enhance mobile photography experiences [4]. Group 2: The Challenge of High Pixel Count - The mobile industry has engaged in a "high pixel war," where camera specifications have increased dramatically, yet the actual image quality often does not meet expectations [6]. - OPPO aims to address this issue with the Find X9 Pro by ensuring that high pixel counts translate into usable and high-quality images through a comprehensive solution involving optics, craftsmanship, and algorithms [6][11]. Group 3: Technical Innovations in Find X9 Pro - The Find X9 Pro features a 200 million-pixel periscope telephoto lens certified by Hasselblad, emphasizing the importance of light intake to achieve high-quality images [8]. - OPPO's engineers have focused on maximizing light intake, achieving a 110% increase compared to the previous generation and leading the industry by over 30% [8]. - Advanced optical technologies, such as a high-efficiency focusing system and an active optical calibration system, ensure consistent image quality across different focal lengths [9][10]. Group 4: Algorithmic Enhancements - OPPO has developed a "three-frame 200 million pixel fusion" technology that captures three images simultaneously to enhance noise reduction and dynamic range [11]. - The LUMO super pixel engine, utilizing NPU and GPU collaboration, allows for efficient processing of large data volumes, resulting in high-quality direct output images [11]. Group 5: Historical Context and Future Vision - OPPO's journey in mobile imaging began with the launch of the A103 in 2008, which laid the foundation for its focus on portrait photography [13]. - Subsequent innovations, such as the stacked sensor in 2012 and pixel binning technology in 2016, have significantly advanced mobile photography capabilities [14][16]. - OPPO's collaboration with Hasselblad aims to merge technical innovation with aesthetic principles, enhancing the overall photographic experience [17]. Group 6: Impact on Users and Society - The advancements in mobile photography technology have empowered users, including professional photographers, to capture artistic expressions effortlessly [21]. - OPPO's commitment to enhancing mobile imaging has democratized photography, allowing everyone to experience the art of capturing moments [21].
电话会让市场失望,马斯克称“特斯拉处于关键时刻”
华尔街见闻· 2025-10-23 08:18
Core Viewpoint - Tesla is shifting its narrative from being solely an electric vehicle manufacturer to becoming a leader in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics, emphasizing its commitment to "real-world AI" and the potential of its Robotaxi and Optimus projects [1][4]. Strategic Shift - CEO Elon Musk stated that Tesla is at a "critical inflection point" in bringing AI into the real world, with a focus on "real-world AI" as the core of its future strategy, moving beyond just electric vehicles [3][4]. - The company aims to create a world without poverty through full self-driving and the Optimus robot, which Musk believes will have a significant impact [5][18]. Optimus and Robotaxi Developments - The production timeline for the Optimus robot has been pushed back to late 2026, with the latest version, Optimus V3, expected to debut in early 2026 [2][6]. - The Cybercab, designed for full autonomy without a steering wheel or pedals, is set to begin production in Q2 2026, representing a major expansion in Tesla's production capabilities [3][6]. - Musk has expressed concerns about maintaining control over the company as it develops its "robot army," linking this to upcoming shareholder votes on his compensation and influence [9][10]. Autonomous Driving and Robotaxi Expansion - Tesla plans to remove safety drivers from Robotaxis in Austin by the end of 2025 and expand the service to 8-10 metropolitan areas, a significant reduction from previous goals of covering 50% of the U.S. population [2][7][8]. - The latest version of the Full Self-Driving (FSD) software has been released to all U.S. owners, with future updates expected to enhance the vehicle's reasoning capabilities [3][7]. Financial Performance - Tesla reported record revenue, deliveries, and free cash flow of approximately $4 billion in Q3, with automotive revenue increasing by 29% quarter-over-quarter [12][19]. - The automotive gross margin slightly increased from 15% to 15.4%, attributed to lower material costs and economies of scale, despite facing over $400 million in tariff impacts [12][21]. - The energy storage business continues to show strong demand, with the upcoming Megapack 4 expected to simplify deployment processes [11][25]. AI and Chip Development - Tesla is investing heavily in AI chip development, with the AI5 chip expected to be 40 times more powerful than its predecessor, AI4, and designed for efficiency and cost-effectiveness [11][32]. - The company aims to achieve an "AI chip surplus" to support its automotive and robotics ambitions, with production planned in collaboration with Samsung and TSMC [11][31]. Shareholder Engagement - Tesla executives urged shareholders to support Musk's compensation plan and board member re-elections in the upcoming vote to ensure the company's stability and future growth [3][12].
谷歌称量子芯片“Willow”现重大突破
华尔街见闻· 2025-10-23 03:10
Core Insights - Google has made a significant breakthrough in quantum computing with its Willow chip, demonstrating an algorithm that outperforms traditional supercomputers [1][2] - This advancement paves the way for practical applications of quantum technology within the next five years [2] - The algorithm, named "Quantum Echoes," is verifiable and can be run on another quantum computer, achieving speeds 13,000 times faster than the world's strongest supercomputer [2][4] Group 1: Breakthrough Details - The Willow chip solved a problem in five minutes that would take a supercomputer 10 septillion years to complete [5] - Quantum computers utilize extremely small circuits for calculations, allowing for parallel processing rather than sequential execution, significantly enhancing speed [5] - The ability to verify results on another quantum computer addresses a major challenge in the field, as noted by computer scientist Scott Aaronson [5][4] Group 2: Future Applications - The results indicate broad potential uses for quantum computing in fields such as medicine and materials science [3] - One application of the algorithm involves studying molecular structures by calculating distances between atoms, which could benefit drug development and battery design [7][8] - However, achieving these applications will require quantum computers to be scaled up by a factor of 10,000 compared to current machines [8] Group 3: Industry Context - Google is not alone in this race; Microsoft, IBM, and various startups are also actively pursuing advancements in quantum computing [4] - The research team includes notable figures such as Michel H. Devoret, a potential Nobel Prize winner in Physics for 2025, indicating the high caliber of expertise involved [8]