（资料图，Reuters） 竹内弘文：放飞观测气球，观察谈判对手和市场的反应，寻找妥协点，这是特朗普式的谈判术。不过， 由于特朗普很少将强硬政策贯彻到底，英国《金融时报》评论员称之为"TACO（特朗普总是临阵退 缩）"。这次对中国又是这样…… "无需担心中国。一切都会好起来的"，"备受尊敬的习近平主席现在只是状况不太好而已。他不希望自 己的国家经济不景气，我也不希望"，特朗普 12 日在自己的社交媒体上发帖。 竹内弘文： 10月13日的美国股市快速反弹，道琼斯工业平均指数比上周末上涨587点（1.3%），以4万 6067点收盘。10月10日美国总统特朗普暗示对中国大幅提高关税的可能性，导致股价暴跌，但随后转而 表示乐观，吸引了空头回补。 13日是美国的假期，美国债券和外汇市场休市。美国股市与往常一样进行交易，但参与者也有限。虽然 并非道琼斯指数的成分股，但半导体大型企业博通一度上涨11%。与美国OpenAI一起宣布了人工智能 （AI）半导体的联合开发，引发了关注。 而在10日的长篇贴文中，反对中国限制稀土类出口，表示不满称"中国变得极度敌对"，表示"正在讨论 大幅提高关税"，刚刚摆出不惜升级中美贸易战的姿态。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the potential for political instability in Japan as the Komeito party decides not to form a minority coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), leading to a possible shift towards an opposition-led government [2][4] - The upcoming temporary Diet session in late October may see the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) pushing for a unified opposition candidate, Yuichiro Tamaki, which could result in a leadership change away from the LDP [4][5] - The dissolution of the LDP-Komeito coalition raises concerns about governance challenges, as a minority government may struggle to pass budgets and laws without opposition support, potentially leading to a political deadlock [5][7] Group 2 - Komeito's decision to assert its policy demands after leaving the coalition indicates a shift towards a more independent political stance, which may complicate future governance [7] - The rise in the yield of 10-year government bonds to 1.7%, the highest in 17 years, reflects market concerns about fiscal deterioration amid political uncertainty [7] - There are internal discussions within the LDP about fielding its own candidates in constituencies previously allocated to Komeito, indicating a potential shift in electoral strategy as Japan enters a multi-party system [8]

Group 1 - China's overall export value has increased for seven consecutive months, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% in September, reaching 328.5 billion USD [2][4] - The growth rate of exports has expanded compared to August's 4.4%, while imports grew by 7.4%, totaling 238.1 billion USD, marking four months of consecutive growth [4] - The trade surplus, calculated as exports minus imports, stands at 90.4 billion USD, with the surplus expanding year-on-year due to faster export growth compared to imports [4] Group 2 - By export categories, the export of electric vehicles (EVs) grew by 11%, and rare earth exports also exceeded the same month last year, while exports of smartphones, toys, and clothing declined [5] - Regionally, exports to the United States decreased by 27%, marking six consecutive months of negative growth, while exports to ASEAN increased by 16% and to the EU by 14%, with exports to Japan also surpassing the previous year [5]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese electronic component manufacturers are restructuring their production bases in response to geopolitical risks and the ongoing US-China trade tensions, with a focus on diversifying their supply chains outside of China [2][4][6]. Group 1: Company Actions - Tamura Corporation plans to reduce its production bases in China by approximately 30% by March 2028, shifting production to regions with lower geopolitical risks such as Europe and Mexico [2][4]. - TDK has initiated mass production of lithium-ion batteries in India, marking its first production outside of China [2][5]. - Murata Manufacturing is set to establish its first production base in India by the fiscal year 2026, focusing on multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC) [5][6]. Group 2: Market Trends - Japanese electronic component manufacturers are increasingly moving production to Southeast Asia and India to mitigate the impact of high tariffs on components produced in China [6][8]. - The global supply volume of Japanese electronic components is expected to increase, with a projected supply amount of 45.323 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2024, marking a 3% increase from the previous year [8]. - Despite the shift, the supply to China remains the highest, with an output value of 1.5802 trillion yen, indicating that China is still a significant market for Japanese manufacturers [8]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Companies are responding to the normalization of risks associated with US-China relations by establishing independent supply chains for different regions [6][8]. - MEIKO has built a new factory in Vietnam with an investment of approximately 50 billion yen, aiming to produce printed circuit boards for iPhones, reducing its production ratio in China from 70% in 2018 to less than 5% by 2024 [7][8].

Core Insights - The article discusses the cultural and culinary significance of Nagasaki Champon, highlighting its origins and evolution from Chinese cuisine to a beloved Japanese dish [2] Group 1: Historical Context - Nagasaki Champon was influenced by Chinese cuisine, particularly from the Chinese immigrant community in Nagasaki, which contributed to its unique flavor profile [2] - The dish symbolizes a form of "repayment" or gratitude from Japan to China, reflecting historical ties and cultural exchanges [2] Group 2: Culinary Characteristics - The dish is characterized by its rich broth, a mix of various ingredients including pork, seafood, and vegetables, making it a hearty meal [2] - The preparation method involves stir-frying ingredients before adding them to the broth, which enhances the flavors and textures [2] Group 3: Economic Impact - The popularity of Nagasaki Champon has led to its commercialization, with numerous restaurants and instant noodle versions available, contributing to local tourism and economy [2] - The dish has become a symbol of Nagasaki, attracting food enthusiasts and tourists, thereby boosting the local food industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The political landscape in Japan has become chaotic following the Komeito party's decision to exit the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), leading to potential changes in leadership and the possibility of a new prime minister being elected from the opposition parties [2][4]. Group 1: Political Dynamics - The Komeito party announced on October 10 that it would nominate its own leader, Saito Tetsuo, for the prime ministerial election and is not expected to vote for LDP's candidate or any opposition candidates [4]. - If the opposition parties unite to nominate a candidate, they could potentially surpass the votes for LDP's candidate, Saito, leading to a change in government [2][4]. Group 2: Election Scenarios - **Scenario 1**: LDP could govern alone, resulting in "Prime Minister Saito". The LDP currently holds 196 seats in the House of Representatives, and with Komeito's 24 seats, they could reach a total of 220 votes, which is still below the combined opposition total of 210 seats [5][6][8]. - **Scenario 2**: LDP could form a coalition with some opposition parties, still resulting in "Prime Minister Saito". If the opposition fails to unite, some votes may flow to Saito, allowing him to win with the highest number of votes even without a majority [9][10]. - **Scenario 3**: A coalition of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), Japan Innovation Party, and National Democratic Party could lead to "Prime Minister Tamaki". This scenario hinges on the ability of these parties to unite and support Tamaki as a single candidate [11][12]. Group 3: Challenges for Opposition - The opposition parties face challenges in uniting, as the CDP's leader, Noda, has expressed a willingness to consider Tamaki as a candidate, but there are significant policy disagreements that could hinder cooperation [11][12]. - The internal dynamics within the CDP, particularly the presence of factions that may not support Tamaki, could also impact the outcome of the election [12]. Group 4: Upcoming Developments - The temporary Diet session to elect the new prime minister is scheduled for the week of the 20th, with various parties testing each other's positions and engaging in negotiations [12].

Core Viewpoint - Mitsui Mining & Smelting is set to mass-produce a negative thermal expansion material that can achieve a shrinkage rate approximately seven times greater than existing low thermal expansion materials, addressing the growing demand for semiconductors driven by AI advancements [2][6]. Group 1: Product Development - The negative thermal expansion material is designed to suppress thermal expansion in semiconductor packaging, which has been a challenge with traditional materials like spherical silica [2][5]. - The company has completed the technical development of mixing this compound into packaging materials to mitigate resin thermal expansion and is awaiting certification from packaging manufacturers [5]. Group 2: Market Context - The semiconductor industry requires not only the miniaturization of individual chip circuits but also the integration of multiple chips onto substrates, which increases the risk of cracking and deformation due to thermal effects [4]. - The introduction of this new material aims to ensure stable supply and performance of advanced semiconductors, particularly in high-density integration scenarios [4].

Group 1 - The core market focus for Zebra is China, where the company aims to capture market share from local manufacturers, emphasizing the large potential even with a small percentage of market capture [2][6][7] - Zebra's overseas sales account for 60% of total sales, with significant growth in countries like China, the United States, Indonesia, and South Korea, driven by the quality and functionality of their products [5] - The company has launched a product line called "SARASA STUDY" aimed at students in China, which features a gauge to show remaining ink, catering to the high study enthusiasm among Chinese students [6][8] Group 2 - Zebra plans to expand its sales strategy beyond major cities like Shanghai to other large cities with similar demographics, targeting both male and female consumers and addressing various needs such as exam preparation and daily use [8]

Group 1 - NIO entered the German market earlier than XPeng, but its presence in Germany and other European markets remains minimal [5] - XPeng announced its first localized production project in Europe, set to launch in Q3 2025 at the Magna factory in Graz, Austria, with the first models of XPeng G6 and G9 successfully rolling off the production line [6] - XPeng is increasing its integration into Europe, having announced the establishment of a new R&D center in Munich during the recent Munich Auto Show [6]

Core Insights - Huawei's smartwatch shipments reached 7.2 million units from April to June, marking a 53% increase and capturing a 21% global market share, surpassing Apple for the first time [1][4] - Apple's market share declined to 17%, with shipments falling to 5.8 million units, a 3% decrease, continuing a seven-year trend of declining sales [4][7] - The average price of Huawei smartwatches is approximately $227, about half the price of the Apple Watch, which is $413, making Huawei's products more appealing in a cost-conscious market [4][6] Market Dynamics - The global smartwatch market saw an 8% year-on-year increase in shipments, totaling 34.4 million units [4] - Xiaomi and Samsung hold the third and fourth positions in market share with 9% and 6%, respectively [4] - Huawei's growth is supported by government subsidies and a successful marketing campaign featuring celebrity endorsements, which have attracted older demographics in Japan [6][8] Consumer Preferences - Older consumers in Japan are increasingly purchasing Huawei smartwatches, drawn by their functionality and affordability [6][8] - Huawei's product designs, including round displays and specific features like golf course guidance, cater to diverse consumer needs [6] - The Apple Watch's advantages, such as contactless payment, are being challenged by Huawei's expanding feature set and longer battery life [7]