Core Viewpoint - Economists predict China's GDP growth for Q2 2025 to average 5.0%, slightly lower than the actual growth rate of 5.4% in Q1 2025, with trade tensions with the US being a significant concern but exports to Southeast Asia providing some support [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth Predictions - The highest predicted growth rate for Q2 2025 is 5.3%, while the lowest is 4.3%, indicating a slowdown compared to Q1 2025 [3]. - The average seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth rate is 0.8%, down from 1.2% in Q1 2025 [3]. - For the entire year of 2025, the average growth expectation is 4.6%, with many economists believing the government’s target of around 5% is unlikely to be met [4]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Impact - The US-China trade negotiations have led to a reduction in additional tariffs by 115%, which may improve the economic outlook [3]. - Despite a decrease in direct exports to the US, exports to ASEAN and other regions have compensated for this decline [3][4]. - The temporary suspension of additional tariffs is expected to maintain the effective tariff rate on Chinese products at around 40% until the end of 2025 [4]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Retail Sales - In May 2025, China's retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year, driven by government subsidies for replacing old appliances [3]. - However, analysts express concerns that this growth may be temporary, predicting a slowdown in the second half of the year [3]. Group 4: Economic Risks and Concerns - UBS warns that uncertainties in US-China negotiations could lower growth rates by 1-1.5 percentage points, with a predicted growth rate of 4% for 2025 being the lowest in the survey [6]. - Key risk factors identified include a sluggish real estate market and weak consumer spending, exacerbated by falling property prices [6]. - There are concerns about a potential deflationary spiral leading to worsened corporate performance and reduced consumer spending [6].

日本街头的上班族（资料图） 要让日本民众切实感受到收入增加的好处，工资的增长必须超过通胀率，实际工资要稳定在正值区间。 日本厚生劳动省的每月劳动统计显示，4月的实际工资（最终值、员工5人以上的事业所）比上年同月减 少2.0%，连续4个月负增长。 虽然出现继2024年之后再次超过5%的高水平，但中小企业为4.65%，未达到"6%以上"的目 标。日本中小企业雇用了70%左右日本国内的劳动力，而其中部分中小企业正在失去提高工资的余 力…… 日本的全国性工会组织"劳动组合总连合会" (简称：连合)7月3日公布了2025年春季劳资谈判（日本称： 春斗）回答的最终汇总结果。加薪率平均为5.25%，比上年提高0.15个百分点。虽然出现继2024年之后 再次超过5%的高水平，但中小企业为4.65%，未达到"6%以上"的目标。如果不能实现中小企业的加薪 的加速，实际工资的稳定增长将无从谈起。 连合汇总了截至7月1日上午10点收到的来自5162个工会组织的回答。包括提高基本工资和定期加薪在内 的加薪率达到了连合提出的作为2025年春季谈判目标的"整体5%以上"。 从明确区分上调基本工资和定期加薪的3594个工会组织的情况来看，上 ...

贝森特是在接受美国CNBC电视台采访时发表了上述言论。他表示："日本是伟大的盟友，但目前正处 于艰难的局面"，承认日美关税谈判正陷入停滞。 特朗普表示将很快向贸易伙伴国通知新的关税税率（reuters） 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）八十岛绫平 华盛顿报道 特朗普提到的"信件"中预计会写入9日以后的新税率。为了在最后期限的9日之前达成更多协 议，似乎试图向各国施压。一方面，关于与日本的关税谈判，美国财长贝森特暗示在9日谈判期限前可 能无法达成协议…… 美国总统特朗普当地时间7月3日表示，最快将从4日起，向正在推进关税谈判的贸易伙伴国发送有关新 关税税率的通知。为了在作为谈判最后期限的9日之前达成更多协议，似乎试图向各国施压。 特朗普7月3日在首都华盛顿近郊对记者做出了上述表示。特朗普称："现在将开始给各国发送"信件"。 也许从明天（4日）开始"。 美国以4月启动的对等关税部分停止措施到期的9日为最后期限，正在与贸易伙伴国进行最后的谈判。特 朗普提到的"信件"中预计会写入9日以后的新税率。实际上这些"信件"被认为会通过电子邮件等发送。 美国特朗普政府此前已与英国和越南两国达成贸易协议。特朗普提出看法称，今后 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's global sales have declined for two consecutive quarters, facing challenges from Chinese competitors like BYD and Xiaomi, which are rapidly gaining market share in the electric vehicle (EV) sector [1][3][9]. Group 1: Tesla's Sales Decline - Tesla's global sales dropped by 13% year-on-year in Q2, totaling 384,122 vehicles, marking a significant decline over two quarters [3]. - The absence of CEO Elon Musk from daily operations has contributed to operational chaos and a loss of customer trust [3][5]. - Tesla's sales in China have decreased for eight consecutive months, exacerbated by a lack of new vehicle launches over the past year and a half [5][7]. Group 2: Competition from Chinese Companies - BYD surpassed Tesla in EV sales for the first half of 2023, becoming the top seller in the market [1][7]. - Xiaomi's new EV model, YU7, is priced 10,000 yuan lower than Tesla's Model Y and offers 40% more range, showcasing superior cost-performance [7][8]. - Xiaomi's entry into the EV market has been marked by a business model that leverages software revenue post-sale, posing a significant threat to Tesla's future growth strategy [7][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Policy Implications - The U.S. government's tough stance on China, including high tariffs, is inadvertently benefiting Chinese EV manufacturers by strengthening their supply chains [9]. - China holds over 60% of the global market share in battery production, which is crucial for EV manufacturing, while U.S. EV companies face potential competitiveness issues due to the planned removal of subsidies [9]. - As of 2024, Chinese companies are projected to hold 55% of the global EV market share, compared to just 21% for U.S. companies, indicating a widening gap [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong interest of Yageo's chairman in acquiring Shibaura Electronics, aiming to expand globally and achieve synergies in the automotive sector [1] - Taiwan's direct investment in Japan has surged, with the number of approved investment cases in manufacturing increasing to 99 in 2024, a 2.2 times year-on-year growth, marking a historical high [2] - The total investment amount in 2024 reached $5.4902 billion, a 26-fold increase year-on-year, largely driven by TSMC's Kumamoto factory project [2] Group 2 - The competition between Taiwanese companies and mainland Chinese firms has intensified, prompting Taiwanese firms to seek collaboration with Japanese companies to enhance their business models [2] - The TOB battle over Shibaura Electronics sees Meiko Electronics advocating for the preservation of Japanese technology, while Yageo emphasizes the advantages of Taiwan-Japan cooperation [3] - The potential for a complementary relationship between Taiwanese and Japanese companies exists, especially if Japanese firms can integrate deeply into the supply chains of American companies like Apple and Nvidia [3]

Core Viewpoint - BYD plans to build a new factory in Mexico to employ 10,000 people, but the project faces significant challenges due to political pressures and trade negotiations between Mexico and the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Factory Plans and Challenges - BYD's new factory in Mexico was initially intended to be a major production base for the company, but the Mexican government has rejected the proposal due to pressure from the U.S. government [1][2] - The construction costs of the new factory are expected to be similar to those of BYD's recently launched factory in Brazil [1] - The Mexican government is cautious about appearing to welcome Chinese companies, as it could negatively impact ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. [2] Group 2: Sales Performance in Mexico - BYD's sales in Mexico have surged, with approximately 40,000 units sold in 2024, marking a nearly 100-fold increase from the previous year [3] - The company is gaining market share from major automotive manufacturers from Japan, the U.S., and Europe amid rising new car prices in Mexico [3] - BYD aims to double its sales in Mexico to around 80,000 units by 2025, further expanding its presence in the Central and South American markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's national general accounting tax revenue for the fiscal year 2024 is projected to be 75.232 trillion yen, marking a 4% increase from the previous year and setting a record high for five consecutive years [1] Group 1: Tax Revenue Breakdown - Corporate tax revenue is expected to reach 17.9101 trillion yen, the highest level since the bubble economy period, indicating significant corporate performance growth [1] - The increase in overall tax revenue is primarily driven by corporate tax, which has risen by 13% compared to the previous year, reaching levels not seen since the 1990 fiscal year [1] - Consumption tax has also increased by 8%, totaling 25.0212 trillion yen, reflecting strong domestic consumption and inflationary pressures [1]

在美越谈判中，如何应对中国产品借道越南向美国"迂回出口"也是重要议题 美国总统特朗普7月2日在社交媒体上宣布，"与越南就贸易谈判达成一致"。继英国之后，越南 成为与特朗普政府签署贸易协定的第2个国家。在亚洲属于首个…… 美国总统特朗普7月2日在社交媒体上宣布，"与越南就贸易谈判达成一致"。据悉，作为美国把对等关税 的税率降至20%的交换，越南将对从美国进口的产品实行零关税。特朗普称，"越南将为美国提供完全 的市场准入"。 特朗普透露，作为应对迂回出口的措施，双方还同意对在越南组装后运往美国的产品征收40%的关税。 美国2024年对越南的货物贸易逆差约为1235亿美元。越南的部长级官员此前多次访美，与美国商务部长 卢特尼克等人进行了磋商。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）八十岛绫平 华盛顿 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 继英国之后，越南成为与特朗普政府签署贸易协定的第2个国家。在亚洲属于首个。 越南方面也发布了相关消息。据悉，特朗普和越南最高领导人、越共中央总书记苏林通电话后达成了协 议。 特朗普发帖称，美国将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade negotiations between the United States and Japan are facing significant challenges, with Japan prioritizing the avoidance of increased tariffs on automobiles and other goods as the negotiation deadline approaches [1][2]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - President Trump has expressed skepticism about reaching an agreement with Japan, suggesting the possibility of raising tariffs to 30%-35% if negotiations fail [1]. - Japan's government has been forced to retreat from its initial negotiating positions, focusing on preventing substantial tariff increases [1][2]. - The Japanese government has proposed a comprehensive plan to expand investment and economic cooperation with the U.S., seeking the removal of tariffs on automobiles and other sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Political Context - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections are influencing the negotiation dynamics, making it difficult for Japan to make concessions in sensitive areas like agriculture and automobiles [3]. - Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasized the importance of investment over tariffs, highlighting Japan's status as the largest foreign investor in the U.S. [2]. - There is a concern within the Japanese government that if negotiations do not progress while Trump is interested, they may be sidelined [4]. Group 3: Future Negotiation Plans - Japan's Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister has indicated that a visit to the U.S. may occur if deemed necessary, although no specific plans have been confirmed [3]. - The Japanese government is attempting to update its proposals to align with what it believes the U.S. may accept, but there is a lack of confidence in presenting further substantial proposals [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election on July 3 will test the performance of the Shimo Abe administration and opposition parties, with key issues including measures against rising prices and social security reforms [1][2]. Group 1: Election Overview - A total of 516 candidates are competing for 125 seats in the Senate, with 343 in electoral districts and 173 in proportional representation [1]. - The election will determine half of the 248 Senate seats, with the ruling coalition aiming to secure over half of the contested seats [1]. - Prime Minister Shimo Abe has set a target for the ruling party to secure a majority, while the main opposition leader aims to keep the ruling party below a majority [1]. Group 2: Key Issues - The primary debate centers around strategies to address high prices, with the Constitutional Democratic Party proposing to eliminate the consumption tax on food starting April 2026 and provide a ¥20,000 subsidy before tax reduction [2]. - The ruling coalition has also proposed a ¥20,000 cash distribution to each citizen, while Prime Minister Shimo Abe criticized the tax reduction approach, emphasizing the importance of fiscal sources [2]. - Social security reform is a common ground for both ruling and opposition parties, with recent legislative changes to pension systems being a focal point [2]. Group 3: Election Dynamics - The outcome will heavily depend on the 32 single-member districts, where major opposition candidates will compete, potentially benefiting the ruling party if opposition votes are split [2]. - The performance of emerging parties like the Reiwa Shinsengumi and the Japan Conservative Party will also be closely watched [2]. - Voting will conclude at 8 PM on July 20, with results expected to be announced early on July 21 [2].