以下文章来源于中国金融四十人论坛 ，作者徐奇渊 中国金融四十人论坛 . 聚焦金融热点，速递论坛动态，独家发布论坛课题成果，连载书系新书、好书。 文/中国社会科学院美国研究所研究员 徐奇渊 当今全球产业链重构面临三重变局：地缘冲突、技术变革与中间国家再定 位。在此背景下，中国既面临产业外迁、美国技术"软封锁"与博弈复杂化 的压力，也拥有重要机遇，可凭借超大规模市场和完整产业体系，从"世 界 工 厂 " 升 级 为 " 全 球 供 应 链 关 键 枢 纽 "； 加 强 自 主 创 新 ， 结 合 产 业 链 优 势、市场体量与制度供给能力，深化与全球南方国家、中间国家、关键矿 产国等国家合作，成为"规则共建者"，赢得与自身经济体量和发展阶段相 匹配的制度性话语权。 2025年，世界在多重裂变中步入一个极不平凡的历史节点。在2025年4月初美国政府推出"对等关税"之后，连英国《经济学人》杂志也不得 不感慨，中国多年前提出的"百年未有之大变局"确实有"先见之明"。 与此同时，这一年的地缘政治冲突也持续不断，一波未平一波又起。在技术变革领域，人工智能（AI）与数字技术变革叠加中美科技竞争 显著加剧，技术体系的局部双轨化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving role of gold in the global economy, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions and changes in the international monetary system, highlighting its increasing importance as a strategic reserve asset and its potential for future appreciation [9][12]. Group 1: Gold Market Trends - Since 2025, gold prices have been on a significant upward trend, reaching historical highs, with prices surpassing $4,490 per ounce in December 2025, and a year-to-date increase of over 70% in international spot gold prices [8]. - Central banks globally have been net buyers of gold, with purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually from 2022 to 2024, marking a shift from net sellers to net buyers, particularly among emerging market central banks [10]. - The ratio of gold market value to the US M2 money supply is currently at 1.09, indicating potential for further price increases as confidence in the dollar weakens [9]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Implications - The article emphasizes that the geopolitical landscape, particularly post-Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led to a reconfiguration of international trade and reserve systems, with a shift towards a more multipolar trading system [11]. - The demand for gold is expected to rise as countries seek to hedge against dollar risks, with emerging markets increasingly driving this demand [12]. - The implementation of Basel III in 2025 is anticipated to enhance the demand for physical gold within the banking sector, further solidifying its role in the financial system [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - Gold is projected to maintain its strategic importance as a stable asset in an uncertain global economic environment, with recommendations for institutional investors to allocate 5% to 10% of their portfolios to gold [13]. - The article suggests that gold may evolve into a "digital currency anchor" as countries explore using gold reserves to back digital currencies, enhancing its role in trade settlements [12]. - Market participants are advised to adapt their strategies in response to changing tax policies affecting the gold market, focusing on higher value-added products and lower-tax investment vehicles like gold ETFs [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of central enterprises in serving the Party and national work, contributing to the construction of Chinese-style modernization [2][3]. Group 1: Responsibilities and Missions - Central enterprises have played a crucial role in the national economy, acting as a backbone and pillar since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party [3]. - On the new journey, central enterprises must recognize their responsibilities and better serve the national work agenda, focusing on high-quality economic development and improving people's livelihoods [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Directions - Central enterprises should focus on their main responsibilities, continuously optimize the layout of state-owned economy, and enhance core functions and competitiveness [3][5]. - There is a need to strengthen key core technology research, promote the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation, and ensure the safety and stability of enterprise development [3][5]. Group 3: Reform and Governance - Deepening reforms and improving the modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics is essential, along with enhancing corporate governance structures to address deep-seated issues hindering enterprise development [3][5]. - The leadership of the Party must be integrated into all aspects of corporate governance, with a focus on strict party discipline and creating a clean political environment [3][5]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Innovation - Central enterprises are expected to provide strong support for major infrastructure projects, accelerate the update of traditional infrastructure, and engage in new infrastructure construction [4][5]. - They should also play a leading role in ensuring the autonomy and control of industrial and supply chains, while developing emerging and future industries [5].

Core Viewpoint - Digital finance encompasses both technology-driven financial innovation and the digital transformation of the financial system, which is crucial for deepening financial reforms and promoting the integration of the digital economy with the real economy in China [3][4][8]. Group 1: Digital Transformation in Finance - The financial industry has made significant progress in digital transformation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, enhancing the efficiency of financial products and services [4]. - Policies such as the "Financial Technology Development Plan (2022-2025)" and guidelines for the digital transformation of banking and insurance sectors have accelerated the pace of digital transformation in financial institutions [5]. - Financial institutions are leveraging technologies like artificial intelligence, big data, and blockchain to improve risk control, marketing, investment advisory, and operational management [5]. Group 2: Support for Digital Economy - The core industries of the digital economy are expected to account for about 10% of GDP by 2024, with significant improvements in digital innovation capabilities [6]. - The People's Bank of China and other departments have launched initiatives to accelerate digital financial innovation, supporting the development of core industries in the digital economy [6]. - The loan balance for core industries of the digital economy reached 8.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.0%, indicating a faster growth rate compared to other loan categories [6]. Group 3: Future Development of Digital Finance - The expansion of the digital economy necessitates the development of digital finance to seize opportunities presented by technological revolutions and industrial transformations [7]. - The integration of data, algorithms, and resources is accelerating the construction of a national data center system, providing foundational support for the development of digital finance [7]. - Financial institutions are required to adapt to new demands from the digital economy, enhancing their understanding of market needs and optimizing financial products and risk control models [7]. Group 4: Strategies for High-Quality Development - Strengthening policy guidance and activating new momentum for the digital economy is essential, including the formulation of a development plan for digital finance during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [8]. - A comprehensive legal and regulatory framework is needed to support digital financial governance, focusing on data security, personal information protection, and algorithm ethics [8]. - Enhancing infrastructure and technological support is crucial, with an emphasis on advancing computing power and applying technologies like cloud computing and artificial intelligence [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the successful release of the "China Pension Finance Development Report 2025," which reflects on the past decade of pension finance exploration and aims to support the new phase of the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][31]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event was hosted by Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance and involved key stakeholders from various government departments, financial institutions, and media representatives, totaling nearly 200 attendees [7]. - The forum aims to advance the development of China's pension finance through research, policy, and practical initiatives [2]. Group 2: Key Speeches and Insights - Zhang Xiaoyan emphasized the importance of continuous research on pension system reforms and the design of pension financial products, highlighting the report's role in providing empirical references for policy-making [10]. - Dong Keyong discussed the need to enhance the multi-pillar pension system, focusing on improving basic pension insurance and expanding enterprise annuity coverage [12]. - Hu Xiaoyi outlined four key directions for pension insurance reform during the 14th Five-Year Plan, including a higher quality universal coverage plan and the development of a social insurance actuarial system [15]. - Zhou Yanli noted that the 14th Five-Year Plan is crucial for building a multi-tiered pension insurance system, emphasizing the need for top-level design and enhancing the long-term capital formation capacity [17]. - Ding Zhijie highlighted the importance of improving the urban and rural resident pension insurance system to enhance living standards and prevent elderly poverty [19]. Group 3: Thematic Discussions - Various leaders from financial institutions discussed the integration of technology and service innovation in pension finance, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive service system that includes government, enterprises, and individuals [20]. - Huang Tao pointed out that pension finance plays a foundational role in addressing aging populations and improving livelihoods, advocating for a focus on technological empowerment and institutional innovation [22]. - Sun Chen stressed the importance of solidifying the foundational institutional design of the pension system while ensuring the continuity of pension investments [24]. - Zhang Jingwen discussed the rapid development of the health and elderly care industry, highlighting the need for collaboration between financial resources and operational capabilities [27]. - Song Tao emphasized the connection between medical and pension security, advocating for a focus on real consumer needs in commercial insurance development [30]. Group 4: Report Highlights - The "China Pension Finance Development Report 2025" evaluates the progress of pension finance over the past year, focusing on the optimization of the three-pillar pension system and assessing key initiatives like simplified enterprise annuity plans [34]. - The report also analyzes international experiences, particularly Japan's pension system reforms, and discusses the paths for financial institutions and enterprises to advance pension finance [34]. - The report's findings indicate a shift in public demand for pension financial services towards more diversified risk allocation and a greater emphasis on the integration of finance and services [36].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new consumption model called "Reward Economy" among the younger demographic in China, which is becoming a significant driver of domestic demand and consumption expansion as the economy transitions from high-speed growth to high-quality development [2][3]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of "Reward Economy" - "Reward Economy" refers to consumers purchasing non-essential goods or experiential services within their financial means to gain immediate pleasure, self-affirmation, and psychological healing in response to work and life pressures [3][4]. - This consumption behavior is increasingly popular among young people, serving as an important indicator of the vitality and resilience of the current Chinese consumer market [3][4]. Group 2: Psychological and Social Drivers - The rise of "Reward Economy" is driven by psychological and sociological factors, including the need for self-repair of psychological resilience and the significant elevation of demand levels as per Maslow's hierarchy of needs [6][7]. - Approximately 30% of young consumers engage in spending for emotional healing, indicating a shift from functional consumption to meaningful consumption, where products carry emotional significance beyond their material value [6][7]. Group 3: Impact on Industry and Market Dynamics - The development of "Reward Economy" is reshaping consumer behavior and imposing higher demands on the supply side, promoting industrial structural transformation and market vitality [7]. - Companies are adjusting product strategies to meet diverse, personalized, and quality-oriented consumer preferences, leading to innovation and the creation of new business models that integrate emotional value [7][8]. Group 4: Cultural Consumption and Economic Growth - A significant portion of spending within the "Reward Economy" is concentrated in the cultural and creative sectors, such as domestic cultural products and traditional crafts, which are driving the growth of the cultural industry and promoting the innovative development of traditional Chinese culture [7][8].

Core Insights - The article discusses significant economic policies and events in China and Japan, highlighting the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, which marks a shift in monetary policy after decades of ultra-loose measures [9][11]. Group 1: Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port officially commenced full island closure operations on December 18, 2025, implementing a series of tax and customs policies aimed at enhancing trade and investment [9]. - The port focuses on four main industries: tourism, modern services, high-tech industries, and tropical agriculture, differentiating its development from that of Hong Kong and Macau [10]. - The "zero tariff" policy aims to maximize trade facilitation and efficient flow of resources, covering 86 industries, with tax differences exceeding 10% in 10 sectors, thereby enhancing market stability and supporting the real economy [10]. Group 2: Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy - On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, driven by persistent inflation and currency depreciation [11][12]. - This decision is seen as a critical step in Japan's economic transformation, aiming to balance inflation control with stable growth amid ongoing structural reforms and global economic changes [12]. Group 3: Government Meetings and Policies - The State Council of China emphasized the need for proactive implementation of economic policies to ensure a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan, urging departments to take responsibility and expedite the formulation of specific action plans [13][15]. - The People's Bank of China released the "Management Measures for the Identification of Beneficial Owners of Financial Institution Clients," effective January 20, 2026, aimed at enhancing anti-money laundering and compliance measures [17]. - A joint announcement by three departments introduced the "Price Behavior Rules for Internet Platforms," which regulates pricing practices to protect consumer rights and ensure fair competition among platform operators [18]. Group 4: Insurance and Financial Regulations - The draft "Asset-Liability Management Measures for Insurance Companies" was released for public consultation, aiming to strengthen asset-liability management and regulatory oversight in the insurance sector [20]. - The measures include establishing regulatory indicators and monitoring systems to prevent asset-liability mismatches and promote sustainable development in the insurance industry [20]. Group 5: Foreign Exchange Market - In November, China's banks recorded a foreign exchange settlement surplus of $15.7 billion, indicating a stable foreign exchange market amid ongoing global financial volatility [21]. - The stability in the foreign exchange market reflects China's resilience against external shocks, enhancing investor confidence and demonstrating the economy's ability to withstand fluctuations in the international market [22].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year is 3.0% and for five years and above is 3.5%, both remaining unchanged from the previous month [3] Group 2 - A call for submissions for the December issue of Tsinghua Financial Review is open, focusing on the investment logic of gold, historical cycles, and trend evolution [4]

央行发布最新政策《中国人民银行关于实施一次性信用修复政策有关安排的通知》（以下简称《通知》）。 此前，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在2025年金融街论坛上表示，将研究实施支持个人修复信用的政策措施。政策框架宣布后，各方都在期待政策的实施细 节。中国人民银行就《通知》相关问题进行回答： 问：符合哪些条件的逾期信息可以适用一次性信用修复政策，作不予展示处理？ 答： 一次性信用修复政策主要有四个方面的适用条件，一是适用对象限定于个人在金融信用信息基础数据库（即中国人民银行征信系统）中展示的信贷 逾期信息；二是适用时间区间要求逾期信息产生于2020年1月1日至2025年12月31日期间；三是适用金额为单笔逾期金额不超过1万元；四是适用前提是个 人在2026年3月31日（含）前足额偿还逾期债务。符合上述条件的逾期信息，将作不予展示处理。 问：个人是否需要主动申请适用一次性信用修复政策？ 问：个人如何确认本人逾期信息是否得到调整？ 答： 征信系统将对符合条件的逾期信息进行自动识别和统一处理，无需公众进行申请和确认操作。若个人需要了解相关逾期信息是否已不再展示，可以 通过多渠道获取本人信用报告，建议优先选择快捷、简便的线上方式进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation differences between state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private enterprises (PEs) in China, challenging the common belief that SOEs are undervalued. It reveals that SOEs exhibit a structural characteristic of low Price-to-Book (PB) ratios but high Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratios, providing a new perspective on the valuation logic of SOEs and the optimization of the capital market [2][4][6]. Valuation Differences - The discussion on the valuation differences between SOEs and PEs has been ongoing, especially with the introduction of the "中特估" concept. The prevailing narrative in the market suggests that SOEs are undervalued, but this article seeks to explore the reasons behind this perception and whether it is justified [4][5]. - Research indicates that contrary to the domestic view, studies based on East Asian economies often find that SOEs have higher valuations than PEs, highlighting a significant gap between public perception and academic findings [4][5]. Importance of Valuation Issues - The valuation of SOEs is crucial as they play a significant role in national strategy, industrial security, and employment stability. The valuation levels of SOEs affect not only investors' asset allocation strategies but also the efficiency of resource allocation in the capital market and the direction of SOE reforms [5]. Key Findings - The empirical research reveals that SOEs have a PB ratio that is significantly lower by 8.15% compared to non-SOEs, aligning with the common narrative of undervaluation. However, SOEs also have a PE ratio that is higher by 13.44% than non-SOEs, presenting a paradox that challenges the simplistic view of SOE valuation [7][8]. - This duality in valuation metrics suggests that SOE valuation cannot be simply categorized as undervalued or overvalued; rather, it represents a complex picture where different perspectives (asset vs. earnings) yield contrasting results [8]. Structural Perspective - The findings encourage a structural perspective on SOE valuation, suggesting that the valuation logic of SOEs is multifaceted and cannot be captured by a single metric. This approach lays the groundwork for further exploration of the economic logic behind the divergence in PB and PE ratios, such as future excess returns and differences in capital costs [8].