中央经济工作会议在北京举行 习近平发表重要讲话 李强作总结讲话 赵乐际王沪宁蔡奇丁薛祥李希出席会议 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平出席会议并发表重要讲话。中共中央政治 局常委李强、赵乐际、王沪宁、蔡奇、丁薛祥、李希出席会议。 习近平在重要讲话中总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。李强作总结讲话，对贯彻落实习近平总书记重要讲话 精神、做好明年经济工作提出要求。 会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年。以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏，坚定不移贯彻新发展理 念、推动高质量发展，统筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。我国经济顶压前行、向 新向优发展，现代化产业体系建设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力。过去5年，我们有 效应对各种冲击挑战，推动党和国家事业取得新的重大成就，"十四五"即将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 会议认为，通过实践，我们对做好新形势下经济工作又有了新的认识和体会：必须充分挖 ...

一是技术特性的长周期研发与高不确定性。人工智能技术研发周期远超传统行业，研发投入巨大、耗时长。例如大模型研发需要5～10年时间的持续投 入，以OpenAI的GPT-4模型研发为例，耗资超10亿美元、历经6年的迭代才得以推出。另据统计，全球人工智能企业倒闭案例中，68%是因为无法跨越商 业化的"死亡之谷"。 文/ 中国科学技术大学科技商学院、管理学院教授 姚加权 ，北京大学国家发展 研究院金光讲席研究员、智库中心常务副主任 范保群 人工智能正重塑全球竞争与文明进程，其长周期、高投入、高不确定性亟 须"耐心资本"护航。文章系统梳理AI企业成长新特征，剖析科创板五年 改革如何以包容制度引导长期资金，并建言上市标准、资金渠道、退出机 制 、 治 理 结 构 再 升 级 ， 呼 唤 资 本 与 制 度 共 振 ， 托 举 中 国 AI 跨 越 " 死 亡 之 谷"，抢占新质生产力制高点。 人工智能作为通用技术，是生产力革命的引擎和文明演进的关键变量 人工智能目前已超越了技术工具范围，日益在引领科技创新、突破关键领域，驱动经济转型升级、培育新质生产力，重构国际竞争格局、提升战略主动 权，重塑社会治理模式、提升治理效能，赋 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year and the sixth since September 2024, amidst concerns over economic uncertainty and rising inflation [2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 3 in favor of the rate cut, indicating a consensus on the need for monetary easing due to moderate economic expansion and rising unemployment [2]. - The statement highlighted that while economic activity is expanding, there are increasing risks to employment and a notable rise in inflation since the beginning of the year [2]. Economic Indicators - Employment growth has slowed down, and the unemployment rate has seen a slight increase, contributing to the Fed's decision to lower interest rates [2]. - The Fed acknowledged the high level of uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, particularly concerning the labor market [2]. Market Reactions - Prior to the decision, there were mixed views among Fed officials regarding the impact of tariff policies on inflation and the potential for further rate cuts in December, driven by deteriorating employment data [3].

随着国家正式启动"十五五"规划的宏伟蓝图，可持续发展正从一项关键战略，升级为衡量未来经济高质量发展的重要标尺。在此承前启后的 关键时刻，2025年成为中国可持续发展进程从"理念构建"迈向"实践深化"的关键年份。 企业非财务信息披露正经历一场深刻的"范式迁移"。 国务院国资委、证监会及沪深北交易所密集出台《央企ESG专项行动指南(2025)》、《上市公司信息披露管理办法》、《上市公司自律监管指 引——可持续发展报告（试行）》等相关政策，明确要求将可持续发展纳入公司治理核心，推动信息披露从"可选披露"迈向"规范披露"。 在此新周期下，金融机构作为资源配置的核心，已从理念倡导者转变为关键行动者。银行、保险、资管等机构正将ESG深度融入其战略与业 务流程，通过大力发展绿色金融、创新可持续金融产品、践行负责任投资、强化环境风险管理等一系列努力，精准引导金融活水支持实体经 济绿色低碳转型。 为系统梳理并推广实践，《清华金融评论》正式启动"2025可持续发展典型案例征集"活动，旨在搭建一个高层次的实践交流平台，通过征 集、遴选并展示在绿色金融、社会责任及可持续发展治理等领域的优秀案例，树立行业标杆，促进经验共享，共同助力中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and dynamics of the U.S. debt and the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency, highlighting the structural issues within the U.S. economy and the implications for global financial stability [3][5][6]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Structure and Debt - The U.S. economy is experiencing "deindustrialization," with a shift towards a service-oriented structure, leading to a shrinking middle class and increasing social tensions [3]. - As of October 21, 2025, the U.S. federal debt reached $38 trillion, marking the fastest increase in history, with interest payments exceeding $1 trillion in the 2024 fiscal year, accounting for 3.6% of GDP [5]. - The U.S. has been using the dollar as a financial sanction tool, which has deepened the dollar's credit crisis, leading to multiple instances of simultaneous declines in the dollar, U.S. stocks, and bonds since February 2025 [5]. Group 2: Relationship Between Dollar and U.S. Debt - The dollar and U.S. debt support each other; the dollar's dominance allows U.S. debt to be favored by global central banks and financial markets, while U.S. debt facilitates the international circulation of the dollar [6][10]. - The current expansion of U.S. debt is largely unrestrained due to a lack of internal motivation for fiscal discipline and the strong position of the dollar, making it difficult for the international community to impose effective constraints on U.S. debt growth [6]. Group 3: Future of the Dollar and Financial System - The U.S. government's strong support for dollar-pegged stablecoins, as evidenced by the signing of the "Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act," aims to reinforce the dollar's global dominance [7]. - The article emphasizes the need for a re-evaluation of the international monetary system to respect the monetary sovereignty of all countries, advocating for policy coordination among nations to promote a more balanced global financial order [8][10]. - The ongoing evolution towards a diversified international monetary system will involve long-term competition and friction, necessitating careful preparation and strategic planning by countries [8].

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 美联储将在北京时间12月11日降息25个基点的概率接近9 0%，市场还预 计，主席鲍威尔更可能采取 "鹰派降息"策略，即宣布降息25个基点，但 通过措辞强调后续降息门槛提高，以平衡内部分歧。鲍威尔将于2026年5 月卸任美联储主席一职，无论继任者是谁，20 26年转向宽松降息已成定 局，分歧在于节奏和幅度 。 市场目前预计美联储降息25个基点的概率接近90%，什么原因？ 美联储将于北京时间 12月11日凌晨公布议息会议结果。芝加哥商品交易所（CME ）FedWatch工具显示，截至12月8日，市场押注美联储12月降息25个基 点的概率接近90%，主要因近期美国就业数据疲软、通胀温和及经济放缓信号增强。 就业表现较为疲软。 受美国政府 "停摆"43天影响，美国一些关键的就业数据没有公布。被市场称为"小非农"的ADP就业报告显示，美国11月ADP就业人 数减少3.2万人，为2023年3月以来最低水平，预估为增加5000人，前值为增加4.2万人。 美国 ADP就业数据由美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）发布，每月公布一次，通常在每月第一个周三发布。 通货膨胀温和。 由于美国政府一度 "停摆" ...

二、PPI环比继续上涨，同比降幅略有扩大 PPI环比上涨0.1%，连续两个月上涨。本月PPI环比运行的主要特点：一是国内部分行业需求季节性增加带动其价格上涨。各地"迎峰度冬"开 始，煤炭、燃气需求季节性增加，煤炭开采和洗选业价格环比上涨4.1%，煤炭加工价格上涨3.4%，燃气生产和供应业价格上涨0.7%。入冬以 来，防寒保暖产品进入消费旺季，毛织造加工价格上涨0.6%，羽绒制品加工价格上涨0.2%。二是输入性因素影响国内有色金属和石油相关行 业价格走势分化。国际有色金属价格上行带动国内有色金属矿采选业价格环比上涨2.6%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨2.1%，其中铜 冶炼、金冶炼、铝冶炼价格分别上涨2.9%、1.4%和0.2%。国际油价下行影响国内石油和天然气开采业价格下降2.4%，精炼石油产品制造价格 下降2.2%。 PPI同比下降2.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，主要受上年同期对比基数走高影响。我国各项宏观政策不断显效，价格呈现积极变化。一 是综合整治"内卷式"竞争成效显现，相关行业价格同比降幅收窄。重点行业产能治理持续推进，市场竞争秩序不断优化，煤炭开采和洗选 业、光伏设备及元器件制造、锂离子 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's cross-border direct investment, highlighting a shift from net outflows to net inflows in foreign direct investment, despite ongoing external pressures such as tariffs and trade protectionism [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Trends - In the first three quarters of 2023, China's net outflow of outward direct investment decreased year-on-year, while foreign direct investment shifted from net outflow to net inflow [1][2]. - The cross-border direct investment still shows a deficit, but the deficit amount has halved compared to the previous year, indicating an improvement in capital flow under direct investment [1][2]. - From 2021 to 2024, China's cross-border direct investment transitioned from a surplus to a deficit, with the deficit increasing by $319 billion [9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Investment - The significant reduction in foreign direct investment inflows is attributed to a sharp decline in equity investment inflows and a reversal in inter-company debt flows [11][12]. - Equity investment inflows dropped from $300.6 billion to $72.8 billion between 2021 and 2024, contributing to 70% of the total decline in foreign direct investment inflows [11]. - The net outflow of equity investment remained stable, with a slight increase from $152.4 billion to $130 billion, indicating that the primary reason for the decrease in outward direct investment was the reduction in inter-company debt outflows [26]. Group 3: Government Response and Economic Outlook - The Chinese government has implemented measures to mitigate external shocks, including deepening reforms and expanding high-level opening-up policies [18][19]. - In response to external pressures, the government has introduced a foreign investment stabilization plan, focusing on easing foreign investment access and optimizing the business environment [19]. - The first three quarters of 2023 saw a 50.8% reduction in the cross-border direct investment deficit, primarily due to increased foreign direct investment inflows and decreased outward direct investment outflows [22].

12月8日，金融监管总局副局长肖远企在香港亚洲保险论坛2 02 5上，就保 险公司利率双向波动管理、非银行金融资产投资与保险投资关联性进一步 提高、将保险公司商业模式可持续性评估纳入监管重点等多个行业热点话 题发表见解。 第三，人工智能科技应用很可能将大幅拓展保险生产最大可能性边界 我们知道，科技与金融从来就是相辅相成，相互促进的。本轮以人工智能为代表的科技产业革命给包括保险在内的金融行业带来的影响可能是全 方位的。作为经济学概念的最大生产可能性边界，既可用来说明在一定技术与资源条件下可能生产的两种或多种商品最大数量的组合，也可用来 描述由于重大技术进步可能产生最大生产可能性曲线的外延和拓展。 重大科技革命总能带来金融的总量增长，因为科技革命催生的经济产出增加与社会福祉改善，客观上带来了金融业的增量。另一方面，人工智能 的发展有助于更好更有效率地配置资源，潜力可以充分挖掘，更多的资源很有可能"恰到好处"地分布在生产可能性曲线之上，完成现有资源的最 优配置。两方面都会带动包括保险在内的金融业现有潜力的充分释放和未来增长边界的突破，从而推动最大生产可能性边界向外移动。 以下为讲话全文： 很高兴参加亚洲保险论坛20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) is a significant milestone in the market-oriented, legal, and international development of China's capital market, aimed at enhancing market functions and supporting technological innovation [4]. Group 1: Development and Achievements of the STAR Market - Since its establishment in 2018, the STAR Market has made notable progress in facilitating direct financing for technology enterprises, promoting deep integration of capital and industry, and exploring a disclosure-oriented regulatory system [4]. - The STAR Market has evolved through three phases: the establishment phase (2019-2020), the improvement phase (2021-2023), and the deepening reform phase (2024 onwards) [6]. - The establishment phase introduced a pilot registration system with five market capitalization-based listing standards, allowing unprofitable companies and those with special equity structures to list, thus enhancing issuance efficiency [6]. - The improvement phase saw the implementation of a comprehensive registration system and the establishment of a more complete market ecosystem, including the introduction of market maker systems and the first global depository receipts (GDR) [6]. - The deepening reform phase includes measures to enhance the registration system and investment coordination mechanisms, such as establishing a growth tier and expanding the applicability of the fifth set of standards [6]. Group 2: Challenges in the STAR Market - Despite a relatively mature system, structural issues remain, including a cautious execution of the registration system, which affects the balance between "release" and "management" [7]. - The mechanism for identifying sci-tech attributes does not adequately match the characteristics of emerging industries, relying heavily on traditional metrics like R&D investment and patent numbers [8]. - The marketization level of the primary market and the connection with the secondary market need improvement, as the collaboration between state funds and specialized investment institutions is unclear [8]. - The investment exit mechanism lacks flexibility, with long lock-up periods for strategic investors and pre-IPO institutions, impacting reinvestment capabilities and market liquidity [8]. - Red-chip companies face challenges related to valuation discrepancies, complex ownership structures, and cross-border regulatory coordination, leading to unstable market expectations [8]. Group 3: Optimization Paths for the STAR Market - Strengthening the identification mechanism for sci-tech attributes by emphasizing market mechanisms and professional investment capabilities, avoiding rigid administrative standards [10]. - Expanding the applicability of the fifth set of listing standards to include more flexible and industry-differentiated criteria, particularly for light-asset industries like AI and cloud computing [11]. - Constructing a comprehensive information disclosure mechanism covering the entire lifecycle of enterprises, including establishing a database for prospective listed companies and enhancing penalties for fraudulent disclosures [12]. - Exploring recognition mechanisms for early-stage and small-scale venture capital institutions to foster a more specialized investment ecosystem [13].