Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "anti-involution" as a new phase of supply-side reform, termed "Supply-Side Reform 2.0," highlighting the structural imbalance between supply and demand as the core contradiction driving economic challenges in China [5]. Group 1: Similarities between Anti-Involution and Supply-Side Reform - Both anti-involution and supply-side reform are characterized by structural imbalances in supply and demand, leading to decreased capacity utilization, falling prices, shrinking corporate profits, and increased economic downward pressure [7]. - Industrial capacity utilization has significantly declined, with a drop from 76.8% in Q4 2013 to 72.9% in 2016 during the supply-side reform, and from 77.4% in Q4 2021 to 74.0% by Q2 2025 in the anti-involution phase [7]. - Industrial prices have seen substantial declines, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) entering negative growth for 54 months during the supply-side reform and continuing negative growth for 34 months since October 2022 in the anti-involution phase [9]. - Corporate profits have decreased, with a 2.3% decline in industrial profits in 2015 during the supply-side reform, and a 1.8% decline in the first seven months of 2025 during the anti-involution phase [12]. - Economic downward pressure has intensified, with GDP growth slowing from 8.1% in Q4 2012 to 6.9% in Q4 2015 during the supply-side reform, and stabilizing around 5% during the anti-involution period [14]. Group 2: Differences between Anti-Involution and Supply-Side Reform - The macroeconomic environment differs, with anti-involution facing more severe demand shortages due to population decline and a downturn in the real estate market, while supply-side reform had resilient demand supported by post-crisis recovery [18][22]. - Industry characteristics vary, as supply-side reform focused on traditional industries like steel and coal, whereas anti-involution encompasses a broader range of sectors, including emerging industries and platform economies [25][27]. - The underlying causes differ, with supply-side reform driven by excess capacity from previous stimulus policies, while anti-involution is influenced by a range of macroeconomic and industry-specific factors, including real estate adjustments and technological shifts [36][37]. - Implementation paths diverge, with supply-side reform relying on administrative measures to cut excess capacity, while anti-involution emphasizes legal and market-based approaches to regulate competition and foster innovation [45][49].

Core Viewpoint - Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) have emerged as a significant financial tool, capturing over 60% of the U.S. IPO market share and raising more than $220 billion during the 2020-2021 period. Despite regulatory tightening in 2022 leading to a decline in market enthusiasm, SPACs continue to be active and serve as an important supplement to traditional IPOs [3]. Group 1: SPAC Definition and Market Evolution - SPAC stands for Special Purpose Acquisition Company, a financial instrument designed for company listings. It originated in the U.S. in the 1990s and gained traction after becoming legalized post-2005. SPACs operate as "pure cash" shell companies with the sole purpose of acquiring one or more target companies, primarily non-listed firms [5][6]. - The advantages of SPACs compared to traditional IPOs are encapsulated in the "three reductions and one increase": reduced time costs, lower compliance thresholds, diminished market volatility impact, and increased financing certainty. This new pathway to public markets offers previously unknown quality companies unprecedented opportunities [6]. Group 2: Mechanisms and Challenges of SPACs - SPACs face several challenges, including stricter regulatory requirements for information disclosure and conflicts of interest between shareholders and sponsors. The initial funding and IPO costs are primarily sourced from the sponsors, who typically hold about 20% of the issued shares post-IPO. If a merger is not completed, the raised funds are returned to investors, but sponsors can profit regardless of post-merger stock performance [8]. - The case of Churchill Capital III acquiring Multiplan illustrates the potential misalignment of interests, where shareholders suffered significant losses post-merger while the sponsor profited due to their low-cost shares. This raises concerns about SPACs being perceived as tools for wealth transfer rather than value creation [8]. Group 3: Value Analysis of SPACs - Research focuses on the dual characteristics of SPACs, which possess both value-creating capabilities and agency cost issues. A structural model is constructed to analyze the incentive mechanisms and market impacts of SPACs, particularly during the de-SPAC process [10][11]. - The model assumes that SPACs can create value through mergers, but this value creation is influenced by agency costs and information frictions between sponsors and shareholders. Shareholders rely on the sponsor's reputation and transaction terms to infer expected returns, impacting their decisions on whether to redeem shares [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the role and impact of central banks in the global economy, particularly focusing on unconventional monetary policies implemented during the 2007-2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting both their effectiveness and unintended negative consequences [3][4]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction emphasizes the pervasive influence of central banks, likening their role to both a magician and a dictator in the economic world, and discusses the mysterious qualities of power in financial systems [8]. Chapter 1: Legacy of the Great Depression - This chapter explores the historical context of central banking, including the lessons learned from past financial crises and the evolution of crisis management strategies [8]. Chapter 2: Leverage as Poison - It identifies five driving factors behind the largest financial crisis in history, including the U.S. housing bubble and the role of securitization in spreading risk [8]. Chapter 3: The Road to Hell - The chapter details the global spread of financial turmoil, the interplay between monetary markets and major financial institutions, and the responses from the U.S. and European central banks [8]. Chapter 4: Breaking the Norms - This section discusses the unconventional measures taken during financial crises, such as zero interest rates and quantitative easing, and the challenges faced by central banks in managing these policies [9]. Chapter 5: High Costs - It outlines various syndromes that emerged from the financial crisis, illustrating the complex consequences of central bank interventions and the emergence of shadow banking [9]. Chapter 6: The Eve of Change - The final chapter reflects on the need for a paradigm shift in monetary policy, questioning the long-standing 2% inflation target and advocating for a more balanced approach to financial stability [9]. Conclusion - The conclusion calls for a new path towards stable growth in the financial system, moving beyond unconventional measures [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the achievements and future directions of China's fiscal policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the strengthening of fiscal capabilities, proactive macroeconomic adjustments, and a focus on improving people's livelihoods [3][4][5][6][10]. Group 1: Fiscal Strength and Achievements - National fiscal strength has significantly increased, with general public budget revenue expected to reach 106 trillion yuan, a 19% increase from the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [4]. - General public budget expenditure is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase, with a focus on optimizing the structure to support major development and livelihood projects [4]. - The fiscal policy has been actively adjusted to enhance economic stability, contributing to an average growth rate of 5.5% over the past four years, with a 30% contribution to global economic growth [5]. Group 2: Focus on People's Livelihoods - The fiscal budget allocates significant resources to education (20.5 trillion yuan), social security and employment (19.6 trillion yuan), healthcare (10.6 trillion yuan), and housing security (4 trillion yuan), totaling nearly 100 trillion yuan for livelihood investments [6]. - Initiatives such as 1 billion yuan for childcare subsidies and 200 million yuan for free preschool education demonstrate a commitment to addressing public concerns [6]. Group 3: Risk Management and Reform - The government has implemented measures to manage local government debt, with nearly 50 trillion yuan allocated for transfers to local governments, ensuring stable fiscal operations [6][8]. - Fiscal reforms focus on optimizing resource allocation, enhancing efficiency, and clarifying responsibilities between central and local governments [7][16]. Group 4: International Cooperation and Global Engagement - The Ministry of Finance is actively involved in international financial cooperation, participating in over 26 multilateral and bilateral financial dialogue mechanisms, and promoting global economic governance reforms [8][42]. - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has reached 110 members and financed over 60 billion USD, showcasing China's commitment to global inclusive development [8]. Group 5: Future Directions - The Ministry of Finance aims to enhance macroeconomic regulation, deepen fiscal reforms, and improve fiscal management to support the goal of building a modern socialist country [9][10]. - The focus will be on expanding domestic demand, supporting technological self-reliance, and ensuring the sustainability of poverty alleviation efforts [20][23][38].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is becoming a crucial driver for the high-quality development of green transportation, serving as a foundational infrastructure for green transportation systems, and is expected to see a premium scale of approximately 2 trillion RMB in the green transportation sector from 2020 to 2030 [4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The "Blue Book" outlines the current state, policy evolution, risk landscape, and insurance innovations across five key sectors: new energy vehicles, low-altitude economy, green logistics, green shipping, and rail transportation, all centered around the "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" strategy [3][4]. - The transition from "incremental expansion" to "green quality improvement" in green transportation presents unprecedented development opportunities, with the number of new energy vehicles in China expected to rise from less than 5 million in 2020 to 31.4 million by 2024, accounting for over 60% of the global total [6]. Group 2: Insurance Role and Market Dynamics - The insurance sector has evolved from a marginal compensatory role to a deep collaborative role in green transportation, with new energy vehicle insurance premiums increasing from 3.4 billion RMB in 2015 to 100.1 billion RMB in 2023 [7]. - The insurance function has shifted from simple compensation to a comprehensive service model encompassing risk identification, process control, and intelligent claims management [8]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the low-altitude economy, insurance premiums are projected to exceed 5 billion RMB by 2030, with drone insurance being a significant growth driver [10]. - The new energy vehicle insurance market is expected to exceed 500 billion RMB by 2030, becoming a key growth point in the auto insurance market, with a noted correlation between vehicle torque levels and accident rates [10]. - The green shipping insurance market is anticipated to grow from approximately 430 million RMB in 2024 to over 1.9 billion RMB by 2030, with a focus on developing a risk-sharing mechanism for various fuel types [11]. Group 4: Policy and Regulatory Framework - The top-level design has positioned insurance as a critical institutional support for the green transportation system, as highlighted in various government action plans and guidelines [6][8]. - The "Blue Book" emphasizes the need for the insurance industry to transition from traditional post-event compensation to a proactive role in comprehensive risk governance to support the sustainable development of green transportation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the pricing logic of gold fundamentally returns to one point: demand, highlighting the complexity of gold's pricing framework due to its diverse demand composition across different economic cycles [5][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since late April, the gold price has broken a prolonged stagnation, with spot gold reaching a historical high of $3,674.78 on September 9, marking an increase of over $1,000 per ounce and a year-to-date rise of 40% [3][5]. - The surge in gold prices since 2022 is attributed to geopolitical factors, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which initiated a unique central bank gold purchasing trend [5][6]. Group 2: Future Gold Demand - The trend of central banks purchasing gold is expected to continue into 2023 and 2024, with emerging market investors from countries like China and India contributing significantly to physical gold demand [5][6]. - The marginal pricing of gold in 2024 will be influenced by factors such as deflation in China and the reshaping of Asian supply chains, which will have economic spillover effects [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Risk-Return Profile - Gold's unique risk-return characteristics allow it to optimize the risk-adjusted returns of investment portfolios, making it a strategic asset in various macroeconomic scenarios [17][20]. - A quantitative framework is proposed to determine the optimal allocation of gold in multi-asset portfolios, with a suggested minimum allocation of 6% and a maximum of 7.7% to maintain a balance between risk and return [22][23]. Group 4: Economic and Financial Factors - Gold's long-term price dynamics are influenced by both economic factors (like GDP growth) and financial factors (global investment portfolios), reflecting its dual nature as both a consumption and investment asset [19][20]. - Historical data shows that gold has a lower correlation with major asset classes, which aids in diversifying investment portfolio risks [20][21]. Group 5: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Iran conflict, have not significantly impacted gold prices, indicating that gold's pricing is not solely driven by geopolitical events [27][28]. - The article suggests that the market's focus may shift towards "recession trades" and liquidity easing as key drivers for gold prices in the latter half of the year [29].

文/ 《清华金融评论》 王茅 黄 金 期 货 近 期 创 下 370 0 美 元 的 历 史 新 高 ， 推 动 力 量 包 括 美 联 储 降 息 前 景、特朗普威胁对俄罗斯展开新一轮制裁，以及国际黄金协会计划推出挂 钩黄金的数字货币。影响黄金长期走势的则包括4大因素，分别为美元走 势、美国实际利率、市场风险偏好、央行购买黄金。观察黄金未来走势， 就要看这4大因素是否发生变化。 近期金价创 纪 录新高的3个原因 北京时间 9月9日 晚 ，在美国劳工部 公布大幅下修就业数据前，纽约黄金期货 价格 大涨，突破了 3700美元 /盎司 ， 创下 史无前例的纪录高位，在突破 这一历史性点位之后，黄金期货价格随即出现了回落。 本次金价又创新高，直接原因在于， 美国财长贝森特此前预警称，年度非农就业数据可能下修多达 80万，这加剧了市场对美国经济状况的担忧。而后金 价有所回落也属正常， 毕竟短期内金价涨得太过猛烈，需要进行整固。 事实上，美国劳工统计局报告显示，对 2025年3月之前年度非农就业数据的修正值较初值减少了91.1万个岗位，比 贝森特提到的数据还要差，但由于他给 市场提前打了 "预防针"，减少了市场的大幅震 ...

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between population aging and debt has become a focal point at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, highlighting that global aging increases fiscal burdens and expands demand for debt assets, creating a "high debt - low interest rate" equilibrium. However, this equilibrium is fragile and not solely determined by demographic factors, as it also depends on interest rate sensitivity to debt, international capital flows, and political stability [2][4][7]. Group 1: Aging Population and Debt Dynamics - The aging population leads to significant increases in fiscal spending, including rising pension payments and healthcare costs, which contribute to persistent fiscal deficits and an upward trend in government debt [4][5]. - Aging not only raises government fiscal burdens but also expands societal demand for safe, long-term investment tools, such as government bonds, allowing governments to issue large amounts of debt at very low interest rates [5][6]. - The political landscape shifts towards older voters, making it more challenging to implement tax increases or spending cuts, resulting in a tendency for governments to opt for "more borrowing" rather than "spending less" [5][6]. Group 2: Fragility of the Current Equilibrium - Despite the apparent sustainability of the "high debt - low interest rate" equilibrium, its fragility is underscored by factors such as interest rate sensitivity to debt, global capital market demand, and political stability [7][8]. - The estimated Debt Sensitivity to Interest Rate (DSIR) is around 0.5 basis points, suggesting that a significant increase in debt-to-GDP ratios could lead to a more pronounced rise in interest rates, potentially worsening fiscal outlooks [7][8]. - Global demand for U.S. Treasury bonds may not remain constant, as geopolitical tensions and the emergence of alternative reserve currencies could weaken reliance on U.S. debt, exposing vulnerabilities in debt sustainability [8]. Group 3: Long-term Solutions - The long-term solution lies in structural fiscal reforms and productivity enhancements, as the current equilibrium, while providing short-term stability, poses long-term risks [12][14]. - Initiating structural fiscal adjustments can help stabilize market confidence and prevent debt expectations from spiraling out of control, while investments in technology, education, and labor market reforms are essential for boosting productivity [14]. - Future monetary policy may need to navigate complex trade-offs among inflation, employment, and fiscal constraints, with central banks facing greater discretion and associated credibility risks [14].

Core Viewpoint - The initial rights definition and minimization of transaction costs are prerequisites for establishing a unified national data factor market, which will drive the industrialization and fair pricing of data factors, ultimately benefiting the real economy [3][4]. Group 1: Basic Elements for Building a Unified Data Factor Market - The four basic elements for constructing a unified national data factor market are initial rights definition, transaction cost minimization, infrastructure development, and industrialization [4]. - Current obstacles to data factor market construction include unclear data property rights and high transaction costs, primarily due to the lagging property rights system behind technological advancements [4][5]. Group 2: Key Scientific Issues in Data Factor Market Construction - The initial rights definition of data resource development and utilization plays a foundational role in the construction of a unified data factor market, while transaction cost issues need urgent solutions [5]. - The construction of data circulation infrastructure introduces a technology trust mechanism, supporting data resource development, transaction pricing, and regulatory safety [5]. - The industrialization of data factors will act as an accelerator in promoting the construction of a unified national market [5]. Group 3: Data Property Rights Governance - The "Data Twenty Articles" propose a structural division of data property rights, which, while aligning with social equity from a legal perspective, presents significant logical conflicts from an economic standpoint [7]. - The classification and grading of data rights can increase transaction costs and complicate the sharing and trading of data resources, leading to data protectionism and monopolization [7][8]. - The initial rights to data resource development should ideally be assigned to the government, which can represent public interests and facilitate the efficient use of data resources [9]. Group 4: Transaction Cost Issues in Data Factor Market - Five key transaction costs affecting data factor flow include externality transaction costs, communication transaction costs, institutional transaction costs, intermediary service costs, and application delivery costs [11]. - High transaction costs hinder the incentive mechanisms for data resource circulation and utilization, necessitating government intervention to reduce these costs [12].

文/清华大学公共管理学院教授、人工智能国际治理研究院副院长 梁正 ，清华大 学公共管理学院博士后、人工智能国际治理研究院助理研究员 田贵平 ，清华大 学公共管理学院博士后、人工智能国际治理研究院助理研究员 宋雨鑫 当前人工智能全球治理面临"行动赤字"，存在发展、公平和安全三个维度 的挑战。在2 025年7月世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议 上，中国发布的《人工智能全球治理行动计划》为破解治理困境提供了务 实方案，其构建了普惠包容的治理框架，将人工智能定位为"国际公共产 品"，提出发展、安全、公平多维统筹的制度设计，并倡导建立多元协同 的国际治理网络。这标志着全球人工智能治理从理念共识迈向实质行动的 关键转变，为构建更加公正、包容、可持续的治理体系指明了方向。 面对人工智能技术迭代加速与治理滞后的结构性矛盾，人工智能全球治理亟需从理念倡导走向行动实践。《人工智能全球治理行动计划》作为中国的系统 性治理方案，以鲜明的发展导向和行动逻辑，为破解人工智能全球治理的"行动赤字"和多维困境指引明晰路径，体现了构建更加公平包容的全球治理体系 的中国智慧与责任担当。 多维困境：人工智能全球治理的挑战 当前，全球人 ...