文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 下一任美联储主席候选人中，前美联储理事凯文·沃什与美国白宫国家经 济委员会主任凯文 · 哈西特竞争激烈，特朗普明确支持大幅降息并干预人 选选择， 202 6 年利率政策或受政治压力与经济数据双重影响。 美联储主席最终人选将于 2026 年 1 月初公布，需通过参议院确认。 特朗普对美联储下任主席的态度与干预 特朗普多次要求将美国联邦基金利率降至 1% 甚至更低，以降低国债融资成本，并称任何不同意我观点的人不会成为美联储主席，他还于 12 月 24 日重 申，下任主席在利率决策前咨询其意见。 现任美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于 2026 年 5 月 15 日 届满，美联储下一任主席究竟花落谁家，受到市场广泛关注，因为美联储的政策取向，将影响全球 流动性、大宗商品与矿业表现，以及资本市场走势。 美联储主席候选人格局 目前看来，下一任美联储主席很可能在美国白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文 · 哈西特和前美联储理事凯文 · 沃什之间产生。 特朗普近期曾公开表示，沃什为 " 头号候选人 " ， 12 月早些时候相关数据显示，提名概率一度飙升至 47% 。他的政策立场被称为是 " 鹰派改革者 " ，主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The low proportion of final consumption by the household sector in GDP and insufficient consumer capacity and willingness are significant reasons for weak consumption in China. The central economic work conference in December 2024 and the government work report for 2025 prioritize "boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency, and expanding domestic demand" as key tasks for 2025. Improving residents' income levels, diversifying income sources, and enhancing the income distribution system are crucial for stimulating consumption [1][2]. Group 1: Consumption and Income Distribution - The final consumption only accounts for about 65% of disposable income, which is significantly lower than international levels, lagging behind Germany by 16 percentage points and the United States by 18 percentage points [2]. - The proportion of household final consumption in GDP is approximately 15 percentage points lower than the international average, indicating a need for improvement in domestic consumption [2]. - The adjustment of household disposable income (AHDI) is a critical indicator for assessing living conditions across countries, reflecting the distribution of income between the household and non-household sectors [5][4]. Group 2: AHDI and International Comparison - China's AHDI has consistently been lower than international levels, which restricts the growth of household consumption. In 2007, the AHDI was only 59.9%, a decline of 11.2 percentage points since 1992, with a widening gap compared to other countries [6]. - In 2022, the proportion of disposable income in GDP for households was 60.3%, nearing levels in France (61.9%), Germany (61.3%), and Japan (60.9%), but the AHDI gap with major economies remains significant [8]. Group 3: Income Sources and Growth - The primary source of income for residents is wage income, which is overly reliant and affects marginal consumption propensity, leading to slower income growth [11]. - Labor income constitutes nearly 85% of disposable income, significantly higher than in Germany (71%), Japan (78%), France (75%), and the United States (64%), which results in lower consumption propensity [12]. - The average number of people per small business in China is over 100, compared to 30 in Japan and about 10 in the U.S., indicating a lack of capital income sources [12]. Group 4: Income Growth Trends - After 2020, the growth rate of household income has slowed, with the median growth rate of urban residents' disposable income lagging behind GDP growth [13]. - The average growth rate of urban residents' disposable income from 2013 to 2023 was 6.8%, while the GDP growth rate was 6.0%. Post-COVID, this growth rate further declined to 4.6%, below GDP growth [13]. - Income growth disparities are evident, with only Tibet and Xinjiang showing growth rates above 5% in 2024, while major cities like Guangdong, Shanghai, and Beijing reported lower growth rates [13]. Group 5: Wealth Distribution and Inequality - There is a significant income distribution gap, with high-income households earning 10.3 times more than low-income households, compared to 8.4 times in the U.S. and around 5 times in Western Europe [15]. - Wealth concentration is even more pronounced, with the top 10% of the population holding 82.8% of total wealth, and the top 1% holding 31.5% [15]. Group 6: Social Security and Healthcare - The social safety net is not adequately established, with low pension coverage and sustainability concerns. The average monthly pension for rural residents is only 205 yuan, while urban retirees receive an average of 3605 yuan [17]. - High out-of-pocket medical expenses, particularly in rural areas, burden low-income groups, with a self-payment ratio of 35% in 2020, higher than in the U.S. and Europe [17].

12月26日，国家创业投资引导基金正式启动，京津冀创业投资引导基金、长三角创业投资引导基金、粤港澳大湾区创业投资引导基金三只区 域基金设立运行。 国家发展改革委召开专题新闻发布会。会上，国家发展改革委创新和高技术发展司司长白京羽表示，国家创业投资引导基金的定位具备四个 特点： 一是坚持做早期基金。 今天的科技领军企业都是曾经的种子企业、初创企业，这类种子企业和初创企业成长性好，前景广阔，但同时 风险也比较高，不确定性比较大。社会资本对他们普遍很关注，但投资持谨慎态度。针对这一问题，引导基金将种子期、初创期、早中期企 业作为投资的重点，支持企业聚焦前沿领域，开展原创性、颠覆性的技术攻关； 二是坚持做耐心基金 。科创企业成长壮大是一场旷日持久的 马拉松，需要资本的耐心陪伴，引导基金设置20年存续期，其中10年投资期，10年退出期，通过更长久的投资期限，为企业提供长周期的资 金供给，又通过更宽松的退出机制，为企业提供更多的发展空间； 三是坚持做市场化基金。 中央出资设立创业投资引导基金，需要统筹兼顾 政策目标和市场化原则； 四是做标杆基金。 引导基金不搞重复投资，不与市场争利，重在解决创投行业长期资本短缺的问题。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing high growth of global debt, driven by a loose financial environment, a weakening dollar, and more accommodative policies from major central banks. It highlights the risks associated with debt growth outpacing economic output, leading to potential financial instability and a cycle of increasing concern among investors [2][4]. Group 1: Global Debt Growth - Global debt is experiencing sustained high growth, raising concerns about its sustainability and the potential for financial market turmoil [4]. - The rapid increase in debt compared to economic output can lead to a vicious cycle where high interest payments crowd out essential government spending on education, healthcare, and infrastructure [4]. - Emerging markets are identified as the most vulnerable segment within the global debt chain, facing significant risks from rising debt levels [4]. Group 2: Policy Responses and Implications - The article emphasizes the need for countries to seek a balance between growth, risk prevention, and maintaining livelihoods in the face of rising debt levels [4]. - It calls for an analysis of how different countries can respond to the challenges posed by high debt, particularly in a high-interest rate environment, which may lead to capital outflows and currency depreciation in emerging markets [4]. - The editorial team of Tsinghua Financial Review is inviting contributions to explore various aspects of global debt, including its impacts and potential policy measures [5][8]. Group 3: Submission Guidelines - The article outlines submission guidelines for contributions, including a word count of 4000 to 6000 words, originality, and a deadline for submissions by January 10, 2025 [9][11]. - Authors are encouraged to provide a brief biography, contact information, and an academic resume along with their submissions [11].

Group 1: Core Views - The article emphasizes the importance of central enterprises as the main force in technological innovation, focusing on overcoming key technological challenges and enhancing the country's strategic capabilities in science and technology [3][4][5]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - Central enterprises have made significant investments in R&D, exceeding 1 trillion yuan annually for three consecutive years, targeting critical technologies such as industrial mother machines and software [3]. - The focus is on increasing high-quality technological supply and achieving breakthroughs in areas where other enterprises lack the capability or willingness to invest [4]. Group 3: Results Transformation - There is a strong emphasis on accelerating the transformation of technological achievements into practical applications, with initiatives to establish major pilot platforms and enhance procurement of first models and batches [5]. - The goal is to help more innovative results enter the market and create tangible productivity [5]. Group 4: Innovation Ecosystem - The article discusses the need to build a high-level innovation ecosystem by promoting deep integration of industry, academia, and research, and enhancing international cooperation [5]. Group 5: State-Owned Enterprise Reform - The article outlines the necessity for further reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to enhance their core functions and competitiveness, focusing on strategic security and public service [7]. - It highlights the importance of clarifying the functional positioning of various SOEs and concentrating capital in key industries related to national security and public welfare [7]. Group 6: Economic Layout Optimization - Central enterprises are encouraged to focus on upgrading traditional industries and nurturing emerging sectors, with an average annual investment growth rate of over 20% in new industries during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [10]. - The article stresses the need for a digital transformation of traditional industries and the integration of advanced technologies such as AI and big data [10]. Group 7: Future Industry Development - The article calls for targeted actions in key areas such as new energy, aerospace, and platform economy, while also planning for future technologies like quantum science and 6G [11]. Group 8: Investment and Financing System - There is a focus on building a professional and market-oriented investment and financing system to support the development of the real economy, utilizing various financial tools and establishing a comprehensive investment decision-making mechanism [12].

根据公开数据显示，2025年12月25日， 离岸人民币对美元汇率最高触及6.9985元 ，升破7元大关。此外在岸人民币兑美元升破7.01关口，最高 触及7.0061元。 相关专家表示近期人民币升值行情，是外部压力趋缓、内部韧性增强、政策精准调控与市场预期转向等多种因素共同作用的结果。本轮人民 币升值的直接推动力，来自美元环境的转变。市场预期，伴随美联储继续开展降息，将进一步压制美元长期走势，为人民币提供外部升值空 间。 人民币兑美元汇率中间价走势图表 来源：人民银行 来源丨根据公开信息整理 编辑丨兰银帆 审核丨许晨辉 往期回顾 在风格上 既可以是分析研判式的文稿,也可以是解读评论型的文稿, 既可以建言献策经济金融理论与实践,也可以归纳总结新经 济金融模式与案例。 在形式上 无需复杂的理论与计量模型,无需过多的图形与数据表格, 无需臃肿的注释与参考文献,一句话,我们不需要学术性的 论文,但我们希望您的观点、结论和判断建立在扎实的学术 基础和理论基础之上。 Review of Past Articles - 等你来投！《清华金融评论》2026年1月刊 "十五五"开局：长短协同 保持经济增长在合理区间 等你来投！《 ...

随着国家正式启动"十五五"规划的宏伟蓝图，可持续发展正从一项关键战略，升级为衡量未来经济高质量发展的重要标尺。在此承前启后的 关键时刻，2025年成为中国可持续发展进程从"理念构建"迈向"实践深化"的关键年份。 企业非财务信息披露正经历一场深刻的"范式迁移"。 国务院国资委、证监会及沪深北交易所密集出台《央企ESG专项行动指南(2025)》、《上市公司信息披露管理办法》、《上市公司自律监管指 引——可持续发展报告（试行）》等相关政策，明确要求将可持续发展纳入公司治理核心，推动信息披露从"可选披露"迈向"规范披露"。 在此新周期下，金融机构作为资源配置的核心，已从理念倡导者转变为关键行动者。银行、保险、资管等机构正将ESG深度融入其战略与业 务流程，通过大力发展绿色金融、创新可持续金融产品、践行负责任投资、强化环境风险管理等一系列努力，精准引导金融活水支持实体经 济绿色低碳转型。 为系统梳理并推广实践，《清华金融评论》正式启动"2025可持续发展典型案例征集"活动，旨在搭建一个高层次的实践交流平台，通过征 集、遴选并展示在绿色金融、社会责任及可持续发展治理等领域的优秀案例，树立行业标杆，促进经验共享，共同助力中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that a strong domestic market in China is not merely about scale expansion but rather an organic unity of quality, efficiency, resilience, and sustainability [2]. Group 1: Domestic Demand and Economic Transition - The recent Central Economic Work Conference highlighted "insisting on domestic demand as the main driver and building a strong domestic market" as the top priority for economic work in the coming year [2]. - From 2021 to 2024, domestic demand is expected to contribute an average of 86.4% to economic growth, with final consumption contributing 53.5% to economic growth in the first three quarters of 2025 [4]. - China possesses the world's largest middle-income group, a complete industrial system, and an upgrading consumption structure, indicating significant potential for domestic demand [4]. Group 2: Importance of Soft Infrastructure - Soft infrastructure, which includes a comprehensive system of rules and institutional arrangements, is crucial for establishing a strong domestic market [4][5]. - This infrastructure encompasses property rights, contract enforcement, market regulation, and dispute resolution, which are essential for reducing transaction costs and enhancing economic predictability [4]. Group 3: Long-term Supply-side Reforms - In addition to short-term demand management, long-term supply-side institutional reforms are necessary to create a stable, fair, transparent, and predictable business environment [5]. - Investment in "rule infrastructure," "credit infrastructure," and "legal infrastructure" is essential for activating the deep-seated dynamics of domestic demand [5]. Group 4: Fair Competition and Market Vitality - A vibrant domestic market relies on the innovation and fair competition of numerous market entities, which must be underpinned by universally recognized and strictly enforced fair rules [7]. - The protection of investor and consumer rights is critical for maintaining market confidence, particularly for small and medium investors [8]. Group 5: Legislative and Enforcement Efficiency - Enhancing the capacity and efficiency of legislation, judiciary, and law enforcement is vital for ensuring that market rules are effectively implemented [9]. - Legislative measures should be scientifically and forward-looking, particularly in response to new fields like digital economy and artificial intelligence [9]. Group 6: Building Trust and Market Order - Establishing a clear, efficient, and strict punitive mechanism for violations is essential for maintaining market order and trust [11]. - A comprehensive credit system that integrates information from various sectors is necessary to enhance governance effectiveness [11]. Group 7: International Standards and Digital Transformation - A strong domestic market should also be open and competitive internationally, requiring alignment with high international standards [14]. - Upgrading regulatory methods to incorporate digital technologies and real-time monitoring is crucial for adapting to the digital economy [14]. Group 8: Systematic Approach to Market Strengthening - Building a strong domestic market is a complex systemic project that requires both macroeconomic policy adjustments and micro-level institutional improvements [15]. - Continuous investment in soft infrastructure is essential for optimizing economic governance and stimulating innovation across society [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upgrade of the Beijing Inclusive Home Insurance product for 2026, emphasizing its comprehensive coverage and innovative features aimed at providing better protection for residents in Beijing [2][3]. Group 1: Product Features - The Beijing Inclusive Home Insurance, launched in 2025, adopts a "basic + optional" model, covering significant risks such as fire, floods, gas leaks, and electric bicycle fires, with a base premium of 128 yuan and a minimum coverage of 3.65 million yuan [3]. - The product introduces a new income loss insurance for new citizens, providing up to 10,000 yuan coverage for income loss due to accidents or hospitalization, and a carbon reduction insurance mechanism allowing policyholders to exchange 30 kg of carbon reduction for 300,000 yuan in accident insurance [3]. - The 2026 upgrade expands the product into three series, maintaining the 128 yuan premium while increasing coverage for multiple properties and raising the coverage for high-frequency risks like pipeline leaks by 60% [5]. Group 2: Service and Community Impact - Over its first year, the Beijing Inclusive Home Insurance has served over 300,000 households, providing risk coverage exceeding 1 trillion yuan and conducting over 16,000 risk reduction service activities [4]. - The insurance has played a crucial role during disasters, such as the "25·7" regional flood, by establishing a green claims channel, with the fastest claim processed in just 3 hours [4]. - The product also includes a new "Telecom Fraud Loss Coverage" option, addressing social governance issues and enhancing the overall protection offered [5]. Group 3: New Product Offerings - The 2026 upgrade introduces two specialized products: the "Cycling Version" for electric bicycles, with premiums ranging from 59 to 299 yuan, and the "Farmhouse Version," which offers coverage for housing structures and contents with a maximum risk coverage of 480,000 yuan [6]. - The "Cycling Version" includes benefits such as free helmet provision, aligning with local regulations on helmet use for electric bicycles [5][6]. - The integration of earthquake disaster insurance into the Beijing Inclusive Home Insurance platform aims to provide more accessible financial protection for urban and rural residents [6]. Group 4: Technological Integration - The launch includes a "Family Risk Reduction Smart Management System," which utilizes historical data for precise disaster identification and intervention, enhancing risk reduction services [6]. - The system aims to foster collaboration within the industry and provide data support for urban safety governance, including traffic optimization and property safety inspections [6]. Group 5: Availability - The 2026 series of the Beijing Inclusive Home Insurance is now open for enrollment, with detailed information available through the official WeChat account [7].

文/中央政策研究室副主任 唐方裕 调动全社会投身中国式现代化建设的积极性主动性创造性，是落实"十五 五"规划的关键。人民群众是历史的创造者，是实现社会变革的决定性力 量。我们党根基在人民、血脉在人民、力量在人民，只有坚持以人民为中 心，汇聚起人民群众的磅礴力量，才能把党的事业顺利推向前进。 党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》）61条中最后一条， 强调"充分调动全社会投身中国式现代化建设的积极性主动性创造性"，要求"按照本次全会精神，制定国家和地方'十五五'规划纲要及专项 规划等，形成定位准确、边界清晰、功能互补、统一衔接的国家规划体系"；"强化规划实施监测评估和监督，健全政策协调和工作协同机 制，确保党中央决策部署落到实处"；"贯彻尊重劳动、尊重知识、尊重人才、尊重创造的方针，激发全社会干事创业、创新创造活力，形成 人尽其才、才尽其用、万众一心、勠力进取的生动局面"。对这些要求，应当深刻理解、全面落实。 人民群众是历史的创造者，是实现社会变革的决定性力量。我们党根基在人民、血脉在人民、力量在人民，只有坚持以人民为中心，汇聚 起人民群众的磅礴力 ...