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抗疫医生李侗曾:我是怎么与“非典”、新冠交手的 | 我们的四分之一世纪
经济观察报· 2025-12-25 07:57
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the experiences of Dr. Li Dongzeng, who has dealt with various infectious diseases, including SARS and COVID-19, emphasizing the importance of transparency and scientific response in managing pandemics [2][5][26]. Group 1: Experiences During SARS and COVID-19 - Dr. Li faced the initial uncertainty during the SARS outbreak, where the transmissibility was underestimated, leading to a lack of public awareness about the severity of the disease [4][16]. - He recalls the overwhelming conditions in the SARS ward, with a high number of infections among healthcare workers, highlighting the challenges faced during the early days of the outbreak [7][10]. - The transition from SARS to COVID-19 saw Dr. Li applying lessons learned from previous outbreaks, including improved protective measures and the establishment of protocols to prevent infections among medical staff [10][25]. Group 2: Changes in Medical Response - The article notes significant advancements in medical equipment and protocols between the SARS and COVID-19 outbreaks, such as the use of disposable protective gear and the availability of more ventilators [24][25]. - Dr. Li emphasizes the need for a well-prepared public health workforce that can respond effectively to future outbreaks, rather than relying on emergency measures [26][27]. - The importance of timely and transparent communication from health authorities is highlighted as a critical factor in managing public perception and response during health crises [22][26]. Group 3: Public Health Education and Awareness - Dr. Li has been actively involved in public health education, using his platform to raise awareness about infectious diseases and their management [31][32]. - The article mentions a shift in public perception towards infectious diseases, with increased understanding and reduced stigma over the years [32]. - Dr. Li's teaching approach incorporates real-life clinical cases to educate medical students, reflecting the importance of practical knowledge in infectious disease management [32].
To B的智谱和To C的MiniMax,大模型生意都很难做
经济观察报· 2025-12-24 13:48
Core Viewpoint - The two companies, Zhipu and MiniMax, represent distinct commercialization paths in the AI large model sector, with Zhipu focusing on the B-end market and achieving a gross margin of 50%, while MiniMax targets the C-end market with over 70% of its revenue coming from overseas [2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - From 2022 to mid-2025, Zhipu accumulated revenue of 685 million yuan, with cumulative losses exceeding 6.2 billion yuan [4]. - MiniMax reported cumulative revenue of 86 million USD (approximately 600 million yuan) and cumulative losses of about 1.32 billion USD (approximately 9.3 billion yuan) from 2022 to September 2025 [5]. - Both companies operate at a revenue scale in the billion range, with MiniMax's revenue for the first nine months of 2025 being 53.4 million USD (approximately 376 million yuan) and Zhipu's revenue for the same period being 190 million yuan [6]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - Zhipu's B-end business primarily serves large domestic government and enterprise clients, while MiniMax's C-end business relies on overseas individual users [5][10]. - Zhipu's revenue from enterprise deployments has decreased from 95% to 85% over the past three years, indicating increased competition in the B-end market [8]. - MiniMax's average monthly active users reached 27.6 million, with 1.77 million paying users, but still lagging behind major internet companies [8][9]. Group 3: Investment and Costs - Both companies face significant capital requirements, with Zhipu and MiniMax's cumulative R&D investments being 4.4 billion yuan and 500 million USD (approximately 3.5 billion yuan), respectively [6]. - In the first half of 2025, Zhipu's computing power expenditure was 1.1 billion yuan, while MiniMax's was 140 million USD (approximately 987 million yuan) [7]. - The high costs associated with computing power present a challenge for both companies, as they need to balance low revenue with substantial operational expenses [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook and IPO Strategy - Both companies are vying for the title of the first AI large model stock, with the urgency to go public for financing and providing an exit for external shareholders [12]. - MiniMax has a more robust cash position, with cash reserves of 1.04 billion USD (approximately 733.4 million yuan) as of September 30, 2025, compared to Zhipu's 2.5 billion yuan [12]. - The cash burn rate for Zhipu increased to approximately 2.21 million yuan per month in the first half of 2025, indicating a growing financial strain [12].
写《我在北京送快递》的胡安焉,换了19份工作|我们的四分之一世纪
经济观察报· 2025-12-24 12:00
Core Viewpoint - The article narrates the life journey of Hu Anyan, who has changed 19 jobs over a span of 25 years, ultimately finding solace in writing, which he considers his last stable profession [1][3]. Group 1: Career Journey - Hu Anyan's career began in 1999 after graduating from a vocational school, where he faced the reality of self-employment due to the end of guaranteed job placements for graduates [7]. - His first job as a service staff in a hotel paid 600 yuan per month, which he viewed as a necessary step to obtain his diploma [7]. - He transitioned to various roles, including a store clerk and a position at a gas station, where he found a more suitable work environment with a salary of 1800 yuan per month [11][12]. - Hu Anyan's foray into the animation industry was driven by a passion for Japanese anime, leading him to work at a comic studio, but he left due to a competitive and harsh environment [12][19]. Group 2: Business Ventures - In 2007, Hu Anyan attempted to start a business in Vietnam but faced challenges and ultimately returned to China to open a women's clothing store in Nanning [18]. - The clothing business was highly competitive, leading to a stressful environment where he struggled to maintain ethical standards while competing [19]. - After two years of limited financial success and personal setbacks, he returned to Guangzhou, feeling disillusioned and seeking a new direction in life [19][20]. Group 3: Writing Career - Hu Anyan began writing in 2009 as a means to cope with his frustrations and to express his experiences, which he viewed as a noble pursuit [20]. - His writing gained traction with the publication of articles on platforms like Douban, leading to the release of his book "I Delivered Packages in Beijing," which garnered significant attention [24]. - He distinguishes himself from professional non-fiction writers, stating he only writes about his own experiences and does not possess the same journalistic skills [24]. - Despite the success of his writing, Hu Anyan remains grounded, acknowledging that if his articles had not gained popularity, he might still be working in a delivery job [25]. Group 4: Reflections on Society - Hu Anyan reflects on the societal changes over the past 25 years, noting a general improvement in social civility and customer interactions compared to his earlier work experiences [24]. - He emphasizes that while his writing often highlights negative experiences, these are memorable and impactful, shaping his narrative [25]. - Looking ahead, Hu Anyan is focused on writing fiction, believing it allows for a richer exploration of themes compared to non-fiction, which he views as more time-sensitive [26].
私募基金经理刘明达:在中国资本市场寻找“必然性”|我们的四分之一世纪
经济观察报· 2025-12-24 11:30
Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the journey of Liu Mingda, a pioneer in China's private equity sector, highlighting his investment philosophy and adaptation to market changes over 25 years, emphasizing the shift from consumer stocks to hard technology investments in response to evolving economic conditions [4][5][12]. Group 1: Historical Context and Early Investments - In 1996, the Chinese stock market was characterized by rampant speculation and insider trading, yet Liu Mingda distinguished himself by investing in technology stocks based on a simple belief in their future potential [7][8]. - His early investment in Shenzhen Development Technology Co. yielded significant returns during a time when average salaries were only a few hundred yuan [8]. - In 2005, during a market downturn, Liu made a pivotal decision to establish one of the first trust-based securities investment products in China, marking a shift towards a more regulated investment approach [10][11]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy and Strategies - Liu's investment strategy evolved to focus on "blue-chip" and "oligopoly" companies, betting on the concentration of resources and profits among leading firms as the Chinese economy matured [14][15]. - He identified Kweichow Moutai as a cornerstone of his portfolio, arguing that its cultural significance and social currency would ensure its continued demand despite market skepticism [15][16]. - Liu's approach emphasized the importance of stable, cash-rich companies with clear competitive advantages, even as he faced criticism for missing opportunities in emerging tech sectors [15][16]. Group 3: Shift to Hard Technology - In the new decade, Liu's investment focus shifted towards hard technology, driven by the belief that national security and technological self-sufficiency are paramount in the current geopolitical climate [19][20]. - He began investing in hard tech projects, acknowledging the risks involved but also the necessity of adapting to the changing landscape of investment opportunities [21][22]. - Liu expressed concerns about traditional internet giants and their sustainability, predicting that companies failing to innovate in disruptive technologies could face significant challenges [22]. Group 4: Philanthropy and Personal Philosophy - Liu's involvement in environmental philanthropy through the Alashan SEE Ecological Association reflects his desire for sustainable and transparent charitable initiatives, paralleling his investment principles [25][26]. - He believes that true wealth is measured not by monetary accumulation but by the freedom it provides, emphasizing a balanced approach to life and investment [28][29]. - Liu's philanthropic efforts serve as a counterbalance to the competitive nature of the financial markets, allowing him to contemplate the deeper meaning of wealth [29]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Advice - Liu acknowledges the challenges facing the economy and the difficulty for ordinary individuals to generate wealth, yet he remains optimistic about China's market resilience and technological advancements [31][32]. - He advises young investors to adopt a long-term perspective, warning against the pitfalls of seeking quick profits in a competitive market environment [32].
新希望刘畅:在命运的重壳里,活出自己的形状|我们的四分之一世纪
经济观察报· 2025-12-24 11:00
Core Viewpoint - The article explores the journey of Liu Chang, the daughter of Liu Yonghao, founder of New Hope Group, highlighting her personal growth, challenges in leadership, and the evolving landscape of the agricultural industry in China [3][4][5]. Group 1: Personal Journey and Leadership - Liu Chang took over as chairman of New Hope Liuhe at the age of 33, leading the company through economic cycles and achieving a scale of over 100 billion yuan [4][22]. - Despite external labels such as "successful second-generation successor," Liu Chang seeks to maintain her authentic self amidst societal expectations [5][21]. - The transition to leadership brought significant anxiety, particularly when dealing with large financial decisions, leading to physical symptoms of stress such as insomnia and premature graying [22][23]. Group 2: Company Growth and Challenges - New Hope Liuhe achieved a revenue milestone of over 100 billion yuan in 2020, but faced a significant net loss of 9.59 billion yuan in 2021 due to external pressures like the COVID-19 pandemic and African swine fever [22]. - The company is undergoing a transformation from a traditional agricultural business to a more integrated and technology-driven operation, focusing on enhancing profitability and operational efficiency [24][28]. - Liu Chang emphasizes the importance of adapting to industry changes and leveraging digitalization to improve management capabilities and reduce operational volatility [24][32]. Group 3: Future Vision and Personal Reflections - Liu Chang envisions a future where New Hope can thrive without her constant oversight, aiming for a more professional and institutional governance structure [35]. - She expresses a desire to explore simpler, fulfilling work, such as running a small fish ball noodle shop, reflecting her journey towards finding balance and contentment in life [36].
切走一半台积电,特朗普政府的愿望能否实现
经济观察报· 2025-12-24 10:24
Core Viewpoint - TSMC has deep roots in Taiwan, which provides a strong foundation for its operations, even as it expands overseas. The company is likely to overcome challenges faced in foreign markets as long as its core operations in Taiwan remain intact [1]. Group 1: TSMC's Operations and Strategy - TSMC has established itself as a leader in the semiconductor industry, with 17 wafer fabs and 5 advanced packaging plants, of which 12 wafer fabs are located in Taiwan [7]. - The U.S. government, under both Trump and Biden administrations, has shown interest in securing semiconductor supply chains, with Trump proposing to relocate half of TSMC's production to the U.S. [2][3]. - The cultural differences between Eastern and Western approaches to business are highlighted, with TSMC's success attributed to the disciplined and coordinated nature of Eastern culture, contrasting with the innovative focus of Western culture [5][6]. Group 2: U.S.-Taiwan Relations and Future Outlook - The U.S. aims to increase its chip self-sufficiency to 40%, suggesting a potential 50-50 production split between the U.S. and Taiwan [2]. - The likelihood of successfully relocating half of TSMC's operations to the U.S. is deemed almost zero due to the potential disruption to both Taiwanese and American operations [4][7]. - The future of TSMC is seen as pivotal in U.S.-China economic relations, especially in the context of potential reunification between Taiwan and China, which could position TSMC as a key player in cross-strait economic cooperation [9].
让“独身者遗产”处置多一份人情味
经济观察报· 2025-12-24 10:24
Core Viewpoint - The management of the estates of single individuals is not only about the correct application of the Civil Code but also reflects a societal commitment to treating every life with dignity and respect [2][4]. Group 1: Case Study of Jiang - Jiang, a 46-year-old woman from Shanghai, passed away suddenly without children or a spouse, leading to complications in managing her estate [2]. - The local civil affairs department indicated that Jiang's estate management would fall under their jurisdiction, ensuring timely and effective handling of her assets [2][3]. - Jiang's friend, Mr. Wu, who paid 30,000 yuan in medical expenses, can claim reimbursement from her estate [3]. Group 2: Responsibilities of Estate Management - The civil affairs department is responsible for creating an estate inventory, preventing asset loss, managing debts, and handling tax payments according to the Civil Code [2][3]. - Funeral expenses should be reasonable and within the remaining estate after settling debts and taxes, reflecting local economic conditions and customs [3][4]. - The department's actions align with the Civil Code, emphasizing that maintenance of burial sites typically falls outside the scope of funeral expenses [4]. Group 3: Public Benefit and Trust - If there are remaining assets after fulfilling obligations, the civil affairs department can file for a declaration of unclaimed property, allowing the estate to be used for public welfare, such as education and healthcare [4]. - Establishing a public trust for the maintenance of burial sites can be explored, ensuring that the deceased are honored even without personal connections [4].
长线思维下的文明演变及体制韧性
经济观察报· 2025-12-24 10:24
Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the need to awaken long-term awareness among voters and shareholders, integrating long-term elements into social contracts and performance evaluation systems for corporate leaders [2][3] - Long-termism focuses on historical scales of centuries or even millennia, addressing the evolution of civilization, resilience of national systems, and long-term prosperity [2][4] - The article advocates for promoting long-term thinking as a starting point to address significant challenges facing humanity today [2][5] Group 2 - The "Axial Age" concept introduced by philosopher Karl Jaspers highlights the independent development of four major civilizations, laying the foundation for human society [4] - The fusion of Greek and Hebrew civilizations, referred to as "Two希文明," played a crucial role in the Renaissance, religious reform, and the birth of modern thought and science [4][5] - The article discusses the liberation from "theocracy" and "monarchy" as pivotal moments that shaped modernity and modern civilization [7][10] Group 3 - The Renaissance marked the beginning of humanism, shifting societal focus from the divine to human-centered values, fostering individual freedom and dignity [7][8] - The Reformation initiated by Martin Luther challenged the Catholic Church, leading to the establishment of religious freedom and the principle of state sovereignty [8][11] - Enlightenment thinkers contributed to the development of modern values such as freedom, equality, and democracy, which became foundational to modern education and governance [11][12] Group 4 - The article highlights the importance of institutional resilience in navigating significant changes and challenges, using the United States, Japan, and Argentina as case studies [18][27] - The U.S. has demonstrated strong institutional resilience, successfully adapting to major changes since the Industrial Revolution, while Japan and Argentina faced significant economic challenges [20][25] - The concept of "institutional resilience" is proposed as a key factor in understanding national competitiveness and long-term growth [27][29] Group 5 - The article suggests that China's long-term policies since the reform and opening up in 1978 have contributed significantly to its economic achievements [29][30] - It emphasizes the need for China to continue leveraging long-term thinking to address global challenges and contribute to future developments [30]
三十载为民服务 北京银行金融赋能城市发展谱新篇
经济观察报· 2025-12-24 10:24
Core Viewpoint - Beijing Bank has integrated the principle of "people-centered" finance into its operations over the past 30 years, contributing to urban renewal and cultural heritage preservation while enhancing the quality of life for citizens [1][9]. Group 1: Urban Renewal and Cultural Heritage - The development of Beijing Bank over the past 30 years reflects a commitment to balancing cultural heritage preservation with modern urban needs, following the philosophy of "protecting while developing" [2]. - The renovation of the Longfu Temple area serves as a model for urban renewal, where Beijing Bank provided 1.1 billion yuan in syndicated loans to support the project, blending traditional architecture with modern commercial and cultural elements [5]. - The revitalization of Longfu Temple has transformed it into a popular destination for leisure and consumption, enhancing local employment and creating a harmonious coexistence of historical memory and modern life [5]. Group 2: Innovative Financial Solutions - Beijing Bank has introduced innovative financial products such as "cultural heritage credit loans," providing 10 million yuan in comprehensive credit to support the transformation of the Tai'anli cultural and arts center [8]. - The Tai'anli center, which opened in April 2023, exemplifies the concept of "heritage with credit," allowing visitors to engage with history in an immersive environment [8]. Group 3: Commitment to Public Welfare - Over the past three decades, Beijing Bank has actively participated in the systematic protection and innovative transformation of Beijing's cultural heritage, enhancing the sense of gain and happiness among the populace [9]. - The bank's efforts in supporting cultural consumption, small business development, and community infrastructure have solidified its role in promoting public welfare [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, Beijing Bank aims to continue its commitment to "people-centered" finance, contributing to national strategies and improving the well-being of citizens while pursuing high-quality development [10].
464元一针,国产带状疱疹疫苗三折卖
经济观察报· 2025-12-24 09:50
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant challenges faced by Baike Biotech regarding its herpes zoster vaccine, including price reductions, inventory pressures, and substantial returns impacting revenue [2][3]. Group 1: Sales and Revenue Impact - Baike Biotech's herpes zoster vaccine price was reduced from 1375 yuan per dose to 464 yuan, approximately one-third of the previous price [2]. - The company's Q3 2025 revenue was reported at 190 million yuan, a 53.5% year-on-year decline, primarily due to returns of the herpes zoster vaccine and reduced income from price cuts [2]. - The company disclosed that returns of the herpes zoster vaccine led to a revenue reduction of 230 million yuan, with an estimated additional 97.46 million yuan in returns expected due to unsold near-expiry inventory [3]. Group 2: Market Context and Competition - The herpes zoster vaccine is crucial for Baike Biotech, with the disease being prevalent among individuals over 50 years old, and vaccination is an effective preventive measure [3]. - There are currently two herpes zoster vaccines available in China: Baike Biotech's live attenuated vaccine and a recombinant vaccine developed by GlaxoSmithKline and marketed by Zhifei Biological [3]. - Price competition has intensified, with imported vaccines seeing significant price drops due to lower-than-expected sales, and domestic vaccines also experiencing substantial price reductions in various regions [3]. Group 3: Stock Performance - As of December 24, Baike Biotech's stock price was reported at 19.19 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 7.938 billion yuan [4].