经济观察报
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创新药经不起大起大落
经济观察报· 2025-06-23 11:11
Core Viewpoint - The current state of the innovative drug market is uncertain, with investors questioning whether the recent downturn is a temporary fluctuation or a sign of a prolonged decline. The hope is for a gradual upward trend in the market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The innovative drug sector in China has only been active in the secondary market for seven years, experiencing significant volatility that typically takes decades in other industries. From 2020 to 2021, the sector saw explosive growth, with many companies doubling their stock prices, but this was followed by a sharp decline, reaching historical lows by July 2024, with most companies trading below their initial offering prices [3][4]. - The recent recovery in the Hong Kong stock market for innovative drugs began in early 2025, spurred by significant business development (BD) transactions involving companies like 3SBio and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, leading to a bullish sentiment in the A-share market [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Despite the recent market recovery, caution is warranted as the previous surge taught investors that only a small fraction of the thousands of drug pipelines are securing large deals, raising concerns about market viability for many others [5][6]. - The innovative drug industry in China is recognized for its potential, even if much of its current innovation is in the form of fast-follow strategies. Recent record-breaking BD transactions and the emergence of the first domestic "billion-dollar molecule" demonstrate that Chinese innovation can gain international recognition [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The development of innovative drugs is a long-term endeavor, typically requiring an average of ten years and one billion dollars to bring a new drug to market. The industry is still in its growth phase, and the next decade is expected to see a more rational valuation from the capital market, with a call for patience and longer growth cycles [6][7]. - A stable policy environment is crucial for fostering a "slow bull" market in the innovative drug sector. Recent initiatives from the National Healthcare Security Administration to explore new payment models for innovative drugs and the reduction of clinical trial review times are seen as positive steps [7][8]. - A collaborative approach among companies, investors, and regulators, emphasizing long-termism, is essential for the emergence of more internationally competitive innovative drugs. A focus on steady progress rather than rapid growth is advocated to ensure sustainable development [8].
美国钻地弹炸开了战争之门,还是炸开了谈判大门?
经济观察报· 2025-06-23 11:11
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent U.S. military action against Iran's nuclear facilities and its implications for potential conflict or negotiation between the two nations [1][7][10]. Summary by Sections U.S. Military Action - On June 22, U.S. President Trump ordered a surprise bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, utilizing over 125 aircraft and a submarine, resulting in the destruction of three nuclear sites [2][3]. - The operation was named "Midnight Hammer" and involved the deployment of 14 Gbu-57 bombs and 24 cruise missiles [2]. International Reactions - The U.S. action was met with global condemnation, including a strong denunciation from China, which highlighted violations of international law and the potential for nuclear disaster [4][5][6]. Potential Consequences - The article posits that the key indicator of future relations will be whether Iran retaliates against U.S. military bases in the region [7][8]. - Iran's Revolutionary Guard has threatened severe retaliation, labeling U.S. personnel in the region as legitimate targets [8]. Iran's Possible Responses - Iran has two potential responses: a limited, symbolic retaliation or a decision to refrain from further conflict [12][14]. - The article suggests that Iran may choose to avoid escalation, as indicated by their communication to the International Atomic Energy Agency that radiation levels remained stable post-attack [15][16]. Future Negotiations - Despite the military action, the article concludes that the door for negotiations regarding the Iran nuclear issue has not yet opened, primarily due to ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran [17][18].
二代接班,企一代不放心
经济观察报· 2025-06-23 11:11
Core Viewpoint - The transition of management rights from the first generation to the second generation in Chinese family businesses is fraught with emotional complexities and challenges, as the first generation is often hesitant to fully hand over control despite their desire for their children to succeed [1][6][8]. Group 1: Transition Challenges - The management transition process is intertwined with various emotions and conflicts, including the first generation's worries and distrust, the second generation's internal struggles, and conflicts with the existing management team [3][4]. - Many first-generation entrepreneurs express concerns about their children's management capabilities, despite recognizing their digital skills [6][7]. - The second generation often faces challenges in aligning their modern management philosophies with the traditional views of the existing management team, leading to potential conflicts [7][10]. Group 2: The Role of External Managers - A significant trend in family businesses globally is the appointment of external professional managers, especially from the third generation onward, to ensure effective management and avoid potential pitfalls of relying solely on family members [9][10]. - The introduction of external managers is seen as a necessary step for family businesses to adapt to modern management practices and maintain long-term prosperity [10][11]. - Many first-generation entrepreneurs express a lack of confidence in the success of external managers, often feeling compelled to intervene in management decisions even after stepping back [11][12]. Group 3: Recommendations for Succession - To ensure the long-term stability of family businesses, it is crucial to establish clear governance structures and differentiate the roles of management and the board [14][18]. - The focus should be on the potential of the second generation rather than solely on their existing experience, emphasizing the importance of leadership development and providing opportunities for growth [16][17]. - Family businesses should consider allowing the second generation to gain experience in different roles or external companies to broaden their perspectives and enhance their leadership capabilities [17][18].
看剑南春如何让千年技艺"酿"出时代新味
经济观察报· 2025-06-22 12:40
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant developments and cultural initiatives of Jian Nan Chun, a leading company in the Chinese liquor industry, particularly during the 2025 Sichuan International Wine Expo and the "Hua Xia Aesthetics" conference, showcasing its commitment to innovation and tradition in liquor production [2][11]. Group 1: Company Developments - Jian Nan Chun's new phase of the Da Tang National Liquor Ecological Park has been inaugurated, which will add 30,000 to 50,000 tons of high-quality liquor production capacity, marking a key step in the company's high-quality development [2][6]. - The total investment for the Da Tang National Liquor Ecological Park phase II project is 1.667 billion yuan, expected to boost annual industrial output value by over 10 billion yuan [6]. - The company has established a full lifecycle traceability platform covering quality control, production management, logistics, and marketing, enhancing product quality and production efficiency through data integration [10]. Group 2: Cultural and Historical Significance - Jian Nan Chun's history dates back 1,500 years, with its origins as the imperial liquor of the Tang Dynasty, which adds a prestigious quality to its brand [13]. - The company has developed a complete product matrix to meet diverse consumer needs, including collaborations with cultural institutions to enhance brand value through cultural products [13][14]. - The establishment of the Tian Yi Lao Hao Museum in Jian Nan Old Street showcases the rich history of Chinese liquor, integrating cultural heritage with modern branding efforts [17][18]. Group 3: Industry Context - The Deyang region, where Jian Nan Chun is located, has been recognized as a "Chinese Famous Wine City" and is experiencing significant growth, with a projected output value of over 30 billion yuan for the local liquor industry by 2024 [19][20]. - The region's favorable natural conditions, including its location in the golden liquor-making belt, contribute to its reputation and production capabilities, with a 31.2% year-on-year increase in liquor production [19][20]. - Experts suggest that Deyang should leverage its brand advantages to enhance regional development and expand into international markets [20].
多地汽车“国补”暂停,都是价格战惹的祸?
经济观察报· 2025-06-22 02:41
Core Viewpoint - The suspension of the "old-for-new" subsidy for cars in various regions is primarily due to a mismatch between the demand for subsidies and the phased funding mechanism, despite strong demand for vehicle replacements. The marginal effectiveness of the policy is diminishing due to factors such as price wars in the automotive market [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Suspension of Subsidies - From mid-May to June 15, multiple regions across the country announced the suspension of applications for the "old-for-new" subsidy due to exhausted funds [2]. - Regions such as Zhengzhou, Luoyang, and others have reported that the suspension is due to the "subsidy funds being used up" [2][8]. Market Reaction - The suspension of the "old-for-new" subsidy has caused unrest in the automotive market, with dealers using the news to encourage consumers to make purchases quickly [3]. - The actual impact of the subsidy policy is more favorable for low-end models, as consumer purchasing power declines and price wars intensify, leading to a decrease in the policy's stimulating effect [4]. Sales Data and Trends - From January to May, automotive sales increased by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, significantly aided by the "old-for-new" policy. However, the suspension of subsidies and ongoing price wars have led to increased consumer hesitation [5][17]. - The overall retail sales of automobiles remained stagnant, with a total automotive consumption value of 1,884.7 billion yuan, showing zero growth year-on-year [17]. Funding Mechanism - The "old-for-new" subsidy is part of a larger funding pool of 3 trillion yuan for various consumer goods, with the distribution of funds being a challenge due to the mismatch between local demand and the phased release of funds [11][12]. - As of June 18, the central government has allocated 1,620 billion yuan of the planned 3 trillion yuan, with the remaining funds to be distributed in the latter half of the year [6][11]. Future Implications - The marginal effectiveness of the "old-for-new" policy is expected to continue diminishing, with consumers adopting a wait-and-see attitude due to aggressive price cuts in the market [16]. - The automotive market is facing pressure for growth, with expectations for more robust policies to stimulate demand, such as tax reductions and incentives for purchasing vehicles [16][18].
跨国公司新意思|特别报道
经济观察报· 2025-06-22 02:41
Core Viewpoint - The continuous improvement of China's high-level opening policies and business environment has created stable expectations for economic development, making it highly attractive for foreign investment [10][25]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Many foreign companies are increasing their R&D investments in China, integrating into the country's innovation system [3][15]. - In 2024, actual foreign investment in the medical equipment and instruments manufacturing industry, professional technical services, and computer and office equipment manufacturing grew by 98.7%, 40.8%, and 21.9% respectively [8]. - The proportion of foreign investment in high-tech industries in Shandong reached 46.5% in 2024, indicating a shift towards high-tech sectors such as pharmaceuticals and aerospace [22]. Group 2: Shandong's Investment Environment - Shandong has attracted significant foreign investment in emerging industries like high-end manufacturing and biomedicine, with 236 Fortune 500 companies investing a total of $105.9 billion [9][22]. - The provincial government has implemented policies to enhance the business environment, including the "Service Guarantee for Foreign Enterprises" initiative [25]. - Companies like AstraZeneca have invested heavily in Shandong, with a total investment of $750 million in their inhalation aerosol production base [18]. Group 3: R&D and Innovation - From 2013 to 2023, the number of R&D personnel in foreign-funded industrial enterprises in China increased from 629,000 to 838,000, a growth of 33.2% [15]. - The effective invention patents of foreign-funded industrial enterprises rose from 75,000 to 327,000, a 336% increase, indicating a significant enhancement in innovation output [16]. - Companies are increasingly localizing their R&D efforts, with some achieving up to 100% local R&D capability for certain products [14]. Group 4: Future Opportunities - Foreign companies are focusing on sectors such as healthcare, environmental protection, and sustainable development, reflecting a shift in investment priorities [9][19]. - The ongoing push for dual carbon goals and sustainable development strategies in China is influencing foreign companies' product development and market strategies [22][25]. - The rapid growth of the hydrogen fuel cell market in China is seen as a significant opportunity for foreign companies to explore [22].
公募业绩基准调整潮起
经济观察报· 2025-06-22 02:41
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent wave of adjustments to performance benchmarks by fund companies in response to new regulatory guidelines, emphasizing the need for scientific setting of benchmarks and understanding their impact on fund operations [1][3][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes and Industry Response - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released the "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Public Funds," which highlights the importance of performance benchmarks [3]. - As of June 19, 134 funds have adjusted their performance benchmarks this year, an increase of approximately 80% compared to the same period last year [4][6]. - Fund companies have begun to proactively review and adjust their benchmarks to align with investment styles, especially following the release of the new guidelines [4][11]. Group 2: Characteristics of Adjusted Funds - A significant number of the adjusted funds are actively managed equity funds, with 55 out of the 134 being such funds [7]. - Some fixed-income products have also adjusted their benchmarks to better match their bond asset allocations [7][8]. - Fund of funds (FOF) have frequently adjusted their benchmarks, reflecting new asset allocation needs, with 44 of the adjusted products being mixed FOFs [8][9]. Group 3: Importance of Performance Benchmarks - The article highlights that many investors do not adequately consider performance benchmarks when selecting funds, often focusing more on absolute returns [15][16]. - There is a general lack of understanding among investors regarding the significance of performance benchmarks, which can lead to misalignment with investment strategies [17][18]. - The article suggests that performance benchmarks serve as a critical tool for managing investor suitability and understanding risk-return characteristics [18][19]. Group 4: Recommendations for Future Benchmarking - The industry suggests enhancing the diversity of performance benchmarks by including thematic indices and style factor indices [18]. - Establishing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for benchmarks is recommended to ensure they reflect significant market changes or strategy adjustments [18]. - Fund companies are encouraged to strengthen internal research to select the most appropriate benchmarks and continuously evaluate their effectiveness [20].
永辉退 盒马进
经济观察报· 2025-06-21 08:46
5月9日,宿州吾悦广场迎来皖北地区首家盒马鲜生,该店同样由8个月前关闭的永辉超市改造而 来。 此类盒马与永辉的"交接"并非个例。经济观察报根据公开信息整理发现,在宿州吾悦广场、镇江吾 悦广场、张家港万达广场、珠海万象汇(原优特汇)、合肥天鹅湖万达广场等商场,盒马均在永辉 撤场后迅速入驻,间隔时间短则三个多月,长则九个多月。 多家商场坦言,盒马和永辉的更迭在于商场对坪效优化与品牌升级的迫切需求。 多家商场坦言,盒马和永辉的更迭在于商场对坪效优化与品牌 升级的迫切需求。 作者: 郑明珠 封图:图虫创意 6月28日,浙江慈溪的消费者即将在环创爱琴海商场迎来一家全新的盒马鲜生。值得注意的是,这 家盒马鲜生的"前身"是永辉超市。2018年9月,商场开业时永辉超市便进驻到了这里。 该商场相关负责人向经济观察报介绍,其2025年的目标销售额较2024年新增约20%至30%,引进 盒马鲜生是实现这一目标的关键动作。 同一位置,不同超市品牌的更迭,折射的是中国零售行业的结构性变化。 上述另一家商场的招商部负责人介绍,引进盒马NB(Neighbour Business,即 "社邻商业")的一 部分原因是当前市场竞争压力大,商场有 ...
长安升格深蓝开路,技术开源展现央企担当
经济观察报· 2025-06-21 08:03
Core Viewpoint - Deep Blue Automotive, as a spearhead for Changan Automobile's market expansion, has achieved remarkable sales of 480,000 units within three years, showcasing a high-quality model for the evolution of Chinese new energy brands [1][2][13] Group 1: Market Position and Strategy - Deep Blue Automotive has become a leading brand in the central enterprise new energy vehicle sales rankings, driven by the "Shangri-La Plan" under Changan's "New Automobile New Ecology" strategy [2][12] - The company aims to achieve global sales of 2 million units by 2030, with a target of 35% of sales coming from overseas markets, and plans to launch 30 new models [2][7] Group 2: Technological Innovation - Deep Blue Automotive's success is attributed to its technological advancements, including the Super Range Extender technology, which allows for 1 liter of fuel to generate 3.63 kWh of electricity [3][4] - The company holds 112 patents related to electric vehicle battery safety and has received national awards for its innovations, addressing challenges in cold weather usage [4][6] Group 3: Future Development Plans - The "Smart Leading 2030" strategy will focus on enhancing core competitiveness through comprehensive development in technology, products, and services [7][12] - Deep Blue Automotive plans to invest at least 10% of its annual revenue in R&D, with a total investment exceeding 100 billion yuan before 2030 [7] Group 4: Product and Service Expansion - The company will establish a product matrix consisting of 30 new models across various categories, including sedans, SUVs, and rugged vehicles [10] - Plans include the establishment of over 2,500 order centers, 1,000 delivery centers, and 2,800 overseas outlets to enhance customer service [11]
人民币国际化步入深水区
经济观察报· 2025-06-21 08:03
有分析认为,这一系列举措旨在构建"数字人民币+离岸金 融"双轨体系,有的放矢地参与全球货币秩序重构,并建立具 有主动防御力的制度架构。同时,通过优化跨境投融资机制、 拓展人民币定价能力、设立数字人民币国际运营中心等方式, 全面增强上海国际金融中心的制度型功能。这或标志着人民币 国际化的路径,正步入"深水机制建设"的关键阶段。 作者: 欧阳晓红 封图:图虫创意 导读 壹 || 上海国际金融中心的角色,正从"集散地"转向"连接器",从机构聚集走向要素流通枢 纽。这不仅是平台功能的升级,更是机制层面的系统性演进。 贰 || "八项举措"不仅是金融开放的政策清单,更是构建人民币资产生态闭环的制度化路径, 是实现"人民币走出去"质变的核心制度支点。 叁 || 在"制度平台+场景创新"的双轮驱动下,人民币将不仅是一个"交易货币",更将走向"定 价货币""储备货币"的跃升通道。 当全球货币体系变革的窗口开启,美元稳定币在"链上"扩容,搭建跨境金融的隐性网络,而中国则 选择了制度与技术并重的突围之路。 6月18日,中国人民银行行长潘功胜在2025年陆家嘴论坛上宣布,将在上海实施八项金融开放举措 (下称"八项举措")。 中国人 ...