赖清德及其执政团队在面临2028年大选的时候，真有可能 向"台独"这个方向暴冲。果真走到这一步，赖清德和他的支持 者就真的没有回头路了，必须一路撞过去，直到撞上"台独"这 堵南墙。 作者：王义伟 封图：本报资料库 6月20日，台湾选务部门公布了第一批次的罢免名单及相关安排，24名国民党籍的"立委"以及民众 党籍的新竹市长高虹安上榜，投票日定在7月26日。 两天后，赖清德开启他的"台独"十讲。他的头两次演讲，聚焦两岸关系，聚焦"台独"。不出意外的 话，在接下来的演讲中，他会把国民党描绘为卖台集团，是所谓的"中共同路人"，因此，国民党籍 的"立委"必须被罢免。10次演讲下来，赖清德至少可以达到凝聚绿营支持者人气的目的，让更多 的绿营支持者在投票日当天出来投票，提高罢免成功率。 这一招是管用的。另外，台湾选务方面的相关规定是有缺陷的，只要相对多数就可以罢免民意代 表。由是观之，7月26日的罢免投票，国民党方面压力很大。 更严峻的是，对于罢免的宣传造势，同时也是对于罢免成功之后补选的宣传造势，国民党现阶段已 经处于被动挨打的地位，等到某些选区真的罢免成功并启动补选，国民党的劣势将会更加明显。 假如，国民党在罢免和补选 ...

Core Viewpoint - Proximity to customers is essential for high-tech companies to enter user scenarios, serving as both the starting and ending point of enterprise services. Leveraging new technologies like AI to create new usage scenarios will form digital assets and technology brands, becoming a new competitive advantage and window of opportunity for enterprises [1][22]. Group 1: Company Strategies - Zhongshan Jinlibao New Materials Co., Ltd. (Jinlibao), a leading company in the adhesive industry, is facing price competition from imitators and is withdrawing from some technically advantageous markets. In 2024, Jinlibao plans to re-evaluate its customer base and focus on providing services to top-tier clients [2]. - Jinlibao's clients include world-renowned companies in the mobile and computer sectors, allowing for targeted product development based on a deep understanding of customer needs, which enhances customer loyalty and reduces procurement costs [2]. - Guangzhou Aozimei Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (Aozimei), a typical B2C company, has over 1 million direct users and emphasizes proximity to customers as fundamental for survival and growth [2]. Group 2: Online and Offline Integration - Aozimei faced significant profit declines due to online low-price sales impacting its offline stores, leading to a reduction from over 5,000 stores to around 2,000. After a year of adjustments, Aozimei stabilized its operations through an online-offline integration model [4]. - The company utilizes platforms like Meituan and Douyin for live streaming sales, offering coupons to attract customers to offline purchases. This strategy, while not profitable online, effectively drives sales of other products [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Innovations - The Chinese beauty and cosmetics market has evolved from imitation to repositioning, with local brands gaining competitiveness through technology and research, particularly by incorporating traditional Chinese beauty elements [5]. - Aozimei's brand, Huibao, focuses on aloe vera-based skincare products, leveraging the historical medicinal value of aloe vera for skin treatment and care [5][6]. - The beauty device market is witnessing a trend towards high-end and professional products, with electronic technology driving the development of home beauty devices that approach or exceed traditional medical beauty treatments [13]. Group 4: Technological Integration - The integration of electronic technology into the beauty industry is reshaping consumer experiences and value systems, with innovations such as multifunctional beauty devices and digital transformation of business models [11][12]. - AI is seen as a potential enabler for the beauty industry, although challenges remain in understanding business scenarios. Aozimei is exploring AI applications to enhance product development and market strategies [16][18]. - The future of the beauty industry will rely on maintaining customer loyalty, regardless of technological changes or market developments [21].

Core Viewpoint - The revision of the Public Security Administration Punishment Law reflects a shift in stance regarding the detention of minors, emphasizing that while minors deserve care and protection, such care has its limits, necessitating appropriate punishment for wrongdoing as a form of special education and protection [1][6]. Summary by Sections Legal Changes - The latest revision of the Public Security Administration Punishment Law introduces conditional execution of detention for minors aged 14-18 who commit serious violations, replacing the previous rule of non-execution based solely on age [2][3]. - Under the new regulations, minors aged 14-16 and 16-18 who commit serious offenses or repeatedly violate the law within a year may face actual detention, addressing the inadequacies of the previous law that allowed for evasion of punishment [2][3]. Social Context - The revision is a proactive response to the changing landscape of juvenile delinquency, acknowledging that the previous leniency may have inadvertently encouraged repeated offenses among minors who exploited the law's provisions [3][4]. - The law's previous approach, which emphasized rehabilitation, is now complemented by a more nuanced case-by-case handling of offenses, balancing the need for punishment with the potential for reform [4][5]. Implementation Considerations - To prevent arbitrary application of detention provisions, measures such as legal interpretations, guidelines, and the involvement of guardians during legal proceedings are recommended to ensure fair treatment of minors [5]. - The law emphasizes the importance of procedural rights for minors, including the right to a hearing before detention is imposed, reflecting a commitment to safeguarding their legal rights [5]. Alignment with International Standards - The changes in the Public Security Administration Punishment Law align with the United Nations' standards for juvenile justice, promoting the idea that minors should be supported in leading meaningful lives while being held accountable for their actions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of Confucianism and traditional Chinese culture as foundational elements for understanding contemporary society and global interactions, advocating for cultural exchange and mutual respect among civilizations [1][6][22]. Group 1: Forum and Cultural Exchange - The 11th Nishan World Civilization Forum will be held on July 9-10, focusing on the theme "Each Beauty is Beautiful, Beauty is Shared - The Relationship Between Civilizations and Global Modernization" [2]. - Yang Chaoming highlights the forum as a platform for civilizations to engage in dialogue, learn from each other, and address global challenges collaboratively [5][8]. Group 2: Significance of Confucianism - Yang asserts that understanding Confucianism requires recognizing its deep historical roots, which are essential for appreciating the value of Chinese culture today [12]. - The core ideas of "Ren" (benevolence) and "Li" (ritual) in Confucianism are crucial for shaping character and social responsibility among the youth [13][25]. Group 3: Modern Application of Traditional Culture - Confucian principles can guide modern enterprises in balancing economic benefits with social responsibilities, promoting sustainable development [16]. - The integration of traditional culture into education and cultural activities is essential for fostering interest and understanding among the younger generation [15][19]. Group 4: Global Cultural Interaction - China uses the values of "trust" and "learning" from traditional culture to foster international cooperation and understanding among different civilizations [22]. - The approach includes translating classical texts collaboratively to enhance mutual understanding and respect between cultures [23]. Group 5: Contemporary Relevance of Confucianism - Confucianism emphasizes the importance of moral integrity and social responsibility, which are increasingly relevant in today's society [26][28]. - The principles of "learning for application" and "harmony" are reinterpreted to address modern challenges, promoting a dynamic relationship between knowledge and societal needs [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the requirement to pay personal income tax at a rate of 3% on personal pension withdrawals is not new, as it was established in a previous announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration in December 2024 [1][5]. Summary by Sections Personal Pension Taxation Policy - According to the announcement, personal pensions are taxed separately at a rate of 3% upon withdrawal, without distinguishing between principal and investment income [2][5]. - The taxation of personal pensions is designed to encourage individual savings for retirement, reflecting a policy direction that supports lower tax rates for pension withdrawals [5][6]. Implementation Timeline - The personal pension system was initially implemented in 36 cities in November 2022, and it was fully rolled out nationwide starting December 15, 2024 [6]. - The announcement also specifies that from January 1, 2024, contributions to personal pension accounts can be deducted from taxable income up to a limit of 12,000 yuan per year, and investment income in these accounts is not subject to personal income tax [6]. Taxation Framework - The personal pension system is characterized as a tax-deferred pension scheme, where contributions are deducted from the tax base at the time of payment, and taxes are levied upon withdrawal [5][6]. - The 3% tax rate on withdrawals is lower than the marginal tax rates for most wage earners, resulting in a lighter tax burden and balancing tax incentives with tax obligations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The increasing supply of RMB in overseas markets is expected to boost the enthusiasm of foreign enterprises for RMB trade financing, driven by lower financing costs compared to USD and relatively stable RMB exchange rates [1][14][15]. Group 1: RMB in Trade Financing - The RMB's attractiveness for trade financing is growing due to significantly lower financing rates compared to USD, reducing costs for foreign enterprises [1][15]. - The RMB's stable exchange rate reduces concerns about exchange rate risks for overseas enterprises engaged in trade financing [1][15]. - The demand for RMB in cross-border investment is increasing as more Chinese enterprises invest overseas and prefer to use RMB for ODI (Overseas Direct Investment) [4][6]. Group 2: Global Trends in RMB Usage - As of the end of 2024, RMB is projected to become the third-largest trade financing currency globally, with cross-border payment amounts reaching 64.1 trillion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase [8]. - Over 80 foreign central banks have included RMB in their foreign exchange reserves, reflecting a trend towards diversifying reserve assets away from USD [9][17]. - The share of RMB in global foreign exchange reserves is currently below 3%, indicating significant potential for growth [18]. Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The increasing use of RMB by foreign enterprises presents new challenges in meeting diverse needs for RMB settlement, investment, and reserve management [19]. - Enhancing RMB liquidity in overseas markets is crucial for encouraging foreign institutions to hold RMB assets [20][21]. - Recent policy measures, such as allowing foreign investors to use Chinese government bonds as collateral for RMB repurchase agreements, aim to improve the liquidity and attractiveness of RMB assets [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the lessons learned from the 2008 financial crisis and other macroeconomic crises over the past three decades, emphasizing the interconnectedness of financial markets and the real economy, as well as the mechanisms that lead to financial crises [2][3]. Mechanisms of Crisis Formation - The 2008 crisis was primarily triggered by subprime mortgages linked to the real estate market, a pattern observed in various financial crises throughout history, including the Southeast Asian financial crisis [5]. - Real estate booms often result from capital inflows, as real estate is a favored collateral for financial institutions due to its stable value, leading to a misallocation of funds away from productive sectors like manufacturing [5]. - The definition and identification of bubbles are debated, but they are characterized by irrational investor behavior and speculative price increases, which can persist for extended periods based on collective beliefs [6]. - Financial crises manifest as bank runs or "runs" on shadow banking institutions, where liquidity issues can escalate into solvency crises, particularly when banks rely on short-term wholesale funding [7][9]. - The relationship between banks and sovereign debt is crucial, as systemic banking crises can lead to sovereign debt crises, creating a vicious cycle that exacerbates economic instability [10]. Policy Responses - Central banks play a critical role in responding to macroeconomic crises by providing liquidity and distinguishing between liquidity shortages and solvency issues, which can prevent systemic crises [12][13]. - The use of unconventional monetary policies, such as quantitative easing and interest on reserves, has become standard practice to stimulate the economy during crises [13]. - Fiscal policies, including running deficits and increasing public spending, are recommended to counteract the effects of reduced private sector consumption during crises [14]. - Emerging economies are advised against devaluing their currencies as a means to stimulate exports, as this can worsen the financial health of institutions with foreign currency liabilities [15]. - Innovative fiscal measures, such as automatic triggers for subsidy disbursement based on early recession indicators, and proposals to shift monetary policy targets to nominal GDP, are being discussed as potential future tools for crisis management [16].

Core Viewpoint - The enthusiasm for perovskite technology among companies stems from the realization that investments in crystalline silicon are often unprofitable, while the photovoltaic market presents significant opportunities, making perovskite the "only choice" [1][4]. Industry Trends - In the past three years, major photovoltaic companies and energy firms have entered the perovskite sector, with expectations for mass production to begin in 2025 [7]. - Companies like GCL-Poly and several startups are building gigawatt-level production lines, indicating a strong commitment to perovskite technology [3][8][9]. - Leading crystalline silicon manufacturers, including LONGi Green Energy and Trina Solar, have also invested in perovskite-silicon tandem cell research, with some already establishing hundred-megawatt production lines [10]. Market Space - Many domestic perovskite companies are targeting applications in areas like streetlights and carports, aiming to penetrate markets that crystalline silicon cannot easily cover [14]. - GCL-Poly has opted to replace crystalline silicon components directly in photovoltaic power plants, indicating a strategic focus on larger-scale applications [15]. - The efficiency of perovskite-silicon tandem cells is projected to reach up to 43%, significantly higher than current crystalline silicon efficiencies, which have not surpassed 26% [18][10]. Technological Complexity - Perovskite technology is considered more complex than crystalline silicon, which may delay the onset of competitive "involution" seen in the crystalline silicon market [5][24]. - The production of perovskite involves significant material innovations, requiring flexible manufacturing capabilities to adapt to new formulations [25][26]. - The transition from single-junction to tandem cells is crucial, as tandem cells can achieve higher efficiencies, but they also present additional technical challenges [28][29]. Future Outlook - The perovskite sector is expected to evolve significantly over the next decade, with the potential for substantial growth and innovation, unlike the stagnation seen in the crystalline silicon market [31].

Core Viewpoint - The efficiency revolution driven by AI is a long-term battle requiring continuous investment and innovation, with companies needing to explore maximizing technology utilization within limited resources while seeking deep integration with business needs [1] Group 1: AI Commercialization and Challenges - The concept of AI was formally introduced in 1956, but its commercialization progressed slowly due to limitations in computing power and data scale until breakthroughs in deep learning and the advent of big data in the 21st century [2] - The commercialization of AI faces multiple challenges, including technological, commercial, and social ethical dilemmas [3] - Early AI applications were concentrated in specific verticals, enhancing industry efficiency through automation and data-driven techniques [5] Group 2: Investment Trends and Market Dynamics - The efficiency revolution has led to a surge in capital market financing, with significant investments such as Databricks raising $10 billion and OpenAI achieving a valuation of $157 billion after a $6.6 billion funding round [8] - In the domestic AIGC sector, there were 84 financing events in Q3 2024, with disclosed amounts totaling 10.54 billion yuan, averaging 26 million yuan per deal [8] Group 3: Industry Ecosystem and Fragmentation - The fragmented nature of application scenarios poses a challenge for AI technology to transition from laboratory to large-scale implementation [9] - Variations in manufacturing conditions can lead to model failures, increasing development costs, but advancements in AI capabilities are gradually addressing these challenges [10] - The lack of unified industry standards and data silos further complicates the situation, necessitating the establishment of an open technical ecosystem and data sharing [10] Group 4: Resource Concentration and Market Effects - The release of ChatGPT has led to a significant number of AI-related companies being registered and subsequently facing closure, indicating a concentration of resources among leading firms [11] - The capital is increasingly flowing towards top companies, creating a positive cycle of financing, research, and market presence, while smaller firms face systemic challenges [13] - A layered support system is needed to maintain the international competitiveness of leading firms while preserving innovation among smaller enterprises [14] Group 5: Data Privacy and Ethical Considerations - Data has become a core resource driving innovation in AI, but privacy issues are emerging as a significant concern [17] - AI companies face a dilemma between needing vast amounts of data for model training and the risks associated with data privacy breaches [18] - The rapid increase in sensitive data uploads by employees highlights the urgent need for ethical governance in AI development [19] Group 6: Future Directions and Innovations - AI technology is entering the market as an efficiency tool, but high costs and slow commercialization progress pose challenges [32] - Major players are engaging in price wars to stimulate market demand, with price reductions reaching over 90% [34] - Innovations like DeepSeek demonstrate that performance can be achieved at a fraction of the cost through algorithmic innovation and limited computing power [36] - The establishment of open-source ecosystems can foster cross-industry collaboration and spur innovation [37]

Core Viewpoint - The theme of the 11th Nishan World Civilization Forum is "Each Beauty is Beautiful, and All Beauties Share Together - The Relationship Between Civilizations and Global Modernization," focusing on constructing a new form of human civilization amidst complex geopolitical landscapes and increasing trade barriers [4][7]. Group 1: Forum Overview - The 11th Nishan World Civilization Forum will be held from July 9 to 10, 2025, in Qufu, Shandong, and has become a significant platform for global dialogue on civilization since its inception in September 2010 [3][5]. - The forum has evolved from a few hundred participants to nearly 400 attendees from 63 countries in its 10th edition, with over 50% being international scholars [5][6]. Group 2: Themes and Subtopics - This year's forum will address pressing issues such as the origins and future development of civilizations, the global significance of Confucian culture, and the role of artificial intelligence in human civilization [4][7]. - The forum aims to explore how different civilizations can coexist and learn from each other to create a better future [4][19]. Group 3: Historical Context and Evolution - The themes of past forums reflect changes in the global landscape, transitioning from cultural discussions to addressing governance and contemporary challenges like ecological crises and geopolitical tensions [21][22]. - The forum has shifted from focusing solely on cultural values to integrating governance and practical solutions for global issues [21][22]. Group 4: Cultural Dialogue and Mutual Learning - The forum emphasizes the importance of cultural diversity as a source of human progress and advocates for mutual respect and understanding among different civilizations [32][34]. - It promotes the idea that human civilization's development is a unity of diversity and commonality, encouraging dialogue to foster progress [32][34]. Group 5: Future Challenges and Opportunities - The rise of artificial intelligence presents significant challenges for human civilization, necessitating discussions on ethical boundaries and governance [35][36]. - The integration of traditional Confucian values with modern governance is seen as essential for addressing contemporary societal needs [36][39].