周期品趋势有所加强，贵金属等短期涨幅巨大，高位震荡加剧。近期 贵金属价格的加速上涨，似乎并非单纯是美元指数的下跌所致，而是 全球地缘格局演变导致货币金融体系出现历史性变化所致。美元指数 的异常表现，或表明美元即美元资产的避险地位正在松动，相应的实 物资产的重要性提升。因而有色、化工等周期品种需引起持续关注。 【市场回顾】 市场概况：1 月 29 日，三大指数涨跌不一，沪指窄幅震荡，上证 50 指 数涨超 1%，创业板指冲高回落，科创 50 指数跌超 3%。截至收盘，沪 指涨 0.16%，深成指跌 0.3%，创业板指跌 0.57%。 【资金面】 主力资金流向：1 月 29 日，上证净流入 89.05 亿元，深证净流入 131.15 亿元。行业板块方面，主力资金流入前三的板块为白酒、广告营销、 软件开发。主力资金流出排名前三的板块为半导体、消费电子、元件。 每日市场观察 2026 年 1 月 30 日 【今日关注】 周四沪深指数互有涨跌，成交额 3.26 万亿，比上一交易日增加约 2700 亿。行业过半数上涨，食品饮料、传媒、地产、有色等行业涨幅居前， 电子、机械、电力设备、军工等行业跌幅居前。 周四主板指数较为 ...

【资金面】 每日市场观察 2026 年 1 月 29 日 【今日关注】 周三两市指数小幅上涨，成交额 2.99 万亿，比上一交易日增加约 700 亿。过半数行业下跌，有色、化工、石油、煤炭等行业涨幅居前，军 工、医药、家电、传媒等行业跌幅居前。 周三指数窄幅波动，但行业分化加速。指数自 1 月中旬以来持续横盘 震荡，技术层面显得较为稳健。从持续 3 万亿左右的成交量，以及不 断出现新的热点板块，尤其有色品种趋势不断强化等特征看，市场在 指数层面并无忧虑。连续一段时间来看，市场重心从科技转向周期的 特征逐渐明显。周期品的行情，从起初的贵金属开始向有色、化工等 方向扩散。对应贵金属的强势，美元指数加速下行，全球货币金融体 系和资金方向的历史性变动初露端倪，其背后是全球地缘政治格局的 变化预期。 行业板块快速轮动，提升了短线操作的难度。虽然有色品种的中期趋 势有较强确定性，但在指数短期内难有趋势性变化情况下，对强势的 品种需谨慎追涨。需要注意的是，在有色等周期品种吸引全市场关注 的同时，半导体、算力等科技品种并未趋势性转向，其阶段性调整或 带来较好的布局机会。 【市场回顾】 市场概况：1 月 28 日，沪指、深成指 ...

大盘仍未脱离整体震荡的范畴，因而操作上应避免追涨强势板块。商 业航天走势有所缓和，前期过热的情况有所降温，这有助于板块中长 期震荡向上的趋势维持。无论从行业逻辑还是前期市场资金的参与情 况看，该板块仍值得持续关注。半导体板块细分领域较多，其中处于 较低位置的中上游环节以及功率、模拟等仍具备较高的性价比。 【市场回顾】 市场概况：1 月 27 日，市场探底回升，三大指数集体翻红，创业板指 一度涨超 1%。截至收盘，沪指涨 0.18%，深成指涨 0.09%，创业板指涨 0.71%。 每日市场观察 2026 年 1 月 28 日 【今日关注】 周二市场小幅收涨，成交额 2.92 万亿，比上一交易日减少约 3600 亿。 行业多数下跌，电子、通信、军工等行业涨幅居前，煤炭、农业、钢 铁、医药等行业跌幅居前。 上午开盘延续周一的弱势，跌幅一度较大，下跌个股超过 4500 只。但 上午 10 点之后大盘分时图走出 V 型反转，具有人气带动作用的半导体， AI 算力等板块出现较为有力的上涨，且直至收盘，市场维持了较高的 强度。期间对市场影响较大的权重有色板块有明显回落，但其影响被 半导体等科技板块的上涨所抵消。从中可见，近 ...

每日市场观察 2026 年 1 月 27 日 【今日关注】 周一市场收跌，成交额 3.28 万亿，比上一交易日增加约 1600 亿。行 业过半数下跌，有色、煤炭、石油等行业涨幅居前，军工、汽车、电 子、社会服务等行业跌幅居前。 周一开盘后不久即快速下探，尤其是前期涨幅较大、市场关注度较高 的科技题材类跌幅较大，比如商业航天和太空光伏板块。其他科技方 向如半导体、机器人等跌幅也比较大。这种科技板块方向普跌的现象， 属于开年以来较为罕见的现象。受益于商品市场的强势，有色、煤炭 等周期品涨幅居前，但并不能对冲科技板块调整对大盘的影响。 周一的调整，最主要的原因仍在于监管层对市场的降温意图。前期商 业航天等板块快速上涨，在后续出现密集的异动公告，提高融资保证 金比例等降温措施之后，商业航天在上周后半段再度出现大幅上涨的 现象。从博弈的角度，市场资金对于这种快速的上涨存有较大疑虑。 同时也应看到，沪深 300、上证 50 等相关的 ETF 近期出现连续的巨量 成交，以及周一收盘有较多权重大盘股出现巨量卖单，较大程度上反 映出监管层的降温意图仍然较为坚决。在当前市场流动性支撑较强情 况下，市场向下调整的幅度可能有限，但类 ...

每日市场观察 2026 年 1 月 26 日 【今日关注】 周五沪深两市双双高开，沪指早盘震荡上攻，午盘后股指有所回落。 截止收盘三大指数集体收涨，沪指涨 0.33%，深证成指涨 0.79%，创业 板指涨 0.63%。行业板块多数上涨，上涨个股数量超过 3700 只。光伏 设备、能源金属、电池、有色金属、贵金属等板块涨幅居前，保险板 块逆市走弱。沪深京三市成交额超过 3.1 万亿，较周四放量 4000 亿， 成交活跃，市场做多信心恢复。 今年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，"加快建设航天强国"目标首次 被纳入国家五年规划重点任务；1 月 23 日至 24 日，第三届北京商业航 天产业高质量发展推进会将在北京经开区举办。A 股市场上，商业航天 概念股在回调多日之后，开启了连续两天的上涨。商业航天产业方兴 未艾，正迈入需求侧与供给侧双向发力的黄金时代，建议投资者重点 关注卫星制造、卫星发射等的投资机会。 沪指自 1 月 14 日盘中沪深北三大交易所将融资保证金最低比例从 80% 上调至 100%的政策之后，K 线横盘震荡 7 天，成交量持续维持在 2.5 万亿之上，市场依旧保持活跃。当前市场热点主要集中在科技方向快 ...

每日市场观察 2026 年 1 月 23 日 【今日关注】 沪指早盘高开低走，午后震荡回升，三大指数集体翻红，沪指涨 0.14 %，深证成指涨 0.50%，创业板指涨 1.01%。行业板块多数收涨，航天 航空、采掘行业、船舶制造等板块涨幅居前，电子化学品、保险板块 跌幅居前。沪深京三市成交额超过 2.7 万亿，较周四放量近千亿。量 能保持在 2.5 万亿之上，总体上继续保持震荡格局。 以 CPO 为代表的科技板块持续活跃，周四龙头个股再度大涨。其实无 论是 CPO、PCB、半导体设备，还是脑机接口、存储芯片等细分领域， 均受益于新质生产力发展与政策红利加持，业绩增长确定性较强。资 金从高位题材股向硬科技核心标的集中，正是市场回归价值投资的体 现。价值投资标的并不仅限于传统的食品饮料等板块，与时俱进提高 市场认知，硬科技才是当下核心主线。 短线看，沪指已经持续 6 个交易日的窄幅震荡，其中不乏投资机遇。 与其纠结于大盘走势，不如紧扣硬科技这一中长线投资方向。从近一 年的市场表现看，以 CPO 为代表的科技板块持续活跃，穿越了市场震 荡，走势明显强于大盘。操作上，建议投资者保持理性，短期震荡不 改长期趋势，坚守核 ...

Market Performance - On January 20, the three major indices collectively closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.97%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.79%[3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 28,044 billion, an increase of 720 billion compared to Monday, indicating strong market support[1] Policy and Economic Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to formulate a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, aiming to create new demand through new supply[1] - The NDRC announced a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to promote price recovery, with a focus on the interaction between economic growth and price increases[5] Industry Trends - The sectors with the highest inflow of main funds on January 20 were power, infrastructure, and chemical products, while the sectors with the highest outflow were communication equipment, batteries, and military electronics[4] - The NDRC is planning to promote significant projects in high-tech industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with the digital economy expected to reach 49 trillion yuan by 2025, accounting for approximately 35% of GDP[7] Consumer Policies - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy has been extended until the end of 2026, allowing eligible residents to enjoy interest subsidies on qualifying consumption during this period[9] - A national unified subsidy standard for vehicle scrapping and replacement will be implemented, optimizing fund allocation based on consumption potential and policy execution[8] Investment Initiatives - A special guarantee plan for private investment has been announced, with a scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supporting loans for small and micro enterprises[12] - The NDRC is studying the establishment of a national-level merger fund to enhance government investment and fund layout planning[14]

Market Performance - On January 19, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.70%[3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2.7 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 320 billion yuan from the previous day[1] Sector Performance - The leading sectors included precious metals, electric grid equipment, tourism and hotels, and aviation airports, while communication equipment and internet services saw the largest declines[1] - Net inflow of funds into the Shanghai market was 26.947 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen market experienced a net outflow of 7.785 billion yuan[4] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, the highest increase since March 2023[5] - In 2025, the stock trading volume and turnover in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets grew by 26.5% and 62.6% respectively compared to the previous year[6] Investment Insights - The State Grid Corporation plans to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a 40% increase from the previous plan, aiming to enhance the new energy system[1] - Investors are advised to remain rational and selectively optimize their portfolios as the market transitions from broad speculation to performance-driven sectors[1]

Market Overview - On January 19, 2026, the market indices experienced a slight decline, with a trading volume of 3.06 trillion, an increase of approximately 120 billion from the previous trading day[1] - The majority of sectors saw declines, while electric vehicles, machinery, and power equipment sectors rose, and media, computing, oil, and social services sectors faced the largest drops[1] - The market showed a clear divergence, with major indices opening high but fluctuating throughout the day, indicating intense competition for capital among various sectors[1] Sector Performance - Semiconductor and robotics sectors outperformed, while high-voltage, new energy, and computing sectors showed performance but could not maintain strength[1] - Despite index adjustments, market sentiment remains high, suggesting that recent index fluctuations are not a cause for concern[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has been adjusting, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and ChiNext Index show strong performance, indicating a continued focus on technology sectors[1] Financial Flows - On January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Composite saw a net outflow of 11.15 billion, while the Shenzhen Composite had a net outflow of 6.40 billion[4] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were semiconductors, automotive parts, and consumer electronics, while IT services, software development, and advertising faced the largest outflows[4] Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized maintaining market stability and preventing large fluctuations, focusing on enhancing market monitoring and regulation[5][6] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is pushing for reforms in state-owned enterprises to improve efficiency and innovation[7] Industry Developments - A new 3 MW gas turbine was launched, which is expected to significantly advance high-end energy equipment development in China[8][9] - A new management approach for the recycling and utilization of used power batteries from electric vehicles will be implemented starting April 1, 2026, focusing on full lifecycle management[10][11] Fund Dynamics - The public fund issuance market has seen a surge, with 25 funds announcing early closure due to high demand, indicating a rapid fundraising pace[12] - The total trading volume of ETFs reached 751.24 billion, marking a record high, with stock ETFs accounting for 33.82 billion and bond ETFs for 32.91 billion[13]

Market Overview - On January 15, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 0.41% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.56%[2] - The total trading volume on January 15 was 2.94 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 1.05 trillion yuan from the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - The sectors with the largest gains included electronics, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, while military, media, computer, and pharmaceutical sectors experienced the largest declines[1] - Major capital inflows were observed in the semiconductor, communication equipment, and consumer electronics sectors, while IT services, securities, and aerospace equipment saw significant outflows[3] Regulatory Impact - The exchange raised the margin financing ratio on January 15, indicating regulatory intent to cool down the rapid market rise[1] - The market's reduced trading volume reflects a natural response to regulatory measures, with a pause in aggressive buying rather than panic selling[1] Economic Indicators - As of the end of December, the broad money supply (M2) was 340.29 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.5%[4] - The total social financing increment for 2025 was reported at 35.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.34 trillion yuan compared to the previous year[5] Investment Trends - There has been a notable increase in the issuance of metal-themed funds, with 7 new funds reported in the past week and a net subscription of over 51 billion yuan for metal-themed ETFs over the past year[11] - The total trading volume of ETFs reached a record high of 7487.59 billion yuan on January 15, following a previous peak of 7155.35 billion yuan on January 14[12]