Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: GRU(50,2)+NN(10) Factor - **Model Construction Idea**: This factor leverages a deep learning architecture combining Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) and Neural Networks (NN) to capture high-frequency trading patterns and predict stock returns[4][55] - **Model Construction Process**: - The GRU(50,2) component processes sequential high-frequency data with 50 units and 2 layers - The NN(10) component is a fully connected neural network with 10 neurons in the output layer - The model is trained on historical high-frequency data to predict stock returns, optimizing for multi-class classification or regression tasks[4][55] - **Model Evaluation**: Demonstrates robust performance in capturing high-frequency trading signals and generating stable returns[4][55] 2. Model Name: Multi-Granularity Model (5-Day Label) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses multi-granularity data to predict stock returns over a 5-day horizon, leveraging bidirectional AGRU (Attention-based GRU) for feature extraction[57][60] - **Model Construction Process**: - Input data is segmented into multiple granularities (e.g., daily, intraday) - Bidirectional AGRU is applied to extract temporal features from the data - A 5-day label is used as the prediction target, and the model is trained to optimize for this horizon[57][60] - **Model Evaluation**: Effective in capturing medium-term trading patterns and generating consistent returns[57][60] 3. Model Name: Multi-Granularity Model (10-Day Label) - **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the 5-day label model, this version extends the prediction horizon to 10 days, using bidirectional AGRU for feature extraction[60][65] - **Model Construction Process**: - Multi-granularity data is processed with bidirectional AGRU - A 10-day label is used as the prediction target, and the model is trained to optimize for this extended horizon[60][65] - **Model Evaluation**: Provides a longer-term perspective on trading patterns, with slightly lower returns compared to the 5-day model but still effective[60][65] --- Model Backtesting Results GRU(50,2)+NN(10) Factor - **IC**: Historical: 0.066, 2025: 0.039[4][55] - **e^(-RankMAE)**: Historical: 0.336, 2025: 0.334[4][55] - **Long-Short Return**: Weekly: 0.70%, June: 3.58%, 2025 YTD: 19.78%[4][55] - **Long-Only Excess Return**: Weekly: -0.30%, June: 0.92%, 2025 YTD: -1.06%[4][55] Multi-Granularity Model (5-Day Label) - **IC**: Historical: 0.081, 2025: 0.070[57][60] - **e^(-RankMAE)**: Historical: 0.344, 2025: 0.343[57][60] - **Long-Short Return**: Weekly: 1.56%, June: 5.97%, 2025 YTD: 35.45%[57][60] - **Long-Only Excess Return**: Weekly: 0.40%, June: 2.16%, 2025 YTD: 11.87%[57][60] Multi-Granularity Model (10-Day Label) - **IC**: Historical: 0.074, 2025: 0.065[60][65] - **e^(-RankMAE)**: Historical: 0.342, 2025: 0.343[60][65] - **Long-Short Return**: Weekly: 1.66%, June: 5.76%, 2025 YTD: 33.44%[60][65] - **Long-Only Excess Return**: Weekly: 0.71%, June: 2.06%, 2025 YTD: 11.11%[60][65] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Intraday Skewness Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of intraday returns to capture asymmetry in price movements[4][10] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate intraday returns for each stock - Compute the skewness of these returns using the formula: $ Skewness = \frac{E[(X - \mu)^3]}{\sigma^3} $ where $X$ is the return, $\mu$ is the mean, and $\sigma$ is the standard deviation[4][10] - **Factor Evaluation**: Effective in identifying stocks with asymmetric return distributions, though performance varies across periods[4][10] 2. Factor Name: Downside Volatility Ratio - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on the proportion of downside volatility relative to total volatility to capture risk-averse behavior[4][14] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate downside volatility as the standard deviation of negative returns - Compute the ratio of downside volatility to total volatility[4][14] - **Factor Evaluation**: Useful for identifying stocks with higher downside risk, though returns are sensitive to market conditions[4][14] 3. Factor Name: Opening Buy Intensity - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the intensity of buy orders during the opening period to capture early trading sentiment[4][17] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Aggregate buy orders in the first 30 minutes of trading - Normalize by total trading volume during the same period[4][17] - **Factor Evaluation**: Captures short-term sentiment effectively, though performance is volatile[4][17] --- Factor Backtesting Results Intraday Skewness Factor - **IC**: Historical: 0.027, 2025: 0.047[4][10] - **e^(-RankMAE)**: Historical: 0.324, 2025: 0.330[4][10] - **Long-Short Return**: Weekly: -0.51%, June: 1.48%, 2025 YTD: 14.73%[4][10] - **Long-Only Excess Return**: Weekly: -0.03%, June: 0.18%, 2025 YTD: 2.59%[4][10] Downside Volatility Ratio - **IC**: Historical: 0.025, 2025: 0.046[4][14] - **e^(-RankMAE)**: Historical: 0.324, 2025: 0.328[4][14] - **Long-Short Return**: Weekly: -0.04%, June: 1.86%, 2025 YTD: 12.84%[4][14] - **Long-Only Excess Return**: Weekly: 0.09%, June: 0.50%, 2025 YTD: 1.07%[4][14] Opening Buy Intensity - **IC**: Historical: 0.031, 2025: 0.028[4][17] - **e^(-RankMAE)**: Historical: 0.322, 2025: 0.322[4][17] - **Long-Short Return**: Weekly: 0.77%, June: 1.85%, 2025 YTD: 11.44%[4][17] - **Long-Only Excess Return**: Weekly: 0.04%, June: 0.61%, 2025 YTD: 5.91%[4][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 14.00 [6][12]. Core Views - The company demonstrates operational resilience in its board segment, while the non-board segment is shifting towards higher value products. The trend of cost reduction remains positive, and there is a concentrated risk of impairment at year-end. The value of high shareholder returns continues to be highlighted [2][12]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 9,063 million in 2023, with a slight increase to 9,189 million in 2024, and further growth to 11,555 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.2% from 2024 to 2027 [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 689 million in 2023 to 585 million in 2024, before recovering to 1,003 million by 2027, indicating a significant growth of 54.7% in 2025 [4][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to decline from 0.83 in 2023 to 0.70 in 2024, then rise to 1.21 by 2027 [4][13]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 21.5% in 2023 to 19.2% in 2024, before increasing to 24.8% by 2027 [4][13]. Revenue Breakdown - The board segment is expected to maintain strong double-digit growth in 2024, while other decorative materials are projected to generate approximately 21.4 billion in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 7.6% [12]. - The customized home segment is anticipated to decline by 18.73%, primarily due to the contraction of the Yufeng Hantang scale [12]. Cost Management - The company is expected to reduce management expenses by approximately 0.54 billion in 2024, with financial expenses also decreasing by about 0.21 billion [12]. - The trend of decreasing absolute costs is expected to continue into 2025, showcasing effective internal cost control [12]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced a profit distribution plan for the end of 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 3.2 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to a total cash dividend of 4.93 billion, which corresponds to a dividend yield of approximately 6% [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 47.00 CNY [5][11]. Core Insights - The semiconductor business has become the core growth driver for the company, with significant advancements in semiconductor sand certification. The importance of self-sufficiency has become more pronounced amid external uncertainties, and domestic substitution is expected to accelerate [2][11]. - The company has achieved breakthroughs in semiconductor-grade high-purity sand certification, which is crucial for semiconductor materials. This positions the company favorably in a market dominated by a few global suppliers [11]. - The photovoltaic business is stabilizing after a period of adjustment, with a focus on risk control. The price of high-purity sand has reached a bottom, and there is potential for recovery as the photovoltaic industry undergoes inventory reduction and capacity adjustments [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a significant increase in 2023, with expected revenue of 7,184 million CNY, followed by a sharp decline in 2024 to 1,210 million CNY, and gradual recovery in subsequent years [4][12]. - Net profit for 2023 is projected at 5,039 million CNY, with a drastic decrease to 334 million CNY in 2024, before recovering to 1,105 million CNY by 2027 [4][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop to 0.62 CNY in 2024, with a gradual increase to 2.04 CNY by 2027 [4][12]. Market Data - The current stock price is 36.09 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 21.60-43.68 CNY. The total market capitalization is 19,549 million CNY [6][11]. - The company has a net asset value per share of 10.74 CNY, with a price-to-book ratio of 3.4 [7][11]. Industry Context - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards domestic suppliers due to geopolitical tensions, highlighting the importance of local sourcing for critical materials [11]. - The company is actively working on localizing its supply chain for semiconductor quartz materials, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the market [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Wangwang (0151) [2][6] Core Views - The company's FY24 profitability continues to expand, with internal organizational reforms initiated in the second half of the fiscal year to enhance channel development, particularly in emerging and overseas markets [2][6] - The revenue for FY24 is projected to decrease by 1.7% year-on-year, primarily due to declines in ice cream and rice snacks, while gross profit margin is expected to increase by 0.99 percentage points due to lower costs of raw materials and packaging [6][5] - The net profit for FY24 is forecasted to grow by 8.6% year-on-year, with a net profit margin increase of 1.52 percentage points to 18.41% [6][5] Financial Summary - Revenue (in million RMB): FY2022: 23,327.17, FY2023: 23,924.37, FY2024: 23,510.74 [5] - Gross Profit (in million RMB): FY2022: 10,071.03, FY2023: 10,990.92, FY2024: 11,189.20 [5] - Net Profit (in million RMB): FY2022: 3,371.58, FY2023: 3,990.47, FY2024: 4,335.57 [5] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 13.35 for FY2024 and decrease to 12.08 by FY2027 [5][6] - The target price is set at HKD 7.02 per share, equivalent to RMB 7.71 per share based on the exchange rate of 0.91 [6] Product Performance - Dairy beverage revenue is expected to grow by 1.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 1.2 percentage points [6] - Rice snacks revenue is projected to decline by 1.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin decrease of 1.9 percentage points [6] - Ice cream revenue showed a decline in the first half of FY24 but is expected to achieve rapid growth in the second half [6] Organizational Changes - The company has initiated internal organizational reforms in FY24, establishing product-based divisions to enhance channel collaboration and manage domestic and international operations [6] - Emerging channels are expected to grow at a double-digit rate, contributing significantly to revenue [6]

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a pullback from June 16 to June 20, 2025, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.45%, the ESG 300 index down by 0.69%, the CSI ESG 100 index down by 0.35%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation ESG index down by 0.81%[2] - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market was approximately 1.22 trillion yuan, indicating a decrease in liquidity compared to the previous period[5] ESG Fund Issuance - A total of 14 ESG fund products were issued in June 2025, with a total issuance of 3.319 billion units, primarily focusing on ESG strategies and social responsibility[7] - Over the past year, 240 ESG public fund products were issued, with a total issuance of 179.629 billion units[7] - As of June 22, 2025, there are 893 existing ESG fund products, with the largest share being ESG strategy funds at 52.70% of the total net asset value of 1,044.95 billion yuan[9] Fund Performance - The top-performing fund for the week of June 16 to June 22, 2025, was Bosera Return Select A, with a weekly return of 3.18% and a year-to-date return of 14.44%[10] - Other notable funds included Huabao Core Advantage A and Huitianfu Autonomous Core Technology One-Year Holding A, which also showed strong returns[10] Green Bond Issuance - In the week of June 16 to June 25, 2025, a total of 35 green bonds were issued in the interbank and exchange markets, with a planned issuance scale of approximately 53.452 billion yuan[14] - For the month, 96 ESG bonds were issued, totaling 107.7 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 1,150 billion yuan over the past year[14] - The total outstanding ESG bonds reached 3,573, with a stock scale of 5.49 trillion yuan, where green bonds accounted for 61.39%[14] Bank Wealth Management Products - In June 2025, 61 ESG bank wealth management products were issued, with a total of 931 existing products in the market[19] - Among these, pure ESG theme products accounted for the largest share at 57.79%[19] Risk Factors - Potential risks include insufficient policy support for ESG initiatives, lack of standardized data reporting, and lower-than-expected product issuance scales[21]

Group 1 - The median return of conservative fixed income + products was 0.09% for the week of June 16-20, 2025, with 294 products reaching historical net value highs [2][20] - The total market size of fixed income + funds reached 1,692.127 billion, with 1,173 products available as of June 20, 2025 [2][10] - The performance of various fund types showed divergence, with median returns for mixed bond type funds being 0.10% for level one and -0.02% for level two [2][12] Group 2 - The macro environment forecast for Q2 2025 indicates inflation, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, the China government bond index, and gold showing respective increases of 0.17%, 0.71%, and 1.28% since June [2][3] - The recommended industry ETFs for June 2025 include those focused on securities companies, semiconductors, banks, and major consumer sectors, achieving a combined return of 0.21% for the week [2][3] Group 3 - The stock-bond mixed strategy showed a return of 0.03% for the 20/80 rebalancing strategy, while the risk parity strategy yielded a return of 0.15% [3][3] - The small-cap value style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination performed best with a year-to-date return of 5.17% [3][3] - The cumulative return for the small-cap value combination, adjusted for macro momentum, was 2.55% [3][3]

Investment Chain - Since June, prices of copper, aluminum, lead, tin, and silver have increased. In May 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment decreased to 3.70%, while the decline in real estate development investment narrowed to -10.70%. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing fixed asset investment fell to 8.50%, and infrastructure investment decreased to 10.42% [4][8] - In June 2025, prices of copper, aluminum, lead, tin, and silver have risen, while prices of gold, zinc, and nickel have decreased. The price of thermal coal slightly decreased to 663 RMB/ton, and the price of coking coal also slightly declined. The average price of ordinary cement saw a minor decrease, while steel prices have risen [4][8] Consumption Chain - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of social consumption has increased, with automobile sales showing a year-on-year growth rate of 11.15% in May 2025. The nominal year-on-year growth rate for May 2025 rebounded to 6.40%, and the cumulative nominal year-on-year growth rate rose to 5.00% [4][9] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales area saw a larger decline, dropping to -3.62%. The retail sales of home appliances in May 2025 increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth rate of 56.98% [4][9] Export Chain - In May 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of export amounts to the United States, Japan, and ASEAN decreased, while the growth rate of exports to the European Union increased. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of exports for toys, lamps, coke, coal, steel, ships, plastics, and auto parts rose, while the growth rates for agricultural products, furniture, refined oil, crude oil, and aluminum decreased [4][10] - The OECD leading indicator for the United States fell to 100.26 in May 2025. The electronic export amount's year-on-year growth rate increased to 21.17%, while the textile and clothing export amount's growth rate decreased to 1.98% [4][10] Price Chain - Oil prices have risen, with WTI reaching 64.37 USD/barrel on June 24, 2025. The price of PVC dropped to 4680 RMB/ton, and the prices of pure MDI and polymer MDI decreased to 17100 RMB/ton and 16200 RMB/ton, respectively [4][11] - The price of pork decreased to 14.45 RMB/kg on June 11, 2025, while cotton prices increased and sugar prices decreased. The increase in new credit in May 2025 reached 620 billion RMB, and the year-on-year growth rate of life insurance premium income rose to 1.15% [4][11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the industry [1][26]. Core Insights - The ongoing "trade-in" subsidy policy is expected to benefit the recycling resources sector, with a significant increase in support for consumer goods trade-ins in 2025 [4][8]. - The government plans to allocate 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the trade-in policy, with 162 billion yuan already distributed in early 2025 [9][10]. - The automotive recycling chain is anticipated to improve, with over 5 million passenger cars expected to benefit from scrapping subsidies in 2025 [9][10]. Summary by Sections Weekly Investment Perspective - The report highlights the continuation of the trade-in subsidy policy and the phased distribution of subsidy funds for the second half of the year [4][8]. - The 2025 action plan aims to double the scrapping volume of old vehicles compared to 2023, with a 25% increase in industrial equipment investment [8][9]. Environmental Sector Performance - The environmental sector experienced a decline of 2.51% in the week of June 16-20, 2025, while other sectors showed mixed performance [11][14]. - Notable stock performances included Xiangtan Electric (+18.51%) and Tianhao Energy (+13.37%) [11][16]. Carbon Neutrality Tracking - The national carbon market saw a transaction volume of 3.52 million tons, a 12% increase from the previous week, with an average transaction price of 72.36 yuan per ton [14][18]. - Local carbon exchanges also reported significant increases in trading volumes and prices [14][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investments in the recycling resources sector, specifically in companies like Zhuoyue New Energy and Sanlian Hongpu for recycled oil and plastics, respectively [10][12]. - Companies such as Huahong Technology and Zhongzi Technology are recommended for their potential in increasing automotive recycling volumes [10][12].

Group 1: Robotaxi Launch and Features - Tesla officially launched its Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas on June 22, 2025, with approximately 10 refurbished Model Y vehicles[2] - The service operates from 6 AM to midnight, charging a fixed fare of $4.20 per ride, and includes a safety officer in the passenger seat[3] - Future expansions are expected to include additional vehicles like the CyberCab, which will not have traditional steering wheels or pedals[3] Group 2: Industry Development and Market Position - The Robotaxi industry has evolved over more than 10 years, with China and the U.S. leading in commercialization, currently in the 1.0 phase[5] - Since 2025, the commercialization of Robotaxi services has accelerated, with companies like Waymo and Tesla achieving paid operations in North America[5] - In China, companies like Pony.ai and LoCab are also rapidly advancing their commercial operations[5] Group 3: Industry Chain and Beneficiaries - The Robotaxi industry chain consists of upstream hardware and software, midstream vehicle manufacturing, and downstream mobility services[6] - Key beneficiaries in the supply chain include sensor manufacturers and companies specializing in control systems, as demand for these components is expected to rise with the acceleration of Robotaxi commercialization[7] - Leading companies in the Robotaxi space, such as Baidu and Pony.ai, are positioned to gain market share as the industry expands[7] Group 4: Challenges and Risks - The commercialization of Robotaxi faces challenges including technological reliability, high costs, and regulatory hurdles[30] - Current L3 and L4 autonomous driving technologies are not yet fully reliable, posing risks to operational safety[30] - Legal ambiguities regarding liability and insurance for autonomous vehicles remain significant barriers to widespread adoption[31]

Policy and Market Dynamics - The "Digital Transformation Implementation Plan for the Textile Industry" aims to promote high-end, intelligent, green, and integrated development, enhancing industry competitiveness and value chain levels[4]. - The core direction of the transformation emphasizes "greening," promoting energy conservation and sustainable development through digital means[11]. ESG Bond and Fund Trends - As of June 20, 2025, there are 6,057 ESG (green) bonds, a weekly increase of 6, with a total balance of 12.4 trillion yuan, down 5.7% from the previous week[12]. - The total number of Wind ESG investment funds reached 893, increasing by 135, with a total scale of 1,044.95 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth in ESG investment interest[12]. Carbon Market Activity - From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the cumulative trading volume in the carbon market was 352.3 million tons, up 11.7% week-on-week, with a cumulative transaction value of 25.5 million yuan, increasing by 16.3%[25]. - The transaction price on June 20 was 73.1 yuan per ton, marking a 2.7% increase from June 13[29].