Guotai Junan Securities

Search documents
市场策略周报:高切低深化,重视业绩确定性-2025-03-25
Guotai Junan Securities· 2025-03-25 02:57
高切低深化,重视业绩确定性 [Table_Authors] 顾一格(分析师) 转债策略周报 本报告导读: 建议通过控制转债绝对价格控制回撤,选择正股估值不高且业绩确定性较强的转债, 低估值科技和景气度修复的顺周期板块均衡配置。此外,流动性冲击带来的大盘转 债下跌往往是较好的布局机会。 投资要点: | | guyige@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | 021-38038201 S0880522120006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 二季度的债市:利率下行不必等待降准降息 2025.03.24 科创债发行特征回顾与展望 2025.03.19 存单一级和短资金背离后:跨季资金如何演绎 2025.03.18 板块分化,消费领涨 2025.03.17 顺势而为,布局内需 2025.03.17 证 券 研 究 报 告 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.25 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 研 究 市 场 策 略 周 报 [Table_Summary] 业绩验证期临近,权益市场或延续震荡,建议控制转债绝对价格, 择券需更重视业绩确定性。根 ...
航空行业1-2月数据点评:客流保持良好增长,期待票价同比修复
Guotai Junan Securities· 2025-03-25 02:54
客流保持良好增长,期待票价同比修复 [Table_Industry] 航空 ——航空行业 1-2 月数据点评 [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 上次评级: 增持 | [table_Authors] 岳鑫(分析师) | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | | --- | --- | | 0755-23976758 | 0755-23976666 | | yuexin@gtjas.com | chenyifan029909@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880514030006 | S0880124070025 | 本报告导读: 重视航空长逻辑。1-2 月客流同比增长 6%,客座率恢复至 2019 年。新航季保障供 需继续恢复,期待公商务增长与票价修复。成本压力改善或助力盈利恢复好于预期。 投资要点: [Table_Report] 相关报告 航空《提振消费保障需求增长,航班换季国内供 给消化》2025.03.24 航空《2025 年春运需求旺盛,节后公商务启动良 好》2025.02.24 航空《春运客流再创新高,航司盈利或超预期》 2025.02.24 航空《春运返程客流分散后移,航空票价降幅或 收窄》 ...
国际金融中心专题报告系列之上海篇:境内离岸金融中心建设正当时
Guotai Junan Securities· 2025-03-25 02:52
Group 1 - The construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center is a necessary path for China to become a financial power, serving as a hub for global capital flow, financial innovation, and regulatory systems [6][13][16] - Shanghai's financial market system is comprehensive, covering various sectors such as stocks, bonds, futures, and foreign exchange, making it a crucial window for China's financial innovation and openness [13][19][20] Group 2 - The Shanghai International Financial Center comprises five key elements: financial regulation and control, financial factor markets, financial product markets, financial infrastructure, and financial institutions, which are essential for its development [17][18] - The financial market in Shanghai is extensive, with a total trading volume of 337.36 trillion yuan in 2023, ranking first globally, and is expected to grow by 8.2% to 365.03 trillion yuan in 2024 [19][20] Group 3 - Shanghai's international financial center has significant advantages in promoting the development of other centers, including economic, trade, shipping, and technological innovation centers, creating a synergistic effect [25][26] - The international influence of the Shanghai International Financial Center is limited, with foreign investment in the stock market at approximately 4%, significantly lower than that of New York and London [30][33] Group 4 - The development of an offshore financial center is crucial for enhancing the internationalization of the Shanghai International Financial Center, with a focus on providing offshore financial services to non-residents and qualified resident enterprises [47][52] - The construction of a domestic offshore financial market is a key focus, with the aim of improving the international competitiveness of financial services and facilitating the internationalization of the renminbi [52][54]
BOSS直聘-W(02076):份额稳步提升,AI将带动景气回暖
Guotai Junan Securities· 2025-03-20 11:22
Investment Rating - The investment rating for BOSS Zhipin is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 98.01, reflecting an upward adjustment based on a valuation of 25x PE for 2025, which is above the industry average [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady market share growth, with AI and specific job sectors gradually improving in demand. The implementation of AI-related products is expected to contribute to incremental revenue [4][11]. - The financial performance for Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 1.824 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%. The adjusted net profit was RMB 722 million, up 14.92% [11]. - The company has adjusted its projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 to RMB 3.299 billion and RMB 3.998 billion, respectively, reflecting a slight downward revision due to increased expenses [4][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue growth from 2021 to 2024 shows a significant increase, with 2024 projected revenue at RMB 7.356 billion, representing a 24% increase year-on-year. The adjusted net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 2.710 billion, a 25.72% increase [7][11]. - The company has maintained effective cost control, with a decrease in sales and R&D expense ratios, contributing to a 27% growth in operating profit [11]. - The blue-collar market has expanded, with blue-collar revenue accounting for 38% of total revenue in Q4 2024, indicating a shift in market dynamics [11].
众安在线(06060)2024年年报业绩点评:利润显著改善,AI打造增长曲线
Guotai Junan Securities· 2025-03-20 11:21
[Table_Industry] 金融 [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 ——众安在线 2024 年年报业绩点评 本报告导读: 公司 24 年净利润同比 105.4%(剔除同期众安国际并表影响),预计主要得益于承保 盈利贡献,投资收益提振,科技及银行盈利改善。维持"增持"。 投资要点: 催化剂:资本市场回暖。 利润显著改善,AI 打造增长曲线 众安在线(6060) | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦(分析师) | 李嘉木(分析师) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元): | 13.82 | | 021-38676647 | 021-38038619 | | | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | lijiamu026075@gtjas.com | [Table_Market] | | | 登记编号 S0880515050001 | S0880524030003 | 交易数据 | | 风险提示:长端利率下行;赔付率提升;虚拟银行盈利不及预期。 -26% -8% 10% 27% 45% 63% ...
每日报告回放-2025-03-20
Guotai Junan Securities· 2025-03-20 11:21
| | | 目 录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 市 场 研 究 每 日 报 告 回 放 证 券 研 究 报 告 每日报告回放 | | 行业日报/周报/双周报/月报:有色金属《情绪助燃现货,钴价升势延续》2025-03-15 | 39 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 行业日报/周报/双周报/月报:基础化工《重点化工品价格每日跟踪数据库》2025-03-15 | 40 | | | 行业日报/周报/双周报/月报:基础化工《重点化工品价格每日跟踪数据库》2025-03-15 | 41 | | | 模型助力端侧 落地》 行业日报/周报/双周报/月报:海外科技《晶圆代工格局或生变,轻量级 Gemma3 AI | | | | 2025-03-15 | 41 | | | 行业日报/周报/双周报/月报:基础化工《重点化工品价格每日跟踪数据库》2025-03-15 | 42 | | | 行业事件快评:纺织服装业《生育政策加码,受益标的估值有望修复》2025-03-15 | 42 | | | 行业更新:煤炭《下行风险释放,4 月有望进入上升通道》2025-03-14 | 43 ...
事件点评:锚点通胀向就业,政策强“鹰”向弱“鹰”
Guotai Junan Securities· 2025-03-20 11:18
宏 观 研 究 锚点通胀向就业,政策强"鹰"向弱"鹰" [Table_Authors] 汪浩(分析师) ——2025 年 3 月美联储议息会议点评 本报告导读: 美联储 3 月 FOMC 会议利率动作和前瞻性指引均维持不变,但放缓缩表,以及政策 锚在通胀和就业之间从前者逐步转向后者,向市场传递了积极的信号。但我们认为 其只是从强势"鹰派"走向弱势"鹰派","滞胀"预期下后续大幅降息仍有掣肘, "衰退交易"和"滞胀交易"短期或仍在发酵。 件 点 评 投资要点: 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.20 | | 0755-23976659 | | --- | --- | | | wanghao025053@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | | 黄汝南(分析师) | | | 010-83939779 | | | huangrunan@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523080001 | | | 韩朝辉(分析师) | | | 021-38038433 | | | hanchaohui@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S08 ...
2025年1月财富管理业务月报:固收新发放缓,中长期资金入市持续推进-2025-03-20
Guotai Junan Securities· 2025-03-20 11:18
固收新发放缓,中长期资金入市持续推进 投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Industry] ——2025 年 1 月财富管理业务月报 | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦(分析师) | 王思玥(研究助理) | 吴浩东(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676647 | 021-38031024 | 010-83939780 | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | wangsiyue028676@gtjas.com | wuhaodong029780@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880515050001 | S0880123070151 | S0880524070001 | 本报告导读: 2025 年 1 月,居民增配存款及理财,新发产品规模大幅下滑。产品收益率下行,同 时利率下行至低位。固收产品新发放缓。 投资要点: 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 投资银行业与经纪业《支持科技创新和新质生产 力发展是长期主线》2025.03.16 投资银行业 ...
中国瑞林(603257):新股精要:国内有色行业工程设计领先企业中国瑞林
Guotai Junan Securities· 2025-03-20 11:17
股票研究/[Table_Date] 2025.03.20 新股精要—国内有色行业工程设计领先企 业中国瑞林 [table 泰禾股份( _NewStock] 301665.SZ)发行 4500 万股 泰鸿万立(603210.SH)发行 8510 万股 中国瑞林(603257.SH)是国内有色行业工程设计领先企业,有望受益于行业产能出 清,积极拓展装备集成业务前景广阔。2023 年公司实现营收/归母净利润 28.66/1.48 亿元。截至 2025 年 2 月 28 日,可比公司对应 2023/2024/2025 年平均 PE 分别为 26.14/37.23/34.44 倍。 投资要点: [Table_Report] 相关报告 | 新股上市逐步常态化,申购收益环比提升 | | --- | | 2025.03.16 | | 科技企业 IPO 支持力度再强化,当周新股上市恢 | | 复 2025.03.11 | | 新股精要—国内领先的半导体第三方检测分析实 | | 验室胜科纳米 2025.03.10 | | 新股精要—国内主要的汽车座椅锁供应商之一浙 | | 江华远 2025.03.09 | | 新股精要—华南地区 ...
海尔智家(600690):海尔 2025 生态大会发布点评:AI赋能多品牌共建,海外提供持续增长空间
Guotai Junan Securities· 2025-03-20 09:03
AI 赋能多品牌共建,海外提供持续增长空间 海尔智家(600690) ——海尔 2025 生态大会发布点评 | | ——海尔 | 2025 | 生态大会发布点评 | [Table_Invest] 评级: | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟(分析师) | | 谢丛睿(分析师) | 李汉颖(分析师) | [Table_Target] | 上次评级: | 增持 | | 021-38031654 | | 021-38038437 | 010-83939833 | 目标价格: | | 36.54 | | caiwenjuan024354@gtjas.com xiecongrui@gtjas.com | | | lihanying026725@gtjas.com | | 上次预测: | 36.54 | | 登记编号 S0880521050002 | | S0880523090004 | S0880524110001 | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格: | | 28.14 | 本报告导读: 公司举 ...