Core Insights - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on gold prices, with current prices at $4017.845 per ounce in London and ¥913.26 per gram in Shanghai as of November 12, 2025, driven by rising risk aversion amid declines in major U.S. stock indices [3][4] - The recommended allocation of gold in personal asset portfolios is between 2% to 10%, while institutional allocations can be increased above 10% [6][7] Allocation Strategies - Gold plays a crucial role in diversification and risk hedging within asset allocation. Ray Dalio suggests a reasonable allocation of 15%, while Jeffrey Gundlach proposes up to 25%, citing high inflation and government debt as key factors [4][5] - Historical data shows that a portfolio with 10% gold allocation from 2005 to 2019 achieved a cumulative return of 138.50%, outperforming a non-gold portfolio [6] - For institutional asset management products, the optimal allocation of gold in a traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio averaged 18% from 1972 to 2014, particularly effective in high inflation environments [7] Market Conditions - The report identifies two primary principles for gold allocation: the insufficiency of global safe-haven assets post-Ukrainian crisis and doubts regarding the credibility of the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a reassessment of the dollar's value [8][10] - The report suggests that the third wave of gold opportunities may arise from a potential peak in the overseas AI technology wave, although no immediate signs are present [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant market downturn due to renewed trade conflicts, with the S&P 500 dropping by 2.4% and the Nasdaq by 2.5% [3] - Only three sectors experienced gains, while 21 sectors saw declines, indicating widespread market fear [3] - The semiconductor sector attracted substantial capital inflows, contrasting with the overall outflow from the market [4] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 fell by 2.4%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 2.5% due to trade tensions [3] - The performance of sectors varied, with the Food, Beverage & Tobacco sector increasing by 1.7%, while Durable Goods & Apparel dropped by 8.4% [3] Capital Flows - The estimated capital flow for S&P 500 components was -$40.6 billion, indicating a significant outflow compared to the previous week [4] - The semiconductor products and equipment sector saw a capital inflow of $83.2 million, while the automotive sector experienced a $25.7 million outflow [4] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates a 0.3% upward adjustment in the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for S&P 500 components, with 21 sectors seeing an increase in earnings expectations [5] - The materials sector led the upward revisions with a 1.0% increase, while the energy sector faced a downward adjustment of 0.5% [5]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月12日 港股市场速览 优于大市 应估值压力回调，贸易冲击尚待定价 股价表现：估值压力带动市场整体回调 本周，恒生指数-3.1%（周五夜盘期货进一步-5.0%），恒生综指-3.4%。风 格方面，中盘（恒生中型股-1.8%）＞小盘（恒生小型股-3.2%）＞大盘（恒 生大型股-3.7%）。 主要概念指数普遍回调，表现较优的有：恒生公用事业（+1.3%），恒生高 股息（+0.8%）；跌幅较大的有：恒生生物科技（-7.1%）、恒生互联网（-5.8%）。 国信海外选股策略均有所回撤，表现较弱的是 ROE 策略全天候型（-6.6%）。 14 个行业上涨，16 个行业下跌。涨幅居前的行业有：煤炭（+2.8%）、建材 （+2.7%）、建筑（+2.1%）、电力及公用事业（+1.8%）、综合（+1.3%）； 跌幅居前的行业有：电子（-7.2%）、医药（-6.3%）、电力设备及新能源（-6.1%）、 商贸零售（-6.1%）、农林牧渔（-5.0%）。 估值水平：整体表现较弱，钢铁煤炭亮眼 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）-2.9%至 12.2x； 恒生综指估值-2.6%至 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with domestic beef and raw milk markets expected to experience upward momentum [3]. - The report highlights the support for long-term pig prices due to industry restructuring, and it sees potential recovery for undervalued leading companies in the sector [3]. - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growth area, benefiting from demographic changes [3]. - The report suggests that the feed sector, particularly Haida Group, is likely to benefit from the recovery in aquaculture [3]. - The poultry sector is expected to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from domestic demand recovery [3]. Summary by Sections Swine - The report notes that as of October 10, the price of live pigs is 11.14 yuan/kg, down 7.48% week-on-week and down 38.45% year-on-year [1][13]. - The price of 7kg piglets is approximately 188.57 yuan/head, down 5.04% week-on-week and down 33.33% year-on-year [1][13]. Poultry - For white chickens, prices are slightly increasing, with chick prices at 3.23 yuan/bird, up 1.25% week-on-week, and broiler prices at 6.68 yuan/kg, down 0.30% week-on-week [1][14]. - Yellow chicken prices are stable, with prices for various types around 5.0 to 8.7 yuan/kg, showing a decrease of 9.09% to 3.33% week-on-week [1][14]. Beef - The domestic beef market price is 61.13 yuan/kg, down 0.20% week-on-week but up 21.05% year-on-year [2][16]. - The report anticipates a new round of beef price increases and a reversal in the beef cycle by 2025 [2][3]. Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk is 3.04 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.19% year-on-year [2][16]. - The report suggests that the acceleration of dairy cow liquidation in Q3 may lead to a price turning point by year-end [2][3]. Soybean Meal - The report indicates that soybean meal prices are supported by supply and demand dynamics, with current prices at 3006 yuan/ton, up 0.6% week-on-week [2][16]. - The report notes that the valuation of soybean meal is at historical lows, with potential catalysts from weather or trade developments [2][3]. Corn - The domestic corn price is 2233 yuan/ton, down 5.06% week-on-week but up 3.24% year-on-year [2][16]. - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance is tightening, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [2][3]. Sugar - The report highlights an increase in short-term imports of sugar, with prices in Guangxi at 5760 yuan/ton, down 0.35% week-on-week [2][16]. - Attention is drawn to the rhythm of imports and fluctuations in crude oil prices [2][3]. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Livestock: YouRan MuYe, Modern Farming, China Shengmu, Guangming Meat [3]. - Swine: DeKang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Huazhong Agriculture, Wens Foodstuffs, and others [3]. - Pet sector: Guibao Pet, Reap Bio [3]. - Feed sector: Haida Group [3]. - Poultry: Lihua Co., Yisheng Co., and Shengnong Development [3].

Trade Conflict Overview - In April, the Trump administration initiated a trade war by imposing a 34% tariff on Chinese goods, which escalated to 125% shortly after[2] - By May 12, a temporary agreement was reached, resulting in the cancellation of 91% of the tariffs imposed by the U.S. and a 90-day suspension of 24% of the tariffs[2] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of tariffs, the U.S. dollar index fell significantly, dropping over 2% within two trading days and reaching a three-year low of 97.92 by the end of April[18] - Gold prices surged during the same period, reflecting increased global risk aversion, while major commodities like copper saw significant declines, with a 6.26% drop shortly after the tariffs were announced[18][19] Bond Market Insights - The bond market experienced a downward trend, with yields falling by 18 basis points (BP) during the trade conflict in April[4] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.63% after the initial tariff announcements, indicating a strong market reaction to the trade tensions[27] Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to rebound in October, driven by anticipated monetary policy easing due to economic pressures observed in July and August[4] - The current 10-1 year yield spread of 40 BP suggests a neutral economic outlook, indicating limited upward pressure on long-term yields[4] Risk Factors - Potential volatility in overseas markets and uncertainties in international policies pose risks to the economic outlook[4][35]

Core Insights - The report indicates that despite the recent escalation in trade tensions, the medium-term outlook for the A-share market remains positive, with a focus on a style rebalancing towards traditional value sectors in Q4, such as real estate, brokerage, and consumer stocks [3][4][6]. Impact of Trade Tensions - The report highlights that the recent threats of tariffs from the U.S. have led to significant declines in major U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones falling by 878.82 points (1.90%), the S&P 500 down by 182.60 points (2.71%), and the Nasdaq dropping by 820.20 points (3.56%) on October 10 [3][4]. - The report notes that Trump's statements regarding potential tariffs, including a proposed 10% baseline tariff on all imports and up to 60% on goods from China, have heightened concerns about global trade tensions and inflation [4]. A-share Market Resilience - The report references past instances where A-shares experienced significant declines due to trade tensions, such as a 7.34% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index in April 2025, but subsequently rebounded due to supportive domestic monetary policies [5][6]. - It emphasizes that the current policy environment remains conducive to a bullish outlook for A-shares, with expectations for policy measures to counteract price declines [5]. Style Rebalancing in Q4 - The report observes a notable shift from technology stocks to value stocks in the A-share market, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices falling by 5.61% and 4.55%, respectively, while real estate and brokerage indices saw slight increases [6]. - Historical comparisons are made to previous market phases, indicating that increased volatility often accompanies a shift back to value stocks, as seen in the second phase of the 1999 bull market and during periods of heightened volatility in 2020 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to resonate positively [3]. - The report highlights the support for long-term pig prices due to industry restructuring, and it sees potential recovery for undervalued leading companies in the pig farming sector [3]. - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growing industry benefiting from demographic changes [3]. - The report anticipates a recovery in aquaculture, benefiting companies like Haida Group [3]. - The poultry sector is expected to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from improved domestic demand [3]. Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices have started to rise, with the average market price for beef at 61.13 yuan/kg as of October 10, 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 21.05% [2]. - The report expects a significant acceleration in raw milk prices by the end of the year, with the average price at 3.04 yuan/kg [2]. Swine - The report notes a decrease in pig prices to 11.14 yuan/kg, down 7.48% week-on-week and 38.45% year-on-year, but anticipates a long-term price stabilization due to industry restructuring [1][3]. Poultry - The report indicates a slight increase in supply for white chickens, with prices at 6.68 yuan/kg, down 0.30% week-on-week [1]. - Yellow chicken prices are expected to benefit from improved domestic demand, with prices for various types of yellow chicken ranging from 5.00 to 8.70 yuan/kg [1]. Feed and Ingredients - Soybean meal prices are supported by supply-demand dynamics, with current prices at 3006 yuan/ton, up 0.6% week-on-week [2]. - Corn prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, with current prices at 2233 yuan/ton, down 5.06% week-on-week but up 3.24% year-on-year [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the livestock, pig, poultry, pet, and feed sectors, including YouRan Agriculture, MuYuan Co., and HaiDa Group [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][9]. Core Views - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a significant price increase in refrigerants, driven by supply constraints and rising demand from both domestic and international markets [2][5][8]. - The transition to liquid cooling technologies in data centers is expected to boost the demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, indicating a positive outlook for companies involved in this sector [3][6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of September 30, the fluorochemical index rose by 7.61% compared to the end of August, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and the CSI 300 [1][16]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - The long-term contract prices for R32 and R410A have increased by 18.97% and 7.26% respectively in Q4, reflecting a strong market sentiment [1][23]. - R32's external trade demand is growing due to environmental regulations, with prices reaching 62,000 CNY/ton for exports and 61,000-63,000 CNY/ton for domestic sales [2][25]. 3. Production and Export Data - Domestic air conditioning production is expected to adjust upwards in Q4 2025, despite a decline in September-October due to high inventory levels from the previous year [3][4]. - The export of refrigerants like R32 has shown a 19% increase year-on-year, while R22 exports have decreased by 33% due to quota reductions [33][4]. 4. Liquid Cooling Demand - The shift towards liquid cooling in data centers is anticipated to significantly increase the demand for fluorinated liquids, with the market expected to exceed 100 billion CNY by 2027 [6][67]. - Companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted as key players benefiting from this trend [3][69]. 5. Regulatory Environment - China's commitment to the Montreal Protocol includes significant reductions in HCFCs and HFCs, which will impact the production quotas for refrigerants like R22 and R32 [70][73]. - The report emphasizes that the tightening of refrigerant quotas will support long-term price increases and profitability for leading companies in the fluorochemical sector [8][73].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a reasonable valuation range of 40.35 to 45.39 CNY per share [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading thermal management platform benefiting from the recovery in consumer electronics demand and the explosive growth in AI server cooling needs, with expansion into humanoid robot dexterous hands and cooling solutions opening up greater growth potential [3][4]. - The company has established deep ties with major domestic and international clients across various sectors, including consumer electronics, data centers, and new energy vehicles [1][14]. - The AI server cooling technology is positioned to benefit significantly from the anticipated surge in demand for liquid cooling solutions in data centers, with the global liquid cooling market projected to grow from 2.84 billion USD in 2025 to 21.14 billion USD by 2032, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.21% [2][61]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is recognized as a leading provider of thermal management and electromagnetic shielding solutions, with a strong focus on innovation and technology [13][14]. - Established in 1993, the company has developed a robust client base, including major players like Huawei, Microsoft, and BYD, and has manufacturing bases in multiple locations [14][40]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a projected increase from 43.46 billion CNY in 2023 to 99.37 billion CNY by 2027, representing a CAGR of 23.1% [4][25]. - Net profit is expected to rise significantly, from 1.03 billion CNY in 2023 to 8.70 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable increase of 104.3% in 2025 [4][25]. Market Trends - The demand for AI servers and related cooling technologies is expected to drive substantial growth, with the AI server market projected to capture nearly 70% of the overall server market by 2028 [51][64]. - The liquid cooling market is anticipated to experience rapid growth, with the Chinese market expected to reach 2.37 billion USD in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 46.8% from 2024 to 2029 [61]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the recovery in consumer electronics and the growth in AI server cooling, with a forecasted net profit of 3.86 billion CNY in 2025, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 54 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The North Exchange's stock trading activity remains active, with a total of 277 listed companies and a total market capitalization of 868.79 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [11][10] - The North Exchange 50 index has a PE-TTM of 50.90 times, ranking in the 88.25th percentile over the past two years, while the PB-MRQ is 13.18 times, in the 95.46th percentile [24][25] - The report highlights a mixed performance across industries, with the only rising sector being construction materials, while defense, agriculture, social services, food and beverage, and telecommunications sectors saw declines [32][29] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The North Exchange's trading volume for September was 26.028 billion shares, with a transaction value of 615.638 billion yuan, showing a 0.2% increase in volume but a 4.1% decrease in value compared to the previous month [10][15] - The average daily margin balance reached 7.673 billion yuan, an increase of 11.28% month-on-month, with peak margin balances nearing 8 billion yuan [21][21] Valuation - As of September 30, 2025, the North Exchange 50 index's PE-TTM is 50.90 times, and the PB-MRQ is 13.18 times, indicating high valuation levels compared to historical data [24][25] - The highest median PE among industries is in light manufacturing at 104 times, followed by computer and construction materials at 98 and 88 times respectively [25][28] Industry Performance - The North Exchange's dual indices showed a downward trend in September, with the specialized index down 4.44% and the North Exchange 50 down 2.90% [29][30] - The only sector that saw an increase was construction materials, while significant declines were noted in defense, agriculture, social services, food and beverage, and telecommunications [32][29] New Listings - Three new companies were listed this month: Sanxie Electric (920100.BJ), Jinhua New Materials (920015.BJ), and Shichang Co., Ltd. (920022.BJ) [11][3] - The total number of listed companies on the North Exchange is now 277, with a total market capitalization of 868.79 billion yuan [11][10]