Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][27][29] Core Views - The company has achieved a revenue of 77.322 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.41%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 11.24% to 1.404 billion yuan [1][9] - The subsidiary, H3C, benefited from the growth in AI demand, with its revenue increasing by 48.07% to 59.623 billion yuan in the same period. Domestic enterprise revenue grew by 62.55%, while international business revenue surged by 83.99% [1][9] - The company is focusing on the "Computing Power x Connectivity" strategy, launching new AI-driven products and solutions to meet industry demands [3][27] Financial Performance - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 13.72%, down 3.87 percentage points year-on-year. The third quarter gross margin was 11.32%, reflecting a decline due to the release of low-margin customized internet servers [2][14] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 2.23%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points year-on-year, while the third quarter net profit margin was 1.46%, showing a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [2][14] - The company has optimized its organizational structure and improved operational efficiency, resulting in a decrease in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios [2][14] Revenue Forecast - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are as follows: 18.2 billion yuan in 2025, 23.6 billion yuan in 2026, and 29.3 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 41, 31, and 25 [27][29] - The expected revenue for 2025 is 97.148 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 22.9% [4][22] Subsidiary Performance - H3C's revenue is projected to reach 71.439 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit margin of 5% [26]

Core Views - The report emphasizes that the metal industry is expected to see a rise in prices and profitability due to supply-demand dynamics and interest rate cuts, with a focus on industrial metals like copper and aluminum [5][6][10]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are projected to rise as the global copper market faces a supply shortage of approximately 1% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, primarily due to the anticipated recovery of the Grasberg and Panama copper mines [5][23]. - The report notes that the Grasberg copper mine's production cut has led to a significant upward adjustment in copper price expectations, with a potential price increase from 79,000 CNY/ton to 82,000-83,000 CNY/ton [21][24]. - Aluminum profitability is expected to increase further, with China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization reaching 98%, indicating a tight supply-demand balance that could lead to price surges if demand exceeds expectations [5][30]. Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by factors such as weakening U.S. non-farm data, manageable inflation, and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower interest rates further [6][10]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has implemented an export quota system that could create a supply-demand gap of over 10% in the global cobalt market [7]. - The lithium industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle, with demand for energy storage batteries significantly exceeding previous forecasts, leading to a potential supply shortage if production does not keep pace [8]. Minor Metals - The strategic importance of rare earth metals is highlighted, with China maintaining a dominant position in global production and supply, which is expected to strengthen prices further [10]. - Tungsten prices may rise due to recovering overseas demand and relaxed export controls, while antimony prices are also expected to increase following recent export policy adjustments [11][12]. Uranium - The demand for uranium is projected to increase alongside the growth of nuclear power generation in China, with expectations of a significant rise in nuclear capacity by 2035 [13]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests a selection of stocks across various metal sectors, including copper, aluminum, precious metals, energy metals, and minor metals, indicating a diversified investment strategy [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][21]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue growth of 12.42% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, but its net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.22% [1][9]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to underperformance in some overseas pipeline and storage projects, leading to a decrease in gross profit [1][9]. - The company has maintained a high level of new contract signings, with a total of 992.16 billion yuan in new contracts in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.25% [3][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue reached 575.29 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.23 billion yuan [1][9]. - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 212.42 billion yuan, a 12.84% increase year-on-year, while net profit dropped to 0.53 billion yuan, down 49.19% [1][9]. Business Segments - The core business segments include oil and gas field surface engineering, oil and gas storage and transportation engineering, and refining and chemical engineering, which accounted for 36.59%, 25.69%, and 30.27% of revenue respectively in 2024 [2][12]. - Emerging businesses and future industries contributed 28.23% to new contract signings in the first three quarters of 2025 [3][17]. Contract Signings - The company signed new contracts worth 992.16 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with domestic contracts accounting for 74.54% and international contracts 25.46% [3][17]. - By professional field, the new contracts included 242.18 billion yuan for oil and gas field surface engineering, 247.50 billion yuan for pipeline and storage engineering, and 206.56 billion yuan for refining and chemical engineering [3][17]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 899.92 billion yuan, 944.92 billion yuan, and 982.97 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 7.33 billion yuan, 8.23 billion yuan, and 8.50 billion yuan [4][21]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.13 yuan, 0.15 yuan, and 0.15 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28.64, 25.52, and 24.70 [4][21].

Group 1: Lithium Battery Materials - Lithium battery materials are experiencing a comprehensive price increase, with significant profit growth expected for related companies. As of November 13, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 131,000 CNY/ton, up approximately 110% from early October, with the highest price exceeding 142,000 CNY/ton [1][66] - The average price of electrolytes increased to 25,700 CNY/ton, a rise of 7,000 CNY/ton or 40% since early October. VC additives averaged 87,500 CNY/ton, up 4,100 CNY/ton or about 90% [1][66] - The average price of lithium iron phosphate was 36,900 CNY/ton, reflecting a 10% increase since early October, while the average price of wet separators rose to 0.78 CNY/sq.m, a 5% increase [1][66] Group 2: Energy Storage Systems - The cumulative bidding scale for domestic energy storage systems reached 166.3 GWh from January to October, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 172%. The average price for a 4-hour energy storage system is 0.52 CNY/Wh, up 0.06 CNY/Wh from the previous period [2][90] - New energy storage installations totaled 85.5 GWh from January to October, a year-on-year increase of 71%. The total scale of newly registered energy storage projects in October exceeded 128.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 224% [2][90] Group 3: AI Data Center Capital Expenditure - Major internet companies are increasing capital expenditures to meet the explosive demand for AI and cloud computing. Google raised its 2025 capital expenditure guidance to between 91 billion and 93 billion USD, while Meta increased its guidance to 70 billion to 72 billion USD [3][23] - OpenAI announced plans for the "Stargate" data center, with a planned capacity exceeding 8 GW and an expected investment of over 450 billion USD over the next three years [3][23] - The AIDC power equipment industry is expected to benefit from this capital expenditure expansion, with key companies to watch including Jinpan Technology, Xinte Electric, and Igor [3][24] Group 4: Power Equipment Industry - The power equipment sector is showing signs of recovery, with increased demand for transformers and power supply equipment driven by the high growth in AIDC. The bidding for smart meters by the State Grid has also seen a significant rebound in prices [3][35] - The third round of bidding for metering equipment by the State Grid in November saw a total quantity of 19.08 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 41%, but the bid amount was approximately 5.53 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 34% [3][36] - The average price of smart meters is expected to improve, enhancing the profitability and performance elasticity of related companies [3][36] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include leading firms in the lithium battery industry such as CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Zhongxin Innovation, as well as key players in the energy storage sector like Sungrow Power and Yiwei Lithium Energy [1][2] - The report suggests monitoring the recovery of the power equipment sector in the fourth quarter, the progress in green methanol industry layouts, and the impact of rising lithium battery material prices on profitability [4]

Financial Data Overview - In October, new social financing (社融) amounted to CNY 815 billion, significantly lower than the expected CNY 1.53 trillion[2] - New RMB loans totaled CNY 220 billion, falling short of the anticipated CNY 460 billion[2] - M2 money supply grew by 8.2% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 8.0%[2] Economic Trends - The growth rate of social financing declined to 8.5%, indicating overall insufficient financing demand[5] - Government bond issuance decreased significantly, contributing to a year-on-year reduction of CNY 5.97 trillion in social financing[5] - Non-bank deposits increased by CNY 770 billion year-on-year, reflecting a shift of funds towards financial markets[5] Credit Market Insights - Total new credit under a broad definition was CNY 220 billion, a year-on-year decrease of CNY 280 billion[7] - The structure of corporate loans worsened, with short-term loans showing a notable decline[11] - Resident loans decreased by CNY 360 billion, indicating weak consumer and housing demand[13] Future Outlook - The likelihood of interest rate cuts in Q4 is low due to ongoing pressure on banks' net interest margins[6] - Focus will shift towards fiscal policy to stimulate demand, with expectations for increased government spending[6] - Continued monitoring of fiscal expenditure pace is essential to support economic recovery[6]

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The core conclusion indicates that the bull market initiated in 2024 is not over, transitioning into its second phase, with the driving force shifting from sentiment to fundamentals [6] - Technology is identified as the main theme, with a focus on AI glasses, robotics, intelligent driving, AI programming, and AI in life sciences [6][7] - The bull market is characterized by structural features, with "small assets" outperforming "old assets," and the market is currently in the explosive phase of the bull market [6][7] Group 2: Industry and Company Analysis - The restaurant industry is transitioning from extensive expansion to stable growth, with online channels becoming increasingly important [8][9] - Different restaurant formats have varying adaptability to delivery services, with beverages and fast food showing the highest adaptability [8][9] - A balanced approach between dine-in and delivery is crucial for restaurant brands to maintain brand recognition and profitability [10] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "outperform the market" rating for the restaurant industry, emphasizing the need for brands to adapt to consumer trends and optimize their cost-benefit ratios [11] - Specific recommendations include companies like Xiaocaiyuan, Guoquan, and Haidilao, while also suggesting attention to Meituan-W as a platform leader [11] Group 4: Company Financial Performance - Beike-W reported a 2% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a total GTV of 736.7 billion RMB [15] - The adjusted net profit for Beike-W decreased by 28% year-on-year, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [15][16] - Yonyou Network's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.584 billion RMB, a 2.7% decline year-on-year, but showed a positive growth trend in Q3 [19][20]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月13日 2026 年 A 股策略展望 "小登"时代，牛途仍在 核心结论：①始于 24 年"924"行情的牛市还未结束，当前进入第二阶段， 驱动力从情绪面转向基本面。②全年维度，科技是主线，演绎路径从算力转 向应用，关注 AI 眼镜、机器人、智驾、AI 编程、AI+生命科学等方向。③牛 市中期有风格轮动，阶段性关注前期滞涨的地产、券商、白酒消费。老红利 有新逻辑，维持底仓配置敞口。 牛途仍在，驱动力转向基本面。完整的牛市三阶段包括孕育期、爆发期和疯 狂期，本轮牛市与 519 行情更相似，目前处于爆发期。市场结构性特征明显， "小登资产"碾压"老登"资产。2026 年牛市驱动力从情绪面转向基本面， 上市企业 ROE 稳步回升，合同负债同比修复，盈利预期持续上修。微观流动 性仍有支撑：1）国内方面，"花存款"趋势延续，中长期定存到期进一步 加速存款搬家进程；2）海外方面，美国中期选举仍存变数，选区重划强博 弈预示后续政治波动加大，美联储预防式降息下半场驱动全球资金流向新兴 市场风险资产。 科技是主线，拥抱"小登"时代。历史上牛市都有主线，从"煤飞色舞"、 "移动互联"到"能源革命" ...

Group 1 - The current bull market, which began with the "924" rally in 2024, is still ongoing and has entered its second phase, shifting from sentiment-driven to fundamentals-driven [2][6][9] - Technology is the main theme for 2026, with a focus on applications such as AI glasses, robotics, intelligent driving, AI programming, and AI in life sciences [2][4][71] - The market is experiencing style rotation, with attention on previously lagging sectors like real estate, brokerage, and liquor consumption, suggesting a new logic for traditional dividend stocks [2][4][14] Group 2 - The bull market is characterized by three phases: nurturing, explosive, and frenzied, with the current phase being explosive, similar to the "519" market [5][6][9] - The recovery of corporate ROE and contract liabilities, along with upward revisions in profit expectations, indicate a solidifying fundamental backdrop for the market [2][10][11] - The trend of "deposit migration" continues, with a shift from long-term deposits to more liquid forms, supporting micro liquidity in the market [27][29][30] Group 3 - The report highlights the significant contribution of major technology stocks to the overall market performance, with 15 large-cap tech stocks accounting for a 10% increase in the total A-share market [2][67] - The "small登" assets have significantly outperformed "old登" assets, with a 189% increase in the "small登" stock portfolio since 2025, compared to just 2% for "old登" stocks [23][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of the "Scaling Law" in AI development, indicating a robust demand for computational power and applications in the tech sector [101][105]

Group 1 - The current bull market is in its second phase, transitioning from emotional drivers to fundamental ones, with a focus on technology as the main theme [1][11][19] - The bull market is characterized by a significant structural differentiation between "small-cap" and "large-cap" assets, with "small-cap" stocks outperforming [30][21] - The technology sector is expected to lead the market, with specific attention on AI applications, robotics, smart driving, and AI in life sciences [2][57][68] Group 2 - The report highlights that the bull market's main line is technology, with significant contributions from major tech companies, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors [2][63] - Historical bull markets have shown that the main line often correlates with industry cycles, where sectors with high revenue growth tend to outperform [58][60] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the differentiation between "old economy" and "new economy" stocks, with a recommendation to maintain exposure to dividend-paying assets amidst a backdrop of financial asset scarcity [2][30][10] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of macroeconomic policies, including fiscal and monetary measures, on market performance, particularly in relation to the "14th Five-Year Plan" and its focus on high-quality development and technological self-reliance [17][18] - The analysis indicates that the market's valuation structure is healthier compared to previous bull markets, with a lower percentage of stocks trading at high price-to-book ratios [21][25] - The report notes that the trend of "deposit migration" is ongoing, with a shift in funds towards higher-yielding assets as traditional deposit rates decline [35][39]

Core Insights - The report indicates that liquidity is stabilizing, but there are emerging concerns regarding risk appetite, particularly influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and the performance of technology giants [1][3][4]. Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a rebound following an agreement between the Democratic and Republican parties to resolve the government shutdown, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.54% [2]. - Bitcoin's performance is highlighted as a leading indicator for the stock market, with its inability to break above the MA250 suggesting potential market peaks [2][3]. Risk Appetite Dynamics - Current market behavior reflects a hierarchy of risk appetite: Bitcoin > U.S. stocks > Gold, with recent performance showing Bitcoin < U.S. stocks < Gold [3]. - The decline in risk appetite is attributed to two main factors: uncertainty in macroeconomic data due to the government shutdown and doubts regarding the sustainability of capital expenditures in AI by major tech companies [3]. Valuation Insights - The report reaffirms that U.S. stock valuations are not overly expensive, estimating the S&P 500's valuation center at 6800-6900, with potential pullbacks likely to remain within 10% [4]. - The report suggests that if AI-related capital expenditures decline significantly, it could lead to a more substantial credit contraction, with a static lower limit for the S&P 500 around 5600 [4]. Hong Kong Market Independence - The Hong Kong stock market is showing increasing independence from external market influences, which may enhance its self-reinforcing cycle [5].