Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3]. Core Insights - The UK government has restarted subsidies for new energy vehicles and is supporting the construction of charging infrastructure, with a total investment plan of £63 million (approximately 600 million RMB) announced on July 13 [4]. - The GGII data indicates that in the first half of 2025, China's energy storage system and battery shipments are expected to continue to achieve high year-on-year growth, with emerging markets likely becoming significant export destinations for the energy storage industry [2][5]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - In the first half of 2025, cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in the UK reached 332,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33%. The cumulative sales in nine European countries reached 1.3544 million units, up 26% year-on-year [4]. - The UK government announced a subsidy policy worth £650 million (approximately 6.2 billion RMB) to support the purchase of vehicles priced below £37,000 (approximately 355,000 RMB), effective from July 16, 2025, until the 2028-2029 fiscal year [4]. Energy Storage - According to GGII data, the shipment volume of energy storage systems is expected to reach 110 GWh in the first half of 2025, nearly matching the total for the entire year of 2024, with a year-on-year increase expected [5][7]. - The shipment volume of energy storage batteries in the first half of 2025 is projected to be 265 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 128%, with an expected total shipment of over 500 GWh for the entire year, reflecting a growth rate of nearly 50% [7][11]. Market Opportunities - Emerging markets are anticipated to become important export destinations for Chinese energy storage companies, with significant growth in energy storage installations expected in regions such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America [15][16]. - GGII forecasts that energy storage installations in Australia will reach 7 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 192%, while combined installations in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Latin America, and Africa are expected to reach 37 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 256% [16]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the battery segment include CATL and Yiwei Lithium Energy; in the materials and equipment segment, recommended companies include Keda Li, Zhongwei Co., Rongbai Technology, and Dangsheng Technology; in the charging pile segment, Shenghong Co. is recommended [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][14]. Core Views - The company has released a strong mid-year performance forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 40-45 million yuan, a significant increase from a loss of 35.0024 million yuan in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 214.28% to 228.56% [3][4]. - The company plans to raise no more than 718 million yuan through a private placement to a major shareholder, which will be used to replenish working capital and repay bank loans [3][12]. - The increase in performance is attributed to cost reduction efforts, increased waste disposal volumes, and rising market prices for industrial-grade mixed oil due to EU policy impacts [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 40-45 million yuan for mid-2025, compared to a loss of 35.0024 million yuan in the previous year, indicating a year-on-year growth of 214.28% to 228.56% [3][4]. - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be 36-41 million yuan, up from 162.43 thousand yuan last year, reflecting a growth of 2116.34% to 2424.16% [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The price of industrial-grade mixed oil (UCO) has reached a two-year high, driven by increased domestic demand and the upcoming shipping season, with prices touching 7600 yuan/ton in July 2025 [5][6]. - The domestic SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) trial has begun, indicating a potential increase in demand for UCO, which may enhance its scarcity in the market [6]. Capital Raising and Shareholder Confidence - The company plans to issue shares to Shandong High-speed Industrial Investment Co., Ltd., with a subscription price of 5.13 yuan per share, raising up to 718 million yuan [12][13]. - The full cash subscription by the major shareholder reflects confidence in the company's future prospects and is expected to optimize the company's financial structure and reduce financial costs [13]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company maintains its earnings forecast, projecting net profits of 88 million yuan, 125 million yuan, and 145 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 576.3%, 41.3%, and 16.1% [14].

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月16日 特步国际（01368.HK） 上半年主品牌流水增长中单位数，索康尼增长超 30% 公司研究·海外公司快评 纺织服饰·服装家纺 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 丁诗洁 0755-81981391 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980520040004 证券分析师： 刘佳琪 010-88005446 liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523070003 事项： 公司公告：2025 年 7 月 16 日，公司发布 2025 年第二季度及上半年营运状况，第二季度度特步主品牌线上 线下全渠道零售销售流水同比增长低单位数，零售折扣 7.0-7.5 折；索康尼品牌线上线下全渠道零售销售 流水同比增长超过 20%。上半年主品牌全渠道零售销售流水同比增长中单位数，渠道库销比 4.0-4.5 个月； 索康尼品牌线上线下全渠道零售销售流水同比增长超过 30%。 国信纺服观点： 1、第二季度特步主品牌、索康尼流水增长环比降速，上半年整体表现符合全年指引趋势，折扣和库存保 持稳定，管理层维持全年指引； 2、风险提示：消 ...

政府债周报 广义赤字进度稳步前进 政府债净融资第 28 周（7/7-7/13）3034 亿，第 29 周（7/14-7/20）2084 亿。截至第 28 周（7/7-7/13）累计 8.2 万亿，超出去年同期 4.4 万亿， 主要是置换隐债专项债错位和国债发行较快。 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 28 周（7/7-7/13）2716 亿，第 29 周 （7/14-7/20）2470 亿。截至第 28 周（7/7-7/13）广义赤字累计 6.5 万 亿，进度 54.5%。 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月16日 国债第 28 周（7/7-7/13）净融资 1931 亿，第 29 周（7/14-7/20）579 亿。截至第 28 周（7/7-7/13）累计 3.8 万亿，进度 56.7%。 地方债净融资第 28 周（7/7-7/13）1102 亿，第 29 周（7/14-7/20）1505 亿。截至第 28 周（7/7-7/13）累计 4.5 万亿，超出去年同期 2.7 万亿。 新增一般债第 28 周（7/7-7/13）145 亿，第 29 周（7/14-7/20）276 亿。 截至第 28 周（7/7-7/1 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月16日 统计局 2025 年 1-6 月房地产数据点评 地产基本面继续磨底，一线城市房价边际下行 优于大市 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | | 房地产  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 任鹤 | 010-88005315 | renhe@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040006 | | 证券分析师： | 王粤雷 | 0755-81981019 | wangyuelei@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520030001 | | 证券分析师： | 王静 | 021-60893314 | wangjing20@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522100002 | 事项： 2025 年 7 月 15 日，统计局公布 1-6 月房地产投资和销售数据。2025 年 1-6 月，全国房地产开发投资 46658 亿元，同比下降 11.2%；房屋新开工面积 30364 万平方米，下降 20.0%；房屋竣工面积 22567 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月16日 $\Delta$V${}_{\rm{i}}$, $\Delta$V${}_{\rm{i}}$, $\Delta$V${}_{\rm{i}}$, $\Delta$V${}_{\rm{i}}$, $\Delta$V${}_{\rm{i}}$, $\Delta$V${}_{\rm{i}}$, $\Delta$V${}_{\rm{i}}$, $\Delta$V${}_{\rm{i}}$, $\Delta$V${}_{\rm{i}}$, $\Delta$V${}_{\rm{i}}$, $\Delta$V${}_{\rm{i}}$, $\Delta$V${}_{\rm{i}}$, $\Delta$V${}_{\rm{i}}$, $\Delta$V${}_{\rm{i}}$, $\Delta$V${}_{\rm{i}}$, $\Delta$V${}_{\rm{i}}$, \(\Delta 市场表现：今日(20250716) 规模指数中中证 2000 指数表现较好，板块指数 中科创 100 指数表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 成长指数表现较好。汽车、 消费者服务、医药、轻工制造、纺 ...

|  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 | |  | 纺织服饰·服装家纺 | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 事项： 7 月 15 日，公司公告第二季度及上半年零售表现，2025 第二季度，安踏主品牌录得低单位数正增长，FILA 录得中单位数正增长，其他品牌录得 50-55%正增长；上半年，安踏主品牌录得中单位数正增长，FILA 录 得高单位数正增长，其他品牌录得 60-65%正增长。 国信纺服观点： 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月16日 安踏体育（02020.HK） 上半年集团流水增长双位数，折扣库存健康可控 1、2025 第二季度：安踏集团整体双位数增长，其中 FILA、其他品牌表现较好，安踏品牌低单 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月16日 美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 美国通胀温和上涨 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 季家辉 | 021-61761056 | jijiahui@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522010002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 7 月 15 日，美国劳工统计局发布 6 月 CPI 通胀数据：环比来看，整体 CPI 上涨 0.3%，核心 CPI 上涨 0.2%，分别较上月回升 0.2 和 0.1 个百分点。同比来看，整体 CPI 上涨 2.7%，核心 CPI 上涨 2.9%， 较上月回升 0.3 和 0.1 个百分点。 通胀走势：核心 CPI 通胀企稳 能源价格大幅反弹。6 月 CPI ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The report constructs the Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index by synthesizing the price states of four major asset classes (stocks, bonds, commodities, and exchange rates) in the Chinese capital market using the diffusion index method. The index reflects the market's risk - off state, considering only the direction of asset price changes rather than the amplitude [1][11][12]. - The Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index has an obvious negative correlation with the macro - economic fundamentals. Economic fundamentals change first, followed by changes in the risk - aversion state of the capital market [2]. - The change in the week - on - week increase or decrease of the Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index leads the change of the fixed - base diffusion index, and it can be used to judge the possible inflection points of the overall index [38]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Construction of Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index - **Definition**: The report divides the assets in the capital market into risk assets and risk - aversion assets. It uses the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index to represent stock prices, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate for bond prices, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index for commodity prices, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate for the exchange - rate market. The index is used to measure the market's risk pricing [11]. - **Compilation Method**: The report uses the diffusion index method to synthesize the price states of the four asset classes. It selects the weekly frequency for processing, starting from the first week of 2012 with an initial index value of 100. The rising index indicates a risk - off state in the capital market, and the falling index indicates a risk - on state [12]. 3.2 Relationship between Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index and Economic Fundamentals - **Relationship with Guoxin Macro - high - frequency Diffusion Index**: The Guoxin Macro - high - frequency Diffusion Index is a high - frequency tracking indicator for macro - economic growth. It uses seven high - frequency indicators to track representative industries weekly. Both the weekly and monthly comparisons show that the Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index has a negative correlation with the macro - economic fundamentals, and the macro - economic fundamentals lead the change of the risk - aversion index [22][23][30]. - **Relationship with GDP**: The Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index has a weak correlation with the constant - price quarterly year - on - year GDP, and a certain negative correlation with the current - price quarterly year - on - year GDP and the quarterly year - on - year GDP deflator. However, there are periods of deviation, indicating that the economic fundamentals lead the change of the risk - aversion index [36][37]. 3.3 Technical Analysis of Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index - The week - on - week increase or decrease of the Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index is a more sensitive indicator than the fixed - base index. By observing its change and the moving average, it is possible to judge the possible inflection points of the fixed - base index. The leading sensitivity is more significant on a monthly frequency [38][41].

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月16日 伊利股份（600887.SH） 优于大市 平台化的乳企龙头，引领行业高质量转型 发展行稳致远，典型的长久期资产。随着经济步入中低速增长区间，依赖 城镇化、人口等驱动增长的食品饮料行业，投资范式也逐步从成长定价， 转向股息率定价，而居民生活方式的变化，又考验各细分品类（白酒、 啤酒、乳品、饮料等）的久期。从海外经验看，乳制品属于优质高蛋白， 且随着餐饮效率化意识觉醒、消费习惯变化和技术进步，奶酪、黄油、 奶粉等深加工产品具备长期增长潜力，乳制品行业被认为是长久期资 产。伊利股份作为我国乳制品企业龙头，拥有深厚的渠道和消费者基础， 2021 年收入站稳千亿后，发展战略由份额优先转向利润优先，加强对成 人粉等高附加值产品研发推广，盈利能力逐步提升，同时承诺维持 70% 以上的分红比例，我们认为伊利股份是典型的股息率定价资产。 乳制品需求平稳复苏中，供需拐点或将到来。2020 年后居民健康意识提高， 需求呈现脉冲式增长，其中白奶相对于乳饮料、酸奶等景气度更高，低温奶 渗透率亦在逐步提升，这也带来了上游牧场产能的新一轮扩张。而 2023 年 后，需求呈现弱复苏，行业出现供过于求 ...