证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 2025年12月30日 固收+系列报告之九 公募 REITs2026 年投资展望：攻守之道与价值掘金 市场复盘：自首批公募 REITs 2021 年上市以来，我国公募 REITs 一级认购 倍数呈现显著波动走势，整体波动由产品供给稀缺性、市场情绪及资产类型 收益预期共同驱动。二级市场收益表现介于沪深 300 与中证全债之间，与中 证转债的股债混合属性形成互补，不同年份收益位次因底层资产、利率、政 策及市场环境差异而显著分化。从长期特征看，REITs 波动率低于沪深 300 和中证转债，高于中证全债，且与其他资产收益相关度低，兼具债性稳定与 股性弹性，适合平衡组合波动。 机构配置：当前公募 REITs 流通盘的持有主体高度集中，机构投资者主导， 券商自营是绝对主力，占比达 51.3%；其次是保险资金（19.9%）和产业资本 （13.6%），以上三类机构投资者合计占比超 84%；私募基金（5.5%）、信托 （3.6%）、其他资管（3.7%）等占比相对较低，个人投资者、公募基金、券 商资管、银行理财的持有比例均不足 1%。不同类型公募 REITs 的流通盘持有 人结构呈现显 ...

| 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-29 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3965.27 | 13537.09 | 4639.37 | 14549.37 | 3920.98 | 1346.31 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.04 | -0.49 | -0.38 | -0.16 | -0.34 | 0.03 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 9038.19 | 12355.17 | 4826.13 | 4629.60 | 5379.66 | 584.88 | $$\overline{{{\prod_{i\in\mathbb{R}}}}}\frac{\Delta}{\Delta}\pm\overline{{{\prod_{i\in\mathbb{R}}}}}$$ (1998) (200) 宏观与策略 固 定 收 益 快 评 : 可 交 换 私 募 债 跟 踪 - 私 募 EB 每 周 跟 踪 （2025122 ...

固收+系列报告之九 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 2025年12月30日 公募 REITs2026 年投资展望：攻守之道与价值掘金 市场复盘：自首批公募 REITs 2021 年上市以来，我国公募 REITs 一级认购 倍数呈现显著波动走势，整体波动由产品供给稀缺性、市场情绪及资产类型 收益预期共同驱动。二级市场收益表现介于沪深 300 与中证全债之间，与中 证转债的股债混合属性形成互补，不同年份收益位次因底层资产、利率、政 策及市场环境差异而显著分化。从长期特征看，REITs 波动率低于沪深 300 和中证转债，高于中证全债，且与其他资产收益相关度低，兼具债性稳定与 股性弹性，适合平衡组合波动。 机构配置：当前公募 REITs 流通盘的持有主体高度集中，机构投资者主导， 券商自营是绝对主力，占比达 51.3%；其次是保险资金（19.9%）和产业资本 （13.6%），以上三类机构投资者合计占比超 84%；私募基金（5.5%）、信托 （3.6%）、其他资管（3.7%）等占比相对较低，个人投资者、公募基金、券 商资管、银行理财的持有比例均不足 1%。不同类型公募 REITs 的流通盘持有 人结构呈现显 ...

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report highlights the significance of researching next-generation innovative drugs for resistant hypertension, with multiple new mechanism antihypertensive drugs expected to report data or achieve clinical progress in 2025 [10][11] - Key catalysts include upcoming Phase 3 clinical studies focusing on cardiovascular and renal endpoints, which are anticipated to yield data in the coming years [11] - The report suggests monitoring domestic companies involved in relevant target areas as potential investment opportunities [12] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.46% this week, with A-share food and beverage stocks underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 2.52 percentage points [13] - The report indicates a differentiation in the performance of various categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages [13] - Recommendations include focusing on high-quality companies in the liquor sector, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Moutai, as well as leading beer companies like Yanjing Beer, which are expected to benefit from demand recovery [14] Group 3: Chemical Industry - Rongsheng Petrochemical - Rongsheng Petrochemical is identified as a leading private refining company in China, with significant production capacities across various chemical products, including PX and PTA [15] - The report anticipates a recovery in refining profits and an increase in sulfur prices, which will contribute positively to the company's earnings [17] - Profit forecasts for Rongsheng Petrochemical indicate a substantial increase in net profit from 13.8 billion yuan in 2025 to 25.7 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 90.9% and 13.1% respectively [18] Group 4: Optical Communication - LightSpeed Technology - LightSpeed Technology is positioned as a leading player in the optical communication sector, benefiting from the growing demand for AI computing infrastructure [19][20] - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a 35.42% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2025 [19] - The report projects revenue growth from 116.81 billion yuan in 2025 to 169.93 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise significantly [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage sector is "Outperform the Market" [4][5][10]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, with four main investment themes: cost advantages, efficiency improvements, innovation-driven growth, and opportunities for recovery from difficulties [3][10]. - The report highlights a differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - The food and beverage sector (A-shares and H-shares) experienced a cumulative decline of 0.46% this week, with A-shares down 0.57%, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 2.52 percentage points [1]. - The top gainers in the food and beverage sector this week included Anji Food (29.65%), Richen Co. (9.00%), and Ximai Food (8.54%) [1]. Alcoholic Beverages - The demand for liquor remains weak, with premium liquor companies focusing on supply-side optimization. The report recommends companies like Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Guizhou Moutai for their growth potential [2][10]. - The report notes that the white liquor sector is in a left-side layout phase, with positive signals expected from both supply and demand sides [10]. Beer - The beer industry is in a healthy inventory position, awaiting demand recovery. The report suggests actively investing in the beer sector, particularly in leading brands like Yanjing Beer [2][11]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is experiencing a steady recovery in demand, with supply gradually clearing. The report recommends focusing on leading dairy companies like Yili for their valuation safety margins [2][13]. Snacks - The report emphasizes selecting strong alpha stocks in the snack sector, particularly those benefiting from the growth of konjac snacks, with leading companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi showing strong competitive advantages [2][11]. Investment Recommendations - The recommended investment portfolio includes Baba Foods, Dongpeng Beverage, Weilong, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with an average decline of 0.27% this week, underperforming the food and beverage sector by 2.21 percentage points [15].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 金融工程专题研究 与机器人共舞——华夏中证机器人 ETF 投资价值分析 机器人：制造业皇冠顶端的明珠 2025 年以来，机器人板块在人工智能行情催化下显著走强，成为市场重要 主线之一。1—3 月期间，人形机器人指数、宇树机器人指数最大涨幅分别 达到 52.20%和 70.19%，年内两者累计涨幅分别为 38.97%和 45.60%，明 显跑赢同期沪深 300 指数。 国家战略持续加码，为机器人产业中长期发展提供强劲动能。从"十四五"机 器人产业发展规划到人形机器人专项指导意见，再到 2025 年政府工作报告 与"十五五"规划建议，政策体系不断完善。 产业链量产提速，机器人行业收入端保持较快增长态势。工业机器人与服务 机器人产量持续刷新历史纪录，中证机器人指数成分股中约 2/3 企业实现营 收同比增长，28 只成分股单季度营收同比增速超过 20%。 中证机器人指数（H30590.CSI）投资价值分析 中证机器人指数（H30590.CSI）以机器人产业链核心上市公司为样本，集 中反映机器人主题整体表现。指数发布于 2015 年 2 月，截至 2025 年 12 月 19 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 金融工程专题研究 与机器人共舞——华夏中证机器人 ETF 投资价值分析 机器人：制造业皇冠顶端的明珠 2025 年以来，机器人板块在人工智能行情催化下显著走强，成为市场重要 主线之一。1—3 月期间，人形机器人指数、宇树机器人指数最大涨幅分别 达到 52.20%和 70.19%，年内两者累计涨幅分别为 38.97%和 45.60%，明 显跑赢同期沪深 300 指数。 国家战略持续加码，为机器人产业中长期发展提供强劲动能。从"十四五"机 器人产业发展规划到人形机器人专项指导意见，再到 2025 年政府工作报告 与"十五五"规划建议，政策体系不断完善。 产业链量产提速，机器人行业收入端保持较快增长态势。工业机器人与服务 机器人产量持续刷新历史纪录，中证机器人指数成分股中约 2/3 企业实现营 收同比增长，28 只成分股单季度营收同比增速超过 20%。 中证机器人指数（H30590.CSI）投资价值分析 中证机器人指数（H30590.CSI）以机器人产业链核心上市公司为样本，集 中反映机器人主题整体表现。指数发布于 2015 年 2 月，截至 2025 年 12 月 19 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The company, Guangxun Technology, is a leading domestic optical communication enterprise with a vertical integration capability from chip to subsystem, benefiting from the growth of AI computing power in China [1][14] - The demand for high-speed optical modules is surging due to the increasing investment in AI infrastructure by global cloud service providers (CSPs) [2] - The company has a strong market position in the domestic market and is actively expanding into overseas markets, with a significant increase in net profit and revenue expected in the coming years [3][4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guangxun Technology has over 50 years of experience in the optical communication field, achieving vertical integration of optical devices through both organic growth and acquisitions [14][15] - The company has a diverse product line that includes optical transceivers, active optical cables, optical amplifiers, and subsystems, widely used in backbone networks, metropolitan networks, access networks, and data centers [19][24] Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 347 million yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 56.00%, marking a historical high [1] - Revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 116.81 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 10.60 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [3][4] Market Trends - The global AI computing power market is experiencing high demand, with CSPs expected to increase their capital expenditures significantly, which will drive the demand for optical modules [2][49] - The "East Data West Computing" initiative and the development of intelligent computing centers are expected to further boost the demand for transmission networks [2] Technology and Innovation - The company has developed its own optical chips and is expanding production capacity, with plans to raise 3.5 billion yuan for the development of high-speed optical transmission products [3][26] - Guangxun Technology is actively investing in new technologies such as CPO/OCS to lead the upgrade of optical interconnection technology [3][24] Competitive Position - The company ranks fourth globally in the optical device industry and has a leading market share in transmission networks, access networks, and data communication [1][2] - Guangxun Technology's products are increasingly being adopted in both domestic and international markets, with overseas revenue accounting for approximately 25% as of mid-2025 [26][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The refining profit is expected to recover, with sulfur providing incremental performance [1] - The supply-demand relationship for PX continues to improve, and profitability in the polyester segment is likely to recover [2] - The company benefits from the increase in gasoline and diesel crack spreads due to overseas refinery disruptions [3] - Significant increases in sulfur prices provide profit elasticity for the company [4] - The company is positioned for substantial profit recovery from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 1.38 billion, 2.27 billion, and 2.57 billion yuan respectively [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading private refining and chemical enterprise in China, with a processing capacity of 40 million tons of crude oil and significant production capabilities in PX and PTA [1][18] - The company has a diversified product range, including high-end materials and new energy products, with ongoing projects expected to launch between 2026 and 2027 [1][18] Market Dynamics - The domestic PX capacity is expected to see minimal expansion from 2024 to 2025, while downstream PTA and polyester capacities are projected to grow, enhancing PX pricing power [2] - Global gasoline and diesel crack spreads have surged due to disruptions in overseas refineries, benefiting the company's refined oil exports [3] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 227.81 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a slight year-on-year decline of 7.09%, but a net profit increase of 1.34% [39] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 indicate a significant recovery trajectory, with a 90.9% increase expected in 2025 [4][11] Future Outlook - The company is focusing on high-quality development, with strategic investments in new materials and partnerships with major players like Saudi Aramco [28][34] - The ongoing projects in high-end materials and new energy are expected to enhance the company's product chain and profitability in the coming years [28][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of systematically researching next-generation innovative drugs for resistant hypertension (rHTN), highlighting that multiple new mechanism antihypertensive drugs will read out data and/or achieve clinical progress by 2025 [2] - Key catalysts include upcoming Phase 3 clinical studies focusing on cardiovascular and renal endpoints, which are expected to provide significant data in the coming years [2] - The report suggests paying attention to domestic companies involved in relevant target areas [2] Summary by Sections 01 Current Status and Unmet Needs in Hypertension Treatment - Hypertension is a prevalent cardiovascular disease, with approximately 90%-95% of patients suffering from primary hypertension, driven by factors such as salt sensitivity and obesity [3] - In the US, the prevalence of hypertension is around 48%, corresponding to approximately 120 million people, with about 60 million receiving antihypertensive treatment [3] - In China, the prevalence among adults aged 18 and older was 27.5% in 2018, with awareness, treatment, and control rates at 51.6%, 45.8%, and 16.8%, respectively [3] 02 Next-Generation Drug Focus on AGT and ASI - The report discusses the focus on AGT (Angiotensinogen) and ASI (Angiotensin II receptor blockers) in the development of next-generation antihypertensive drugs [3] - AGT-targeting drugs, particularly siRNA and ASO therapies, are highlighted as promising avenues for reducing blood pressure effectively [27] 03 Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the market for resistant hypertension treatments is highly structured, with a focus on balancing efficacy and safety in drug development [16] - It emphasizes the need for drugs that can manage long-term adherence and safety, particularly for patients with comorbidities such as CKD and HF [19]