Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry [5][41]. Core Viewpoints - The media sector has shown a positive performance with a 3.22% increase, outperforming both the CSI 300 (0.82%) and the ChiNext Index (2.36%) during the week of July 7-13 [12][41]. - The report emphasizes the upward trend in the performance cycle, particularly in AI applications and IP-driven products, suggesting a focus on gaming, advertising media, and film sectors [4][41]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media industry rose by 3.22% during the week, ranking 6th among all sectors [12][14]. - Notable gainers included Huamei Holdings (47%), Fengshang Culture (22%), and Shining Network (15%) [13][12]. - Decliners included ST Zitian (-51%) and Jibite (-5%) [12][13]. Key Developments - OpenAI announced the upcoming release of GPT-5, which will integrate multiple models into a unified version [2][16]. - The launch of Grok 4 by xAI, with API pricing set at $3 for input and $15 for output per million tokens, was highlighted [2][17]. - The Kimi K2 model was released by Moonlight Dark Company, showcasing top performance in various benchmark tests [2][18]. Box Office and Content Performance - The total box office for the week was 575 million yuan, with "Jurassic World: Rebirth" leading at 145 million yuan [19][21]. - Popular TV shows included "Running Man Season 13" and "Singer 2025" [26][25]. - The gaming sector saw "Whiteout Survival" leading mobile game revenues in May 2025 [30][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gaming, advertising media, and film sectors, with specific stock recommendations including Kaiying Network and Mango Super Media [4][41]. - It highlights the potential in AI applications and IP-driven products, recommending companies like Pop Mart and Yaoji Technology [4][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [4][22]. Core Insights - The construction of zero-carbon parks is being accelerated, with the release of renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights expected by 2025 [1][17]. - The report highlights the increasing responsibility weights for renewable energy consumption across various provinces, with most provinces expected to exceed 20% by 2025 [17][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating renewable energy development with energy management systems to achieve carbon neutrality [22][23]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.82%, while the public utility index increased by 1.11% and the environmental index by 3.17% [1][24]. - Within the electricity sector, coal-fired power increased by 0.41%, hydropower by 0.42%, and renewable energy generation by 1.05% [1][25]. Important Policies and Events - The National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and National Energy Administration issued a notice to accelerate the transformation of energy structures in parks and promote energy conservation and carbon reduction [15][16]. - Hainan Province's implementation plan for market-oriented reform of renewable energy grid prices includes a pricing structure for existing projects and competitive bidding for new projects [16] . Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major coal-fired power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][22]. - The report suggests that nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power will maintain stable profitability [3][22]. - In the environmental sector, companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [23][22]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Huadian International: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024 and 0.62 in 2025 [8]. - Longyuan Power: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.75 in 2024 and 0.85 in 2025 [8]. - China Nuclear Power: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024 and 0.50 in 2025 [8]. Industry Dynamics and Company Announcements - The report notes that the water and waste incineration sectors are entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow [23]. - The report also highlights the potential for domestic waste oil recycling companies to benefit from the EU's SAF blending policy [23]. Industry Key Data Overview - In May, the industrial power generation increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with a total of 737.8 billion kWh generated [49][60]. - The total electricity consumption in May reached 809.6 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.43% [57][60].

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月14日 工程机械行业跟踪点评 挖机 6 月内销同比转正，外销持续增长 |  行业研究·行业快评 | |  | 机械设备·工程机械 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 吴双 | 0755-81981362 | wushuang2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980519120001 | | 证券分析师： | 年亚颂 | 0755-81981159 | nianyasong@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523100002 | 事项： 挖掘机：据中国工程机械工业协会对挖掘机主要制造企业统计，2025 年 6 月销售各类挖掘机 18804 台，同 比增长 13.3%。其中国内销量 8136 台，同比增长 6.2%；出口量 10668 台，同比增长 19.3%。2025 年 1—6 月，共销售挖掘机 120520 台，同比增长 16.8%；其中国内销量 65637 台，同比增长 22.9%；出口 54883 台， 同比增长 10.2%。2025 年 6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The global satellite internet construction is accelerating, with Starlink leading the industry. By June 2025, Starlink has launched nearly 9,000 satellites, serving over 5 million users across more than 100 countries. The project is expected to generate over $8 billion in revenue in 2024 and potentially exceed $11 billion in 2025 [2][20]. - China's satellite internet is entering a rapid development phase, with plans for three satellite constellations. Recent leadership changes in satellite internet companies indicate a push for technological breakthroughs and business model innovations [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Satellite Internet Acceleration - By June 2025, Starlink has launched nearly 9,000 satellites, with a user base surpassing 5 million and revenue projections of over $8 billion in 2024 and $11 billion in 2025 [2][20]. - China's satellite internet has initiated the deployment of multiple satellite constellations, with significant advancements in satellite launches and leadership changes in key companies [2][3]. 2. Business Models: Direct-to-Cell and Laser Communication - The Direct-to-Cell (DTC) model is set for large-scale application, with China Telecom planning to promote satellite direct connection services extensively by 2024. By May 2025, over 30 direct connection models are expected to be released, with annual sales projected to exceed 16 million units [3]. - Laser communication technology is anticipated to become a standard in satellite internet, with significant advancements already demonstrated by private companies in China [3]. 3. Rocket Breakthroughs - China's private rocket companies are rapidly iterating technologies, with notable advancements in reusable rockets and liquid propulsion systems. For instance, Blue Arrow Aerospace's "Zhuque-3" rocket is designed to match SpaceX's Falcon 9 in payload capacity [4]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The commercial space sector in China is poised for rapid growth, with the satellite internet market expected to reach nearly 100 billion yuan in the next five years. The private rocket market is projected to exceed 30 billion yuan [4]. Key companies to watch include those in the private rocket supply chain and satellite internet communication payload suppliers [4].

超长债周报 情绪压制，超长债小跌 核心观点 固定收益周报 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月14日 30 年国债：截至 7 月 11 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 21BP，处于 历史偏低水平。从国内经济数据来看，5 月经济依然展现出韧性。我们 测算的 5 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 5.0%，较 4 月回落 0.1%，但是仍高于 全年经济增速目标值。通胀方面，6 月 CPI 为 0.1%，PPI-3.6%，通缩风 险依存。近期 5 月出口加速下滑，国内房价环比转负，国内经济依然面 临下行压力。我们认为，当前仍处于"反内卷"运动的早期，对债市影 响有限，随着 10 年期国债往 1.7%靠拢，债市机会大于风险。不过当前 30 年国债期限利差依然偏低，期限利差保护度有限。 20 年国开债：截至 7 月 11 日，20 年国开债和 20 年国债利差为 3BP，处 于历史极低位置。从国内经济数据来看，5 月经济依然展现出韧性。我 们测算的 5 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 5.0%，较 4 月回落 0.1%，但是仍高 于全年经济增速目标值。通胀方面，6 月 CPI 为 0.1%，PPI-3.6%，通缩 风险依 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in the first half of 2025, with expected revenue of 8.497 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.8%, and a net profit of 1.293 billion yuan, up 45.7% [1] - The company is capitalizing on opportunities in the new power system, focusing on innovation and sustainable development [1] - The company has a long-term commitment to overseas strategic layout, with new orders in 2024 reaching 21.46 billion yuan, a 30% increase year-on-year, and overseas revenue of 3.12 billion yuan, up 45% [2] - The company has made breakthroughs in its combination electrical equipment and supercapacitor business, with significant projects in various sectors [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue of 8.497 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.293 billion yuan, with a 50% year-on-year growth in Q2 revenue [1] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.788 billion yuan, 3.659 billion yuan, and 4.516 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 36%, 31%, and 23% [3] Revenue and Orders - The company reported new orders of 21.46 billion yuan in 2024, a 30% increase year-on-year, with overseas revenue contributing over 20% of total income [2] - The gross margin for overseas business reached 37%, significantly higher than domestic levels [2] Product Development - The company has consistently won bids for high-voltage combination electrical products and has made significant progress in the supercapacitor sector, particularly in automotive and power system applications [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the wind power industry [1] Core Insights - The domestic wind power industry is expected to see long-term demand remain optimistic, with significant cost advantages in electricity generation. The share of wind power development is likely to increase under the backdrop of comprehensive new energy market entry [3][4] - The wind turbine price is expected to rebound due to multiple factors, leading to a recovery in profitability for turbine manufacturers. The competitive landscape is improving as companies focus on profitability rather than just market share [3][25] - Emerging markets are anticipated to experience a turning point in wind power demand, with significant export opportunities for Chinese wind turbines. The export capacity is projected to reach 5.2GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 42% [3][25] Summary by Sections Domestic Wind Power Industry Development - The long-term outlook for the domestic wind power industry remains positive, with a projected CAGR of 106% for the retirement of old wind turbines from 2025 to 2030, creating demand for new equipment [3][12] - The average new installed capacity for onshore wind is expected to be 120GW in 2025, while offshore wind is projected at 10GW [12] Wind Turbine Manufacturing Industry - The report highlights a recovery in profitability for wind turbine manufacturers, with a 5%-10% increase in bidding prices for turbines in 2024 [3][25] - The average new installed capacity for onshore and offshore wind turbines is expected to reach 5.9MW and 10.0MW respectively by 2024, reflecting a significant increase from 2020 [20][24] Export Market Potential - The report emphasizes the growing international market for Chinese wind turbines, with a projected CAGR of 44% from 2020 to 2024 for exports [3][25] - The report notes that the international brand influence of Chinese wind turbines has been increasing, leading to a significant rise in overseas orders [3][25] Cost Reduction and Technological Advancements - The average cost of onshore wind power is expected to decrease to 0.1-0.15 yuan/KWh by 2025, down from 1.5 yuan/KWh in 2002, representing an 88% reduction [24] - The average cost of offshore wind power is projected to decline to 0.3 yuan/KWh by 2025, down from 1.3 yuan/KWh in 2009, a 74% decrease [24] Competitive Landscape - The report indicates that the competitive landscape is improving, with a focus on fair competition and self-regulation among manufacturers to mitigate "involution" in the industry [3][42] - The concentration of the wind turbine manufacturing industry is increasing, with the top five manufacturers accounting for 75% of new installations by 2024 [33][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to report a revenue growth of 2% year-on-year for Q1 FY26, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 16%. The revenue growth is primarily impacted by the divestiture of certain retail operations [4][6]. - The company is increasing its investment in instant retail, which is expected to pressure profits in the short term but may enhance user engagement and purchase frequency in the long term [5][23]. - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been slightly adjusted upwards, while net profit forecasts have been adjusted downwards due to increased investment in flash sales [5][23]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 FY26, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of CNY 247.8 billion, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase. The revenue growth rates for various segments are as follows: Taobao +9%, International Digital Commerce +19%, Cloud Intelligence +22%, Local Services +10%, Cainiao -5%, and Digital Entertainment +5% [4][6]. - The adjusted EBITA for Q1 FY26 is expected to be CNY 39.2 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 13% [6]. Segment Analysis - **Taobao Group**: Projected GMV growth of 6% year-on-year for Q1 FY26, with a CMR increase of 11% driven by site-wide promotions and a 0.6% contribution from service fees. The EBITA for Taobao and Local Services combined is expected to decline by 16% to CNY 40.8 billion due to increased promotional spending [11]. - **Cloud Intelligence**: Anticipated revenue growth of 22% year-on-year for Q1 FY26, driven by rising AI demand. The company continues to advance its AI initiatives, including the launch of the Qwen3 model [15][16]. - **AIDC**: Expected revenue growth of 19% year-on-year, with a slight decline in adjusted EBITA margin due to strategic decisions to enhance profitability [22]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are adjusted to CNY 1,062.3 billion, CNY 1,149.0 billion, and CNY 1,217.4 billion respectively, reflecting increases of 1.0%, 2.2%, and 0.8% [5][23]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are revised to CNY 138.8 billion, CNY 171.8 billion, and CNY 195.4 billion, with adjustments of -16.8%, -5.7%, and -2.9% respectively [5][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its Q2 performance, with significant increases in battery shipments and advancements in new battery technologies [1][3] - The company is actively expanding into new application scenarios such as BBU, robotics, and eVTOL, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [4] - The company has initiated mass production of advanced battery technologies, including all-tab batteries and solid-state batteries, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [4] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 300-360 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 79%-115% [2] - The estimated net profit for Q2 2025 is projected to be 158-218 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 64%-126% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12%-54% [2] - The company's lithium battery shipment volume is expected to reach approximately 170-180 million units in Q2 2025, showing over 70% year-on-year growth and over 30% quarter-on-quarter growth [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company has revised its profit forecast upwards, expecting net profits of 739 million, 936 million, and 1.136 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 51.5%, 26.7%, and 21.3% [4][5] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.64, 0.81, and 0.99 yuan respectively, with dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21.1, 16.6, and 13.7 [4][5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its global service capabilities through the establishment of overseas production bases, particularly in Malaysia, which began operations in April 2025 [3] - The company is focusing on high-demand sectors such as electric tools and clean appliances, while also exploring new markets to drive future growth [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [5][10]. Core Views - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing significant advancements, with various companies making notable progress in technology and production capabilities [17][22]. - The AI infrastructure is expected to see continued growth in capital expenditure driven by increasing demand for data centers [8]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic production capabilities in various sectors, particularly in electronic measurement instruments and robotics [8][9]. Industry Dynamics - Humanoid Robots: Zhejiang University's "Black Panther 2.2" set a global record by completing 100 meters in 13.17 seconds [17]. Companies like ZhiYuan and Figure are ramping up production and technological capabilities [22][24]. - Deep Sea Technology: Innovations in underwater robotics are emerging, with significant market potential expected to reach 21.5 billion by 2025 [25]. - Low-altitude Economy: The rapid development of low-altitude economic infrastructure is underway, with projects aimed at standardizing air traffic management [26]. - AI Infrastructure: The signing of a major data center project by China Mobile indicates a strong push towards enhancing computational capabilities [27]. Company Dynamics - ZhiYuan Robotics plans to acquire at least 63.62% of Shuangwei New Materials, marking a significant move in the A-share market for intelligent manufacturing [31]. - Strategic partnerships are being formed, such as the collaboration between Fulei New Materials and Zhaowei Electromechanical to explore advanced sensing technologies [32]. - Companies like Longban Technology are achieving production milestones, with a new high-precision production line for planetary roller screws reaching an annual capacity of 30,000 sets [38]. Key Companies and Investment Forecasts - The report identifies key companies with strong growth potential, including: - Green's Harmony (688017.SH): Outperform rating with a projected EPS of 0.33 for 2024 [10]. - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ): Outperform rating with a projected EPS of 1.60 for 2024 [10]. - Zhaowei Electromechanical (003021.SZ): Outperform rating with a projected EPS of 0.94 for 2024 [10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong positions in the supply chain and those involved in incremental growth segments [8].