2026 年通胀形势中，一个不容忽视的技术性因素值得关注：CPI（居民消费 价格指数）统计中的基期权重调整，可能对通胀读数产生上行助推作用。 这一影响根植于我国 CPI 的统计制度设计。在计算过程中，各类商品与服务 的数量在基期确定后即保持固定，不随价格变动而调整。这意味着，在实际 生活中，当某种商品价格下跌时，居民往往倾向于购买更多数量，其消费支 出占比的降幅会小于价格降幅；但在 CPI 核算中，由于数量固定，该商品在 总消费篮子的金额权重会完全跟随价格同步下降，导致其统计权重持续偏离 实际消费结构。 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月27日 宏观经济周报 当基期调整遇上价格回暖 市场走势 以 2021-2025 年周期为例，肉类等部分商品价格经历显著且持续的下跌。在 这一过程中，其在 CPI 中的权重已被系统性压低，明显低于居民实际消费占 比。进入 2026 年，随着统计基期例行更新，各分项权重将迎来修正，以反 映最新的实际消费结构。这意味着过去几年价格下跌明显的品类，其统计权 重将面临一次性的明显上调。 恰逢 2026 年政策重心强调"反内卷"与推动价格合理回升，预计部分此前 承压的商品和服务价格将趋于 ...

美股 2026 年投资策略 弱于大市 对比互联网泡沫：AI 浪潮走到哪了？ 互联网泡沫是众多时代红利共同作用于资金/资产供需关系上的结果 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月27日 互联网泡沫是多个历史机遇叠加作用于资金资产供需关系的结果，包括： 1）和平环境与财政改革带来了美国二战后最高的财政盈余，造成 1.6 万亿 美元的美债供给缺口，形成资产荒； 2）存款搬家配合养老金制度改革，非银金融迎来史诗级发展机遇，401(k) 账户翻 14 倍，共同基金认购额增至 3000-4000 亿美元/年； 3）贸易自由化使美国彻底进入经常账户长期逆差的状态，海外沉淀美元形 成美元资产长期购买主力，购入金融资产高至约 6000 亿美元/年； 传统研究对互联网泡沫的解读往往聚焦于其产业故事的迷惑性以及市场的 投机情绪，不足以解释这种级别的泡沫——产业故事再美好，股票市场的天 价也必须由真金白银支撑——互联网泡沫背后的成因正是如此。 4）产业供需认知偏差（高估需求/低估供给）促成了激进的资本开支计划， 资产荒下企业债融资源丰富（企业债几乎支撑 100%实体经济债券发行），融 资资金支撑产业投资与利润，吸引更多资金进入，形成自强 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Ning (02331.HK) [5][7] Core Insights - The Chinese sports and outdoor footwear and apparel market is projected to reach approximately 440 billion RMB by 2025, with a current growth rate of around 6% [1][15] - The company has experienced significant growth in the past, with net profit reaching 4 billion RMB in 2021, but has faced challenges since 2022, leading to a slowdown in revenue growth [2] - Li Ning is focusing on optimizing inventory and channels, with expectations for a rebound in profitability and brand strength due to new product launches and marketing strategies [2][4] Industry Overview - The sports industry is expanding, with a shift towards niche segments. The market structure is changing, with professional sports categories growing faster than fashion sports [1][15] - The competitive landscape is becoming more fragmented, with the market share of the top 10 brands decreasing from 76% in 2019 to 68% in 2025, indicating a rise in domestic brands [1][24] Company Performance Review - Li Ning's revenue growth slowed to single digits from 2022 to 2024 due to inventory and channel issues, but is expected to recover in 2025 with improved profitability [2][4] - The company has seen a significant increase in its direct channel profit margins, which are expected to rise from around 10% in 2023 to mid-double digits in 2025 [3] Product Cycle and Category Expansion - The company is shifting focus from basketball and lifestyle products, which have seen a decline, to running shoes, which are expected to grow at a rate of 25%-45% in 2023-2024 [3][31] - New product lines, including the "Super Capsule" technology for running shoes, are anticipated to drive growth [3][33] Marketing Strategy - Li Ning plans to increase its marketing expenditure from below 10% to low double digits starting in 2025, focusing on Olympic sponsorships and enhancing visibility in running and basketball categories [4][58] - The company is leveraging social media to boost brand engagement and visibility, with significant increases in post frequency and follower counts [4][70] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.4 billion RMB, 2.7 billion RMB, and 3.1 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting a recovery trajectory [8][39] - The estimated reasonable valuation range for the company is between 21.20 and 22.30 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of approximately 19-20 times for 2026 [7][39]

- The "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" strategy is constructed based on a dual-layer selection process that combines fundamental and technical analysis. The initial stock pool is built using analyst recommendation events, such as upward earnings revisions, first-time coverage, and unexpected positive research report titles. From this pool, stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance are selected to form the portfolio. The backtesting period is from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index after considering transaction costs in a fully invested state [14][16] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening" factor is constructed to identify stocks that have recently reached a 250-day high and exhibit stable price paths. The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price, and $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. A value of 0 indicates a new high, while positive values indicate a decline from the peak. Stocks are further filtered based on analyst attention (at least five buy or overweight ratings in the past six months), relative strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), price stability (evaluated using price path smoothness and 250-day new high distance averages over 120 days), and trend continuation (average 250-day new high distance over the past five days). The top 50 stocks are selected based on these criteria [23][24] - The backtesting results for the "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" show an annualized return of 19.11%, an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index, and a maximum drawdown of 23.73% over the entire sample period. The information ratio (IR) is 1.22, with a tracking error of 14.55% and a return-to-drawdown ratio of 0.78 [20] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening" factor identified stocks primarily in the cyclical sector (9 stocks), followed by financials (4 stocks), technology (3 stocks), manufacturing (3 stocks), and consumer sectors (3 stocks) during the recent period. Specific stocks include Global New Material International and others [23][24]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月27日 多因子选股周报 动量因子表现出色，沪深 300 增强组合年内超额 21.85% 核心观点 金融工程周报 国信金工指数增强组合表现跟踪 因子表现监控 以沪深 300 指数为选股空间。最近一周，一年动量、标准化预期外盈利、预 期净利润环比等因子表现较好，而一个月波动、三个月波动、三个月换手等 因子表现较差。 以中证 500 指数为选股空间。最近一周，预期净利润环比、标准化预期外盈 利、DELTAROE 等因子表现较好，而三个月波动、一个月波动、三个月机 构覆盖等因子表现较差。 以中证 1000 指数为选股空间。最近一周，一个月反转、单季营收同比增速、 标准化预期外收入等因子表现较好，而一个月波动、三个月波动、BP 等因 子表现较差。 以公募重仓指数为选股空间。最近一周，一年动量、预期净利润环比、单季 净利同比增速等因子表现较好，而三个月波动、一个月波动、EPTTM 等因 子表现较差。 公募基金指数增强产品表现跟踪 目前，公募基金沪深 300 指数增强产品共有 79 只（A、C 类算作一只，下 同），总规模合计 799 亿元。中证 500 指数增强产品共有 76 只，总规模 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月27日 主动量化策略周报 科创板块领涨，四大主动量化组合本周均战胜股基指数 核心观点 金融工程周报 国信金工主动量化策略表现跟踪： 本周，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益 3.01%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超 额收益 0.33%。本年，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益 32.05%，相对偏股 混合型基金指数超额收益-1.98%。今年以来，优秀基金业绩增强组合在主动 股基中排名 48.34%分位点（1677/3469）。 本周，超预期精选组合绝对收益 2.92%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收益 0.24%。本年，超预期精选组合绝对收益 44.40%，相对偏股混合型基金指 数超额收益 10.36%。今年以来，超预期精选组合在主动股基中排名 28.39% 分位点（985/3469）。 本周，券商金股业绩增强组合绝对收益 4.59%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超 额收益 1.91%。本年，券商金股业绩增强组合绝对收益 41.60%，相对偏股 混合型基金指数超额收益 7.57%。今年以来，券商金股业绩增强组合在主动 股基中排名 32.69%分位点（1134/3469）。 本周，成长稳健组合绝对收益 ...

- The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that have reached new highs, which are considered market indicators[11] - The report uses a 250-day high distance metric to represent new highs, calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{ day high distance} = 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where Closet is the latest closing price and ts_max(Close, 250) is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11] - As of December 26, 2025, the 250-day high distances for major indices are: Shanghai Composite Index 1.63%, Shenzhen Component Index 0.89%, CSI 300 1.91%, CSI 500 1.19%, CSI 1000 0.56%, CSI 2000 0.05%, ChiNext Index 2.42%, STAR 50 Index 12.56%[12] - The 250-day high distances for CITIC Level 1 industry indices are: National Defense and Military Industry 0.00%, Nonferrous Metals 0.00%, Building Materials 0.00%, Machinery 0.00%, Light Manufacturing 0.44%[13] - The 250-day high distances for some concept indices are: Forestry, Aerospace and Military Industry, Wind Power, Top Ten Military Groups, HJT Battery, Metals and Nonmetals, Gold[15] - As of December 26, 2025, 726 stocks reached new 250-day highs in the past 20 trading days, with the most in the Machinery, Electronics, and Basic Chemicals industries[19] - The highest proportions of new high stocks are in the National Defense and Military Industry, Petroleum and Petrochemicals, and Nonferrous Metals industries[19] - By sector, the most new high stocks are in Manufacturing and Technology, with 261 and 176 stocks respectively[20] - By index, the proportions of new high stocks are: CSI 2000 14.65%, CSI 1000 11.50%, CSI 500 15.20%, CSI 300 15.33%, ChiNext Index 15.00%, STAR 50 Index 6.00%[20] - The report identifies 50 "stable new high" stocks based on analyst attention, relative strength, trend continuity, price path stability, and new high persistence[24][27] - The most stable new high stocks are in the Cyclical and Technology sectors, with 21 and 15 stocks respectively[28]

**Acknowledgement** **The authors thank the anonymous referee for the help and comments on the manuscript.** 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月26日 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日，上证指数、深 证成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 1.63%、0.89%、1.91%、1.19%、0.56%、 0.05%、2.42%、12.56%。中信一级行业指数中国防军工、有色金属、建 材、机械、轻工制造行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、银行、 医药、综合金融、房地产行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。概念指数中， 林木、航天军工、万得风电、十大军工集团、HJT 电池、金属非金属、 黄金等概念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日，共 726 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [5][40]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in touch display modules and is positioned to benefit from the growth in automotive electronics and the adoption of new technologies such as foldable screens [3][32]. - The company has a strong market presence, being the largest manufacturer of ITO conductive glass globally and holding a 50% market share in TFT LCD substrate thinning [1][7]. - The automotive electronics segment is highlighted as a key growth area, with the company providing integrated touch display modules for over 70% of global vehicle brands [2][32]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2000 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2010, the company specializes in the research, production, and sales of key components for flat panel displays, including ITO conductive glass and touch sensors [1][7]. - The company has established itself as a significant player in the automotive touch display market, with a comprehensive product range that includes 3D curved automotive cover plates and display modules [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 88.89 billion, 110.58 billion, and 119.43 billion CNY for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.2%, 24.4%, and 8.0% [4][35]. - Net profit projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.92 billion, 5.17 billion, and 7.12 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 10.0%, 31.8%, and 37.6% [3][35]. Valuation - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company's stock between 6.95 and 7.37 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 17.42% to 24.54% from the current price of 6.07 CNY [5][40]. - The valuation is based on a relative valuation method, comparing the company to similar firms in the industry [38][40]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is the only supplier in mainland China certified for thinning business by a major North American client, which enhances its competitive edge [1][2]. - The company has a robust client base, including major brands like Huawei, OPPO, and VIVO, which positions it well for future growth in high-end markets [1][2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cleanroom engineering sector is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3]. Core Insights - The cleanroom engineering sector is becoming a key focus in AI infrastructure as capital expenditures shift towards engineering investments, with cleanroom projects representing a significant portion of this trend [5][6]. - Major companies in the cleanroom sector, such as Yaxiang Integration and Shenghui Integration, are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for cleanroom construction driven by the urgent expansion needs of leading firms like Micron [5][28]. - The cleanroom engineering segment is critical for the AI computing industry, accounting for approximately 60% of engineering investments related to chip production [16][18]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - From December to the present, major cleanroom sector stocks have seen significant increases, with Yaxiang Integration rising by 74%, Shenghui Integration by 60%, and Meiyai Technology by 52% [4]. Industry Dynamics - The cleanroom engineering industry is experiencing explosive growth in demand due to the global AI capacity expansion, which is currently constrained by limited construction capabilities [22][23]. - The complexity and customization of cleanroom projects create high entry barriers, resulting in strong customer loyalty and long-term relationships between clients and engineering service providers [25][27]. Future Outlook - As AI infrastructure transitions from procurement to construction, the proportion of capital expenditure directed towards engineering will significantly increase, making cleanroom engineering a central component of this evolution [6][28]. - The cleanroom engineering market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by the urgent needs of major clients and the limited supply of qualified engineering resources [23][28].