Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The refining profit is expected to recover, with sulfur providing incremental performance [1] - The supply-demand relationship for PX continues to improve, and profitability in the polyester segment is likely to recover [2] - The company benefits from the increase in gasoline and diesel crack spreads due to overseas refinery disruptions [3] - Significant price increases in sulfur are expected to enhance the company's profit margins [4] - The company is positioned for substantial profit recovery from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 1.38 billion, 2.27 billion, and 2.57 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 90.9%, 64.2%, and 13.1% [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading private refining and chemical enterprise in China, with a processing capacity of 40 million tons of crude oil and significant production capabilities in PX and PTA [1][18] - The company has a diverse product range, including high-end materials and new energy products, with ongoing projects expected to launch between 2026 and 2027 [1][18] Market Dynamics - The domestic PX capacity is expected to see minimal expansion from 2024 to 2025, while downstream PTA and polyester capacities are projected to grow, improving the supply-demand balance [2] - Global gasoline and diesel crack spreads have surged due to disruptions in overseas refineries, benefiting the company's export capabilities [3] Financial Projections - The company anticipates a significant recovery in profitability, with net profit forecasts showing substantial growth over the next three years [4][11] - Revenue from chemical products, refining, PTA, and polyester films is expected to contribute significantly to the company's overall income, with stable margins in the refining segment [21][39] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its product chain through investments in high-end materials and new energy sectors, aiming for a comprehensive industrial layout [1][28] - The introduction of strategic investors like Saudi Aramco is expected to bolster the company's long-term growth prospects [34][28]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月28日 2025年12月29日 可交换私募债跟踪 私募 EB 每周跟踪（20251222-20251226） 固定收益快评 | 证券分析师： | 王艺熹 | 021-60893204 | wangyixi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522100006 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 吴越 | 021-60375496 | wuyue8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525080001 | | 证券分析师： | 赵婧 | 0755-22940745 | zhaojing@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513080004 | 项目获批进度不及预期，经济增速下滑 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 1 证券研究报告 表1：私募 EB 每周跟踪(2025-12-26） | 债券名称 | 主承销商 | 规模 | 标的股票 | 项目状态 | 更新日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 南山集团有限公司 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-26 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3963.67 | 13603.89 | 4657.24 | 14573.33 | 3934.70 | 1345.82 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.10 | 0.53 | 0.31 | 0.38 | -0.09 | -0.23 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 8936.44 | 12665.47 | 4604.26 | 4672.38 | 5713.13 | 451.90 | $\frac{\pi\times6}{\pi\times6}$. 【重点推荐】 行业与公司 建筑行业快评:洁净室工程点评-为何洁净室能成为 AI 基建主线？ 华图山鼎(300492.SZ) 深度报告:公考热下竞争格局重塑，产品创新抢占 成长先机 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观周报:宏观经济周报-当基期调整遇上价格回 ...

《生物安全法案》复盘 --如何看待地缘政治对中国CXO企业的影响？ 行业研究 · 行业专题 医药生物 · 医疗研发外包 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 0755-81982723 pengsiyu@guosen.com.cn S0980521060003 证券分析师：陈曦炳 0755-81982939 chenxibing@guosen.com.cn S0980521120001 证券分析师：彭思宇 证券分析师：凌珑 021-60375401 linglong@guosen.com.cn S0980525070003 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 1 报告摘要 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月28日 n 靴子落地，美国《2026财年国防授权法案》夹带《生物安全法案》生效。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2 ü 《2026财年国防授权法案》夹带《生物安全法案》（主要指第851节《禁止与特定生物技术公司签订合同》）落地，标志着美国已将生物安全正式纳入国家防务与 安全战略框架统筹考量，同时彰显其在生物技术供应链自主可控的明确政策转向，本质是中美的科技竞争与产业安全博弈在生物领域的延 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月28日 基金周报 中国 ETF 市场总规模突破 6 万亿，基金销售子公司再迎扩容 核心观点 金融工程周报 上周市场回顾。上周 A 股市场主要宽基指数全线上涨，中证 500、创业 板指、中小板指收益靠前，收益分别为 4.03%、3.90%、3.88%，上证 综指、沪深 300、科创 50 收益靠后，收益分别为 1.88%、1.95%、2.85%。 从成交额来看，上周主要宽基指数成交额均有所上升。行业方面，上周 有色金属、国防军工、基础化工收益靠前，收益分别为 6.45%、6.39%、 5.41%，商贸零售、银行、煤炭收益靠后，收益分别为-1.31%、-0.89%、 -0.89%。 截至上周五，央行逆回购净回笼资金 348 亿元，逆回购到期 4575 亿元， 净公开市场投放 4227 亿元。除 10 年期外，不同期限的国债利率均有所 下行，利差扩大 7.43BP。 上周共上报 77 只基金，较上上周申报数量有所增加。申报的产品包括 1 只 REITs，2 只 QDII，8 只 FOF，易方达中证全指红利质量 ETF、前海 开源上证科创板 100ETF、天弘创业板新能源 ETF、鹏 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月28日 ETF 周报 上周 A500ETF 净申购近 500 亿元，本周将新发行 2 只科创板 芯片 ETF 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2025 年 12 月 22 日至 2025 年 12 月 26 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 2.75%。宽基 ETF 中，中证 500ETF 涨跌幅中位 数为 4.04%，收益最高。按板块划分，周期 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 5.37%， 收益最高。按主题进行分类，新能车 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 7.17%，收益 最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净申购 356.34 亿元，总体规模增加 1322.02 亿元。在 宽基 ETF 中，上周 A500ETF 净申购最多，为 493.22 亿元；按板块来 看，消费 ETF 净赎回最少，为 5.80 亿元；按热点主题来看，医药 ETF 净申购最多，为 4.08 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看， 消费、大金融 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒、新 能车 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 2025年12月28日 美元债双周报（25 年第 52 周） 弱于大市 就业降温、通胀回落，美债配置坚守中短久期防御 美国就业数据继续降温，就业增长乏力、失业率上行。美国劳工统计局最 新发布的 10 月–11 月就业报告显示，11 月非农就业人数增加约 64,000 人，略高于预期，但仍处于较低增速区间。与此同时，失业率意外上升 至 4.6%，为 2021 年 9 月以来最高水平，反映劳动力市场整体延续疲弱 态势。10 月非农数据显著走弱，就业人数减少 105,000 人，主要受联邦 政府就业大幅缩水拖累。报告还显示，私营部门就业弹性不足，全职岗 位增长有限，部分行业招聘意愿减弱，就业质量指标趋弱。 通胀数据意外降温，为明年降息预期提供空间。美国 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%，低于市场预期；剔除食品与能源后的核心 CPI 同比仅上涨 2.6%， 为 2021 年以来最低水平，显示通胀压力显著缓解。由于此前联邦政府 停摆导致 10 月价格数据缺失，本次报告无法提供完整月度环比数据。 这种技术性中断增加了短期解读数据的难度，但整体趋势仍指向通胀降 温。市场普遍认为 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the restaurant industry is experiencing a weak recovery, with leading brands pursuing diversified growth strategies, particularly in the tea beverage sector, which shows promising investment opportunities [3][5][9] - The report highlights that from January to November 2025, the national restaurant revenue increased by 3.3%, lagging behind the 4.1% growth in retail sales, indicating a continued weak recovery in demand [3][13] - The online channel is identified as a structural growth driver, with significant benefits observed in the coffee and tea sectors due to the ongoing competition in instant retail [3][14] Group 2 - The analysis of the market performance indicates that leading tea beverage brands have significantly benefited from the delivery competition, with companies like Luckin Coffee and Mixue Group showing substantial stock price increases of 39.2% and 45.4% respectively [3][33] - The report notes that the performance of restaurant leaders is varied, with some brands like Guoquan and Xiaocaiyuan showing strong same-store sales growth, while others face pressure [3][33] - The investment framework for 2025 suggests that the valuation of leading tea beverage brands is shifting due to changes in performance expectations, with same-store revenue growth serving as a key valuation anchor [3][8][9] Group 3 - The sub-industry analysis reveals that the ready-to-drink tea segment is experiencing a surge in revenue and adjusted net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 32.5% and 58.0% respectively in the first half of 2025 [3][44] - The report indicates that the fast-food sector shows resilience, with brands like KFC and Xiaocaiyuan maintaining stable same-store sales growth despite broader market pressures [3][53] - The report also highlights that the overall restaurant sector is under pressure, particularly in the casual dining segment, which is affected by various factors including the rise of pre-packaged meals [3][53] Group 4 - The investment recommendations maintain an "outperform" rating for the restaurant sector, emphasizing the strong operational capabilities of leading brands and their potential to navigate through market cycles [3][9] - The report suggests that while the tea beverage sector faces growth challenges, leading companies with strong operational and innovative capabilities are expected to gain market share [3][9] - The report identifies specific companies such as Haidilao, Yum China, Guoquan, and Mixue Group as key investment targets for 2026, based on their strong same-store recovery potential and favorable franchisee returns [3][9][66]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月28日 ETF 周报 上周 A500ETF 净申购近 500 亿元，本周将新发行 2 只科创板 芯片 ETF 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2025 年 12 月 22 日至 2025 年 12 月 26 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 2.75%。宽基 ETF 中，中证 500ETF 涨跌幅中位 数为 4.04%，收益最高。按板块划分，周期 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 5.37%， 收益最高。按主题进行分类，新能车 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 7.17%，收益 最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净申购 356.34 亿元，总体规模增加 1322.02 亿元。在 宽基 ETF 中，上周 A500ETF 净申购最多，为 493.22 亿元；按板块来 看，消费 ETF 净赎回最少，为 5.80 亿元；按热点主题来看，医药 ETF 净申购最多，为 4.08 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看， 消费、大金融 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒、新 能车 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the restaurant industry is experiencing a weak recovery, with leading brands pursuing diversified growth strategies amidst supply-side adjustments [3][5] - The report highlights that from January to November 2025, national restaurant revenue increased by 3.3%, lagging behind the 4.1% growth in retail sales, indicating a continued weak recovery in demand [3][13] - The online channel is identified as a structural growth engine, with significant benefits observed in the coffee and tea sectors due to the ongoing competition in instant retail [3][14] Group 2 - The report reviews the market performance, noting that leading tea brands like Gu Ming and Mi Xue Group have seen substantial stock price increases of 185.8% and 45.4% respectively, driven by the rise in consumer frequency due to the delivery platform competition [3][6] - It discusses the differentiated performance of restaurant leaders, with brands like Guo Quan and Xiao Cai Yuan showing strong same-store sales growth and rapid expansion, while others faced stock price pressures [3][33] - The analysis of sub-industries indicates that the ready-to-drink tea segment benefited significantly from the delivery subsidy war, with leading tea brands reporting revenue and adjusted net profit growth of 32.5% and 58.0% respectively in the first half of 2025 [3][53] Group 3 - The investment framework for 2025 suggests that the valuation of leading tea and coffee brands is shifting due to changes in performance expectations, with same-store revenue growth serving as a key valuation anchor [3][8] - The report recommends maintaining an "outperform" rating for the sector, highlighting strong operational capabilities of leading restaurant brands and the potential for tea brands to gain market share despite growth pressures [3][9] - It emphasizes the importance of brand building and membership value, noting a shift from single product hits to efficiency from the supply chain, with a focus on creating private traffic through membership systems [3][23]