证券研究报告 | 2025年09月03日 驰宏锌锗（600497.SH） 优于大市 公司稳中有升，25H1 归母同比微增 3.3% 公司 2025H1 归母净利润同比微增 3.3%，实现平稳经营。2025H1 实现营收 106 亿元（+7.7%），归母净利润 9.3 亿元（+3.3%），扣非归母净利润 9.2 亿元 （+12.1%），经营活动产生的现金流量净额 21.6 亿元（+34.7%）。2025Q2 归母净利润 4.4 亿元，同比略增 5.5%，环比-11.4%。上半年公司集中开展会 泽冶炼、呼伦贝尔驰宏、驰宏综合利用和永昌铅锌冶炼系统年度检修；下半 年将在主金属有边际贡献的前提下，优化生产组织，确保冶炼系统稳产优产。 产销情况：2025H1 公司铅锌精矿产量 15.16 万金属吨，同比增加 0.34 万金 属吨，增幅 2.29%，会泽矿业深部安全系统优化工程建设和荣达矿业怡盛元 矿区整改工作正在有序推进中，2 个项目的实施将对公司 2025 年矿山产能的 释放产生阶段性影响。公司冶炼铅锌产品产量 32.92 万吨，同比减少 2.47 万吨，降幅 6.98%，主要系上半年集中开展冶炼系统年检。 同比 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry [1][10]. Core Insights - Alibaba is significantly increasing its investment in AI, focusing on domestic computing and storage supply chain opportunities, with a projected capital expenditure of 380 billion yuan over the next three years [2][3]. - The semiconductor sector is experiencing rapid growth, driven by optimistic forecasts from major players like TSMC and SMIC, alongside increased domestic capabilities in advanced processes [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "three cycles" (macroeconomic policy, industry inventory, and AI innovation) in driving valuation expansion in the electronic sector by 2025 [1][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the electronic sector surged by 6.28%, with components up by 14.15% and optical electronics by 1.16% [1][11]. - The report notes a significant increase in the performance of the electronic industry compared to other sectors, highlighting the resilience and growth potential of this market [11]. Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended companies include SMIC, Jianghai Technology, Aojie Technology, Demingli, Huahong Semiconductor, Industrial Fulian, Lanke Technology, Huaqin Technology, Jiewa Technology, and Jingchen Technology [1][2]. - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI hardware and domestic chip manufacturing, such as SMIC, Huahong Semiconductor, and Cambrian [2][3]. Market Trends - The report highlights a recovery in the storage market, with domestic manufacturers showing improved performance in Q2, indicating a positive trend for the sector [7]. - The global large-size LCD TV panel shipments increased by 8.9% year-on-year in July, suggesting a rebound in demand and a proactive approach from major brands in increasing panel orders for the upcoming quarter [8]. Financial Projections - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for key companies, indicating a generally positive outlook for the electronic sector with expected earnings growth for several firms [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][18]. Core Views - The company experienced a 45% decline in net profit year-on-year, with a total revenue of 58.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a 25% increase [1][8]. - The core net profit, excluding minority interests and fair value changes of investment properties and financial derivatives, fell by 71% to 1.3 billion yuan [1][8]. - The real estate development segment saw a revenue increase of 35% to 45.5 billion yuan, while the operational and service segments reported revenues of 7 billion and 6.3 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 3% and 0% [1][8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company sold 2.61 million square meters, a decrease of 28.5% year-on-year, with sales amounting to 35 billion yuan, down 31.5% [2][10]. - Sales distribution by region showed that the Western, Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim, South China, and Central China accounted for 28%, 27%, 24%, 12%, and 10% of total sales, respectively, with first and second-tier cities making up 89% of sales [2][10]. Land Acquisition and Reserves - The company acquired 4 new land parcels with a total construction area of 250,000 square meters and a land cost of 1.5 billion yuan [2][10]. - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the total land reserve was 28.4 million square meters, with an average land cost of 4,207 yuan per square meter [2][10]. Financial Health - The company reported a debt-to-asset ratio of 56% and a net debt ratio of 51% as of the end of the first half of 2025, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.74 [2][12]. - The company has no public debt maturing in 2025 and has 5.9 billion yuan of domestic debt maturing in 2026 [2][12]. Operational Performance - The operational and service segments showed revenue growth of 3% and 0%, with gross margins of 77.7% and 30.0%, respectively [3][15]. - The company operates 89 shopping malls with a total area of 9.43 million square meters, generating rental income of 5.5 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, with an occupancy rate of 97% [3][15]. Profit Forecasts - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, expecting revenues of 105 billion and 89 billion yuan, with net profits of 5.3 billion and 5.5 billion yuan, respectively [3][4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are 0.76 yuan and 0.79 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.5 and 11.1 [3][4].

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月03日 招商蛇口（001979.SZ） 优于大市 业绩增长，投拓积极 归母净利润+2%。2025 上半年公司实现营业收入 515 亿元，同比增长 0%；实 现归母净利润 14 亿元，同比下降 2%。公司结算毛利率为 14.4%，同比提升 2.4pct。 销售保持规模，投拓积极。2025 上半年公司实现销售金额 889 亿元，同比下 降 12%；实现销售面积 335 万平方米，同比下降 24%，销售规模全国第四， 高能级核心城市的市场地位持续巩固，核心 10 城销售业绩贡献占比 70%，同 比提升 4pct。2025 上半年公司累计获取 16 宗地块，总计容建面约 167 万平 方米，总地价约 353 亿元，公司需支付地价约为 219 亿元。2025 上半年，公 司新增 41 个代建项目，新增代建管理面积 482 万平方米。代建业务新进驻 北京、上海、徐州、佛山等城市。 融资优势明显，结构改善。截至 2025 上半年末，公司剔除预收账款的资产 负债率 63%、净负债率 66%、现金短债比为 1.3，"三道红线"始终处于绿档。 公司银行融资占比 66%，同比提升 3pct，上半年 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月03日 $\Lambda$ is a $\Lambda$-function. 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：今日(20250903) 大部分指数处于下跌状态，规模指数中沪深 300 指数表现较好，板块指数中创业板指表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 成长指 数表现较好。通信、电新、医药、传媒、有色金属行业表现较好，国防军工、 综合金融、非银、计算机、商贸零售行业表现较差。光伏逆变器、光模块(CPO)、 储能、光刻机、光芯片等概念表现较好，军工信息化、航母、中航系、大飞 机、十大军工集团等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：今日收盘时有 39 只股票涨停，有 23 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票 今日收盘收益为 0.22%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-2.72%。今日封板率 46%，较前日下降 8%，连板率 16%，较前日提升 0%。 市场资金流向：截至 20250902 两融余额为 22885 亿元，其中融资余额 22724 亿元，融券余额 161 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.4%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 10.8%。 折溢价：20250902 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是成渝 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月03日 热点跟踪 上市公司中报超预期全景解析 当上市公司盈余公告的业绩发生大幅变化时，作为对上市公司跟踪调研最为 密切的群体，分析师通常会在其研报的标题中鲜明标示其"业绩超预期"或 "利润超预期"，相比其它判定方式，标题超预期是分析师融合了上市公司 客观盈余数据和主观调研跟踪之后的综合判断，对上市公司是否超预期的判 定更为综合、全面。本文主要对上市公司披露 2025 年中报业绩预告或正式 财报后，至少有一篇分析师点评超预期（标题中出现"业绩"、"利润"、 "营收"、"增长"、"超预期"、"好于预期"等关键词）研报的公司进 行梳理。 中报披露情况：截至 2025 年 8 月 31 日，在 2025 年 4 月 1 日前已上市的 A 股公司中，共 5383 家公司披露了 2025 年中报的正式财报。 从不同指数成分股来看，中证 500 指数成分股中报累计净利润同比增速 中位数最高。从板块来看，大金融板块的中报累计净利润同比增速中位 数为 8.05%，相对较高。从中信一级行业来看，非银行金融、钢铁、农 林牧渔中报累计净利润同比增速中位数较高。 公募基金持有比例较高的热点概念内，芯片 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月03日 华策影视（300133.SZ） 优于大市 年报点评：营收及净利润同比向上，关注影视新品表现 上半年营收及净利润同比向上。1）上半年公司实现营业收入 7.90 亿元，归 母净利润 1.18 亿元，同比分别增长 114.94%、65.05%，对应全面摊薄 EPS 0.06 元；实现扣非归母净利润 0.72 亿元，同比增长 67.87%；；2）25 年 Q2 公司 实现营业收入2.04亿元，归母净利润0.25亿元，同比分别增长6.8%、-38.3%； 3）2024 年度公司计划每 10 股派发现金股利人民币 0.20 元（含税）；4）电 视剧制作业务大幅增长是上半年营收及净利润同比大幅改善的主要原因。 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所预测 注：摊薄每股收益按最新总股本计算 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 传媒·影视院线 | 证券分析师：张衡 | 证券分析师：陈瑶蓉 | | --- | --- | | 021-60875160 | 021-61761058 | | zhangheng2@guosen.com.cnchenyaorong@guosen.com.cn | | ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月03日 姚记科技（002605.SZ） 优于大市 中报业绩点评：短期业绩承压，毛利率有所提升 上半年营收及净利润同比向下。1）上半年公司实现营业收入 14.38 亿元、 归母净利润 2.56 亿元，同比分别下滑 24.64%、9.98%，对应全面摊薄 EPS 0.61 元；实现扣非归母净利润 2.54 亿元，同比下滑 5.43%；2）25 年 Q2 公司实 现营业收入 6.60 亿元、归母净利润 1.15 亿元，同比分别下滑 28.8%、13.7%， 对应 EPS 0.28 元；3）营收与业绩下滑主要在于数字营销及扑克牌业务短期 波动。 数字营销业务下滑明显，关注扑克牌产能投放。1）上半年游戏业务实现营 收 4.81 亿元，同比下滑 6.33%，主要受短期流水波动影响；毛利率基本稳定， 同比提升 0.15 个 pct 至 96.39%。从行业竞争格局来看，公司所处的休闲游 戏品类相对稳定，国内主要有《捕鱼炸翻天》、《指尖捕鱼》、《姚记捕鱼 3D 版》、《大神捕鱼》、《捕鱼新纪元》、《小美斗地主》、《齐齐来麻 将》等休闲类游戏，；海外游戏产品主要有《Bingo Party》、《 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for Broadcom [3][5][42] Core Insights - Broadcom benefits from the global AI wave, with significant growth in semiconductor and software sectors driven by AI demand [1][2][42] - Semiconductor solutions dominate revenue structure, accounting for 58.35% of total revenue in FY2024, with AI-related revenue growing by 220% [1][14] - Infrastructure software revenue reached $21.478 billion in FY2024, showing a year-on-year growth of approximately 181.24% [1][14] Revenue and Profitability - In FY2025H1, Broadcom achieved revenue of $29.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.38%, and net profit of $10.468 billion, up 203.77% [2][17] - The company expects FY2025Q3 revenue to be $15.8 billion, driven by a 35% increase in ASIC sales [2][43] Business Segments - The semiconductor solutions segment includes AI XPU accelerators, network switch chips, and custom ASIC products, while the infrastructure software segment includes VMware Cloud Foundation and virtualization software [13][32] - The semiconductor solutions business is projected to grow at rates of 18.5%, 31.5%, and 25.5% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [31][43] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Broadcom are $61.266 billion, $76.340 billion, and $90.654 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of $25.299 billion, $34.561 billion, and $42.479 billion [4][43] - The report anticipates a steady increase in gross margin, reaching 67.6% in 2025 and 69.1% by 2027 [31][32] Valuation - The report suggests a valuation range of $1,658.93 billion to $1,693.49 billion based on a projected PE ratio of 48-49 for 2026 [3][43] - Broadcom's current PE ratios are 55.29, 40.47, and 32.93 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [43]

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月03日 保险业 2025 年中报综述 优于大市 利润同比提升，资负驱动显弹性 新准则放大投资收益波动，上市险企上半年归母净利润同比增长 4.9%。2025 年上半年，债券市场利率波动及权益市场震荡为险企资产端带来一定机遇及挑 战，A 股上市险企营收及利润表现分化。营收方面，新华保险、中国人保、中 国太保、中国平安、中国人寿、中国平安分别同比增长 26.0%/10.8%/3.0%/ 2.1%/1.0%；归母净利润分别同比+33.5%/+16.9%/+11.0%/ +6.9%/-8.8%。其中， 中国平安因受一季度平安好医生并表的一次性因素影响，业绩出现短期波动； 新华保险受益于投资端收益改善，业绩同比显著改善。 寿险：提高浮动型产品占比，NBV 大幅提升。2025 年以来，5 家上市险企保险 服务收入达 8315.21 亿元，同比增长 3.5%。行业持续推进产品结构转型，分 红险等浮动收益型产品占比提升。新华保险、中国平安、中国太保、中国人保、 中国人寿 NBV 同比增长 58.4%/39.8%/32.3%/26.7%/ 20.3%。此外，险企持续 深化渠道转型措施，银保渠道上 ...