证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 长安汽车 2024 年年报点评：新能源与出海驱 动增长，智能化布局稳步推进 [Table_Title2] 长安汽车(000625) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 增持 | 股票代码： | 000625 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 增持 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 17.07/11.32 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 1,231.33 | | 最新收盘价： | 12.42 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 1,025.98 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 8,260.73 | ► 1、营收创新高，销量稳健增长 2024 年公司实现营业收入 1597.33 亿元，同比增长 5.58%，创历史新高。全年实现汽车销量 268.4 万辆，同比增长 5.1%，创近七年新高，连续五年实现同比正增长。 ► 2、盈利阶段承压，研发投入加大 2024 年，公司整体毛利率为 14.94%，同比下滑 3.42pct，主要受新能 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's revenue faced short-term pressure, with Q1 2025 revenue at 1.11 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.55% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.61%. The company has established a strong brand reputation and customer base, serving over 200 major clients globally, including more than 130 in the new energy sector [2] - The gross profit margin significantly improved to 25.33% in Q1 2025, an increase of 4.84 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure optimization and cost control. The net profit margin after deducting non-recurring items rose to 11.08%, up 2.21 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [3] - The company is expanding its new energy business, with electronic water pump products gaining market share in the domestic new energy passenger vehicle market. The company is also actively developing non-automotive businesses, focusing on sectors such as 5G base stations and AI computing centers, which are expected to drive a second growth curve [4] - The traditional business remains stable, with turbocharger housings benefiting from the penetration of hybrid models and export growth. The company is accelerating its global layout, with a production base in Thailand expected to be completed by September 2025, which will help mitigate tariff risks and optimize the supply chain [5] Financial Forecasts - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with new profit projections for 2027. Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.87 billion, 7.06 billion, and 8.14 billion respectively, with net profits of 452 million, 587 million, and 700 million. The EPS for these years is projected to be 0.79, 1.02, and 1.22 respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term depreciation impacts while expanding its glove and new materials production [1] - Revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected to be CNY 1.27 billion and CNY 117 million, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 30% and 10.1% [2] - The company plans to maintain its growth trajectory through capacity expansion and new product development, particularly in functional safety gloves and high-performance polyethylene fibers [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of CNY 1.27 billion, a 30% increase year-on-year, with net profit at CNY 117 million, up 10.1% [2] - The company’s Q1 2025 results showed revenues of CNY 282 million, a year-on-year growth of 18.46% [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of CNY 1.5 per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 20% [2] Business Segments - The glove business is seeing increased orders, with production capacity expected to reach 72 million pairs annually by mid-2025 [3] - Revenue from functional safety gloves and other protective products reached CNY 12.19 million and CNY 0.03 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 29.69% and 174.93% [3] - The new materials segment, particularly ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers, is projected to contribute significantly to revenue, with a 49% increase in 2024 [4] Capacity Expansion - The company is expanding its production capacity for functional safety gloves and ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers, with new projects expected to come online in 2025 [3][4] - The company’s total production capacity for safety gloves is anticipated to exceed 100 million pairs once all projects are completed [3] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 22%, a decrease from the previous year, primarily due to increased depreciation [5] - The net profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 9.18%, reflecting a decline from the previous year [5] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are CNY 1.74 billion and CNY 2.34 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of CNY 139 million and CNY 196 million [9] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be CNY 0.88, with a PE ratio of 27.41 [9]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the tungsten industry, predicting that the stock price will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 15% or more within the next six months [33]. Core Insights - The Bakuta tungsten mine is expected to begin commercial production in Q2 2025, contributing significantly to global tungsten supply [4][6]. - The mine has favorable geological conditions and is one of the largest tungsten resources globally, with an estimated resource of 109.5 million tons containing 0.211% WO3 [3][11]. - The global tungsten supply has been declining over the past six years, and the Bakuta mine's phase two production is expected to contribute 13% to global output by 2028 [6][28]. Summary by Sections Bakuta Tungsten Mine Overview - The Bakuta tungsten mine is located in Kazakhstan and is one of the largest open-pit tungsten mines globally, with a significant resource endowment [3][11]. - The mine's estimated resources include 10.95 million tons of ore, translating to approximately 231,500 tons of WO3 [3][11]. Production Timeline - Phase one of the Bakuta project is set to start commercial production in Q2 2025, with a target capacity of 3.3 million tons of tungsten ore per year [4][20]. - Phase two is planned for Q1 2027, which will increase production capacity to 4.95 million tons per year [4][20]. Cost Advantages - The Bakuta mine benefits from lower operational costs due to its open-pit nature and favorable local conditions for land use, water, electricity, and labor compared to other major tungsten-producing countries [23][24]. - The estimated operational cash cost for 2025 is projected to be approximately RMB 463.2 million, with a unit cost of RMB 156 per ton of ore [23][24]. Global Supply Dynamics - Global tungsten production is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase in 2024, but the Bakuta mine's contribution will be crucial as it ramps up production [6][28]. - The report highlights that China's tungsten production dominates the market, accounting for about 83% of global output [28]. Beneficiary Companies - Companies expected to benefit from the Bakuta tungsten mine's production include Zhangyuan Tungsten, Zhongtung High-tech, and Xiamen Tungsten, among others [7][30].

[Table_Title2] 凯莱英(002821) [Table_Summary] 事件概述 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 业绩符合市场预期，新兴业务收入同比增长超 80% 公司发布 2025 年一季报：25Q1 实现营业收入 15.41 亿元，同比 增长 10.10%、实现归母净利润 3.27 亿元，同比增长 15.83%、 实现扣非净利润 3.05 亿元，同比增长 20.14%。 分析判断: 证券研究报告|公司点评报告 邮箱：cuiwl@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120519110002 联系电话： ► 业绩符合市场预期，新兴业务收入同比增长超 80% 公司 25Q1 实现收入 15.41 亿元，同比增长 10.10%、实现归母净 利润 3.27 亿元，同比增长 15.83%，符合之前市场预期。受益于 多肽、寡核苷酸、ADC 等业务的放量，公司 25Q1 新兴业务实现收 入超过 3.1 亿元（24Q1 披露新兴业务收入 1.76 亿元，同比增长 超过 80%，即为收入端超过 3.1 亿元），同比增长超过 80%，对应 毛利率提升 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company, Zhongxin Tourism, is one of the first 5A-level international travel agencies in China, focusing on outbound tourism business through a wholesale and retail integrated approach [1][14] - The inbound tourism industry is experiencing growth driven by policy support, with Zhongxin Tourism well-positioned to benefit from this trend [1][54] - The outbound tourism market is expected to see reduced restrictions and increased demand, particularly from the middle-aged and elderly demographics, which presents significant growth opportunities for Zhongxin Tourism [2][54] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhongxin Tourism is a leading international travel agency in China, with nearly 2000 stores nationwide covering about 20 provinces and offering services in over 200 countries and regions [1][14] - The company employs a multi-channel marketing strategy that combines online and offline sales [1][14] Inbound Tourism - The inbound tourism sector is entering a growth phase due to various policy initiatives, including visa exemptions and increased entry points [54] - The demand for inbound tourism is currently greater than supply, indicating significant recovery potential [1][54] Outbound Tourism - The outbound tourism market is expected to grow as restrictions ease and demand from younger and middle-aged travelers increases [2][54] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising trend in outbound tourism, particularly among the elderly who prefer group travel [2][54] Retail Business - The retail segment of Zhongxin Tourism is expanding with minimal resistance, and the growth of retail stores is expected to enhance brand recognition and revenue [3][6] - As of mid-2024, the number of retail stores has surpassed 2000, showing significant growth from 751 stores at the end of 2019 [3][6] Wholesale Business - The wholesale business is expected to grow due to the synergy with retail operations and the overall recovery of the outbound tourism market [7] - The company is diversifying its wholesale offerings to include study abroad, immigration, and health services, which are anticipated to drive revenue growth [7] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 65.17 billion, 104.76 billion, and 132.05 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 97.6%, 60.7%, and 26.0% [8][10] - The expected net profit for the same years is 1.14 billion, 2.45 billion, and 3.75 billion yuan, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.12, 0.25, and 0.38 yuan [8][10]

Group 1 - The investment in local government bonds is gaining momentum, combining both allocation and trading opportunities, with the market increasingly focusing on the investment cost-effectiveness of local bonds since 2023 [1][12][13] - The total scale of local government bonds has grown significantly, from 1.16 trillion yuan at the end of 2014 to an expected 50 trillion yuan by 2025, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 45% [12][18] - The demand for local bonds is expanding, with commercial banks, broad funds, insurance self-managed, and securities firms being the four main holding institutions, while the proportion held by commercial banks has been gradually decreasing [3][25][32] Group 2 - The supply of local bonds is characterized by three main features: increasing average issuance size, lengthening maturity structure, and stable regional structure [2][16][21] - The average issuance size of local bonds has risen significantly, with the average size reaching 66 billion yuan in early 2025, indicating a more dispersed holding structure that facilitates active trading [16][18] - The proportion of local bonds with a remaining maturity of 10 years or more has increased from 4.1% at the end of 2019 to 36.0% by the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a shift towards longer-term investments [2][22] Group 3 - The pricing rules in the secondary market for local bonds are closely tied to government bonds, with the yield spread between local and government bonds exhibiting a mean-reverting characteristic [4][12] - Historical analysis shows that the widening spread between local and government bonds can occur due to concentrated supply pressures or during bullish market phases [4][12] - The investment experience of holding local bonds compared to government bonds shows that local bonds can provide higher excess returns, especially for 10-year and 30-year maturities [6][7][12]

Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry [5] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the total nickel production decreased by 1% year-on-year to 41,617 tons and saw a significant decrease of 29% quarter-on-quarter due to planned maintenance at key facilities [1][7] - Copper production remained stable year-on-year at 109,355 tons, with a 3% increase quarter-on-quarter, attributed to improved operational efficiency [2][7] - Palladium production decreased by 0.6% year-on-year to 741,000 ounces, while platinum production increased by 0.6% year-on-year to 180,000 ounces, reflecting variations in metal content in processed materials [3][7] Production Guidance - The company has set a nickel production guidance for 2025 (excluding Trans-Baikal operations) at 204,000 to 211,000 tons and copper production guidance at 353,000 to 373,000 tons [4][8] - For the Trans-Baikal division, the copper production guidance for 2025 is set at 66,000 to 70,000 tons [4][8]

Market Overview - On April 22, global asset pricing experienced volatility with US stocks rising and gold sharply declining, while domestic stock and bond markets remained relatively stable [2] - Major stock indices showed narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 slightly changing by -0.10% and +0.08% respectively [2] - The bond market saw a slight increase in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds, rising by 1.0bp and 1.5bp to 1.66% and 1.89% respectively [2] Commodity Insights - Trump's statement regarding the potential reduction of tariffs on Chinese imports boosted global risk appetite, leading to a significant drop in gold prices, with London and New York gold falling below $3350 per ounce [3] - Domestic commodities related to infrastructure and real estate showed positive price movements, with copper, rebar, iron ore, and coking coal prices increasing by 1.22%, 1.46%, 2.11%, and 2.56% respectively [3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The end of the tax period led to a rapid easing of liquidity, with the central bank conducting a reverse repurchase operation of 108 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 3.5 billion yuan [4] - Overnight rates for non-bank institutions decreased, indicating improved liquidity conditions, with R001 and R007 averaging 1.66% and 1.70% respectively, down by 6bp and 2bp from the previous day [4] Equity Market Dynamics - The easing of trade tensions led to a rise in the market, with the Wind All A index increasing by 0.35% and trading volume reaching 1.26 trillion yuan, up by 141.3 billion yuan from the previous day [6] - Sectors that previously suffered from tariff-related declines, such as automotive and machinery, saw significant rebounds, with notable increases in their respective indices [7] Company-Specific Developments - Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings report showed a decline in revenue by 9.23% year-on-year and a net profit drop of 63.77%, attributed to tariff policies and production changes [8] - Despite the weak earnings, Tesla's positive signals regarding future product launches and production plans for the Optimus robot contributed to a rise in related indices [8] - XPeng Motors also showcased new products at an auto show, leading to a 4.30% increase in the automotive parts index [9] Investment Sentiment - Overall market sentiment improved due to expectations of reduced trade tensions, with significant focus on Trump's future statements regarding tariff policies [10] - If tariffs remain high, it may benefit domestic demand and overseas expansion sectors; however, a significant reduction could lead to a recovery in export-related sectors [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 496 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%, exceeding market expectations, indicating a significant acceleration in growth [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025 was 255 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32%, also surpassing market expectations [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth in the intelligent welding sector, with a potential market demand of approximately 10.7 billion yuan in China's steel structure industry [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 2.275 billion, 2.955 billion, and 3.776 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31%, 30%, and 28% [6] Revenue Summary - Q1 2025 revenue growth was driven by strong performance in laser cutting applications, particularly in high-power demand and pipe cutting solutions [3] - The company anticipates continued rapid revenue growth in 2025, supported by the recovery in steel construction and increasing demand from industries such as shipbuilding [3] Profit Summary - Q1 2025 gross profit margin remained high at 77.76%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.55 percentage points, attributed to product mix adjustments [4] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 52.25%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.50 percentage points [4] Future Outlook - The company is positioned for significant growth in the intelligent welding market, with established partnerships with major steel structure manufacturers and a strong competitive advantage [5] - The company has also developed high-performance control systems for precision processing, expanding its capabilities in laser processing solutions [5]