证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 利润持续高增长，禾蛙平台 Offer 再创新高 | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 增持 | 股票代码： | 300662 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 增持 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 39.99/19.05 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 55.87 | | 最新收盘价： | 28.39 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 55.72 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 196.28 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述： 公司发布 2025 年三季度报告。2025 年前三季度公司实现营业收入 107.55 亿元，同比增长 26.29%；实现归母 净利润 2.2 亿元，同比增长 62.46%，实现扣非归母净利润 1.57 亿元，同比增长 40.2%；单 Q3 公司实现营业收 入 36.80 亿元，同比增长 23.70%，实现归母净利润 0.93 亿元，同比增长 89.62%，实现扣非归母净利润 0.61 亿 ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 存在一次性费用影响，但 TW 迎来拐点 [Table_Title2] 锦泓集团(603518) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 603518 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 13.43/7.41 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 31.75 | | 最新收盘价： | 9.17 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 31.61 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 344.69 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 25Q3 收入/归母净利/扣非归母净利 8.40/0.004/-0.03 亿元，同比下降 0.55%/97.17%/-，利润仅为微利水 平我们分析主要由于：1）存在战略投入、咨询费用、信息系统投入等一次性费用；2）政府补助下降。2025前 三季度公司实现收入/归母净利/扣非归母净利/经营性现金流分别为 28.34/1.14/1.06/1.42 亿 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-4.0% on October 30, 2025[1] - Market expectations for a December rate cut dropped from approximately 90% to 63% following Powell's hawkish statements[2] - The Fed will cease its balance sheet reduction starting December 1, allowing $35 billion in MBS to mature and reinvesting the proceeds into Treasury bonds[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Risks - Employment growth has slowed, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased, indicating rising downside risks to employment[1] - Inflation has shown signs of rising, with recent indicators suggesting a potential upward trend in inflation risks[6] - The market anticipates a policy rate of about 3.08% by the end of 2026, compared to the Fed's September dot plot estimate of 3.4%[6] Group 3: Divergence in Fed Opinions - Two dissenting votes were recorded in the recent Fed meeting, with one member advocating for a 50 basis point cut and another supporting no change[3] - The divergence in opinions among Fed members reflects uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, with some members preferring to wait for more data[3] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following Powell's hawkish remarks, the 2-year Treasury yield rose by approximately 10 basis points to 3.6%, and the 10-year yield increased by about 9 basis points to around 4.07%[4] - The S&P 500 index initially fell by 0.77% but later recovered some losses, while the dollar index briefly rose by 0.4%[4]

[Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 数据迷雾增添降息变数 [Table_Title2] ——10 月美联储议息会议点评 [Table_Summary] 事件概述 证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 北京时间 10 月 30 日凌晨 2 时，美联储公布 2025 年 10 月 FOMC 会议声明。相关点评如下： 主要观点 ► 美联储操作：连续降息 25BP，结束量化紧缩 美联储再降息 25BP。美联储 10 月议息会议宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 3.75%至 4.00%之间（下调 25bp），符合 CME 期货价格隐含的市场预期，为年内第二次降息。 结束量化紧缩。此次 FOMC 会议宣布将于 12 月 1 日结束资产负债表缩减。到期美国国债将全部再投资，抵押贷 款支持证券（MBS）本金偿还将用于再投资于短期国债。 ► 议息会议声明：经济温和速度扩张 从会议声明的表述来看，本次会议对就业形势的判断已从此前的"经济活动增长有所放缓"调整为"经济活动正 以温和速度扩张"，这意味着虽然存在较大不确定性，但经济仍保持增长。就业方面和通胀方面则基本维持了此 前的表述。 值 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index successfully crossed the 4000-point mark, supported by the central bank's bond purchases, leading to an unexpected rise in short-term bonds [1] - The A-share market saw a significant increase, with the Wind All A Index rising by 1.16% and a trading volume of 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 125.4 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][3] - The recovery in the market is underpinned by easing tensions in US-China relations, which has reduced the pressure on risk appetite [1][3] Industry Performance - As of October 29, 4241 companies have disclosed their Q3 reports, showing a 9.23% year-on-year growth in net profit for the Wind All A Index, with a 10.01% growth excluding financial and oil sectors [3] - Notably, the technology sector has shown impressive performance, with the Wind AI Computing Index and Semiconductor Index reporting year-on-year net profit growth of 56.51% and 66.68%, respectively [3] - The energy storage index and SW non-ferrous metals index also reported significant growth in net profit, at 37.66% and 34.28%, respectively, indicating a strong recognition of these sectors' industrial trends [3] Structural Risks - The market's significant rise has led to the emergence of structural risks, with the concentration of trading volume reaching 44.89%, nearing historical highs [4] - The proportion of stocks trading above their 95% historical percentile is at 17.62%, exceeding the historical average of 15%, suggesting potential volatility if the upward momentum is disrupted [4][6] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is experiencing a tug-of-war over interest rate pricing, with short-term bonds benefiting from strong buying interest, particularly from major institutional investors [7][8] - Following the central bank's announcement to restart bond purchases, short-term bond yields have declined, while long-term yields have shown mixed performance due to risk appetite factors [8][9] Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market has seen a significant inflow of funds, with a net inflow of 6.5 billion yuan into precious metals, indicating a stabilization after previous declines [10] - Industrial metals have performed well, with copper and aluminum prices rising by 1.16% and 0.35%, respectively, driven by improved risk appetite following positive signals in US-China relations [10][11] - The "anti-involution" theme has gained traction, particularly in polysilicon and coking coal, with significant price increases observed in these sectors [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.43 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 620 million yuan, up 31.5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2] - The low-temperature business continues to show strong growth, while the ambient temperature segment faces challenges. The low-temperature yogurt segment is growing faster than low-temperature milk, and the overall low-temperature growth is expected to maintain a leading position throughout the year [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 28.4%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. However, the decline in expense ratios contributed to better-than-expected performance, with net profit margins increasing by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company maintains a positive outlook on revenue and structural growth driven by low-temperature products, with expectations for high-quality growth in 2025 [4] Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2025, the company forecasts revenues of 11.06 billion yuan, with net profits of 700 million yuan, and earnings per share (EPS) of 0.81 yuan. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 20, 17, and 15 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a turnaround in Q3 2025, with revenue of 647 million and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 28 million, marking a significant recovery from previous losses [2]. - Domestic business shows steady growth, with online sales benefiting from improved e-commerce strategies, while overseas operations are undergoing restructuring to optimize store efficiency [3][5]. - The gross margin decreased to 62.7%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin improved to 4.4%, up 9.7 percentage points, due to reduced sales and management expenses [4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 2.019 billion, a year-on-year decline of 6.22%, but a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders by 427.34% [2]. - The company’s cash flow from operations was 414 million, reflecting a 72.75% increase year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in inventory [2]. - The company’s inventory decreased by 20% year-on-year to 763 million, with an average inventory turnover period reduced by 67 days to 308 days [4]. Brand and Channel Performance - Revenue by brand in Q3 2025 showed mixed results, with ELLASSAY and LAUREL growing by 4.6% and 12.4% respectively, while IRO faced a decline of 16.3% [3]. - Online sales decreased by 9.7%, while offline sales fell by 4.7%, indicating a need for further improvement in online strategies [3]. - The company continues to expand its direct sales channels, with a net opening of 452 direct stores and 102 franchise stores, although there was a decline in the number of new openings compared to the previous year [3]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements in 2025, with initiatives aimed at enhancing operational capabilities and resource utilization [5]. - Long-term growth potential remains strong for brands like SP, LAUREL, and IRO in the domestic market, with expectations for reduced losses in overseas operations [5]. - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with revenue estimates lowered to 2.892 billion, 3.106 billion, and 3.349 billion respectively, while net profit estimates have been increased [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1-Q3 2025 met market expectations, with a revenue of 13.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 468 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.25% [1][2] - The company is focusing on expanding its product offerings in the AI and robotics sectors, with significant investments in R&D and new materials for humanoid robots and AI servers [4][8] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.55%, and a net profit of 162 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.63% [2] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 19.10%, a year-on-year increase of 0.40 percentage points, while the gross margin for Q3 2025 was 19.72%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.28 percentage points [3] - R&D expenses for Q1-Q3 2025 amounted to 1.015 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.01% [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a "dual pillar + AI" strategy, focusing on consumer electronics, new energy, and humanoid robots [4] - The company has made significant progress in developing key components for AI-based laptops and wearable products, as well as new materials for energy storage battery structures [4] - The company has accelerated the construction of humanoid robot production capacity and increased R&D investment, achieving over 35 million yuan in revenue from overseas humanoid robot parts in the first half of 2025 [4] Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 187.01 billion yuan, 231.08 billion yuan, and 262.33 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 10.4%, 23.6%, and 13.5% respectively [8] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 698 million yuan, 1.034 billion yuan, and 1.232 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.6% in 2025, followed by increases of 48.2% and 19.1% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.87 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 280 million yuan, up 83.6% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 660 million yuan, a 70.0% increase year-on-year, but a 10.7% decrease quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 100 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 169.0% [1] - The company's contract liabilities reached 130 million yuan by the end of September 2025, marking a 32% year-on-year increase, indicating strong order growth and sustainability of performance [2] Financial Performance - The comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 29.5%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 14.8%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - For Q3, the comprehensive gross margin was 28.4%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin increased to 15.1%, up 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] Industry Trends and Strategic Focus - The demand in the liquid cooling sector is rapidly increasing, driven by the need for AI servers to manage higher computing densities. The company has strategically positioned itself in this area with products that meet specific requirements [4] - The company is also focusing on the robotics sector, having formed a project team of experts to enhance collaboration with clients and develop core equipment tailored to current and future robotics industry needs [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with projected revenues increased from 2.62 billion, 3.41 billion, and 4.43 billion yuan to 2.79 billion, 3.62 billion, and 4.71 billion yuan respectively. The net profit estimates have also been raised accordingly [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised from 2.99, 3.88, and 5.08 yuan to 3.31, 4.35, and 5.71 yuan respectively, with a closing price of 82.53 yuan on October 29, 2025, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25, 19, and 14 times for the respective years [5]

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 消费 REITs 如何定价？ [Table_Title2] 公募 REITs 系列之四 [Table_Summary] 公募 REITs 一级市场认购热度不减，8-9 月新发行的 3 单消 费 REITs，网下和公众投资者认购倍数均在 200 倍以上。与此同 时，这些新发 REITs 的询价区间宽度有所拉长，意味着定价越来 越具有挑战性。本文聚焦消费 REITs，以近期发行的凯德商业 REIT 和中海商业 REIT 作为样本，进行定价模型搭建与预测。 ►定价关键：获得合理准确的可供分配现金流 参考近期发行上市的唯品会奥莱和凯德商业 2 只消费 REITs 发行情况，预计本月上市的华夏中海商业 REIT 上市首日涨幅约 13-27%，对应上市首日收盘价为 5.968-6.707 元/份。不过由于 二级市场情绪依然偏弱，按照全市场消费 REITs 当前行情的平均 估值收益率测算，中海商业 REIT 在打新效应退去后的平均定价 中枢为 5.43 元/份。 ►持续跟踪项目经营情况，留意未来增长空间 收益 ...