证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 23 日 [Table_Title] 中报业绩再超预期，看好全年利润弹性释放 2025H1 公司归母净利润/扣非归母净利润为 4.27/3.57 亿元，分别同比+98.73%/+71.32%，其中 Q2 为 3.16/3.11 亿元，分别同比+49.91%/+50.58%，超出预告上限，业绩持续兑现。2025H1 公司销售净利率/扣 非净利率为 19.67%/16.48%，分别同比+4.90pct/+2.84pct，其中 Q2 为 23.43%/23.05%，分别同比 +0.50pct/+1.70pct，高基数背景下，盈利水平持续提升：1）毛利端：25H1 公司毛利率为 54.93%，维持高 水平；单 Q2 毛利率为 56.24%，环比继续提升，接近历史高点；2）费用端：25H1 公司期间费用率为 37.93%，同比-3.42pct，主要系规模效应显现，叠加营运水平提升，也是盈利水平持续提升的主要原因。 3）非经损益为 6984 万元，主要为长川半导体投资收益及政府补助，一定程度增厚利润表现。 ► AI 需求推动封测行业复苏，SoC ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：人声鼎沸 | [Table_Title2] 国内市场表现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指 数 | 收 盘 | 涨 跌 | 幅度 （%） | 五日走势 | | 上证指数 | 3581.86 | 22.07 | 0.62% | | | 沪 深300指 数 | 4118.96 | 33.35 | 0.82% | | | 中证可转债指数 | 459.59 | 2.18 | 0.48% | | | 7-10年国开债指数 | 266.39 | -0.31 | -0.11% | | | 3-5年隐含AA+信用指数 | 190.38 | -0.09 | -0.05% | | 7 月 22 日，商品依旧是主角，"反内卷"政策预期更上一层楼，煤炭期货一度涨停，玻璃、多晶硅继续领涨。 国内市场风险偏好已被点燃，各大股指普遍上涨，债市延续防御状态，中长久期收益率悉数上行。 股市，大盘板块继续稳步上涨基调，上证指数、沪深 300 涨幅分别为 0.6 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Title] 海德鲁 2025Q2 铝土矿/氧化铝/电解铝产量分别环 比增加 11%/3%/2%至 273.4/151.6/51.2 万吨 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 22 日 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 生产经营情况 1）铝土矿和氧化铝 2025Q2 铝土矿产量为 273.4 万吨，同比持平，环比增加 11%； 2025Q2 铝土矿采购量为 109.6 万吨，同比减少 5%，环比减少 7%； 2025Q2 氧化铝产量为 151.6 万吨，同比增加 2%，环比增加 3%； 2025Q2 氧化铝采购量为 117.4 万吨，同比减少 5%，环比增加 8%； 2025Q2 氧化铝总销量为 271.8 万吨，同比持平，环比增加 6%； 2025Q2 氧化铝实现价格为 397 美元/吨，同比下跌 1%，环比 下跌 32%。 2）电解铝 2025Q2 电解铝产量为 51.2 万吨，同比增加 1%，环比增加 2%； 2025Q2 熔铸车间产量为 52.2 万吨，同比增加 1%，环比增加 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, marking its first coverage [4][7]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the smart grid sector, with a comprehensive layout across the entire new power system, including source, network, load, storage, and data [1][11]. - The domestic grid investment is on an upward trend, with significant R&D investments supporting growth. In the first five months of 2025, grid project investments reached 204 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.8% [2][24]. - The global grid investment is also rising, with the company's overseas business revenue growing from 920 million to 3.28 billion from 2019 to 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 29% [3][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Smart Grid Leadership and Comprehensive Layout - The company is recognized as a pioneer in the domestic power automation sector, covering all aspects of the new power system [11]. - The smart grid business is the main contributor to revenue, with projected revenue of 28.47 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [13]. 2. Domestic Grid Investment and R&D Support - The report highlights the increasing investment in the domestic grid, with expectations for 2025 to exceed 650 billion [2][24]. - The company maintains high R&D spending, which reached 4.032 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.94% [40]. 3. Global Investment and Rapid Overseas Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its overseas business, with significant projects in Saudi Arabia, South America, and Mexico [44]. - The overseas revenue is expected to continue growing, contributing positively to overall performance [3][44]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 645.03 billion, 719.67 billion, and 799.99 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.3%, 11.6%, and 11.2% respectively [4][47]. - The expected net profit for the same period is 84.01 billion, 94.56 billion, and 106.14 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 10.4%, 12.6%, and 11.3% [4][47].

Investment Rating - The report provides a recommendation for the industry [8]. Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the total nickel production reached 45,233 tons, a 9% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 6% decrease year-on-year. The increase was attributed to optimized supply processes and equipment maintenance [1][10]. - Copper production in Q2 2025 was 103,834 tons, reflecting a 5% decrease both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. The decline was due to the reallocation of commercial product output based on export supply demands [2][10]. - Palladium production in Q2 2025 was 1,155 thousand ounces, down 11% quarter-on-quarter and 10% year-on-year, while platinum production was 155 thousand ounces, down 14% quarter-on-quarter and 13% year-on-year [3][10]. - For H1 2025, nickel production totaled 86,850 tons, a 4% decrease year-on-year, while copper production was 213,189 tons, a 2% decrease year-on-year [4][5][6]. - The production guidance for 2025 indicates nickel production between 196,000 and 204,000 tons and copper production between 343,000 and 355,000 tons, excluding the Trans-Baikal division [9][11]. Summary by Sections Nickel Production - Q2 2025 nickel production was 45,233 tons, a 9% increase from Q1 2025 but a 6% decrease from Q2 2024. The production was primarily from the company's own raw materials [1][4][10]. Copper Production - Q2 2025 copper production was 103,834 tons, down 5% from both the previous quarter and the same quarter last year. The decrease was linked to adjustments in product output based on market demand [2][5][10]. Platinum Group Metals (PGM) - Q2 2025 palladium production was 1,155 thousand ounces, a decrease of 11% from Q1 2025 and 10% from Q2 2024. Platinum production was 155 thousand ounces, down 14% quarter-on-quarter and 13% year-on-year [3][6][10]. Production Guidance - The company forecasts nickel production for 2025 to be between 196,000 and 204,000 tons and copper production between 343,000 and 355,000 tons, excluding Trans-Baikal operations [9][11].

[Table_Title] 从零开始学转债 [Table_Title2] 可转债研究宝典之一 [Table_Summary] ► 初识转债，需要了解的事 转债的全称为可转换公司债券，既具备信用债定期支付的票 息和本金等基本要素（纯债价值），又可在转股期内按照一定 的规则转化为股票，从而获得对应份数的股权价值（转换价 值），叠加赎回条款、下修条款和回售条款等附加条款的特殊 期权价值，三者融合之下，使得转债产品成为了一种具有股 债二重性的复杂衍生品。 转债在二级市场的定位非常清晰--核心是为债市提供补充收 益来源，尤其是在收益荒日益严峻的当下；同时也可以为权 益和混合投资者提供一个波动更温和、且下有底的投资选 项，以及在正股仓位达到上限时，也可继续通过转债参与看 好标的或板块的股性收益。 证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 21 日 ►转债的基本要素及条款说明 投资者在初次接触到具体的转债个券时，我们需要重点关注 的内容包括转债的发行规模、期限、信用评级等基本信息， 转股条款和纯债条款等基础条款的设置，以及赎回条款、回 售条款和下修条款等附加条款的设置。随着转债市场的不断 ...

2025Q2 巴西氧化铝销量为 33.5 万吨，同比减少 6%，环比增加 4%。2025 财年巴西氧化铝销量为 134.9 万吨，同比增加 5%。 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 21 日 [Table_Title] South32 2025Q2 氧化铝产量同比增加 0.4%至 127.0 万吨，电解铝产量同比增长 3.7%至 30.9 万吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 生产经营情况 1、Worsley 氧化铝 2025Q2 Worsley 氧化铝产量为 93.6 万吨，同比增加 2%，环比 减少 1%。2025 财年 Worsley 氧化铝产量为 372.7 万吨，同比 减少 1%。原因是在获得 Worsley 矿山开发项目的环境审批之 前，运营管理着受限的铝土矿供应。公司于 2025Q2 开始在现 有业务附近开采该项目下的新铝土矿区，从而提高了铝土矿的 供应量。2026 财年的产量指导保持不变，仍为 375 万吨。由 于该项目改善了铝土矿的开采，预计从 2027 财年开始，精炼 厂的运营将 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant investment in the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which is expected to drive market sentiment and boost related sectors such as construction and engineering [2][9] - Domestic commodities have shown a strong upward trend due to favorable supply and demand dynamics, with industrial products like alumina, coking coal, and glass experiencing price increases exceeding 5% [3][6] - The report notes that the stock market has been buoyed by the positive sentiment surrounding infrastructure projects, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 rising by 0.72% and 0.67% respectively [2][11] Group 2 - The report discusses the implications of the "anti-involution" policies aimed at stabilizing prices in key industries, which have led to a reversal in the long-term downward trend of industrial raw material prices [6][8] - The report indicates that the recent surge in commodity prices may lead to a shift in market expectations regarding inflation and monetary policy, reminiscent of the supply-side reforms initiated in 2015 [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of observing the continuity of demand-side policies to sustain the current market momentum, particularly in light of the recent infrastructure developments [8][9]

[Table_Summary] 受益于科创债 ETF 规模大增，科创债成交火热，尤其是成分券表现更 好。7 月 17 日，首批 10 只科创债 ETF 上市，申购规模大增 475 亿 元，总规模由成立时的 290 亿元增至 765 亿元。7 月 18 日，科创债 ETF 总规模进一步增长 118 亿元至 883 亿元。受益于此，科创债成交 火热。7 月 14-18 日科创债总成交高达 1520 笔，其中科创债 ETF 成分 券为 1199 笔（占比近八成）。科创债成交笔数占普信债比例高达 18%，创历史新高。 并且，成分券收益率下行幅度更大。7月 18日相比 11日，非科创债各 期限收益率平均下行幅度在 1-3.2bp，科创债各期限平均下行幅度均大 于非科创债，尤其是 3-5 年和 5 年以上，分别多下行 1.9bp 和 2.5bp。 进一步观察科创债 ETF 成分券，平均下行幅度更大，各期限在 3- 6bp。 经历了火热行情后，市场更关心的是科创债还能不能追？科创债 ETF 作为科技领域债券的唯一指数化工具，上市后规模激增，短时间内形 成了"科创债 ETF 规模增长-成分券配置需求增长-跑赢同资质个券-科 ...

证券研究报告|宏观专题报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 20 日 [Table_Title] 反内卷:行业差异与资产影响 [Table_Title2] ——反内卷系列研究报告（一） [Table_Summary] 投资要点: ► "反内卷"政策梳理 本轮"反内卷"与 2015 年供给侧改革存在差异：2015 年改革针对供需结构 性错配：需求总量相对稳定但低端供给过剩；当前则面临有效需求不足和 低端过剩。治理领域上，前轮聚焦钢铁煤炭等上游行业，多为国企主导， 本轮则延伸至光伏、新能源车、锂电池等民企集中的下游新兴制造业。 ► 行业产能过剩情况梳理 总体来看，当前工业产能利用率和利润率都处于低位，且有进一步下行 的压力，政策介入有助于推动行业实现市场供需的再平衡。分行业来 看，汽车制造业、电气机械制造业（包括光伏）、非金属矿物制造业（玻 璃、水泥）均处于利润率与产能利用率"双低"的状态，需要进行产能出 清。黑色金属行业（钢铁等）受固定成本较高因素的影响，处于高产能利 用率低利润率的困境。 ► "反内卷"重点领域 光伏：欧美贸易壁垒叠加国内补贴退坡，产能过剩加剧，导致全行业价格 下行与普遍亏损 ...