证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 09 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：债市"摆烂" 9 月 9 日，股债双双调整，近期证券时报提示资金"极致抱团"科技赛道后，市场可能正在形成潜在的流动性 风险，类似 2021 年的新能源泡沫，基于此，今日双创板块相应开始校正估值，科创 50、创业板指分别下跌 2.38%、2.23%，主力与大户离场背景下，大盘板块同步下跌，上证指数、沪深 300 跌幅分别为 0.51%、0.70%。 权益市场缩量回调。万得全 A 下跌 0.89%，全天成交额 2.15 万亿元，较昨日（9 月 8 日）大幅缩量 3111 亿 元。如何看待今日的缩量下跌？我们认为，这属于一次健康的调整，而非彻底转弱的信号。 其一，在牛市环境下，缩量下跌分为两种情况。一是缩量小跌，体现出资金的犹豫心理；二是缩量大跌，指 向买盘承接力量不足，即使大幅回调，愿意买入的资金仍然有限。今日属于缩量小跌的情况，资金观望情绪发 酵，但并未彻底转为悲观。 其二，缩量调整体现出资金逐渐走出抱团瓦解的担忧。8 月中下旬以来，市场成交迅速放量，资金经历了从抱 团到瓦解的过程。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the yield spread of urban investment bonds has expanded to a high level, driven by liquidity constraints. Since July 2025, the yield on long-term urban investment bonds has risen significantly more than that of short-term bonds, leading to an increase in the yield spread from approximately 34 basis points at the beginning of July to 64 basis points by September 5, 2025, an expansion of 30 basis points [1][9][10] - The report highlights that the credit risk of urban investment bonds has not changed significantly, and the expansion of long-term yield spreads is more a compensation for declining liquidity. In August 2025, the number of transactions for urban investment bonds with a remaining maturity of over five years dropped by nearly 60% compared to July, reaching the lowest level since June 2024 [2][18][23] - The report notes that the current market sentiment towards extending duration is at a low point, with the duration sentiment index dropping from around 3.2 in July 2025 to approximately 1.2 recently, indicating a growing consensus of caution in the market [19][20] Group 2 - The report states that the yield curve of urban investment bonds has steepened since July 2025, with long-term yields rising significantly while short-term yields have remained relatively stable. This steepening of the yield curve suggests that bullet strategies will outperform barbell strategies in terms of returns [3][28][35] - It is emphasized that during periods of steep yield curves, bullet strategies have historically shown better performance in terms of returns and drawdowns. The report suggests that investors should consider 2-3 year bullet strategies as they are expected to outperform in the current market conditions [3][37][48] - The report provides specific recommendations for investors to focus on urban investment bonds with a maturity of 3 years to 1 year that exhibit a relatively steep yield curve, which can yield higher riding returns [3][29][35]

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 09 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 2025 年中报点评：Q2 业绩短期承压，系泊链 收入&订单进入加速放量阶段 [Table_Title2] 亚星锚链(601890) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 增持 | 股票代码： | 601890 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 增持 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 12.2/6.49 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 94.02 | | 最新收盘价： | 9.80 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 94.02 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 959.40 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司发布 2025 年半年报。 ► 收入端：船用链略有承压，系泊链收入&订单加速增长 25H1 实现营收 9.91 亿元，同比+6%，其中 Q2 为 4.03 亿元，同比-17%。分产品来看：1）船用链 及附件：25H1 实现收入 6.18 亿元，同比-9%；25H1 实现销售 6.35 万吨，同比-2%；25 ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 9 月 9 日 [Table_Title] 创新药研发能力卓越，产品管线具备竞争力 根据公司 2025 年半年报：公司在靶点筛选方面，关注具有 较大患者人群，以及临床需求尚未得到满足的治疗领域。通 过国际多中心临床试验等方式提高开发速度，目前拥有多个 进展前列的临床管线产品：1、公司的 KRASG12C 抑制剂格索 雷塞已用于治疗非小细胞肺癌并有望应用于治疗结直肠癌等 多种癌症，其临床前研究及临床试验均展现出较好的安全 性。格索雷塞于 2024 年 11 月获批上市。2024 年 6 月，格索 雷塞两个新适应症再度被 CDE 纳入突破性治疗药物程序； 3、与现有市场上需要肌肉注射的 SERD 靶向药氟维司群相 比，公司的 SERD 靶向药 D-0502 采用口服给药，便捷性和依 从性更好。2021 年 10 月，中国 CDE 基于Ⅰ期临床试验数 据情况，同意 D-0502 直接开展单药关键Ⅲ期注册临床试 验。2022 年 9 月，该注册性Ⅲ期临床试验完成首例受试者入 组；3、D-2570 是公司自主研发的一款靶向 TYK2 的新型口服 选择性 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a record high Q2 performance with significant growth in CNC machine tools, exceeding market expectations [2][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 5.265 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 27%, with Q2 revenue reaching 2.986 billion yuan, up 26% year-on-year [3] - The growth in revenue is driven by strong demand in tire molds, large components, and CNC machine tools, with the latter showing a remarkable year-on-year increase of 145% [3] - The gross profit margin remains high, with a sales gross margin of 34.48% in H1 2025, slightly down from the previous year [4] - The company is expected to maintain robust growth in revenue and profit in the coming years, with adjusted revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 being 10.947 billion, 13.017 billion, and 15.043 billion yuan respectively [6][7] Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth - In H1 2025, the company generated revenue of 5.265 billion yuan, with Q2 alone contributing 2.986 billion yuan, marking a new quarterly revenue high [3] - Revenue from tire molds was 2.628 billion yuan, up 19% year-on-year, while large components revenue reached 1.947 billion yuan, up 33% year-on-year [3] Profitability - The net profit attributable to the parent company for H1 2025 was 1.197 billion yuan, a 25% increase year-on-year, with Q2 net profit reaching 677 million yuan, up 21% year-on-year [4] - The sales net profit margin for H1 2025 was 22.73%, indicating stable profitability despite slight fluctuations [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth in its core business segments, with tire molds and large components benefiting from increasing domestic and international demand [5] - The CNC machine tool segment is entering a phase of rapid growth, contributing significantly to overall revenue [5] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 3.12, 3.77, and 4.43 yuan respectively, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [7]

证券研究报告|新股介绍 [Table_Date] 2025 年 09 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 新股介绍| 深耕 20 余年，精密冲压"小巨人" [Table_Title2] 华新精科（603370） [Table_Summary] ►精密冲压铁芯始终是公司核心收入来源。公司 2022- 2024 年分别实现营业收入 11.92 亿元/11.89 亿元/14.21 亿元，YOY 依次为 40.78%/-0.26%/19.49%；实现归母净 利 润 1.14 亿 元/1.56 亿 元/1.53 亿元，YOY 依次为 56.59%/37.01%/-1.72%。根据最新财务情况，公司 2025 上半年实现营业收 7.52 亿元，较上年同期上升 19.40%； 实现归母净利润 0.98 亿元，较上年同期上升 13.52%。 2024 年，公司收入主要由精密冲压铁芯贡献 1,245.72 亿 元，占比 87.69%，毛利率为 22.19%。 [Table_Summary] ►精密冲压铁芯是主要利润收入来源。公司 2022-2024 年 分别实现营业收入 11.92 亿元/11.89 亿元/14.21 亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [4]. Core Viewpoints - The price of yellow feathered chickens has significantly increased, leading to a potential turnaround in the company's Q3 performance [14][18]. - The company's cost of production for yellow chickens has decreased to below 11 yuan per kilogram, enhancing its competitive edge [3][18]. - The pig farming business shows substantial growth potential due to a significant reduction in production costs and planned increases in output [20][21]. Summary by Sections Price Increase and Q3 Performance - Yellow feathered chicken prices have risen since July, with a more than 15% increase noted from 12.93 yuan per kilogram in July to August [2][14]. - The increase in prices is attributed to reduced supply from less efficient farmers exiting the market and seasonal demand spikes during traditional festivals [2][14]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company's complete cost for yellow chicken production has dropped to below 11 yuan per kilogram, which is competitive within the industry [3][18]. - Despite a loss of over 100 million yuan in Q2, projections indicate that with a price increase of 25% to 40%, the company could achieve monthly profits ranging from over 1 billion to more than 3 billion yuan [3][19]. Pig Farming Business Growth - The complete cost of pig farming has decreased significantly, with projections showing a drop from 17.6 yuan per kilogram in Q1 2024 to a target of 12 yuan per kilogram by the end of 2025 [20][21]. - The company plans to increase pig output to 2 million heads by 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory for this segment [20][21]. Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a leading player in the yellow feathered chicken market, with an increasing market share due to the exit of less efficient competitors [8][28]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 179.24 billion, 210.16 billion, and 235.89 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 8.37 billion, 18.29 billion, and 23.38 billion yuan respectively [28].

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 09 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 8 月出口放缓，受对美拖累 据海关总署，2025 年 8 月出口总值 3218 亿美元，同比增长 4.4%，不及市场预期的 5.6%和前月的 7.2%； 进口总值为 2195 亿美元，同比 1.3%，同样低于预期的 4.7%，前值 4.1%。如何看待这份不及预期的进出口数 据？ 一是出口意外放缓，主要受美国、拉美和非洲拖累。8 月对美出口同比-33.1%，已连续第 5 个月两位数负增 长，并且较 7 月降幅扩大 11.5 个百分点，较为接近 5 月的低点-34.5%，拖累整体出口同比 5.1pct（拖累效果较 7 月扩大 1.8pct）。其背后原因或是对美出口的关税税率仍维持在 40+%的高位（8 月 11 日特朗普签署行政令， 将对中国的关税暂停措施再延长 90 天）。 同时高频数据指向对美出口仍处于较低增速。从出口集装箱运价来看，8 月最后一周相较 7 月最后一周，美 东和美西航线运价分别下跌 13%和 12%，不过跌势有所减缓（7 月跌幅为 28%左右）。发船数据来看，截至 9月 7 日， ...

证券研究报告|行业动态报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 9 月 9 日 [Table_Title] 2025 外滩大会前瞻：科技赋能金融，共筑未 来经济 金融机构持续推动 AI 技术在银行、保险及证券等多领域的创新 应用与场景深化，数字化能力日益成金融机构差异竞争优势的 核心要素。面对风控、合规与治理等多重挑战，论坛聚焦人工 智能，系统探讨 AI 与金融业务深度融合的路径与趋势，重点研 讨技术应用场景深化、伦理与治理框架构建以及产学研协同机 制等关键方向，共同探索技术创新与风险管控的平衡策略，致 力于推动构建开放、稳健且可持续的 AI 金融生态体系。我们认 为，人工智能对于构建金融机构差异竞争优势的核心要素具备 战略意义，人工智能在助推金融服务的同时，也将为金融行业 注入新的活力。 具身智能引领机器人产业迈向规模化应用 具身智能引领机器人产业加速迈向规模化应用。在 AI 技术迭 代与政策支持下，机器人从 "专用工具" 向 "通用智能体" 跨越，分布式 AI 框架等技术突破与商业化模式创新加速其在 多场景落地。我们认为具身智能推动机器人产业迈向规模化的 [Table_Title2] 计算机行业跟踪 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 09 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 基金销售新规，股债费率或难一概而论 9 月 5 日盘后，证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定（ 征求意见稿）》，时隔 12 年，为《开 放式证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》再次打补丁。新规对公募基金的申购费率、赎回费率均给出了更明确的指 引，旨在通过"宽进严出"，即"降低认购费率，抬升提前赎回成本"的方式，引导资金树立长期投资观念，并降 低耐心资本的综合投资成本。 尽管新规的本意是推动资本市场各大板块长期健康发展，但其中关于债券基金赎回费率的设置，长期利好， 不过由于改动较大，可能会引起债市潜在波动风险，接下来我们将从债基视角出发，从变化、现状、问题、解法 四个维度，探究后续的正式版新规相较征求意见稿，可以有哪些方面的改动。 变化：股债尺度拉平，过早赎回债基同样需要面临高额的惩罚性费率 对于两个版本文件，在 2013 年修订的《开放式证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》中，监管主要针对股票基 金、混合基金给出了明确的赎回费率制定标准，对于收取销售服务费的产品（如 C 类份额），持有期不满 3 ...