复盘本周资金市场，周一（7 日）作为跨季资金回收的最后时点，央行延续缩 量续作，净回笼 2250 亿元，标志着本轮跨季呵护的资金回笼完毕。随后的 8-9 日， 央行延续净回笼态势，分别回收资金 620 亿元和 230 亿元。在持续的净回笼压力 下，7 月 9 日的隔夜和 7 天资金利率较前一周五普遍回升 1-2bp。 为应对资金面边际收紧，央行于 10-11 日重启逆回购净投放，不过资金价格依 然延续上行态势。截至 11日，R001重回 OMO 利率之上，较月初低点上行 4.3bp， 报 1.40%；R007 也重回 1.5%+，较月初低点上行 2.1bp 至 1.51%。 证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 大税期将至，银行融出降至 3 万亿+ [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：逆回购持续回笼，资金价格小幅反弹 7 月 7-11 日，跨季资金回笼基本告一段落，央行于 10-11 日开启净投放，不过 资金价格依然延续上升态势。 资金面收敛的背后，是银行融出回归中性水平。银行平均单日融 ...

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 二手房周成交降至年内低位 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 二手房成交环比连降两周，同比连降五周。本周（7 月 4-10日），15城二手房成交面积 199万平，成交面积 萎缩，低于过去四周的 210-229 万平，这触及年内周成交低点（节假日除外），仅略高于春节后一周水平（167 万平）。本周环比下滑 5%，降幅收窄 3 个百分点。同比来看，本周 15 城二手房成交下滑 5%，降幅收窄 7 个百 分点。7 月初以来，二手房成交累计同比下滑 6%，大于 6 月的降幅 3%，而 5 月、4 月和 3月同比均为增长，增 幅分别为 4%、20%、39%。 分城市层级看，一线城市二手房周成交面积由升转降，环比下滑 20%。其中北京表现较弱，环比下滑 32%，成交面积 26 万平，明显低于过去四周的 34-39 万平；上海环比下滑 14%，成交面积 36 万平，略低于过 去四周的 39-42 万平；深圳环比下滑 5%，成交面积 14 万平，过去四周介于 13-15 万平。 ...

Group 1: A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) of the A-share market is 15.94, with a historical average of 22.57 when excluding financial and oil sectors[7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE (TTM) of 13.25, while the ChiNext Index stands at 49.22, indicating significant valuation differences among indices[15] - The risk premium for the A-share market is currently at 0.79%, which is below the historical average[18] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 10.75, with a historical maximum of 22.67 and a minimum of 7.36[58] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 19.81, reflecting a higher valuation compared to the broader market[63] - The Hang Seng Financial Index has a median PE of 7.45, indicating lower valuations in the financial sector[70] Group 3: U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 28.02, with a historical maximum of 41.99 and a minimum of 11.21[80] - The NASDAQ Index shows a PE (TTM) of 42.43, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels[88] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a current PE (TTM) of 31.24, reflecting strong market performance[92] Group 4: Sector Valuation Insights - In the A-share market, sectors like non-ferrous metals and food & beverage are currently at historically low PE levels, while sectors like computers and steel are at high PE levels[25] - The banking sector in A-shares has a PB (LF) of 0.64, indicating undervaluation compared to historical averages[28] - The consumer sector, particularly in white goods, has a PE (TTM) of 11.02, suggesting potential for growth[37]

Global Market Overview - The report indicates that global markets are under pressure due to current tariff issues, leading to increased volatility. Major US stock indices experienced pullbacks, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all declining [1][3] - The TAMAMA technology index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has risen to 35.1, exceeding the 35 mark, indicating a high valuation. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio has further increased to 51.8, while the Nasdaq's P/E ratio stands at 42.5, both suggesting potential overvaluation [1][12] - The report highlights that the Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is at 38.12, significantly above historical averages, indicating that various sectors such as finance, consumer, communication services, and industrials may face corrections due to high valuations and economic uncertainties [1][12] US Market Performance - The S&P 500 index, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw declines of 0.31%, 0.08%, and 1.02% respectively during the week [3][12] - Within the S&P 500, the energy sector had the highest increase at 2.48%, while the financial sector experienced the largest decline at 1.91% [12][16] European Market Performance - European markets showed mixed results, with the German DAX index increasing by 1.97%, while other indices like the UK FTSE 100 and French CAC40 also saw modest gains [9][10] - The report anticipates potential corrections in major European indices such as the CAC40, FTSE 100, DAX, and others due to high price-to-book ratios and economic pressures [1][9] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index all increased, with respective gains of 0.93%, 0.91%, and 2.07% [4][24] - The report notes that the Hong Kong market is expected to experience further differentiation, with low-valuation assets that are less impacted by trade issues presenting structural buying opportunities amidst volatility [1][39] Emerging Markets Performance - Emerging markets displayed varied performance, with the Ho Chi Minh Index rising by 5.1%, while the Brazilian IBOVESPA index fell by 3.59% [11][39] - The report suggests that emerging markets may also face corrections due to economic fundamentals and uncertainties stemming from US trade policies [1][39] Key Economic Data - The report mentions that in May 2025, the Eurozone retail sales index grew by 1.8%, down from 2.7% previously, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [4][43] - In June 2025, Germany's CPI year-on-year growth was 2%, slightly lower than the previous 2.1%, while France's CPI increased to 1% from 0.7% [40][43]

证券研究报告|金融工程专题报告 使用投资雷达把握行业轮动机会 张立宁 SAC NO：S1120520070006 杨国平 SAC NO：S1120520070002 2025年7月11日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 1 刻画行业走势状态 目录 2 走势状态与未来涨幅 3 建立位置参数表 4 行业轮动组合效果 2 1 刻画行业走势状态 3 研究目标 (1) 根据价格与成交金额的变化方向，得到4种状态：放量上涨、放量下跌、缩量下跌、 缩量上涨。 (2) 对于每种状态，计算价格、成交金额涨跌幅度，以及两者涨跌幅度的相对比例。从 而对行业走势状态实现更准确的定位。 • 我们根据走势状态将行业坐标位置绘制在极坐标系上，可视化效果与雷达相似，可以帮 助及时把握投资机会：当行业运行至坐标系的特定区域时，意味着投资机会的出现。因 此将此行业轮动方法称为行业投资雷达。 4 $$\rho={\sqrt{(x-y)^{T}\cdot\Sigma^{-1}\cdot(x-y)}}$$ • 极坐标系中的极角即过原点和散点的连线与0°线形成的夹角，极角可以根据成交变化 幅度、价格变化幅度之间的比例关系，由反正切函数计算： • ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 10 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：憧憬 2015 重现 | | | 7 月 10 日，"反内卷"叙事余音未尽，棚改重启预期成为新的主线，股市普涨，债市齐跌，部分商品迎来强势 反弹行情。 国内资产方面，股市，大盘稳中有升，上证指数、沪深 300、中证红利分别上涨 0.48%、0.47%、0.62%；科 技很快仍在调整，科创 50、恒生科技下跌 0.32%、0.29%；小微盘行情相对平淡，中证 2000 下跌 0.05%，万得 微盘股指上涨 0.01%。债市，10 年、30 年国债收益率分别上行 1.45bp、1.60bp 至 1.66%、1.88%；10 年、30年 国债期货主力合约下跌 0.16%、0.36%。 海外方面，美国新一轮关税交易情绪整体进入缓和阶段，美元指数延续震荡走势，黄金价格亦维持窄幅波 动，日内振幅控制在 0-0.5%区间。不过，随着 8 日特朗普提出对进口铜加征 50%关税，铜价波动较大，COMEX 铜价昨日下跌 2.5%后，今日开盘后明显反弹，涨幅一度超过 2%，LME 铜亦表现偏强，日内上涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In the low - interest - rate era, "extending duration" and "controlling costs" are two key strategies for bond investment. The public - offering bond funds are shifting from "credit downgrading" to "duration management", and the low - cost advantage of bond - fund indexation is prominent [1][2]. - Long - duration index bond funds are the best combination of "high duration" and "low cost". Different types of long - duration index bond funds have different risk - return characteristics, and investors can choose according to their needs [3]. - Ten - year Treasury bond ETFs are effective "offensive - and - defensive" tools for enhancing portfolio returns, and are also suitable for short - term trading and rotation strategies [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Low - Interest - Rate Era: "Extending Duration" and "Controlling Costs" as Two Key Strategies - Since early 2014, domestic interest rates have been in a downward cycle, and the upward elasticity of interest rates has weakened. From 2015 to 2025, the market has experienced five rounds of local government debt resolution, gradually flattening the credit spread [1][12][13]. - Facing the "low - interest - rate + low - spread" environment, public - offering bond funds are shifting from "credit downgrading" to "duration management". The average allocation ratio of medium - and long - term bond funds to credit bonds has dropped from 41% in 2020 to 30% at the end of Q1 2025, while the acceptance of portfolio duration is increasing [1][20][21]. - Referring to overseas experience, in a low - interest - rate environment, Japanese public - offering bond funds have increased their allocation to long - term bonds. In terms of risk - return ratio, the cost - effectiveness of long - duration strategies has become prominent since 2021 [27][32]. - Passive index - type bond funds have a cost - saving advantage of about 11 - 15bp per year compared with actively managed products, which is a relatively certain "hidden alpha" for investors [2][33]. 3.2 Long - Duration Index Bond Funds: The Best Combination of "High Duration" and "Low Cost" 3.2.1 Choices of Long - Duration Index Tools - Mainstream long - duration index bond funds are divided into three categories: local government bonds, Treasury bonds, and policy - financial bonds, and can be further divided into "long - term tools" (7 - 10 years and 10 years) and "ultra - long - term tools" (30 years) [3][48]. - Among them, the 10 - year index - type bond funds mainly hold bonds with a remaining term of 7 - 10 years, similar to 7 - 10 - year products. The 7 - 10 - year policy - financial bond index funds are the most popular, while the local bond index funds are scarce [48][49]. 3.2.2 Differences in the Long - Duration Index Toolbox - From the duration dimension, the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds have significant differences in risk - return characteristics, corresponding to the "ballast" and "offensive spear" roles respectively. The 10 - year Treasury bond is suitable for stable long - term investment, while the 30 - year Treasury bond is suitable for aggressive investors [54]. - From the bond type dimension, 7 - 10 - year policy - financial bonds are similar to Treasury bonds, while local bonds have unique characteristics. Although the long - term performance of 7 - 10 - year local bonds is good, investors may need more patience. The investment value of Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds is converging [55][56][61]. 3.3 Investment Strategies for Long - Duration Index Bond Funds 3.3.1 Allocation: Enhancing Portfolio Returns, "Offensive and Defensive" - Ten - year Treasury bond ETFs are effective "offensive - and - defensive" tools for enhancing portfolio returns. In the interest - rate downward cycle, they have excellent return - capturing ability, such as the 9.02% annual return of Cathay Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF in 2024 [7][65]. 3.3.2 Trading: Capturing Band - Trading Returns from "Point - Type Market Conditions" - Long - duration index products represented by ten - year Treasury bond ETFs have high liquidity and trading convenience, and are suitable for capturing band - trading returns from "point - type market conditions" in the bond market, such as the rapid decline and rebound of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield from November 2024 to January 2025 [7]. 3.3.3 Important Tools in Rotation Strategies - A "core - satellite" strategy is proposed, using long - duration interest - rate bond ETFs as the core "base" for pure - bond rotation, and tactically adjusting the satellite positions according to short - term market conditions. Back - testing shows that the improved rotation strategy can enhance returns and has better risk - adjusted returns [7][77][80].

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 10 日 [Table_Title] 通胀仍在探底 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] 6 月 CPI 同比 0.1%，高于预期 0%，前月-0.1%；CPI 环比-0.1%，前月-0.2%，去年同期-0.2%。剔除食品 和能源的核心 CPI 同比 0.7%，前值 0.6%；环比 0%，前月 0%。PPI 同比-3.6%，预期-3.3%，前月-3.3%；PPI 环比-0.4%，前月-0.4%。CPI 环比跌幅收窄，核心 CPI 继续持平，PPI 跌幅连续四月不变，如何看待 6 月通胀 数据？ CPI 环比略强于季节性。6 月 CPI环比-0.1%，略高于 2021-2024 年同期均值（-0.2%），推动 CPI同比转正 （0.1%），此前四个月连续为负。此外 CPI同比转正，还受到"四舍五入"进位因素的影响，依据环比推算 6 月 CPI 同比在 0%附近。综合上半年来看，CPI 累计环比之和为-0.1%，是近年同期次低值，仅好于 2023 同期的- 0.5%，低于去年同期的 0.1%，反映出今年的价格修复 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 9 日 [Table_Title] 艾芬豪 2025Q2 铜产量同比增长 11%至 11.20 万 吨，锌产量达到 4.18 万吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: 评级及分析师信息 [Table_IndustryRank] 行业评级：推荐 [Table_Pic] 行业走势图 [Table_Author] 分析师：晏溶 邮箱：yanrong@hx168.com.cn SACNO：S1120519100004 相关研究： 1.《行业点评|艾芬豪 2025Q1 铜产量同比增长 54.58%至 13.3 万吨，锌产量达到 4.27 万吨》 2025.4.9 2.《行业点评|艾芬豪矿业公布 Kamoa-Kakula ► 生产经营情况 1）铜 2025Q2，1、2、3 期选矿厂共研磨了 362 万吨矿石，生产了 112,009 吨铜，同比增长 11%。2025 年上半年的铜产量共计 245,127 吨。 6 月份，Kamoa-Kakula 一期、二期和三期选矿厂共生产铜 28,14 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：挑战 3500 复盘与思考: 7 月 8 日，科技与"反内卷"成为股市上涨的两股重要推力，盘中上证指数接近 3500 点；风险偏好回暖与 资金略微收紧的双重压力下，债市各期限收益率普遍上行。 国内资产方面，股市，大盘受红利概念拖累，涨幅适中，上证指数、沪深 300 上涨 0.70%、0.84%，中证红 利指数小幅下跌 0.05%；科技、光伏板块齐发力，双创表现较为亮眼，科创 50、创业板指上涨 1.40%、2.39%； 小微盘表现同样不弱，中证 2000、万得微盘股指上涨 1.29%、0.80%。债市，10 年、30 年国债活跃券收益率分别 上行 0.3bp、0.5bp 至 1.64%、1.86%；10 年、30 年国债期货主力合约下跌 0.08%、0.22%。 新一轮对等关税税率陆续揭晓，但资本市场暂不急于对此定价。7 月 8 日凌晨，美方陆续公布了包括日本、 韩国、老挝、缅甸在内等 14 个国家的对等关税新税率，从结果来看，其中 8 个国家税率下调，4 个国家税率维 持原状，2 ...