Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3473.13, with a slight increase of 0.02% [1] - The CSI 300 Index fell by 0.43%, closing at 3965.17, indicating a divergence in market performance [2] - The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index experienced declines of 1.21% and 0.66% respectively, reflecting weakness in the innovation-driven sectors [2] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 0.10 basis points to 1.64%, while the 30-year bond yield increased by 0.35 basis points to 1.86% [2] - The issuance of new special government bonds was announced, with a 20-year bond issuance of 400 billion and a 30-year bond issuance of 830 billion, indicating a shift in supply structure [5][6] Commodity Market Trends - The photovoltaic industry chain saw price increases, with polysilicon and industrial silicon rising by 2.86% and 0.69% respectively, driven by government policy signals [3] - The black metals sector continued to show weakness, with coking coal leading the decline at 1.76% [4] Sector Performance - The electric power sector rose by 1.65%, supported by high electricity demand due to ongoing high temperatures [7] - The real estate index increased by 1.75%, driven by expectations of policy optimization in the Shenzhen housing market [7] - The cross-border payment index rose by 2.37%, linked to the People's Bank of China's consultation on new regulations [7] Market Dynamics - The overall market showed a significant reduction in trading volume, with total turnover at 1.20 trillion, down 227.5 billion from the previous week [6] - The market is experiencing a structural shift, with funds flowing into new narratives while other sectors like coal and pharmaceuticals faced outflows [7]

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 7 日 [Table_Title] 上半年，京沪杭蓉领跑土拍市场 [Table_Summary] ►上半年，土地出让金止跌转增，城市间分化明显 连跌四年后，今年 1-6 月土地出让金 1.19 万亿元，同比增长 12%，迎来拐点。重点城市拉动明显，出让金 TOP3、TOP5、 TOP15 的城市占据全国 1/4、1/3、1/2 的市场份额，较去年同 期有 6-9 个百分点的提升。 具体城市上，杭州、北京、上海、成都与其他城市拉开较大差 距，出让金、溢价率双高，扣除这四城后，1-6月出让金同比增 长 0.4%。扣除出让金 TOP15 城后，1-6 月出让金下滑 6%。 ►下半年，核心城市供地力度可能减弱，关注上海 7 月 土拍 根据供地数据，7 月供地起始价 2142 亿元，同比下滑 11%，环 比下滑 29%，整体供地力度已经减弱。 热门城市供地热度能否延续？从起拍价超过 20亿元的高价地块 供给来看，7 月高价地主要集中在上海，别的热门城市供地数 量较少。7 月上海供地起始价同比大幅增长 156%，环比增长 18%，推地涉及南京西路 ...

证券研究报告|行业深度研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 07 日 [Table_Title] 苹果加速入局折叠屏，核心环节有望深度受益 [Table_Title2] 折叠屏手机行业 [Table_Summary] 苹果入局折叠屏产品，带动行业加速发展 传统手机进入存量时代，折叠屏定义智能手机新形态。据 TrendForce 数据，2024 年全球折叠屏手机出货量为 1780 万 台，预计 2027 年有望增长至 7000 万台，2024-27 年 CAGR 为 57.8%。据 IT 之家，苹果有望于 2026 年推出折叠 iPhone，有 望带动折叠屏手机实现加速放量。 增量环节 1：铰链 铰链作为折叠屏手机的核心组件，负责支撑和引导屏幕的开 合、悬停。铰链尺寸虽小但结构复杂，内部包含上百个零部 件，并要满足 20 万次以上的开合寿命，对于零部件的强度、 精度、耐磨性等要求极高。与此同时，在折叠屏整机轻薄化设 计趋势下，铰链设计要在开合顺畅的基础上，兼顾轻薄耐用， 有效改善折痕等问题。因此，各大厂商积极进行产品迭代，对 铰链的结构、材质和工艺等进行全面升级。 按形态看，折叠屏铰链主要 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the pig farming sector amidst stricter environmental regulations and rising pork prices, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in this area [2][12] - The report highlights the expected increase in autumn grain production, driven by favorable soil conditions and government initiatives aimed at enhancing crop yields [1][11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The current main flood season poses risks for agricultural disasters, with regional droughts and floods expected [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture aims to achieve a grain production target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin, focusing on key crops and regions [1][11] - The commercialization of genetically modified crops is anticipated to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency in key varieties [1][11] - Recommended stocks include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development in the planting sector, and leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Denge Seed Industry [1][11] Pig Farming - The average price of external three-way cross pigs is 15.17 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 4.97% [2][12] - The number of breeding sows is projected to reach 40.42 million by May 2025, with a slight increase from previous periods [2][12] - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, including Dekang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, Muyuan Foods, and Wen's Foodstuffs [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2435.68 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.37% [24] - Wheat: The average price is 2450.52 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.18% [27] - Rice: The average price is 2892 yuan/ton, remaining stable [32] - Soybeans: The average price is 3926.32 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.30% [39] - Cotton: The average price is 15130 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.54% [44] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.69 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.75% [50] - Vitamin E averages 69.90 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.16% [57]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The demand ratio for commercial spaces in the global trade center for baby and beauty products has exceeded 14:1, highlighting the strong appeal of Yiwu as a trading hub [1] - The company expects a net profit of 1.63 to 1.7 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.57% to 17.40% [1][39] - The first batch of 389 jewelry industry shops in the global trade center has seen a bidding demand ratio of 4.25:1, indicating significant market interest [1] Summary by Sections Industry & Company Dynamics - The report highlights the strong performance of companies like Kid King, Small Commodity City, and Jihong Co., with expected profit increases of 50% to 100% for Kid King and 13% to 17% for Small Commodity City [4][35][39] - Jihong Co. anticipates a net profit of 130.16 to 137.4 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 97% to 108% [5][31] Investment Recommendations - Five investment themes are suggested: 1. Recovery of offline traffic benefiting traditional retail [6] 2. Continuous upgrades in AI technology benefiting related companies [6] 3. Increased consumer willingness to pay for emotional value benefiting new retail [6] 4. Recovery of cyclical sectors under domestic demand policies [6] 5. Expanding overseas consumption opportunities for domestic brands [6]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [6] Core Insights - The GB300 is expected to start volume production in the second half of the year, with significant advancements in AI performance and capabilities [1][8] - The central government emphasizes high-quality development of the marine economy, with wind power generation rapidly increasing, accounting for over 12% of total power generation [2][10] - There is a strong growth in overseas AI demand, particularly from new enterprises, driving high capital expenditure in AI [3][14] Summary by Sections GB300 Launch - CoreWeave announced the first market delivery of the NVIDIA GB300 NVL72, featuring advanced AI performance with over exaflop capabilities and significant improvements in user response speed and throughput [1][8] Marine Economy Development - The central government is focusing on enhancing the marine economy through policy support and encouraging social capital participation, with wind power generation capacity rapidly increasing [2][10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the AI capital expenditure and related sectors, highlighting the growth potential in the optical module industry and PCB supply chain [3][14] - Specific beneficiary stocks include NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication in the optical module sector, and China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom in the telecommunications sector [3][16][17] - The marine economy sector is also highlighted, with companies like Zhongtian Technology and Hengtong Optic-Electric being potential beneficiaries [4][15]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in instant retail orders, with Meituan's daily orders surpassing 120 million, driven by seasonal demand and substantial subsidies from platforms like Taobao [1][8][9] - Taobao Flash Sale has initiated a 50 billion yuan subsidy plan to stimulate consumer and merchant engagement, resulting in a remarkable increase in order volumes for participating brands [2][9] - The report notes that the baby and personal care product sectors have seen a strong response in a recent recruitment drive, with over 13,000 companies signing up, indicating robust interest from major industry players [3][11] Group 2 - The report provides insights into the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 1.52% and the Hang Seng Technology Index down by 2.34% during the week [15][18] - It mentions the performance of Chinese concept stocks in the US market, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index showing a slight increase of 0.17% [23][24] - The report discusses the ongoing trends in the restaurant and tourism sectors, highlighting the expansion of various brands and the impact of new financing initiatives on the hospitality industry [34][41]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Viewpoints - The humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate towards mass production due to breakthroughs in AI technology and domestic companies' strong demand for core component localization, presenting significant market opportunities [1][14] - The new energy vehicle sector is experiencing stable growth, with several companies reporting increased delivery volumes, driven by the maturation of solid-state battery technology and supportive policies [2][18] - The photovoltaic industry is seeing improved supply-side expectations, with measures to address overcapacity being anticipated, which could lead to a positive marginal change in the industry [3][26] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The launch of the fourth-generation frameless torque motor and hollow driver by the company is expected to enhance the performance and reliability of humanoid robots, with strong domestic demand for localization of core components [1][13] - The entry of major tech companies into the humanoid robot market is expected to accelerate industrialization, with significant opportunities for component suppliers [14][15] New Energy Vehicles - In June 2025, several new energy vehicle manufacturers reported stable month-on-month delivery volumes, with companies like NIO and Xpeng showing growth, while others like Li Auto experienced declines [2][17] - The introduction of new technologies such as solid-state batteries is expected to enhance vehicle performance and reduce costs, contributing to the overall growth of the new energy vehicle market [18][19] Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic sector is addressing overcapacity issues, with government and industry discussions focusing on improving product quality and reducing low-price competition [25][26] - Companies involved in silicon material production and high-efficiency battery technologies are expected to benefit from upcoming supply-side adjustments and cost reductions [3][26][32] - The anticipated reduction in glass production by 30% is expected to alleviate inventory and pricing pressures in the photovoltaic glass market [3][26] Wind Power - The offshore wind power sector is recognized as a key component of marine economic development, with significant growth potential due to advancements in technology and cost reductions [4][28] - The industry is expected to benefit from a stable demand for wind power generation, with ongoing projects and technological improvements enhancing the overall efficiency of wind energy production [28][44]

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 06 日 [Table_Title] "资产荒"卷土重来 [Table_Summary] ► 7 月债市，直接进入票息行情 7 月债市行情紧跟保险、理财和银行的增量资金，或由其推动债市走 出结构性行情。同时三类机构的资金流入节奏或有错期，银行负债或随跨 季结束而迅速改善；理财规模扩容可能集中在上半月，债券购买力或在月 中显现；保险预定利率研究值公布时点大概率在 21 日前后，"降成本"预 期或在中下旬发酵。因此，理论上债市慢牛行情的发展或有层次，短利率 先行，短信用跟进，中长端补涨。 但在实际情形中，虽然月初资金面极为宽松，银行边际负债成本（如 存单等）也在快速下行，然而短久期利率债行情暂未启动。在这一背景 下，市场直接进入票息行情，以基金为代表交易盘开始在信用债、二永债 板块积极挖掘剩余利差，同时在 7-10 年政金债、10 年以上国债等板块寻 找利差机会。 ► "资产荒"，卷土重来 一览当前的市场定价情况，国债 10 年-1 年期限利差约为 30bp，虽然 较此前相对极端的 20bp 有所扩张，但历史分位数并不算高，若将观察周 ...

证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 下半年央行降准降息仍有空间，A 股稳中向上趋势不变 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周美股、A 股领涨全球股指，其中纳指、标普 500 指数再创新高，沪指一度逼近 3500 点。行业板 块方面，煤炭、有色、建材（光伏）等周期板块在"反内卷"政策预期下表现突出，银行指数在上周五大跌后再 度回升，创历史新高。此外，美越贸易协议和中美贸易关系缓和交易下，部分消费电子、纺织服饰等板块也有表 现。外汇方面，美元指数持续走低，弱美元下全球商品价格普遍走强，国内螺纹钢、双焦价格也从底部反弹。 ·市场展望：下半年央行降准降息仍有空间，A 股稳中向上趋势不变。短期来看，全球市场定价核心在于 7 月 9 日 美国与各国贸易协定进展，此前美国总统特朗普表示不考虑延长关税豁免最后期限，但此种表态也可能是一种谈 判策略，美国对部分国家关税也有延期可能。上半年我国经济增长动能强劲，全年经济增速目标达成的压力减 轻。然而对于下半年而言，无论关税最终结果如何，出口对增长 ...