证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 26 日 [Table_Title] 长城汽车 2025 年三季度点评：产品结构持续 优化，新车周期表现强势 [Table_Title2] 长城汽车(601633) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 601633 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 29.45/20.6 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 1,984.57 | | 最新收盘价： | 23.19 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 1,984.57 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 8,557.87 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司近日发布 2025 年第三季度报告，2025 年三季度实现营收 612.47 亿元，同比+20.51%；归母 净利润 22.98 亿元，同比-31.23%。2025 年前三季度，公司实现营收 1535.82 亿元，同比 +7.96%；归母净利润 86.35 亿元，同比-16.97%。 ► 1、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1][7] Core Views - The company has shown significant results in its transition to new energy, with improvements in core profitability and accelerated efforts in smart technology and globalization [6] - The company reported a revenue of 42.236 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.764 billion yuan, up 2.13% year-on-year [2] - The company’s sales volume reached 266,000 units in September 2025, a nearly 25% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales exceeding 100,000 units, marking an 87% increase [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 114.927 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.58%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.055 billion yuan, down 14.66% year-on-year [2] - The company’s non-recurring net profit for the first three quarters was 2.018 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.08% [4] New Energy and Sales Growth - The company’s new energy vehicle segment has shown strong momentum, with September sales of 100,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 87% [3] - The company’s export volume in September reached 60,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 23% [4] Smart Technology Development - The company launched a new smart brand "Tianshu Intelligent" at its fifth technology ecosystem conference, introducing several leading technologies in smart driving, cabin, and chassis [5] - The company is advancing in the L3 autonomous driving sector and has been approved as one of the first pilot units for L3 intelligent connected vehicles in the country [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 190.274 billion, 213.849 billion, and 236.303 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 4.717 billion, 6.265 billion, and 7.695 billion yuan [6] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.48, 0.63, and 0.78 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26.73, 20.13, and 16.39 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 4.64 billion and 2.45 billion yuan respectively in the first three quarters of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 17% and 10% [1]. - The net interest income for the reporting period was 4.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21% [2]. - The company’s asset quality has improved, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.90% as of Q3 2025, down from previous periods [3]. - The company has sufficient leverage capacity, with a leverage ratio of 6.36 times, and a dividend yield of 4.49% [5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue and net profit of 1.63 billion and 0.88 billion yuan, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 12% and 11% respectively [1]. - The company’s operating lease income increased by 4% year-on-year, while net income from fees and commissions saw a significant loss of 2.0 billion yuan [4]. Asset Quality and Provisions - The company made impairment provisions of 860 million yuan, which is a 55% increase year-on-year, indicating a proactive approach to managing asset quality [3]. - The coverage ratio for provisions improved to 403.01% as of Q3 2025 [3]. Financial Forecast - The report maintains revenue forecasts of 6.26 billion, 6.90 billion, and 7.52 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with EPS estimates of 0.56, 0.62, and 0.67 yuan [6][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 11.59 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.10 billion yuan, up 51% year-on-year [1] - The revenue structure shows that commission income, operating income, interest income, and proprietary trading income accounted for 48%, 18%, 17%, and 14% of total revenue, respectively [2] - The company’s market share in financing business increased year-on-year, with a daily average balance of margin financing and securities lending reaching 1.94 billion yuan, a 30% increase year-on-year [3] - The company’s fund distribution revenue increased by 13% year-on-year to 2.54 billion yuan, although it underperformed compared to industry standards [4] - The company’s financial assets reached 106.95 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year, but investment income decreased by 18% to 1.97 billion yuan [5] Revenue and Profitability Analysis - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 16.70 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 44% [9] - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 12.89 billion yuan, reflecting a 34% increase year-on-year [11] - The profit margin for the reporting period was 65.4%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year [8] Financial Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.82 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.7 [9][11] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to reach 15% by 2025 [11]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The domestic chip and semiconductor industry is entering a new "explosion period" driven by external pressures and internal innovation, with significant breakthroughs in domestic chip and storage sectors [16][21][40] - A wave of semiconductor project implementations is expected across the country by October 2025, as the industry collectively pushes for self-sufficiency in response to external challenges [17][51] - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the creation of a new high-tech industry in the next decade, focusing on strategic emerging industries and future technologies [18][56] Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Chip and Storage Sector - Micron's decision to stop supplying server chips to Chinese data centers is expected to cause short-term supply chain fluctuations but will accelerate the domestic substitution process in the long run [16][21] - The global storage chip market is entering a "super cycle," with multiple manufacturers raising prices, potentially leading to further price increases [16][22] - Domestic breakthroughs include the launch of the first fully domestic general-purpose GPU, the Xiyun C600, and the introduction of the integrated packaging mSSD by Jiangbolong, marking a shift from traditional PCB design to chip-level integration [16][30][40] 2. Semiconductor Project Implementation - A collective push for self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry is underway, with various projects set to launch across the country by October 2025 [17][51] - Key projects include a vertically integrated production line for laser radar in Dezhou, a large silicon wafer project in Zhengzhou, and a MEMS sensor production line in Bengbu [41][44][50] - The urgency for establishing a self-controlled semiconductor supply chain is driven by geopolitical pressures and the need for stable supply of critical chips and materials [17][51] 3. Future High-Tech Industry Development - The 20th Central Committee's meeting highlighted plans to cultivate strategic emerging industries such as new energy and materials, and to lay out future industries like quantum technology and biomanufacturing [18][54] - The focus will be on enhancing technological innovation as a core element of new productive forces, with a commitment to deepening the integration of technology and industry [18][56] - The government aims to increase high-quality technological supply and support the construction of a modern industrial system through strategic initiatives [18][56] 4. Investment Recommendations - Beneficiary companies in the semiconductor sector include North China Innovation, Zhongwei Company, and SMIC [19] - In the chip sector, recommended companies include Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and Longxin Zhongke [19] - For storage, companies such as Demingli, Kaipu Cloud, and Jiangbolong are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [19]

证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 大税期+跨月，资金面临考验 [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：资金面"风平浪静" 10 月 20-24 日，税期未至，且公开市场到期与政府债缴款等资金占用也不高， 流动性基本处于利空因素真空期，资金利率持续平稳，隔夜利率持续运行于 OMO 下方，R007 依然围绕 1.47%的中枢窄幅震荡。 然而，资金利率维持低位运行的同时，银行融出趋于下降，存单发行利率也逆 势抬升。我们倾向于认为此次存单提价发行的原因，或更多地落在续发压力上。10 月（截至 24日），存单累计净发行快速升至 6411亿元，净发行量已达年内次高点。 存单集中发行的背后，一方面或是在为明年备案额度报备做准备。四季度为下 一年银行存单备案额度上报的关键节点，为避免次年存单备案额度空间受限，同时 也为用足当年备案额度，部分银行或存在集中发行的需求。同时，由于中秋国庆假 期的影响，10 月仅含 17 个交易日，或一定程度也加大了存单的续发压力。另一方 面则可能是为了补充稳定的负债。 此外 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The weak trend of housing prices continued in September 2025, with a 0.4% month - on - month decline in the prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 cities and a 0.6% decline in second - hand housing prices. [1] - In September, real - estate sales showed resilience through "trading price for volume", with a 48.5% month - on - month increase in the sales area of new homes and a 47.2% increase in sales volume. [1] - After the National Day, second - hand housing transactions in 15 cities increased for two consecutive weeks, indicating strong market resilience, while the recovery momentum of the new - home market weakened. [2] - The industry is accelerating towards "high - quality development", with policy signals indicating a shift from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" and from "incremental development" to "stock operation". [4] 3. Content Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Transaction Data - **Second - hand housing**: In the week of October 17 - 23, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 15 cities was 2.33 million square meters, a 7% week - on - week increase, reaching 79% of the annual high. Although it decreased by 14% year - on - year due to the high base last year, it still had a 11% positive growth compared to the same period in 2023. [2] - **New homes**: In the week of October 17 - 23, the transaction area of new homes in 38 cities was 2.82 million square meters, a 3% week - on - week increase, but a 19% year - on - year decline. From October 1 - 23, the year - on - year decline widened to 24%. [2] 3.2 City - Level Analysis - **Second - hand housing**: First - tier cities' weekly transactions declined for two consecutive weeks, with a 2% decline this week. Second - and third - tier cities performed well, with a 14% and 12% week - on - week increase in transaction areas respectively. [3] - **New homes**: The new - home market showed "first - tier cities rebounding, second - and third - tier cities weakening". First - tier cities' transactions rebounded by 15% week - on - week, and third - tier cities increased by 12%, while second - tier cities decreased by 7%. [3] 3.3 Key City Observations - **First - tier cities**: From October 17 - 23, the second - hand housing transaction area in first - tier cities decreased by 2% week - on - week and 21% year - on - year. The new - home transaction area increased by 15% week - on - week and decreased by 19% year - on - year. [29] - **Other key cities**: In Hangzhou, the second - hand and new - home transaction areas decreased by 4% and 38% respectively compared to the previous week. In Chengdu, they increased by 12% and 2% respectively. [30] 3.4 Housing Price Observations - **Second - hand housing**: In September 2025, the second - hand housing price index in first - tier cities continued to decline, with a 1.0% month - on - month decline and a 3.2% year - on - year decline. [55] - **New homes**: In September 2025, the price of newly built commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year. [55]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum (002532) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has achieved a revenue of 22.32 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.34%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.34 billion yuan, up 8.31% year-on-year [2] - The company continues to focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a significant increase in gross profit margin from 20.25% in Q2 2025 to 27.23% in Q3 2025, driven by rising aluminum prices and lower electricity costs [3] - The company is progressing well in its capacity expansion, with a 200,000-ton electrolytic aluminum capacity under construction, expected to be operational by the end of November 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.994 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.25% year-on-year and a decrease of 5.53% quarter-on-quarter. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.256 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 24.30% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.41% [2] - The company forecasts revenues of 30.8 billion yuan, 33.8 billion yuan, and 37.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.03 billion yuan, 6.16 billion yuan, and 7.16 billion yuan [5] Profitability and Efficiency - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 23.3% in 2024 to 26.3% in 2027, reflecting ongoing cost control measures and operational efficiencies [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.08 yuan, 1.32 yuan, and 1.54 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5] Capacity Expansion - The company is undertaking a green low-carbon energy efficiency upgrade for its 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, with the construction of an additional 200,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity progressing smoothly [4]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the CPI is lower than expected, which enhances the probability of interest rate cuts, leading to an upward trend in metal prices [28][44] - Precious metals are experiencing price fluctuations, with gold and silver prices showing a downward trend recently, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to macroeconomic factors [28][44] - The report highlights the ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on market dynamics, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade relations and the potential for further economic negotiations [45][48] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - This week, COMEX gold fell by 3.30% to $4,126.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver dropped by 4.38% to $48.41 per ounce. SHFE gold decreased by 6.17% to ¥938.10 per gram, and SHFE silver fell by 7.49% to ¥11,332.00 per kilogram [28][30] - The gold price has increased over 60% this year, but recent fluctuations indicate a potential short-term correction as the market enters an overbought zone [44][48] - The report notes a significant reduction in holdings for major ETFs, with SPDR gold ETF decreasing by 9,186.33 ounces and SLV silver ETF by 89,770.80 ounces [30] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper rose by 3.21% to $10,947.00 per ton, aluminum increased by 2.81% to $2,856.50 per ton, zinc went up by 2.62% to $3,019.50 per ton, and lead climbed by 2.28% to $2,016.50 per ton [54] - SHFE market showed similar trends with copper up by 3.95% to ¥87,720.00 per ton, aluminum up by 1.51% to ¥21,225.00 per ton, zinc up by 2.48% to ¥22,355.00 per ton, and lead up by 3.05% to ¥17,595.00 per ton [54] - The report emphasizes that the supply of copper is facing challenges, with a projected production growth of only 1.4% in 2025, which is below the demand growth rate of approximately 3% [9][22] Small Metals - Magnesium prices decreased by 0.45% to ¥17,840 per ton, while demand remains stable, leading to a reduction in inventory levels [18] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices are under pressure, with molybdenum iron prices down by 2.12% to ¥27.75 per ton, reflecting cautious market sentiment [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing concerns about global debt and monetary easing, with U.S. debt exceeding $38 trillion and projected budget deficits [20][49] - The report identifies several gold mining companies as potential beneficiaries of rising gold prices, including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold Group [20][49] - For silver, the report anticipates a supply shortage of approximately 3,660 tons by 2025, supporting a bullish outlook for silver prices [49]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 44.072 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.398 billion yuan, up 15.14% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.13%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of only 2.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.630 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 25.31% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.09% [2] - The company's gross profit margin in Q3 2025 was 17.95%, down from 18.10% in Q2 2025, attributed to a high proportion of externally purchased alumina despite rising aluminum prices [3] - As of Q3 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 10.675 billion yuan, a significant increase from 7.570 billion yuan in H1 2025 and 8.201 billion yuan in Q3 2024. The asset-liability ratio was 23.21%, down from 23.28% in H1 2025 and 24.99% in Q3 2024, indicating a strong financial position [4] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 57.6 billion yuan, 58.9 billion yuan, and 60.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.8%, 2.3%, and 2.2% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 6.5 billion yuan, 7.41 billion yuan, and 8.29 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 47.4%, 14.0%, and 11.9% respectively [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.87 yuan, 2.14 yuan, and 2.39 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining the profit forecast [5] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 12.36, 10.85, and 9.70 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Profitability and Valuation - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 18.4% in 2025 to 22.0% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19.2% in 2025, 18.5% in 2026, and 17.7% in 2027, reflecting strong financial performance [6] - The asset-liability ratio is expected to decrease significantly to 3.0% by 2027, indicating improved financial stability [8]