证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 11 月，理财规模温和增长 [Table_Summary] ►11 月，理财规模小增 700+亿元 非银机构需求回升，非银机构开始加杠杆。平均杠杆水平由前一 周的 111.71%升至 112.19 %。日度来看，由周一的 111.83%逐步加杠 杆至周四 112.55%的区间高点，周五小幅回调 0.62pct 至 111.92%。 ►债基久期继续压缩 11 月 24-28 日，或受基金赎回相关传闻扰动，债市仍然维持震荡格 局。在此背景下，各机构对久期的博弈维持谨慎，利率型与信用型中长债 基继续压缩久期。按照稳定模型计算，利率型中长债基久期周度平均值由 前一周的 3.51 年压缩至 3.49 年，信用型中长债基久期周度平均值则由前 一周的 2.14 年压缩至 2.13 年。 与此同时，中短债基金久期也在压缩，久期均值由前一周的 1.40年压 缩至 1.38 年；短债基金久期中枢则由前一周的 0.75 年小幅升至 0.76年。 风险提示 本周（24-28 日）理财规模转降，环比降 1328 亿元至 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 综合 PMI 跌破 50，货币待加力 11 月 30 日， 统计局发布 11 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.2%，前值 49.0%。非制造业 PMI 49.5%，前值 50.1%。关注以下几个方面： 第一，服务业 PMI 下跌，拖累综合 PMI 跌破 50%。11 月综合 PMI 产出指数回落 0.3 个百分点至 49.7%， 这是自 2023 年初以来综合 PMI首度跌破荣枯线。拆分来看，服务业、制造业、建筑业生产或商务活动指数环比 分别为-0.7、+0.3、+0.5 个百分点，可见主要是服务业的拖累。10 月适逢国庆中秋假期，居民出行、购物、旅 游、文体娱乐以及住宿餐饮消费表现较好，11 月进入淡季，这些分项均出现不同程度回落。不过这种季节性， 往年并不特别明显。今年 11 月服务业商务活动分项的回落幅度（-0.7 个百分点），在最近 10 年中仅次于 2022 和 2023 年同期（分别是-1.9 和-0.8 个百分点），其他年份多为持平或小幅上升（平均+0.5 个百分点）。 第二，制 ...

Market Review - Global stock indices experienced a broad increase, with the Nasdaq, Taiwan Weighted Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index leading the gains. In the A-share market, major indices mostly rose, with micro-cap stocks, the CSI 2000, and the ChiNext Index showing the highest increases. The overall trading volume in the A-share market has decreased for two consecutive weeks, with net redemptions in equity ETFs and a slight increase in margin financing. Growth style stocks rebounded significantly, particularly in sectors like optical modules, AI applications, and lithium battery electrolytes, while dividend sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, banks, and coal declined. In the commodity market, metal prices rose, with London spot silver and LME copper reaching historical highs, while domestic coking coal showed weakness [1][2][4]. Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to enter a layout period for the year-end rally. In December, the market will be under observation for significant domestic and international policies, which may gradually increase risk appetite. The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut is high, alleviating concerns over dollar liquidity and supporting the appreciation of the RMB, which is favorable for foreign investment in Chinese assets. Domestically, key meetings in mid-December will set the economic development goals and macro policy tone for 2026, with policies aimed at reducing competition and promoting consumption likely to benefit from policy catalysts. Key areas of focus include: 1) investment themes related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, energy storage, military industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals; 2) sectors benefiting from improved overseas liquidity, such as non-ferrous metals; 3) Hong Kong tech stocks that have seen significant adjustments [2][4]. Funding and Liquidity - The inflow of incremental funds into the market has slowed, leading to an accelerated rotation among industries. Since November, the daily trading volume in the A-share market has mostly been below 2 trillion yuan, continuing a trend of stock-based competition. As year-end approaches and investor risk appetite decreases, the speed of industry rotation has notably increased. 1) Margin financing data shows a net outflow of 13.9 billion yuan as of November 27, marking the first monthly net outflow since May; margin buying accounted for about 10% of A-share trading volume. 2) Equity ETFs saw a net outflow of 40.9 billion yuan this week, with technology-focused ETFs like ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 experiencing the largest redemptions, indicating a rise in profit-taking among investors as the tech sector rebounds. 3) Additionally, ETFs heavily held by state-owned funds saw a net inflow of 12.3 billion yuan last Friday, suggesting that the "national team" will continue to play a stabilizing role in the market during periods of increased volatility [4][30]. Economic Fundamentals - The PMI remains below the expansion threshold, indicating that a shift to profit-driven A-share performance will require more time. Since the fourth quarter, both supply and demand in the domestic economy have shown signs of weakening, reflected in declining industrial output and expanding declines in key real estate indicators. The manufacturing PMI for November was 49.2%, remaining below the expansion threshold for eight consecutive months, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in economic sentiment. The third-quarter reports confirmed that corporate earnings are at a low point, with broader improvements in profitability expected to wait until 2026 [4][30]. Policy Observation Window - The period from early to mid-December is crucial for observing domestic and international policies, which may gradually elevate market risk appetite and set the stage for a year-end rally. On the international front, the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 10 is anticipated to result in a significant probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. Domestically, the political bureau meeting and the central economic work conference will likely establish the economic development goals and macro policy tone for 2026, with expectations for policies to drive institutional deployment in new year-end rally sectors, particularly in areas focused on reducing competition, promoting consumption, and fostering new productivity [4][30].

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 大跌修复后，或是一段震荡期。此阶段，科技难以彻底走弱 的信心&稳市预期是支撑项，而地缘局势反复的可能性&美股行 情再受扰动的担忧等压力项并存。事实上，2019年5月、2020 年 3 月和 2025 年 4 月的大跌缺口回补后，均有一段趋势难明 的震荡区间。 如何应对可能到来的震荡期？保持轮动思维或是关键。我们 绘制了 SW 一级行业 2025 年开年至 11 月 20 日的涨跌幅（纵 轴）和 11 月 21-28 日涨跌幅（横轴）的散点图。其右上角适 合博弈趋势，主要与 AI 和半导体相关；左上角适合博弈轮 动，主要与有色和新能源相关；左下角适合博弈高低切，包 括消费和红利；右下角暂无"反转型"行业分布。若行情进入 震荡状态，左上角和左下角的行业更值得关注。 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 重建共识 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ►回顾：缺口回补，路途颠簸 11 月 24-28 日，权益行情修复，转债继续震荡。截至 2025年 11 月 28 日，万得全 A 收盘价为 6205.6 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [6]. Core Insights - The company sold 240,000 pounds of U₃O₈ in Q3 2025, with an average spot price of approximately $74.66 per pound, leading to total revenue of $17.71 million, a 338% year-over-year increase [2][22]. - The company expects to achieve an annual U₃O₈ production of approximately 1 million pounds in 2025, with Q4 production expected to contribute significantly to this target [9][10]. - The average realized price for U₃O₈ in Q3 2025 was $72.38 per pound, with a gross margin of 26% [3][22]. - The company has a total uranium inventory of 2.125 million pounds as of September 30, 2025, which includes 485,000 pounds of finished U₃O₈ [4]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in cash profits due to lower mining costs and expects gross margins to continue to grow through 2026 [5][13]. Summary by Sections Uranium Business - **Production**: In Q3 2025, the company mined approximately 465,000 pounds of uranium ore, with a total uranium content of about 1.245 million pounds U₃O₈ as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - **Sales**: The company sold 240,000 pounds of U₃O₈ in Q3 2025, with a total revenue of $17.71 million [2][22]. - **Pricing**: The weighted average realized price was $72.38 per pound, with a gross margin of 26% [3]. - **Inventory**: The total uranium inventory was 2.125 million pounds, with an increase due to production from various mines [4]. - **Cost**: The average cost of finished U₃O₈ inventory was approximately $53 per pound, reflecting the company's efforts to improve production efficiency [7]. - **Guidance**: The company expects to mine between 5.5 million to 8 million tons of ore in 2025, containing approximately 875,000 to 1,435,000 pounds of U₃O₈ [8]. Rare Earth Business - **Heavy Rare Earth**: The company successfully produced 99.9% pure dysprosium oxide, exceeding commercial specifications [15]. - **Price Trends**: The price of praseodymium-neodymium (NdPr) increased by approximately 25% from June 30, 2025, to September 30, 2025 [17]. - **Project Development**: The company is advancing the Donald project, which is expected to produce approximately 7,200 tons of rare earth oxides annually [18]. Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: The company reported total revenues of $17.71 million in Q3 2025, a significant increase compared to the previous year [22]. - **Net Loss**: The net loss for Q3 2025 was $16.7 million, an improvement from the previous quarter [22]. - **Liquidity Position**: As of September 30, 2025, the company had $298.5 million in working capital, positioning it favorably for project advancement [24].

[Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 诺里尔斯克镍业 2025Q3 镍产量环比增长 18%至 5.36 万吨，铜产量环比减少 4%至 10.01 万吨 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►2025Q3 生产经营情况 1、镍 2025Q3，综合镍产量为 5.36 万吨，同比减少 4%，环比增 长 18%，环比增长主要归功于第二季度停产期间积累的加工原 材料数量增加，以及科拉矿区硫化镍精矿产量提高。报告期内 生产的镍几乎全部来自公司自有原料（5.35 万吨）。 2、铜 2025Q3，合并铜产量（包括 Trans-Baikal 部门）为 10.01 万吨，同比减少 7%，环比减少 4%，全部产自公司自有矿源。 产量下降的原因是加工过程中分散矿石的比例增加，而分散矿 石的铜含量相对较低。 外贝加尔分部（Bystrinsky 项目）铜精矿产量环比下降 10%至 1.6 万吨，原因是精矿加工量减少以及加工原料中铜含 量降低。 3、铂族金属（PGM） 2025Q3，钯金产量为 61. ...

[Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Title] PTANTAM TBK 2025Q3 镍铁产/销量分别环比下 降 7%、增长 162%至 4,242 吨、2,419 吨，镍矿石 产/销量分别环比下降 23%、下降 30%至 345 万湿 吨、306 万湿吨 ►分业务生产经营情况 1、镍铁 2025Q3，ANTAM 镍铁产量为 4,242 吨，环比下降 7%， 同比下降 16%。 2025Q3，ANTAM 镍铁销量为 2,419 吨，环比增长 162%，同比下降 50%。 2、镍矿 2025Q3，ANTAM 镍矿石产量为 3,450,567 吨，环比下降 23%，同比增长 11%。 2025Q3，ANTAM 镍矿石销量为 3,062,154 吨，环比下降 30%，同比增长 30%。 3、黄金 2025Q3，ANTAM 黄金产量达到 151 千克，环比下降 27%，同比下降 50%。 2025Q3，ANTAM 黄金产品销量达到 4,804 千克，环比 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The overseas AI industry is experiencing continuous iteration of foundational large models, with increased computational power investments. Google has launched the Gemini 3 series AI models, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge against OpenAI and Anthropic [13][20][23]. - Anthropic has released Claude Opus 4.5, which shows improvements in general intelligence capabilities, safety, and programming skills [14][34]. - Alibaba's Q3 report indicates a high growth rate in the domestic AI sector, with AI-related product revenues achieving triple-digit year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters [16][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas AI Industry Development - Google continues to enhance its AI hardware and software, launching the Gemini 3 series and the Nano Banana Pro image generation model, which supports 4K resolution and advanced image processing capabilities [13][20][23]. - Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.5 has been released, showcasing enhanced intelligence, safety, and programming capabilities, making it a strong competitor in the AI market [14][34]. - AWS plans to invest up to $50 billion to expand AI and supercomputing capabilities for U.S. government clients, indicating a structural boost in AI computational demand [15][40]. 2. Domestic AI Acceleration - Alibaba's Q3 report shows revenues of 247.8 billion yuan, with cloud business revenue growing by 34% and AI-related products experiencing significant demand [16][41]. - The launch of Alibaba's "Qianwen" and "Lingguang" AI applications indicates a strategic push into consumer AI, with rapid user growth [42]. - Deepseek has introduced the Math-V2 model, focusing on self-verifying mathematical reasoning, which is expected to enhance the overall AI industry's growth [18][49]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Beneficial stocks in AI applications include Wanxing Technology, Danghong Technology, and others, while AI computing stocks include Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and others [7][50].

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 新房成交环比三连增 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 1）周度： 新房成交底部企稳，连续三周环比回升。本周（11月 21-27日），38城新房成交面积达 279 万平方米，环 比增长 5%（上周为 20%），修复斜率虽有放缓，但绝对规模仍处于近四周高位（215-292 万平），修复至年内 高点的 53%。 二手房成交连续两周高位盘整。15 城二手房成交面积录得 221 万平方米，环比微增 0.3%，过去四周成交 稳定在 213-226 万平区间，绝对量维持在年内高点的 75%，市场活跃度尚可。 同比维度，受去年"924"新政后销售放量形成的高基数压制，同比增速持续承压。38 城新房成交同比降 幅扩至 35%（上周为降 19%），连续第九周录得同比负增长。15 城二手房成交同比下滑 16%，连续七周负增 长。 2）月度： 11 月 1-27 日，高频数据显示新房降幅走扩。38 城新房成交同比下滑 33%，降幅较 10 月的下滑 27%进一 步扩大，显示新房市场去 ...

Liquidity Overview - In November, the liquidity environment was stable, with overnight rates peaking above 1.50% twice during the month, reaching a high of 1.54% due to factors like Double Eleven preparation funds and government bond payments[1] - The average overnight rate (R001) for September to November was 1.36%, 1.35%, and 1.37% respectively, indicating a stable liquidity trend despite short-term fluctuations[2] Future Outlook - For the week of December 1-5, liquidity is expected to ease, with R001 likely returning to the range of 1.35-1.36% supported by fiscal spending[3] - Government bond net payments are projected to significantly decrease, with an estimated payment of 866 billion yuan compared to 3,289 billion yuan the previous week, limiting liquidity disturbances[4] Open Market Operations - From December 1-5, the total amount maturing in the central bank's open market operations is approximately 25,118 billion yuan, including 15,118 billion yuan in reverse repos and 10,000 billion yuan in 3-month reverse repos[5] - The central bank is expected to continue its practice of rolling over 3-month reverse repos to alleviate maturity pressure[6] Credit Market Insights - In November, the average 3-month bill rate was 0.56%, up 28 basis points year-on-year, indicating a potential improvement in credit conditions[7] - Major banks have shifted to net selling of bills for the first time since April, with a net sale of 46 billion yuan in November compared to a net purchase of 1,878 billion yuan in the same period last year[8] Government Debt Issuance - The net issuance of government bonds in November was 12,660 billion yuan, exceeding the initial expectation of 12,300 billion yuan, but down 5,657 billion yuan year-on-year[9] - For December, the net issuance is expected to drop to around 5,200 billion yuan, marking a significant decrease from previous months[10] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit decreased in November, with a weighted average issuance rate of 1.64%, down from 1.67% in October[11] - The maturity pressure for certificates of deposit is expected to rise in December, with an estimated maturity scale of 37,000 billion yuan, which is relatively high compared to the median of 28,000 billion yuan for 2025[12]