HUAXI Securities

Search documents
传媒行业周报系列2025年第26周:多国关税谈判期限将至,25H1电影票房为近六年最高-20250706
HUAXI Securities· 2025-07-06 12:58
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the upcoming deadline for tariff negotiations, which may increase external trade uncertainties. However, there remains a cautious optimism regarding the substantive implementation of existing trade agreements [2][23]. - The film box office for the first half of 2025 reached 29.231 billion yuan, marking a 22.91% year-on-year increase and the best performance in six years. The top five films were all domestic productions, showcasing the resilience of domestic entertainment consumption and the strengthening of the content ecosystem [2][24]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the following areas: 1) Hong Kong internet leaders, 2) the gaming industry, and 3) the film and cultural tourism sector, driven by consumption policies that promote recovery [3][24]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In the week of June 30 to July 4, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, while the SW Media Index increased by 2.7%, ranking 6th among 31 industries [10][16]. Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films for the week were "Jurassic World: Rebirth" with a box office of 18.175 million yuan, "Detective Conan: The Lone Eye's Residue" with 8.402 million yuan, and "F1: Speeding" with 7.569 million yuan [25][26]. Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games were "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Delta Force," while the top three Android games were "Heartbeat Town," "Honkai: Star Rail," and "Staff Sword Legend" [25][26]. TV Series - The top three TV series based on broadcast index were "In the Name of the Law," "Splendid Blossoms," and "Book Roll Dream" [28][29]. Variety Shows & Animation - The top variety show was "Ha Ha Ha Ha Season 5," followed by "Run, Brother Season 9" and "New Rap 2025" [30]. The leading animation was "Cang Yuan Tu: The Beauty Award" [31].
周专题:美国与越南达成最新贸易协议,关注家电行业的越南产能布局
HUAXI Securities· 2025-07-06 12:58
证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 周专题:美国与越南达成最新贸易协议,关注家电行业的 越南产能布局 [Table_Title2] 家电行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 周专题:美国与越南达成最新贸易协议,关注 家电行业的越南产能布局 据美国当地时间 7 月 2 日,美国总统特朗普宣布,美国与越 南达成贸易协议,美国将对进口越南的商品征收 20%关税, 对通过越南转运输美国的其他国家商品征收 40%关税,而越 南将对美国"完全开放市场"。其中,本次贸易协定的 20% 基础关税适用于所有从越南直接出口到美国的商品,高于此 前 10%的临时税率,但低于今年 4 月初特朗普宣布征收的 "对等关税"中针对越南出口美国商品进口关税税率 46%; 而 40%的惩罚性关税适用于"转口贸易"商品,包括仅在越 南进行简单加工或直接进行转运以规避原产国关税的第三国 商品。 我们认为,本次美国与越南达成新的贸易协议,相较于"对 等关税"时的税率有所好转,对有越南本土产能建设的企业 而言,关税成本得到一定程度上的降低,此前对相关企业的 担忧或 ...
公募REITs周速览:嘉实京东仓储REIT拟扩募
HUAXI Securities· 2025-07-06 12:53
证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 嘉实京东仓储 REIT 拟扩募 嘉实京东仓储 REIT 拟扩募西安、合肥 2个物流项目。7月 5 日,嘉实京东仓储基础设施 REIT 公告,拟扩募西安、合肥 2 个项目,这是继红土创新盐田港、中金普洛斯之后第三只启动 扩募的仓储物流 REITs 项目,其中,西安项目包括两栋分拣中 心、两栋综合物流建筑、其他附属用房及地下配套,建面合计 10.72 万平方米;合肥项目包括十一栋物流仓库、一栋设备用 房及其他附属用房,建面合计 14.56 万平方米。 大类资产角度,本周 A 股、转债和黄金白银表现亮眼,沪 深 300、中证500、中证转债、COMEX黄金、沪金、沪银均跑 赢 REITs,恒生科技表现不佳。 ►二级市场 七大 REITs 板块仅仓储物流下跌,其他资产有所反弹。交 通设施板块上周跌幅最大,达 2.19%,本周则以 1.16%的涨幅 领先,主要是东部经济发达区域的路产(华夏南京交通高速、 浙商沪杭甬、招商高速公路)的强势反弹带动,这些路产的车 流量和路费收入同比基本也有显著的增长。仓储物流 ...
流动性跟踪:存单发行利率创春节后新低
HUAXI Securities· 2025-07-05 15:04
证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Summary] ►概况:7 月初,资金面如期转松 跨季结束,月初央行惯例大额回笼,但资金面依然如期转松。全周(6 月 30日 -7 月 4 日)逆回购到期 20275 亿元,央行也在有意回收季末投放的流动性,7 月初 以来,央行单日净回笼规模均高于 2500 亿,周四、周五更是升至 4500 亿以上。 尽管央行回笼步调加速,但资金面仍呈季节性转松态势。隔夜资金利率下探至 OMO 利率以下,R001 由周一(6 月 30 日)的 2.30%连续下行至周五的 1.37%,跌 破 OMO 利率;DR001 由 1.51%下行至 1.31%,逐步逼近 1.30%一线;7 天资金价 格也回落至 1.5%水平以下。 与此同时,存单大额到期冲击告一段落,7月到期规模降至2.8万亿元,处于历 史相对中性水平,银行续发压力减弱。叠加跨季后银行负债端压力缓释,银行融出 规模持续攀升,7 月初存单一级发行利率持续下行,国股行 1 年期存单一级加权发 行利率全线下行至 1.60%以下,为今年春节以来最低点。 ►展望:资金面或迎来"平稳期" 往后看,下周(7 月 7-11 日)季初效应仍存, ...
有色能源金属行业周报:缅甸锡矿进口量连续多月低于1万吨警戒线,供应偏紧预期对锡价或有支撑-20250705
HUAXI Securities· 2025-07-05 15:03
证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 5 日 缅甸锡矿进口量连续多月低于 1 万吨警戒线, 供应偏紧预期对锡价或有支撑 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►本周沪镍价格环比上涨,贸易商仍存在补库需求 截止到 7 月 4 日,LME 镍现货结算价报收 15,120 美元/ 吨,较 6 月 27 日上涨 0. 6%,LME 镍总库存为 202,470.00 吨,较 6 月 27 日减少 0.89%;沪镍报收 12.24 万元/吨,较 6 月 27 日上涨 1.50%,沪镍库存为 24,922.00 吨,较 6 月 27 日 减少 0.83%;截止到 6 月 27 日,硫酸镍报收 28,500.00 元/吨, 较 6 月 27 日价格持平。根据 SMM,从供给端来看,国内市场 方面,菲律宾镍矿的 CIF 价格较高,冶炼厂的生产成本显著增 加。华北地区部分冶炼厂的生产负荷有所下调,且由于菲律宾 镍矿品位的下降,国内金属产量或面临走弱的预期。印尼方 面,主流冶炼厂的生产成本出现倒挂,部分冶炼厂已经开始进 行检修,加之可 ...
二手房销售同比连降四周
HUAXI Securities· 2025-07-05 12:00
[Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 05 日 [Table_Title] 二手房销售同比连降四周 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 二手房成交环比由升转降,同比连降四周,本周降幅扩大。本周(6 月 27 日-7 月 3 日),15 城二手房成交 面积 218 万平,略低于过去四周 224-240 万平区间,环比下滑 9%。同比来看,本周 15 城二手房成交表现较 弱,下滑 12%,降幅扩大 8 个百分点。 分城市层级看,一线城市二手房周成交面积连跌六周后小幅转升,本周环比增长 6%。其中深圳增幅较高, 环比增长 21%,成交面积 15 万平,过去四周介于 11-15 万平;上海环比增长 5%,成交面积 41万平,过去四周 介于 39-48 万平;北京环比增长 4%,成交面积 39 万平,略高于过去四周的 34-38 万平区间。同比来看,一线 城市连跌四周,本周下滑 13%,降幅较上周扩大 2 个百分点,其中北京和上海分别下滑 13%和 18%,而深圳增 长 5%。 二线、三线二手房环比均由升转降,本周环比分别下滑 18%、21%。二线城市中,青岛、南宁跌幅居前 ...
RWA:代币化新世界
HUAXI Securities· 2025-07-05 11:59
Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the stock price will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 15% or more within the next six months [101]. Core Insights - Real World Assets (RWA) leverage tokenization technology to enhance asset liquidity, lower barriers to entry, and introduce smart contract mechanisms, enabling unprecedented participation in the financial system for both individuals and institutions [3][4]. - The RWA market is on the brink of explosive growth, with high-frequency assets like U.S. Treasuries, real estate, and credit rapidly moving on-chain, although challenges such as cross-border compliance and pricing mechanisms remain critical [5][4]. Summary by Sections 01 RWA: Connecting Tradition and Future - RWA has experienced explosive growth since 2021, with the total value of global on-chain RWA assets surpassing $23.3 billion by June 2025 [14]. - RWA significantly lowers investment barriers, allowing previously illiquid assets like real estate and art to enter the market in a more flexible form, thus promoting inclusive finance [19][20]. 02 China RWA: Vast Blue Ocean Market Potential - The RWA sector in China is poised to become a key component of the "digital-physical integration" national strategy, with significant potential in carbon assets, green energy, and industrial data [4][29]. - The regulatory framework in Hong Kong is evolving to support RWA, with the introduction of a stablecoin regulatory sandbox and a focus on compliance and innovation [30][38]. 03 Global RWA: Merging Old Order with New Paradigms - The global RWA market is witnessing a surge in participation from various countries, with significant initiatives in the U.S., EU, Singapore, and UAE aimed at integrating RWA into financial systems [75][76]. - The market for tokenized real estate is projected to reach $30 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 60% [86]. 04 Investment Recommendations - Beneficial stocks in the RWA sector include companies like Xiexin Energy Technology, Longxin Group, and others, with specific price targets and market capitalizations provided [98].
因需而变!CIPS业务规则即将修订
HUAXI Securities· 2025-07-05 11:59
Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The People's Bank of China is seeking public opinion on the revised rules for the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), aiming to enhance the system's adaptability for participant expansion and functional upgrades, thereby supporting the internationalization of the Renminbi [1] - The dual upgrade of the "system + account" is expected to attract more global banks and payment institutions to join the CIPS network, accelerating the globalization of Renminbi cross-border payment infrastructure [2] - The implementation of the "Stablecoin Regulation" in Hong Kong on August 1, 2025, is anticipated to create a new channel for Renminbi cross-border payments, independent of the SWIFT system, facilitating the internationalization of the Renminbi [2] Summary by Sections Participant Management Mechanism Optimization - The draft rules enhance the participant management mechanism and clarify detailed processes for account management, funding, and settlement, which is expected to attract more global participants to the CIPS network [2] - The modernization of rules is projected to shift CIPS from "scale expansion" to "quality and efficiency collaboration" [2] Settlement Efficiency Improvement - The draft rules specify the settlement mechanism and standardize various business behaviors, which will reduce error rates and manual intervention costs [3] - Streamlined processes and enhanced automation in the settlement phase are expected to significantly shorten the cross-border Renminbi payment cycle and improve capital turnover efficiency [3] - The establishment of a high-efficiency and secure settlement mechanism in Hong Kong aims to address payment efficiency and security issues in high-risk areas [3] Expanded Application Scope - The draft rules support mixed settlement models to meet diverse funding settlement needs, which will broaden financial support for cross-border trade settlements [4] - These measures are designed to consider the specific needs of overseas participants, further promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [4] Investment Recommendations - Beneficiary companies include Sifang Jingchuang, Jingbeifang, Chutianlong, Xinguodu, Newland, Lakala, Huafeng Superfiber, Yuxin Technology, Xincheng Technology, Hengbao Co., and Changliang Technology [5]
一周市场数据复盘20250704
HUAXI Securities· 2025-07-05 09:20
证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 5 日 [Table_Title] 一周市场数据复盘 20250704 [Table_Summary] ► 宽基指数表现 上周市场普涨,大盘板块涨幅相较小盘板块更加明显, 沪深 300、创业板指分别上涨 1.54%、1.50%;科创 50 指数 下跌 0.35%。 今年以来小盘风格表现最好,中证 2000、中证 1000 指 数涨跌幅排名靠前,分别为 14.16%、5.95%。 ► 行业指数表现 上周涨幅最大的行业是钢铁、建筑材料,分别上涨 5.06%、3.96%;跌幅最大的行业是计算机、非银金融,分别 下跌 1.28%、0.72%。 今年以来有色金属、银行行业表现最好,分别上涨 19.21%、17.77%。 PE 分位数最高的三个行业是钢铁、国防军工、建筑材 料,分别为 100%、99%、99%;PE 分位数最低的三个行业 是食品饮料、农林牧渔、家用电器,分别为 8%、10%、 28%。 ► 行业拥挤度 我们使用行业指数最近一周价格和成交金额变动的马氏 距离衡量拥挤度。 上周建筑材料行业出现明显交易拥挤。 风险提示 量化报告的结 ...
海外策略周报:本周欧洲和亚太市场震荡,港股进一步波动-20250705
HUAXI Securities· 2025-07-05 09:17
证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 5 日 [Table_Title] 本周欧洲和亚太市场震荡,港股进一步波动 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:本周欧洲和亚太市场出现明显震荡,港 股出现进一步波动。本周美股市场延续反弹;另一方面,一些 交易日美股期指出现明显波动。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈 率上升至 34.9,市盈率处于偏高状态;费城半导体指数市盈率 迅速上升至 51.1,维持在 50 以上的高位区间;美国科技股权重 占比较大的纳斯达克指数的市盈率上升至 42.4,仍处于高于 40 的偏高位阶段,由于美股科技股估值处于偏高位区间存在杀估 值的可能性,以及美股科技股新一轮基本面看点还需等待,叠 加特朗普政策的不确定性影响,大型科技企业出现多次高管减 持,美股科技股仍然容易出现调整趋势;纳斯达克指数、费城 半导体指数和 TAMAMA 等美股科技指数仍然容易出现承压。 目前标普 500 席勒市盈率进一步上升至 38.31,标普 500 席勒市 盈率处于高位区间,仍然大幅高于历史平均数和中位数。此 外 ...