证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 假回落，真加速 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ►回顾：假动作，真突破 8 月 18-22 日，类权益市场继续走强。截至 2025 年 8 月 22 日，万得全 A 收盘价为 6060.82，较 8 月 15 日上涨 3.87%；中 证转债同期上涨 2.83%，各价位估值均明显拉伸。 本周市场的上涨伴随着一系列"假动作"。市场总在行情加速 不久后下跌，随后再度上涨，并突破前高。这样的"假动 作"反复提示，牛市环境下，短暂且温和的调整很难成为判 断行情转向的信号。 结构来看，主线&补涨行情并存，科技行情继续走强，白酒& 电力演绎补涨行情。半导体在前半周的上涨带有补涨色彩， 随后的大涨则与利好推动资金情绪快速发酵相关。 评级及分析师信息 [Table_Author] 分析师：田乐蒙 邮箱：tianlm@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120524010001 分析师：肖金川 邮箱：xiaojc@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S11205 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's operating performance has significantly improved, with cash flow and advance payments being reasonable [3] - The revenue and profit for the first half of 2025 met market expectations, despite a year-on-year decline [2] - The growth in ordinary liquor sales has compensated for some declines in high-end liquor, indicating a stabilizing distribution system [4] - The company has effectively controlled costs, showing potential for recovery in profitability [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.701 billion yuan, down 17.41% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 443 million yuan, down 24.98% year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 1.125 billion yuan, a decline of 3.44% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 139.48% year-on-year to 97 million yuan [3] Product and Sales Analysis - In Q2 2025, liquor revenue decreased by 4.52% year-on-year, with high-end liquor revenue down 15.65% and ordinary liquor revenue up 62.25%, driven by strong sales of the main product T68 [4] - The company had 2,585 distributors at the end of Q2 2025, indicating a gradual stabilization in the distribution system [4] Regional Performance - In Q2 2025, revenue from within the province decreased by 21.20% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province increased by 4.84% [5] Cost Control and Profitability - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 60.60%, a slight decrease of 0.33 percentage points year-on-year, with the overall gross margin for H1 2025 down 3.73 percentage points [6] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 improved to 8.56%, an increase of 4.92 percentage points year-on-year, although it remains low compared to peers in the liquor industry [7] Investment Recommendations - The company's revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with expected revenues of 4.898 billion yuan, 5.315 billion yuan, and 5.670 billion yuan respectively [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the same period have been adjusted to 1.87 yuan, 2.12 yuan, and 2.30 yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The report indicates a significant increase in the average daily trading volume of A-shares, which reached 25,875 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.1% increase month-on-month and a 358.3% increase year-on-year [15][12] - The securities transaction stamp duty for the first seven months of 2025 reached 936 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 62.5%, which signals a recovery in investor confidence and increased market activity [13][3] - The margin trading balance in the A-share market has recently surpassed 21,000 billion yuan, reaching 21,467.96 billion yuan as of August 21, 2025, indicating a positive outlook among investors [13][17] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Bank Financial Weekly Insights - The non-bank financial Shenwan index increased by 2.69%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.49 percentage points, ranking 18th among all primary industries [12] - The securities sector rose by 3.12%, while the insurance sector increased by 1.36% [12] 2. Securities: Positive Signals from Stamp Duty Growth - The substantial growth in securities transaction stamp duty reflects a more active capital market and rising investor confidence [13][3] - The margin trading balance has reached a new high not seen since June 2015, with a notable increase of 396.67 billion yuan in a single day [13][3] 3. Insurance: Long-term Bond Rate Increase - As of the end of Q2 2025, the insurance industry's investment balance was 36.2 trillion yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 8.9% [14] - The rise in long-term bond yields is expected to encourage insurance companies to increase their allocation to long-term bonds, potentially alleviating pressure on interest margins [14] 4. Market Indicators - The average daily trading volume for 2025 so far is 14,977 billion yuan, a 72.3% increase compared to 2024 [15] - The IPO market has seen 66 new listings in 2025, raising a total of 652.7 billion yuan [15] 5. Margin Trading - The margin trading balance as of August 21, 2025, was 21,467.71 billion yuan, a 4.46% increase from the previous month and a 36.99% increase compared to the average level in 2024 [17]

Market Overview - Since mid-July, the bond market has faced significant pressure due to a sharp rise in long-term yields, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields increasing by 12bp and 25bp respectively from July 15 to August 22[22]. - The traditional pricing framework for bonds has failed, as all three factors—funding, fundamentals, and policy—support a decline in interest rates, yet the market is driven by a single variable: risk appetite[22]. Stock Market Dynamics - The stock market has maintained a strong upward trend, with the rolling 3M Calmar ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Shares Index remaining above 4.0 since July, a level not seen during the previous "924" rally[23]. - Two potential scenarios for the stock market are identified: a rapid rise supported by capital inflows or a period of volatility as investors take profits ahead of the September 3 military parade[26]. Institutional Behavior and Bond Market Outlook - Institutional behavior indicates that bond yields may have reached a preliminary value proposition, with net selling by funds decreasing from CNY 3.587 billion in late July to CNY 2.028 billion in mid-August[29]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts is bolstered by dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Powell, which has alleviated concerns about a rate hike in September[32]. Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained a supportive stance, with timely reverse repos and MLF net injections, suggesting that liquidity conditions are unlikely to reverse sharply in the short term[33]. - The bond market is expected to stabilize as liquidity improves, with September likely seeing a return to lower funding rates[33]. Investment Strategy - A "barbell" strategy is recommended for bond investments, focusing on long-term government bonds and those with a duration of 3.0-3.5 years to balance risk and return[34]. - Institutions have adjusted their duration, with the average duration of bond funds decreasing to 4.47 years as of August 22, down 0.28 years from early August[34].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate production due to breakthroughs in AI technology and domestic companies' advancements, with significant market potential for domestic manufacturers [1][12] - The solid-state battery technology is identified as the next definitive direction for battery technology, with ongoing capacity expansion and product releases expected to enhance performance and safety [2][15] - The photovoltaic industry is anticipated to experience a recovery phase driven by rising prices of key materials and improved supply-side conditions, following a recent meeting aimed at regulating competition [3][24] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - Xiaopeng's humanoid robot development has made significant progress, preparing for mass production by 2026, driven by domestic demand for cost reduction and local component sourcing [1][12] - The entry of major tech companies into the humanoid robot market is expected to accelerate industrialization, with a focus on key components and supply chain collaboration among domestic manufacturers [12][13] - Key areas of innovation include dexterous hands and lightweight materials, which are crucial for enhancing robot efficiency and performance [13][14] New Energy Vehicles - TaiLan New Energy's solid-state battery production facility in Hubei marks a significant step in the commercialization of solid-state batteries, which are expected to drive demand in the high-end market [2][15] - The new energy vehicle sector is experiencing rapid growth, with advancements in battery technology and new model launches enhancing performance and cost-effectiveness [16][17] - The industry is poised for a rebound as the lithium battery supply chain expands, with a focus on new technologies and applications in various sectors [19][23] New Energy - The recent meeting by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to regulate the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the need to curb low-price competition and promote sustainable development [3][24] - The introduction of market-based pricing mechanisms for renewable energy is expected to enhance the quality of development in the sector, with several provinces implementing new guidelines [25][29] - The photovoltaic sector is projected to benefit from structural opportunities in key materials and components, particularly as new technologies are adopted [30][31] Power Equipment & AIDC - The development of new AI models is expected to drive demand for computing power and related power equipment, presenting growth opportunities for companies actively investing in AIDC [7]

- The report uses the Mahalanobis distance of recent weekly price and trading volume changes to measure industry crowding[3][17] - Last week, the home appliances and non-ferrous metals industries experienced significant short-term crowding[4][17] - The first quadrant represents industries with rising prices and volumes, while the third quadrant represents industries with falling prices and volumes. Points outside the ellipse indicate industries with price and volume deviations exceeding the 99% confidence level, signifying short-term significant crowding[17]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector is experiencing a favorable investment moment due to the "anti-involution" trend and the arrival of peak season, leading to accelerated self-discipline in the cement industry. Recommended stocks include Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, among others [1][5] - The cement market price is stabilizing at 364.15 CNY/ton, with an average shipment rate of 45.7% in key regions. The price is expected to maintain a steady upward trend [2][22] - The photovoltaic glass industry is witnessing price increases at the bottom level, with mainstream order prices for 2.0mm coated panels rising to approximately 11 CNY/sqm, reflecting a 2.33% increase [2][75] - The real estate market shows signs of marginal improvement, with new home transaction areas in 30 major cities reaching 154.48 million sqm, a 24.22% increase from the previous week [3][18] Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The national cement market price is 364.15 CNY/ton, showing stability amid tight funding and adverse weather conditions affecting demand recovery. The average shipment rate in key regions is around 45.7% [2][22] - Regions like Jiangsu and Anhui are seeing price increases of 20-30 CNY/ton, while areas like Fujian are experiencing price declines of 10-50 CNY/ton due to weak demand [22][48] Photovoltaic Glass - The market for photovoltaic glass is showing positive trading activity, with prices for 2.0mm coated panels increasing by 2.33% to around 11 CNY/sqm. The inventory levels are decreasing, indicating a tightening supply [75][76] Real Estate Market - The transaction volume for new homes in 30 major cities has improved, with a total area of 154.48 million sqm sold, reflecting a 24.22% week-on-week increase. The second-hand housing market also shows a 9% increase in transaction volume [3][18] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and others in the cement sector, as well as companies like Dongfang Yuhong and Keshun Co., which are benefiting from price increases in waterproofing products [1][5] - In the photovoltaic glass sector, stocks such as Qibin Group and Fuyao Glass are highlighted for their potential gains from price increases [1][5]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, lithium sales volume increased by 2% year-on-year to 53,100 tons, while the average price decreased by 34% year-on-year to $8,384 per ton [1] - The company expects significant increases in lithium sales volume in the second half of 2025, with an updated annual sales guidance of approximately 20,000 tons LCE [11][12] Summary by Sections Lithium Business - Q2 2025 lithium sales volume was 53,100 tons, a 2% increase year-on-year but a 3% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1] - Average realized price for lithium was $8,384 per ton, down 34% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Unit sales cost for lithium was $7,112 per ton, down 24% year-on-year and nearly flat quarter-on-quarter [1] - Unit gross profit for lithium was $1,272 per ton, down 62% year-on-year and 38% quarter-on-quarter [1] Specialty Plant Nutrition (SNP) - Q2 2025 SNP sales volume was 264,800 tons, a 1% decrease year-on-year and a 22% increase quarter-on-quarter [2] - Average realized price for SNP was $983 per ton, up 1% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2] - Unit sales cost for SNP was $856 per ton, up 7% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Unit gross profit for SNP was $127 per ton, down 28% year-on-year and 26% quarter-on-quarter [2] Iodine and Derivatives - Q2 2025 iodine and derivatives sales volume was 3,800 tons, a 7% decrease year-on-year and a 6% increase quarter-on-quarter [3] - Average realized price for iodine was $71,395 per ton, up 9% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter [3] - Unit sales cost for iodine was $33,724 per ton, up 11% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter [3] - Unit gross profit for iodine was $37,671 per ton, up 7% year-on-year but down 3% quarter-on-quarter [3] Potash - Q2 2025 potash sales volume was 85,300 tons, a 55% decrease year-on-year and a 15% decrease quarter-on-quarter [4] - Average realized price for potash was $474 per ton, up 23% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter [4] - Unit sales cost for potash was $433 per ton, up 25% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter [4] - Unit gross profit for potash was $41 per ton, up 1% year-on-year but down 15% quarter-on-quarter [4] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, total revenue was $1.0427 billion, a 19% decrease year-on-year but a 1% increase quarter-on-quarter [6] - Sales cost was $789.1 million, down 13% year-on-year and up 8% quarter-on-quarter [6] - Gross profit was $253.6 million, down 34% year-on-year and 17% quarter-on-quarter [6] - Pre-tax profit was $147 million, down 49% year-on-year and 31% quarter-on-quarter [6][7] - Net income after tax was $88.4 million, down 59% year-on-year and 36% quarter-on-quarter [7]

Investment Rating - The report provides a recommendation for the industry [7]. Core Insights - In Q2 2025, Renison's tin concentrate production reached 2,724 tons, a 12% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 9% increase year-on-year [1]. - The estimated revenue for Renison in Q2 2025 is AUD 136 million, reflecting an 11% increase both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year [5]. - The estimated EBITDA for Q2 2025 is AUD 67.05 million, a 19% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 16% increase year-on-year [6]. - The estimated net cash inflow for Q2 2025 is AUD 44.20 million, a 25% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 15% increase year-on-year [6]. Production and Sales - The total production of tin concentrate in Q2 2025 was 2,724 tons, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12% and a year-on-year increase of 9% [1]. - The shipment volume of tin concentrate in Q2 2025 was 2,202 tons, a 32% decrease quarter-on-quarter, while year-on-year it remained flat [2]. Pricing and Costs - The estimated selling price for tin in Q2 2025 is AUD 50,088 per ton, a 1% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 2% increase year-on-year [3]. - The estimated unit sales and marketing cost for tin in Q2 2025 is AUD 6,702 per ton, a 3% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 5% decrease year-on-year [4]. - The estimated C1 cash production cost for Q2 2025 is AUD 18,769 per ton, a 9% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 1% decrease year-on-year [4]. - The estimated All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) for Q2 2025 is AUD 30,733 per ton, an 8% decrease quarter-on-quarter and an 8% decrease year-on-year [4]. Financial Performance - The total capital expenditure for Q2 2025 was AUD 20.97 million, slightly up from AUD 20.73 million in Q1 2025 [8]. - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to AUD 230.48 million by the end of Q2 2025, down from AUD 249.48 million in Q1 2025 [9]. - Metals X continues to evaluate potential acquisition opportunities, focusing on tin mines and similar base metals and gold investment opportunities [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Buy" [1] Core Views - TCL Electronics reported a significant increase in adjusted net profit for H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 62% [2] - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 54.78 billion, reflecting a 20.4% increase year-on-year [2] - The adjusted net profit reached HKD 10.6 billion, marking a 62% increase compared to the previous year [2] Business Performance Summary - **Display Business**: Revenue from the large-size display segment was HKD 33.41 billion, up 10.9% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.6% [3] - Large-size display revenue was HKD 28.35 billion, a 9.4% increase, with a gross margin of 15.9% [3] - Mini LED TV shipments increased by 176.1% year-on-year [3] - In the Chinese market, TCL TV shipments rose by 3.5%, with a revenue increase of 4.4% to HKD 8.72 billion [3] - Internationally, TCL TV shipments grew by 8.7%, with revenue up 11.8% to HKD 19.632 billion [3] - **Internet Business**: Revenue reached HKD 1.46 billion, a 20.3% increase, with overseas revenue growing by 46.3% [3] - The gross margin for the internet business improved to 54.4% [3] - **Innovative Business**: Revenue from innovative segments was HKD 19.88 billion, a 42.4% increase, with solar business revenue soaring by 111.3% to HKD 11.14 billion [4] - Smart home and connectivity business revenue reached HKD 0.9 billion, with a gross margin of 23.6% [4] Profitability and Cost Control - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 15.3%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company maintained good control over expenses, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 7.3%, 4.2%, and 2.1% respectively [5] - The net profit margin improved to 2.0%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [5] Brand and R&D Strategy - TCL is enhancing its global brand presence and increasing R&D investments to drive technological innovation and improve core brand competitiveness [6] - The company is focusing on high-end market strategies and leveraging new media marketing to boost brand visibility [6] Financial Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to HKD 117.14 billion, HKD 132.94 billion, and HKD 149.22 billion respectively [8] - The expected net profit for the same period is projected at HKD 2.35 billion, HKD 2.82 billion, and HKD 3.23 billion respectively [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be HKD 0.93, HKD 1.12, and HKD 1.28 for 2025-2027 [8]