证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 席勒市盈率超过 40，港股内部分化加大 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:由于特朗普贸易立场的暂时缓和，本周 美股市场延续反弹。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率上升至 38；费城半导体指数市盈率仍然有 46.3；纳斯达克指数的市盈 率仍有 42.6，美股科技股估值仍然处于偏高位水平。由于美股 科技股估值压力尚在，叠加贸易问题中期维度可能存在反复， 美股科技指数中期仍然容易出现调整。目前标普 500 席勒市盈 率上升至 40.58，已经处于 40 以上的高位区间，为互联网泡沫 之后的第一回处于 40 以上的区间。由于美国经济基本面存在一 些压力，叠加贸易政策的不确定性，且美股估值处于较高区 间，美股中金融、通讯服务、消费、工业等行业中期维度仍然 存在调整的压力。美股中不同的成长和价值行业中仍然轮番会 有重要个股出现单日明显回调。由于之前欧洲多个市场连续回 调两周，本周欧洲市场出现反弹。由于欧洲本身经济偏疲软， 叠加欧洲 多个重 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company continues to demonstrate strong revenue growth, with a 68.63% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 183.90 billion [3]. - The net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 84.31% year-on-year, amounting to 17.87 billion [4]. - The company is expected to maintain robust growth in the electric two-wheeler segment, despite concerns regarding new national standards [5]. - The company has a strong market presence with over 9,700 stores and is well-positioned for future growth in various segments, including all-terrain vehicles and robotic lawn mowers [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was 66.48 billion, up 56.82% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [3]. - The company achieved a net profit of 5.46 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a 45.86% increase year-on-year [4]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 28.99%, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.52 percentage points [4]. Business Segments - Electric two-wheelers generated revenue of 44.54 billion in the first three quarters, with a 72% year-on-year increase in sales volume [3]. - All-terrain vehicles and robotic lawn mowers are expected to see significant growth, with the all-terrain vehicle market being valued at over 1 trillion globally [5]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 206.36 billion, 262.77 billion, and 332.02 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 45.4%, 27.3%, and 26.4% respectively [6]. - The projected net profit for the same period is 20.23 billion, 25.79 billion, and 32.36 billion, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 86.6%, 27.4%, and 25.5% [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.051 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 250 million yuan, up 54.68% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 474 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 47.57% [2] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 40.92%, an increase of 2.57 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin at 46.93%, up 2.32 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company’s Q1-Q3 2025 revenue was 1.051 billion yuan, with a net profit of 250 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 243 million yuan, reflecting strong growth rates of 33.65% and 54.68% respectively [1] Quarterly Performance - In Q3 2025, the company’s revenue reached 474 million yuan, marking a 16.15% increase year-on-year and a significant 47.57% increase quarter-on-quarter [2] Gross Margin and Cost Control - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 40.92%, with Q3 gross margin at 46.93%, indicating effective cost control and operational efficiency [3] Product Growth Drivers - The optical prism segment is identified as a core growth driver, with the company being a key supplier of micro prisms for Apple's new telephoto camera systems, expected to see increased demand as technology matures [4] - The glass aspheric lens segment is experiencing strong demand across various applications, with the company expanding its production capacity to meet this demand [5] - The glass wafer segment is positioned to benefit from the growing AR glasses market, with the company recognized for its advanced production capabilities [9] Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 1.455 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 40.7%, and net profit expected to be 337 million yuan, reflecting a 52.6% increase [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][7] Core Insights - The company has shown a significant recovery in Q3 performance, attributed to internal reforms and improved industry price competition. The profit performance is bolstered by product structure upgrades and enhanced cost control [2][4] - The company maintains its leading position in the smart drying rack market, leveraging a comprehensive sales model that integrates online and offline channels, and focusing on smart home product promotion [3][5] - Despite a decline in overall gross margin for the first three quarters, Q3 saw an increase in gross margin and net margin, indicating improved efficiency and rational competition in the industry [4][6] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 1.059 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.91%, and a net profit of 143 million yuan, down 24.79% year-on-year. However, Q3 alone showed a revenue of 382 million yuan, up 7.27% year-on-year, and a net profit of 57 million yuan, up 21.67% year-on-year [2][9] - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is 1.599 billion, 1.774 billion, and 1.970 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.56, 0.63, and 0.71 yuan [6][9] - The company’s gross margin is expected to decline slightly from 48.0% in 2024 to 46.7% in 2027, while net profit margin is projected to improve gradually [9][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 339 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 67.42%, and achieved a net profit of 21 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - The gross margin improved significantly, with a gross margin of 36.03% for the first three quarters of 2025, up 8.63 percentage points year-on-year, and a gross margin of 40.75% in Q3 2025, up 11.76 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company is a leader in the domestic optical chip market, focusing on high-power semiconductor laser chips and has made significant technological advancements [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 125 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.30%, and a net profit of 12 million yuan, indicating a successful turnaround [2] - The company’s operating income for 2025-2027 is projected to be 440 million, 567 million, and 707 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 61.6%, 28.8%, and 24.6% [9] Gross Margin and Cost Control - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 36.03%, with a notable increase in Q3 to 40.75%, reflecting improved cost control measures [3] - The company has effectively reduced its expense ratio, with a total expense ratio of 31.92% for Q1-Q3 2025, down 29.82 percentage points year-on-year [3] Technological Advancements - The company has achieved breakthroughs in high-power semiconductor laser chips, including a new record for continuous power output exceeding 132W for a single chip [4] - The company has also made significant progress in VCSEL technology, achieving a chip efficiency of 74% and setting a new world record for single-mode VCSEL power efficiency [5][8] Market Position and Product Development - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix in optical communication, with mass production of 100G EML chips and ongoing sampling of 200G EML chips [8] - The company is expanding its applications in various fields, including laser weeding and acne treatment, with new products being developed and samples sent out [4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "technological self-reliance" as a key development goal for the next five years, aligning with the current themes of development and security [2] - The economic focus is on the real economy, aiming to build a "modern industrial system led by advanced manufacturing" [3] - The report highlights the significance of domestic demand, stating the need to "build a strong domestic market" and enhance the internal circulation of the economy [4] Summary by Sections Strategic Goals - The 14th Five-Year Plan is seen as a critical period for achieving the 2035 goals, with a proactive policy stance to address complex development environments [2] - The report indicates that the economic growth target for the 14th Five-Year Plan will not be explicitly quantified but suggests a growth rate of no less than 4.5%-5% [2] Industrial Development - The construction of a modern industrial system is prioritized, with a focus on maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing and emphasizing advanced manufacturing [3] - Key areas for technological innovation include breakthroughs in original innovation and core technologies, particularly in emerging industries such as new energy and aerospace [3] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The report stresses the importance of enhancing domestic demand and balancing consumption and investment, indicating a shift towards policies favoring consumer and livelihood improvements [4] Capital Market Outlook - The report predicts a continuation of a slow bull market in A-shares, driven by policy shifts and technological catalysts, with a focus on "big technology" as a long-term investment theme [7] - Key sectors to watch include AI, robotics, high-end equipment manufacturing, and opportunities for Chinese industries to expand internationally [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 21.093 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.78%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.907 billion yuan, up 22.78% year-on-year [2] - The new national standards implemented from September 1, 2025, are expected to drive industry upgrades and enhance product competitiveness, leading to a positive outlook for the company's market share [3] - The company's gross margin improved to 18.00%, an increase of 1.21 percentage points, attributed to the optimization of product structure during peak season [4] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 25.7 billion, 30.31 billion, and 35.213 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.462 billion, 2.926 billion, and 3.445 billion yuan [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.062 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.30%, and a net profit of 695 million yuan, up 15.24% year-on-year [2] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.569 billion yuan, showing significant improvement [2] Industry Analysis - The transition to new national standards is expected to standardize the industry, enhancing quality and safety, which will benefit leading companies [3] - The sales dynamics are anticipated to slow down as the market clears out old standard vehicles, but the overall outlook remains positive due to the new regulations [3] Profitability Metrics - The company maintained a relatively stable net profit margin of 8.81%, despite a slight decrease of 0.09 percentage points [4] - The company focuses on core technology research and development, particularly in electric motors and control systems, which supports its competitive edge [4] Future Projections - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.83, 3.37, and 3.96 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12, 10, and 8 times [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company has successfully obtained approval for its self-developed "Recombinant Type I α1 Collagen Freeze-Dried Fiber," marking it as the first of its kind in China, with various specifications suitable for facial dermal tissue filling [2] - The recombinant collagen market in China is projected to reach 54.7 billion yuan by 2025, with the medical aesthetics market expected to grow to 7 billion yuan, indicating significant growth potential for the company [3] - The company is positioned as the second domestic enterprise to receive approval for recombinant collagen, allowing it to benefit from industry expansion [3] - The skincare segment is currently facing short-term sales fluctuations but is expected to stabilize and recover through optimized channel structures and strong brand recognition [4] Summary by Sections Medical Aesthetics - The company's recombinant collagen product showcases technical advantages and strengthens its leading position in the market, with a focus on improving skin structure and reducing dynamic wrinkles [3] - The product's unique formulation and research barriers enhance its market competitiveness [3] Skincare Products - Short-term sales have been impacted by a reduction in collaboration with influencers, but the brand's strength and product recognition remain robust [4] - The company aims to recover sales through channel optimization and continued consumer confidence driven by scientific marketing [4] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 6.917 billion, 8.540 billion, and 10.419 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 2.452 billion, 2.988 billion, and 3.603 billion yuan [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are expected to be 2.29, 2.79, and 3.36 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 14, and 11 times [5][8]

Group 1: Economic Strategy and Goals - The emphasis on "historical initiative spirit" reflects a proactive approach to challenges, shifting from "responding to challenges" to "fighting risks and facing challenges" in the 15th Five-Year Plan[1] - The reaffirmation of "economic construction as the center" highlights its critical role in the upcoming five years, maintaining a focus on high-quality development[2] - The goal for 2035 includes achieving a per capita GDP of at least $20,000, implying a need for approximately 4.4% average annual growth over the next decade[3] Group 2: Industrial and Technological Development - The focus on the real economy and maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing is crucial for building a modern industrial system[4] - The plan includes a shift towards advanced manufacturing, with new priorities such as aerospace and transportation, while emphasizing intelligent, green, and integrated development[4] - The call to "seize the high ground in technological development" indicates an increasing commitment to original innovation and key core technology breakthroughs[4] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Consumption - The strategy emphasizes expanding domestic demand, with a primary focus on boosting consumption and effective investment, aligning with previous plans[6] - The meeting indirectly addresses the issue of "involution" by highlighting the need to eliminate barriers to a unified national market[7] Group 4: Financial and Social Considerations - The meeting briefly mentioned real estate, focusing on promoting high-quality development in the sector, with further details expected in the full 15th Five-Year Plan[7] - There is a shift towards improving the income distribution system, indicating a focus on protecting legitimate income and regulating excessive income[7]

Core Insights - The market is currently in a low volatility state, with both equity and bond markets showing signs of low trading volume and oscillation around key index levels [1][2] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to influence market trends, with historical data suggesting potential positive movements in the A-share market following similar announcements in the past [2][3] - The recent Politburo meeting emphasized stabilizing the market, which may reinforce market expectations and provide a foundation for future growth in technology sectors [3][5] Equity Market Summary - The A-share market saw a slight increase of 0.14% with a trading volume of 1.66 trillion yuan, marking a decrease of 295 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.72% and 0.48%, respectively, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to 5.345 billion HKD [1][3] - The current trading volume is at its lowest since August 6, indicating a lack of strong directional signals from market participants [1][2] Bond Market Summary - The bond market exhibited mixed performance, with long-term bond yields experiencing slight increases despite initial declines due to market sentiment [4][5] - The preference for credit products over interest rate bonds is evident, with significant net purchases of credit bonds compared to interest rate bonds in October [4] - The market is closely monitoring the impact of the "15th Five-Year Plan" on bond pricing and investor sentiment [5] Commodity Market Summary - The commodity market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in precious metals, which have stabilized after previous sell-offs [6][7] - Industrial commodities, particularly those related to the "anti-involution" theme, are experiencing strong performance, driven by policy expectations and improving fundamentals [6][8] - Significant capital inflows into industrial products were noted, with a net inflow of over 6.7 billion yuan into commodity indices, while precious metals saw a net outflow of 3.4 billion yuan [6][8] Technology Sector Insights - The recent Politburo meeting highlighted the importance of seizing opportunities in the new technological revolution, which may lead to targeted investments in key sectors such as artificial intelligence and quantum information [3][5] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to clarify future technological directions, potentially benefiting sectors aligned with government priorities [3][5]