[Table_Summary] ·市场回顾： 证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 07 日 [Table_Title] "跨年行情"是否会提前启动？盘整、蓄势与逢低布局 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 本周全球股指多数上涨，其中韩国综指、中国台湾加权指数和 A 股深证成指领涨，巴西股指受到政治局势变化影 响于周五出现大跌。A 股延续缩量上涨，其中创业板、北证 50 和沪深 300 指数领涨；微盘股指、红利指数下跌； 板块方面，受益于事件催化的商业航天、有色金属、半导体、保险等轮番走强。大宗商品方面，铜和白银再创历 史新高，本周 LME 铜、COMEX 白银分别上涨 4.3%和 2.9%。外汇方面，本周美元指数继续下行，人民币汇率偏强 运行，在岸和离岸人民币对美元汇率逼近 7.0 关口。 ·市场展望：跨年行情有望徐徐展开。岁末年初，A 股多路增量资金入市可以期待：一方面，海外美联储降息概率 较大，人民币汇率偏强运行有利于外资增配中国资产；另一方面，监管层下调保险资金股票投资风险因子和年初 保险资金"开门红"预期下，保险资金入市的动能较强。近期 A 股成交持续 ...

朱雀飞天，算力升空 [Table_Title2] 计算机行业周报 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: ► 一、朱雀三号首飞：入轨成功，回收失败 朱雀三号的首飞远超简单成败界定。此次飞行获取的 海量真实飞行数据，为后续攻克回收难关、实现低成 本太空运输目标提供了至关重要的依据。随着朱雀三 号后续型号快速迭代，中国商业航天有望迎来成本大 幅降低、发射频次持续提升的新阶段。 ► 二、太空算力，重塑未来数字基石 太空算力正成为重塑未来数字基石的战略焦点。北京 市规划于晨昏轨道部署千兆瓦级太空数据中心，分三 阶段实现从"天数天算"到"天基主算"的跨越，以 突破地面算力的能源、散热与资源瓶颈。中国已通过 "三体计算星座"和"一星多卡"架构等技术率先推 进工程实践。与此同时，SpaceX 凭借星链巨型星座与 可复用火箭体系，构建起全球覆盖的低延迟天基网 络，其估值飙升至近 8000 亿美元，凸显市场对太空 算力基础设施的战略看好。全球竞赛已启，谁主导轨 道资源与天基算力架构，谁将掌控下一代数字生态的 制高点。 ► 三、投资建议 受益标的: 火箭：航天动力、斯瑞新材、超捷股份、高华科技、 西部材料、航天机电、航天宏图 ...

[Table_Title] 等待破局 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ►回顾：交易清淡，暖风渐起 12 月 1-5日，类权益市场继续震荡。截至 2025 年12 月5日， 万得全 A 收盘价为 6250.64，较 11 月 28 日上涨 0.72%；中证 转债同期上涨 0.08%，估值有所回落。 证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 7 日 科技叙事接连涌现，但市场积极性不高。在谷歌产业链叙事 演绎后，市场将眼光放到了端侧 AI，以及相对更遥远的太空 算力。不过，相关行情持续性不强，例如 12 月 1 日 AI手机推 出后，相关品种大多在次日显著回落。同时，成交额窄幅波 动，体现出资金的观望态度。时至周五，市场迎来积极信 号，包括摩尔线程上市和保险公司调降部分股票业务风险因 子，情绪出现回暖的迹象。 ►策略：保持轮动思维，等待破局点 指数或仍将震荡，不过中枢有望上升。我们将本轮修复分为 两个阶段，第一阶段为对 11 月 21 日大跌的修复，第二阶段为 面向 10 月 9 日高点的修复。当前指数基本完成第一阶段的修 复，但在区间上 ...

传媒行业周报系列 [Table_Title2]2025 年第 48 周 证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Title] [Table_Title] 奈飞与华纳达成收购协议，DeepSeek-V3.2 正式发 布 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 7 日 月 7 日 ► 市场行情回顾 [Table_Summary] 2025 年第 48 周（实际交易日为 2025.12.1-2025.12.5）上证 指数上涨 0.37%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.28%，创业板指数上涨 1.86%。恒生指数上涨 0.95%，恒生互联网指数上涨 0.87%，行 业落后恒生指数 0.07pct。SW 传媒指数下跌 3.86%，落后创业 板指数 5.72pct，在申万一级 31 个行业涨跌幅排名中位列第 31 位。子行业中影视、游戏和广电位列前三位，分别为上涨 1.32%、下跌 1.08%和下跌 1.84%。 ► 核心观点&投资建议 奈飞以 827 亿美元收购华纳兄弟核心资产，流媒体行业格局 重塑。本周，据新华社报道，奈飞公司与华纳兄弟探索公司 达成协议，将以总价 827 亿美元收购后者包括华纳兄弟电影 集 ...

证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 6 日 [Table_Title] 资金面或继续平稳 [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：月初首周，资金面平稳 12 月首周（1-5 日），月初央行惯例大额回笼跨月投放资金，全周净回笼 2.5万 亿元（含1万亿元买断式逆回购），不过资金价格持续处于舒适区，仅在周五小幅抬 升。周一至周四隔夜利率 R001 由跨月当日的 1.43%连续降至 1.36%之后，便维持 在这一水平附近；7 天资金利率走势与之相似，R007 基本持稳于 1.49%，单日波动 在 1bp 以内。直至周五，随着前期连续净回笼所带来的资金缺口压力不断积聚，资 金面略有收紧，R001 和 R007 均小幅上行 1.1bp，分别收于 1.37%和 1.50%。 ►展望：资金面或继续保持平稳 展望下周（12 月 8-12 日），预计资金面继续保持平稳，隔夜利率 R001 大概率 稳步在 1.36%附近，不过下周四（11 日）起拆借 7 天资金可完整跨税期（15-17 日），7 天资金利率可能出现小幅波动。 具体到影响因素，公开 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The new - home market shows signs of marginal repair with four consecutive weeks of环比 growth, but the year - on - year readings are under pressure due to high - base effects. The second - hand housing market has certain resilience, though it also experiences fluctuations [1][2]. - There are significant structural differences in the real - estate market across different city tiers. First - tier cities have a mixed performance in new - and second - hand housing, while second - and third - tier cities also show different trends in new - and second - hand housing transactions [3][6]. - The second - hand housing listing prices show a differentiated trend among different city tiers, with first - tier cities stabilizing, and second - and third - tier cities continuing to decline [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Data - **New Homes**: In the week from November 28 to December 4, the transaction area of new homes in 38 cities reached 2.92 million square meters, a 5%环比 increase, and the absolute scale is higher than the past four weeks, indicating a gradual recovery [1]. - **Second - hand Homes**: The transaction area of second - hand homes in 15 cities was 2.14 million square meters, a 3%环比 decline after two weeks of high - level consolidation. However, the trading volume in the past four weeks remained relatively stable [1]. - **Year - on - year**: Affected by high - base effects, both new - and second - hand home transactions declined year - on - year, with the decline in second - hand homes expanding significantly [1]. 3.2 Monthly Data - **New Homes**: In November, the transaction area of new homes in 38 cities decreased by 35% year - on - year, a further decline from the 27% drop in October, mainly due to the high - base effect of the same period last year [2]. - **Second - hand Homes**: In November, the transaction area of second - hand homes in 15 cities decreased by 20% year - on - year, the same as in October, showing stronger resilience compared to the new - home market [2]. 3.3 First - tier City Performance - **New Homes**: The new - home market in first - tier cities continued to recover, with a 7%环比 increase in weekly transactions, but the growth rate narrowed. There was significant differentiation among cities, with Beijing showing a large increase due to a low - base effect, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen declined [3]. - **Second - hand Homes**: The second - hand housing market cooled down, with a 4%环比 decline in the combined transactions of Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. All three cities experienced declines [3]. - **Year - on - year**: Both new - and second - hand home transactions in first - tier cities declined year - on - year, with the decline in second - hand homes expanding significantly. Shenzhen was particularly affected by the high - base effect [4]. 3.4 Second - and Third - tier City Performance - **Second - tier Cities**: New - home transactions increased slightly by 6%环比, but the recovery momentum was weak. Second - hand home transactions decreased by 7%环比 [6]. - **Third - tier Cities**: New - home transactions increased for three consecutive weeks, with a 3%环比 increase this week. Second - hand home transactions increased by 11%环比, approaching the annual high [6]. - **Year - on - year**: In second - tier cities, the decline in both new - and second - hand home transactions expanded. In third - tier cities, the decline in new - home transactions narrowed marginally [6]. 3.5 Housing Price Observation - **Overall**: From November 24 to December 1, the listing prices of second - hand homes in first - tier cities stabilized, while those in second - and third - tier cities continued to decline [7]. - **First - tier Cities**: Shenzhen's listing price rebounded, while other first - tier cities declined. Guangzhou had the deepest year - on - year decline [7]. - **Second - tier Cities**: Xi'an and Wuhan had relatively strong环比 performance, but their long - term prices were still in a downward adjustment channel. Hangzhou was relatively resistant to decline [7].

Group 1: A-Share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) of the A-share market is 16.33, with a median value of 13.52 and a maximum of 30.60[9] - The PE (TTM) excluding financial and oil sectors is 25.66, indicating a higher valuation compared to the overall market[6] - The risk premium for the A-share market has fluctuated, with a current ERP (万得全A) of approximately 1.5%[16] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 12.02, with a median of 10.29 and a maximum of 22.67[56] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE of 23.65, reflecting a significant valuation compared to other sectors[61] - The median PE for the Hong Kong financial sector is 7.45, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical averages[66] Group 3: U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 index has a current PE (TTM) of 29.38, with a median of 21.14 and a maximum of 41.99[80] - The NASDAQ index shows a current PE of 42.14, indicating a high valuation compared to historical data[88] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a current PE of 30.58, with a median of 18.64[92] Group 4: Sector-Specific Valuation Insights - Non-bank financials, food and beverage, and non-ferrous metals sectors have low PE ratios, indicating potential undervaluation[23] - The technology sector, particularly computing and electronics, shows high PE ratios, suggesting overvaluation risks[37] - The consumer sector, including liquor and pharmaceuticals, has a median PE of 19.25 and 37.48 respectively, indicating strong market interest[30]

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 5 日 [Table_Title] 2026，2200+亿 C-REITs 怎么配？ [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之三 [Table_Summary] 截至 2025 年 11 月末，我国基础设施公募 REITs 已经发行 78只，共 发售基金 2095 亿元，资产类型涉及园区、消费、交通、能源、生态环 保、水利、仓储物流、租赁住房、市政设施和新型设施十大类，总市值约 2223 亿元，已突破 2200 亿元大关。 ►一级市场：继续常态化发行，新资产类型将逐步上线 2025 年，C-REITs 进入常态化申报、常态化发行的新阶段，相关部 门持续推动市场扩围扩容，拟推出商业综合体、商业零售、写字楼、酒店 等商业不动产 REITs。基础设施 REITs 项目行业范围清单（2025 年版） 也新增了商业办公设施、城市更新设施、体育场馆项目等，新资产类型 REITs 将陆续上市。 从发行节奏来看，2025 年 1-11 月共发行 20 只，规模 408 亿元，较 2024 年有所回落。从打新情绪来看，2025 年一级 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In 2026, the investment strategy for bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds should focus on trading, with limited value in credit quality downgrading. The demand side of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds may face pressure, mainly with structural impacts, while the net supply is likely to remain at a low level, and small and medium - sized banks may continue to increase issuance. The credit spread of medium - and long - term AAA - rated Tier 2 and perpetual bonds still has an upper limit and a lower limit, but trading difficulties have increased, and short - term downgrading of these bonds may not yield significant excess returns [2][7][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025, Bank Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds: Primary Market Contraction and Secondary Market Differentiation - **Net financing contraction**: In 2025, the net financing of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds decreased year - on - year. The total issuance was 1.58 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 432.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 86.4 billion yuan. The decrease was mainly due to the reduced supply from joint - stock and small and medium - sized banks [12]. - **Differentiated performance**: The yield of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds showed an "M" - shaped oscillatory trend in 2025. Short - term and low - grade bonds performed strongly, with significant narrowing of credit spreads, while long - term bonds underperformed [31]. 3.2 2025, Changes in Institutional Behavior - **More active trading**: In 2025, the trading of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds became more active. The average daily trading volume increased significantly compared to the previous year, and the proportion of trading volume in all credit bonds rose from 31% in 2024 to 39% [1]. - **Increased allocation by major non - bank institutions**: In 2025, funds, wealth management products, insurance, and other asset management products all net - bought other types of bonds (mainly bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds) in the secondary market. Among them, funds, wealth management products, and insurance increased their allocation efforts year - on - year [39]. 3.3 2026, Outlook on the Supply and Demand of Bank Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - **Demand side pressure with structural impacts**: Under the new regulations on fund sales fees, short - term and medium - short - term bond funds may face redemption pressure, leading to selling pressure on Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. Wealth management products are undergoing rectification of net - value smoothing methods, reducing their positions in these bonds. The full implementation of the new insurance I9 accounting standard in 2026 may suppress the demand for long - term bonds [2][3]. - **Low net supply, potential increase from small and medium - sized banks**: From 2024 - 2025, the net financing of state - owned banks' Tier 2 and perpetual bonds was significantly reduced and may remain low in the future. Although the capital adequacy ratios of joint - stock, city, and rural commercial banks are above the regulatory requirements, they have shown a downward trend this year. If interest rates remain low next year, small and medium - sized banks may increase issuance [63]. 3.4 2026, Focus on Trading, Limited Value in Downgrading - **Credit spread characteristics**: The credit spread of medium - and long - term AAA - rated Tier 2 and perpetual bonds still has an upper limit and a lower limit. In 2025, the credit spread of 3 - year bonds had a slightly lower central value and a compressed fluctuation range; the central values of 5 - year and 10 - year bonds increased, with the 5 - year bond's fluctuation range narrowing and the 10 - year bond's upper and lower limits rising [68][69][73]. - **Trading difficulties**: The yield of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds has been oscillating in a narrow range at a low level, and the "amplification of interest rate fluctuations" attribute has weakened year - on - year, increasing trading difficulties. In 2026, more precise timing is needed to enhance returns [81][84]. - **Low downgrading value**: The credit risk of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds is controllable, but the cost - effectiveness of short - term and low - grade bonds has decreased significantly. In the future, short - term downgrading may not yield significant excess returns [92][95].

证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 3 日 [Table_Title] Kinross 2025Q3 黄金产销量分别环比增加 1.5%/2.4%至 16.18/15.67 吨，归属于普通股股东的 净利润环比增长 10.2%至 5.849 亿美元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 生产经营情况 2025Q3 营业利润为 8.101 亿美元，同比增长 47.9%，环比增长 4.6%。 2025Q3 归属于普通股股东的净利润为 5.849 亿美元，同比增长 64.6%，环比增长 10.2%。 产量：2025Q3，Kinross 黄金产量为 52.03 万盎司（16.18 吨），同比减少 12.4%，环比增加 1.5%。同比减少主要源于 Tasiast 和 Fort Knox 矿区按计划降低产量。 销量：2025Q3，Kinross 黄金销量为 52.07 万盎司（15.67 吨），同比减少 10.0%，环比增加 2.4%。 平均实现价格：2025Q3 的平均实现金价为 3460 美元/盎司 (800.9 元 ...