Group 1 - The "takeaway war" has restarted, leading to a new peak in order volume, with Meituan reporting 150 million instant retail orders, and rider income increasing by 111% during weekends [1][9][11] - The competition among platforms like Meituan, JD, and Taobao has resulted in historical highs in order volumes, indicating a significant increase in consumer spending driven by subsidies [1][9][10] - The competition is seen as a catalyst for long-term benefits, provided that regulatory measures are in place to prevent malicious competition and ensure fair practices [1][13] Group 2 - The outbound tourism market is experiencing a strong recovery, with average prices for outbound travel products decreasing by approximately 5% compared to last year, and significant increases in bookings for overseas train tickets and hotel packages [2][15] - The inbound tourism sector is also seeing growth, with over 640,000 people entering through Beijing ports in the first ten days of July, marking a 22.1% year-on-year increase in foreign visitors [2][14] - Popular destinations for outbound travel include Europe, with a 76% increase in travelers to Europe, particularly to Northern Europe and the UK [2][17] Group 3 - The summer economy is thriving, with long-distance travel accounting for over 60% of tourism, and domestic flight bookings exceeding 25.61 million during the summer travel period [3][21] - The railway sector anticipates sending 953 million passengers during the summer, reflecting a 5.8% year-on-year increase, with additional tourist trains being introduced to meet demand [3][21] - The self-driving tourism in Xinjiang is booming, supported by improved transportation infrastructure, with over 30,000 vehicles using the newly opened Ahe Highway [4][19] Group 4 - The report highlights the emergence of new consumption patterns, particularly in the food and beverage sector, with a notable increase in night-time dining and the popularity of takeaway services [38][39] - The travel and hospitality sectors are adapting to changing consumer preferences, with platforms like Tujia launching long-term rental services to cater to the growing demand for travel stays [48][49] - The hotel industry is expanding, with new openings such as the Marriott Hotel in Changsha, which aims to enhance local tourism experiences [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since July, the allocation demand for credit bonds from funds, other product categories, and insurance has increased. Credit spreads have mostly narrowed or remained flat due to strong demand, with 1Y varieties showing strong resistance to decline and lower-rated bonds performing better than higher-rated ones [1][10][11]. - Currently, both credit bond coupons and credit spreads are at low levels, and the market trend is more dependent on institutional allocation demand. It is necessary to closely monitor institutional behavior, buying sentiment, and the potential compression space of credit spreads [1][12]. - Overall, the supply - demand pattern in July is favorable for credit bonds, and there is still a small amount of compression space for credit spreads. Specific strategies include focusing on short - to medium - duration bonds with credit rating sinking, and high - grade 10Y bonds have relatively large potential compression space for credit spreads [3][22]. - In the bank capital bond market, although the spread protection is thin, there is still compression space. Long - duration bonds of large banks and 2 - 3 year bonds of small and medium - sized banks are recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Credit Bond Market Overview - From July 1 - 11, funds' net purchase of credit bonds reached 88.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 39.1 billion yuan. Other product categories and insurance had net purchases of 31.3 billion and 15.2 billion yuan respectively, with year - on - year increases of 7.8 billion and 5 billion yuan [1][11]. - From July 7 - 11, with the convergence of funds and the rotation of negative factors, the bond market fluctuated upwards. Credit bonds, due to strong allocation demand, saw most credit spreads narrow or remain flat [10]. 3.2. Factors Affecting Credit Bond Market 3.2.1. Institutional Behavior - Fund net trading volume of credit bonds is a sensitive indicator related to credit spread trends. Maintaining a daily net purchase of over 500 million yuan helps keep credit spreads low. From July 7 - 10, the rolling 5 - day net purchase was 1 - 1.4 billion yuan, but it dropped to 740 million yuan on the 11th, and was below 500 million yuan on the 10th and 11th [2][12]. 3.2.2. Buying Sentiment - The TKN成交占比 is used to measure buying sentiment. A stable TKN成交占比 above 75% indicates good buying sentiment. From July 7 - 11, as yields rose, the TKN成交占比 declined, with three days below 70%, but the rolling 5 - day average was around 70% [2][16]. 3.2.3. Potential Compression Space of Credit Spreads - By observing the position of credit spreads relative to the mean - 2 times the standard deviation, it is found that currently, each variety still has a small amount of compression space, with 10Y varieties having relatively large potential [3][22]. 3.3. Specific Bond Types Analysis 3.3.1. Urban Investment Bonds - From July 1 - 13, urban investment bonds had a net financing of 28.8 billion yuan. The primary market issuance sentiment was good, with the proportion of full - subscription multiples over 3 times remaining at 61%. The issuance rate of long - term bonds decreased significantly, with the 10 - year average dropping to 2.14% [30][32]. - In the secondary market, short - term bonds were resistant to decline, while the yields of 3 - 10Y bonds increased. The trading activity decreased, and Shenzhen Metro had many high - valuation transactions [35][38]. 3.3.2. Industrial Bonds - From July 1 - 13, industrial bond issuance and net financing increased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment weakened slightly, and the proportion of long - term issuance over 5 years decreased significantly. The buying sentiment in the secondary market weakened, and the trading duration increased [40][42]. 3.3.3. Bank Capital Bonds - From July 7 - 13, several banks issued secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds. In the secondary market, yields generally rose, spreads showed differentiation, and low - grade, short - duration bonds performed better. Currently, credit spreads are at relatively low levels, but there is still compression space [45][46]. 3.3.4. TLAC Bonds - By comparing the yields of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y AAA - secondary capital bonds with TLAC bonds, the spreads are analyzed. As of July 11, 2025, the 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y spreads were 3.1bp, 3.8bp, and 1.4bp respectively, indicating that 10 - year TLAC bonds are more cost - effective [53]. 3.3.5. Commercial Financial Bonds - Since 2021, the valuation of 3Y AAA commercial financial bonds has generally followed the trend of interest - rate bonds, with a stable spread center. As of July 11, the credit spread was 14bp, at a relatively low level [57].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [6] Core Insights - The passing of the US "GENIUS Act" and Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" marks a significant milestone in the recognition of stablecoins, potentially transforming virtual assets into key components of financial infrastructure [2][19] - Stablecoins are expected to bridge the gap between digital finance and traditional finance, enhancing their acceptance by regulatory bodies due to their stable value and payment attributes [2][12] - The total market capitalization of stablecoins exceeded $269 billion as of July 12, 2025, with over 90% being USD-pegged stablecoins [17] Regulatory Framework - The US "GENIUS Act" requires stablecoin issuers to hold 1:1 cash or treasury reserves and grants the Federal Reserve emergency stop authority to prevent systemic risks [20] - Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" establishes a licensing system for stablecoin issuers, mandating sufficient reserves and compliance with anti-money laundering regulations [22][23] - The European Union's MiCA regulation, effective from December 30, 2024, also aims to regulate stablecoins, focusing on consumer protection and market integrity [19][21] Stablecoin Characteristics - Stablecoins are pegged to fiat currencies, balancing openness and stability, unlike Bitcoin which is highly volatile [3][12] - They are designed to function as a payment tool, with lower transaction costs and faster settlement times compared to traditional payment systems [17][23] - The stablecoin ecosystem includes issuers, exchanges, and application scenarios, supported by reserve banks and compliance service providers [25][26] Market Opportunities - The implementation of the "Stablecoin Ordinance" is expected to boost the development of stablecoin issuance, trading, and cross-border payments in Hong Kong, positioning it as a global virtual asset hub [8][23] - Companies like ZA Bank are poised to benefit from the stablecoin ecosystem by providing reserve banking services [26][28] - The regulatory environment in Hong Kong is conducive for local securities firms to expand their services into the virtual asset space, creating new growth opportunities [31][32]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant surge in overseas AI inference demand, which is expected to drive a positive feedback loop in model iteration, leading to a potential systematic profit upgrade due to market size and capacity reassessment [1][5][6] - The report indicates that the AI inference demand is in its early growth phase, with a notable increase in token volume, which will sustain high capital expenditure (Capex) in AI applications [1][6] - The report emphasizes that the optical module industry, as a foundational component for computing clusters, still possesses high growth potential in the medium to long term [1][6] Group 2 - The report recommends several beneficiaries within the computing power supply chain, including high-speed optical modules and liquid cooling technologies, with specific companies such as NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication identified as key players [2][7] - It also lists additional beneficiaries in the computing equipment and data center sectors, recommending companies like China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom, among others [2][9] - The report suggests that the optical network upgrade and edge computing sectors present further investment opportunities, with companies like Guangxun Technology and Huagong Technology highlighted as beneficiaries [9][10]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - Meituan's instant retail daily order volume reached 150 million, with significant growth in rider income. On July 12, the daily order volume surpassed 150 million, with an average delivery time of 34 minutes. Rider daily income increased by 111% year-on-year, with high-frequency riders earning an average of 9,793 yuan per month [2][20]. - The "reciprocal tariff" has been postponed until August 1, with the EU potentially facing a 30% tariff. This unilateral action may increase short-term trade volatility between the US and other countries, but there remains cautious optimism regarding the substantive implementation of existing trade agreements [2][20]. - The report maintains a cautious outlook on trade negotiations, emphasizing the importance of AI and domestic consumption in the current global macroeconomic context. It suggests focusing on Chinese tech leaders and highlights potential investment opportunities in Hong Kong internet leaders, the gaming industry, and the film and cultural tourism sectors [3][21]. Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office this week are "Jurassic World: Rebirth" with 107.08 million yuan (26.3% market share), "Malice" with 73.49 million yuan (18.0%), and "F1: Speeding" with 68.55 million yuan (16.8%) [22][24]. Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games are "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Delta Force." The top three Android games are "Douluo Dalu: Soul Hunting World," "Sausage Party," and "Heartbeat Town" [23][25]. TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index are "In the Name of Law" (84.1), "Book of Dreams" (83.4), and "Splendid Blossoms" (82) [26][27]. Variety and Animation - The top variety show is "Running Man Season 9" with a broadcast index of 79.3, followed by "Singer 2025" and "New Rap 2025" [28][30]. The top animation is "Cang Yuan Tu" with a viewership index of 369.3, followed by "Happy Hammer" and "Xian Ni" [29][31].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is currently experiencing adjustments due to a self-correction of excessive risk appetite, with significant fluctuations observed from July 9 to 11, where daily adjustments exceeded 1 basis point [1][22][25] - Despite the frequent negative rotations in the bond market, key variables influencing the market direction, such as fundamentals, central bank attitudes, and external circulation pressures, have not changed [1][25][37] - The report highlights that the bond market's pricing reference may shift from the stock market to fundamentals as economic data is released, indicating a weak correlation between stock market rebounds and bond market pricing [3][36] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent adjustments in the bond market have led to the 10-year and 30-year government bonds returning to relatively high positions at 1.65% and 1.85%, respectively, making the market more sensitive to positive news and less responsive to negative news [4][37] - It emphasizes that the liquidity situation will be a critical observation period for the central bank's attitude, especially with a significant funding gap expected in mid-July [4][26][39] - The report suggests that despite recent increases in funding prices, overnight rates remain relatively low, indicating that leverage strategies may still be preferred in July [6][39][40] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of recent adjustments in the bond market, where the duration of bond funds has decreased, reflecting a shift in market behavior as institutions reduce their duration amid tightening liquidity [6][24][25] - It also mentions that the government bond issuance volume remains above 400 billion, indicating ongoing government financing activities [6][21] - The report highlights that the leverage ratio in the non-bank sector has decreased significantly, indicating a market-wide trend towards deleveraging [6][24] Group 4 - The report outlines the recent changes in the interest rate environment, with the overnight rates rising to 1.40% and 1.51% for R001 and R007, respectively, indicating a tightening liquidity situation [15][25][26] - It notes that the recent adjustments in the bond market have led to a significant increase in the issuance rates of certificates of deposit, reflecting rising costs for banks [29][30] - The report also highlights the ongoing adjustments in the credit bond market, particularly in the long-end segment, where yields have been affected by negative rotations [17][16] Group 5 - The report indicates that the recent changes in tariffs by the U.S. government may have implications for global trade dynamics, with increased tariffs on key countries potentially impacting the bond market [31][32] - It suggests that the market is currently cautious regarding tariff changes, with a wait-and-see approach being adopted by investors [31][32] - The report emphasizes that the bond market's response to external factors, such as tariffs, may not be immediate, and investors are advised to monitor developments closely [31][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (July 7 - 11, 2025), the China Securities REITs Total Return Index closed at 1103.87 points, down 1.12% weekly, and the China Securities REITs (Closing) Index closed at 876.64 points, also down 1.12% weekly. The total market capitalization of 68 listed REITs projects in China's REITs market this week was 205.2 billion yuan, down 1.30% month - on - month. REITs underperformed compared to other major asset classes [1][9]. - In the secondary market, all seven REITs sectors declined, with the rental housing sector having the largest decline of 2.76%, and the energy facilities sector being relatively resilient. The industrial park sector was generally under pressure, with fluctuations in occupancy rates and rental prices [2]. - In the primary market, China Resources Commercial REIT plans a second expansion and acquisition of three Mixc projects in Hangzhou, Shenyang, and Zibo, which have good operations and stable cash flows [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market 3.1.1 Price: Rental Housing with the Largest Decline - All seven REITs sectors declined, with rental housing dropping 2.76%. The 8 REITs in the rental housing sector all fell, with significant declines in CICC Xiamen Anju (-4.44%), Hongtu Innovation Shenzhen Anju (-3.76%), and China Asset Management China Resources Youchao (-3.59%) [2]. - The industrial park sector was generally under pressure, with reduced regional rental demand and intensified competition due to the "price - for - volume" strategy. Reasons for tenants reducing space or leaving included moving to self - owned premises, business difficulties, and normal turnover [2][18]. 3.1.2 Liquidity: Overall Trading Activity Declined - This week, the overall trading activity in the market decreased compared to last week. The average daily trading volume was 550 million yuan, the average daily trading volume was 120 million shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 0.59%, down 17.36%, 18.65%, and 0.15 percentage points respectively [2][24]. - The sectors with relatively high average daily turnover rates this week were municipal environmental protection (1.02%), rental housing (0.78%), and consumer facilities (0.65%), but the turnover rates of all sectors declined compared to last week [27]. 3.1.3 Valuation: Transportation, Warehousing, and Industrial Park Valuations in the Forefront - The decline of REITs this week led to valuation adjustments. In terms of ChinaBond valuation yields, the transportation (5.37%), warehousing logistics (4.97%), and industrial park (4.76%) sectors were in the forefront, with significant valuation differences among projects [36]. - From the perspective of cash distribution rates, the higher - distribution sectors among equity - type projects were transportation (4.30%), warehousing (4.03%), and consumer (3.70%), while the average distribution rate of rental housing was only 2.68% [36]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 China Resources Commercial REIT Plans a Second Expansion to Acquire Three Mixc Projects in Hangzhou, Shenyang, and Zibo - On July 8, China Resources Commercial REIT announced a plan for a second expansion and acquisition of infrastructure projects in Hangzhou Xiaoshan Mixc, Shenyang Changbai Mixc, and Zibo Mixc, expanding its coverage of consumer infrastructure in different cities [39][40]. - Mixc is one of China Resources Group's three major commercial product lines, targeting regional shopping centers in core areas of first - and second - tier cities and core locations of third - tier cities. The projects to be acquired have good operations and stable cash flows [40].

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 13 日 2025 年 H1：归母净利润预计 12.53-13.73 亿元，同比增速 预计 5%-15%；扣非归母净利润预计 12.67-13.88 亿元，同 比增速预计 5%-15%。 根据折算，对应 2025 年 Q2：收入：预计同比持平。归母净 利润：预计 7.92-9.12 亿元，同比增速预计 1.6%-16.9%， 对应中枢值为 8.52 亿元，同比增速预计 9.2%； Q2 收入预计持平，利润预计有所增长。由于关税政策冲击 导致 Q2 实际有 40 天左右，公司各个生产基地的产能均受 到了不同程度的负面影响，订单交付和收入受到较大影响。 利润端，依靠跨境电商销售和新产品特别是电动工具产品销 售的增加有效提升了毛利率水平，预计归母净利润将有所增 长。产能方面，越南和美国已经达成了 20%关税的有效协 议，税率低于去年公司产品从中国出口至美国的 25%关税。 公司越南一期二期生产基地已于去年底前投入使用，体量更 大的越南三期生产基地已于近期投入使用，越南四期生产基 地目前已开工建设。 巨星科技取得来自某国际大型零售业公司的电 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector index increased by 3.96%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.14 percentage points, ranking third among all primary industries [2][15] - The implementation of the "28 Measures for High-Quality Development of the Securities Industry" aims to enhance self-regulation and promote high-quality development within the securities sector [3][16] - The recent notification from the Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of long-term stable investments by state-owned insurance companies, adjusting performance evaluation metrics to include longer time frames [7][17] Market and Sector Performance - The average daily trading volume of A-shares reached 14,961 million yuan, a week-on-week increase of 3.8% and a year-on-year increase of 138.2% [20] - In the second quarter of 2025, the average daily trading volume was 12,886 million yuan, up 55.7% from the same period in 2024 [20] - As of July 10, 2025, the margin trading balance was 18,737.06 billion yuan, a 0.78% increase from the previous period and a 19.57% increase compared to the average level in 2024 [20] Regulatory Developments - The "Implementation Opinions" released by the China Securities Association outlines 28 measures to strengthen self-regulation and enhance the service capabilities of securities firms [3][16] - The new performance evaluation system for state-owned insurance companies will now consider annual, three-year, and five-year indicators for net asset return and capital preservation rates, with respective weights of 30%, 50%, and 20% [7][17][19] Investment Opportunities - The adjustment in performance evaluation metrics for insurance companies is expected to reduce sensitivity to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the willingness of insurance funds to enter the market, potentially stabilizing market operations [8][19] - The securities sector is anticipated to achieve high-quality development as the new measures are gradually implemented, fostering a more robust industry ecosystem [6][16]

Market Review - The domestic market shows a clear "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with rising market risk appetite driven by the ongoing "anti-involution" trend and expectations from important real estate meetings, leading to an increase in stock and commodity markets while the bond market remains under pressure. Major A-share indices saw a broad increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, led by real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors. The banking index reached a historical high on Thursday but adjusted on Friday [1][2]. Market Outlook - The "stabilizing fund" is seen as a stabilizer for A-shares, with three main lines expected to perform well. The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 3500 points for the first time this year, with large financials, "anti-involution," and technology themes showing alternating upward trends. The proportion of financing funds and northbound trading funds in the market has significantly increased, reflecting a recovery in market risk appetite driven by profit-making effects. Unlike the previous "924" rally, the current A-share market valuation has risen from the bottom to above the historical median, indicating that further index gains will require volume support, and short-term market consolidation may be needed. However, the policy support for capital markets remains strong, and the influx of medium- to long-term funds like the "stabilizing fund" suggests limited downside even if the market experiences pullbacks, presenting numerous structural opportunities in a "stable yet rising" environment [2][3]. Industry Allocation - Focus on three main lines for industry allocation: 1) In a low-interest-rate environment, stable dividend assets will continue to be an important direction for medium- to long-term fund allocation 2) Beneficiaries of price increases in related resource sectors, such as minor metals and industrial metals 3) New technology and growth sectors, including military industry, marine economy, AI computing power, and solid-state batteries [2][3].