Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is currently experiencing adjustments due to a self-correction of excessive risk appetite, with significant fluctuations observed from July 9 to 11, where daily adjustments exceeded 1 basis point [1][22][25] - Despite the frequent negative rotations in the bond market, key variables influencing the market direction, such as fundamentals, central bank attitudes, and external circulation pressures, have not changed [1][25][37] - The report highlights that the bond market's pricing reference may shift from the stock market to fundamentals as economic data is released, indicating a weak correlation between stock market rebounds and bond market pricing [3][36] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent adjustments in the bond market have led to the 10-year and 30-year government bonds returning to relatively high positions at 1.65% and 1.85%, respectively, making the market more sensitive to positive news and less responsive to negative news [4][37] - It emphasizes that the liquidity situation will be a critical observation period for the central bank's attitude, especially with a significant funding gap expected in mid-July [4][26][39] - The report suggests that despite recent increases in funding prices, overnight rates remain relatively low, indicating that leverage strategies may still be preferred in July [6][39][40] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of recent adjustments in the bond market, where the duration of bond funds has decreased, reflecting a shift in market behavior as institutions reduce their duration amid tightening liquidity [6][24][25] - It also mentions that the government bond issuance volume remains above 400 billion, indicating ongoing government financing activities [6][21] - The report highlights that the leverage ratio in the non-bank sector has decreased significantly, indicating a market-wide trend towards deleveraging [6][24] Group 4 - The report outlines the recent changes in the interest rate environment, with the overnight rates rising to 1.40% and 1.51% for R001 and R007, respectively, indicating a tightening liquidity situation [15][25][26] - It notes that the recent adjustments in the bond market have led to a significant increase in the issuance rates of certificates of deposit, reflecting rising costs for banks [29][30] - The report also highlights the ongoing adjustments in the credit bond market, particularly in the long-end segment, where yields have been affected by negative rotations [17][16] Group 5 - The report indicates that the recent changes in tariffs by the U.S. government may have implications for global trade dynamics, with increased tariffs on key countries potentially impacting the bond market [31][32] - It suggests that the market is currently cautious regarding tariff changes, with a wait-and-see approach being adopted by investors [31][32] - The report emphasizes that the bond market's response to external factors, such as tariffs, may not be immediate, and investors are advised to monitor developments closely [31][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (July 7 - 11, 2025), the China Securities REITs Total Return Index closed at 1103.87 points, down 1.12% weekly, and the China Securities REITs (Closing) Index closed at 876.64 points, also down 1.12% weekly. The total market capitalization of 68 listed REITs projects in China's REITs market this week was 205.2 billion yuan, down 1.30% month - on - month. REITs underperformed compared to other major asset classes [1][9]. - In the secondary market, all seven REITs sectors declined, with the rental housing sector having the largest decline of 2.76%, and the energy facilities sector being relatively resilient. The industrial park sector was generally under pressure, with fluctuations in occupancy rates and rental prices [2]. - In the primary market, China Resources Commercial REIT plans a second expansion and acquisition of three Mixc projects in Hangzhou, Shenyang, and Zibo, which have good operations and stable cash flows [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market 3.1.1 Price: Rental Housing with the Largest Decline - All seven REITs sectors declined, with rental housing dropping 2.76%. The 8 REITs in the rental housing sector all fell, with significant declines in CICC Xiamen Anju (-4.44%), Hongtu Innovation Shenzhen Anju (-3.76%), and China Asset Management China Resources Youchao (-3.59%) [2]. - The industrial park sector was generally under pressure, with reduced regional rental demand and intensified competition due to the "price - for - volume" strategy. Reasons for tenants reducing space or leaving included moving to self - owned premises, business difficulties, and normal turnover [2][18]. 3.1.2 Liquidity: Overall Trading Activity Declined - This week, the overall trading activity in the market decreased compared to last week. The average daily trading volume was 550 million yuan, the average daily trading volume was 120 million shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 0.59%, down 17.36%, 18.65%, and 0.15 percentage points respectively [2][24]. - The sectors with relatively high average daily turnover rates this week were municipal environmental protection (1.02%), rental housing (0.78%), and consumer facilities (0.65%), but the turnover rates of all sectors declined compared to last week [27]. 3.1.3 Valuation: Transportation, Warehousing, and Industrial Park Valuations in the Forefront - The decline of REITs this week led to valuation adjustments. In terms of ChinaBond valuation yields, the transportation (5.37%), warehousing logistics (4.97%), and industrial park (4.76%) sectors were in the forefront, with significant valuation differences among projects [36]. - From the perspective of cash distribution rates, the higher - distribution sectors among equity - type projects were transportation (4.30%), warehousing (4.03%), and consumer (3.70%), while the average distribution rate of rental housing was only 2.68% [36]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 China Resources Commercial REIT Plans a Second Expansion to Acquire Three Mixc Projects in Hangzhou, Shenyang, and Zibo - On July 8, China Resources Commercial REIT announced a plan for a second expansion and acquisition of infrastructure projects in Hangzhou Xiaoshan Mixc, Shenyang Changbai Mixc, and Zibo Mixc, expanding its coverage of consumer infrastructure in different cities [39][40]. - Mixc is one of China Resources Group's three major commercial product lines, targeting regional shopping centers in core areas of first - and second - tier cities and core locations of third - tier cities. The projects to be acquired have good operations and stable cash flows [40].

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 13 日 2025 年 H1：归母净利润预计 12.53-13.73 亿元，同比增速 预计 5%-15%；扣非归母净利润预计 12.67-13.88 亿元，同 比增速预计 5%-15%。 根据折算，对应 2025 年 Q2：收入：预计同比持平。归母净 利润：预计 7.92-9.12 亿元，同比增速预计 1.6%-16.9%， 对应中枢值为 8.52 亿元，同比增速预计 9.2%； Q2 收入预计持平，利润预计有所增长。由于关税政策冲击 导致 Q2 实际有 40 天左右，公司各个生产基地的产能均受 到了不同程度的负面影响，订单交付和收入受到较大影响。 利润端，依靠跨境电商销售和新产品特别是电动工具产品销 售的增加有效提升了毛利率水平，预计归母净利润将有所增 长。产能方面，越南和美国已经达成了 20%关税的有效协 议，税率低于去年公司产品从中国出口至美国的 25%关税。 公司越南一期二期生产基地已于去年底前投入使用，体量更 大的越南三期生产基地已于近期投入使用，越南四期生产基 地目前已开工建设。 巨星科技取得来自某国际大型零售业公司的电 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector index increased by 3.96%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.14 percentage points, ranking third among all primary industries [2][15] - The implementation of the "28 Measures for High-Quality Development of the Securities Industry" aims to enhance self-regulation and promote high-quality development within the securities sector [3][16] - The recent notification from the Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of long-term stable investments by state-owned insurance companies, adjusting performance evaluation metrics to include longer time frames [7][17] Market and Sector Performance - The average daily trading volume of A-shares reached 14,961 million yuan, a week-on-week increase of 3.8% and a year-on-year increase of 138.2% [20] - In the second quarter of 2025, the average daily trading volume was 12,886 million yuan, up 55.7% from the same period in 2024 [20] - As of July 10, 2025, the margin trading balance was 18,737.06 billion yuan, a 0.78% increase from the previous period and a 19.57% increase compared to the average level in 2024 [20] Regulatory Developments - The "Implementation Opinions" released by the China Securities Association outlines 28 measures to strengthen self-regulation and enhance the service capabilities of securities firms [3][16] - The new performance evaluation system for state-owned insurance companies will now consider annual, three-year, and five-year indicators for net asset return and capital preservation rates, with respective weights of 30%, 50%, and 20% [7][17][19] Investment Opportunities - The adjustment in performance evaluation metrics for insurance companies is expected to reduce sensitivity to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the willingness of insurance funds to enter the market, potentially stabilizing market operations [8][19] - The securities sector is anticipated to achieve high-quality development as the new measures are gradually implemented, fostering a more robust industry ecosystem [6][16]

Market Review - The domestic market shows a clear "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with rising market risk appetite driven by the ongoing "anti-involution" trend and expectations from important real estate meetings, leading to an increase in stock and commodity markets while the bond market remains under pressure. Major A-share indices saw a broad increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, led by real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors. The banking index reached a historical high on Thursday but adjusted on Friday [1][2]. Market Outlook - The "stabilizing fund" is seen as a stabilizer for A-shares, with three main lines expected to perform well. The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 3500 points for the first time this year, with large financials, "anti-involution," and technology themes showing alternating upward trends. The proportion of financing funds and northbound trading funds in the market has significantly increased, reflecting a recovery in market risk appetite driven by profit-making effects. Unlike the previous "924" rally, the current A-share market valuation has risen from the bottom to above the historical median, indicating that further index gains will require volume support, and short-term market consolidation may be needed. However, the policy support for capital markets remains strong, and the influx of medium- to long-term funds like the "stabilizing fund" suggests limited downside even if the market experiences pullbacks, presenting numerous structural opportunities in a "stable yet rising" environment [2][3]. Industry Allocation - Focus on three main lines for industry allocation: 1) In a low-interest-rate environment, stable dividend assets will continue to be an important direction for medium- to long-term fund allocation 2) Beneficiaries of price increases in related resource sectors, such as minor metals and industrial metals 3) New technology and growth sectors, including military industry, marine economy, AI computing power, and solid-state batteries [2][3].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [1] Core Viewpoints - The memorandum signed by U.S. Secretary of Defense aims to reform the U.S. military drone strategy, targeting dominance in the small drone sector by 2027, emphasizing modernization, production expansion, and regulatory relief [1][2] - The U.S. military is shifting towards a low-cost, disposable, and distributed drone combat system, recognizing the effectiveness of inexpensive drones in modern warfare [2] - The memorandum allows military commanders to independently procure and test drones, reclassifying small drones as "consumable assets" rather than durable military equipment [3][5] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The U.S. government will provide financing options for domestic drone manufacturers, including pre-purchase commitments and direct loans [3] - The memorandum revokes previous policies that restricted the procurement of drones from certain countries, streamlining the acquisition process [3] - Commanders from the rank of captain to colonel are authorized to procure and test compliant small drones, including those with 3D-printed components [5] Development and Testing - The establishment of at least three national drone test ranges with diverse terrains is mandated within 90 days [4] - The military aims to create a comprehensive drone system, with hundreds of different models to be procured [5] - By September 2025, the military branches are required to establish experimental drone units to facilitate rapid deployment [6] Technological Integration - AI technology significantly enhances drones' capabilities, allowing for improved environmental perception and autonomous decision-making [7] - Drones are equipped with multi-modal sensors for comprehensive situational awareness, optimizing flight paths and reducing energy consumption [7] Market Dynamics - China dominates the commercial drone production sector, accounting for 70% to 80% of global supply, benefiting from cost-effective production and supply chain efficiencies [8] - Recent trends show a significant increase in the prices of drone components due to supply chain constraints, despite a drop in export volumes [8] Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies include: - Ruichuang Micro-Nano, a leader in multi-dimensional sensing with a full industrial chain in infrared technology [9] - Fudan Microelectronics, a domestic leader in FPGA technology with applications in drones [11] - Aerospace Rainbow, specializing in high-end military drones with advanced capabilities [11]

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 13 日 [Table_Title] 跨越 3500，怎么看，怎么办 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ► 行情回顾：跨越 3500 之路 7 月 7-11 日，类权益市场继续走强，上证指数登上 3500 点。 截至 7 月 11 日，万得全 A 收盘价为 5423.46，较 7 月 4 日上 涨 3.56%；中证转债上涨 2.08%，各价位估值均有所拉伸。 上证指数为何能够跨越 3500 点？一方面，市场不缺流动性， 持续夯实的稳市预期，带动风险偏好提升，是当前市场不可 忽视的优势。另一方面，市场不缺叙事，海外算力、稳定 币、"反内卷"、城市更新等均受到市场关注。 这是一个什么样的 3500 点？其一，基本面修复偏缓，主要定 价政策预期；其二，结构行情明显，6 月 23 日以来消费板块 涨幅不明显。其三，赚钱效应仍待提高，主线暂不明朗。 ► 策略：指数高位，挖掘预期差 随着指数来到高位，宏观叙事的影响或将逐渐体现。以基本 面修复偏缓为例，在指数位于相对低位时，这一因素并不会成 为资金决策时的 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate towards mass production due to breakthroughs in AI technology and increasing domestic and international enterprise layouts, with strong demand for domestic replacement of core components [12][15] - The domestic new energy vehicle (NEV) market is experiencing rapid growth, with production and sales in June exceeding 25% year-on-year, driven by technological advancements in vehicle performance [16][18] - The photovoltaic industry chain has seen a significant price increase across the board, with policies promoting orderly competition and a solidified industry foundation [24][29] - The approval of the UK's 1.5GW Mona offshore wind project marks a significant advancement in the European offshore wind sector, with expectations for further auctions and orders in the second half of the year [25][27] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is witnessing increased participation from major tech companies, with a focus on the T-chain and domestic supply chain developments, indicating a robust market opportunity [12][15] - Key components such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials are expected to see significant advancements, enhancing the efficiency and application of humanoid robots [13][15] New Energy Vehicles - The NEV sector is in a growth phase, with new models enhancing performance and cost-effectiveness, supported by advancements in solid-state batteries and other technologies [16][18] - The demand for lithium battery materials is expected to expand due to the recovery of the consumer electronics market and the growth of energy storage applications [20][22] Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a price surge due to supply chain adjustments and policy support, with specific beneficiaries identified in the silicon material and battery sectors [24][29] - The market is expected to stabilize as inventory levels decrease and production capacity is adjusted, with a focus on high-efficiency products and new technologies [30][32] Offshore Wind Power - The approval of the Mona offshore wind project is anticipated to stimulate further developments in the offshore wind sector across Europe, with domestic companies poised to benefit from upcoming orders [25][27] - The demand for offshore wind components is expected to rise, driven by both domestic and international projects, creating opportunities for companies involved in the supply chain [43][45]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The expectation for stablecoin policy is likely to strengthen, with the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission holding a special study meeting on the development trends and response strategies for cryptocurrencies and stablecoins [11][18] - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation has been officially released and is expected to be implemented on August 1, 2025, establishing a licensing system for fiat-backed stablecoin issuers and enhancing the regulatory framework for virtual asset activities [2][19] - The tokenization ecosystem is extending, with application scenarios continuously enriching, as real asset tokenization is accelerating from regional pilots to global collaboration [3][12] Summary by Sections Stablecoin Policy Expectations - The Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's meeting indicates a potential strengthening of domestic stablecoin policies following the implementation of overseas and Hong Kong regulations [11][18] - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation aims to maintain financial stability while promoting financial innovation, with a licensing system for stablecoin issuers [2][19] Tokenization Ecosystem - The tokenization of real assets is gaining momentum, with companies like Ant Group collaborating with Circle Internet Group to adopt stablecoins on their blockchain platform [3][12] - The recent launch of GFToken by Guangfa Securities (Hong Kong) marks a significant step in deploying multi-currency interest rate mechanisms on-chain [3][12] Investment Recommendations - Beneficiary stocks include: - RWA: Xiexin Energy Technology, Langxin Group, Hongbo Co., Hainan Huatie, Youfang Technology, Yingfeng Environment, etc. - Stablecoins: Sifang Jingchuang, Yuxin Technology, Lakala, New Guodu, Jingbeifang, Tianyang Technology, Hengbao Co., Xiongdi Technology, Yuyin Co., Chutianlong, Dazhihui, Yonyou Network, Xinan Century, etc. - Hong Kong stocks: Zhong'an Online, Lianyi Technology, Lianlian Digital, China Everbright Holdings, Yika, etc. - Licensed: China Post Capital, Nanhua Futures, Hongye Futures, Ruida Futures, Guotai Junan International, Yaocai Securities Finance, etc. [6][34] Market Performance - The computer industry saw a weekly increase of 3.22%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.82% [35][36] - Among 321 stocks in the computer sector, 256 stocks rose, indicating a strong market performance [42] Core Recommended Stocks - The top-performing recommended stock was Yuxin Technology, with a weekly increase of 7.59%, while Langxin Group experienced a decline of 3.42% [48] Valuation Overview - The SW computer industry PE (TTM) has risen from a low of 37.60 times in 2018 to 84.59 times, exceeding the historical average of 58.17 times from 2010 to 2025 [51]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has invested billions in MP Materials to accelerate the independence of U.S. rare earth magnets, but global production remains highly concentrated in China in the short term [9][14][45] - Nickel prices have decreased due to a significant drop in demand and production halts in Indonesia, which may impact local mining operations [12][20][23] - Cobalt prices have risen due to supply tightening from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for approximately 75% of global electric vehicle battery supply [13][31] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, but future price movements will depend on downstream demand recovery [7][38][44] - Antimony prices have remained stable, with domestic supply still tight, and production expected to decline in the coming months [32][36] Summary by Sections Rare Earth Industry - MP Materials announced a partnership with the DoD to enhance domestic production capabilities, with a new magnet manufacturing facility expected to be operational by 2028 [45][46] - The DoD has committed to a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for NdPr products, ensuring stable cash flow for MP Materials [46][47] Nickel Industry - As of July 11, LME nickel spot price was $14,955 per ton, down 1.09% from July 4, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 1.83% [20] - Domestic NPI smelting costs remain under pressure, affecting the acceptance of high-priced raw materials [20][23] Cobalt Industry - As of July 11, cobalt prices have shown mixed trends, with electrolytic cobalt at 249,300 yuan per ton, down 0.99%, while cobalt oxide increased by 1.54% [24][31] - The extension of a temporary export ban by the Congolese government is expected to tighten global cobalt supply [31] Lithium Industry - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 63,800 yuan per ton, up 2.36% as of July 11 [7][38] - Market sentiment is cautious, with inventory levels remaining high, limiting upward price movement [38][44] Antimony Industry - Domestic antimony ingot prices have stabilized, with supply constraints expected to support future pricing [32][36]