A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 15.09, with a median of 13.40 and a maximum of 30.60[12] - The PE (TTM) excluding financial and oil sectors is 22.32, indicating a higher valuation in these sectors[6] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE (TTM) of 13.15, while the ChiNext Index stands at 49.24, reflecting significant sectoral differences[12] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 10.65, with a median of 10.25 and a maximum of 22.67[58] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a higher valuation with a current PE of 19.86, indicating investor interest in tech stocks[58] US Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 28.12, with a median of 20.87 and a maximum of 41.99, suggesting a premium valuation compared to other markets[82] - The NASDAQ Index has a PE (TTM) of 42.45, reflecting its growth-oriented nature[88] Sector Valuation Insights - In the A-share market, sectors like non-ferrous metals and food & beverage have lower PE ratios, indicating potential undervaluation[22] - The financial sector, particularly banks and brokers, shows a PB (LF) of 0.91, suggesting a value opportunity compared to historical averages[25] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy effectiveness falling short of expectations and unexpected corporate earnings results, which could impact market valuations negatively[102]

证券研究报告|行业点评报告 通知所指的非车险，是指财险公司经营的除车险、农险、出口信用险、短期健康险和意外险之外所有保险 业务。 通知对财险公司在非车险业务经营方面提出四大要求：1）调整优化考核机制，降低保费规模、业务增速、 市场份额的考核要求，提高合规经营、质量效益、消费者满意度的考核权重。2）应遵循合理、公平、充足原则 厘定费率，合理设置附加费率，不得在费率结构中设置与所提供服务不相符的高额费用水平。附加费率包括费 用附加率、风险附加率和利润附加率。主险的精算报告和附加险的其他备案材料中应明确列示附加费率、平均 手续费率和逐单手续费率上限。3）应严格执行经备案的保险条款。财险公司和保险中介机构不得通过特别约 定、批单、协议、备忘录等方式实质改变经备案的保险条款责任，不得通过拆分保险标的、拆分保额、更改被 保险人性质、更改标的使用性质等形式变相降低保险费率。4）应建立费率定期回溯和动态调整机制，当实际经 营情况与精算假设偏差过大时，应及时进行调整并重新备案，必要时应先行停售相关产品。 同时，通知规范了财险公司对保险中介机构的相关行为。1）不得委托不具备合法资质的机构从事保险销售 活动。不得向不具备合法资质的 ...

[Table_Title] 非农仍强，7 月降息或落空 7 月 3 日，美国劳工部公布 6 月非农数据，非农就业人数增加 14.7 万人，预估增 11 万人，前值上修至 14.4 万人。失业率 4.1%，市场预期 4.3%，前值 4.2%。数据发布后，黄金一度跳水 1%，10 年美债收益率上行约 10bp 至 4.36%，如何看待本次非农的影响？ 第一，非农就业维持较高水平，与申领失业金人数下降一致，指向美国经济仍在温和增长。6 月非农新增就 业 14.7 万，与过去 12 个月平均值 14.6 万基本持平。首次申请最近三周持续下降，从 6 月 7 日的 25.0 万，逐渐 降至 28 日的 23.3 万，下降了 1.7 万。最新的持续申请失业金人数也持平于 196.4 万，未再继续上升。 就业数据指向美国仍处于温和增长中。6 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 和非制造业 PMI 也在反弹，分别较 5 月反弹了 0.5、0.9 个百分点，进一步印证日内瓦协议以来，美国经济正在逐渐修复。 第二，政府就业改善，掩盖了私人部门就业的疲软。非农就业整体超出预期，主要是州和地方政府就业大 幅增加，6 月分别+4.7、3.3 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 03 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：口蜜腹剑 | | | 央行回笼步调加速，但资金面依然超预期宽松。跨月逆回购密集到期，央行持续大额回笼，今日投放量降 至 572 亿元，到期 5093 亿元，净回笼 4521 亿元。尽管连续净回笼，资金面依旧转松，非银资金利率基本稳定 在政策利率之下，隔夜利率由上午的 1.35%，逐步回落至 1.30%水平，并维持至尾盘。全天加权来看，今年以来 R001 首次回落至 OMO 利率下方，环比下行 5bp 至 1.37%，DR001 进一步下行 4bp 至 1.31%；R007、DR007 分别下 行 5bp、4bp，分别至 1.52%、1.47%。 季初资金面转松，叠加存单大额到期冲击告一段落，7 月以来存单发行利率持续下台阶。据各银行 7 月 4 日 发行安排，大型国股行 1 年期存单一级发行利率全线降至 1.60%关口，较前两日（7 月 2 日）1.62%及以上的发行 价格明显下行。 现券方面，资金面宽松助推短端行情，2 到 5 年期限国债表现较优，活跃券收益率下行 0.3-1.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in its main business and the growth of its semiconductor segment, particularly in 3D packaging technology [2][8] - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a projected increase in revenue from 5.85 billion yuan in 2024 to 7.58 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30% [9][11] - The net profit is expected to rise from 1.40 billion yuan in 2025 to 2.25 billion yuan in 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [9][11] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.30%, with Q4 alone contributing 1.76 billion yuan, a remarkable growth of 153% year-on-year [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.48 billion yuan, up 22.35% year-on-year, continuing the upward trend [2] - The revenue breakdown shows significant contributions from various segments: lithium battery equipment, consumables, automotive wiring harnesses, and semiconductors, with the latter experiencing a 196% increase in 2024 [2][3] Profitability - The company reported a net profit of 0.86 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.04%, with Q4 net profit reaching 0.65 billion yuan, up 804% year-on-year [3] - The net profit margin improved significantly, with a net margin of 14.52% in 2024, and Q4 net margin reaching 36.81%, reflecting a substantial enhancement in profitability [3][7] - The gross margin for 2024 was 56.89%, with Q4 gross margin at 69.66%, indicating strong operational efficiency [3][7] Semiconductor Business - The company has established a comprehensive ultrasonic technology platform, expanding into various sectors including power batteries, automotive wiring harnesses, and advanced packaging in semiconductors [8][14] - The semiconductor segment is expected to see rapid growth, with projected revenues of 0.99 billion yuan in 2025, increasing to 3.94 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 100% [23][24] Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 10.44 billion yuan in 2026 and 14.46 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits expected to reach 2.25 billion yuan and 3.42 billion yuan respectively [9][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 1.21 yuan in 2025 to 2.95 yuan in 2027, indicating strong growth potential [9][11] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is considered low compared to peers, suggesting potential for price appreciation [9][28]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 02 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：不卷的预期，内卷的现实 | | | 复盘与思考: 7 月 2 日，近期中央财经委员会上强调的"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退出"成为今 日市场交易重心，股市定价后续企业走出内卷的预期。尽管市场一致期盼"不卷"，但投资者行为依旧"很卷"， 股市顺着供给侧的逻辑继续挖掘新题材，债市则在不多不空的环境下继续掘金利差机会。 国内资产方面，股市，大盘表现依旧稳定，上证指数小幅下跌 0.09%，沪深 300、中证红利上涨 0.02%、 0.72%；双创概念走弱，资金或在寻找新的方向，科创 50、创业板指下跌 1.22%、1.13%；中小微盘表现分化，中 证 1000、中证 2000 下跌 1.01%、0.85%，万得微盘股指则上涨 0.20%。债市，10 年、30 年国债活跃券下行 0.2bp、0.3bp 至 1.64%、1.85%；10 年、30 年国债期货主力合约上涨 0.14%、0.40%。 国际大宗商品价格延续温和上涨，而美元指数低位反弹。今日开盘后，国际主要大宗商品 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - Investment Rating: Not provided in the report - Core View: In the second half of 2025, credit bond investment should focus on three elements: the trend of funds and interest rates, the supply - demand pattern of credit bonds, and the cost - effectiveness of different varieties. Interest rates may continue to decline in a volatile manner, making the coupon value of credit bonds prominent, but the valuation volatility may increase. The overall supply of credit bonds may be difficult to expand, and the configuration demand may weaken from August to December. Different investment strategies are recommended for different periods and varieties [1][18] Group 2: 1. Steady Coupon as the Foundation, Grasp the Trading Rhythm 1.1. Short - to Medium - Duration Credit Spread Compression for Coupon Income, Seize Phased Opportunities in Long - Duration Bonds - H1 2025 Review: The credit bond market experienced an increase in yields and a widening of credit spreads from January to mid - March, followed by a rotation of the market to medium - to long - duration and then ultra - long - duration bonds from April to June. The main factors in the first quarter were the tight funds and the change in wealth management scale. In mid - to late March, the bond market recovered, driven by supply shrinkage and the cost - effectiveness of varieties. From April to June, the market was affected by interest rate fluctuations and the shift of the funds' central point [12][13] - June 2025 Highlights: The long - duration credit bond market was activated, mainly due to the compression of short - to medium - duration credit spreads to historical lows and the increased demand from funds, insurance, and other products. The scale of credit bond ETFs increased by 7.7 billion yuan in June, which also drove the demand for some long - duration component bonds [14][16] - H2 2025 Outlook: Interest rates may continue to decline in a volatile manner. The supply of credit bonds may be difficult to expand, with the decrease in urban investment bonds offset by the increase in industrial bonds. The wealth management scale usually increases significantly in July but weakens from August to December. The rectification of wealth management's net - value smoothing methods may suppress the demand for ultra - long - duration and low - rated medium - to long - duration bonds. It is recommended to increase positions in July, take profits in August, and reduce credit bond positions from August to December, switching to inter - bank certificates of deposit and interest - rate bonds [18][19][21] - Variety Cost - Effectiveness: The 10Y high - grade credit bonds have relatively large potential for credit spread compression. As of June 30, the credit spreads of 10Y high - grade medium - term notes are still 8 - 11bp higher than the average. Short - to medium - duration credit spread compression may still be the dominant strategy. Bonds with a yield of 2.0% - 2.2% in the 1 - 3 - year AA and AA(2) categories have high allocation value. High - grade 5 - year bonds can be considered when the credit spread adjusts to the mean + 1 standard deviation [22][30][35] 1.2. Grasp the Trading Rhythm of Bank Capital Bonds 1.2.1. Difficult for Bank Capital Bond Supply to Expand in H2 2025 - H1 2025 Review: The supply of bank capital bonds increased slightly. The net financing of secondary capital bonds increased year - on - year, while that of perpetual bonds decreased. The city commercial banks increased their issuance scale, while the supply from rural commercial banks was weak [39] - H2 2025 Outlook: The demand for new capital bonds from the Big Four banks may decrease after the capital injection in June. Although small and medium - sized banks may increase issuance if the cost is low, the overall net supply is difficult to expand [40] 1.2.2. Narrower Bandwidth for Band - Trading in Bank Capital Bonds, Reverse Trading May Yield Higher Win - Rates - H1 2025 Review: The yields of bank capital bonds showed differentiation. The yields of 1 - 5Y large - bank bonds generally increased, while those of 10Y secondary capital bonds and 1 - 4Y small - and medium - bank bonds mostly decreased. The credit spreads of most varieties compressed, with short - duration and low - grade bonds performing better [44] - H2 2025 Outlook: The bank capital bonds still have trading opportunities following interest - rate bonds, but the credit spread compression space is limited. Reverse trading (increasing positions during adjustments) may have a higher win - rate. The 4 - year and 6 - year bonds have higher riding yields and better holding experiences [50][51] Group 3: 2. Urban Investment Bonds: Negative Net Financing in H1, a Historical First - H1 2025 Supply: The supply of urban investment bonds shrank, with negative net financing for the first time in history. From January to June, the issuance was 2.9464 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 382.9 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 71.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 218.5 billion yuan, mainly due to the tightening of bond - issuing policies [55] - Issuance Characteristics: The overall issuance sentiment was good, with a high proportion of over - subscribed issuances. The proportion of 3 - 5 - year issuances increased, while that of within - 1 - year issuances decreased. The issuance interest rates decreased overall, with greater declines in short - to medium - term bonds [55][56] - Regional Differences: The net financing performance of urban investment bonds varied by region. Most regions had negative net financing, mainly affected by district - level and park - level platforms. Guangdong and Shandong had relatively high positive net financing, while Jiangsu, Hunan, and Chongqing had large negative net financing [58] - Yield and Credit Spread: The yields of urban investment bonds generally decreased in H1, with high - grade long - duration and AA - low - grade bonds performing better. The credit spreads of all maturities and grades narrowed, with low - grade bonds performing more strongly [62][63] - Secondary Market: Since mid - March, the buying interest in the secondary market has been high, with a high proportion of TKN transactions and low - valuation transactions. There was a trend of increasing duration in transactions, and the proportion of AA(2) low - grade transactions remained high [66] Group 4: 3. Industrial Bonds: Supply Increase, Longer Durations in Both Primary and Secondary Markets - H1 2025 Supply: The issuance and net financing of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. From January to June, the issuance was 3.8718 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 309.2 billion yuan, and the net financing was 1.0788 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 40 billion yuan. The new regulations on science and technology innovation bonds contributed to the increase in issuance [18] Group 5: 4. Bank Capital Bonds: Low - Rated Bonds Perform Better, Weak Trading Sentiment - H1 2025 Performance: The yields of bank capital bonds showed differentiation, with short - duration and low - rated bonds performing better. The credit spreads of most varieties compressed, with 1 - 4Y small - and medium - bank capital bonds and 1 - 3Y AA - perpetual bonds having significant spread compression [44] - Trading Rhythm: The trading bandwidth of large - bank long - duration capital bonds has been narrowing, making band - trading more difficult. Reverse trading may be a better strategy. The 4 - year and 6 - year bonds have higher riding yields [48][51]

盈利预期期限结构因子历史表现良好，走势稳定性高。 将盈利预期期限结构"动量 ff"因子与传统分析师预期 调升因子合成后，得到的"合成动量 ff"因子走势进一步改 善，兼具高收益与稳定性。 ► 选股组合表现 在沪深 300、中证 500、中证 800、中证 1000 内分别选择 "合成动量 ff"因子值排名前 50、50、100、100 名的股票， 构成选股组合，组合历史表现良好。 证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 2 日 [Table_Title] 6 月份超额收益加速，上半年全部组合大幅跑赢基准——盈利预 期期限结构选股月报 202507 [Table_Summary] ► 盈利预期期限结构因子 分析师在某一时点会对上市公司未来多年的盈利做出预 测，我们将预期盈利随未来年度变化的趋势称为盈利预期期 限结构。 2025 年 6 月，沪深 300 选股组合、中证 500 选股组合、 中证 800 选股组合、中证 1000 选股组合超额收益加速，大幅 跑赢基准，超额收益分别为 4.29%、2.36%、3.72%、1.69%。 2025 年前 6 个月，沪深 300、中 ...

Group 1: Government Bond Issuance Overview - In Q2 2025, the net issuance of government bonds reached approximately 6.66 trillion CNY, with a historical high of 1.91 trillion CNY in treasury bonds, marking an increase of 841.6 billion CNY year-on-year[1] - Local government bonds issued totaled 2.6481 trillion CNY in Q2 2025, with a net issuance of 1.7853 trillion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 869.5 billion CNY[1] - Policy financial bonds saw a net issuance of 594.8 billion CNY in Q2 2025, up 125.6 billion CNY from Q1, but down 2.062 trillion CNY compared to the same period last year due to a high base effect[2] Group 2: Q3 and Q4 Projections - For Q3 2025, total government bond net issuance is projected to be between 3.84 trillion and 4.38 trillion CNY, with treasury bonds estimated at 2.09 to 2.63 trillion CNY[3] - Local government bonds are expected to see a net issuance of approximately 1.75 trillion CNY in Q3, slightly down by 350 billion CNY from Q2 but up by 560 billion CNY compared to the 2020-2024 average[3] - In Q4 2025, the net issuance of government bonds is anticipated to be around 1 trillion CNY, with both treasury and local bonds expected to decrease in net supply compared to Q3[4] Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - There is a risk that actual issuance of local government bonds may differ significantly from planned amounts, influenced by domestic policy adjustments and economic performance exceeding expectations[7] - The issuance of policy financial bonds may not see significant increases in Q3, with estimates around 600 billion CNY, as the central bank's actions could reduce the need for such bonds[3] - The overall supply pressure for government bonds is expected to be higher in July, with net issuance potentially reaching 1.47 to 1.65 trillion CNY, tapering off in subsequent months[3]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：美元怎么了？ 国内商品方面，黑色系与地产后周期品种承压，情绪偏弱。黑色系中，焦煤和焦炭价格跌幅较大，分别下 跌 3.32%和 2.46%，铁矿石、螺纹钢分别下跌 1.32%、0.20%，仅热轧卷板录得 0.06%的小涨。后地产链的玻璃同 样表现较弱，大幅下跌 3.73%。此外，光伏产业链上游的工业硅与多晶硅价格也出现明显回调，分别下跌 4.31% 和 2.39%。 复盘与思考: 7 月 1 日，股债双牛。股市中季末走弱的几个板块均迎来反弹，债市收益率在季初宽松的底色下重回下行。 除了股债以外，黄金与美元是另一条重要主线，美元指数经历"九连跌"后来到 96.5 附近，黄金价格顺势反 弹，各交易所金价涨幅均在 1.40%以上。 美元到底发生了什么？2025 上半年，美元指数累积跌幅达到 10.8%，创出最近 52 年（1973 以来）上半年 最糟糕表现。今日美元指数继续下跌 0.3%。近期美元指数疲软，可能受到几个因素影响： 一是降息预期升温，CME FedWatch 显示，美联储 9 ...