Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, highlighting that this collaboration will facilitate liquidity management by the central bank, even with potential increases in bond supply [2][10] - The central bank's holdings of government bonds have decreased from a peak of 2.88 trillion yuan to 2.29 trillion yuan, indicating a gradual reduction in long-term liquidity [2][10] - The current 10-year government bond yield has risen close to 20 basis points from its low, providing room for the central bank to resume government bond trading operations [2][10] Group 2 - As of September 14, the cumulative issuance of replacement bonds reached 1.951 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 97.55%, while new general bonds and special bonds have also seen significant issuance [4][18] - The report notes that the issuance plan for local government bonds in September is 679.7 billion yuan, with expectations of a noticeable decline in government bond supply starting in October [4][18] - The report identifies three opportunities for narrowing the yield spread between local government bonds and national bonds, including the potential for lower issuance rates and reduced supply [5][19] Group 3 - The liquidity in the market remains comfortable, with key money market rates such as DR001 and R001 maintaining levels between 1.31-1.36% [3][20] - The report indicates that the total maturity of interbank certificates of deposit has surged to 1.2098 trillion yuan, leading to increased pressure on renewals [3][20] - The central bank's open market operations have seen a net withdrawal of 12.047 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing liquidity management efforts [31][32] Group 4 - The report tracks government bond issuance, noting that from September 1 to September 7, national bonds issued amounted to 349.07 billion yuan, with net financing of 169.83 billion yuan [38][42] - The expected issuance of national bonds from September 8 to September 14 is 491 billion yuan, with net financing projected at 340.22 billion yuan [38][42] - Local government bonds issued during the same period are expected to total 301.67 billion yuan, with a significant portion attributed to refinancing [38][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The comprehensive quantitative model remains bearish overall. The intensity of the current "watch stocks, trade bonds" market since late July exceeds that of other periods in the past three years, and it may become a new trend rather than a short - term shock [1][2][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Performance 3.1.1 Secondary Market Trends This week, the yield curve fluctuated within a narrow range. The medium - and short - term interest rates of Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds declined. The short - term interest rates of Agricultural Development Bank bonds and Export - Import Bank bonds declined significantly. The 30 - year Treasury bond yield declined by the largest margin of - 2.5BP, and the yield of China Development Bank bonds around the 6 - year mark declined by the largest margin of - 2.4BP [1][5]. 3.1.2 Primary Market Trends This week, 5 Treasury bonds, 8 China Development Bank bonds, 6 Agricultural Development Bank bonds, and 1 Export - Import Bank bond were issued. Among Treasury bonds, the 1 - month 25 Discount Treasury Bond 54 had a high full - subscription multiple of 3.08 times. Among policy - financial bonds, the 7 - year 25 China Development Bank Clean - issued Bond 04 had a high full - subscription multiple of 5.51 times. The overall full - subscription multiples of Agricultural Development Bank bonds and Export - Import Bank bonds were relatively low [14]. 3.2 Latest Results of Each Calculation Model The comprehensive signal model has been bearish since July 10, 2025. As of September 5, the long - short ratio model and the fund duration model are bullish, while the rest are bearish. This week, the fund duration model changed from bearish to bullish on September 3 [18][20][29]. 3.3 Recent Behavioral Characteristics of Each Institution This week, the rolling cumulative net purchases of 10 - year policy - financial bonds, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds by funds continued to rise. Fund companies' net purchases of 10 - year policy - financial bonds and 30 - year Treasury bonds increased significantly. Rural commercial banks changed from cumulative net purchases to cumulative net sales of 10 - year policy - financial bonds and 30 - year Treasury bonds. Securities companies changed from net sales to net purchases of 3 types of long - term interest - rate bonds [2][31][39]. 3.4 Recent Stock - Bond Correlation Performance Under the influence of the good performance of the equity market recently, the bond market has been weak overall. From July 22 to September 5, the correlation coefficient between stocks and bonds remained at a high level, lasting for 34 trading days with a total upward amplitude of 15.9BP. This market may become a new trend [45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the 3C equipment sector, suggesting that the sector is likely to enter a period of high prosperity due to Apple's new manufacturing plan and product innovation cycle [3][40]. Core Insights - Apple has announced a new "Made in America" initiative, committing to invest a total of $600 billion in the U.S. over the next four years, marking the largest investment in the U.S. in Apple's history [1][10]. - The new product innovation cycle is expected to begin, with the introduction of multiple new products, including the iPhone 17 series, which will feature a thinner design and may eliminate the SIM card slot in most markets, pushing for a transition to eSIM technology [2][14]. - The return of production lines to the U.S. and the upcoming new products are anticipated to boost demand for 3C equipment, leading to a favorable market environment for domestic 3C equipment companies [3][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Apple's "Made in America" Initiative - Apple has increased its investment in the U.S. by an additional $100 billion, totaling $600 billion, to accelerate production domestically [1][10]. - The initiative involves collaboration with ten U.S. companies, including Corning and Applied Materials, to enhance local manufacturing capabilities [12][13]. 2. New Product Innovation Cycle - Apple is set to launch several new products, including the iPhone 17 Air, which will replace the Plus model and focus on a lightweight design [2][14]. - Future product plans include significant design innovations for iPhones, such as foldable models and all-glass designs, as well as new entries into smart home devices and augmented reality products [2][21]. 3. 3C Equipment Sector Outlook - The report highlights that the demand for 3C equipment is expected to rise due to Apple's manufacturing plans and the introduction of new products [3][22]. - Key domestic 3C equipment companies mentioned include: - **Bohong Precision**: Focused on automation equipment and has secured orders for new AR/MR production equipment [23][26]. - **Lian De Equipment**: A leading supplier of semiconductor display automation equipment, benefiting from the rise in flexible AMOLED usage [27][28]. - **Lian Win Laser**: Known for precision laser welding equipment, with increasing orders for small steel shell battery welding devices [31][32]. - **Jie Put**: A pioneer in optical detection and laser processing equipment, with significant revenue growth [31][35]. - **Genesis**: A leader in high-end CNC machine tools, recognized for its drilling and tapping machines in the 3C sector [34][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Shengquan Group and Hailide, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the chemical industry [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong half-year performance, particularly Shengquan Group, which benefits from the AI capital investment in new materials, and Hailide, a leader in the polyester industrial yarn sector, which is expected to gain from the US tariff conflicts [1][3]. - The phosphate fertilizer export window is open, with high demand expected to continue, alleviating domestic overcapacity issues and supporting profitability for large phosphate chemical companies like Yuntianhua [1]. - The report highlights the potential for the pesticide industry to improve due to increased safety regulations following recent chemical accidents, which may lead to the elimination of non-compliant production capacities [2]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Overview - The basic chemical industry index closed at 4009.06 points, down 1.36% from the previous week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.55% [9]. - Among 462 stocks in the chemical sector, 31% saw weekly gains while 68% experienced declines [17]. Key Chemical Products - The report tracks 380 chemical products, with 64 experiencing price increases and 95 seeing declines. Notable price increases were observed in products like methyl isobutyl ketone and paraquat [20]. - The top ten products with price increases included methyl isobutyl ketone (up 10%) and paraquat (up 7%) [21]. Focus on Key Sub-industries - In the polyester filament sector, prices remained stable with slight increases noted in various filament types, while the market sentiment remains cautious due to weak downstream demand [23][24]. - The tire industry reported a decrease in operating rates, with full steel tire rates at 60.85% and semi-steel tire rates at 65.87%, reflecting a decline in production activity [32]. - The refrigerant market showed strong price performance, particularly for R22 and R134a, driven by stable demand and limited supply [41][42]. Company Performance Forecast - Shengquan Group is projected to have an EPS of 1.53 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 20, while Hailide is expected to have an EPS of 0.37 and a PE ratio of 17, both receiving a "Buy" recommendation [3].

九方智投控股（09636.HK）深度报告 To C 流量精准转化与科技赋能下的高成长性 2025 年 09 月 08 日 ➢ 九方智投控股：凭借科技驱动的智能化投顾服务，在中国在线投资决策解决 方案市场中占据领先地位。公司深耕证券投资咨询领域，通过 AI 技术、大数据 分析、智能化投顾体系及 MCN 流量运营，形成了独特的商业模式。近年来，公 司积极推动业务模式升级，深化 To C 端流量精准转化，并通过科技赋能优化投 资者体验。公司股东结构稳定，管理团队经验丰富，为企业长期发展奠定了坚实 基础。同时，公司持续加大在投研、科技、流量运营等关键领域的投入，提升市 场竞争力。 ➢ 公司业务规模持续扩张，盈利能力在市场环境影响下有所波动，但成本优化 和现金流管理成效显著。公司营业收入快速增长，2019 至 2023 年复合增长率 达 63.7%，2024 年全年收入达 23.0 亿元，同比增长 17.4%。受市场活跃度变 化影响，公司净利润呈周期性波动，2023 年归母净利润为 1.9 亿元，同比下降 58.5%，2024 年回升至 2.7 亿元，同比增长 42.4%；2025H1 归母净利润进一 步回升至 8.7 ...

Export Performance - In August, China's export growth rate (in USD) was 4.4%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Exports to ASEAN increased by 22.5%, marking the highest level this year, indicating strong supply chain advantages[4] - Exports to the EU rose to 10.4%, while exports to Africa and India also showed positive growth rates of 25.9% and 9.1% respectively[4][18] Import Trends - August's import growth rate was 1.3%, also down by 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting weak domestic demand[3] - Key imports such as iron ore, steel, and refined oil saw significant declines, with refined oil down by 27.9% and coal down by 35.9%[7] - The import of high-tech products like integrated circuits and machine tools remained strong, but general trade imports turned negative, indicating a need for further recovery in domestic demand[7][23] Economic Implications - The trade surplus is expected to continue supporting GDP growth amid weak import performance and new export momentum[3] - The overall economic growth momentum in the second half of the year remains uncertain, with the need for further stimulation of domestic demand highlighted[3][8]

➢ 投资建议：考虑到关税有望持续转移给美国消费者，并且龙头轮胎企业利润 有望随着全球化进程深入不断提升，建议重点赛轮轮胎、森麒麟、玲珑轮胎。 ➢ 风险提示：航运费显著涨价，原材料价格显著上涨，轮胎销售不及预期，政 策不及预期的风险。 [Table_Author] 分析师 刘海荣 | 执业证书： S0100522050001 | | | --- | --- | | 邮箱： | liuhairong@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 刘隆基 | | 执业证书： S0100524080006 | | | 邮箱： | liulongji@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 化工行业点评报告 多家轮胎企业发布涨价通知，看好轮胎企业利润修复 2025 年 09 月 08 日 ➢ 事件：多家轮胎企业近期发布涨价函，9 月 4 日山东揽迈轮胎有限公司决定 自 2025 年 9 月 1 日起对全钢 12R22.5 产品，HC218、HC101 价格上调 5%； HC102 上调 4%。13R22.5 全系列产品整体上调 1%，后期根据市场情况每半年 调整一次，直至上调 3%；9 月 1 日，江阴市安基橡胶工业有限公 ...

Group 1: Credit Bond Yield Strategy - The credit bond yield strategy shows advantages as credit bonds have demonstrated strong anti-drawdown characteristics in the current adjustment market, with their adjustment pace and magnitude closely following government bonds [1][9] - The current market conditions suggest that credit bonds still possess certain yield value, warranting continued attention, although the protection space of credit spreads is insufficient [1][9] - Historical data indicates that September is typically a challenging month for the bond market, with a less than 15% probability of interest rates declining in September over the past seven years [1][16] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Fund Behavior - Credit bonds are expected to continue fluctuating weakly in September, but the adjustment magnitude is relatively controllable, as the net selling momentum of funds may weaken [2][20] - Funds significantly sold off credit bonds with maturities over five years in July and August, totaling over 370 billion yuan, leading to a noticeable reduction in long-term bond positions [2][20] - Despite the large net selling, credit bonds did not experience sustained negative feedback, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [2][20] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on ordinary credit bond varieties, particularly those with good credit quality and larger outstanding amounts, such as 3Y/AAA+ and AAA bonds yielding around 1.88% and 1.90% respectively [3][23] - For urban investment bonds, the yields for bonds with maturities under 2 years have been compressed to historical low levels, suggesting a focus on high-quality issuers in favorable regions [3][23] - The report recommends prioritizing 4Y and 6Y perpetual bonds while avoiding lower-rated options, maintaining a focus on liquidity and flexibility in bond selection [3][23] Group 4: Policy Impact on Economic Growth - Recent policies aimed at boosting high-tech industries and expanding domestic demand are expected to stimulate economic growth, as indicated by rising manufacturing and service sector PMIs [4][27] - The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, while the non-manufacturing PMI reached 50.3%, reflecting an overall improvement in economic conditions [4][27] - The service sector is showing significant recovery, with business activity indices indicating strong growth in capital market services and transportation sectors [4][28]

Group 1 - The report suggests that in the current weak bond market, maintaining a bullet-type portfolio may lead to instability in liabilities, while adopting a trading strategy could enhance returns despite limited execution time and space [1][6][35] - It is recommended to focus on whether interest rates are oversold and if there is a short-term downward adjustment opportunity, as the probability of significant upward movement in interest rates remains low [1][6][35] - The current high level of the futures long-short ratio indicates that short-selling pressure is weak, suggesting that prices are not oversold, with the average cost of 10-year government bonds held by funds around 1.8% [2][7][17] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that if market sentiment reverses and interest rates decline smoothly, a shift back to a buy-on-dips strategy could be considered, although this requires specific events such as a central bank rate cut [2][3][36] - Investors are advised to focus on active long-term interest rate bonds, with expected volatility for 10-year government bonds in the range of 1.7-1.8% [2][3][36] - The report highlights the importance of selecting bonds based on the yield curve and value, recommending specific bonds such as 25T6 for long-term interest rate bonds and 240208 for medium-term bonds [12][9][10] Group 3 - In the context of credit bonds, the report notes that while the funding environment remains loose, attention should be gradually shifted away from medium to long-term credit bonds due to potential funding fluctuations in the upcoming months [3][12] - The report indicates that the performance of TF and T contracts has been relatively better than cash bonds, with the TL main contract being cheaper [3][13] - The report provides a weekly review of the bond market, noting a slight decline in overall interest rates, with short-term bonds performing better under the current conditions [14][15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry, highlighting strong performance and growth potential in various segments [5]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a robust recovery, with significant growth in passenger vehicle sales and a notable increase in new energy vehicle penetration [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of intelligent and electric vehicles, predicting accelerated growth in these areas, particularly for quality domestic brands [12][13]. - The robotics sector is highlighted as a new catalyst for growth, with major players like Tesla advancing in humanoid robot production, which is expected to impact the automotive supply chain positively [2][15]. Summary by Sections Weekly Overview - The automotive sector outperformed the market, with the A-share automotive sector rising by 1.0% from September 1 to September 5, 2025, compared to a 0.6% increase in the CSI 300 index [1][25]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Geely, Xpeng, Li Auto, BYD, and Xiaomi, among others [10]. Weekly Data - In the fifth week of August 2025, passenger car sales reached 523,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month-on-month increase of 9.5% [1][34]. - New energy vehicle sales for the same period were 290,000 units, with a penetration rate of 55.3% [1][34]. Key Developments - Geely's merger with Zeekr received shareholder approval, marking a significant step in its "One Geely" strategy [3][11]. - The introduction of new models, such as the Aion M7, is expected to drive sales further, with pre-orders exceeding 150,000 units within 24 hours [3][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality domestic brands that are accelerating in intelligence and globalization, specifically naming Geely, Xpeng, Li Auto, BYD, and others [4][12]. - In the parts sector, companies involved in intelligent driving and new energy vehicle supply chains are highlighted, including Berteli, Horizon Robotics, and Top Group [4][13]. Robotics Sector Insights - The report notes the increasing pace of domestic humanoid robot manufacturers entering the market, with significant production goals set by Tesla for its Optimus robot [2][15]. - The potential for robotics to integrate with the automotive supply chain is emphasized, suggesting a strong overlap between automotive parts and robotics manufacturing [17]. Motorcycle and Heavy Truck Markets - The motorcycle market is seeing growth in the mid to high displacement segments, with sales of 250cc and above motorcycles increasing significantly [18][19]. - The heavy truck market is expected to benefit from expanded subsidy policies aimed at replacing older vehicles, with sales showing a year-on-year increase of 45.6% in July 2025 [20][21].