电子行业点评 Gemini 发布，谷歌引领下一代 AI 产业浪潮 2025 年 11 月 20 日 ➢ 事件：谷歌官网放出 Gemini 3 Pro 模型卡。Gemini 3 Pro 在推理、多模 态、Agent 能力明显增强，在数学、代码、长文本等领域显著优于 Gemini 2.5 Pro、Claude Sonnet 4.5 与 GPT-5.1；此外，Gemini 3 Pro 采用自研 TPU 训 练，大幅降低训练成本。 （注：股价为 2025 年 11 月 19 日收盘价；未覆盖公司数据采用 wind 一致预期） [Table_Author] 分析师 方竞 执业证书： S0100521120004 邮箱： fangjing@glms.com.cn 分析师 宋晓东 执业证书： S0100523110001 邮箱： songxiaodong@glms.com.cn ➢ Gemini 3 Pro 确立多模态视频理解新标杆，领先优势显著。Gemini 3 Pro 为 Google 新一代原生多模态模型，支持文本、音频、图像、视频等全链路多模 态输入，能够理解和处理完整代码仓库、长视频文档等复杂内容，适合高难度推 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a high-quality mining enterprise focusing on copper, nickel, and cobalt, with significant global expansion since 2016, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia [1][9]. - The divestment of trading operations has led to a substantial improvement in profitability, with copper products becoming the core profit source since 2024, and expectations for record performance in 2025 [1][19]. - The acquisition of the Adumbi gold mine is anticipated to provide new growth momentum, with a projected average annual gold production of 9.4 tons and a low AISC cost of $950 per ounce [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has evolved through three stages since its inception, focusing on non-ferrous metals and expanding into energy metals with a strategic emphasis on resource control and material expansion [9][10]. Profitability Improvement - The company has seen a significant recovery in profitability, with 2024 expected to set a historical high, driven primarily by copper products, which accounted for 40.75% of revenue in 2024 [19][20]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 2.33 billion yuan in 2025 to 3.72 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS increasing from 0.75 yuan to 1.20 yuan [5][4]. Asset Layout Strategy - The company operates a diversified asset portfolio, including the Karongwe copper-cobalt mine and several smelting facilities, with a total copper production capacity of 230,000 tons and cobalt capacity of 17,800 tons [2][14]. - The nickel segment, primarily through the Indonesian project, has a production capacity of 34,000 tons, although profitability has been affected by fluctuating nickel prices [59][61]. Adumbi Gold Mine Acquisition - The planned acquisition of the Adumbi gold mine for 1.35 billion yuan is expected to enhance the company's growth profile, with significant resources and a favorable production cost structure [3][4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow steadily, with estimates of 27.73 billion yuan in 2025 and 30.22 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][4]. - The company’s financial health is improving, with a significant increase in operating cash flow, reaching 3.075 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [35][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the industry, suggesting a focus on specific companies that are expected to benefit from the advancements in HVDC technology and related solutions [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that NVIDIA has introduced an 800VDC solution to address the increasing power density in data centers, which is expected to significantly reduce power loss [2][20]. - The transition from traditional UPS systems to HVDC and solid-state transformer (SST) technologies is seen as a critical evolution in the power supply landscape, with efficiencies exceeding 98% for these new systems [30][34]. - The demand for HVDC technology is accelerating, with major companies like Tencent and Alibaba actively pursuing projects that incorporate these advancements [52][54]. Summary by Sections 1. Power and Efficiency as Core Issues - NVIDIA is leading a new industry direction with its advancements in GPU technology, which has seen a dramatic increase in computational power and energy requirements [11][15]. - The architecture of 800VDC is identified as a key solution to meet the rising demands of AI infrastructure, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [18][19]. 2. HVDC as the Future Industry Evolution Direction - NVIDIA's white paper promotes the adoption of mid-voltage rectifiers and SSTs as future power supply solutions, moving the industry towards more efficient high-voltage direct current (HVDC) systems [20][21]. - The report outlines various transitional power supply solutions, including the white space retrofit and hybrid power systems, leading to the ultimate 800VDC distribution solution [20][21]. 3. HVDC Supply and Demand Assessment - The report notes that both domestic and international leading companies are pushing for the commercialization of HVDC technology, with significant projects planned for 2025 and beyond [52][54]. - Domestic companies like Delta and Eaton are making rapid progress in HVDC technology, with notable advancements in solid-state transformer solutions [54][55]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on terminal manufacturers such as Zhongheng Electric, Kehua Data, and Sunshine Power, which are expected to benefit first from these technological advancements [74]. - It also highlights the importance of transformer technology, recommending companies like Jingquanhua and Igor for potential investment opportunities [74].

电子行业点评 Xiaomi Miloco 亮相，定义全屋智能新未来 2025 年 11 月 19 日 ➢ 事件：11 月 14 日，小米发布智能家居未来探索方案 Xiaomi Miloco（全称 Xiaomi Local Copilot），率先探索由大模型驱动的全屋智能生活。 ➢ 探索大模型+智能家居，用自然语言定义全屋智能。基于大模型独特的开发 范式，Miloco 能让智能家居具备"理解生活"的能力，用户可以和智能家居系 统进行对话沟通，经过大模型的推理计算，自动完成家庭生活中的各类智能需求 和规则，实现更广泛、更具创意的智能联动。 相比而言，由于传统智能家居具备"规则预设固化"+"生态协同不足"的双重 制约，用户不得不手动配置繁琐的自动化规则，且不同品牌设备间缺乏统一联动 标准。而 Miloco 则能为家庭系统赋予一个能理解生活细节的大脑，既可保存"雨 天关窗"、"睡前调温"等场景偏好，还能读懂"想睡个好觉"的语言背后对温度、 光线、噪音等方面的综合需求，支持跨生态设备协作，并在交互中持续优化体验。 与此同时，Miloco 方案还坚持隐私安全优先原则，通过自研大模型+端侧部署， 所有视觉数据都将直接在端侧 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, highlighting the potential for profit recovery and capacity optimization as key investment themes [4][5]. Core Insights - The steel sector has shown a significant recovery in profitability, with the SW Steel index rising by 24.00% in Q1-Q3 2025 and 14.19% from October 2025 to date, outperforming major indices [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of differentiated production restrictions to promote industry consolidation and the transition towards high-value, low-carbon, and intelligent production methods [2][3]. - Manufacturing and direct export demand remain resilient, supporting steel consumption despite a weak construction sector [2]. Summary by Sections Steel Sector Performance - In Q1-Q3 2025, the steel sector's net profit saw a year-on-year increase of 747.63%, with a gross margin recovery to 7.59% and a net margin of 2.19% [17][21]. - The performance of the steel sector has been strong, with the SW Steel index ranking 4th among all sectors since October 2025 [1][11]. Supply-Side Policies - The introduction of differentiated production restrictions aims to eliminate inefficient capacity and enhance industry concentration [2][3]. - New policies are expected to drive the optimization of production capacity, with a focus on high-end, green, and intelligent manufacturing [3][51]. Demand-Side Dynamics - The manufacturing sector, particularly in machinery and commercial vehicles, continues to show strength, while direct exports have increased significantly, supporting steel demand [2][3]. - The construction sector remains weak, but early indicators suggest a stabilization in demand for construction steel [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading steel companies that are well-positioned to benefit from policy support and capacity optimization, such as Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel [3][4]. - For special steel, companies benefiting from downstream demand in automotive and energy sectors are recommended, including Xianglou New Materials and Jiuli Special Materials [3]. - In the raw materials sector, companies with clear growth in non-ferrous resources, such as Dazhong Mining and Hebei Steel Resources, are highlighted [3].

基金分析报告 核心资产基金池 202511：超额稳中有升 2025 年 11 月 18 日 ➢ 从赛道龙头、资源禀赋、优秀的商业模式、技术优势四个角度出发，定义 A 股中的 核心资产。赛道龙头需要行业竞争格局相对稳定、且企业市占率较高。资源禀赋指公司拥 有独特的稀缺资源，主要考虑政府补贴稳定高于同行业水平的政府扶持型、和具备优越地 理位置或自然资源的区位优势型企业。优秀的商业模式直观特点即为高盈利能力，即要求 公司过去 12 个季度均拥有稳定的高 ROE 水平。技术优势可以从研发投入过程和毛利率 提升结果来刻画，即希望研发的投入能够实际为企业创造价值。本报告将优选市场当前的 核心资产基金，以供对其有配置需求的投资者参考。 ➢ 核心资产基金池：低波动。2015 年 2 月 2 日至 2025 年 11 月 7 日，基金池年化收 益率为 13.14%，相对于偏股基金指数超额收益为 3.31%，组合年化夏普比率为 0.85。核 心资产组合在大多数年份实现超额收益，但在极致风格行情，如单边成长牛、单一板块领 涨的阶段中，易出现落后情况。 ➢ 超额收益主要源自行业和选股，风格更偏大盘质量。核心资产型基金池超额主要来 自 ...

成长价值基金池 202511：高年度胜率 2025 年 11 月 18 日 ➢ 买入具有竞争优势的优秀公司，价格合理即可，赚复利增长的钱。成长价值 策略判断内在价值的主要维度：优秀的商业模式和财务健壮性判断。优秀的商业 模式往往意味着持续较高的资产回报率，叠加良好的复利条件就能使得公司的资 产长期稳健增长，即所谓的长坡厚雪。财务健壮性判断则关注财务实力和财务造 假识别，以规避价值毁灭。本报告将优选市场当前的成长价值基金，以供对其有 配置需求的投资者参考。 ➢ 成长价值型基金池：兼具稳定性与进攻性。2015 年 2 月 2 日至 2025 年 11 月 7 日，基金池年化收益率为 16.88%，相对于偏股基金指数超额收益为 7.05%， 同时组合年化波动 20.70%，年化夏普达 0.82，在牛市行情中能够获取较高超额 收益，在市场下跌时也能较好控制回撤。组合在多数年份中均能跑赢偏股基金指 数，近四个月组合超额收益约 4.65%。 ➢ 超额收益主要源自选股，行业轮动明显。选股能力为组合主要的超额收益来 源，行业配置和动态调整也有明显贡献。风格上，长期来看价值和成长属性整体 均不突出，新一期调仓中，组合持仓市值有 ...

Revenue Insights - From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a growth rate improvement of 0.3 percentage points compared to January to September[1] - In October, the general public budget revenue recorded a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, up from 2.6% in September, driven primarily by tax revenue which grew by 8.6%[1][2] - Personal income tax showed a remarkable year-on-year growth of 27.3%, significantly higher than the previous value of 16.7%, making it a core driver of tax revenue growth[2] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure from January to October 2025 totaled 22.58 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2%[1] - In October, public budget expenditure decreased by 9.8%, marking the first negative growth of the year, attributed to earlier fiscal spending in the first half of the year and constraints from the annual deficit requirements[3] - Infrastructure spending saw a significant decline of 26.7%, indicating reduced support for traditional fiscal investment methods[5] Tax Revenue Dynamics - Non-tax revenue experienced a sharp decline of 33.0%, indicating an ongoing improvement in the quality of fiscal revenue[1] - Export tax rebates fell by 14.8%, suggesting a potential weakening in external demand, consistent with the downward trend in October's export growth[2] - The growth rate of securities transaction stamp duty normalized to 17.5%, down from a previous 342.4%, indicating a return to typical market conditions[2] Fiscal Policy Implications - The tightening of fiscal expenditure in October may necessitate an increase in the deficit ratio next year to support economic continuity, especially with the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan"[3] - Local government land transfer revenue dropped by 27.3%, a significant increase in decline compared to the previous month's -1.0%, impacting government fund expenditures which fell by 38.2%[5]

基金分析报告 长期成长基金池 202511：超额稳健提升 2025 年 11 月 18 日 ➢ 长期成长投资策略在于配置大概率实现盈利持续稳定增长的行业。长期成长 类行业能保持 5-10 年甚至更久的长期稳定盈利增长，一般来说产业需求能够持 续扩张，使得其突破行业渗透率的限制，实现市场规模的逐步提高。代表性行业 如食品饮料、医药。当前选出的长期成长赛道主要集中于有色金属和电力及公用 事业等行业。 ➢ 长期成长型基金池：历史超额收益稳健，但短期受到消费板块影响。2014 年 2 月 7 日至 2025 年 11 月 11 日，基金池年化收益率为 14.30%，相对于偏股基 金指数年化超额收益为 4.47%，组合年化波动 20.96%，年化夏普为 0.68。近五 个月实现超额收益 5.06%。 ➢ 行业配置和选股均贡献高超额收益。基金池整体表现出了较强的行业配置和 选股能力，选股长期稳定地为组合贡献超额收益，偏好高动量、成长属性，最新 一期流动性偏好显著降低。主板块上以消费为主，新一期组合增加了对于医药行 业的持仓。 ➢ 长期成长型基金定义与精选。主要以持仓行业和个股的属性进行长期成长型 基金的定义，选择近一年基 ...

小鹏汽车（9868.HK）系列点评九 2025Q3 盈利能力改善 具身智能开启新时代 2025 年 11 月 18 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：崔琰 分析师：乔木 执业证号：S0100523110002 执业证号：S0100524100002 邮箱：cuiyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：qiaomu@glms.com.cn ➢ 事件：公司发布 2025Q3 财报：2025Q3 实现单季营收 203.8 亿元，同比/ 环比分别为+101.8%/+11.5%。2025Q3 汽车业务毛利率为+13.1%，同比/环比 分别为+4.5pts/-1.2pts。2025Q3 non-GAAP 归母净利润为-1.5 亿元，同环比 减亏 90.1%/60.6%。 ➢ 毛利率超预期 经营质量持续优化 营 收 端 ： 2025Q3 实 现 单 季 营 收 入 203.8 亿 元 ， 同 比 / 环 比 分 别 为 +101.8%/+11.5%。其中 2025Q3 汽车业务收入为 180.5 亿元，同比/环比分别 为+105.3%/+6.9%，主要是由于新推出车型的交付量增加。其他业务方面， 2025Q3 营收由 ...