Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on coal prices, anticipating a rebound due to increased demand from thermal power generation amid high temperatures [1][8]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant supply-demand gap, with domestic coal production and imports decreasing, leading to a total supply reduction of approximately 28.5 million tons, which is much higher than the demand reduction of 7.1 million tons [1][8]. - The report notes that thermal power generation has shown positive growth since late May, with electricity demand reaching historical highs due to rising temperatures, indicating a potential for increased coal demand [1][8]. - The expected peak coal price in mid-August is projected to exceed 750 RMB per ton, with a price midpoint of around 700 RMB per ton for the second half of the year [1][8]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - Domestic raw coal daily production has stabilized at around 13 million tons since April 2025, down from 13.48 million tons in the second half of 2024, leading to an estimated year-on-year reduction of about 19.5 million tons [1][8]. - Coal imports are expected to decrease by approximately 9 million tons year-on-year, contributing to a total supply reduction of 28.5 million tons [1][8]. Inventory - Port inventories are being depleted, with current levels aligning closely with the same period last year, while power plant inventories are lower than in 2023 and 2024 [1][8]. Demand Side - Thermal power generation has seen a year-on-year growth rate of 2.59% and 2.07% in June, reflecting improved electricity demand [1][8]. - The maximum national electricity load reached 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, 2025, an increase of about 200 million kilowatts from the end of June and nearly 150 million kilowatts higher than the same period last year [1][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable performance and production growth, such as Huayang Co., Jin Control Coal Industry, and industry leaders like Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua [2][13]. - It also suggests monitoring companies benefiting from nuclear power growth, such as CGN Mining [2][13].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a bottom-up quantitative analysis to address the challenges of systematic style rotation, identifying five style phases: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value [3][8] - There is an expanding gap between expected growth and actual growth assets, with expected growth primarily driven by the rise of top groups, indicating stronger logic for investment [3][24] - Analysts have further upgraded their expectations for high-growth sectors, suggesting opportunities in high expected growth segments under a generally liquid market environment [3][24] Group 2 - Quality assets are showing a weakening ROE center, and it is not recommended to bottom-fish in this category; dividend assets remain crowded, and relative return targets do not justify pure dividend asset allocations [4][31] - The report recommends focusing on specific sectors for expected and actual growth strategies, including: 1) Coking coal; 2) Power electronics and automation; 3) Railway transportation equipment; 4) Glass fiber; 5) White goods; 6) Agricultural commercial banks; 7) PCB; 8) Multi-sector holdings; 9) Comprehensive finance; 10) Lithium battery equipment [4][24] - The report highlights that the profitability strategy currently recommends sectors such as: buses, beer, liquor, non-dairy beverages, and network integration and tower construction [4][24] Group 3 - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of various strategies since 2009, showing an annualized return of 26.45% and consistent positive excess returns since 2017 [19][22] - The expected growth strategy has shown significant excess returns since 2019, with the latest recommended sectors including: Coking coal, Power electronics and automation, Railway transportation equipment, Glass fiber, and White goods [38][40] - The actual growth strategy focuses on sectors with the highest surprise and growth momentum, with recent recommendations including: Agricultural commercial banks, PCB, Multi-sector holdings, Comprehensive finance, and Lithium battery equipment [40][41]

Employment Data Insights - June non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding the expectation of 106,000, showcasing strong resilience in the job market[1] - The total revisions for April and May added 16,000 jobs, indicating a significant divergence between ADP and non-farm data[1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, breaking the market expectation of 4.3%[2] Government and Private Sector Employment - State and local government hiring surged, contributing 48,000 jobs in June, which was a primary driver of the non-farm payroll increase[2] - Private sector employment saw a surprising decline of 63,000 jobs, falling to 74,000, indicating potential demand slowdown[5] Labor Market Dynamics - Labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, slightly below market expectations, primarily due to reduced labor supply from immigration policies[2] - Average hourly earnings rose by only 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%, suggesting moderated wage growth[5] Economic Risks and Outlook - Persistent high unemployment claims and a rise in initial jobless claims indicate increasing employment difficulties[5] - The manufacturing sector continues to face challenges due to tariff impacts, with job growth remaining stagnant[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company has shown impressive sales performance in the first half of 2025, driven by domestic and export growth, with a total wholesale sales of 2.053 million vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [1]. - The company is benefiting from state-owned enterprise reforms, which are expected to lead to a bottom reversal in performance, with projected revenues of 687.76 billion, 722.06 billion, and 776.21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. - The partnership with Huawei to launch the new smart car brand "Shangjie" is anticipated to enhance sales, with the first SUV model set to be priced between 150,000 and 250,000 yuan [2]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In June 2024, the company sold 365,000 vehicles, with a total of 2.053 million vehicles sold in the first half of 2025, marking a 12.4% increase year-on-year. Notably, the sales of SAIC's new energy vehicles reached 646,000 units, up 40.2% year-on-year [1]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 687.76 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits expected to reach 12.27 billion yuan, translating to an EPS of 1.06 yuan. The PE ratios are projected at 15, 13, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. Strategic Developments - The management restructuring aligns with state-owned enterprise reforms, focusing on domestic market and new energy vehicle development. The new leadership emphasizes resource integration and collaboration to accelerate the company's transformation [2].

基金分析报告 迎接科技新周期：博时上证科创板 100ETF 投资价值分析 2025 年 07 月 03 日 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 ➢ 政策利好、宏观经济回暖、权重行业景气度增强，科创板资产配置优势凸显： ➢ 科创 100 指数投资价值分析： ➢ 博时上证科创板 100ETF 投资价值分析： ➢ 风险提示：1）基金历史业绩不代表未来业绩。本报告仅对基金产品进行定 量不定性分析，不做任何推荐建议。2）量化统计未来有失效风险。 [Table_Author] | 分析师 叶尔乐 | | --- | | 执业证书： S0100522110002 | | 邮箱： yeerle@mszq.com | | 分析师 关舒丹 | | 执业证书： S0100524060004 | | 邮箱： guanshudan@mszq.com | 相关研究 1.量化分析报告：2025 年 6 月社融预测：42 157 亿元-2025/07/01 2.量化周报：维持震荡偏乐观判断-2025/06/ 29 3.量化专题报告：把握爆品脉搏：新消费量化 洞察与选股-2025/06/29 4.金融 ...

政策动态点评 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：张云杰 研究助理：钟渝梅 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525020002 执业证号：S0100124080017 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyunjie@mszq.com 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com "反内卷"的下一步 2025 年 07 月 03 日 ➢ 当下恰逢中央首提"反内卷"一周年，从财经委会议前瞻即将召开的 7 月政 治局会议，"反内卷"可能会进入一个新的阶段。去年 7 月政治局会议首提"防 止'内卷式'恶性竞争"，一周年之际财经委开会再提"治理企业低价无序竞争"， 意味着在今年 7 月政治局会议的准备过程中，"反内卷"也将进入一个新的阶段。 ➢ 如何理解"反内卷"可能进入新阶段？今年的年中经济回顾具有特殊意义， 一方面是决策层"例行"审视上半年经济运行中出现的问题，另一方面也是为了 更好与"十五五"规划相衔接。预计"十五五"规划《建议》将于下半年公布， "十五五"规划的战略之举在于做强国内大循环，其内在要求是加快推进全国统 一大市场建设，"反内卷"自然 ...

比亚迪（002594.SZ）系列点评三十 海外销量再创新高 全球化稳步推进 2025 年 07 月 03 日 ➢ 事件概述：公司发布 6 月产销快报，6 月新能源汽车批发销售 38.3 万辆， 同比+12.0%，环比+0.03%；新能源乘用车批发销售 37.8 万辆，同比+11.0%， 环比+0.2%。分品牌看，6 月王朝海洋、腾势、方程豹、仰望销量分别 34.3 万 辆、15,783 辆、18,903 辆、205 辆。 ➢ 6 月批发同比增长 出口表现亮眼。公司 6 月新能源乘用车批发销售 37.8 万 辆，同比+11.0%，环比+0.2%，海外销量 9.0 万辆，再创新高。新能源乘用车 批发中，其中插混乘用车销售 17.3 万辆，同比-11.5%，环比-1.1%。纯电乘用 车销售 20.7 万辆，同比+42.5%，环比+1.2%。分品牌看，王朝海洋销量 34.3 万辆，秦 PLUS DM-i 5.0、海豹 06 等新车型贡献核心增量；腾势/仰望/方程豹 销量 3.49 万辆，占比 9.1%，高端化加速突破。 ➢ 出海表现亮眼 海外建厂加速推进。受益海外车型上量及区域拓展，6 月新 能源出口销量 9.0 万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [4]. Core Views - The company has set an ambitious annual sales target of 3 million vehicles, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment, which has shown significant year-on-year growth [2][4]. - The company reported a total wholesale volume of 236,000 vehicles in June, a year-on-year increase of 42.1%, with NEV sales reaching 122,367 units, up 85.5% year-on-year [1][2]. - The introduction of new models, such as the Galaxy A7 and M9, is expected to enhance the company's market position and drive sales growth in the coming years [2][3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first half of the year, the company achieved a total wholesale volume of 1.409 million vehicles, representing a 47.4% increase year-on-year [1]. - The NEV segment accounted for 725,000 units sold in the first half, marking a 126.5% increase compared to the same period last year [2]. Product Development - The Galaxy A7 is set to launch in Q3 2025, featuring advanced hybrid technology and a comprehensive range of 2,100 kilometers on a full charge [2]. - The Galaxy M9, a large six-seat plug-in hybrid SUV, is also expected to debut in Q3 2025, equipped with cutting-edge driving assistance systems [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 404.8 billion, 489.7 billion, and 572.8 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 16.2 billion, 22.1 billion, and 26.0 billion RMB [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to grow from 1.61 RMB in 2025 to 2.58 RMB by 2027, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [4][5]. Strategic Moves - The company plans to privatize its high-end brand, Zeekr, to streamline operations and enhance resource allocation, which is expected to improve overall efficiency and competitiveness [3][4].

海外市场点评 市场对降息过于乐观了吗？ 2025 年 07 月 02 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 分析师：邵翔 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525030001 执业证号：S0100524080007 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：linyan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com ➢ 降息，真的能成为美国的救命稻草吗？近期降息预期开始发酵，根据 CME 的 FedWatch 工具显示（截至 2025 年 7 月 2 日），市场预计年内预计降息 3 次， 截止 2026 年年底降息 5 次。市场开始出现"肌肉记忆"，美元和美债利率同步 下行，美股开始拔估值（美股中报还没开始出，盈利变化目前并不明确）。 ➢ 众所周知，降息对股债都是好事，但这里我们可能要给市场泼两盆冷水： ➢ 降息：未必有那么快。 ➢ 联储降息节奏可能比市场预期的线性降息路径要曲折。我们认为，联储的降 息节奏可能不是线性的，因为目前市场没有充分定价美元贬值带来的输入性通 胀。以 2024 年数据为例，美国年进口约 3.3 万亿美元，贸易赤字 ...

➢ 海外销量同比延续增长 全球化积极推进。6 月，公司海外批发销量为 4.0 万 辆，同比+5.2%，环比+16.0%；1-6 月海外批发销量为 19.8 万辆，同比-1.9%。 长城山海炮将在泰国、墨西哥等国家上市；哈弗 H9、哈弗 H5 和坦克 SUV 旗下 产品将重点开拓中东、非洲和拉美市场；巴西工厂经升级改造，将于 2025 年投 产。我们认为，长城汽车完善全球化全动力产品矩阵，深度契合本土化驾驶场景 需求，伴随本地化产能释放，海外体系力优势将进一步凸显，出海战略加速跃升。 ➢ 投资建议：公司新产品国内外推广进展顺利，智能电动化新周期开启，新能 源智能化车型占比快速提升，高端智能化路线愈发清晰。我们预计 2025-2027 年 营业收入为 2,267.8/2,617.0/2,962.5 亿元，归母净利润为 140.9/163.0/182.4 亿元，对应 2025 年 7 月 1 日收盘价 21.43 元/股，PE 为 13/11/10 倍，维持"推 荐"评级。 ➢ 风险提示：车市下行风险；WEY、哈弗等品牌所在市场竞争加剧，销量不及 预期；出海进度不及预期及欧盟关税相关风险。 [盈利预测与财务指标 T ...