Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June 2025 is at 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment[4] - The production index and new orders index are both above 50%, suggesting a recovery in both production and demand[4] - The new export orders index has also shown a slight increase, reflecting a positive trend in external demand[4] Group 2: Economic Analysis - The increase in June's PMI is supported by more working days compared to May, which historically correlates positively with PMI readings[4][11] - External uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. tariff policies, have decreased, alleviating downward pressure on the PMI[5] - Despite the improvements, the PMI remains below the neutral line, indicating ongoing structural risks in the economy[6] Group 3: Sector Performance - The PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises in June are 51.2%, 48.6%, and 47.3% respectively, with small enterprises showing a decline of 2.0 percentage points[6] - Price indices within the PMI have risen but remain below the neutral line, indicating continued pressure on pricing power due to tariff uncertainties[7] - The construction sector's PMI improved to 52.8%, while the services PMI slightly decreased to 50.1%, highlighting a divergence in sector performance[8][22]

保险行业点评 寿险快速回暖，财险多险种共振支撑增长 2025 年 06 月 30 日 ➢ 渠道来看，头部险企推进代理人"质态升级"，高产能代理人占比提升，推 动高价值储蓄型产品新单增长；"报行合一"实施后银保渠道资源进一步向期缴、 中长期储蓄型产品倾斜，有望推动银保渠道规模和价值占比持续提升。年初由于 去年同期较高基数以及各大险企切换分红险，保费规模同比短期有所承压，伴随 市场利率的持续下行，保险产品需求有望凭借"保障+投资收益共享"的特点而 持续复苏。 ➢ 健康险短期波动不改长期成长逻辑。2025 年 1 至 5 月健康险保费收入 3,879 亿元，同比+0.9%；5 月单月健康险保费收入 624 亿元，同比-6.3%。健康险保 费收入同比小幅回落，我们认为主要由于三医改革控费背景下，高价药械使用减 少，导致健康险的赔付空间短期有所波动，部分消费者感知保障价值有所减弱。 当前健康险产品转型仍在过程中，传统医疗险面临转型调整，中高端医疗险尚在 培育。整体来看，我们认为人身险板块已转向价值成长，寿险量价双修复带来业 绩弹性，健康险有望伴随中高端医疗险的开发迎来结构升级，保费和新业务价值 有望持续回暖，从而为全年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-banking sector, particularly highlighting opportunities in digital assets and insurance [5]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong government has released the "Policy Declaration 2.0" for digital asset development, aiming to position Hong Kong as a global asset center and enhance its status as an international financial hub [1]. - The approval of the VASP license for Guotai Junan International is expected to open new avenues for brokerage firms in international business, particularly in virtual asset trading [2]. - Regulatory measures are being implemented to ensure reasonable dividend levels in the insurance sector, promoting rational competition among insurance companies [3]. - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve due to proactive policies such as interest rate cuts, which may lead to valuation recovery in the market [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Major indices saw increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.73% during the week [9]. - The non-banking financial index increased by 6.66%, with the securities sector up by 7.62% and insurance by 3.88% [10]. Securities Sector - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 8.33 trillion yuan, with a daily average of 1.39 trillion yuan, marking a 12.61% increase week-on-week [18]. - The IPO underwriting scale for the year reached 351.44 billion yuan, while refinancing underwriting totaled 778.70 billion yuan [18]. Insurance Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between customer interests and insurance company profitability, particularly in the context of dividend policies [3]. - Key insurance companies to watch include China Pacific Insurance, New China Life, Ping An Insurance, China Life, and China Property Insurance [42]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality listed companies in the insurance sector and leading brokerage firms such as China Galaxy, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities [41][42]. - Non-banking institutions are expected to benefit from advancements in digital asset policies, particularly in areas like custody, cross-border payments, and supply chain finance [4][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the automotive and auto parts industry, particularly highlighting the performance of new energy vehicles and key domestic manufacturers [4]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing strong growth driven by policy support and increasing demand for new energy vehicles, with significant year-on-year and month-on-month sales increases [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of intelligent and globalized breakthroughs among quality domestic brands, recommending companies such as Geely, BYD, Li Auto, and Xiaomi [4]. - The report notes a competitive pricing environment in the automotive market, with rising discounts impacting profitability [22]. Summary by Sections 0.1 Passenger Vehicles - The report forecasts a 5.7% year-on-year increase in wholesale passenger vehicle sales for Q2 2025, reaching 6.65 million units, with a 4.6% month-on-month increase [12]. - New energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 3.6 million units in Q2 2025, reflecting a 32.8% year-on-year increase and a 25.4% month-on-month increase [14]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is projected to be 54.1% in Q2 2025, indicating a significant market shift towards electric vehicles [21]. 0.2 Auto Parts - The report highlights a decrease in raw material costs and shipping fees, which is expected to benefit companies with significant export operations [46]. - Key auto parts manufacturers are expected to see improved performance due to rising demand from leading automakers like Xiaomi, Geely, and BYD [48]. - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in lightweight and intelligent components as the industry shifts towards electric and smart vehicles [48]. 0.3 Heavy Trucks - The heavy truck market is recovering, with a 10% year-on-year increase in wholesale sales, driven by local replacement subsidy policies [50]. - Major players like Dongfeng Motor and Beiqi Foton are expected to gain market share, maintaining a stable competitive landscape [50]. - The report notes a decline in heavy truck exports due to increased market entry barriers abroad [51]. 0.4 Motorcycles - The report anticipates a 26.7% year-on-year increase in wholesale sales of medium and large motorcycles, with significant growth in both domestic and export markets [3]. - The focus is on leading domestic motorcycle manufacturers as consumer preferences shift towards higher displacement models [3]. 1 Weekly Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the broader market, with a 2.62% increase in A-share automotive stocks during the week of June 23-27, 2025 [1]. - The report recommends a core investment portfolio including companies like Geely, BYD, and Xiaomi, which are expected to benefit from ongoing market trends [1].

Economic Trends - The U.S. economy has shown signs of weakening, with hard data beginning to align with previous soft data trends, confirming earlier conclusions about a cyclical downturn starting in 2025[2] - The PMI is below 50% and overall economic conditions are deteriorating, indicating stagflation similar to the situation in 1985[4] Currency and Market Performance - The U.S. dollar has depreciated over 10% in the last five months, dropping from a historical percentile of 86% to 57%[2] - Despite the dollar's decline, the U.S. stock market has reached new highs, which was previously underestimated in terms of resilience[2] Historical Context - Historical analysis shows that during similar periods of dollar depreciation (over 11% in five months), the stock market generally experienced gains, particularly in 1985, 2009, and 2010[3] - The current market conditions resemble those of 1985 and 2002, where the stock market did not experience significant declines prior to the dollar's depreciation, affecting subsequent rebounds[4] Future Outlook - The continuation of the current trend of a declining dollar and rising stock market will depend on economic recovery and policy measures, such as interest rate cuts or quantitative easing[4] - The stock market's equity risk premium (ERP) has returned to negative territory, indicating low value for future rebounds compared to historical standards[4] Inflation Concerns - Input inflation is expected to rise due to the dollar's weakness, with predictions that CPI will exceed 3% by the end of the year if monthly increases remain around 0.2%[8] - Recent data quality issues in CPI calculations have raised concerns about the accuracy of inflation metrics, with estimation rates increasing from 10% to 30%[7] Policy Implications - The potential for tax cuts and monetary easing in the second half of the year could significantly impact inflation and market dynamics[6] - The balance of Trump's aggressive policies and their effects on market perceptions will be crucial in determining future market stability[6]

7 月流动性会更松吗？ 2025 年 06 月 29 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：张云杰 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525020002 经济动态跟踪 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyunjie@mszq.com ➢ 6 月流动性进入年内"最松"状态，展望 7 月，流动性有哪些关注点？ 第一，参考近年规律，7 月市场往往会迎来"自发性"宽松。近年来，经济运行 基本遵循一季度"开门红"，随后增长动能渐趋平缓的规律，财政、金融更多靠前 发力。因此在 7 月份，政府债和信贷需求很难构成流动性"冲击"。 第二，央行对于经济的判断，虽然还不具有"紧迫性"，但已开始关注下行风险。 往后看，重点关注关税扰动下的制造业景气波折。经验表明，每当制造业 PMI 连 续 3 个月（或以上）跌入收缩区间，资金面往往会转松，有时甚至会触发总量货 币政策调整。再加上近期美联储降息预期"再起"，国内货币宽松的空间随之打 开。 第三，在工具选择上，货币政策更加注重灵活性和时效度，短期内重启国债买卖 的必要性不高。7 月并非财政"大月"，此外，5 月以来央 ...

计算机周报 20250629 计算机行业 2025Q2 业绩前瞻 2025 年 06 月 29 日 ⚫ 市场回顾 本周（6.23-6.27）沪深 300 指数上涨 1.95%，中小板指数上涨 2.55%，创业板 指数上涨 5.69%，计算机（中信）板块上涨 8.09%。板块个股涨幅前五名分别 为：京天利、京北方、指南针、优博讯、卫宁健康；跌幅前五名分别为：易联 众、柏楚电子、天地数码、川大智胜、任子行。 ⚫ 行业要闻 ⚫ 公司动态 ⚫ 本周观点 AI 应用与金融科技的新时代已经到来，AI agent 引领的软件大革命正处于从 0 到 1 的拐点，AI 应用无疑是贯穿未来的最核心主线，与此同时新一轮金融科技 创新机遇打开帷幕，国产算力与卫星互联网均进入规模落地元年。 考虑各个细分领域以及公司的具体情况，建议关注：1）国内 AI 算力：寒武 纪、海光信息等；2）国内 AI 应用：海康威视、金山办公、科大讯飞、萤石网 络、中科创达、金桥信息、卓易信息、佳发教育等。3）稳定币产业链：中科金 财、金证股份、朗新科技、众安在线、连连数字、中国光大控股、宇信科技、 天阳科技、京北方等；4）跨境支付产业链：新大陆、新国都、拉 ...

➢ 汽油价差收窄，烯烃价差扩大。截至 6 月 27 日，1）炼油：NYMEX 汽油和 取暖油期货结算价和 WTI 期货结算价差分别为 21.39/28.60 美元/桶，周环比变 化-7.79%/-8.67%。2）化工：乙烯/丙烯/甲苯和石脑油价差为 281/231/160 美 元/吨，较上周变化+50.10%/+97.03%/+86.04%；FDY/POY/DTY 价差为 1544/1344/2519 元/吨，较上周变化+14.55%/+18.12%/+6.61%。 ➢ 投资建议：我们推荐以下两条主线：1）油价有底，石油企业业绩确定性高， 叠加高分红特点，估值有望提升，建议关注抗风险能力强且资源量优势强的中国 石油、产量持续增长且桶油成本低的中国海油、高分红一体化公司中国石化；2） 国内鼓励油气增储上产，建议关注产量处于成长期的中曼石油、新天然气。 石化周报 以伊官宣停火，原油暂时回归基本面定价 2025 年 06 月 29 日 ➢ 以伊官宣停火，原油暂时回归基本面定价。6 月 23 日，特朗普在社交媒体 平台上表示，以色列和伊朗将于 24 日 0 时起停火，6 月 24 日，伊朗最高国家安 全委员会声明，宣 ...

电力设备及新能源周报 20250629 小米 YU7 豪华高性能 SUV 发布，1-5 月光伏装机突破 190GW 2025 年 06 月 29 日 ➢ 本周（20250623-20250627）板块行情 电力设备与新能源板块：本周上涨 5.11%，涨跌幅排名第 5，强于上证指数。 本周新能源汽车指数涨幅最大，风力发电指数涨幅最小。新能源汽车指数上涨 6.53%，锂电池指数上涨6.19%，储能指数上涨5.50%，工控自动化上涨5.17%， 太阳能指数上涨 3.20%，核电指数上涨 1.02%，风力发电指数上涨 0.66%。 ➢ 新能源车：小米 YU7 豪华高性能 SUV 发布 2025 年 6 月 26 日，小米首款豪华高性能 SUV——YU7 正式推出标准版、 Pro 版、Max 版。设计上，以 3 倍轮轴比等构建低趴运动姿态，17 ㎡母婴级 材质覆盖， Max 版智能调光天幕静谧性超同级。性能与续航上，全系搭 22000rpm 超级电机，Max 版零百加速 3.23 秒，800V 高压平台使 15 分钟 最长补能 620km，晕车舒缓模式降 51% 晕车率。智能与生态上，四合一域 控制模块集成多系统，搭配 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting specific companies within the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that iron water remains at a high level, with strong cost support. Although there is a long-term downward trend in iron water, the short-term decline is relatively slow. The supply of iron ore has not yet been released, solidifying the cost bottom in the short term [3][4]. - The overall production and inventory levels of steel are at low points year-on-year, with no significant supply-demand contradictions. The profitability of steel companies is expected to recover due to the optimization of crude steel supply and the gradual release of new iron ore production capacity [3][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of June 27, steel prices showed mixed trends, with rebar prices at 3,090 CNY/ton (up 20 CNY), high line prices at 3,300 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY), hot-rolled prices stable at 3,240 CNY/ton, cold-rolled prices down 20 CNY to 3,490 CNY/ton, and medium plate prices down 20 CNY to 3,280 CNY/ton [1][10][11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel varieties reached 8.81 million tons, an increase of 124,800 tons week-on-week. The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 2.1991 million tons, up 0.72 million tons from the previous week [2][3]. Profitability - The report estimates that the gross profit for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel changed by +1 CNY/ton, +5 CNY/ton, and -21 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week. Electric arc furnace steel saw a decrease of 6 CNY/ton in gross profit [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. General steel sector: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel 2. Special steel sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. 3. Pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Suggested to pay attention to high-temperature alloy stocks: Fushun Special Steel [3][4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Baosteel (600019.SH): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.34 CNY, PE at 19, rated as "Buy" - Hualing Steel (000932.SZ): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.29 CNY, PE at 15, rated as "Buy" - Nanjing Steel (600282.SH): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.37 CNY, PE at 11, rated as "Buy" [3].