2025 年 8 月经济数据点评 ➢ 8 月经济数据呈现出"工业缓、投资弱、消费淡"的特征。虽然从增速来看， 经济的新旧动能转换仍具成色。且工业生产（5.2%）和服务业生产指数（5.6%） 表明三季度迄今 GDP 增速仍在 5%附近，但受恶劣天气、关税不确定性、以及 "反内卷"政策的叠加影响，三季度经济下行的逆风集中体现在固定资产投资的 下行风险。如果再考虑到青年人失业率的上升和消费补贴效应的退坡，我们认为 新一轮政策宽松的预期有望持续升温，尤其是随着新一轮政策性金融工具的即将 落地，四季度财政和货币政策的协同将更聚焦于"稳投资"和"促消费"。 ➢ 从 8 月数据来看，三季度经济在投资、消费、以及就业均面临一定的逆风： 8 月经济: 逆风破局的政策信号 2025 年 09 月 15 日 首先，从投资来看，制造业投资作为中国经济新旧动能转换的关键平衡点，其在 7-8 月的负增亟需破局。与此同时，房地产压力尚未根本缓解，叠加高温强降雨 等天气因素扰动，基建投资在 8 月也明显承压。整体来看，三季度投资对经济增 长的影响尤为突出，"稳投资"政策亟待发力。 分析师：陶川 分析师：钟渝梅 研究助理：武朔 执业证号：S0 ...

半导体行业点评 商务部发起反倾销调查，模拟 IC 迎国产替代新机遇 2025 年 09 月 15 日 ➢ 事件：商务部网站 9 月 13 日发布两份公告：1）自 2025 年 9 月 13 日起对 原产于美国的进口相关模拟芯片进行反倾销立案调查；2）自 2025 年 9 月 13 日 起就美国对华集成电路领域相关措施发起反歧视立案调查。 ➢ 商务部对原产于美国的进口模拟芯片发起反倾销调查。商务部决定自 2025 年 9 月 13 日起对原产于美国的进口相关模拟芯片进行反倾销立案调查。本次调 查确定的倾销调查期为 2024 年 1 月 1 日至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，产业损害调 查期为 2022 年 1 月 1 日至 2024 年 12 月 31 日。调查范围内的相关模拟芯片 主要包括使用 40nm 及以上工艺制程的通用接口芯片和栅极驱动芯片，其中通用 接口芯片主要包括 CAN 接口收发器芯片、RS485 接口收发器芯片、I 2C 接口芯 片、数字隔离器芯片等；栅极驱动芯片主要包括低边栅极驱动芯片、半桥/多路栅 极驱动芯片、隔离栅极驱动芯片等。 ➢ 模拟芯片国产化率低，美系厂商长期占据重要份额。根据 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Three-Dimensional Timing Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The model integrates three dimensions—divergence, liquidity, and prosperity—to assess market timing and provide investment recommendations[7][13] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Divergence**: Measures the degree of disagreement among market participants, reflecting the balance between bullish and bearish sentiments 2. **Liquidity**: Tracks the overall market liquidity trend, indicating the availability of funds in the market 3. **Prosperity**: Evaluates the economic and market growth momentum 4. The model combines these three indicators to generate a composite signal for market timing decisions, such as reducing positions during a "divergence up, liquidity down" scenario[7][13] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic and multi-dimensional approach to market timing, offering insights into market trends and potential risks[7][13] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Size Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the performance difference between large-cap and small-cap stocks[39] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Define the market capitalization of stocks 2. Construct portfolios based on size rankings 3. Measure the return spread between large-cap and small-cap portfolios[39] - **Factor Evaluation**: The size factor recorded a positive return of 1.57% in the past week, indicating that large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap stocks during this period[39][43] 2. Factor Name: Beta Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market movements[40] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the beta of individual stocks using historical return data 2. Construct portfolios based on beta rankings 3. Measure the return spread between high-beta and low-beta portfolios[40] - **Factor Evaluation**: The beta factor achieved a return of 1.08% in the past week, suggesting that high-beta stocks outperformed low-beta stocks[40][43] 3. Factor Name: Growth Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies stocks with high growth potential based on financial metrics[40] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use metrics such as revenue growth, earnings growth, and other growth-related indicators 2. Construct portfolios based on growth rankings 3. Measure the return spread between high-growth and low-growth portfolios[40] - **Factor Evaluation**: The growth factor recorded a return of 0.42% in the past week, indicating that high-growth stocks slightly outperformed their low-growth counterparts[40][43] 4. Factor Name: Single-Quarter ROE YoY Difference (ROE_Q_Delta) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the year-over-year change in return on equity (ROE) for a single quarter, reflecting profitability trends[46][47] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the ROE for the current quarter and the same quarter in the previous year 2. Compute the difference between the two values 3. Construct portfolios based on the ROE YoY difference rankings[46][47] - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor performed well across various indices, with a multi-week excess return of 8.23% in the CSI 300 index and 9.38% in the CSI 1000 index[46][47] 5. Factor Name: Revenue Growth YoY (YOY_OR) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the year-over-year growth in revenue, highlighting companies with strong top-line growth[42][44] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the revenue growth rate for the current period compared to the same period in the previous year 2. Construct portfolios based on revenue growth rankings 3. Measure the return spread between high-growth and low-growth portfolios[42][44] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor achieved a weekly excess return of 2.14% and a monthly excess return of 6.48%, demonstrating strong performance in identifying growth opportunities[42][44] --- Backtesting Results of Models and Factors 1. Three-Dimensional Timing Framework - **Annualized Excess Return**: 13.5% since 2018 - **IR**: 1.7 - **Weekly Absolute Return**: 0.9% - **Weekly Excess Return**: -1% relative to equal-weighted industry benchmarks[35][38] 2. Size Factor - **Weekly Return**: 1.57% - **Monthly Return**: 4.70% - **Year-to-Date Return**: -29.21%[43] 3. Beta Factor - **Weekly Return**: 1.08% - **Monthly Return**: 2.99% - **Year-to-Date Return**: 27.49%[43] 4. Growth Factor - **Weekly Return**: 0.42% - **Monthly Return**: 4.11% - **Year-to-Date Return**: -3.28%[43] 5. Single-Quarter ROE YoY Difference (ROE_Q_Delta) - **Weekly Excess Return**: 8.23% (CSI 300), 9.38% (CSI 1000) - **Monthly Excess Return**: 10.17% (CSI 1000)[46][47] 6. Revenue Growth YoY (YOY_OR) - **Weekly Excess Return**: 2.14% - **Monthly Excess Return**: 6.48%[42][44]

计算机周报 20250914 ⚫ 本周观点 ➢ 阿里云业绩超预期验证中国 AI 大基建加速发展，国产 AI Infra 有望迎来价 值重估，当前中国云计算产业已经进入 Capex 正向飞轮，中国云出海或成为从 0 到 1 的重大拐点，建议关注国产算力核心环节： 再次强调国产 AI infra 机遇 2025 年 09 月 14 日 ⚫ 市场回顾 本周（9.8-9.12）沪深 300 指数上涨 1.38%，中小板指数上涨 3.66%，创业板指 数上涨 2.10%，计算机（中信）板块上涨 4.26%。板块个股涨幅前五名分别为： 淳中科技、开普云、佳华科技、中科曙光、方正科技；跌幅前五名分别为：安博 通、航天宏图、朗新集团、金现代、捷顺科技。 ⚫ 行业要闻 ⚫ 公司动态 ➢ 同花顺：9 月 9 日消息，公司于 2025 年 9 月 6 日发布《关于控股股东、持 股 5%以上股东减持股份预披露的公告》，公司控股股东、实际控制人、董事长 易峥先生拟减持公司股票不超过 684,000 股，占公司总股本的 0.13%。鉴于各 种因素，易峥先生决定提前终止本次减持计划。 ➢ 朗新集团：9 月 9 日消息，公司于 2025 年 ...

宏观经济点评 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：邵翔 分析师：钟渝梅 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100524080007 执业证号：S0100525070001 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：shaoxiang@glms.com.cn 邮箱：zhongyumei@glms.com.cn ➢ 美联储迎来降息周，中国资本市场又将演绎怎样的宏观叙事？我们认为在即 将到来的超级周，A 有望巩固回稳向上的行情并再度跑赢美股。只是这次的看点 并非中美货币政策的同步，而更可能来自于中美经贸谈判在新领域的突破，以及 四季度财政货币协同增强的政策信号。 ➢ 事实上，中美股市同频共振的行情自 6 月下旬以来一直在上演。每当美股连 续创下历史新高，A 股也会迎来一波向上突破。我们认为这种现象并非偶然，在 当前中美经贸谈判的战略相持期，经济的韧性比拼的是基本盘，股市的韧性彰显 的则是预期和信心：今年以来 A 股无论是大盘还是科技板块，在每一轮美股创新 高后依然毫不逊色，无疑是其"吸引力与包容性"不断增强的例证。 ➢ 那么这一次美联储降息，中国的货币政策跟不跟？在疲 ...

信用债周策略 20250914 加速化债如何联动地方发展 2025 年 09 月 14 日 ➢ 加速化债如何联动地方发展 国家通过一系列的化解债务措施，协助地方政府不断化解"隐性债务"，并要求按时支付 或积极偿付各类民营企业、中小微企业的拖欠款项。同时，国家还通过一系列的定向支持 政策，对各类产业、民生领域给予政策支持与保障措施，稳步推进区域融合、城市发展、 产业升级，并且对民生与就业的保障也能够与时俱进。 鉴于此，可以关注以下三类区域的城投平台、产投平台、地方产业型国企所发行的债券， 这些区域平台或将受益于上述化债政策与特定领域的政策举措。 第一，近期能够有效降低债务规模与债务率，通过化解地方政府"隐性债务"、"经营性债 务"而减轻负担、重新起航的省市区域，它们属于受益于化债政策的区域，在国家与省级 政府的加速化债下，其区域债务基本面或能得到实质改善，为 2026 年"十五五规划"开 局之年准备了足够的发展空间。例如，内蒙古、宁夏、吉林等区域，以及重庆、广西、天 津等区域，可以密切关注。 第二，属于"十大重点行业"（钢铁、有色、石化、化工、建材、机械、汽车、电力装备、 轻工业、电子信息制造业）所覆盖的地市区 ...

汽车和汽车零部件行业周报 20250914 机器人 Q4 迎重磅催化 看好 T 链核心主线 2025 年 09 月 14 日 ➢ 周度数据：2025 年 9 月第 1 周（9.1-9.7）乘用车销量 36.8 万辆，同比- 9.5%，环比-29.8%；新能源乘用车销量 22.1 万辆，同比+3.1%，环比-23.6%； 新能源渗透率 60.2%，环比+4.8pct。 ➢ 本周行情：汽车板块本周表现强于市场。本周（9 月 8 日-9 月 12 日）A 股 汽车板块上涨 3.9%，在申万子行业中排名第 13 位，表现强于沪深 300（2.9%）。 细分板块中，汽车零部件、汽车服务、商用载货车、摩托车及其他、商用载客车 分别上涨 6.7%、4.8%、3.0%、3.0%、0.8%，乘用车下跌 0.8%。 ➢ 本周观点：本月建议关注核心组合【吉利汽车、小鹏汽车、理想汽车、比亚 迪、小米集团、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力】。 ➢ 机器人板块 Q4 迎来重磅催化 T 链将成为核心主线。特斯拉预计将于 10 月 下旬举办 2025Q3 业绩会、11 月 6 日举办 2025 年股东大会，Optimus V3 ...

汽车行业系列深度十一 2025Q2：盈利分化加剧 优质赛道韧性突显 2025 年 09 月 14 日 ➢ 乘用车：分化加剧 规模效应+高端化驱动盈利。销量端：2025Q2 乘用车 批发销量合计 711.1 万辆，同比+13.0%，环比+11.8%；新能源乘用车批发销 量 362.9 万辆，同比+33.9%，环比+26.3%；出口 140.1 万辆，同比+13.9%， 环比+25.1%；营收端：受益自主份额提升，高端化驱动，样本企业营收 6,739.6 亿元，同比+13.8%，环比+20.2%，赛力斯、蔚来、零跑、长城环比表现亮眼； 毛利端：2025Q2 乘用车企毛利率表现分化，样本车企毛利率 15.0%，同比 -0.7pct，环比-0.8pct，规模效应释放程度、产品结构优化能力为毛利率核心影 响因素，赛力斯、长安、小鹏、零跑毛利率环比提升；利润端：2025Q2 整体呈 现去库存压力增大导致车企折扣力度加大，挤压盈利空间，长城汽车、赛力斯受 益产品结构向好，通过"技术溢价+精准细分市场定位"获得超额收益。 ➢ 零部件：营收持续增长 智能化盈利表现亮眼。营收端，2025Q2 零部件板 块营收 2,664.2 亿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The inflation in the US is in line with expectations, and the trading patterns of short - and long - term bonds are differentiated. The market expects a 25bp interest rate cut in the September meeting and three rate cuts throughout the year. In the European and Japanese markets, Japanese bonds are stable, while German bonds rise due to hawkish signals. In other major asset classes, global stock indices generally rise except for Russia, cryptocurrencies and precious metals lead the rally in commodities, and there are significant differences in the performance of different currencies against the RMB [4][22][23]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This Week's Overseas Macro - Interest Rate Review 3.1.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Review - **Employment**: The US employment market shows further signs of weakness. The number of initial jobless claims increases by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021, higher than the market expectation of 235,000 [1][12]. - **Inflation**: The US PPI unexpectedly drops month - on - month in August, with service costs falling by 0.2%. The core CPI remains high, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3% and a year - on - year of 3.1% in August. The overall CPI rises more than expected, with a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year of 2.9% in August [2][13]. - **Business Index**: The US EIA crude oil inventory data shows an unexpected increase. The inventory increases by 3.939 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels, against the market expectation of a 1.9 - million - barrel decrease [3][14]. 3.1.2 Review of Major Overseas Market Interest Rates - **US**: From September 5th to September 12th, 2025, the 1 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bond rates fluctuate by +1bp and - 4bp to 3.66% and 4.06% respectively. The long - and short - term trading patterns are differentiated. The long - term is traded around the recession narrative, and the short - term is traded around the expectation of the number and amplitude of interest rate cuts. The 3 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year US Treasury auctions have strong, strong, and relatively stable demand respectively [4][15][16]. - **Europe and Japan**: Japanese bonds are stable, with the 1 - year and 10 - year rates fluctuating by +0.9bp and +0.4bp to 0.70% and 1.59% respectively. German bonds rise due to hawkish signals from the European Central Bank, with the 2 - year and 10 - year rates fluctuating by +6.00bp and - 1.00bp to 2.02% and 2.70% respectively [22]. 3.2 Review of Other Major Asset Classes - **Equities**: Global major stock indices generally rise, except for the Russian market. South Korea (+5.94%), Japan (+4.07%), and Hong Kong (+3.82%) perform strongly, while Russia (-2.13%) is the only market with negative growth [23]. - **Commodities**: Cryptocurrencies and precious metals lead the rally. Bitcoin rises by 4.87%, London silver by 3.72%, and London gold by 1.57%. Some industrial products are under pressure, such as the pig index, rebar, coke, etc. [24]. - **Foreign Exchange**: European and Japanese currencies rise against the RMB, while the US dollar and most Asian currencies show small fluctuations. The Russian ruble drops significantly by 4.04% against the RMB [25]. 3.3 Market Tracking - **Government Bond Interest Rates**: The report shows the interest rate fluctuations of 1 - year and 10 - year government bonds in major economies such as the US, Japan, Germany, etc. [33]. - **Stock Indices**: It presents the weekly and historical percentile changes of major global stock indices, showing that most markets are at relatively high historical levels [35]. - **Commodities**: It shows the price changes of major commodities and their historical percentile levels, indicating significant differentiation in performance [38]. - **Foreign Exchange**: It displays the exchange rate changes of major global currencies against the RMB and their historical percentile levels [40]. - **Economic Data Panels**: It includes economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, covering GDP, inflation, employment, and business sentiment indices [42][49][54].

电力设备及新能源周报 20250914 工信部强调光伏行业自律，宁德时代发布神行 Pro 电池 2025 年 09 月 14 日 ➢ 本周（20250908-20250912）板块行情 电力设备与新能源板块：本周上涨 0.53%，涨跌幅排名第 22，弱于上证指数。沪指收于 3870.6 点，上涨 58.08 点，涨幅 1.52%，成交 48753.94 亿元；深成指收于 12924.13 点， 上涨 333.57 点，涨幅 2.65%，成交 65986.26 亿元；创业板收于 3020.42 点，上涨 62.24 点，涨幅 2.10%，成交 32231.21 亿元；电气设备收于 9107.28 点，上涨 48.29 点，涨幅 0.53%，弱于上证指数。 ➢ 本周关注：宁德时代，科达利，大金重工，海力风电，德业股份，良信股份，盛弘股 份，厦钨新能，许继电气，明阳电气等。 ➢ 新能源车：宁德时代发布搭载 NP3.0 电池安全技术的神行 Pro 电池 9 月 7 日，宁德时代磷酸铁锂动力电池产品——神行 Pro 发布，该电池分为长寿命版和超 充版，主要面向欧洲市场，搭载全球电池领域最高安全等级的 NP3.0 技术平 ...