基金分析报告 周期成长基金池 202511：今年实现高超额 2025 年 11 月 18 日 ➢ 周期成长投资策略是在周期行业中挖掘能够脱离行业周期性，实现自身持续 成长的个股。在一些渗透率已经较高、且行业增长空间相对较小的偏周期行业中， 部分公司由于其具有强竞争优势和议价能力、好商业模式和战略布局、公司治理 和技术进步等优势，使得公司的业绩逐渐脱离了行业的周期性，实现较为稳定的 增长。当前选出的周期成长赛道主要分散在基础化工、机械、计算机等行业。 ➢ 周期成长型基金池：受市场风格切换影响较为明显。2014 年 2 月 7 日至 2025 年 11 月 11 日，基金池年化收益率为 17.46%，相对于偏股基金指数年化 超额收益为 7.63%，年化波动为 24.99%，年化夏普为 0.70，整体弹性较高。今 年以来周期成长组合实现 14.69%的超额收益。 ➢ 行业配置、选股和动态均贡献了较高的超额收益。基金池整体能力水平均衡， 在最新一期显著提升了消费和制造板块的占比，减少了对医药和 TMT 板块的配 置。 ➢ 周期成长型基金定义与精选。主要以持仓行业和个股的属性进行周期成长型 基金的定义，选择近一年基金重 ...

京东健康（6618.HK）2025 年三季报点评 营收增长逐季攀升，医保与 AI 双轮驱动增长 2025 年 11 月 18 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年第三季度，京东健康实现营业收入 171.2 亿元，较去年同期 133 亿元同比增长 28.7%，增速较第二季度的 23.7%进一步加快。公司经营盈利 为 12.43 亿元，同比大幅增长 125.3%；非国际财务报告准则（Non-IFRS）经 营盈利为 13.78 亿元，同比增长 59.9%；非国际财务报告准则（Non-IFRS）盈 利为 19.02 亿元，同比增长 42.4%，盈利增长动能持续强化。 资料来源：Wind，民生证券研究院预测；（注：股价为2025年11月17日收盘价，汇率1HKD=0.9143RMB） 推荐 首次评级 当前价格： 69.40 港元 [Table_Author] 分析师 孔蓉 执业证书： S0100525110001 邮箱： kongrong@glms.com.cn 分析师 曹睿 执业证书： S0100525100002 邮箱： caorui@glms.com.cn 运营数据：2025 年第三季度期内，京东健康持续推进医保支付扩面与 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for JD Group [4][6]. Core Insights - JD Group's Q3 2025 revenue reached 299.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1]. - The company's retail segment achieved revenue of 250.6 billion RMB, growing 11.4% year-on-year, with operating profit rising 27.6% to 14.8 billion RMB [2]. - New business, including food delivery, saw a significant revenue increase of 214% year-on-year, indicating strong growth potential [3]. - JD Logistics reported revenue of 55.1 billion RMB, up 24.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.02 billion RMB [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 5.8 billion RMB, a decline of 56% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.9%, down 3.2 percentage points [1]. - The report forecasts revenues for 2025-2027 to be 1,339.9 billion RMB, 1,463.1 billion RMB, and 1,586.5 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 15.6%, 9.2%, and 8.4% respectively [4][5]. Business Segments - JD Retail's user base surpassed 700 million, with significant growth in shopping frequency during the "11.11" shopping festival, where the number of ordering users increased by 40% and order volume by nearly 60% [2]. - The logistics segment is expanding internationally, with new services launched in Saudi Arabia and the U.S., enhancing JD's integrated supply chain capabilities [3]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 for 2025, 8 for 2026, and 6 for 2027 [4][5].

"十五五"规划系列报告（九） 提升消费率: 亚洲经济体的得与失 2025 年 11 月 18 日 ➢ 当前我国经济发展正迎来迈向中等发达水平的关键一跃，提升居民消费的重 要性日益凸显，"居民消费率明显提高"战略目标的提出恰逢其时。然而纵观全球 发展经验，欧美模式具有不同的储蓄文化、家庭观念和社会保障体系，相较之下， 与我们文化同源、发展路径相似的亚洲经济体，更值得深入探究。故此，与其远 眺欧美寻找"灵丹妙药"，不如近观亚洲主要经济体的实践经验。 ➢ 聚焦于亚洲各经济体的发展轨迹，揭示了一个深刻现象：经济发展水平未必 与消费发展速度相适配。正是基于这一"同源异流"的发现，我们可将亚洲经济 体按照人均 GDP 与消费率水平归纳为四种典型范式： ➢ 乐消费型（对应人均 GDP 偏高、消费率偏高的地区，如中国香港、日本）： 消费市场高度发达，消费结构优化，居民消费与经济发展水平相匹配。不过同是 "乐消费型"经济体，中国香港与日本的"解题思路"大相径庭—— [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 陶川 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0100524060005 | | | 邮箱： | taoch ...

信用债周策略 20251117 地方盘活存量资产，稳固行业发展势头 2025 年 11 月 17 日 ➢ 扩内需政策及行业供需关系改善，部分行业价格出现了稳定增长趋势 2025 年 10 月份，随着扩内需等政策措施持续显效，叠加国庆、中秋长假带动， CPI 环比上涨 0.2%，同比上涨 0.2%；扣除食品和能源价格的核心 CPI 同比上涨 1.2%，涨幅连续第 6 个月扩大。受国内部分行业供需关系改善、国际大宗商品价 格传导等因素影响，PPI 环比由上月持平转为上涨 0.1%，为年内首次上涨；同比 下降 2.1%，降幅比上月收窄 0.2 个百分点，连续第 3 个月收窄。 各行业价格正在反复振荡中呈现有所回升趋势，部分行业出厂价格开始出现持续 修复迹象，例如煤炭、光伏、水泥、计算机、锂离子电池、集成电路等，这与近 期国家实施"反内卷"政策有关，也与各行业供需关系持续改善有关。同时，核 心 CPI 出现持续增长现象，目前已涨至 1.2%，且预计未来仍然存在进一步提升 的空间；此趋势若能延续至 2026 年，则 CPI 与 PPI 存在大幅度改善的可能性。 ➢ 地方政府正在积极盘活存量资产，拓展新的增量发展空间 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The market is mainly trading on the decline in interest rate cut expectations despite the reopening of the US federal government. Although short - term US bonds may be pressured by interest rate cut expectations, the long - term interest rate cut path is clear, and the correction window is worth left - hand side layout [2][3] - Different types of assets in the global market show significant structural differentiation, with funds rebalancing between regions and styles [23][24] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Overseas Macroeconomic Interest Rate Review 1.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Review - US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 6.413 million barrels this week, far exceeding market expectations. The current supply - demand pattern is short - term loose, which is expected to suppress the rebound of oil prices. If demand remains weak, the inventory accumulation trend may continue and put pressure on the December market [10] - ADP's latest weekly employment trend estimate shows that US companies cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 25, indicating a slowdown in autumn recruitment. The labor market is moving from weak growth to a net loss [10] 1.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review - **US**: The US federal government reopened, but the market mainly traded on the decline in interest rate cut expectations. FOMC members' hawkish signals and the uncertainty of data after the government's reopening led to a decline in the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut from 67% to 44%. The 10 - year Treasury yield reached 4.14%, and the Nasdaq index fell significantly. In the long run, the interest rate cut path is clear [2][11][12] - **Auction Results**: The 3 - year US note auction was stable and strong; the 10 - year US note auction was slightly weak; the 30 - year US Treasury auction was weak [14] - **Europe and Japan**: Japanese bond short - term yields were basically flat, while medium - and long - term yields increased significantly, and the yield curve steepened. German bond yields rose overall, and the 10 - year German Treasury yield reached 2.7%, the highest since early October [4][22] 2. Other Major Asset Reviews - **Equity**: European and Asian emerging markets were relatively strong. The A - share Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly, the Hang Seng Index rose, the Nasdaq fell, and European stock markets such as the UK, Germany, and France performed well. Emerging markets like India, Vietnam, and South Korea also rose, showing a rebalancing of funds [23] - **Commodity**: Precious metals led the rise, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products rose slightly, while black metals and Bitcoin weakened. Gold and silver rose by 1.9% and 6.8% respectively, and Bitcoin fell by 8.5% [24] - **Foreign Exchange**: The Swiss franc led the rise, and the Japanese yen fell significantly. The US dollar, Hong Kong dollar, and other currencies also showed different trends [25] 3. Market Tracking - The report provides multiple charts, including the rise and fall of global major economies' Treasury bond interest rates, the rise and fall of global major stock indexes, the rise and fall of major commodities, and the rise and fall of global major foreign exchange rates, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [32][35][37][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the motorcycle industry, particularly recommending companies such as Chuanfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle [18]. Core Insights - The motorcycle industry is experiencing steady growth in the mid-to-large displacement segment, with a notable increase in exports. The report highlights the robust performance of leading companies in this sector, driven by new model launches and an expanding market [4][18]. - The report indicates that the overall sales of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles are expected to resonate positively in both domestic and international markets, supported by the efforts of key players like Chuanfeng Power and Longxin General [5][18]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In October 2025, the sales of motorcycles above 250cc reached 61,000 units, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.2% but a significant month-on-month drop of 29.7%. Cumulatively, from January to October, sales totaled 822,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.7% [3]. - The sales of motorcycles above 125cc in October were 603,000 units, up 1.0% year-on-year but down 19.7% month-on-month, with growth primarily from the 125-150cc and 500-800cc segments [4]. Structural Analysis - The report notes strong growth in the 500cc+ displacement models, with October sales of 13,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33.2%. Cumulative sales from January to October reached 161,000 units, up 128.7% year-on-year [5]. - The 250cc to 400cc segment saw a decline in October sales, with 36,000 units sold, down 8.5% year-on-year and 31.5% month-on-month, while the 400cc to 500cc segment experienced a slight decrease of 7.2% year-on-year [5]. Market Dynamics - The top three companies in the 250cc+ segment for October were Chuanfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle, with a combined market share of 43.7%. Chuanfeng Power maintained a leading position with a market share of 18.8% [6][8]. - Longxin General's sales in October were 11,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 62.7%, while Qianjiang Motorcycle's sales were 4,000 units, down 47.9% year-on-year [8][15]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the mid-to-large displacement motorcycle market, driven by new model launches and an expanding consumer base. The focus will be on enhancing domestic sales and increasing export volumes, particularly for Chuanfeng Power and Longxin General [12][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new product introductions and brand positioning in capturing market share and driving future sales growth [14][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings, with a target price based on adjusted PE ratios of 21X for 2025, 18X for 2026, and 16X for 2027 [5]. Core Insights - Tencent's overall performance in Q3 2025 exceeded expectations, with a revenue growth of 15% year-on-year and a gross profit increase of 22%, driven primarily by strong growth in gaming and advertising revenues [1][2]. - The company's strategic investments in AI are beginning to yield results, enhancing efficiency across various business scenarios, including targeted advertising and user engagement in gaming [2]. - The report highlights the robust performance of Tencent's value-added services, particularly in overseas gaming, which saw a 43% year-on-year revenue increase [3]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In Q3 2025, Tencent's revenue reached 750.2 billion RMB, with Non-IFRS net profit also increasing by 18% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates [1][5]. Value-Added Services - Revenue from value-added services grew by 16% to 959 billion RMB, with domestic game revenue contributing significantly, particularly from long-standing titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [3]. Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue rose by 21% to 362 billion RMB, driven by increased user engagement and improvements in advertising effectiveness due to AI [4]. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue increased by 10% to 582 billion RMB, with notable growth in cloud services and commercial payment activities [5]. Financial Forecast - The report projects revenues of 750.2 billion RMB for 2025, 835.3 billion RMB for 2026, and 915.5 billion RMB for 2027, with corresponding Non-IFRS net profits of 260.3 billion RMB, 300.7 billion RMB, and 335.3 billion RMB respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company shows strong sales performance in October, with fuel motorcycle sales reaching 17,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [1]. - The company is experiencing significant growth in its electric motorcycle segment, with sales of 28,000 units in October, representing a year-on-year increase of 141% [2]. - The four-wheeled beach vehicle exports also performed well, with sales of 19,000 units in October, up 43.3% year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Two-Wheeled Vehicles - The company’s 250cc+ motorcycle sales in October reached 11,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 27.8% [2]. - Cumulative sales from January to October for 250cc+ motorcycles reached 166,000 units, up 35.6% year-on-year, with market share increasing to 20.2% [2]. - The company’s electric motorcycle brand, Jike, saw sales of 253,000 units from January to October, a significant year-on-year increase [2]. Four-Wheeled Vehicles - The company is focusing on the U.S. market, with October sales of four-wheeled beach vehicles reaching 19,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 43.3% [3]. - Cumulative sales from January to October for four-wheeled vehicles reached 151,000 units, up 9.7% year-on-year [3]. - The company is expected to maintain its leading market share in Europe and continue expanding in the U.S. market [3]. Product Launches - At the 2025 Milan Show, the company unveiled its new flagship ADV motorcycle, featuring a 946cc engine and advanced electronic configurations [4]. - The performance flagship prototype, V4 SR-RR, was also showcased, featuring a 997cc V4 engine with over 210 horsepower [4]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 19.91 billion, 24.51 billion, and 29.50 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 1.86 billion, 2.38 billion, and 2.93 billion yuan [5][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 12.19, 15.61, and 19.21 yuan for the same years [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The gap between domestic and overseas large models in AI is rapidly narrowing, with domestic AI ecosystems represented by Tencent and Alibaba showing significant development. This suggests a potential turning point for accelerated growth in domestic AI [3][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on core targets in domestic computing power and AI agents, highlighting key companies in cloud computing, chip design, and AI applications [3][22]. Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of November 10-14, the CSI 300 index fell by 1.08%, the SME index decreased by 1.71%, and the ChiNext index dropped by 3.01%. The computer sector (CITIC) saw a decline of 3.72% [30]. Industry News - AMD's CEO predicts that the AI data center market will exceed $1 trillion by 2030, growing from approximately $200 billion currently, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 40% [23]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice to accelerate the construction of pilot platforms in the manufacturing sector, aiming to enhance innovation and technology transfer [24]. Company News - Lingzhi Software plans to acquire 100% of Kaimiride (Suzhou) Information Technology Co., Ltd. through a share issuance and cash payment, with a share price set at 15.31 yuan [27]. - Zhengyuan Wisdom's board approved a share repurchase plan, intending to reduce up to 2,842,000 shares within six months [29]. Weekly Insights - Domestic large models like MiniMax and DeepSeek are now among the top global models, with MiniMax M2 achieving a daily token usage surpassing 50 billion, indicating strong market acceptance [9][12]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape in AI, with Tencent and Alibaba intensifying their efforts in AI applications, suggesting an imminent phase of heightened competition in the domestic AI market [20][22].