Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the electric and new energy sectors, including Ningde Times, Keda Li, and others, indicating strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [7][8]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the electric and new energy sector is under pressure, but there was a sequential improvement in profitability in Q2 2025. The sector achieved a total revenue of 16,755.54 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%, with a net profit of 861.47 billion yuan, up 16.04% year-on-year [3][12]. - The new energy vehicle sector shows a positive trend, with H1 2025 revenue reaching 6,747.57 billion yuan, a 10.67% increase year-on-year, although net profit decreased by 41.93% [4][16]. - The renewable energy generation sector faced challenges, with H1 2025 revenue of 9,646.02 billion yuan, down 1.96% year-on-year, and a net profit of 360.66 billion yuan, down 4.60% [66]. Summary by Sections Electric and New Energy Sector Overview - The sector's overall revenue in H1 2025 was 16,755.54 billion yuan, with a net profit of 861.47 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.49% and 16.04% respectively. Q2 2025 saw a revenue of 9,206.13 billion yuan, a 5.22% increase year-on-year and a 21.95% increase quarter-on-quarter [3][12][14]. New Energy Vehicle Sector - The new energy vehicle sector reported a revenue of 6,747.57 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 10.67% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 580.45 billion yuan, down 41.93%. In Q2 2025, revenue was 3,578.87 billion yuan, up 10.20% year-on-year, and net profit was 313.93 billion yuan, up 31.44% [4][16][23]. Renewable Energy Generation Sector - The renewable energy generation sector's revenue in H1 2025 was 9,646.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.96% year-on-year, with a net profit of 360.66 billion yuan, down 4.60%. The average gross margin for the sector was 14.74% [66][69]. Key Companies and Financial Projections - Key companies such as Ningde Times and Keda Li are projected to have strong earnings growth, with EPS estimates for 2025E at 14.96 yuan and 6.77 yuan respectively, indicating a favorable PE ratio [7][8].

2025 年 8 月物价点评 8 月通胀: 冷暖的微妙信号 2025 年 09 月 10 日 分析师：陶川 分析师：钟渝梅 研究助理：武朔 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525070001 执业证号：S0100125070003 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：zhongyumei@glms.com.cn 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn ➢ 事件：9 月 10 日，国家统计局公布 8 月通胀数据。8 月，中国 PPI 同比增 速为-2.9%，较上月上升 0.7 个百分点；CPI 同比增速为-0.4%，较上月下降 0.4 个百分点。 ➢ 8 月通胀形势可谓"冷暖不均"，这不仅体现在 CPI 与 PPI 之间的分化，更 是渗透至 CPI 和 PPI 各自的内部结构之中。与 CPI 同比的下行不同，核心 CPI 延续稳中有升态势，彰显一定韧性；而 PPI 则在上游行业的引领下初步企稳，反 映出"反内卷"背景下，前期上游企业限产举措正在奏效。 [Table_Author] 不过，在不考虑低基数与季节性的情况下，PPI 的回升根基尚不牢固。正如昨日 宁德时 ...

有色金属行业 2025H1 总结 25H1 表现亮眼，何妨吟啸且徐行 2025 年 09 月 10 日 ➢ 2025 年以来有色板块整体情况。从二级市场来看，2025 年至今，有色金属 上涨 67.57%，其中 2025Q2 上涨 10.16%，位列第 8。2025 年以来有色金属板 块整体涨幅为 67.57%，板块排第 2，其中 2025Q2 有色金属上涨 10.16%，板 块排名第 8；2025 年 H1，有色金属上涨 27.65%，板块排名第 1。 ➢ 细分板块来看：2025H1 盈利亮眼，贵金属表现最好。①贵金属：2025H1 黄金价格同比+39.8%，贵金属板块归母净利润同比+64.7%；2025Q2 归母净利 润 57.85 亿元，同比、环比分别增长 75.62%和 48.44%。②工业金属：2025H1 铝/铜/锌价分别同比增长 2.27%/4.02%/4.85%，归母净利分别同比变化 +41.0%/-0.4%/+25.7%。③能源金属：2025H1 电池级碳酸锂和氢氧化锂同比 下跌 32.0%和 27.7%；硫酸钴和四氧化三钴价格分别同比增长 26.0%和 26.7%。 2025H1 锂板块归 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry, focusing on undervalued stocks with performance potential and improving industry conditions [4]. Core Insights - The basic chemical sector showed a revenue growth of +3.23% year-on-year in H1 2025, an increase of 4.45 percentage points compared to the previous year. However, net profit decreased by -2.00%, improving by 2.66 percentage points year-on-year [1][10]. - In Q2 2025, revenue growth was +0.48%, down by 2.87 percentage points year-on-year and down 5.94% quarter-on-quarter. Net profit saw a decline of -6.50% year-on-year, down 7.57 percentage points year-on-year and down 9.66% quarter-on-quarter [1][11]. - A total of 282 companies in the sector achieved positive growth in net profit after deducting non-recurring items, while 120 companies reported losses [1][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Financial Data Review for H1 2025 - The basic chemical sector's revenue growth rate for H1 2025 was +3.23%, with a net profit growth rate of -2.00%. The annualized return on equity (ROE) was 3.25%, down by 0.07 percentage points year-on-year, and the gross margin was 17.77%, down by 0.17 percentage points year-on-year [10][11]. - In Q2 2025, the sector's revenue growth was +0.48%, with a net profit growth rate of -6.50%. The gross margin for Q2 was 16.70%, down by 0.85 percentage points year-on-year [11]. 2. Positive Outlook on Specific Sub-sectors - The report highlights several sub-sectors with strong investment potential: - **Polyester Filament**: The industry is expected to see improved supply-demand balance as new capacity comes online, with leading companies like Tongkun Co., New Fengming, and Hengyi Petrochemical recommended [2]. - **Refrigerants**: With supply constraints and stable demand, companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. are expected to maintain high growth [2]. - **TDI**: The industry is experiencing improved profitability due to supply tightness, with recommendations for Wanhua Chemical and Cangzhou Dahua [2]. - **Silicone**: After a period of price pressure, the sector is expected to recover, with companies like Xin'an Chemical, Xingfa Group, and Hesheng Silicon Industry highlighted [2]. - **Compound Fertilizers**: The sector is projected to benefit from long-term demand growth and improved industry concentration, with New Yangfeng, Yuntu Holdings, and Stanley recommended [2]. - **Pesticides**: The sector has shown significant revenue and profit improvement, with companies like Yangnong Chemical and Runfeng Co. recommended [2].

固收专题 地方债发行新特征及增值税地方债选择 2025 年 09 月 09 日 ➢ 2025 年以来地方债发行出现的新特征：（1）发行期限进一步拉长，自审自 发地区发债占比提升。2025 年以来地方债发行期限较 2024 年进一步拉长，主 要是超长久期地方债供给明显增多，占比从 42.71%提高至 48.63%。不同期限 地方债供给的变化也影响了二级市场各期限地方债的流动性，随着置换债的发 行，2024 年底开始 15Y、20Y、30Y 地方债的换手率明显抬升，尤其是 30Y 的 月度换手率持续维持在10%以上。自审自发地区发债占比进一步提升至61.04%， 一方面可能受自审自发地区的项目审批流程更为简单，发债速度偏快影响，另一 方面自审自发地区均为经济大省，说明地方债的额度分配向项目准备充分、投资 效率较高的地区倾斜，更多的支持经济大省重大项目建设。（2）一般债与专项债、 提还债与非提还债差异定价特征更为明显。历史上大多数可对比样本的一般债与 专项债、提还债与非提还债都维持了相同的票面利率，而 2025 年一般债与专项 债定价差异更为明显，票面利率不同的占比高达 47.41%，这其中 50%的专项债 票面会 ...

生物柴油行业周报（20250901-20250907） SAF 本周实现高位继续上涨，单吨到岸价突破 2700 美元 2025 年 09 月 09 日 ➢ 本周（20250901-20250907）SAF 本周实现高位继续上涨。本周四，外盘 SAF 到岸价报 2746.53 美元/吨，环比上周上涨 5.61%；外盘 HVO 离岸价报 2353.75 美元/吨，环比上周上涨 1.44%。欧洲 Ucome 离岸价报 1285.99 欧元 /吨，环比上周四下跌 0.70%，涨跌幅度为-9.07 欧元/吨；中国 Ucome 离岸价 报 1180.45 美元/吨，环比上周上涨 0.88%，涨跌幅度为+10.25 美元/吨；东南 亚生物柴油离岸价报 1168.16 美元/吨，环比上周下跌 0.69%，涨跌幅度为-8.09 美元/吨。从国内价差端来看，若考虑一个月地沟油库存，本周四，国内出口欧洲 生物柴油价差为 2920 元/吨，周度环比变动幅度为-80 元/吨。 ➢ 本周（20250901-20250907）国内潲水油与地沟油价格高位上涨。本周四， 国内潲水油平均报价为 7220 元/吨，较上周环比变化幅度为+100 元 ...

"驭风"系列报告 风电齿轮箱行业简析 2025 年 09 月 09 日 ➢ 需求侧：国内海陆招标两旺，陆风价格趋稳。2024 年，全国风机累计公开 招标容量约 164.1GW、同比增长 90%，其中陆风公开招标容量 152.8GW、同 比增长 97%，海风公开招标容量 11.3GW、同比增长 27%。2025 年 1-6 月，全 国风机新增公开招标 71.9GW、同比增长 8.8%，其中陆风新增招标 66.9GW、 海风新增招标 5.0GW。从价格端来看，2025 年 6 月，全市场风电整机商风电机 组投标均价为 1616 元/千瓦，同比增长约 10%。 | 分析师 | 邓永康 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0100521100006 | | | 邮箱： | dengyongkang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 王一如 | | 执业证书： S0100523050004 | | | 邮箱： | wangyiru_yj@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 林誉韬 | | 执业证书： S0100524070001 | | | 邮箱： | linyutao@glms.com ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on companies with production elasticity and cost advantages, specifically highlighting藏格矿业, 中矿资源, 永兴材料, 盐湖股份, and 雅化集团 as key investment targets [3][66]. Core Insights - The Australian lithium market is experiencing a supply adjustment with four major mines currently offline, leading to a total production capacity reduction of approximately 750,000 tons (94,000 tons LCE), which constitutes 14% of Australia's total lithium production capacity [3][13]. - The report anticipates that the lithium price has reached a bottom, and the new supply adjustments may significantly improve the industry landscape, potentially stimulating upward price elasticity [3][13]. - The report indicates that apart from Greenbushes and Pilgangoora, most Australian mines are facing substantial operational pressures, with cash costs increasing for several projects [2][10]. Summary by Sections Australian Mining Overview - As of Q2 2025, Australian lithium concentrate production is estimated at approximately 1.13 million tons, a 23% increase quarter-on-quarter, but the supply growth is below expectations [1][8]. - The production increases are primarily driven by the successful ramp-up of the Pilgangoora P1000 project and improved output from Wodgina [1][8]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - Greenbushes reported a cash cost of AUD 366 per ton, up 7% quarter-on-quarter, while Pilgangoora's cash cost decreased by 10% to AUD 619 per ton due to increased production [2][10]. - Marion's cash cost rose to AUD 717 per ton, while Wodgina's cash cost decreased to AUD 641 per ton, reflecting operational improvements [2][10]. Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The report predicts that by 2025, Australian lithium production will be approximately 448,000 tons LCE, a 4% decrease year-on-year, with expectations of further production increases in 2026 and 2027 [3][14]. - The report emphasizes that the operational pressures on existing mines may lead to further production cuts, particularly under current lithium price conditions [3][13]. Key Company Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with藏格矿业 projected to have an EPS of 1.64 in 2024 and a PE of 34, while中矿资源 is expected to have an EPS of 1.05 and a PE of 42 [4][66]. -雅化集团, 永兴材料, and 盐湖股份 are also highlighted with favorable EPS and PE ratios, indicating strong investment potential [4][66].

流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题 国债买卖重启？ 2025 年 09 月 08 日 ➢ 货币政策与流动性观点 9 月 3 日财政部与中国人民银行联合工作组召开第二次组长会议召开，较去年同 期会议召开提前一个月，与上次会议主要强调"央行国债买卖"不同，本次会议 把财政放在了更重要的位置以及更为强调财政与央行的协同配合，包括在"金融 市场运行、政府债券发行管理、央行国债买卖操作和完善离岸人民币国债发行机 制等"方面的协同。总体来看，随着财政政策与货币政策的协同不断加强，有利 于央行进行流动性管理，即使年内有增量债券供给可能也不会给债市造成太大压 力，当然本次也确实提到了国债买卖操作，暂停国债买卖后央行表里的国债受到 期影响规模逐步下降（对中央政府债权科目规模从最高的 2.88 万亿元下降至 2.29 万亿元），被动回笼长期流动性接近 6000 亿元，略高于一次 25bp 降准释 放的长期流动性，当政府债券市场"持续供不应求"现象改变时，国债买卖操作 有望重启，当前 10Y 国债利率已经从低位上行接近 20bp，也为央行重启国债买 卖留有空间。 9 月 1 日-9 月 5 日央行惯例回笼部分流动性，但资金利率维持低位，资 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The comprehensive quantitative model remains bearish overall. The intensity of the current "watch stocks, trade bonds" market since late July exceeds that of other periods in the past three years, and it may become a new trend rather than a short - term shock [1][2][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Performance 3.1.1 Secondary Market Trends This week, the yield curve fluctuated within a narrow range. The medium - and short - term interest rates of Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds declined. The short - term interest rates of Agricultural Development Bank bonds and Export - Import Bank bonds declined significantly. The 30 - year Treasury bond yield declined by the largest margin of - 2.5BP, and the yield of China Development Bank bonds around the 6 - year mark declined by the largest margin of - 2.4BP [1][5]. 3.1.2 Primary Market Trends This week, 5 Treasury bonds, 8 China Development Bank bonds, 6 Agricultural Development Bank bonds, and 1 Export - Import Bank bond were issued. Among Treasury bonds, the 1 - month 25 Discount Treasury Bond 54 had a high full - subscription multiple of 3.08 times. Among policy - financial bonds, the 7 - year 25 China Development Bank Clean - issued Bond 04 had a high full - subscription multiple of 5.51 times. The overall full - subscription multiples of Agricultural Development Bank bonds and Export - Import Bank bonds were relatively low [14]. 3.2 Latest Results of Each Calculation Model The comprehensive signal model has been bearish since July 10, 2025. As of September 5, the long - short ratio model and the fund duration model are bullish, while the rest are bearish. This week, the fund duration model changed from bearish to bullish on September 3 [18][20][29]. 3.3 Recent Behavioral Characteristics of Each Institution This week, the rolling cumulative net purchases of 10 - year policy - financial bonds, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds by funds continued to rise. Fund companies' net purchases of 10 - year policy - financial bonds and 30 - year Treasury bonds increased significantly. Rural commercial banks changed from cumulative net purchases to cumulative net sales of 10 - year policy - financial bonds and 30 - year Treasury bonds. Securities companies changed from net sales to net purchases of 3 types of long - term interest - rate bonds [2][31][39]. 3.4 Recent Stock - Bond Correlation Performance Under the influence of the good performance of the equity market recently, the bond market has been weak overall. From July 22 to September 5, the correlation coefficient between stocks and bonds remained at a high level, lasting for 34 trading days with a total upward amplitude of 15.9BP. This market may become a new trend [45].