Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Shengquan Group, Hailide, and Zhuoyue New Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong performance in the first half of the year, particularly those expected to exceed earnings forecasts in Q2 2025. It highlights Shengquan Group's role as a major domestic supplier of electronic resins for AI servers, benefiting from increasing server shipments. Hailide is noted for its leadership in the polyester industrial yarn sector, which is expected to benefit from U.S. tariff conflicts. Zhuoyue New Energy is recognized for its capacity growth and new product launches, which are anticipated to elevate its performance [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical sector index closed at 3518.55 points, up 0.80% from the previous week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.74% [10]. - Among 462 stocks in the chemical sector, 53% saw weekly gains, while 45% experienced declines [17]. Key Chemical Products - Liquid chlorine, butanone, TDI, and epoxy chloropropane saw significant price increases, with liquid chlorine rising by 21% [20][21]. - Conversely, methanol and pure MDI prices fell by 11% and 9%, respectively [22]. Fertilizer Sector - The report indicates a favorable export window for phosphate fertilizers, with exports expected to peak between May and September 2025, potentially alleviating domestic overcapacity issues [2]. Safety and Regulatory Environment - Increased scrutiny on chemical safety following recent accidents is expected to elevate the overall demand for pesticides, as non-compliant production capacities may be phased out [3]. Company Performance Forecasts - Shengquan Group's EPS is projected to rise from 1.03 CNY in 2024 to 2.13 CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 28 to 13 [4]. - Hailide's EPS is expected to increase from 0.35 CNY in 2024 to 0.41 CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio of 15 [4]. - Zhuoyue New Energy's EPS is forecasted to grow from 1.24 CNY in 2024 to 4.80 CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio dropping from 38 to 10 [4].

市场动态点评 研究助理：钟渝梅 执业证号：S0100124080017 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com ➢ A 股年内新高，美股历史新高，这场联袂的上涨"戏码"，还能持续多久？ A 股、美股共振：复盘与展望 2025 年 07 月 07 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：邵翔 分析师：张云杰 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100524080007 执业证号：S0100525020002 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyunjie@mszq.com 如果回到年初，可能难以现象在中美贸易摩擦下中美股市竟然可以同步地进入 "高光"时刻，回过头来看，我们觉得有三个特征是值得关注的：首先，4 月以 来的本轮上涨，A 股的发动要更早，这既体现了政策的响应速度、也反映了资金 偏好的变化；其次，从结构上看，中美都有自己的核心资产。相较而言，美股的 "回补"特征很明显、兜兜转转又回到靠大型科技公司拉指数的节奏；而 A 股则 是靠金融等权重股稳步推动中枢上涨。第三则外部核心变量——美元的不同，我 们 ...

海外政策展望 跳出关税看谈判："7 月 9 日"还重要吗？ 2025 年 07 月 07 日 ➢ 对于一个在谈判中不守时的对手，我们真的还需要纠结于某个具体的时点 吗？这是我们持续跟踪特朗普贸易政策以来最大的感受和疑问，从 2 月以来特朗 普关税的起起伏伏、反反复复已经成为常态，TACO 交易已经深入人心。7 月 9 日，作为明面上第一阶段暂缓结束的时间节点，说它重要，那是因为特朗普确实 需要给民众和国际社会一个"交待"；说它不重要，则是很多事情的走向在 4 月 以来的两个多月里已经埋下"草灰蛇线"，"7 月 9 日"虽然给了市场短期更多的 波动，但在特朗普重塑全球贸易的版图中可能并不重要。 ➢ 首先我们来说说特朗普的"交待"。我们觉得核心就在于两个方面：一是要 突出"胜利"；二是要展现强势和压迫感（至少在民众面前）。 ➢ 国力相对偏弱的小国：相对更高的税率+更彻底的门户开放。越南比较有代 相关研究 1.海外市场点评：关税大限将至，市场需不需 要担心？-2025/07/06 2.海外市场点评：6 月非农缘何大超预期？-2 025/07/04 3.政策动态点评："反内卷"的下一步-2025/ 07/03 4.海 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Three-Dimensional Timing Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: This model integrates three dimensions—liquidity, divergence, and prosperity—to determine market timing. It aims to identify full-position opportunities based on the upward trend of liquidity and prosperity and the downward trend of divergence[8][13][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Liquidity Index**: Measures the market's liquidity level 2. **Divergence Index**: Reflects the degree of market disagreement 3. **Prosperity Index**: Indicates the economic and market activity level 4. The framework combines these three indices to generate timing signals, with historical performance showing its effectiveness in identifying market opportunities[15][19][20] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying full-position opportunities when liquidity and prosperity are rising, and divergence is falling[8][15] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Dividend Factor (dp_historical) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the total cash dividends implemented over the past four quarters relative to the current market value[46][47] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ dp\_historical = \frac{\text{Total Cash Dividends (Last 4 Quarters)}}{\text{Current Market Value}} $ - The factor is market-cap and industry-neutralized to ensure robustness[45][46] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance, with a one-week excess return of 1.65% and a one-month excess return of 1.68%[47] 2. Factor Name: PEG Factor (peg) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the price-to-earnings growth ratio to identify undervalued growth stocks[46][47] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ peg = \frac{\text{PE Ratio}}{\text{Earnings Growth Rate}} $ - The factor is adjusted for market-cap and industry neutrality[45][46] - **Factor Evaluation**: Exhibits strong performance, with a one-week excess return of 1.42% and a one-month excess return of 5.30%[47] 3. Factor Name: Earnings Yield Factor (ep_fy3) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Uses the inverse of the forward three-year price-to-earnings ratio to assess valuation[46][47] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ ep\_fy3 = \frac{1}{\text{Forward PE (3-Year)}} $ - The factor is market-cap and industry-neutralized[45][46] - **Factor Evaluation**: Shows consistent performance, with a one-week excess return of 1.32% and a one-month excess return of 3.41%[47] 4. Factor Name: PE-Growth Ranking Factor (pe_g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Ranks stocks based on the difference between PE rankings and earnings growth rankings[46][49] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ pe\_g = \text{PE Rank} - \text{Earnings Growth Rank} $ - The factor is adjusted for market-cap and industry neutrality[45][46] - **Factor Evaluation**: Performs well across different indices, with a one-week excess return of 4.84% in the CSI 300 index and 3.70% in the CSI 1000 index[49] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Dividend Factor (dp_historical) - **One-Week Excess Return**: 1.65%[47] - **One-Month Excess Return**: 1.68%[47] 2. PEG Factor (peg) - **One-Week Excess Return**: 1.42%[47] - **One-Month Excess Return**: 5.30%[47] 3. Earnings Yield Factor (ep_fy3) - **One-Week Excess Return**: 1.32%[47] - **One-Month Excess Return**: 3.41%[47] 4. PE-Growth Ranking Factor (pe_g) - **One-Week Excess Return in CSI 300**: 4.84%[49] - **One-Week Excess Return in CSI 1000**: 3.70%[49] --- Quantitative Portfolio Performance 1. CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio - **Absolute Return (Last Week)**: 2.67% - **Excess Return (Last Week)**: 0.10% - **Absolute Return (YTD)**: 5.01% - **Excess Return (YTD)**: 4.98%[50][52] 2. CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio - **Absolute Return (Last Week)**: 4.59% - **Excess Return (Last Week)**: 0.02% - **Absolute Return (YTD)**: 2.97% - **Excess Return (YTD)**: 2.76%[50][52] 3. CSI 1000 Enhanced Portfolio - **Absolute Return (Last Week)**: 5.63% - **Excess Return (Last Week)**: 0.24% - **Absolute Return (YTD)**: 7.81% - **Excess Return (YTD)**: 5.53%[50][52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry, highlighting potential growth opportunities in the sector [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the disparity between the automotive parts and vehicle manufacturing sectors in China, noting that 17 Chinese automotive parts companies made it into the global top 100, generating a total revenue of 110.4 billion yuan, which accounts for 11.7% of the global top 100 automotive parts companies [2][10]. - The report suggests a favorable outlook for the automotive market, particularly for companies with strong product cycles and those focusing on intelligent and electric vehicles [4][21]. - The report identifies key investment opportunities in various segments, including passenger vehicles, automotive parts, robotics, motorcycles, heavy trucks, and tires, recommending specific companies within these categories [4][21][22]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data - In the fourth week of June 2025, passenger car sales reached 579,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.0% and a month-on-month increase of 3.7% [3][48]. - New energy vehicle sales for the same period were 298,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 26.7% and a penetration rate of 51.6% [3][48]. Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with the A-share automotive sector rising by 0.65%, ranking 22nd among sub-industries, while the CSI 300 index increased by 1.80% [3][35]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Geely, BYD, Li Auto, Xiaomi, Xpeng Motors, Berteli, Top Group, New Spring, Hu Guang, and Chunfeng Power, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing transformation in the automotive industry [4][18][21]. Industry Trends - The report highlights the growing importance of intelligent driving and electric vehicles, predicting that the market for high-end intelligent vehicles will expand significantly [19][22]. - It notes that the automotive parts industry is experiencing a shift towards globalization, with Chinese companies expected to increase their market share significantly by 2025 [22][23]. Segment Analysis - The report identifies key segments within the automotive parts industry, including powertrains, automotive electronics, and advanced driver assistance systems, which are expected to see substantial growth [2][12][13]. - It also discusses the motorcycle market, noting a significant increase in sales of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles, driven by consumer demand and export growth [27][28]. Heavy Trucks and Tires - The heavy truck segment is expected to benefit from expanded subsidy policies aimed at replacing older vehicles, which will stimulate demand [30][31]. - The tire industry is projected to grow due to high domestic and international demand, with leading companies expected to expand their global presence [32][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the industry, highlighting the potential for recovery and growth in the securities and insurance sectors [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of IPO approvals and the importance of leading brokerage firms in benefiting from the upcoming market opportunities [3][4]. - It notes the supportive policies for innovative drug development and the expected increase in funding from commercial health insurance, which will enhance the accessibility of high-end medical products [1][2]. - The report discusses the implementation of the "1+6" policy for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which aims to support the financing needs of technology companies and stimulate investment from equity firms [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Major indices continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.40% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.25% during the week [8]. - The non-bank financial sector showed a slight decline, with the insurance index being relatively resilient [8][9]. Securities Sector - The report indicates that the total IPO underwriting scale for the year reached 357.84 billion yuan, with refinancing underwriting at 7,835.44 billion yuan as of July 4, 2025 [16]. - The average daily trading volume in A-shares was 1.43 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.33% increase week-on-week and a 129.93% increase year-on-year [16]. Insurance Sector - The report suggests focusing on key insurance companies such as China Pacific Insurance, New China Life, Ping An, China Life, and China Property & Casualty [39]. - It highlights the expected recovery in life insurance premiums, with significant growth anticipated in the coming months [19][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to leading brokerage firms like CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Galaxy, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in investment banking revenues [39]. - It also suggests monitoring non-bank financial institutions that may benefit from the implementation of stablecoin regulations and related services [39].

Market Sentiment - The market appears to be underestimating the potential impact of the expiration of tariff exemptions, despite previous volatility caused by reciprocal tariffs in April[3] - The "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) trading strategy has become a market instinct, reflecting a belief that Trump will not take aggressive actions on tariffs[5] Economic Indicators - The passage of the "Great Beautiful" Act has led to a slight rebound in interest rates and the dollar, following a drop in unemployment rates and better-than-expected non-farm payroll data[4] - The market's optimism regarding interest rate cuts is seen as overly optimistic, with a significant probability of deviation from consensus expectations[4] Policy Implications - The "Great Beautiful" Act is projected to increase the fiscal deficit significantly, with Senate estimates at $3.366 trillion and House estimates at $2.416 trillion over ten years[15] - The current trade negotiations have only resulted in agreements with the UK, Vietnam, and Cambodia, indicating limited success in tariff negotiations[7] Political Dynamics - Trump's approval ratings have dropped, particularly in swing states, with a notable decline in support among lower-income voters, which may necessitate a shift in policy direction[16] - Elon Musk's recent criticisms of Trump's tax policies suggest a growing discontent among influential figures, potentially impacting Trump's political strategy[8] Risk Assessment - The likelihood of a return to April's tariff levels is assessed to be neutral at 50%, with potential for significant market adjustments if tariffs are increased unexpectedly[9] - Investors are advised to hedge against potential downturns and consider reducing exposure to risk assets in light of ongoing economic uncertainties[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Yunnan Aluminum [5]. Core Insights - The "Big and Beautiful" bill's passage and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are driving strong economic forecasts in the U.S., leading to a recovery in domestic manufacturing PMI and rising industrial metal prices [2][4]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to high prices suppressing downstream purchasing intentions, despite a slight increase in the SMM imported copper concentrate index [2]. - The cobalt market is supported by a ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo, while the lithium market is still in a state of price negotiation between upstream and downstream players [3]. - Precious metals are expected to perform well due to concerns over U.S. debt and currency issues, with gold prices anticipated to rise [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report highlights a mixed performance in industrial metals, with aluminum prices facing downward pressure due to seasonal demand weakness and high prices affecting production [18]. - Copper prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors, with a noted decline in downstream demand and purchasing intentions [40]. - Zinc prices are fluctuating due to geopolitical tensions and market sentiment, with recent data showing a slight decline [49][50]. Precious Metals - The report indicates a bullish outlook for gold prices driven by U.S. fiscal concerns and central bank purchasing [4]. - Silver prices are also expected to rise due to its industrial applications and recovery dynamics [4]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while lithium prices are stabilizing after a period of volatility [3]. - Nickel prices are projected to remain stable, with production adjustments expected from nickel salt producers [61]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Yunnan Aluminum, based on their strong earnings forecasts and favorable market conditions [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the electric equipment and new energy sectors, including CATL, Keda, and others [5][6]. Core Insights - The electric equipment and new energy sector saw a weekly increase of 1.99%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with solar energy indices leading the gains at 6.80% [1]. - The report highlights a strong growth trend in the new energy vehicle market, with significant delivery increases from various manufacturers, indicating a competitive landscape [2]. - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a shift away from price wars towards innovation-driven competition, supported by government policies aimed at improving supply-demand dynamics [3][34][36]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles - In June 2025, several new energy vehicle manufacturers reported strong delivery numbers, with Li Auto delivering 36,279 units, and Xiaopeng exceeding its total deliveries for 2024 in just the first half of 2025 [12][14]. - NIO delivered 24,925 units in June, marking a 17.5% year-on-year increase, while BYD maintained its market leadership with 382,585 units delivered in June, a 12% increase [20][24]. 2. Photovoltaics - The report discusses recent government initiatives to curb "involution" in the photovoltaic sector, emphasizing the need for quality over price competition [34][36]. - Key industry players are expected to benefit from a potential rebound in prices and profitability as excess capacity is phased out [3][41]. 3. Electric Equipment and Automation - National electricity load reached a record high of 1.465 billion kilowatts, indicating robust demand for electric power infrastructure [4]. - The report notes the acceleration of ultra-high voltage projects, which are crucial for enhancing the efficiency of electricity transmission [4]. 4. Market Performance - The solar energy index showed the highest weekly increase, while industrial automation experienced a decline, reflecting varying market dynamics within the sector [1]. - The report identifies several companies to watch, including CATL, Keda, and others, which are positioned to capitalize on emerging trends in the electric equipment and new energy markets [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the steel sector, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates a release of "anti-involution" signals, reigniting expectations for supply-side reforms. The central financial committee has emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [3][8]. - Steel prices have increased, with notable rises in various categories, such as rebar and cold-rolled steel, reflecting a positive trend in the market [1][9]. - The report highlights an increase in steel production and a decrease in total inventory, suggesting a tightening supply situation [2][6]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of July 4, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3180 CNY/ton, up 90 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products also saw price increases, with cold-rolled steel rising by 120 CNY/ton [1][9]. Production and Inventory - The total production of the five major steel categories reached 8.85 million tons, an increase of 41,700 tons week-on-week. Total inventory decreased, with social inventory rising by 96,600 tons to 9.148 million tons, while steel mill inventory fell by 97,200 tons [2][6]. Profitability - Steel profits have risen, with estimated gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel increasing by 45 CNY/ton, 18 CNY/ton, and 40 CNY/ton, respectively [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment: - For the general steel sector: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - For special steel: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. - For pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Additionally, it suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy stocks like Fushun Special Steel [3][4]. Key Company Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for most, with Baosteel's PE ratio projected to decrease from 21 in 2024 to 14 in 2026 [3][4].