电子行业动态 苹果在美扩产&开启创新新周期，3C 设备景气度上行 2025 年 09 月 08 日 ➢ 苹果追加在美投资，并官宣全新"美国制造计划"。当地时间 8 月 6 日，苹 果追加在美投资，并官宣全新"美国制造计划"，未来四年在美投资总额将达 6000 亿美元，构成苹果公司有史以来在美国的最大规模投资。尽管将供应链迁回美国 可能会抬高 iPhone 制造成本，也需要较高的时间成本，但关税压力之下苹果最 终做出妥协，现启动的"美国制造计划"涵盖包括康宁、应用材料等美国本土 10 家企业的合作。 ➢ 苹果或将开启新一轮产品创新周期。除官宣"美国制造计划"外，苹果还于 近期正式公布了 9 月新品发布会的邀请函，预计包括 iPhone 17 系列在内的三 条产品线的多款新品都将会在此次发布会上亮相。今年最大的变化是新机型 iPhone 17 Air，其替代了推出多年的 Plus 机型，主打轻薄设计，并或将在大部 分市场取消 SIM 卡槽设计，该机型可能会引领智能手机市场再度回归轻薄设计 的路线，并推动中国三大运营商对于现有 eSIM 业务的改革，全面加速无卡化进 程。而从未来三年产品规划来看，苹果或将开启新一轮 ...

化工行业周报（20250901-20250907） 本周甲基麦芽酚、百草枯、顺酐、硫磺、MDI 等产品涨幅居前 2025 年 09 月 08 日 化工周观点： ➢ 重点关注半年报业绩好的标的。建议关注圣泉集团、海利得。首先是与宏观 经济波动相关性较弱，受益 AI 资本开支持续提升的新材料行业，圣泉集团是 AI 服务器中核心电子树脂的主要国内供应商，随着下游服务器出货量持续放量，公 司业绩环比提升。其次是海外有工厂，受益于美国关税冲突的细分行业龙头，建 议关注涤纶工业丝的领军企业海利得。 ➢ 磷肥出口窗口期已至，磷肥高景气有望持续。根据中国化肥信息网，磷肥的 出口指导具体情况如下：1、2025 年磷肥出口或将分阶段进行，首批集中在 5-9 月高峰期，第二批视国内供需动态调整。2、法检时间缩减，预计半月左右时间。 3、2025 年磷肥出口配额总量比去年减少。当前磷肥处于春耕后的淡季，出口有 望缓解国内产能过剩问题，国际高价出口有望进一步维持企业盈利水平，建议关 注具备磷矿资源配套的大型磷化工企业：云天化。 ➢ 化工安全事故频发引起重视，农药整体景气度有望抬升。5 月 27 日，友道 化学发生爆炸事故，其生产的氯虫 ...

九方智投控股（09636.HK）深度报告 To C 流量精准转化与科技赋能下的高成长性 2025 年 09 月 08 日 ➢ 九方智投控股：凭借科技驱动的智能化投顾服务，在中国在线投资决策解决 方案市场中占据领先地位。公司深耕证券投资咨询领域，通过 AI 技术、大数据 分析、智能化投顾体系及 MCN 流量运营，形成了独特的商业模式。近年来，公 司积极推动业务模式升级，深化 To C 端流量精准转化，并通过科技赋能优化投 资者体验。公司股东结构稳定，管理团队经验丰富，为企业长期发展奠定了坚实 基础。同时，公司持续加大在投研、科技、流量运营等关键领域的投入，提升市 场竞争力。 ➢ 公司业务规模持续扩张，盈利能力在市场环境影响下有所波动，但成本优化 和现金流管理成效显著。公司营业收入快速增长，2019 至 2023 年复合增长率 达 63.7%，2024 年全年收入达 23.0 亿元，同比增长 17.4%。受市场活跃度变 化影响，公司净利润呈周期性波动，2023 年归母净利润为 1.9 亿元，同比下降 58.5%，2024 年回升至 2.7 亿元，同比增长 42.4%；2025H1 归母净利润进一 步回升至 8.7 ...

8 月进出口：减速后动能几何？ 2025 年 09 月 08 日 [Table_Author] ➢ 8 月进出口同比再次减速，下半年经济增长动能几何？尽管基数影响下 8 月 出口回落至年内低位，但结构上仍有亮点，欧盟以及新兴经济体为代表的新动能 对出口拉动持续上行，而产品结构也呈现明显的提质升级特征，对出口构成支撑。 但进口增速的再度回落表明内需增长有待进一步提振。年内后续时间，在出口新 动能支撑以及进口相对较弱的背景下，贸易顺差将继续成为支撑 GDP 增长的动 力之一。 分析师：陶川 研究助理：武朔 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100125070003 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn ➢ 具体来看，8 月进出口的成色究竟如何？对于出口端来说： ➢ 首先，8 月出口增速回落更多缘于基数上行。从季节性来看，近 3 个月出口 规模维持在季节性高位，8 月出口金额较 7 月甚至边际回升（与 PMI 新出口订 单反应的特征一致），随着 9 月后基数的再次回落，出口增速有望修复。 ➢ 事件：9 月 8 日，海关总署公布 8 月进出口数 ...

➢ 投资建议：考虑到关税有望持续转移给美国消费者，并且龙头轮胎企业利润 有望随着全球化进程深入不断提升，建议重点赛轮轮胎、森麒麟、玲珑轮胎。 ➢ 风险提示：航运费显著涨价，原材料价格显著上涨，轮胎销售不及预期，政 策不及预期的风险。 [Table_Author] 分析师 刘海荣 | 执业证书： S0100522050001 | | | --- | --- | | 邮箱： | liuhairong@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 刘隆基 | | 执业证书： S0100524080006 | | | 邮箱： | liulongji@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 化工行业点评报告 多家轮胎企业发布涨价通知，看好轮胎企业利润修复 2025 年 09 月 08 日 ➢ 事件：多家轮胎企业近期发布涨价函，9 月 4 日山东揽迈轮胎有限公司决定 自 2025 年 9 月 1 日起对全钢 12R22.5 产品，HC218、HC101 价格上调 5%； HC102 上调 4%。13R22.5 全系列产品整体上调 1%，后期根据市场情况每半年 调整一次，直至上调 3%；9 月 1 日，江阴市安基橡胶工业有限公 ...

信用债周策略 20250907 信用债票息策略有优势吗 2025 年 09 月 07 日 ➢ 信用债票息策略有优势吗 今年以来，信用债在调整行情中呈现出较为突出的抗跌属性，具体表现为其调整节奏和幅 度基本接近利率债的调整。目前资金价格仍维持在较低位置，市场整体交易空间有限，信 用债仍具有一定的票息价值，可以继续保持关注。但考虑到信用利差保护空间确实不足， 配置基金的进场节奏较慢，再加上股市情绪可能尚未演绎至高潮阶段，因此当前信用债投 资思路主要从配置思维出发，票息策略占优。 历史区间上 9 月份多为债市逆风期，但今年来看债市调整的节点可能提前。观察 2018 年 以来每年三季度的国债和中短票收益率走势，收益率上行概率较高，以 5Y/AAA-中短票 为例，在过去 7 个年度的区间内，9 月份利率保持下行的概率只有不到 15%，而 7 月份 和 8 月份的下行概率分别为 86%和 43%左右。今年的市场情况有所变化，7 月份以来， 债市在权益行情走强的影响下已经经历了一波上行期并维持震荡态势，近期中短票的收益 率均触及今年以来的次高点，或许意味着债市调整的节点有所提前。 9 月信用债或将继续震荡偏弱，但调整幅度相 ...

Group 1 - The report suggests that in the current weak bond market, maintaining a bullet-type portfolio may lead to instability in liabilities, while adopting a trading strategy could enhance returns despite limited execution time and space [1][6][35] - It is recommended to focus on whether interest rates are oversold and if there is a short-term downward adjustment opportunity, as the probability of significant upward movement in interest rates remains low [1][6][35] - The current high level of the futures long-short ratio indicates that short-selling pressure is weak, suggesting that prices are not oversold, with the average cost of 10-year government bonds held by funds around 1.8% [2][7][17] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that if market sentiment reverses and interest rates decline smoothly, a shift back to a buy-on-dips strategy could be considered, although this requires specific events such as a central bank rate cut [2][3][36] - Investors are advised to focus on active long-term interest rate bonds, with expected volatility for 10-year government bonds in the range of 1.7-1.8% [2][3][36] - The report highlights the importance of selecting bonds based on the yield curve and value, recommending specific bonds such as 25T6 for long-term interest rate bonds and 240208 for medium-term bonds [12][9][10] Group 3 - In the context of credit bonds, the report notes that while the funding environment remains loose, attention should be gradually shifted away from medium to long-term credit bonds due to potential funding fluctuations in the upcoming months [3][12] - The report indicates that the performance of TF and T contracts has been relatively better than cash bonds, with the TL main contract being cheaper [3][13] - The report provides a weekly review of the bond market, noting a slight decline in overall interest rates, with short-term bonds performing better under the current conditions [14][15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry, highlighting strong performance and growth potential in various segments [5]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a robust recovery, with significant growth in passenger vehicle sales and a notable increase in new energy vehicle penetration [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of intelligent and electric vehicles, predicting accelerated growth in these areas, particularly for quality domestic brands [12][13]. - The robotics sector is highlighted as a new catalyst for growth, with major players like Tesla advancing in humanoid robot production, which is expected to impact the automotive supply chain positively [2][15]. Summary by Sections Weekly Overview - The automotive sector outperformed the market, with the A-share automotive sector rising by 1.0% from September 1 to September 5, 2025, compared to a 0.6% increase in the CSI 300 index [1][25]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Geely, Xpeng, Li Auto, BYD, and Xiaomi, among others [10]. Weekly Data - In the fifth week of August 2025, passenger car sales reached 523,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month-on-month increase of 9.5% [1][34]. - New energy vehicle sales for the same period were 290,000 units, with a penetration rate of 55.3% [1][34]. Key Developments - Geely's merger with Zeekr received shareholder approval, marking a significant step in its "One Geely" strategy [3][11]. - The introduction of new models, such as the Aion M7, is expected to drive sales further, with pre-orders exceeding 150,000 units within 24 hours [3][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality domestic brands that are accelerating in intelligence and globalization, specifically naming Geely, Xpeng, Li Auto, BYD, and others [4][12]. - In the parts sector, companies involved in intelligent driving and new energy vehicle supply chains are highlighted, including Berteli, Horizon Robotics, and Top Group [4][13]. Robotics Sector Insights - The report notes the increasing pace of domestic humanoid robot manufacturers entering the market, with significant production goals set by Tesla for its Optimus robot [2][15]. - The potential for robotics to integrate with the automotive supply chain is emphasized, suggesting a strong overlap between automotive parts and robotics manufacturing [17]. Motorcycle and Heavy Truck Markets - The motorcycle market is seeing growth in the mid to high displacement segments, with sales of 250cc and above motorcycles increasing significantly [18][19]. - The heavy truck market is expected to benefit from expanded subsidy policies aimed at replacing older vehicles, with sales showing a year-on-year increase of 45.6% in July 2025 [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the electric equipment and new energy sectors, highlighting strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [7]. Core Insights - The electric equipment and new energy sector experienced a weekly increase of 7.39%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with solar energy indices showing the highest growth at 14.51% [3]. - The report emphasizes the robust performance of new energy vehicle sales, with NIO achieving a record high in August, and overall market growth driven by multiple new energy vehicle manufacturers [4][13]. - The report discusses the government's initiative to regulate low-price competition in the photovoltaic sector, aiming for high-quality development and improved industry standards [5][37]. - The successful commissioning of the Jinshang-Hubei ±800 kV UHVDC project is noted, which is a significant part of China's "West-to-East Power Transmission" strategy, capable of transmitting approximately 40 billion kWh annually [6][56]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - In August 2025, several new energy vehicle manufacturers reported strong delivery numbers, with NIO delivering 31,305 units, a 49% month-on-month increase, and Li Auto delivering 28,529 units, reflecting a competitive market landscape [4][15]. - The overall trend indicates a significant increase in deliveries across various brands, showcasing the growing demand for new energy vehicles [4][21]. New Energy Generation - The report highlights the joint action plan by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation to combat low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry, aiming for sustainable growth and quality improvement [5][37]. - The plan sets a target for the photovoltaic and component manufacturing sectors to achieve an average annual revenue growth rate of over 5% from 2025 to 2026 [5][37]. Electric Equipment and Automation - The Jinshang-Hubei UHVDC project has successfully completed its trial operation, marking a significant milestone in China's energy transmission capabilities [6][56]. - The report notes the ongoing focus on key companies in the electric equipment sector, including CATL, Keda Li, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the growing demand for electric power infrastructure [6][56]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the electric equipment and new energy sector is experiencing a favorable market environment, with significant price movements in key materials and components, reflecting the industry's resilience and growth potential [3][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The satellite internet industry is poised for significant development opportunities under strong policy support, marking the beginning of a "great maritime era" in commercial aerospace. The integration of satellite internet and computing power, termed "space computing," has long-term growth potential, with ongoing acceleration in the construction of relevant constellations in China [3][27] - The "Star Computing Plan" is expected to achieve a network of thousands of satellites, significantly accelerating the development of space computing. The "Three-body Computing Constellation" aims to reach a total computing power of 1000P, addressing the limitations of traditional data processing methods [9][10][11] - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant layouts in the space computing field, such as Putian Technology, Zhongke Xingtu, Zhongke Shuguang, Kaipu Cloud, Ruijun Power, Qianfang Technology, Jiadu Technology, and China Software, as well as leading enterprises in the satellite internet sector like Chuangyi Information, Shanghai Hanyun, Nanjing Panda, Meiansen, and Liujiumer [3][27] Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of September 1-5, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.81%, the SME index dropped by 2.29%, while the ChiNext index rose by 2.35%. The computer sector (CITIC) saw a decline of 6.76% [35] Industry News - The report highlights the significant development opportunities in the satellite internet industry, driven by strong policy support and the potential for space computing to become a new direction for the development of both satellite internet and computing power industries [3][27] Company Dynamics - Companies like Hai Lian Xun and You Feng Network are actively engaging in stock exchanges and share repurchase plans, indicating strategic movements within the industry [2][33] Investment Suggestions - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies that are strategically positioned in the space computing sector, as well as those with core advantages in the satellite internet niche [27]