Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Bilibili-W (9626.HK) [4] Core Insights - Bilibili's Q3 2025 results exceeded expectations, with revenue of 7.69 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 5%, and adjusted net profit of 790 million RMB, up 233% year-over-year, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 22% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from its strategy of "self-developed quality products and global distribution," with a focus on improving profitability and operational efficiency [4] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2025 revenue: 76.9 billion RMB, gross profit: 28.2 billion RMB, adjusted operating profit: 6.9 billion RMB, adjusted net profit: 7.9 billion RMB [1] - Q3 2025 advertising revenue: 25.7 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 23%, accounting for 33% of total revenue [3] - Q3 2025 value-added services revenue: 30.2 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 7% [3] - Forecasted revenues for 2025-2027 are 29.9 billion RMB, 32.7 billion RMB, and 35.9 billion RMB, respectively [5] User Metrics - Q3 2025 daily active users (DAU): 117 million, year-over-year increase of 9%; monthly active users (MAU): 376 million, year-over-year increase of 8% [1] - The number of creators earning revenue reached nearly 2.5 million, with average income per creator increasing by 22% year-over-year [1] Game Development Insights - Mobile game revenue in Q3 2025 was 15.1 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 17% due to high base effects from the previous year [2] - Upcoming game releases include "Three Kingdoms: Hundred Generals Card" expected in Q1 2026 [2] Advertising and Marketing Trends - The advertising budget is expected to continue increasing, with significant growth in AI and education sector advertising [3] - During the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, the number of new customers increased by over 100% year-over-year [3]

Group 1 - The report suggests that in the absence of strong expectations for short-term interest rate cuts, both long-term government bond yields and short-term deposit rates are unlikely to decline significantly. The market currently does not anticipate easing of short-term funds or a reduction in LPR [1][8][37] - It is recommended to focus on two strategies for portfolio construction: 1. Opt for slightly lower duration for defensive positioning, waiting for a rate adjustment of around 5 basis points before considering extending duration; 2. Maintain a market-neutral or slightly longer duration stance, with risk exposure suggested to be placed in active bonds where spreads can compress, such as government bonds and ultra-long government bonds [1][8][40] Group 2 - For bond selection, the report emphasizes prioritizing long-term interest rate bonds, particularly focusing on 250215. If there is a higher frequency demand for duration adjustment, 25T6 should be considered. For higher yield bonds like 25T5 and 25T3, attention should gradually decrease as spreads compress further [2][10][12] - In the context of credit bonds, the report notes that the spread between 3-5 year credit bonds and government bonds is already low, indicating limited room for further compression. It is suggested to focus on mid-term government bonds for short-term capital gains, while mid to long-term credit bonds may offer better value for long-term holding [3][13] Group 3 - The report indicates that the current overall IRR level of government bond futures is slightly higher than the funding rate, with most futures contracts being relatively expensive compared to cash bonds. The strategy of focusing on the compression of spreads between government bonds and government-backed bonds is recommended [4][14] - The report highlights that the bond market has maintained a volatile trend, with government bonds showing stronger performance. Despite weak financial and economic data in October, interest rates have not significantly declined, and the market sentiment towards bonds remains cautious [15][20]

- The report constructs an ETF hotspot trend strategy based on the highest and lowest price trends of ETFs, selecting those with both highest and lowest prices in an upward trend. Further, it constructs a support-resistance factor based on the relative steepness of the regression coefficients of the highest and lowest prices over the past 20 days, and selects the top 10 ETFs with the highest turnover rate in the past 5 days/20 days to construct a risk parity portfolio[27][30] - The report tracks the performance of various style factors, noting that the value factor recorded a positive return of 2.36%, the leverage factor recorded a positive return of 1.08%, and the volatility factor slightly rebounded with a return of 0.19%[41][42] - The report evaluates the performance of different alpha factors, highlighting that the quick ratio factor had the best performance with a weekly excess return of 1.32%, followed by the debt-asset ratio factor with a weekly excess return of 1.21%, and the earnings variability over 5 years factor with a weekly excess return of 1.04%[44][46][47] - The ETF hotspot trend strategy recorded a cumulative excess return over the CSI 300 index since the beginning of the year[28][29] - The value factor achieved a weekly return of 2.36%, the leverage factor achieved a weekly return of 1.08%, and the volatility factor achieved a weekly return of 0.19%[41][42] - The quick ratio factor achieved a weekly excess return of 1.32%, the debt-asset ratio factor achieved a weekly excess return of 1.21%, and the earnings variability over 5 years factor achieved a weekly excess return of 1.04%[44][46][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the technology sector, particularly on companies involved in AI infrastructure and applications, suggesting a focus on NVIDIA, Broadcom, SanDisk, Micron, and Lumentum [4][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights that recent fluctuations in the US technology sector are more related to valuation corrections and liquidity tightening rather than fundamental changes. Revenue growth rates for leading tech companies are in line with expectations, and the return on investment (ROI) for AI continues to accelerate [4][19]. - NVIDIA is expected to report a revenue of $55.1 billion for FY26Q3, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57%, with data center revenue projected at $49.1 billion. The company is seen as maintaining high demand and growth potential in the AI infrastructure cycle [2][11]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Key US Technology Company Dynamics - CoreWeave reported a Q3 revenue of $1.4 billion, a 134% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand for AI training and inference. The company’s order backlog reached $55.6 billion, nearly doubling from Q2, with a record RPO of $50 billion [6][8]. - Nebius achieved a Q3 revenue of $14.6 million, a 355% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by contracts with Microsoft and Meta. The company has adjusted its 2025 revenue guidance to $500-550 million [6][9]. - OKLO experienced an expanded Q3 operating loss of $36.3 million, despite receiving approval for new fuel facilities. The company continues to expand its commercial pipeline with significant customer reserves [6][10]. Section 2: Key Earnings Forecasts - NVIDIA's upcoming earnings report is anticipated to show strong performance, with a projected gross margin of 73.7%. The company’s CEO has indicated confidence in achieving $500 billion in cumulative data center revenue by 2025-2026 [2][11]. Section 3: International Technology Industry Dynamics - OpenAI has launched the upgraded GPT-5.1, focusing on enhancing emotional value and interaction experience. The new model includes features that improve response times and understanding, catering to both paid and free users [3][12]. Section 4: Weekly Perspective - The report emphasizes the ongoing strength in the AI sector, with expectations for continued penetration of AI applications driven by model iterations. Companies like Google, AppLovin, and Roblox are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4][19].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.26% this week, with a trading volume of HKD 1.16 trillion[1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 0.42%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 1.41%[1] - Net inflow from southbound trading was HKD 22.6 billion this week, totaling HKD 1,214.3 billion year-to-date, which is 164.5% of the total net inflow for 2024[1] Sector Performance - The top two performing sectors this week were Consumer Staples and Paper & Packaging, with weekly gains of 10.27% and 6.66% respectively[1] - Notable stocks in the Consumer Staples sector included Jiangsu Hongxin, Alpha Enterprises, and JD Health, with increases of 13.21%, 11.54%, and 6.59% respectively[1] - Other strong performing sectors included Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology (5.4%) and Durable Goods (5.03%)[1] AI Developments - GPT-5.1 was officially released on November 13, featuring enhanced models for improved communication and reasoning capabilities[2] - Baidu launched the Wenxin 5.0 model, which supports multimodal input and output, boasting over 2.4 trillion parameters[2] Company Earnings - Tencent reported Q3 2025 revenue of HKD 192.9 billion, a 15% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of HKD 63.1 billion, up 19%[8] - JD Group achieved Q3 2025 revenue of HKD 299.1 billion, a 14.9% increase year-on-year, but net profit fell to HKD 5.3 billion from HKD 11.7 billion in the previous year[8] - Bilibili's Q3 2025 revenue was HKD 7.69 billion, a 5% increase, with adjusted net profit soaring 233% to HKD 0.79 billion[8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on platform-based internet companies with computational resources and model capabilities, including Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Baidu, and Meituan[4] - AI ecosystem companies with model or application capabilities are also recommended, such as Qunar, Meitu, JD Health, and Zhihu[4] Risks - Geopolitical risks may impact overseas revenue and competitiveness, potentially affecting stock prices[26] - Regulatory risks in the internet sector could influence industry and individual stock performance[26] - Consumer recovery may not meet expectations, posing a risk to the consumer sector[26]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current convertible bond valuation remains relatively high, with some newly issued bonds having higher premium rates compared to other bonds at parity. This is attributed to strong demand for convertible bonds and high industry prosperity, leading to excess returns on corresponding stocks and increased volatility, which supports the high valuation levels of these new bonds [1][10]. - The report anticipates that the high premium of newly issued bonds will persist, as high-prosperity industries will continue to issue convertible bonds, maintaining a balance structure close to the levels seen in 2025. This is expected to support the valuation levels of newly issued bonds and the overall market [1][10]. - The report tracks the valuation levels across various industries, identifying the top ten industries with the highest valuations, including Media, Computer, Defense, Machinery, Electronics, Automotive, Beauty, Communication, Food & Beverage, and Electric Equipment. The proportion of high-valuation industry bonds has increased in 2025 compared to 2023 and 2024, indicating a rise in the overall market valuation center [2][11]. Group 2 - The weekly strategy indicates that most stock indices experienced adjustments, with the China Convertible Bond Index showing a slight increase of 0.52%. The report highlights that the median price of bonds in the parity range has risen, indicating that convertible bond valuations remain at historically high levels [3][17]. - The report notes that market liquidity remains ample, and as investor risk appetite gradually recovers, a mid-term upward trend in stock indices is expected. Key areas of focus include the acceleration of AI industrialization, the "anti-involution" trend benefiting sectors like photovoltaics and steel, and future industry-related convertible bonds such as hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion [3][17][18]. - Recent increases in convertible bond valuations may be due to inflows of new capital into the market, driven by a better alignment of the convertible bond market structure with current market styles. Specific sectors such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, coal, and steel are highlighted as key areas for institutional investment [4][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the power equipment and new energy sectors, including CATL, Keda, and others [5][6]. Core Insights - The global power battery installation volume reached 811.7 GWh from January to September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 34.7% [2][10]. - In September 2025, China's photovoltaic module exports increased by 62% year-on-year, with a total export of approximately 27 GW [20]. - In October 2025, Chinese companies signed or completed overseas strategic cooperation and orders totaling approximately 69 GWh [3][23]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - The global power battery installation volume for January to September 2025 was 811.7 GWh, a 34.7% increase year-on-year [2][10]. - CATL led the market with 297.2 GWh, followed by BYD with 145.0 GWh, and LG Energy with 79.7 GWh [11][14]. - The top ten Chinese companies accounted for 68.2% of the market share, with significant growth from companies like Honeycomb Energy and EVE Energy [11][14]. New Energy Generation - China's photovoltaic module exports reached approximately 27 GW in September 2025, a 62% increase year-on-year [20]. - By the end of September 2025, total exports of photovoltaic modules were about 206 GW, up 10% from the previous year [20]. - In October 2025, 47 Chinese companies signed or completed overseas projects totaling approximately 69 GWh, with significant orders in Europe and North America [3][23]. Power Equipment and Automation - The State Grid issued six batches of bidding announcements for power transmission and transformation equipment, with a total of 498 bidding packages, a year-on-year increase of 32 packages [4]. - The report highlights key companies to watch, including CATL, Keda, and others [4]. Market Performance - The power equipment and new energy sector saw a decline of 0.80% in the week from November 10 to November 14, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1]. - The lithium battery index experienced the highest increase of 1.29%, while the automation index saw the largest decline of 5.08% [1].

有色金属周报 20251116 美政府重启，流动性改善有助价格表现 2025 年 11 月 16 日 ➢ 本周（11/10-11/14）上证综指下跌 0.18%，沪深 300 指数下跌 1.08%，SW 有 色指数上涨+0.20%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金+1.91%，COMEX 白银+4.51%。工业金属 价格铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动 +0.99%、- 1.30%、+0.49%、 +0.49%、- 1.98%、 +0.99%；工业金属 LME 库存铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动+0.57%、- 0.13%、+11.68%、+9.22%、- 0.40%、+0.99%。 ➢ 工业金属：美政府停摆结束，经济数据走弱推动降息预期，中美关税和谈，国内 "十五五"规划落地，未来不改价格上行趋势。铜方面，SMM 进口铜精矿指数-42.21 美元/干吨，环比-0.17 美元/吨，坦桑尼亚港口运行效率仍然偏低。宏观上美国消费者 信心指数跌至三年低位，劳动力市场持续降温，降息预期升温，美元指数下行，对铜价 形成支撑；铝方面，10 月国内电解铝运行产能环比持平，国内供应持稳，海外冰岛某 铝厂因电气设备故障减产，莫桑比克某铝 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the automotive and automotive parts industry, particularly focusing on companies involved in intelligent driving and electric vehicles [3][4]. Core Insights - The automotive sector has shown weaker performance compared to the market, with a decline of 1.7% in the A-share automotive sector from November 10 to November 16, 2025, ranking 27th among sub-industries [29]. - Key companies to watch include Geely, Xpeng Motors, BYD, Xiaomi Group, Li Auto, Berteli, Top Group, New Spring, Hu Guang, and Chunfeng Power, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing transformation in the automotive industry [9][10]. - The report highlights the importance of Tesla's production progress and technological iterations as a core theme, alongside the upcoming IPOs of domestic robot manufacturers like Yushu Technology, which could serve as strong catalysts for the industry [10][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - Yushu Technology has completed its IPO guidance and plans to submit its IPO application between October and December 2025, with a post-investment valuation exceeding 12 billion yuan [10]. - The report emphasizes the significance of Tesla's advancements and the upcoming IPOs of domestic robot manufacturers as key drivers for the market [10][16]. 1.1 Passenger Vehicles - The report recommends focusing on high-quality domestic brands that are accelerating in intelligence and globalization, specifically naming Geely, Xpeng, BYD, Xiaomi, Li Auto, and Seres [13]. 1.2 Intelligent Electric Vehicles - The report anticipates long-term growth acceleration in the intelligent electric vehicle sector, highlighting the importance of intelligent driving technologies and the increasing market share of domestic brands [14][15]. 1.3 Robotics - The report notes that leading companies are accelerating their entry into the robotics sector, marking the beginning of a new era in embodied intelligence, with significant developments expected in 2026 [15][17]. 1.4 Liquid Cooling - The report discusses the rising demand for liquid cooling solutions driven by AI technology, predicting a compound annual growth rate of 27.6% from 2024 to 2030, with the market expected to reach 21.3 billion USD by 2030 [20][21]. 1.5 Motorcycles - The report highlights the rapid expansion of the large-displacement motorcycle market, with sales showing significant year-on-year growth, particularly in the 500cc to 800cc segment [22][24]. 1.6 Heavy Trucks - The report indicates that the expansion of the old-for-new subsidy policy will stimulate demand for heavy trucks, with a notable increase in sales observed in October 2025 [24][25]. 1.7 Tires - The report emphasizes the ongoing globalization of the tire industry, recommending leading companies that are well-positioned for growth and have strong manufacturing capabilities [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, based on their projected earnings and valuations [3][4]. Core Insights - The Ximangdu Iron Mine has officially commenced production, with a total designed capacity of 120 million tons per year, expected to gradually ramp up over the next 2-3 years. This high-quality iron ore resource is anticipated to lower iron ore prices, alleviating pressure on steel mill profits [3][4]. - Steel prices have decreased, with notable declines in rebar and medium plates, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices remained stable [1][9]. - Steel production has decreased, with a total output of 8.34 million tons for major steel products, down by 223,600 tons week-on-week. Total social inventory also fell by 136,300 tons [2][6]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of November 14, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,170 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products also saw price changes, with hot-rolled at 3,280 CNY/ton and cold-rolled at 3,770 CNY/ton remaining stable [1][9]. Production and Inventory - The total production of major steel products was 8.34 million tons, with rebar production specifically reduced to 2 million tons, a decrease of 85,400 tons week-on-week. Total social inventory decreased to 10.602 million tons [2][6]. Profitability - Steel margins have declined, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins decreasing by 29 CNY/ton, 37 CNY/ton, and 39 CNY/ton respectively. Electric arc furnace steel margins also saw a slight decrease of 2 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their market positioning and expected performance, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others in various segments such as special steel and pipe materials [3][4].