Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with seasonal demand in September and October, is likely to drive up industrial metal prices. The demand for copper is expected to remain strong despite a slight decline in production [2][3]. - For energy metals, the report anticipates a significant increase in cobalt prices due to reduced supply and strong demand, while lithium prices are expected to remain robust during the traditional peak season [3]. - In the precious metals sector, the report is optimistic about gold prices rising due to strong central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties, with silver also expected to perform well due to its industrial applications [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that the SMM imported copper concentrate index increased by $0.63 per ton, indicating a positive trend in copper demand. The electrolytic copper production is expected to decline, which may support prices in the upcoming months [2]. - Aluminum production has slightly increased, and the demand side shows signs of support as downstream buyers are starting to stock up [2][19]. - The report recommends companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining as key investment opportunities in the industrial metals sector [2]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise significantly due to supply shortages and increased purchasing activity from the market. Lithium demand is also projected to grow, leading to a tighter supply situation [3]. - The report suggests that companies like Huayou Cobalt and Ganfeng Lithium are worth watching due to their potential in the energy metals market [3]. Precious Metals - The report emphasizes a strong outlook for gold prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing central bank purchases. Silver is also expected to see price increases due to its industrial demand [4]. - Recommended companies in the precious metals sector include Western Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zhaojin Mining [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Employment data in the US is under pressure again, leading to a significant decline in US Treasury yields. The market's expectation for the interest - rate cut amplitude at the September meeting has increased significantly [1][3][9][11]. - The US manufacturing and service industries show different trends, with the manufacturing industry moving from contraction to expansion, while the service industry is still in a good expansion state but with a slowdown in expansion speed. EIA crude oil inventories increased significantly, contrary to market expectations [2][10]. - Global stock markets are mixed, with European markets generally under pressure. Precious metals in the commodity market hit new highs, and risk preferences are polarized. Non - US and non - European currencies have generally weakened against the RMB [4][15][16][17]. 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Indicator Review Employment - In July, JOLTS job openings were lower than expected, dropping to a 10 - month low (7.181 million, lower than the forecast of 7.380 million and the previous value of 7.357 million) [9]. - In August, the US ADP employment increase was only 54,000, far lower than the expected 73,000 and the previous value of 106,000, indicating a significant weakening of employment growth momentum [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims this week exceeded expectations, rising to 237,000, higher than the forecast of 230,000 and the previous value of 229,000, confirming the cooling trend of the labor market [9]. - The month - on - month growth rate of average hourly wages in August met expectations and was the same as the previous value (0.3%) [9]. - In August, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payroll employment increase was only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000 and a more than 70% drop from the previous value, further lowering the market's expectations for the employment market [9]. - The unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, in line with expectations and slightly higher than the previous value of 4.2%. The market's expectation for the interest - rate cut amplitude at the September meeting increased significantly [1][9]. Economy - In August, the US Markit manufacturing PMI increased significantly to 53.0, returning above 50 and indicating that the manufacturing industry moved from the contraction range in July to the expansion range [2][10]. - In August, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected but up 0.7 points from the previous value [2][10]. - In August, the US Markit services PMI was lower than expected and declined from the previous value, but it was still above 50, indicating that the service industry was still in a good expansion state [2][10]. - In August, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI rebounded above expectations, reaching 52.0 and remaining above 50 for three consecutive months [2][10]. - The US EIA crude oil inventory this week increased significantly to 2.415 million barrels, far exceeding the expected - 2.000 million barrels and the previous value of - 2.392 million barrels [2][10]. 3.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review US - From August 29 to September 5, 2025, the 1 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields dropped by 18bp and 13bp respectively, to 3.05% and 4.1%. Employment data put pressure on the market, and the Fed's attitude remains cautious. The market's expectation for a 50bp interest - rate cut at the September meeting has heated up again, but the possibility is still low. Multiple 25bp interest - rate cuts this year are more likely, and the possibility of consecutive interest - rate cuts is small [3][11]. Europe and Japan - The Japanese bond market was stable with small fluctuations. The 1 - year and 10 - year Japanese bond yields fluctuated by - 0.34bp and - 0.8bp respectively, to 0.7% and 1.62%. - The German bond market was also stable. The 2 - year and 10 - year German bond yields fluctuated by 3.00bp and 0bp respectively, to 1.96% and 2.71% [3][14]. 3.3 Other Asset Class Reviews Equity - Global stock markets were mixed. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (+1.36%), the US NASDAQ (+1.14%), and the Indian Sensex30 (+1.13%) led the gains, supported by the rebound of the technology and financial sectors. In contrast, the German DAX (-1.28%), A - shares (-1.18%), and the Vietnamese VN30 (-1.07%) declined significantly, mainly affected by macro - economic and capital - market pressures, and European markets were generally under pressure [4][15]. Commodity - Precious metals performed brightly. London silver rose by 5.01%, and London gold rose by 4.82% this week, breaking through the historical high of $3,587 per ounce, highlighting the surge in market risk - aversion demand. Crude oil and agricultural products generally declined, while some black - series commodities rose slightly. Bitcoin rebounded by 2.12%, showing a polarized risk preference [4][16]. Foreign Exchange - Non - US and non - European currencies have generally weakened against the RMB. The US dollar and the euro exchange rates against the RMB rose by 0.08% and 0.10% respectively, while the Japanese yen, Russian ruble, and Indian rupee exchange rates against the RMB fell by 0.71%, 1.14%, and 0.62% respectively [4][17]. 3.4 Market Tracking The report provides multiple charts, including the US Treasury auction panel, FED WATCH latest target - rate expectations, the simulated trends of the US dollar, US stocks, US Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin, the trends of global major stock indices, the weekly changes in bond yields of major global economies, the weekly changes in major commodities, the weekly changes in major foreign exchange rates against the RMB, and the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [12][13][19][20][22][26][29][32][39][46].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the newly listed electronic convertible bonds have the highest quantity among newly issued convertible bonds, with eight bonds currently available, and their conversion value is relatively high, indicating strong potential for stock price appreciation [1][9] - The report identifies a concern regarding the high premium rates of these convertible bonds, with some, like Dinglong and Anke, exceeding 40% as of September 5, and most others above 30% [1][9] - The analysis suggests that evaluating the current investment value of these convertible bonds requires assessing whether the premium rates are excessively high and if there is room for further increases, as well as the risk of premium compression when entering the conversion period [1][9][10] Group 2 - The report indicates that while the valuation of electronic convertible bonds is currently high, it has not reached the peak levels seen in the third quarter of 2022, suggesting some potential for further appreciation [2][10] - It notes that the high premium rates of newly issued convertible bonds are primarily due to their longer remaining terms and the high time value of options, as well as supply-demand dynamics in the market [10][11] - The report emphasizes that if these convertible bonds enter the conversion period, there may be selling pressure from investors, which could impact the premium rates negatively [10][12] Group 3 - The weekly strategy section suggests that despite a recent high valuation adjustment, the convertible bond market is likely to remain attractive due to ample liquidity in the equity market and strong bullish sentiment among investors [4][24] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with high growth potential, such as technology and high-end manufacturing, and suggests specific convertible bonds to watch, including Zhengfan, Anji, and Xingsui in the technology sector, and Tian 23 and Jing'ao in the new energy sector [4][25] - It also mentions that the adjustment in valuations may renew interest from external funds and investors who previously reduced their positions, potentially leading to a rebound in convertible bond prices [4][24]

钢铁周报 20250907 环保限产下供需双弱，关注旺季修复情况 2025 年 09 月 07 日 ➢ 价格：本周钢材价格涨跌互现。截至 9 月 5 日，上海 20mm HRB400 材质 螺纹价格为 3260 元/吨，较上周升 10 元/吨。高线 8.0mm 价格为 3400 元/吨， 较上周降 10 元/吨。热轧 3.0mm 价格为 3420 元/吨，较上周升 20 元/吨。冷轧 1.0mm 价格为 3800 元/吨，较上周降 20 元/吨。普中板 20mm 价格为 3460 元 /吨，较上周降 30 元/吨。本周原材料中，国产矿市场价格稳中有升，进口矿市 场价格稳中有升，废钢价格下跌。 ➢ 利润：本周钢材利润下降。长流程方面，我们测算本周行业螺纹钢、热轧和 冷轧毛利分别环比前一周变化-46 元/吨，-38 元/吨和-36 元/吨。短流程方面， 本周电炉钢毛利环比前一周变化-21 元/吨。 ➢ 产量与库存：截至 9 月 5 日，五大钢材产量下降，总库存环比上升。产量方 面，本周五大钢材品种产量 861 万吨，环比降 23.96 万吨，其中建筑钢材产量周 环比减 4.18 万吨，板材产量周环比降 19.78 ...

Group 1: Employment Data Insights - August non-farm payroll data is crucial as it precedes the September interest rate decision, with market expectations already adjusted for potential weakness[3] - Key indicators such as ADP, manufacturing PMI, and job openings have pointed towards a slowdown in the labor market, setting the stage for weaker August non-farm data[3] - The risk of significant downward revisions to annual benchmark data in early September raises concerns about the accuracy of employment statistics, which may lead to further market sensitivity towards data adjustments[4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The anticipated downward revision of August non-farm data could trigger the Federal Reserve to consider a 50 basis point rate cut, with expectations for two rate cuts by year-end remaining the baseline scenario[4] - Powell's indication of a shift in monetary policy at the Jackson Hole meeting has made a September rate cut almost certain, with the threshold for not cutting rates becoming increasingly high[4] - Despite the potential for downward revisions, the current labor market indicators, such as unemployment rates and wage growth, do not show significant deterioration, suggesting a more cautious approach to rate cuts[5] Group 3: Labor Market Trends - The August ADP employment change fell sharply to 54,000 from a previous 104,000, indicating a notable slowdown in job creation[7] - Job openings decreased to 7.181 million, down by 176,000 month-over-month, reflecting a significant drop in hiring demand[7] - The ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals fell below 1.0 for the first time since April 2021, signaling a weakening labor market[8]

[Table_Author] 海外市场点评 没有货币，财政又变成问题？ 2025 年 09 月 05 日 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 分析师：邵翔 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525030001 执业证号：S0100524080007 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：linyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：shaoxiang@glms.com.cn 研究助理：武朔 执业证号：S0100125070003 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn ➢ 白宫关税行政令被判违法，对市场最直观的影响就是通胀预期的下修，以及 美联储宽松预期的上修。这为杰克逊霍尔会议后的市场主线——衰退&宽松交易 在犹豫半月左右，再添一份助力。但另一条被市场忽略已久的"暗线"有可能也 按耐不住了：对前期减税法案带来的宽财政预期的担忧。如果没关税收入"助攻"， 美国的宽财政要怎么做？白宫怎么压住"蠢蠢欲动"的长端美债收益率？ ➢ 我们不妨做一个极端情景的测算，如果白宫在最高法维持"违法"判定下， 最终不得不取消对等和芬太尼关税，按照 CBP 的数据测算，4-7 月相关关税收入 约 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, recommending specific companies based on their performance and market conditions [7][8]. Core Insights - The coal market experienced a decline in prices during the first half of 2025, with an average price of 675.7 CNY/ton for thermal coal, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8% [3][14]. - A rebound in coal prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to increased demand and supply constraints, potentially returning to levels seen in Q3 2024 [4][29]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in production from both domestic and international sources, with a year-on-year decrease in coal production from major exporting countries [18][24]. Market Review - In H1 2025, thermal coal prices continued to decline, with Q2 prices hitting a low of 631.6 CNY/ton, down 25.6% year-on-year [3][14]. - The average price of coking coal also saw a significant drop, with the main coking coal price at 1377.67 CNY/ton, down 38.79% year-on-year [3][14]. Industry Outlook - The report forecasts a price recovery driven by supply reductions and seasonal demand increases, with expectations for prices to return to Q3 2024 levels [4][29]. - Supply-side constraints are expected to persist, with an estimated annual reduction of 230 million tons due to stricter production regulations [24][25]. - Non-electric demand, particularly from the coal chemical sector, is projected to grow, providing additional support for coal prices [29][30]. Fund Holdings - In Q2 2025, most listed companies in the coal sector saw an increase in fund holdings compared to Q1, with notable increases for companies like Huabei Mining and Xinjie Energy [5][34]. Half-Year Report Summary - The coal sector's total revenue in H1 2025 decreased by 18.8% year-on-year, with the thermal coal sub-sector experiencing a 16.6% decline [36][37]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 32% year-on-year, with the coking coal sub-sector facing the steepest decline of 60.1% [38].

➢ 风险提示：客户销量不及预期、域控业务不及预期、收购不及预期的风险等。 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] ➢ 智驾子公司收购 新产品、新客户不断突破。公司拟以现金 3.45 亿元收购科 博达智能科技 60%股权，标的公司主营安全、高性能的汽车智能中央算力平台及 相关域控制器产品，具备行业前沿的软件算法、硬件设计和生产制造能力，标的 公司截至 20250731 资产总额 7.79 亿元/净资产 0.75 亿元，2025 年 1-7 月实 现收入 2.99 亿元、净利润-0.35 亿元，亏损主要系研发投入较大、固定资产投入 前置，导致阶段性亏损，但盈利能力相比 2024 年显著提升，我们看好本次收购 对上市公司技术、产品、客户的完善：1）充足在手订单支撑未来增长：科博达 智能科技已开发出汽车智能中央算力平台、智能驾驶域控制器等产品，并定点国 内、国际主流品牌在内的 4 家客户、生命周期销售额预计超 200 亿元；2）业绩 承诺凸显发展信心：出售方承诺 2025 年 8-12 月、2026-2030 年度科博达智能 科技累计实现净利润不低于 6.3 亿元，对应年化利润约 1.16 亿元，本次收购 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned for significant growth with the completion of the acquisition of Xinjiang Meisheng, which is expected to enhance its gold and copper production capabilities [2]. - The anticipated restart of interest rate cuts in the U.S. is expected to drive gold prices higher, benefiting the company's revenue [2]. - The company is projected to turn profitable in 2024 and enter a high growth phase in 2025, with substantial increases in revenue and net profit forecasted for the coming years [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, Western Gold, is a major player in the gold mining sector in Xinjiang, China, and has expanded into manganese and beryllium through acquisitions [1][10]. - The company has a total gold resource of 32.1 tons and a manganese resource of 1,136 tons, with ongoing projects aimed at increasing production capacity [1][22]. 2. Core Assets - The company has significant assets in Xinjiang, including the Katerba Asu gold-copper mine, which has a gold resource of 78.73 tons and is expected to start production in late 2025 [2][52]. - The company’s gold production is expected to increase significantly, with plans to produce 1.79 tons in 2025 [23]. 3. Industry Outlook - The report highlights a favorable outlook for gold prices due to anticipated monetary easing and increased demand from central banks [2][3]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from these trends, with a diversified portfolio that includes gold, manganese, and beryllium [1][2]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 9.04 billion yuan in 2025 to 14.58 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit expected to increase from 469 million yuan to 2.44 billion yuan in the same period [3][4]. - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease significantly from 53 in 2025 to 10 in 2027, indicating strong earnings growth potential [3][4].

国防军工行业 2025 年半年报业绩回顾 "业绩底"筑基，上游环节和兵器板块实现增长 2025 年 09 月 04 日 ➢ 核心观点 1H25，民生军工成分（不含舰船）营业总收入同比增长 7.5%；归母净利润 同比下滑 19.8%。其中，2Q25 营业总收入同比增长 17.1%/环比增长 59.2%； 归母净利润同比下滑 9.5%/环比增长 91.2%。我们观点如下：1）2023~2024 年 行业需求不振导致业绩承压；2025 年以来需求好转，1H25 营收同比已经开始 增长。2）降价、减值等是影响利润的核心因素，因此 1H25 行业营收端和利润 端出现"非线性"变化，而这种情况将对业绩预测带来很大不确定性。3）2025 年是行业"业绩底"，收入端率先体现。4）产业链不同环节交付顺序、确收周期 等有差异，因此 1H25 上游营收同比增长，但中游营收仍同比下滑。 ➢ 趋势分析 2Q25 业绩环比改善幅度好于 2Q24 同期；盈利能力持续承压。1）收入端： 2025 年以来行业需求恢复，在 1H25 的营收端已有所体现，预计全年营收端将 保持增长。2）利润端：3Q23~2Q25，行业归母净利润连续 8 个季度同 ...