1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In 2025, new features have emerged in local government bond issuance, including longer issuance terms, a higher proportion of self - reviewed and self - issued regions, more distinct differential pricing between general and special bonds as well as callable and non - callable bonds, and a continuous increase in the proportion of over - priced issuances with significant differentiation in issuance spreads across different terms. - When selecting VAT local government bonds, one can consider calculating the implied VAT rate through the valuation of similar old bonds and using the traditional primary - secondary market spread method [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 New Features in Local Government Bond Issuance 3.1.1 Longer Issuance Terms and Higher Proportion of Self - Reviewed and Self - Issued Regions - As of September 7, 2025, the issuance terms of local government bonds have been further extended compared to 2024, mainly due to a significant increase in the supply of ultra - long - term local government bonds, with the proportion rising from 42.71% to 48.63%. - The change in the supply of local government bonds of different terms has affected the liquidity in the secondary market. Since the end of 2024, the turnover rates of 15Y, 20Y, and 30Y local government bonds have significantly increased, especially the monthly turnover rate of 30Y bonds has remained above 10%. - The proportion of bonds issued by self - reviewed and self - issued regions has further increased to 61.04%, indicating that the quota allocation of local government bonds is tilted towards regions with well - prepared projects and high investment efficiency [1][8][22]. 3.1.2 More Distinct Differential Pricing between General and Special Bonds, Callable and Non - Callable Bonds - In 2025, the pricing difference between general and special bonds is more obvious, with the proportion of different coupon rates reaching 47.41%. Among them, 50% of special bonds have a coupon rate up to 3bp higher than general bonds, which is consistent with the secondary - market spread. - The issuance scale of callable bonds in 2025 is only 27 billion yuan, accounting for only 3%. The pricing difference between callable and non - callable bonds is also significant, with the proportion of different coupon rates reaching 56.67%, and 50% of the differences are within 3bp [24][26][31]. 3.1.3 Continuous Increase in the Proportion of Over - Priced Issuances and Significant Differentiation in Issuance Spreads across Different Terms - In 2025, the spread between local government bond issuance rates and treasury bond rates has widened to over 20bp, while the average bid spread has remained around 5bp, leading to a continuous increase in the proportion of over - priced issuances. - Since August 2025, affected by the coupon VAT policy, the market - oriented issuance of local government bonds has been further enhanced. Currently, the issuance spreads of bonds with a term of 3Y and above are relatively consistent with secondary - market spreads, and sometimes the issuance spreads are higher, increasing the value of individual bonds and providing more trading opportunities [34][35][37]. 3.2 How to Select VAT Local Government Bonds 3.2.1 Calculating the Implied VAT Rate through the Valuation of Similar Old Bonds - As of September 8, 2025, 278 VAT local government bonds have been issued, with a cumulative issuance of 1.097135 trillion yuan, averaging 394.7 million yuan per bond. - If the implied VAT rate calculated through the valuation of similar old bonds exceeds 3%, it indicates that the issuance rate takes tax into account and is at least non - loss for funds. When the implied VAT rate at issuance is higher than 6%, the yield of VAT new bonds has downward space. One can focus on bonds such as 25 Ningxia Bond 21, 22, 26 - 29 issued on September 8 but not yet listed [59][70]. 3.2.2 Traditional Primary - Secondary Market Spread - If the spread between the issuance rate of local government bonds and the secondary - market valuation of similar bonds is greater than 0, it indicates that the issuance rate is relatively high, and the new bonds have a safety margin or excess return space. - Currently, one can focus on 30Y bonds such as 25 Ningxia Bond 30, 25 Guangdong Bond 48 - 54 and 10Y bond 25 Dalian Bond 32 issued on September 8 but not yet listed. Bonds with terms of 3Y, 7Y, 20Y, and 30Y are also worth attention if the spread between their issuance rates and treasury bond rates is greater than the secondary - market spread [74].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the biodiesel industry, indicating a relative performance within -5% to 5% compared to the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in SAF prices, with the CIF price reaching $2746.53 per ton, a 5.61% increase week-on-week. HVO prices also saw a rise of 1.44% to $2353.75 per ton [3]. - Domestic prices for waste cooking oil and gutter oil have risen, with average prices reported at 7220 CNY per ton and 6740 CNY per ton, respectively, both showing a week-on-week increase of 100 CNY [3]. - Shell has officially canceled its plan to build an 820,000-ton/year biodiesel facility in Rotterdam due to insufficient competitiveness, marking a shift back to traditional fossil fuel production [4]. - The Philippines has postponed its B4 biodiesel blending plan to at least 2026 due to rising coconut oil prices and supply concerns [4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - SAF CIF price reached $2746.53 per ton, up 5.61% week-on-week - HVO FOB price at $2353.75 per ton, up 1.44% week-on-week - Domestic gutter oil price at 6740 CNY per ton, up 100 CNY week-on-week - Domestic waste cooking oil price at 7220 CNY per ton, up 100 CNY week-on-week [3] Industry Developments - Shell cancels biodiesel facility in Rotterdam due to market conditions - Philippines delays B4 biodiesel blending plan to 2026 due to coconut oil supply issues [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant biodiesel or raw material production capacity, including Zhuoyue New Energy, Jiaao Environmental Protection, Shanggou Environmental Energy, Haineng Science and Technology, and Langkun Environment [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the wind power gearbox industry, suggesting a focus on companies like Weili Transmission, Guoda Special Materials, and Delijia [4][38]. Core Insights - The demand side shows robust growth in both onshore and offshore wind power bidding, with a total public bidding capacity of approximately 164.1 GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 90%. The average bidding price for wind turbine units was 1616 RMB/kW, reflecting a 10% increase year-on-year [1][9]. - The supply side indicates a high concentration in the wind gearbox industry, with the top four manufacturers holding a combined market share of 79% in 2023. The industry has significant barriers to entry, including technological, financial, and validation barriers [2][34]. - The global wind gearbox market is projected to grow from 5.941 billion USD in 2024 to 7.824 billion USD by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.70% [27][29]. Demand Side Summary - The domestic wind power bidding is thriving, with onshore bids reaching 152.8 GW (up 97% year-on-year) and offshore bids at 11.3 GW (up 27% year-on-year) in 2024. The first half of 2025 saw an additional 71.9 GW in new bids, marking an 8.8% increase [1][9]. - The shift towards larger wind turbines has led to a structural increase in demand for gearboxes, as major manufacturers transition from direct-drive to semi-direct or doubly-fed systems [1][25]. Supply Side Summary - The wind gearbox industry has high entry barriers due to the need for advanced technology and significant capital investment. The top four manufacturers dominate the market, indicating a stable competitive landscape [2][34]. - The gearbox accounts for about 15% of the total cost of wind turbines, making it a critical component in the wind power generation process [31][34]. Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - Weili Transmission is recognized for its long-standing expertise in precision transmission and is expanding its gearbox production capacity with a new smart factory project [39]. - Guoda Special Materials is focusing on integrated supply for gearbox components and has seen significant revenue growth, with a 187% increase in gearbox component revenue in 2024 [44]. - Delijia is positioned as a leading manufacturer in the wind gearbox sector, with plans for an IPO and significant market share in both global and Chinese markets [50].

Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on companies with production elasticity and cost advantages, specifically highlighting藏格矿业, 中矿资源, 永兴材料, 盐湖股份, and 雅化集团 as key investment targets [3][66]. Core Insights - The Australian lithium market is experiencing a supply adjustment with four major mines currently offline, leading to a total production capacity reduction of approximately 750,000 tons (94,000 tons LCE), which constitutes 14% of Australia's total lithium production capacity [3][13]. - The report anticipates that the lithium price has reached a bottom, and the new supply adjustments may significantly improve the industry landscape, potentially stimulating upward price elasticity [3][13]. - The report indicates that apart from Greenbushes and Pilgangoora, most Australian mines are facing substantial operational pressures, with cash costs increasing for several projects [2][10]. Summary by Sections Australian Mining Overview - As of Q2 2025, Australian lithium concentrate production is estimated at approximately 1.13 million tons, a 23% increase quarter-on-quarter, but the supply growth is below expectations [1][8]. - The production increases are primarily driven by the successful ramp-up of the Pilgangoora P1000 project and improved output from Wodgina [1][8]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - Greenbushes reported a cash cost of AUD 366 per ton, up 7% quarter-on-quarter, while Pilgangoora's cash cost decreased by 10% to AUD 619 per ton due to increased production [2][10]. - Marion's cash cost rose to AUD 717 per ton, while Wodgina's cash cost decreased to AUD 641 per ton, reflecting operational improvements [2][10]. Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The report predicts that by 2025, Australian lithium production will be approximately 448,000 tons LCE, a 4% decrease year-on-year, with expectations of further production increases in 2026 and 2027 [3][14]. - The report emphasizes that the operational pressures on existing mines may lead to further production cuts, particularly under current lithium price conditions [3][13]. Key Company Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with藏格矿业 projected to have an EPS of 1.64 in 2024 and a PE of 34, while中矿资源 is expected to have an EPS of 1.05 and a PE of 42 [4][66]. -雅化集团, 永兴材料, and 盐湖股份 are also highlighted with favorable EPS and PE ratios, indicating strong investment potential [4][66].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, highlighting that this collaboration will facilitate liquidity management by the central bank, even with potential increases in bond supply [2][10] - The central bank's holdings of government bonds have decreased from a peak of 2.88 trillion yuan to 2.29 trillion yuan, indicating a gradual reduction in long-term liquidity [2][10] - The current 10-year government bond yield has risen close to 20 basis points from its low, providing room for the central bank to resume government bond trading operations [2][10] Group 2 - As of September 14, the cumulative issuance of replacement bonds reached 1.951 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 97.55%, while new general bonds and special bonds have also seen significant issuance [4][18] - The report notes that the issuance plan for local government bonds in September is 679.7 billion yuan, with expectations of a noticeable decline in government bond supply starting in October [4][18] - The report identifies three opportunities for narrowing the yield spread between local government bonds and national bonds, including the potential for lower issuance rates and reduced supply [5][19] Group 3 - The liquidity in the market remains comfortable, with key money market rates such as DR001 and R001 maintaining levels between 1.31-1.36% [3][20] - The report indicates that the total maturity of interbank certificates of deposit has surged to 1.2098 trillion yuan, leading to increased pressure on renewals [3][20] - The central bank's open market operations have seen a net withdrawal of 12.047 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing liquidity management efforts [31][32] Group 4 - The report tracks government bond issuance, noting that from September 1 to September 7, national bonds issued amounted to 349.07 billion yuan, with net financing of 169.83 billion yuan [38][42] - The expected issuance of national bonds from September 8 to September 14 is 491 billion yuan, with net financing projected at 340.22 billion yuan [38][42] - Local government bonds issued during the same period are expected to total 301.67 billion yuan, with a significant portion attributed to refinancing [38][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The comprehensive quantitative model remains bearish overall. The intensity of the current "watch stocks, trade bonds" market since late July exceeds that of other periods in the past three years, and it may become a new trend rather than a short - term shock [1][2][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Performance 3.1.1 Secondary Market Trends This week, the yield curve fluctuated within a narrow range. The medium - and short - term interest rates of Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds declined. The short - term interest rates of Agricultural Development Bank bonds and Export - Import Bank bonds declined significantly. The 30 - year Treasury bond yield declined by the largest margin of - 2.5BP, and the yield of China Development Bank bonds around the 6 - year mark declined by the largest margin of - 2.4BP [1][5]. 3.1.2 Primary Market Trends This week, 5 Treasury bonds, 8 China Development Bank bonds, 6 Agricultural Development Bank bonds, and 1 Export - Import Bank bond were issued. Among Treasury bonds, the 1 - month 25 Discount Treasury Bond 54 had a high full - subscription multiple of 3.08 times. Among policy - financial bonds, the 7 - year 25 China Development Bank Clean - issued Bond 04 had a high full - subscription multiple of 5.51 times. The overall full - subscription multiples of Agricultural Development Bank bonds and Export - Import Bank bonds were relatively low [14]. 3.2 Latest Results of Each Calculation Model The comprehensive signal model has been bearish since July 10, 2025. As of September 5, the long - short ratio model and the fund duration model are bullish, while the rest are bearish. This week, the fund duration model changed from bearish to bullish on September 3 [18][20][29]. 3.3 Recent Behavioral Characteristics of Each Institution This week, the rolling cumulative net purchases of 10 - year policy - financial bonds, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds by funds continued to rise. Fund companies' net purchases of 10 - year policy - financial bonds and 30 - year Treasury bonds increased significantly. Rural commercial banks changed from cumulative net purchases to cumulative net sales of 10 - year policy - financial bonds and 30 - year Treasury bonds. Securities companies changed from net sales to net purchases of 3 types of long - term interest - rate bonds [2][31][39]. 3.4 Recent Stock - Bond Correlation Performance Under the influence of the good performance of the equity market recently, the bond market has been weak overall. From July 22 to September 5, the correlation coefficient between stocks and bonds remained at a high level, lasting for 34 trading days with a total upward amplitude of 15.9BP. This market may become a new trend [45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the 3C equipment sector, suggesting that the sector is likely to enter a period of high prosperity due to Apple's new manufacturing plan and product innovation cycle [3][40]. Core Insights - Apple has announced a new "Made in America" initiative, committing to invest a total of $600 billion in the U.S. over the next four years, marking the largest investment in the U.S. in Apple's history [1][10]. - The new product innovation cycle is expected to begin, with the introduction of multiple new products, including the iPhone 17 series, which will feature a thinner design and may eliminate the SIM card slot in most markets, pushing for a transition to eSIM technology [2][14]. - The return of production lines to the U.S. and the upcoming new products are anticipated to boost demand for 3C equipment, leading to a favorable market environment for domestic 3C equipment companies [3][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Apple's "Made in America" Initiative - Apple has increased its investment in the U.S. by an additional $100 billion, totaling $600 billion, to accelerate production domestically [1][10]. - The initiative involves collaboration with ten U.S. companies, including Corning and Applied Materials, to enhance local manufacturing capabilities [12][13]. 2. New Product Innovation Cycle - Apple is set to launch several new products, including the iPhone 17 Air, which will replace the Plus model and focus on a lightweight design [2][14]. - Future product plans include significant design innovations for iPhones, such as foldable models and all-glass designs, as well as new entries into smart home devices and augmented reality products [2][21]. 3. 3C Equipment Sector Outlook - The report highlights that the demand for 3C equipment is expected to rise due to Apple's manufacturing plans and the introduction of new products [3][22]. - Key domestic 3C equipment companies mentioned include: - **Bohong Precision**: Focused on automation equipment and has secured orders for new AR/MR production equipment [23][26]. - **Lian De Equipment**: A leading supplier of semiconductor display automation equipment, benefiting from the rise in flexible AMOLED usage [27][28]. - **Lian Win Laser**: Known for precision laser welding equipment, with increasing orders for small steel shell battery welding devices [31][32]. - **Jie Put**: A pioneer in optical detection and laser processing equipment, with significant revenue growth [31][35]. - **Genesis**: A leader in high-end CNC machine tools, recognized for its drilling and tapping machines in the 3C sector [34][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Shengquan Group and Hailide, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the chemical industry [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong half-year performance, particularly Shengquan Group, which benefits from the AI capital investment in new materials, and Hailide, a leader in the polyester industrial yarn sector, which is expected to gain from the US tariff conflicts [1][3]. - The phosphate fertilizer export window is open, with high demand expected to continue, alleviating domestic overcapacity issues and supporting profitability for large phosphate chemical companies like Yuntianhua [1]. - The report highlights the potential for the pesticide industry to improve due to increased safety regulations following recent chemical accidents, which may lead to the elimination of non-compliant production capacities [2]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Overview - The basic chemical industry index closed at 4009.06 points, down 1.36% from the previous week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.55% [9]. - Among 462 stocks in the chemical sector, 31% saw weekly gains while 68% experienced declines [17]. Key Chemical Products - The report tracks 380 chemical products, with 64 experiencing price increases and 95 seeing declines. Notable price increases were observed in products like methyl isobutyl ketone and paraquat [20]. - The top ten products with price increases included methyl isobutyl ketone (up 10%) and paraquat (up 7%) [21]. Focus on Key Sub-industries - In the polyester filament sector, prices remained stable with slight increases noted in various filament types, while the market sentiment remains cautious due to weak downstream demand [23][24]. - The tire industry reported a decrease in operating rates, with full steel tire rates at 60.85% and semi-steel tire rates at 65.87%, reflecting a decline in production activity [32]. - The refrigerant market showed strong price performance, particularly for R22 and R134a, driven by stable demand and limited supply [41][42]. Company Performance Forecast - Shengquan Group is projected to have an EPS of 1.53 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 20, while Hailide is expected to have an EPS of 0.37 and a PE ratio of 17, both receiving a "Buy" recommendation [3].

九方智投控股（09636.HK）深度报告 To C 流量精准转化与科技赋能下的高成长性 2025 年 09 月 08 日 ➢ 九方智投控股：凭借科技驱动的智能化投顾服务，在中国在线投资决策解决 方案市场中占据领先地位。公司深耕证券投资咨询领域，通过 AI 技术、大数据 分析、智能化投顾体系及 MCN 流量运营，形成了独特的商业模式。近年来，公 司积极推动业务模式升级，深化 To C 端流量精准转化，并通过科技赋能优化投 资者体验。公司股东结构稳定，管理团队经验丰富，为企业长期发展奠定了坚实 基础。同时，公司持续加大在投研、科技、流量运营等关键领域的投入，提升市 场竞争力。 ➢ 公司业务规模持续扩张，盈利能力在市场环境影响下有所波动，但成本优化 和现金流管理成效显著。公司营业收入快速增长，2019 至 2023 年复合增长率 达 63.7%，2024 年全年收入达 23.0 亿元，同比增长 17.4%。受市场活跃度变 化影响，公司净利润呈周期性波动，2023 年归母净利润为 1.9 亿元，同比下降 58.5%，2024 年回升至 2.7 亿元，同比增长 42.4%；2025H1 归母净利润进一 步回升至 8.7 ...

Export Performance - In August, China's export growth rate (in USD) was 4.4%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Exports to ASEAN increased by 22.5%, marking the highest level this year, indicating strong supply chain advantages[4] - Exports to the EU rose to 10.4%, while exports to Africa and India also showed positive growth rates of 25.9% and 9.1% respectively[4][18] Import Trends - August's import growth rate was 1.3%, also down by 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting weak domestic demand[3] - Key imports such as iron ore, steel, and refined oil saw significant declines, with refined oil down by 27.9% and coal down by 35.9%[7] - The import of high-tech products like integrated circuits and machine tools remained strong, but general trade imports turned negative, indicating a need for further recovery in domestic demand[7][23] Economic Implications - The trade surplus is expected to continue supporting GDP growth amid weak import performance and new export momentum[3] - The overall economic growth momentum in the second half of the year remains uncertain, with the need for further stimulation of domestic demand highlighted[3][8]