Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a wholesale sales volume of 116,000 units in August 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.3% and a month-on-month increase of 10.7%. Cumulative wholesale sales from January to August reached 790,000 units, up 5.9% year-on-year [3]. - The Tank brand showed strong performance with wholesale sales of 20,000 units in August, up 22.5% year-on-year. The new Tank 500Hi4-T/Hi4-Z was launched on August 27, with over 12,000 pre-orders within two hours of its release [4]. - The Haval brand continued to perform well, with August wholesale sales of 69,000 units, an increase of 22.7% year-on-year. The Haval Big Dog PLUS was also pre-sold at the Chengdu Auto Show, with over 10,000 pre-orders in 24 hours [5]. - The company's overseas sales also increased, with 45,000 units sold in August, up 11.6% year-on-year. The Brazilian factory commenced operations in August, which is expected to enhance sales in Latin America [5]. Financial Forecasts - The company expects revenue to reach CNY 240.58 billion in 2025, CNY 291.09 billion in 2026, and CNY 334.75 billion in 2027. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be CNY 13.25 billion in 2025, CNY 20.18 billion in 2026, and CNY 23.30 billion in 2027 [6][7]. - The report forecasts a PE ratio of 17 for 2025, 11 for 2026, and 10 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 863 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 15.3 billion yuan [1] - The reduction in investment losses from Sichuan Airlines and the decline in oil prices contributed to the improvement in financial performance [3] - The company is optimistic about the profit potential of its all-cargo aircraft and the recovery of ticket prices in the industry [4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 429 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with a net loss of 7.9 billion yuan [1] - The overall passenger revenue decline narrowed to 4.9% in Q2 2025, with domestic and international passenger kilometer revenue declines of -3.9% and -8.0%, respectively [2] - The logistics subsidiary, China Southern Airlines Logistics, generated a revenue of 94.0 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [2] Cost and Profitability Analysis - In Q2 2025, the unit cost decreased by 5.4% year-on-year, while the unit fuel cost decreased by 22% [3] - The company recorded a pre-tax profit of 6.0 billion yuan in H1 2025, up from 1.6 billion yuan in H1 2024, despite a significant increase in income tax expenses [3] - The report forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.4 billion yuan for 2025, with projections of 42.4 billion yuan and 76.7 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China National Airlines (601111.SH) [4][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 80.8 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.81 billion yuan, an improvement from a loss of 2.78 billion yuan in H1 2024 [1] - The decline in oil prices has alleviated the pressure from rising costs, contributing to a better profit performance despite a challenging pricing environment in domestic routes [1][2] - The company is actively adjusting its pricing strategy in response to market conditions, leading to a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% in domestic passenger kilometer revenue [2] - Financial expenses have improved due to a reduction in dollar-denominated debt and a decrease in interest expenses, with a 27% year-on-year decline in financial costs [3] Financial Forecasts - The projected revenue for 2025 is 179.3 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.6% [5][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.04 billion yuan in 2025, a significant increase from a loss of 237 million yuan in 2024 [5][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.06 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 125 [5][11] Additional Insights - The company plans to increase its investment in Shenzhen Airlines to address its financial difficulties, which is expected to enhance operational capabilities and improve the overall competitiveness of the airline network [3] - The report anticipates a recovery in industry pricing, although it has adjusted the net profit forecast for 2025 to 1.04 billion yuan due to subdued pricing data during the peak summer season [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Shengquan Group and Hailide. Both companies are expected to benefit from their respective market positions and macroeconomic factors [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong performance of Shengquan Group, a major domestic supplier of electronic resins for AI servers, which is expected to see a sequential increase in performance due to rising server shipments [1][3]. - Hailide, a leading company in the polyester industrial yarn sector, is highlighted for its advantages stemming from the US tariff conflicts, which are expected to enhance its profitability [1]. - The report notes that the export window for phosphate fertilizers has opened, with high demand anticipated to continue, benefiting large phosphate chemical companies like Yuntianhua [1]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical sector index closed at 4064.30 points, up 1.11% from the previous week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.60% [9]. - Key chemical products such as acrylic acid methyl ester and NYMEX natural gas saw significant price increases, with the former rising by 8% [17][18]. Key Chemical Sub-sectors - **Polyester Filament**: Prices have slightly increased, with POY averaging 6865 CNY/ton, up 80 CNY/ton from the previous week. The market remains cautious due to slow demand recovery [20][21]. - **Tire Industry**: The operating rate for the full steel tire sector is at 64.89%, showing a slight decrease, while raw material prices are experiencing fluctuations [32][37]. Fertilizer Sector - The report indicates that phosphate fertilizer exports are expected to alleviate domestic overcapacity issues, with the first batch of exports scheduled for peak periods from May to September [1]. Company Profit Forecasts - Shengquan Group is projected to have an EPS of 1.53 CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 22, while Hailide is expected to have an EPS of 0.37 CNY with a PE of 17 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [4][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.362 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.21%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 799 million yuan, up 13.80% year-on-year [1]. - The skincare segment showed steady growth, with revenue of 4.199 billion yuan in H1 2025, a slight increase of 0.20% year-on-year, while the beauty makeup segment grew by 25.79% to 837 million yuan [2]. - The company plans to list in Hong Kong to further its international strategy [1]. Financial Performance - The gross margin for H1 2025 increased by 3.56 percentage points to 73.38%, while the net profit margin rose by 0.86 percentage points [3]. - The main brand, Proya, generated 3.979 billion yuan in revenue, a slight decline of 0.08% year-on-year, while the sub-brand Cai Tang saw a revenue increase of 21.11% to 705 million yuan [4]. - The company forecasts net profits of 1.8 billion yuan, 2.08 billion yuan, and 2.35 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 15.9%, 15.3%, and 13.2% [4][6]. Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, online sales accounted for 95.39% of total revenue, amounting to 5.109 billion yuan, while offline sales decreased by 21.49% to 247 million yuan [2]. - The revenue from the hair care segment surged by 131.25% to 320 million yuan, indicating strong performance in this category [2]. Future Projections - The company expects revenue growth rates of 10.3%, 7.8%, and 6.5% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][9]. - The projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.54 yuan, 5.24 yuan, and 5.93 yuan, respectively [6][9]. Brand Development - The main brand Proya continues to enhance its brand strength, while other brands are also making significant progress, with Off&Relax being the fastest-growing brand, achieving a revenue of 279 million yuan, up 102.52% year-on-year [4].

（1）量化结论基于历史统计，如若未来市场环境发生变化不排除失效可能。 （2）政策对于信贷的引导可能领先于实物工作量表现，高频数据反应不及时可 能导致预测出现误差。 量化分析报告 2025 年 8 月社融预测：26928 亿元 2025 年 09 月 01 日 ➢ 我们从社融各子项的经济逻辑、高频数据、季节性特征等角度出发，于每月 月末进行社融预测。每月的社融数据通常由央行于次月 10-15 日公布，存在一定 的滞后性。在之前的报告《社融指标全解析与预测框架构建》中，我们构建了自 下而上的社融拆分预测框架，过去一段时间对社融的总量和结构给出了较为准确 的预测。 ➢ 预计 2025 年 8 月新增社融约为 2.69 万亿元，同比增加-0.34 万亿元，社 融 TTM 环比约为-0.91%；社融存量同比增速约为 8.88%。新增人民币信贷约 为 0.94 万亿元，同比减少 0.10 万亿元，其中居民中长贷新增 0.12 万亿元，企 业贷款和居民短贷增加 0.64 万亿元；政府债券净融资约 1.36 万亿元，同比减少 0.26 万亿元；企业债券净融资约 0.10 万亿元，同比减少 0.07 万亿元。 ➢ 从结构来看， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 560 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 120 million yuan, up 57.1% year-on-year [1]. - The growth in revenue is significantly driven by the poultry vaccine production capacity expansion and the performance of the pet product segment, which is gaining traction in the market [2][3]. - The company is actively enhancing strategic partnerships with large breeding groups to improve its market share in vaccines and chemical drugs, with innovative products contributing to revenue growth [2]. - The pet product segment is experiencing remarkable growth, with online sales increasing by over three times, reflecting the growing market for pet-related products [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the biological products revenue reached 401 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.17%. The revenue from poultry products grew by 30.01% to 259 million yuan, while pet products saw a 49.65% increase to 10 million yuan [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2025 to be 228 million yuan, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 0.66 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22 [4][5]. Market Trends - The pet industry is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to reach 404.2 billion yuan by 2027, driven by increasing consumer spending on pets [3]. - The company is focusing on both online and offline marketing strategies to promote its pet vaccines and related products, capitalizing on the growing trend of pet ownership [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in demand for animal health products as the market enters a consumption peak in the second half of 2025, supported by strong genetic engineering capabilities and ongoing vaccine development [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant increase in coal production in H1 2025, but faced a decline in revenue and net profit due to falling coal prices [1][2]. - Natural gas sales volume decreased, yet profitability improved, indicating a strategic reduction in operations to mitigate market risks [3]. - The coal chemical segment saw a decline in gross profit, primarily due to maintenance activities affecting the ethylene glycol project [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 15.748 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.70%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 853 million yuan, down 40.67% [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 6.846 billion yuan, with a significant drop in net profit to 159 million yuan, reflecting a 74.73% decline year-on-year [1]. Coal Production and Sales - The company achieved a coal production of 28.82 million tons in H1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 150.41%, while coal sales reached 27.64 million tons, up 75.97% [2]. - The average price of coal decreased, leading to a gross profit of 819 million yuan from coal operations, down 56.36% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 10.10% [2]. Natural Gas Operations - Natural gas sales volume fell to 1.522 billion cubic meters in H1 2025, a decrease of 30.12%, with a gross profit of 1.182 billion yuan, an increase of 77.62% [3]. - The gross margin for natural gas operations improved to 23.37%, up 13.57 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Coal Chemical Products - The production of key coal chemical products showed mixed results, with methanol production at 563,800 tons (down 2.52%) and ethylene glycol production at 40,500 tons (down 13.61%) [4]. - The coal chemical segment's gross profit was 665 million yuan, down 13.77%, with a gross margin of 29.03% [4]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1.721 billion yuan, 1.842 billion yuan, and 2.099 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.27, 0.29, and 0.33 yuan per share [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.77 CNY [7]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 3.198 billion, 612 million, and 587 million CNY respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 7.09%, 22.51%, and 23.31% [1]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by the strong performance of its flagship product, 97 Pure Draft, and an increasing focus on high-end beer sales [4]. - The report highlights the company's ability to outperform industry trends, with a projected revenue growth of 6.2%, 5.0%, and 4.1% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.971 billion CNY, with net profit and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 455 million and 441 million CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4.96%, 20.18%, and 18.80% respectively [1][2]. - The company’s beer revenue in H1 2025 grew by 7.8%, with volume and price increasing by 5% and 3% respectively [2][3]. Cost and Profitability - The company experienced a decrease in cost per ton by 2.8% in Q2 2025, primarily due to lower raw material prices, leading to an increase in gross margin by 3.0 percentage points [3]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 improved by 2.4 percentage points, supported by stable expense ratios [3]. Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the growth potential of 97 Pure Draft, particularly in the South China market, where consumer demand and product structure are favorable [4]. - The company plans to enhance its marketing strategies and expand its high-end product offerings to sustain growth [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.087 billion, 6.388 billion, and 6.648 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 973 million, 1.106 billion, and 1.214 billion CNY [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Viewpoints - The company's performance has shifted from profit to loss, primarily due to supply-demand mismatches in the industry and intensified competition leading to prices falling below cash costs. However, recent government initiatives aimed at reducing competition have shown early positive results, suggesting a potential rebound in performance as supply-side reforms continue [2]. - The average cash production cost of granular silicon has been decreasing, reaching 26.22 RMB/kg in the first half of 2025, with a further reduction to 25.31 RMB/kg in Q2 2025. The quality of products has significantly improved, with 91.8% of products meeting the standard of total metal impurities ≤1 ppbw, and the proportion of products with turbidity ≤70 NTU increasing from 25% in September 2024 to 57.4% in Q2 2025 [3]. - The company has successfully launched a GW-level perovskite production line, marking a significant milestone in the commercialization of perovskite photovoltaic technology. This project is noted for achieving several global records, including the largest single-junction and tandem perovskite modules and the highest efficiency for large-sized modules [4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 12.594 billion RMB, 21.309 billion RMB, and 24.398 billion RMB, respectively. Net profits are expected to be -2.375 billion RMB in 2025, 838 million RMB in 2026, and 2.189 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a recovery in profitability [5][7]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in the company's market share, which was 24.32% in the first half of 2025, up 9.74 percentage points from the previous year, as the photovoltaic industry undergoes capacity clearing and the company continues to lower production costs [3][5].