2025 年 5 月工业企业利润点评 5 月工业企业利润缘何大降？ 2025 年 06 月 27 日 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com ➢ 事件：国家统计局网站 6 月 27 日公布工业经济效益月度报告显示，1-5 月 份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 27204.3 亿元，同比下降 1.1%。 ➢ 虽然当前中美贸易冲突的风险已阶段性缓释，但在工业企业利润身上，来自 关税风波的影响才初步显现。工业企业同比增速从 4 月的 3.0%大幅转负至 5 月 的-9.1%，关税对企业利润的影响存在一定滞后性，美国加征关税对于企业盈利 的影响逐渐开始"具象化"。那么关税究竟对谁的影响最大？这份影响又会持续 多久？我们尝试通过 5 月工业企业利润这份"成绩单"来一探究竟： ➢ 除了价格之外，企业营收利润率对利润形成的拖累较大。若以量、价、利润 率对工业企业利润进行拆解来看，5 月表现为"量上价下、利润率负增"的形势， 这与 1-4 月的情形保持基本一致，但与此前不同的是，除了 PPI 降幅扩大导致价 格继续成为企业利润增速的拖累因子之外，企业营收利润率的下滑成为了 ...

计算机行业事件点评 6 月 24 日，在"智绘健康·创新融合——AI 赋能深圳市药械产业高质量发展大会 暨'医企向未来'AI 专场活动"上，深圳市药械办、市卫健委联合罗湖、南山、 龙岗三区及北京大学深圳医院等共同启动"临床千万人口场景赋能"平台，标志 着深圳在全国范围内率先构建起覆盖超大型城市全人群的 AI 医疗应用生态体 系。在近期发布的《深圳市 AI+医疗健康创新协同发展三年行动计划》中，明确 将开放覆盖千万人口的临床健康管理场景作为核心任务，重点推动 AI 技术在基 层医疗、慢病防控等领域的规模化应用。 ➢ 蚂蚁集团提前布局，探索 AI 医疗新路径。6 月 16 日，蚂蚁集团宣布与首都 医科大学附属北京友谊医院正式签署共建协议，双方将围绕 AI 医疗创新服务、 重大临床学科项目、科研数据共享等展开深度合作，探索 AI 医疗融合新范式。 2025 年 1 月，蚂蚁集团收购好大夫在线，共同做深优质医疗服务供给；3 月， 蚂蚁集团对外公布了其在医疗机构、医生、用户三端最新 AI 产品体系升级，持 续加码 AI 医疗。此次蚂蚁集团与首都医科大学附属北京友谊医院联合打造的消 化专科智能体"消化百事通"也已上线，用 ...

身处变局，结构求新 2025 年 06 月 26 日 金融工程 2025 中期策略展望 ➢ 黄金量化：对抗风险，继续持有。从驱动因素来看，当下财政因素继续占主 导。特朗普施政主张对通货膨胀与财政赤字有进一步扩张可能，但实施进度有待 观察。当下全球地缘政治风险与经济政策不确定性仍高，对促发黄金上涨有一定 作用。技术面测算当下已经历盘整积累支持目标价到 3885 美元/盎司。 ➢ 行业量化：轮动加速，机会分散。胜率赔率一致性继续减弱，短期轮动速度 或提高。从生命周期来看，长期配置成长期行业有更高的预期收益。生命周期模 型显示一级行业整体成长性不足，成长性整体分散在三级行业，其中基础化工细 分领域扩张特征明显。 ➢ 利率量化：寻觅资产，关注融资。国债利率跌破 2%，稳定在 1.6%-1.7%低 位，景气度的回升和信贷脉冲的回升抑制了利率的进一步下行。当下通胀资产持 有意愿再度疲软，叠加房地产 ROE 转负、高 ROE 行业杠杆率偏低，导致利率缺 乏上行动能。利率或延续底部震荡，突破需依赖高 ROE 高杠杆行业对资金需求 的拉动。 ➢ 风格量化：成长萌芽，关注预期。当下Δg 和Δgf 都有扩张，成长性的稀缺 度抬升， ...

Group 1: Policy Overview - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" primarily focuses on fiscal policy, with no intention of fiscal tightening from the Trump administration, as previously mentioned in reports[3]. - The bill includes tax cuts expected to increase the deficit by $3.8 trillion over ten years, extending and expanding key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)[4]. - Defense spending is set to increase by $144 billion over the next decade, with significant allocations for shipbuilding and missile defense[4]. Group 2: Fiscal Impact - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" will increase the deficit by $500 billion by 2026, raising the deficit-to-GDP ratio from 5.5% to 7.0%[4]. - Over the next ten years, the total deficit is expected to increase by $2.4 trillion, leading to an overall debt increase of $3 trillion, which could rise to $5 trillion if made permanent[4]. - The bill's provisions will result in a projected deficit of approximately 6.8% of GDP, potentially increasing to 7.8% if made permanent[4]. Group 3: Legislative Challenges - The bill faces significant hurdles in reconciling differences between the House and Senate, particularly regarding the SALT deduction cap and Medicaid cuts[5]. - The Senate's version proposes a higher debt ceiling of $5 trillion compared to the House's $4 trillion, indicating a divergence in fiscal strategy[5]. - Key disagreements include the treatment of temporary tax provisions, with the Senate favoring the permanentization of certain tax cuts[5]. Group 4: International Taxation - The controversial 889 clause aims to impose taxes on foreign entities benefiting from U.S. tax cuts, reflecting a shift from tariffs to international tax negotiations[8]. - The clause could generate an estimated $120 billion in additional tax revenue over the next decade, averaging $12 billion per year[11]. - The implementation of the 889 clause is set for January 1, 2027, but could be avoided if "violating countries" adjust their tax practices[11].

Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on the commercial rocket industry, indicating a significant turning point in 2025 for China's commercial rocket capabilities [3][28]. Core Insights - The commercial rocket industry in China is experiencing a notable shift towards commercialization, driven by policy support and an increase in private sector participation [1][9]. - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for China's commercial rocket sector, with improvements in launch site efficiency and the introduction of new reusable rocket technologies [2][28]. - The deployment of low Earth orbit communication constellations is expected to create substantial market demand for domestic commercial rockets, with specific companies highlighted for investment opportunities [3][28]. Summary by Sections 1. New Generation Commercial Rockets - The report emphasizes that China is on the verge of a significant increase in total rocket capacity, with both state-owned and private companies ramping up their launch activities [1][2]. - The number of commercial launch sites is increasing, with the Hainan commercial launch site and the Dongfang launch port now operational, enhancing launch frequency and efficiency [2][23]. - The report draws parallels with SpaceX's advancements, suggesting that China's heavy-lift rocket development is progressing steadily, with the Long March 9 expected to complete its first flight around 2030 [2][28]. 2. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies specific companies as key investment opportunities, including XW&G60, Xinke Mobile, Zhenyou Technology, Shanghai Hantong, and Haige Communication, due to their involvement in the commercial rocket sector [3][28]. - The report also highlights the potential for growth among suppliers of rocket components, such as Jiufeng Energy, Srey New Materials, and GaoHua Technology, as the industry expands [3][28]. 3. Industry Development - The report outlines the increasing number of rocket launches by private companies, which accounted for 17.65% of total launches in 2024, up from 7.81% in 2022, indicating a growing role for private enterprises in the sector [1][16]. - The report notes that the Long March series rockets are currently the primary vehicles for launching large satellite constellations, with specific missions detailed for various satellite groups [20][22]. - The report discusses the ongoing development of new launch sites and facilities, which are expected to support a higher frequency of launches in the coming years [26][27].

Group 1: Tax and Spending Provisions - The "Beautiful Bill" is expected to increase the deficit by $3.8 trillion over ten years due to tax cuts and spending increases[2] - The bill includes $1.44 trillion for defense spending over the next decade, with a focus on shipbuilding and missile defense[2] - Welfare spending cuts will target Medicaid, student loans, and food assistance programs, among others[2] Group 2: Debt and Deficit Impact - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts the bill will increase the deficit by $500 billion by 2026, raising the deficit-to-GDP ratio from 5.5% to 7.0%[3] - Over ten years, the total deficit increase is estimated at $2.4 trillion, potentially raising total debt by $3 trillion if interest is included[3] - If the tax cuts are made permanent, the total debt increase could reach $5 trillion, with the deficit amounting to 6.8% of GDP[3] Group 3: Legislative Challenges - The Senate and House have differing views on key provisions, particularly regarding the SALT deduction cap and Medicaid cuts[4] - The Senate version proposes a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase, compared to the House's $4 trillion[5] - There is a significant push for the Senate to finalize the bill before the July 4 deadline, despite ongoing disagreements[5] Group 4: International Tax Provisions - The bill includes the controversial 889 clause, which may impose taxes on foreign entities that engage in "unfair taxation" against U.S. companies[6] - The 889 clause aims to increase revenue by approximately $120 billion over ten years, averaging $12 billion annually[8] - The clause reflects a shift from tariffs to international tax negotiations, indicating a potential change in U.S. trade policy focus[9]

Group 1: Planning Timeline and Context - The "Fifteen Five" planning process has started earlier than the "Fourteen Five" period, indicating an accelerated preparation phase[7] - The evaluation of the "Fourteen Five" implementation will inform the "Fifteen Five" planning, focusing on gathering public and departmental opinions[12] - The "Fifteen Five" planning is expected to be influenced by the mid-term evaluation report of the "Fourteen Five," highlighting key issues such as technology bottlenecks[16] Group 2: Key Insights and Focus Areas - The "Fourteen Five" mid-term evaluation report emphasizes that technology bottlenecks are a core issue for future development[16] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has increased the proportion of research topics related to technology innovation in the "Fifteen Five" planning[18] - High-level support for technology development has been signaled through recent central decision-making activities, emphasizing the importance of innovation[22] Group 3: Historical Trends and Future Expectations - Since the "Twelfth Five" period, technology development has increasingly become a priority in five-year plans, with a trend expected to continue[24] - Historical completion rates of technology-related goals in previous five-year plans suggest a strong likelihood of achieving the proposed targets in the "Fifteen Five" period[26] - Upcoming events to watch include further central discussions and the release of additional research topics related to technology innovation[27] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - There is a risk of inaccurate or incomplete data and information affecting the planning process[28] - Potential underperformance of incremental policies related to technology innovation could impact the effectiveness of the "Fifteen Five" plan[28] - The progress of the "Fifteen Five" plan may not align with expectations based on the "Fourteen Five" experience, introducing uncertainty[28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for companies involved in the dye industry, particularly those with H acid or reactive dye production capacity [4]. Core Insights - The price of H acid has increased significantly, reaching 44,000 RMB/ton, marking a daily rise of 5.39% and a year-to-date increase of 22.22% [1][2]. - The tightening supply of H acid due to capacity rectifications is expected to further drive up prices, with a noted supply gap of over 10% in the market [2]. - The successful transmission of price increases from H acid to downstream reactive dyes indicates a strong price elasticity, with reactive dye prices rising from 200,000 RMB/ton to 230,000 RMB/ton, a 15% increase [3]. Summary by Sections - **H Acid Price Movement**: H acid prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with a notable increase from 36,500 RMB/ton in early April to 41,750 RMB/ton by mid-May, reflecting a 14.38% rise [3]. - **Supply Constraints**: The effective production capacity of H acid in China is currently below 60,000 tons, with significant contributions from specific companies like Yadong Fine Chemical [2]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies to watch include: 1. Jinchicken Co., with 8,000 tons of H acid capacity and 45,000 tons/year of reactive dye capacity [4]. 2. Runtu Co., holding 100,000 tons/year of reactive dye capacity and ranking among the top two in market share [4]. 3. Jihua Group, with 20,000 tons of reactive dye and H acid capacity [4]. 4. Zhejiang Longsheng, the largest global producer of textile chemicals with a capacity of 300,000 tons of dyes and 100,000 tons of additives [4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The global nuclear power sector is at a turning point, with long-term demand expected to rise significantly, leading to an upward trend in uranium prices. The average annual new installed capacity from 2025 to 2030 is projected to reach 13 GW, corresponding to a total initial natural uranium demand of approximately 31,200 tons [1][19]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the uranium industry, backed by China General Nuclear Power Group, and is the only publicly listed pure uranium company in East Asia. It has stakes in four uranium mines in Kazakhstan and has seen strong investment returns due to rising uranium prices [2][4]. - The company's mining production is stable, with a total equity resource of 24,000 tons of uranium and an equity capacity of 1,899 tons. Production is expected to increase from 500 tons in 2025 to 900 tons by 2029, benefiting from low-cost operations [2][3]. - The company has adjusted its sales pricing mechanism, which is expected to enhance performance significantly from 2026 onwards, as the new pricing framework increases the base price from $61.78 to $94.22 per pound of U3O8 [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Uranium Industry - The nuclear power sector is experiencing a resurgence driven by global decarbonization efforts, energy security, and advancements in small modular reactor (SMR) technology. This is expected to lead to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2% in global nuclear power capacity from 2024 to 2050 [1][11]. - The supply side is facing a widening gap, with a projected increase of 15,300 tons of uranium from 2025 to 2030, which is significantly lower than the demand [1][30]. 2. Company Overview - The company is the only platform for overseas uranium resource development under China General Nuclear Power Group and has seen substantial profit growth due to rising uranium prices [2][4]. - The company’s mining operations are characterized by low production costs, which provide a competitive advantage in the market [2][3]. 3. Resource Sector - The company’s mining output is stable, with production expected to remain steady in 2025, and potential increases in capacity from 500 tons to 900 tons between 2025 and 2029 [2][3]. 4. Trade Sector - The company has benefited from a new pricing agreement that enhances its revenue potential, with significant increases in the base price for uranium sales expected to drive performance from 2026 [3][4]. - The international trade segment is positioned to improve profit margins as the company locks in favorable pricing while retaining some flexibility to benefit from rising uranium prices [3][4]. 5. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 539 million, 994 million, and 1,209 million Hong Kong dollars from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.07, 0.13, and 0.16 Hong Kong dollars [4][5].

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report highlights the challenges faced by private enterprises, with government and state-owned enterprises taking the lead in development, particularly favoring ToG B2B procurement companies due to increasing procurement needs amid declining central government revenue growth [3] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Qixin Group, Xianheng International, Chenguang Keli, Zhenkunhang, and JD Industrial, which are well-positioned to benefit from online procurement policies [3] - The report emphasizes the potential for compliance products in the vaping market as regulatory scrutiny tightens, particularly with the anticipated revisions to the European Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) in 2025 and increased FDA regulation in the U.S. [3] Group 2: Home Furnishing Sector - The home furnishing industry is expected to benefit from policies like "old-for-new" exchanges and easing real estate policies, with a projected 10.5% year-on-year increase in retail sales of furniture in November 2024 [4] - Leading companies such as Oppein, Mousse, Gujia, and Zhibang are recommended due to their ability to navigate the evolving market landscape and capitalize on the trend towards integrated home solutions [4] Group 3: Paper Industry - The report notes a growing divergence in profitability among leading paper companies, with a focus on Sun Paper as a key player benefiting from improved operational efficiency and market share growth [4] - The report anticipates a gradual increase in valuations for leading paper companies as industry consolidation continues and capital expenditures decline [4] Group 4: Tobacco Industry - The report identifies a high concentration in the heated not burned (HNB) tobacco market, dominated by Philip Morris and British American Tobacco, with significant market shares of over 50% and 20% respectively [10] - The report discusses the barriers to entry in the HNB market compared to vaping products, highlighting the strong supply chain control held by major tobacco companies [13] - The report also notes the strategic moves by China National Tobacco Corporation to expand its international presence, particularly in emerging markets, leveraging geopolitical shifts [33] Group 5: Toy Industry - The toy market is experiencing rapid growth, with companies like Pop Mart achieving significant revenue increases, driven by strong IP management and product innovation [43] - The report highlights Pop Mart's impressive revenue growth of 106.9% year-on-year in 2024, with substantial contributions from both domestic and international markets [43] - The report also mentions the expansion of Pop Mart's overseas operations, which are expected to provide a second growth curve for the company [45]