Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: CSI 300 Trend Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model assumes that the price movement of the target has strong local continuity, always following a certain trend. Reversal trends are assumed to last significantly shorter than trend continuations. In cases of narrow-range consolidation, the model assumes the continuation of the previous trend. By observing short-term windows, the model identifies local trends and excludes random noise when reversals occur. The model also assumes the ability to perform long-short operations for more rigorous evaluation of relative returns[5][6]. - **Specific Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the difference between the interest rate value on day T and the closing price of the CSI 300 index on day T-20, denoted as `del`[3]. 2. Compute the volatility (`Vol`) over the period from T-20 to T (excluding T)[5]. 3. If the absolute value of `del` exceeds N times `Vol`, the price is considered to have broken out of the original oscillation range, forming a trend. The trend direction (long or short) corresponds to the sign of `del`. Otherwise, the current trend is assumed to continue, with the direction matching that of day T-1[5]. 4. Combine the returns from both long and short directions to form the final evaluation basis[5]. - **Formula**: $ \text{If } |del| > N \cdot Vol, \text{ trend direction } = \text{sign}(del) $ $ \text{Else, trend direction } = \text{direction of T-1} $ Where: - `del` = Difference between T-day interest rate and T-20-day CSI 300 closing price - `Vol` = Volatility from T-20 to T (excluding T) - `N` = Tracking multiplier, set to 1 in this model[4][5] - **Evaluation**: The model is less effective for the CSI 300 index due to its higher volatility compared to bond markets. It struggles during high-frequency oscillations but performs better in clear single-direction trends. Overall, it can still achieve excess returns but is not ideal for direct application to the CSI 300 index[6]. Model Backtesting Results - **CSI 300 Trend Tracking Model**: - Annualized Return: 3.97%[5] - Annualized Volatility: 17.85%[5] - Sharpe Ratio: 0.22[5] - Maximum Drawdown: 19.32%[5] - Total Return Over the Period: -1.02%[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AVIC High-Tech (600862) with a target price of 30.00, compared to the last closing price of 25.46 [1][3] Core Insights - The company's main materials business continues to grow, with significant improvements in technological innovation [1][4] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.072 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.12%, and a net profit of 1.153 billion yuan, up 11.75% from the previous year [3][4] - The comprehensive gross profit margin reached 38.83%, an increase of 2.08 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a steady improvement in overall profitability [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the revenue from the aviation new materials business was 4.969 billion yuan, a growth of 6.37% year-on-year, with the profit totaling 1.374 billion yuan, up 8.44% [4] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.203 billion yuan, 1.398 billion yuan, and 1.605 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.86 yuan, 1.00 yuan, and 1.15 yuan [5][7] Research and Development - The company increased its R&D investment to 197 million yuan in 2024, a growth of 12.74% year-on-year, and filed 37 patent applications, with 11 patents granted [5] - Significant advancements were made in the development of carbon fiber and resin interface matching technology, as well as breakthroughs in materials for the C919 civil aircraft [5] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a revenue growth rate of 17.50% in 2025, followed by 16.50% in 2026 and 15.00% in 2027 [7] - The expected PE ratios for the next three years are 29 times, 25 times, and 22 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [5][7]

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market shows a mixed performance with 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds slightly rising, while the 30-year bond experiences a slight decline. The bond market has fully priced in the interest rate cut expectations, and the technical support for the 10-year bond has stabilized after hitting a key level [3][17][20] - The A-share market experienced a day of fluctuations, with the ChiNext index leading the gains. The technology sector's long-term bull market is not over, but short-term trading is crowded, leading to potential volatility. Investors are advised to take profits and focus on low-position stocks in dividends, consumption, and healthcare [3][23] - The US stock market continues to rebound, but a mid-term adjustment is expected to remain. The market is shifting from "Trump Put" trading to "Trump Recession," indicating a potential monthly level adjustment. Investors should wait for long-term buying opportunities [3][27] Group 2: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.2266, down 133 basis points from the previous close. The market is betting on a European "revival" narrative, leading to a significant appreciation of the Euro and a decline in the USD index. The short-term USD index is expected to correct before choosing a direction [4][31] - The CNY/USD has strong support around 7.1, and due to ongoing trade war expectations, it is difficult to break above this level. The medium to long-term outlook suggests a potential depreciation of the RMB, with the offshore RMB expected to reach 7.5-7.6 in 2025 [4][31] Group 3: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.38%, with precious metals and oil sectors leading the gains, while coal, construction materials, and non-ferrous metals lagged. The index is currently at the lower end of its range, suggesting a potential opportunity for long positions [4][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, indicating that the expected overall return in the next six months will be between -5% and 5% compared to the CSI 300 index [12] Core Insights - The report highlights that the real estate sector is experiencing mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index showing slight increases, while the Shenwan Real Estate Index has decreased by 0.39% [4] - Recent land transactions in Hangzhou indicate active market engagement, with two residential plots sold for a total of 2.375 billion, reflecting competitive bidding [6] Market Performance - On March 18, 2025, the real estate sector saw significant individual stock movements, with the top five gainers being Yuehongyuan A, Yunnan Chengtou, Guangming Real Estate, China Merchants Shekou, and Hefei Urban Construction, with gains of 9.95%, 4.30%, 3.07%, 2.31%, and 2.07% respectively [5] - Conversely, the top five decliners included Waigaoqiao, Rongfeng Holdings, I Love My Home, Nanshan Holdings, and Zhujiang Shares, with declines of -3.05%, -2.30%, -2.29%, -2.07%, and -1.95% respectively [5] Sub-industry Ratings - The report does not provide specific ratings for real estate development and real estate services, indicating a lack of consensus or clear direction in these sub-sectors [3] Recent News - The report notes a policy adjustment in Henan Province, increasing housing provident fund loan limits by 20%, which may stimulate demand in the housing market [7] - Additionally, Xiamen Anju Group announced a public bond issuance plan, aiming to raise up to 1.3 billion yuan, which reflects ongoing financing activities within the sector [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive," with expectations that the overall return of the industry will exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [9]. Core Insights - Google is collaborating with MediaTek to develop the next-generation Tensor Processing Unit (TPU), which is expected to begin production at TSMC next year [8]. - The electronic sector shows varied performance, with brand consumer electronics up by 0.90% and passive components down by 0.13% [4]. - Notable stock performances include Fuhang Micro up by 14.70%, and Jingsheng Electronics down by 11.45% [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Sub-industry Ratings - The report includes ratings for various sub-industries within the electronic sector, indicating a diverse performance landscape [3]. Recommended Companies and Ratings - Specific companies are highlighted with ratings, suggesting potential investment opportunities [3]. Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.11%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 0.49%, indicating a generally positive market sentiment [4]. Company Announcements - Aohong Electronics reported a revenue of 1.29 billion yuan, a 19.45% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 141.5 million yuan, up 6.45% [5]. - Bawei Storage plans to raise up to 1.9 billion yuan for expansion projects [5]. - Copper Peak Electronics achieved a revenue of 1.29 billion yuan, growing 18.91% year-on-year [6]. Industry Trends - The report notes a growing market penetration and revenue increase for companies involved in emerging applications such as automotive electronics and renewable energy [5][6].

2025 年 03 月 18 日 行业周报 看好/维持 电力设备及新能源 电力设备及新能源 新能源周报（第 126 期 20250310-20250316）：重视供给端的变 化：钴、铁锂、BC 等 ◼ 走势比较 (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/3/18 24/5/29 24/8/9 24/10/20 24/12/31 25/3/13 电力设备及新能源 ◼ 推荐公司及评级 相关研究报告 <<新能源周报（第 125 期 20250303- 20250309）：重视未来产业，AI+是核 心>>--2025-03-11 <<【太平洋新能源】新能源周报（第 124 期 20250224-20250302）：锂电、 光伏短期景气度向好>>--2025-03- 04 <<新能源周报（第 123 期 20250217- 20250223）：把握智能化、新技术带来 的变革性机会>>--2025-02-24 证券分析师：刘强 电话： 从锂电、光伏等主产业链看，目前价格都处于大底部，也表明目前需 求处于中周期低谷；我们在这个阶段更要供给端的变化，目前钴供给 的突然减少、高端铁锂的优化、BC 的突破等是 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, YouRan Agriculture [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the raw milk industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, but a reversal is expected soon due to supply adjustments and increasing demand [4][5]. - YouRan Agriculture is positioned as the leading raw milk supplier in China, benefiting from economies of scale and strong customer relationships, particularly with Yili Group [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Characteristics of the Raw Milk Industry - The raw milk industry is characterized by strong cyclicality, typically experiencing price fluctuations every five years, influenced by rigid supply and steadily increasing demand [3]. - Supply rigidity is due to the biological asset characteristics of dairy cows, which require at least 24 months from breeding to milk production, and the geographical concentration of production [3][4]. - High capital barriers exist for new entrants, with significant investment required to establish dairy farms, and strong quality requirements from large dairy enterprises [3][4]. 2. YouRan Agriculture Overview - YouRan Agriculture is the largest raw milk supplier in China, managing nearly 600,000 dairy cows across 96 farms, accounting for 9.7% of the national raw milk output [4]. - The company has a comprehensive supply chain covering breeding, feed, and milk production, achieving a milk yield of 12.6 tons per cow [4]. - The company has a strong customer base, with Yili Group being both the largest shareholder and customer, purchasing 12.45 billion yuan worth of raw milk in 2023, with prices approximately 20% higher than the market average [4]. 3. Raw Milk Price Cycle Characteristics - The current raw milk price cycle has been declining for 42 months since its peak in mid-2021, leading to significant capacity reduction in the industry [4]. - The report anticipates that by the second half of 2025, the raw milk industry will reach a supply-demand balance, leading to a price reversal [4][5]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation for YouRan Agriculture - The forecasted revenues for YouRan Agriculture from 2024 to 2026 are 2.086 billion, 2.284 billion, and 2.626 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to turn positive by 2025 [5]. - The report estimates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will improve from -0.1 yuan in 2024 to 0.6 yuan in 2026, reflecting the anticipated recovery in raw milk prices [5].

金 金融工程点评 [Table_Title] 多空趋势跟踪模型效果点评（国债版） [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 模型概述 计算 T 日利率值与 T-20 日利率值的差 del。 计算 T-20 日至 T 日（不含）时间段的波动率 Vol。 若 del 的绝对值大于 N 倍的 Vol，则认为当前利率已经脱离原有的振荡区 间，形成趋势，趋势多空方向与 del 的正负情况对应；若小于等于 N 倍 的 Vol，则认为当前走势延续，趋势方向同 T-1 日。 取 N=2 进行跟踪。 结果评估： 区间年化收益：40.58bp 波动率（年化）：30.61bp 夏普率：1.33 最大回撤：43.62bp 最大回撤所处周期：163 交易日 [Table_Message]2025-03-17 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on the last closing price of 4.82 HKD [1][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 10.07 billion HKD in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.6%, and a net profit of 1.15 billion HKD, also up by 19.5% [4][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of its "super premium" stores, which are anticipated to contribute additional revenue in 2025 [1][10]. - The company is positioned as the fourth largest domestic sports brand in China, focusing on technology-driven professional sports products and enhancing its competitive edge in children's apparel [8][10]. Revenue Breakdown - Adult footwear and apparel revenue grew by 22% and 15% respectively, reaching 4.3 billion and 3.1 billion HKD, driven by new product launches and sponsorships [5]. - Children's footwear and apparel revenue increased by 18% and 23% respectively, totaling 1.1 billion and 1.2 billion HKD, capitalizing on diverse consumer needs [5]. - Offline revenue rose by 23% to 7.3 billion HKD, with a total of 8,298 stores by the end of 2024, while e-commerce revenue grew by 12% to 2.6 billion HKD [5]. Store Expansion and Operations - The company is actively exploring new store formats, with plans to open 100 "super premium" stores in 2025, enhancing the shopping experience [6][10]. - Currently, five stores are operational, with plans to increase to ten by the end of March and approximately fifty by June [6]. Financial Metrics and Forecast - The gross profit margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 41.5%, while the net profit margin remained stable at 11.4% [7]. - The company forecasts a sales growth of 10%-15% in 2025, with a gross margin expected to be between 40-42% [7]. - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.32 billion, 1.50 billion, and 1.65 billion HKD respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.64, 0.72, and 0.80 HKD [11][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, indicating that the expected overall return in the next six months will be between -5% and 5% relative to the CSI 300 index [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations as a key strategy to stimulate housing demand and promote a stable real estate market [5]. - The overall real estate market in China is described as stable, with some regions still undergoing adjustments, and there is a focus on tailored policies to reduce restrictive measures [5]. - The report notes that the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices saw slight increases, while the real estate index rose by 0.96% on the reporting date [3]. Market Performance - On March 17, 2025, the top five performing stocks in the real estate sector were Quzhou Development, Guangming Real Estate, China Merchants Jinling, Waigaoqiao, and Nandu Property, with respective increases of 10.17%, 10.15%, 9.96%, 6.67%, and 5.31% [4]. - Conversely, the five stocks with the largest declines included Shahe Shares, Jingji Zhinong, Huafa Shares, Binjiang Group, and Hefei Urban Construction, with decreases of -4.95%, -2.84%, -1.99%, -1.55%, and -1.38% [4]. Sub-industry Ratings - The report does not provide specific ratings for real estate development and real estate services, indicating a lack of current assessment in these areas [3]. Company Announcements - Shenzhen Metro Real Estate plans to launch approximately 4,300 housing units this year, including around 2,000 units designated for talent housing [7]. - China Railway secured a residential land plot in Zhengzhou for 240 million yuan, with a floor price of 3,322 yuan per square meter, indicating a stable land acquisition environment [6].