- The report constructs an industry congestion monitoring model to monitor the congestion levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indexes on a daily basis[3] - The report constructs a Z-score model based on premium rates to screen ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities[4] Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name: Industry Congestion Monitoring Model** - **Model Construction Idea:** Monitor the congestion levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indexes daily[3] - **Model Construction Process:** The model calculates the congestion levels of various industries based on the flow of main funds. It identifies industries with high and low congestion levels and tracks the changes in congestion levels over time[3] - **Model Evaluation:** The model effectively identifies industries with significant changes in congestion levels, providing valuable insights for investment decisions[3] 2. **Model Name: Premium Rate Z-score Model** - **Model Construction Idea:** Screen ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities based on the premium rate Z-score[4] - **Model Construction Process:** The model calculates the Z-score of the premium rates of various ETF products through rolling measurements. It identifies ETFs with potential arbitrage opportunities and warns of possible pullback risks[4] - **Model Evaluation:** The model provides a systematic approach to identify ETFs with potential arbitrage opportunities, aiding investors in making informed decisions[4] Model Backtesting Results 1. **Industry Congestion Monitoring Model** - **Congestion Levels:** Coal, Environmental Protection, and Petrochemical industries had high congestion levels, while Food & Beverage and Computer industries had low congestion levels[3] - **Main Fund Flows:** Main funds flowed into Coal and Media industries, and flowed out of Machinery and Pharmaceutical & Biological industries in the previous trading day[3] - **Three-Day Fund Allocation:** Main funds reduced allocation in Pharmaceutical, Electric Power Equipment, and increased allocation in Media over the past three days[3] 2. **Premium Rate Z-score Model** - **ETF Fund Flows:** - **Broad-based ETFs:** Net outflow of 15.91 billion yuan in a single day[5] - **Industry-themed ETFs:** Net inflow of 9.14 billion yuan in a single day[5] - **Style Strategy ETFs:** Net outflow of 2.85 billion yuan in a single day[5] - **Cross-border ETFs:** Net inflow of 24.28 billion yuan in a single day[5] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. **Factor Name: Congestion Level Factor** - **Factor Construction Idea:** Measure the congestion levels of various industries based on main fund flows[3] - **Factor Construction Process:** Calculate the congestion levels by analyzing the flow of main funds into and out of different industries. Identify industries with high and low congestion levels and track changes over time[3] - **Factor Evaluation:** The factor effectively highlights industries with significant congestion level changes, providing valuable insights for investment decisions[3] 2. **Factor Name: Premium Rate Z-score Factor** - **Factor Construction Idea:** Identify potential arbitrage opportunities in ETF products based on the premium rate Z-score[4] - **Factor Construction Process:** Calculate the Z-score of the premium rates of various ETF products through rolling measurements. Identify ETFs with potential arbitrage opportunities and warn of possible pullback risks[4] - **Factor Evaluation:** The factor provides a systematic approach to identify ETFs with potential arbitrage opportunities, aiding investors in making informed decisions[4] Factor Backtesting Results 1. **Congestion Level Factor** - **Congestion Levels:** Coal, Environmental Protection, and Petrochemical industries had high congestion levels, while Food & Beverage and Computer industries had low congestion levels[3] - **Main Fund Flows:** Main funds flowed into Coal and Media industries, and flowed out of Machinery and Pharmaceutical & Biological industries in the previous trading day[3] - **Three-Day Fund Allocation:** Main funds reduced allocation in Pharmaceutical, Electric Power Equipment, and increased allocation in Media over the past three days[3] 2. **Premium Rate Z-score Factor** - **ETF Fund Flows:** - **Broad-based ETFs:** Net outflow of 15.91 billion yuan in a single day[5] - **Industry-themed ETFs:** Net inflow of 9.14 billion yuan in a single day[5] - **Style Strategy ETFs:** Net outflow of 2.85 billion yuan in a single day[5] - **Cross-border ETFs:** Net inflow of 24.28 billion yuan in a single day[5]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the upcoming quarter will see renewed market interest in traditional sectors such as coal, banking, and aquaculture, as indicated by the strong performance of the dividend index [5][18] - The Fourth Plenary Session has established AI as a core focus for the technology sector, alongside military-related themes, which are expected to dominate the market for the next five years [5][10] - The report suggests that the technology sector's high absorption rate and volatility will make it difficult to achieve excess returns, while sectors like coal, banking, and nuclear power are expected to perform well in the fourth quarter [5][18] Group 2 - The report predicts that the bond market will stabilize in the short term but will continue to decline in the long term, with a target near the low point from September 30, 2024 [4][15] - The A-share market is expected to focus on traditional sectors in the upcoming quarter, while the technology sector will be monitored for a potential decrease in absorption rates [10][18] - The report highlights that the U.S. stock market is likely to perform strongly due to anticipated favorable earnings reports, although it may experience low volatility leading up to key meetings [6][23] Group 3 - The report indicates that the onshore RMB has shown strength against the USD, with the central bank guiding the midpoint lower, while the dollar is expected to maintain a strong performance [7][27] - The euro is projected to continue its decline against the dollar, influenced by factors such as Germany's fiscal restructuring narrative and the euro's overvaluation impacting export competitiveness [8][27] - The commodity market is experiencing a positive trend, particularly in oil and new energy sectors, with several domestic commodities showing signs of recovery [8][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Yanjing Beer with a target price of 14.08, compared to the last closing price of 12.49 [1]. Core Insights - Yanjing Beer has shown continuous improvement in profitability, with a significant increase in net profit and a focus on shareholder returns through its first quarterly dividend distribution [6][7]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 134.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 17.70 billion, up 37.45% year-on-year [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: In Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 134.33 billion, with a net profit of 17.70 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.57% and 37.45% respectively. In Q3 alone, revenue was 48.75 billion, with a net profit of 6.68 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.55% and 26.00% [4][5]. - **Cost and Margin**: The cost per ton decreased to 2030 yuan, down 0.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 47.19% for Q1-Q3 2025, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for Q3 reached 16.17%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. - **Sales Performance**: The company maintained a trend of increasing sales volume and price, with Q1-Q3 sales volume at 349.52 million tons and price at 3843 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.39% and 3.1% respectively [5][6]. Future Projections - The report projects a revenue growth rate of 4% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of 45%, 18%, and 14% for the respective years. The expected earnings per share (EPS) are 0.54, 0.64, and 0.73 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23x, 20x, and 17x [7][8].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is neutral, indicating that the overall return is expected to be between -5% and 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [38]. Core Insights - The real estate market continues to experience a decline in sales, with a cumulative sales area of 65,835 million square meters from January to September 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% [11]. - New home and second-hand home prices have shown a narrowing decline, with the new home price index in 70 major cities decreasing by 2.7% year-on-year in September, a reduction in the rate of decline compared to previous months [5][17]. - Development investment remains under pressure, with cumulative investment of 67,706 billion yuan from January to September 2025, down 13.9% year-on-year [28]. Summary by Sections Sales - Cumulative sales area for January to September 2025 is 65,835 million square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year, with a single-month sales area in September of 8,531 million square meters, down 10.5% [11]. - Cumulative sales amount for the same period is 63,040 billion yuan, down 7.9% year-on-year, with September's sales amount at 8,025 billion yuan, down 11.8% [11]. Prices - The new home price index in 70 major cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month in September, with a year-on-year decline of 2.7% [5][17]. - The second-hand home price index also saw a year-on-year decline of 5.2%, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [24]. Development Investment - Cumulative development investment from January to September 2025 is 67,706 billion yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year, with September's investment at 7,397 billion yuan, down 21.3% [28]. - New construction area for the same period is 45,399 million square meters, down 18.9% year-on-year, but the decline rate has narrowed [29]. Investment Recommendations - The real estate market is in a deep adjustment period, with sales remaining low and fundamentals weakening. However, the construction of quality housing is expected to drive demand for quality and improved housing in the future [36].

- The report constructs an industry congestion monitoring model to monitor the congestion levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indexes on a daily basis[3] - The premium rate Z-score model is used to build a related ETF product screening signal model, providing potential arbitrage opportunities[4] - The industry congestion monitoring model indicates that the congestion levels of the power equipment, coal, and non-ferrous industries were high on the previous trading day, while the congestion levels of media, social services, and computers were relatively low[3] - The premium rate Z-score model involves rolling calculations to identify potential arbitrage opportunities and warns of potential pullback risks[4]

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The report indicates that interest rate bonds have risen across the board, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones. The 30-year government bond is expected to stabilize after hitting a new low this year, with a forecasted decline towards the low point from September 30, 2024, in the long term [17][19][8] - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with a trading volume of 1.95 trillion, reflecting a pessimistic market sentiment. The report suggests that sectors representing "old" forces, such as coal and banking, will regain market attention in the upcoming quarter [19][9][10] - The report maintains that despite short-term adjustments in the stock market, the long-term upward momentum for A-shares remains intact, indicating a strong preference for stocks over bonds in the broader market trend [17][19][8] Group 2: A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market saw a broad decline, with over 4,500 stocks falling. The report emphasizes that the strong performance of "old" sectors like coal and banking is likely to continue, while technology stocks are underperforming due to high absorption rates and volatility [19][9][10] - The report highlights that the absorption rate for technology stocks remains above 30%, indicating limited room for recovery from high levels, which has historically taken about one quarter [19][10][9] Group 3: U.S. Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices fell, with the Dow Jones down 0.65%, S&P 500 down 0.63%, and Nasdaq down 0.47%. The report notes that comments from Powell opened the door for a potential rate cut in October, but investors may be underestimating risks related to U.S.-China trade negotiations [24][10][9] - The report suggests that the high valuation of U.S. stocks may lead to wide fluctuations until clarity on trade negotiations is achieved, with a strategy to buy the dip being effective when the VIX index exceeds 30 [24][10][9] Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1262, showing a slight increase. The report anticipates that the USD will continue to perform strongly, while the Euro is expected to decline against the USD [30][11][10] - The report highlights that the Eurozone's weak performance and the historical high of the Euro's effective exchange rate are contributing factors to the anticipated decline of the Euro against the USD [30][11][10] Group 5: Commodity Market Analysis - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.49%, with coal and polysilicon sectors showing strength. The report indicates that coal is entering a demand season, and favorable supply-side policies for polysilicon are expected [33][12][10] - The report advises caution in short-selling commodities, as the overall commodity market appears weak, with specific strong products being the exception [33][12][10]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of the "old" forces in the market, particularly sectors like coal, banking, and aquaculture, which are expected to regain market attention in the upcoming quarter [5][20][10] - The technology sector, represented by the ChiNext and STAR Market, is currently underperforming, with high absorption rates making it difficult to achieve excess returns [5][20] - The report maintains a bullish outlook on coal, banking, photovoltaic, aquaculture, and nuclear power sectors for the fourth quarter, suggesting that buying in less popular areas and selling in high-demand areas is essential for achieving excess returns [5][20] Group 2 - In the bond market, the long end is expected to rise while the short end declines, with a forecast for the 30-year government bond to stabilize after hitting a new low this year [4][15] - The report predicts that the A-share market will continue to show strong momentum in the medium to long term, despite potential short-term adjustments [4][15] - The report suggests that the U.S. dollar will maintain a strong performance in the near term, with expectations for the euro to continue declining against the dollar [7][30] Group 3 - The commodity market shows a mixed performance, with the Wenshu Commodity Index rising by 0.57%, particularly in coal and polysilicon sectors, while overall commodity performance remains weak [8][33] - The report advises caution in short-selling commodities, as certain strong products may still perform well, but overall market conditions suggest a bearish outlook [8][33] - The report highlights the need for investors to set stop-loss levels, especially after breaking previous support levels [8][33]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, expecting overall returns to exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy changes in Chengdu regarding housing provident funds, which now allow individuals who have contributed from other cities to apply for conversion loans [5]. - The real estate market showed positive momentum with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 1.22% and 1.56% respectively on October 15, 2025 [3]. - The report notes significant individual stock performances, with top gainers in the real estate sector including Xiangjiang Holdings and Shangshi Development, which rose by 10.10% and 10.06% respectively [4]. Market Trends - The report indicates a general upward trend in the equity market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index increasing by 0.11% [3]. - Chengdu's new policy eliminates the "local contribution" restriction, expanding eligibility for housing loans [5]. - A notable land auction in Hangzhou resulted in a successful bid of 1.264 billion yuan with a premium rate of 19.93% [6]. Company Performance - Beijing Shoukai Development Co., Ltd. reported a total signed area of 91,500 square meters and a signed amount of 853 million yuan for September 2025 [9]. - The company achieved a total signed area of 943,800 square meters and a signed amount of 14 billion yuan from January to September 2025 [9].

- The industry crowding monitoring model was constructed to monitor the daily crowding levels of Shenwan first-level industry indices. The model identifies industries with high crowding levels, such as electric equipment, steel, and non-ferrous metals, while industries like media, social services, and computers exhibit lower crowding levels. The model also tracks significant changes in crowding levels for industries like automobiles, beauty care, and pharmaceuticals[3] - The Z-score premium rate model was developed to screen ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities. The model uses rolling calculations to identify ETFs with significant deviations from their intrinsic value, which may indicate opportunities for arbitrage. It also highlights potential risks of price corrections for certain ETFs[4] - Daily fund flow analysis for ETFs shows that broad-based ETFs had a net inflow of 11.77 billion yuan, with top inflows into CSI 300 ETF (+12.76 billion yuan), CSI 500 ETF (+6.24 billion yuan), and CSI 1000 ETF (+6.18 billion yuan). On the other hand, the top outflows were observed in ChiNext ETF (-9.47 billion yuan), STAR 50 ETF (-6.82 billion yuan), and CSI A500 ETF (-4.03 billion yuan)[5][6] - Industry-themed ETFs experienced a net inflow of 51.44 billion yuan, with the highest inflows into Rare Earth ETF (+11.84 billion yuan), Bank ETF (+6.70 billion yuan), and Securities ETF (+5.15 billion yuan). The top outflows were seen in Pharmaceutical ETF (-5.38 billion yuan), Semiconductor ETF (-2.82 billion yuan), and Artificial Intelligence ETF (-2.73 billion yuan)[5][6] - Style strategy ETFs recorded a net inflow of 11.09 billion yuan, with top inflows into Low Volatility Dividend ETF (+7.98 billion yuan), Dividend ETF (+1.81 billion yuan), and Low Volatility Dividend 50 ETF (+0.66 billion yuan). The top outflows were observed in State-Owned Enterprise Dividend ETF (-1.51 billion yuan), Dividend ETF (-0.91 billion yuan), and Central Enterprise Dividend 50 ETF (-0.35 billion yuan)[5][6] - Cross-border ETFs had a net inflow of 8.11 billion yuan, with top inflows into Hong Kong Non-Bank ETF (+3.32 billion yuan), Hang Seng Technology ETF (+2.82 billion yuan), and Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (+2.15 billion yuan). The top outflows were seen in China Internet ETF (-9.52 billion yuan), Hong Kong Securities ETF (-4.14 billion yuan), and S&P 500 ETF (-0.51 billion yuan)[5][6]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a narrowing of the decline by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking a continuous increase for five months and reaching a 19-month high[4] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.1%, transitioning from flat to positive growth, although this increase is below the historical average over the past decade[4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year in September, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - The year-on-year decline in PPI is primarily attributed to a low base from the previous year, with production material prices decreasing by 2.4% and living material prices down by 1.7%[4] - Month-on-month, the PPI remained flat for two consecutive months, indicating a reduction in downward price pressure[4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current low price levels are expected to persist, with pork prices continuing to decline; however, policies aimed at stimulating consumption may lead to a slight increase in CPI growth in October[4] - The real estate market remains weak, and infrastructure investment is below expectations, which may continue to exert pressure on industrial product prices[4] - The PPI is anticipated to continue its year-on-year decline, with a slight narrowing expected in October, but it is unlikely to turn positive within the year[4] Group 4: Risks - Potential risks include policy uncertainties, unexpected changes in macroeconomic fundamentals, and geopolitical risks from abroad[4]