Export Performance - In May, China's exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly below the market expectation of 5.0% and down from 8.1% in the previous month[5] - The trade surplus for May was $103.22 billion, exceeding the expected $101.3 billion and up from $96.18 billion in April[5] - Exports to the US fell by 34.5%, a decline that expanded by 13.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, significantly impacting overall export performance[14] Import Trends - Imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year in May, worse than the market expectation of a 0.9% decline and down from a 0.2% drop in April[5] - The decline in imports was influenced by both price factors and limited domestic demand recovery, with energy-related imports, particularly crude oil, showing a significant drop of nearly 40%[29] Market Dynamics - The overall export resilience is attributed to strong performance in electromechanical products, which grew by 7.2%, and high-tech products, which increased by 4.9%[19] - Exports to emerging markets like ASEAN and India remained robust, with year-on-year growth rates exceeding 10%, although there was a marginal decline compared to previous months[16] Economic Indicators - The global manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.2% for May, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector, which may affect future export orders[10] - The domestic manufacturing PMI's new export orders index remains below 50%, suggesting weak external demand despite some recovery[10]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is designed to monitor the crowding levels of industries on a daily basis, using the Shenwan First-Level Industry Index as the basis for analysis[4] - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates the crowding levels of various industries by analyzing daily changes in key metrics such as capital inflows and outflows. Specific metrics or formulas are not detailed in the report[4] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights into which industries are experiencing high or low crowding levels, helping investors identify potential opportunities or risks[4] 2. Model Name: Premium Rate Z-Score Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies potential arbitrage opportunities in ETF products by calculating the Z-score of their premium rates over a rolling window[5] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the premium rate of an ETF as the percentage difference between its market price and net asset value (NAV) 2. Compute the Z-score of the premium rate over a specified rolling window to standardize deviations from the mean 3. Use the Z-score to signal potential arbitrage opportunities or risks of price corrections[5] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying ETFs with significant deviations from their fair value, providing a basis for arbitrage strategies[5] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - **Top Crowded Industries (Previous Trading Day)**: - Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology, Light Manufacturing, Textiles & Apparel[4] - **Least Crowded Industries (Previous Trading Day)**: - Real Estate, Electronics, Home Appliances[4] - **Significant Daily Changes in Crowding Levels**: - Building Materials, Social Services, Non-Banking Financials[4] 2. Premium Rate Z-Score Model - **ETF Signals**: - ETFs with potential arbitrage opportunities or risks are identified, but specific Z-score thresholds or ETF names are not detailed in the report[5] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods No specific quantitative factors were explicitly mentioned in the report --- Factor Backtesting Results No specific factor backtesting results were explicitly mentioned in the report

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Yunnan Baiyao, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [8][73]. Core Insights - Yunnan Baiyao has four main business segments that are steadily growing, with a strategic focus on innovative traditional Chinese medicine and nuclear medicine [3][5]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 417.62 billion, 435.30 billion, and 452.78 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.32%, 4.23%, and 4.02% [6][66]. - The company has a clear research and development strategy, focusing on both traditional Chinese medicine and innovative pharmaceuticals, with multiple projects in various stages of development [5][55]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - Yunnan Baiyao has achieved a long-term stable growth in performance, with revenue reaching 400.33 billion yuan in 2024, a 2.36% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 47.49 billion yuan, up 16.02% [18][19]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, exceeding 90% for three consecutive years, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [22][24]. Business Segments - The pharmaceutical segment focuses on pain management and has seen significant growth, with revenue of 69.24 billion yuan in 2024, an 11.8% increase year-on-year [26][33]. - The health products segment, led by Yunnan Baiyao toothpaste, achieved revenue of 65.26 billion yuan in 2024, with a 1.6% increase, maintaining its market leadership [40][42]. - The traditional Chinese medicine resources segment reported a revenue of 17.51 billion yuan, growing by 3.13% [44]. - The provincial pharmaceutical company segment generated 246.07 billion yuan in revenue, a slight increase of 0.48% [49]. Research and Development - The company is actively pursuing innovation in both traditional and innovative pharmaceuticals, with numerous projects underway, including 11 major traditional Chinese medicine projects and 25 other initiatives [5][56]. - The focus on AI and digital transformation is expected to enhance operational efficiency and product development capabilities [63][64]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for Yunnan Baiyao's revenue and net profit shows a consistent growth trajectory, with net profit expected to reach 51.33 billion, 56.30 billion, and 59.99 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][66]. - The company's current price-to-earnings ratio is relatively low compared to its peers, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [8][73].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Yunnan Baiyao, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [8][73]. Core Insights - Yunnan Baiyao is experiencing steady growth across its four main business segments: pharmaceuticals, health products, traditional Chinese medicine resources, and provincial pharmaceutical companies, while also advancing new business areas such as medical devices and health supplements [3][4][26]. - The company has a clear research and development strategy focused on innovative traditional Chinese medicine and nuclear medicine, with ongoing projects in both short-term and long-term development [5][55]. - The financial forecast predicts steady revenue growth, with expected revenues of 417.62 billion, 435.30 billion, and 452.78 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 51.33 billion, 56.30 billion, and 59.99 billion yuan for the same years [6][66]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - Yunnan Baiyao has achieved a significant increase in revenue, reaching 400.33 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.36% [18][19]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, exceeding 90% for three consecutive years, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [22][24]. Business Segments - The pharmaceutical segment focuses on pain management and has seen a revenue increase of 11.8% in 2024, driven by core products like Yunnan Baiyao aerosol and plasters [26][33]. - The health products segment, led by Yunnan Baiyao toothpaste, has maintained its market leadership, achieving a revenue of 65.26 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth of 1.6% [40][42]. - The traditional Chinese medicine resources segment has reported a revenue of 17.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 3.13% [44]. Research and Development - The company is actively pursuing innovative drug development, with 11 major projects in secondary innovation and 25 ongoing projects in rapid drug and device development [5][56]. - Yunnan Baiyao is also focusing on AI and digital transformation to enhance its operational efficiency and product development capabilities [63][64]. Financial Projections - The projected revenue growth rates for the next three years are 4.32%, 4.23%, and 4.02%, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 8.08%, 9.68%, and 6.55% [6][66][70]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.88, 3.16, and 3.36 yuan, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [6][66].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral rating for the computer software sub-industry, while no ratings are provided for computer equipment, IT services, cloud services, and industrial internet [6]. Core Insights - The computer industry index rose by 2.79% during the week of June 2-8, 2025, ranking 5th among 31 primary industries, with a year-to-date increase of 4.49%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.04 percentage points [33]. - The "Artificial Intelligence Trends Report 2025" was released, highlighting the rapid development of AI technology and its potential global impact, with a focus on the increasing demand for computational power and data for AI model training [11][12]. - Major tech companies in the U.S. have significantly increased their capital expenditures on AI infrastructure, reaching $212 billion in 2024, a 63% year-on-year increase, with capital expenditures now accounting for 15% of their revenues compared to 8% a decade ago [14]. - The cost of AI inference has dramatically decreased by 99.7% over the past two years, leading to increased user adoption and the creation of new products and services [17]. - The gap between AI capabilities in China and the U.S. is narrowing, with emerging models like DeepSeek and Alibaba Qwen showing competitive performance and cost efficiency [25][26]. Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - The "Artificial Intelligence Trends Report 2025" was published, emphasizing the unprecedented speed of AI technology development and its implications for the global landscape [11]. - The ByteDance Volcano Engine Force Conference is set to take place on June 11-12, 2025, focusing on cutting-edge topics such as large models and AI cloud-native technologies [28]. Market Review - The computer industry index has shown a positive trend, with notable weekly gains among specific companies, including Huijin Co. (+50.54%) and Qingyun Technology (+38.27%) [35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Kingsoft Office, Yonyou Network, Saiyi Information, Entropy Technology, and CloudWalk Technology, anticipating that AI applications will drive infrastructure development, with additional recommendations for Haiguang Information, Zhiwei Intelligent, and Lenovo Group [2][36].

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market shows short-term rates stable while long-term rates are rising, with expectations of a volatile mode for government bond futures due to fluctuating market sentiment amid trade disputes [16] - The A-share market experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3400 points and the ChiNext Index rising over 1%. The total trading volume reached 1.31 trillion, an increase of 0.14 trillion from the previous day, with over 4100 stocks rising. The market is expected to enter a volatile range with rotation among technology, dividend, and consumer sectors [20][23] - The U.S. stock market saw the Dow Jones rise by 1.05%, Nasdaq by 1.2%, and S&P 500 by 1.03%. The narrative of recession may become a focal point again as long-term U.S. Treasury yields rise, suggesting a potential buying opportunity when volatility increases [25] Group 2: Important Policies and News - Domestic policies include the removal of household registration restrictions for participating in social insurance at the place of employment, aimed at enhancing social security fairness and improving public services [40] - The retail market for new energy passenger vehicles in May reached 1.021 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, with a cumulative retail of 4.351 million units from January to May, reflecting a growth of 34.1% [40] - The total value of goods trade in China for the first five months of the year was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, indicating a sustained growth trend [40] Group 3: Currency Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1834, a decrease of 11 basis points from the previous day. The RMB is expected to appreciate significantly due to favorable impacts from U.S.-China trade relations, with a potential rise to around 7.1 [29][30] Group 4: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.07%, with sectors like live pigs, corn, and building materials leading gains, while coal, chemicals, and steel sectors declined. The overall technical structure remains bearish, suggesting a cautious approach [34]

Group 1 - The market experienced a net inflow of funds, but trading activity decreased, with total A-share trading volume at 4.84 trillion yuan, down from the previous week, and turnover rate at 5.58%, also a decline from the prior week. The total net inflow of funds was 156.42 billion yuan, indicating stronger liquidity [7][8][19] - The domestic liquidity situation showed a net withdrawal of 671.7 billion yuan in open market operations, with DR007 and R007 rates declining, and the spread between R007 and DR007 narrowing. The yield on 10-year government bonds decreased by 2 basis points, while the yield on 1-year bonds fell by 4 basis points, leading to an expansion of the yield curve spread [10][11][18] Group 2 - The issuance scale of equity funds increased to 13.75 billion yuan, up from the previous week. The top three sectors for fund accumulation were electronics, communications, and computers, while the sectors with the largest reductions were food and beverage, household appliances, and transportation [21][24][28] - The net inflow of margin financing was 7.649 billion yuan, with margin trading accounting for 8.4% of total A-share trading volume. The total number of ETF shares decreased by 750 million, with the largest inflow seen in the broad index of the CSI 300 ETF [28][29][32] Group 3 - In the primary market, there were two IPOs raising 5.007 billion yuan, while no refinancing occurred. The total amount of restricted shares that became tradable was 28.758 billion yuan, with the electronics, biomedicine, and automotive sectors having the highest amounts of unlocked shares [37][41][42] - The report highlighted that industrial capital reduced holdings by 3.18 billion yuan, with non-bank financials, coal, and household appliances being the top sectors for increased holdings, while electronics, biomedicine, and machinery equipment saw the largest reductions [38][39]

Group 1 - The overall market showed a broad increase, with micro-cap and growth stocks leading the performance, while dividend, stable, and consumer sectors lagged behind [7][9][21] - The performance of various industries was mixed, with non-ferrous metals, communication, and electronics showing the highest gains, while household appliances, food and beverage, and transportation performed the weakest [9][30] - The relative valuation of the ChiNext Index to the CSI 300 increased, indicating a rise in the relative PE and PB ratios [13][21] Group 2 - The overall valuation of broad market indices increased, with major indices exceeding the 50% historical percentile level over the past year, while the ChiNext Index is at a low valuation compared to the past year [21][30] - The valuation of various sectors is differentiated, with non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, communication, electronics, agriculture, and household appliances at near one-year lows [30][33] - From the perspective of PE and PB deviation, industries such as food and beverage, agriculture, public utilities, and household appliances are currently considered relatively cheap [33][39] Group 3 - The earnings expectations across industries were generally revised downwards, with the computer sector seeing the largest upward adjustment and the defense industry experiencing the most significant downward revision [42]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 0.2%[4] - The month-on-month CPI fell by 0.2 percentage points, aligning with seasonal trends observed over the past five and ten years[6] - Energy prices significantly impacted CPI, with a month-on-month decline of 1.7%, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the overall CPI decrease[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - China's PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in May, a larger decline than the previous month's 2.7%[4] - The month-on-month PPI fell by 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, indicating continued weak performance[26] - Production material prices were under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 4.0%, affecting the overall industrial producer price level by about 2.98 percentage points[30] Group 3: Sector Performance - Service prices showed stronger recovery compared to consumer goods, with service prices rising by 0.5% year-on-year, while consumer goods continued to decline[9] - Transportation and communication prices experienced significant month-on-month declines, with transportation fuel prices dropping by 3.7%[11] - Core CPI, excluding energy, saw an increase, indicating a recovery in non-energy consumer goods and services driven by policy support and holiday effects[25]

金 金融工程点评 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 [Table_Title] [Table_Message]2025-06-09 社会服务相对指数趋势跟踪模型效果点评 模型概述 结果评估： 区间年化收益：-2.87% 波动率（年化）：21.22% 夏普率：-0.14 最大回撤：23.32% 指数期间总回报率：-20.18% 融 工 程 点 评 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] ◼ 设计原理：模型假定标的价格走势具有很好的局部延续性，标的价格永远处 于某一趋势中，出现反转行情的持续时间明显小于趋势延续的时间，若出现 窄幅盘整的情况，亦假设其延续之前的趋势。当处于大级别的趋势之中时， 给定较短时间的观察窗口，走势将延续观察窗口内的局部趋势。而当趋势发 生反转 ...