金 金融工程点评 [Table_Title] 房地产相对指数趋势跟踪模型效果点评 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 模型概述 结果评估： 区间年化收益：2.22% 波动率（年化）：23.52% 夏普率：0.09 最大回撤：17.24% 指数期间总回报率：-26.63% [Table_Message]2025-06-05 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 模型策略适用情况总结：在 2023 年 3 月 7 日至 2023 年 6 月 2 日及 2023 年 7 月 19 日至 2023 年 11 月 10 日期间，模型表现良好，模型整体呈现上升趋势， 模型处于正收益通道；2024 年 4 月 25 日至 2024 年 9 月 13 日，模型净值整 体处于下降趋势，无法取得累计收益。跟踪 ...

2025-06-04 公司点评 增持/首次 建设工业（002265） 目标价：21.00 昨收盘：20.44 国防军工 主营业务保持稳定，"一核两翼"向新发展 走势比较 加大研发投入力度，科技创新成效显著。2024 年公司研发投入 2.79 亿元，较上年同期增长 36.29%。报告期内，公司聚焦"三化"转型，加强 系统总体、软件算法、集成控制等领域高端人才引进；专利申请受理 135 项，其中发明专利 79 项，获得省部级科技进步奖励 3 项，承德公司获评 国家"第一批重点专精特新小巨人企业"，合资公司重庆耐世特转向系统 有限公司获评国家"第六批专精特新小巨人企业"。截至 2024 年底，公 司拥有各类专利 600 多项，拥有有效发明专利 188 项，牵头和参与制定 70 余项国家及行业标准；完成"新一代轻型特种装备预先研究"、"新型 某系列外贸特品研制"等项目年度研发任务，科技创新成效显著。 盈利预测与投资评级：预计公司 2025-2027 年的净利润为 2.67 亿元、 2.69 亿元、2.73 亿元，EPS 为 0.26 元、0.26 元、0.26 元，对应 PE 为 79 倍、78 倍、77 倍，给予" ...

2025-06-04 公司点评 增持/首次 建设工业（002265） 目标价：21.00 昨收盘：20.44 国防军工 主营业务保持稳定，"一核两翼"向新发展 走势比较 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% Jun/24 Jul/24 Aug/24 Sep/24 Oct/24 Nov/24 Dec/24 Jan/25 Feb/25 Mar/25 Apr/25 May/25 建设工业 沪深300 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 10.33/4.03 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 211.15/82.39 | | 12 个月最高/最低(元) | 35.09/16.41 | 相关研究报告 证券分析师：马浩然 电话：010-88321893 E-MAIL：mahr@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190517120003 事件：公司发布 2024 年年度报告，2024 年 1-12 月实现营业收入 43.55 亿元，较上年同期增长 2.32%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润 2.60 亿元，较上年同期下降 10.70%；基本每股收益 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the outdoor industry and consumer sectors, particularly focusing on domestic brands and high-quality companies in the textile and retail sectors [3][4][8]. Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival has commenced, showcasing strong performance from domestic brands, particularly in the beauty and personal care sectors, which are expected to benefit from structural opportunities [3][4]. - The outdoor sports apparel segment is experiencing upward momentum, with several brands expanding their presence in this market, indicating a growing consumer interest in outdoor activities [4]. - The manufacturing sector is showing resilience despite fluctuating tariff policies, with leading manufacturers expected to enhance their market share [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index experienced slight declines, while the textile and apparel sector saw a weekly increase of 1.55%, outperforming the broader market [5][14]. Industry Data Tracking - Retail sales data for April showed a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, with specific categories like gold and silver jewelry seeing a significant increase of 25.3% [22][23]. - Cotton prices have slightly decreased, with the Cotlook A Index dropping by 0.7% and the Chinese cotton price index down by 0.3% [25][29]. Company Dynamics - Companies such as Anta Sports and 361° are highlighted as high-growth potential firms within the consumer sector, while others like Hailan Home and Semir Fashion are noted for their business adjustments leading to high elasticity [8]. - Recent revenue reports from Fengtai and Yuyuan indicate stable growth, with year-on-year increases of 2.7% and 10.5%, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for order growth [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Changjiu Logistics (603569) with a target price based on the last closing price of 8.12 [1][6] Core Views - The report highlights that the complete vehicle export business may drive performance growth for Changjiu Logistics in the future [1][6] - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 4.17 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 80 million RMB, up 13.11% year-on-year [4][5] - The logistics core business generated revenue of 4.15 billion RMB in 2024, with a gross profit of 470 million RMB, reflecting a gross profit margin of 97.3% [5] Financial Summary - For 2025 Q1, the company reported revenue of 1.16 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 74% [4][5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of approximately 30 million RMB for 2024, which corresponds to a dividend per share of about 0.05 RMB, representing 37.9% of the annual net profit [4] - The financial forecast indicates that operating revenue is expected to reach 4.59 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price based on the last closing price of 134.60 [1][8] Core Insights - The company has seen significant growth in the delivery of its model, the Wanjie M8, with a delivery volume of 12,116 units in May, marking a substantial increase in weekly deliveries [4][5] - The Wanjie M8 has received over 80,000 pre-orders, indicating strong market demand, while the Wanjie M9 has also achieved over 60,000 pre-orders for its 2025 model [5][8] - The establishment of a joint venture for humanoid robot development signals the company's expansion into new growth areas [5][8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 189.11 billion, 220.78 billion, and 263.83 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.26%, 16.75%, and 19.50% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 10.22 billion, 12.60 billion, and 15.51 billion for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 71.92%, 23.21%, and 23.13% [8] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 3.94 in 2024 to 9.49 in 2027, with a corresponding decrease in price-to-earnings (PE) ratio from 33.86 to 14.23 [8][12] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its production capacity with a target of 390,000 units by 2024, utilizing advanced manufacturing technologies to reduce costs and improve efficiency [7][8] - The company is also pursuing a global expansion strategy, including plans for an H-share listing to enhance its international competitiveness [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, targeting a market value of HKD 5.8 billion, which corresponds to a target price of HKD 8.57 [3]. Core Insights - The company has a strong cash flow support from its commercialized product, Selinexor, which has expanded its indications and market presence [2]. - The clinical pipeline includes ATG-022, a differentiated CLDN18.2 ADC, and ATG-037, a CD73 small molecule inhibitor, both showing promising efficacy in treating various cancers [2][3]. - The second-generation TCE platform is expected to enhance safety and efficacy, with the first product, 25H2, submitted for IND [3]. Company Overview - The company focuses on oncology and immunology, with a pipeline that includes one commercialized product and five clinical candidates [8][9]. - Selinexor, the first commercial product, has been approved in multiple Asia-Pacific markets and is expected to see significant revenue growth in 2024 [8][9]. Clinical Pipeline - The company has five clinical-stage assets, including ATG-022 (CLDN18.2 ADC) and ATG-037 (CD73), which are positioned to address unmet medical needs in oncology [11][51]. - ATG-022 has shown efficacy across various CLDN18.2 expression levels in gastric cancer patients, with ongoing clinical trials [34][39]. - ATG-037 is advancing in clinical trials for melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer, demonstrating encouraging safety and efficacy signals [51]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of HKD 92 million in 2024, a 36.7% increase year-on-year, primarily driven by Selinexor's inclusion in the medical insurance directory [23]. - The adjusted annual loss significantly narrowed from HKD 534 million in 2023 to HKD 305 million in 2024, reflecting improved operational efficiency [23]. - Cash reserves at the end of 2024 stood at HKD 900 million, sufficient to support operations for the next three years at the current spending rate [23].

| 证券分析师： | 周豫 | | --- | --- | | 分析师登记编号： | S1190523060002 | | 证券分析师： | 霍亮 | | 分析师登记编号： | S1190523070002 | | 研究助理： | 戎晓婕 | | 一般证券业务登记编号： | S1190123070050 | P2 医药行业|公司深度研究报告 证券研究报告 2025/06/04 德琪医药深度报告—— 聚焦肿瘤领域的创新先锋，TCE 2.0蓄势待发 报告摘要 德琪医药核心推荐逻辑：1） 塞利尼索已实现商业化，随着适应症扩增和上市地区增加，为公司提供稳定的现金流支撑。 2）临床管线： ATG-022是具备差异化竞争优势的CLDN18.2 ADC，CD73小分子抑制剂ATG-037在免疫检查点抑制剂耐药肿瘤中展现出积极疗效；3）早 研管线中，第二代TCE平台具备更高安全性和更强疗效，首款产品25H2递交IND。 估值和投资建议：基于NPV和DCF法，我们测算目标市值为58亿港元（汇率0.92），对应目标价为8.57港元，首次覆盖给予"买入"评级。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 ◼ ATG- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Changjiu Logistics (603569) with a target price based on the last closing price of 8.12 [1][6] Core Views - The report highlights that the complete vehicle export business may drive performance growth for Changjiu Logistics in the future [1][6] - The company achieved total operating revenue of 4.17 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 80 million RMB, up 13.11% year-on-year [4][5] - The logistics core business generated revenue of 4.15 billion RMB in 2024, with a gross profit of 470 million RMB, reflecting a gross profit margin of 97.3% [5] Financial Summary - For 2025 Q1, the company reported revenue of 1.16 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 74% [4][5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of approximately 30 million RMB for 2024, which corresponds to a dividend yield of about 0.7% based on the stock price at the time of the report [4] - The financial forecast indicates that operating revenue is expected to reach 4.59 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a general rise, with expectations that it will benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital due to low stock market volatility [4][19]. - The A-share market is showing signs of rotation, with a total trading volume of 1.15 trillion, indicating a focus on consumer sectors and a majority of stocks rising [22]. - The U.S. stock market is in a phase of slight upward movement, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices increasing by 0.51%, 0.58%, and 0.81% respectively [29]. Group 2: Asset Class Tracking - The bond market is expected to regain upward momentum as risk aversion increases, particularly if stock market volatility rises [4][19]. - The A-share market is characterized by low volatility and a cautious approach is recommended, especially if indices approach the 3000-point mark [22]. - The foreign exchange market shows the onshore RMB appreciating against the USD, with expectations of reaching around 7.1 [33]. Group 3: Sector Insights - Consumer sectors such as beauty care, beverage manufacturing, and textiles are leading the market, but overall trading volume remains insufficient for sustained growth [22]. - The commodity market is experiencing a rebound, with the Wenhua Commodity Index rising by 0.72%, although it is still in a bearish trend overall [36]. - The agricultural and high-dividend sectors are highlighted as having stronger certainty for future performance [22].