—— 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报业绩点评 维持 程培 孟熙 | 市场数据 | 2025-04-18 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 300003.SZ | | A 股收盘价(元) | 10.87 | | 上证指数 | 3276.73 | | 总股本(万股) | 188061.11 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 161609.84 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 175.67 | ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ · 医药行业 ⚫⚫ 公司点评报告 · 医药行业 E券|CGS 附录: 公司财务预测表 | 资产负债表(百万元) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 流动资产 | 8436.28 | 10340.26 | 11453.76 | 12768.24 | | 现金 | 3718.02 | 5383.28 | 6291.37 | 7448.06 | | 应收账款 | 1530.66 | 1639.89 | 1720.60 | 1795.56 | | 其它应收款 | 114.40 | 12 ...

外需环比下滑,期待新一轮增量政策 宏观周报（4 月 14-18 日） 2025 年 4 月 20 日 分析师 张迪 ☎： 010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 詹璐 ☎：0755-8345-3719 z: zhanlu @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522110001 聂天奇 ☎： 010-8092-7737 @: nietianqi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524090001 吕雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 ☑: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 赵红蕾 ☎：010-8092-7606 网: zhaohonglei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060005 于金潼 ☎：186-5320-7096 中国银河证券|CGS 网: yujintong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S013052 ...

固收研究报告 证券 CGS 地产销售同比回落,生产端 一级市场发行情况:利率债发行方面,本周发行规模整体回升,发行国债 4350 亿元、地方债 2006.2 亿元，同业存单 7099.5 亿元，国债、地方债、存单发行 规模较上周分别变化 1078.4 亿元、-13.2 亿元、812.2 亿元;按新增专项债和 新增一般债额度分别为 4.4 万亿元和 0.8 万亿元计算,本周地方债整体发行进 度达到 26.1%,新增专项债和新增一般债发行进度分别为 24.2%、36.8%。 二级市场利率表现:截至 4/20,本周 10Y-1Y 期限利差较上周回落 3.97BP, 国债收益率曲线较上周整体走平;1Y 国债收益率较上周上行 3.22BP 收于 1.43%, 10Y 国债收益率较上周下行 0.75BP 收于 1.65%。 公开市场操作及下周重要数据:本周央行通过公开市场操作净投放 2338 亿 元;截止 4/20,下周地方政府债发行规模为 1812.37 亿元,逆回购到期 8080 亿元;下周主要关注将公布的贷款市场报价利率(LPR)与 3 月服务贸易差 额。 分析师 经济数据与利率市场表现追踪（2025/4/14-2 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating to the company, indicating a performance expectation within a range of -5% to 5% relative to the benchmark index [12]. Core Insights - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with estimated revenues increasing from 4,837.84 million yuan in 2024 to 8,688.17 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.52% [6][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 181.96 million yuan in 2024 to 760.20 million yuan in 2027, showcasing a robust growth trajectory with a profit growth rate of 50.64% in 2027 [6][8]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 13.83% in 2024 to 18.71% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6][8]. Financial Forecast Summary Income Statement - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 4,837.84 million yuan in 2024 to 8,688.17 million yuan in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 26.99% in 2025 [6][8]. - The operating profit is projected to increase significantly, reaching 881.27 million yuan by 2027, with a notable recovery from a decline of 38.19% in 2024 to an increase of 82.80% in 2025 [8]. - The net profit margin is expected to rise from 3.76% in 2024 to 8.75% in 2027, reflecting improved profitability [8]. Balance Sheet - Total assets are expected to grow from 9,413.50 million yuan in 2024 to 12,927.81 million yuan in 2027, indicating a healthy expansion of the company's asset base [7]. - The company's total liabilities are projected to increase from 4,920.06 million yuan in 2024 to 7,296.35 million yuan in 2027, with a stable debt management strategy [7]. Cash Flow Statement - The operating cash flow is forecasted to turn positive by 2025, reaching 67.12 million yuan, after a negative cash flow of -380.04 million yuan in 2024 [7]. - The net cash increase is expected to stabilize, with a projected decrease of -256.37 million yuan by 2027, indicating improved cash management [7].

外需环比下滑,期待新一轮增量政策 宏观周报（4 月 14-18 日） 2025 年 4 月 20 日 分析师 张迪 ☎： 010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 詹璐 ☎：0755-8345-3719 z: zhanlu @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522110001 聂天奇 ☎： 010-8092-7737 @: nietianqi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524090001 吕雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 ☑: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 赵红蕾 ☎：010-8092-7606 网: zhaohonglei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060005 于金潼 ☎：186-5320-7096 网: yujintong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080003 研究助 ...

耘臅⥈═걾뀔劻㙨䒩ꓭ⚃䭦缩鱂둛 ——⪢槊㝕稝鰑☋ꏕ翞⽟間㷌 2025 䌑 04 劓 20 傽 呦䖦間掾 瞬汻煝疵 · ⪢槊㝕稝鰑☋ꏕ翞⽟間㷌 ⮕卥䉞 匤鱪 (010-8092-7696 *yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn ⮕卥䉞溫駘罒焺S0130522030004 潸⪸煝疵 2025-04-08╚㎼曬䌐⬮㕈ꓭ埭疿⮃┿䳀䮵䉗㐙⟥䖦 2025-04-08寤ꓭ⪝䉗㑏㴼澚㝃 2025-04-06艧 2025 䌑◝㳌䍳䫌鰑㺥労♈⛓⡽ ⟶㜩⯒漥⯈⩽楓 2025-04-03㸉瞏⪸瓭⬐⮄䉗㐙ꏕ翞뀔劻 2025-04-032025 䌑◝㳌䍳 A 艧䫌鰑㺥労낊呬⮘ 䰄㐭銝ꏕ翞 2025-03-23艧䉗㐙 2025 䌑♨匡鉿䝠䬏闌 2025-03-23╅ⶬ锟訒呦䖦⢏駦劔〘◲ 2025-03-20耘臅⥈ 3 劓駖䛉⚷駖掾駬耘臅⥈䭶┬ 罥銩⭀ꅌꨴ3 劓⬑駖㠁✇ꓨ㗛鰑分㴼⚃ꆒꀀ 2025-03-17վ䳀䮵巆鰆┺뀉鉿Ⲙ做呿տ闌騣巆鰆愗 ⲇꓤ侒䭰䑜䫌鰑做⻔ 2025-03-10╚㎼艧䉗⺉◜⛓⡽婞䛨撬ꓨ卐 2025-03-05㸉 A 艧䉗㐙䫌鰑溸⼅獏2025 䌑侓䍠 䈰✑䫟⼴ꓤ侒〘◲ꓨ锢⟥⺵ 2025-02-21ⷂ⻔ ...

Key Points - The report highlights that China's GDP for Q1 2025 reached 318,758 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2%. The industrial sector grew by 6.3%, significantly contributing to GDP growth, while the information transmission, software, and IT services sectors saw a remarkable growth of 10.3% [2][4][12] - The report indicates that the real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with new residential sales area declining by only 3.0% year-on-year in the first three months of 2025, a smaller drop compared to previous months. The sales value also decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, reflecting a narrowing decline [5][10] - The report notes that the U.S. retail sales in March increased by 1.4%, marking the largest growth since January 2023, while initial jobless claims were at 215,000, indicating a tight labor market. However, concerns about future economic growth persist due to rising costs and policy uncertainties [15][16] - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.30% during the week, while the technology index fell by 0.27%. The financial, materials, and comprehensive sectors led the gains, with increases of 4.39%, 4.34%, and 4.07% respectively [16][19] - The report suggests that the current valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is at a historically low level, with the Hang Seng Index's PE and PB ratios at 9.6 times and 1.02 times, respectively. This indicates potential investment value, particularly in sectors with lower trade dependency and higher dividend yields, such as finance, energy, and utilities [29][38][49]

策略研究 · 周度报告 A 股震荡蓄势,聚焦业绩线索 核心观点: 分析师 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 研究助理:王雪莹 相关研究 2025-04-08, 中国版平准基金横空出世提振市场信 心 2025-04-08, 汇金入市,坚定看多 2025-04-03，"对等关税"冲击市场配置预期 2025-04-03, 港股 2025 年二季度投资展望: 从估值 修复到盈利兑现 2025-04-02，2025年二季度 A 股投资展望：风格切 换,均衡配置 2025-03-22，港股市场 2025 年以来行情拆解 2025-03-21，"东升西落"核心假设有哪些? 2025-03-17, 消费潜力释放指引投资方向 -- 《提振 消费专项行动方案》解读 2025-03-09，中国股市叙事：估值正悄然重构 2025-03-05,对A 股市场投资的启示:2025年政府 工作报告释放哪些重要信号? 2025-02-21，南向资金与国际资金结构同频还是分 肢3 2025-02-19，DeepSeek 冲击波：A ...

策略研究 · 周度报告 2025 年 04 月 20 日 核心观点: 分析师 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 研究助理:周美丽 相关研究 2025-04-08, 汇金入市,坚定看多 2025-04-02, 2025年二季度 A 股投资展望: 风格切换, 均衡配置 2025-03-23，港股市场 2025 年以来行情拆解 2025-02-21, 南向资金与国际资金结构同频还是分歧? 2025-02-13，地方两会对 A 股投资结构有哪些启示? 2025-02-04，春节假期热点跟踪：海外市场多变局，国 内消费掀热潮 2024-12-31, 2024年全球大类资产投资展望: 变局·择 机 2024-12-27, 2025年港股投资展望:潮涌·博弈 2024-12-26，2025年 A 股市场投资展望：重构·聚势 2024-12-19，美联储 12 月议息会议点评报告：美联储 传递节奏更换的渐进式降息信号 2024-12-13，中央经济工作会议对投资的启示 2024-11-19, 央国企改革助推市场 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is projected to experience a slight decline in revenue in 2025, with an estimated revenue of 4438.51 million yuan, down from 4471.20 million yuan in 2024, representing a decrease of 0.73% [4][7] - Net profit is expected to increase slightly to 1216.83 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 1.87% compared to 1194.45 million yuan in 2024 [4][7] - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 65.61% in 2025, slightly up from 65.41% in 2024 [4][7] - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth in 2026 and 2027, with projected increases of 14.45% and 12.16%, respectively [4][7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 4471.20 million yuan in 2024, 4438.51 million yuan in 2025, 5079.98 million yuan in 2026, and 5697.50 million yuan in 2027 [4][7] - The net profit forecast shows a gradual increase from 1194.45 million yuan in 2024 to 1610.93 million yuan in 2027 [4][7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 2.09 yuan in 2024 to 2.82 yuan in 2027 [4][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 20.02 in 2024 to 14.84 in 2027, indicating potential valuation improvement [4][7] Balance Sheet Overview - Total assets are expected to grow from 11875.07 million yuan in 2024 to 13594.79 million yuan in 2027 [6][7] - Current assets are projected to increase from 6542.77 million yuan in 2024 to 9562.75 million yuan in 2027 [6][7] - The company's total liabilities are forecasted to decrease from 3183.27 million yuan in 2024 to 3211.52 million yuan in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [6][7] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is expected to rise from 1309.28 million yuan in 2024 to 2053.43 million yuan in 2027 [6][7] - The net cash increase is projected to turn positive in 2025, with an expected increase of 497.15 million yuan [6][7] - The company is anticipated to maintain a healthy cash flow position, with significant cash reserves growing from 465.37 million yuan in 2024 to 3129.50 million yuan in 2027 [6][7]